Russ
04-06-2009, 11:48 PM
NBA.com has posted this article on the Spurs' chances without Manu:
http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700035181
No Manu, What Now?
By Dave McMenamin
On one of the three days all season long when there are zero games on the NBA schedule (the others were Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day), the basketball world was supposed to stop and pay homage to its past (the 2009 Hall of Fame inductees were announced today) and its future (the NCAA Men’s Championship Game is played tonight).
Too bad the San Antonio Spurs’ suddenly murky present just took center stage.
The team announced that seven-year veteran Manu Ginobili will miss the rest of the regular season and the playoffs because of “an increased marrow edema and a stress fracture in his right distal fibula.” Ginobili felt stiffness in his lower right leg during Sunday’s Spurs-Cavaliers game.
After scoring just four points on 2-for-9 shooting in the 20-point loss to the Cavs, Ginobili decided to have the leg examined. A CT scan and MRI on Monday revealed the injury.
Instead of saluting The Admiral on the day that David Robinson, the personification of a class act, got his call to the hall, Spurs fans are left agonizing over the loss of El Contusion.
For any San Antonio supporter who was sitting on the “Well the Spurs always win the championship when it’s an odd year” superstition in his back pocket, that belief was incumbent upon another odd number: three. As in, the only way the Spurs were going to be able to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June was if their Big Three was on the floor together.
Talking about The Finals right now for San Antonio would be getting so far ahead of ourselves that we might as well be talking about that football team in Oakland that also wears silver and black making the playoffs next season before we even see who they take in the draft.
HOW WILL THIS IMPACT SAN ANTONIO'S PLAYOFF SEEDING?
The Spurs lead Houston by half game for the No. 3 seed with six games to play. But another way to look at it is that they’re two games behind Denver for the No. 2 seed and also just two games ahead of New Orleans which is the current No. 6 seed.
They will miss Ginobili’s 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.5 steals per game averages and his presence in the starting lineup, but there are a couple of silver linings for the Spurs here. One, they have a capable man in Roger Mason to fill in because Ginoboli’s ankle already kept him out of 32 games this season. Mason is averaging 11.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 0.5 steals per game, so the impact he has on the game is sort of like Ginobili lite, but he’s still a confident player who has the trust of his teammates after hitting four-game winning shots this season.
Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk either (at Oklahoma City, Portland, Utah, at Sacramento, at Golden State, New Orleans) and with three of those coming against playoff teams, another against the Thunder who have their number and one more against the Warriors who have won three straight there’s no telling how much they’ll slip.
CAN THE SPURS GET OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WITHOUT HIM?
San Antonio was 32-12 with Ginobili in the lineup this year and 17-15 without him. If they hold steadfast at No. 3 and New Orleans remains at No. 6, they’ll have a shot at advancing past the first round, especially if Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic and James Posey aren’t entirely healthy come playoff time.
If they fall to No. 4 or 5 and have to face Houston which has the size in Yao Ming to defend Tim Duncan and the perimeter defense in Shane Battier and Ron Artest to stay out on Mason and Michael Finley, plus the feisty point guard tandem of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry to stay in front of Tony Parker, the Spurs might be gone’ fishin’ the earliest they have since 2000 when they lost to the Suns 3-1 in the first round.
If they end up matched up with Portland, their experience could carry them past the Blazers’ not-quite-ready-for-prime-time players, or it could be just the opposite where young legs run them out of the building, as was the case a couple seasons ago when the baby Bulls swept the defending-champion Heat out of the playoffs.
The Spurs are 2-2 against the Rockets and 1-2 against the Hornets and Blazers (with a game remaining against each of the latter) during the regular season this year.
WILL THEY LOOK TO ADD ANOTHER PLAYER?
Taking Mason from the bench to the starting lineup will create a hole in the roster. Mason’s playing time as a reserve can be absorbed in a variety of ways. I would give rookie George Hill a second chance. The backup point guards minutes have been on a steady decline from November (24.1) to February (18.6) to March (15.5) to April (9.5) but head coach Gregg Popovich already lauded Hill’s defense early on in the season and he gives them some extra athleticism on a team that already gives major minutes to the robotic Duncan, Finley and Matt Bonner.
Bruce Bowen has also fallen out of Pop’s rotation and could be called on again, as could Ime Udoka.
To get the roster size back up to 12 healthy bodies, look for the Spurs to call up Ian Mahinmi or Malik Hairston from the Austin Toros, San Antonio’s D-League affiliate.
Don't forget, San Antonio has two former Finals MVPs in Duncan and Parker it can lean a little heavier on and Popovich knows how to manage his team as well as any coach in the league. Sure, Duncan has sore knees that have kept him out of the tail end of back-to-backs, but he's still Tim Duncan. Give that man a mind-over-matter challenge for the next two months and see what happens. There are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, afterall.
The Spurs were a Derek Fisher no-call away from being tied with the Lakers 2-2 in the Western Conference Finals last season. That was with Ginobili limping on his other leg and shooting just 42.2 percent from the field while not being able to move laterally well enough to be effective on defense. Maybe filling Ginobili's role by committee won't be such a bad thing.
SCOUT'S TAKE
Here is how one Western Conference scout sees the impact of Ginobili’s absence playing out:
“Luck with staying healthy through the season and into the playoffs is probably as much as an ingredient to success as anything else. The misfortune of losing a player of his magnitude is a really good example of it.
“The players on that team over the years, they surrounded one of the best forwards in the league in Duncan with great shooters and [Ginobili] represented to me, besides Parker, one of the best small forwards, no less best players, in the league in getting to the rim and penetrating that. Losing that will no doubt make a dramatic impact on their success.
“I don’t think you can ever really challenge the heart that this team has had and perseverance over the years so, if anyone’s faced adversity and knows what it takes to win, it’s them. That alone could get them through [past the first round]. But, you got a lot of x-factors. You got a very stacked Western Conference. You got a Trail Blazer team that, if they are to advance in the playoffs, would be one of the youngest teams in the last 20 years to do so and know no fear. It’s not a time to go in less than 100 percent for a veteran Spurs club. The conditions couldn’t be worse. You have incredible depth when you have the Mavericks fighting for an eighth seed in the playoffs. You know that every round is going to be a seven-game series.
“Every team has a player or two, well every great team has a player or two, that keeps the defense honest when it comes to being able to cheat on double teams and rotate back. Who are you going to play off of when you have Duncan and Ginobili out there? In his case, he was an inside and outside threat, and again you’re talking about one of the guys who would be ranked in the top five in the league for his ability to do his basketball skillset and that’s get to the hole. Not to mention shoot outside too. With that, that’s a big loss.”
http://my.nba.com/thread.jspa?threadID=5700035181
No Manu, What Now?
By Dave McMenamin
On one of the three days all season long when there are zero games on the NBA schedule (the others were Christmas Eve and New Year’s Day), the basketball world was supposed to stop and pay homage to its past (the 2009 Hall of Fame inductees were announced today) and its future (the NCAA Men’s Championship Game is played tonight).
Too bad the San Antonio Spurs’ suddenly murky present just took center stage.
The team announced that seven-year veteran Manu Ginobili will miss the rest of the regular season and the playoffs because of “an increased marrow edema and a stress fracture in his right distal fibula.” Ginobili felt stiffness in his lower right leg during Sunday’s Spurs-Cavaliers game.
After scoring just four points on 2-for-9 shooting in the 20-point loss to the Cavs, Ginobili decided to have the leg examined. A CT scan and MRI on Monday revealed the injury.
Instead of saluting The Admiral on the day that David Robinson, the personification of a class act, got his call to the hall, Spurs fans are left agonizing over the loss of El Contusion.
For any San Antonio supporter who was sitting on the “Well the Spurs always win the championship when it’s an odd year” superstition in his back pocket, that belief was incumbent upon another odd number: three. As in, the only way the Spurs were going to be able to hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy in June was if their Big Three was on the floor together.
Talking about The Finals right now for San Antonio would be getting so far ahead of ourselves that we might as well be talking about that football team in Oakland that also wears silver and black making the playoffs next season before we even see who they take in the draft.
HOW WILL THIS IMPACT SAN ANTONIO'S PLAYOFF SEEDING?
The Spurs lead Houston by half game for the No. 3 seed with six games to play. But another way to look at it is that they’re two games behind Denver for the No. 2 seed and also just two games ahead of New Orleans which is the current No. 6 seed.
They will miss Ginobili’s 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.5 steals per game averages and his presence in the starting lineup, but there are a couple of silver linings for the Spurs here. One, they have a capable man in Roger Mason to fill in because Ginoboli’s ankle already kept him out of 32 games this season. Mason is averaging 11.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 0.5 steals per game, so the impact he has on the game is sort of like Ginobili lite, but he’s still a confident player who has the trust of his teammates after hitting four-game winning shots this season.
Their remaining schedule is no cakewalk either (at Oklahoma City, Portland, Utah, at Sacramento, at Golden State, New Orleans) and with three of those coming against playoff teams, another against the Thunder who have their number and one more against the Warriors who have won three straight there’s no telling how much they’ll slip.
CAN THE SPURS GET OUT OF THE FIRST ROUND WITHOUT HIM?
San Antonio was 32-12 with Ginobili in the lineup this year and 17-15 without him. If they hold steadfast at No. 3 and New Orleans remains at No. 6, they’ll have a shot at advancing past the first round, especially if Tyson Chandler, Peja Stojakovic and James Posey aren’t entirely healthy come playoff time.
If they fall to No. 4 or 5 and have to face Houston which has the size in Yao Ming to defend Tim Duncan and the perimeter defense in Shane Battier and Ron Artest to stay out on Mason and Michael Finley, plus the feisty point guard tandem of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry to stay in front of Tony Parker, the Spurs might be gone’ fishin’ the earliest they have since 2000 when they lost to the Suns 3-1 in the first round.
If they end up matched up with Portland, their experience could carry them past the Blazers’ not-quite-ready-for-prime-time players, or it could be just the opposite where young legs run them out of the building, as was the case a couple seasons ago when the baby Bulls swept the defending-champion Heat out of the playoffs.
The Spurs are 2-2 against the Rockets and 1-2 against the Hornets and Blazers (with a game remaining against each of the latter) during the regular season this year.
WILL THEY LOOK TO ADD ANOTHER PLAYER?
Taking Mason from the bench to the starting lineup will create a hole in the roster. Mason’s playing time as a reserve can be absorbed in a variety of ways. I would give rookie George Hill a second chance. The backup point guards minutes have been on a steady decline from November (24.1) to February (18.6) to March (15.5) to April (9.5) but head coach Gregg Popovich already lauded Hill’s defense early on in the season and he gives them some extra athleticism on a team that already gives major minutes to the robotic Duncan, Finley and Matt Bonner.
Bruce Bowen has also fallen out of Pop’s rotation and could be called on again, as could Ime Udoka.
To get the roster size back up to 12 healthy bodies, look for the Spurs to call up Ian Mahinmi or Malik Hairston from the Austin Toros, San Antonio’s D-League affiliate.
Don't forget, San Antonio has two former Finals MVPs in Duncan and Parker it can lean a little heavier on and Popovich knows how to manage his team as well as any coach in the league. Sure, Duncan has sore knees that have kept him out of the tail end of back-to-backs, but he's still Tim Duncan. Give that man a mind-over-matter challenge for the next two months and see what happens. There are no back-to-backs in the playoffs, afterall.
The Spurs were a Derek Fisher no-call away from being tied with the Lakers 2-2 in the Western Conference Finals last season. That was with Ginobili limping on his other leg and shooting just 42.2 percent from the field while not being able to move laterally well enough to be effective on defense. Maybe filling Ginobili's role by committee won't be such a bad thing.
SCOUT'S TAKE
Here is how one Western Conference scout sees the impact of Ginobili’s absence playing out:
“Luck with staying healthy through the season and into the playoffs is probably as much as an ingredient to success as anything else. The misfortune of losing a player of his magnitude is a really good example of it.
“The players on that team over the years, they surrounded one of the best forwards in the league in Duncan with great shooters and [Ginobili] represented to me, besides Parker, one of the best small forwards, no less best players, in the league in getting to the rim and penetrating that. Losing that will no doubt make a dramatic impact on their success.
“I don’t think you can ever really challenge the heart that this team has had and perseverance over the years so, if anyone’s faced adversity and knows what it takes to win, it’s them. That alone could get them through [past the first round]. But, you got a lot of x-factors. You got a very stacked Western Conference. You got a Trail Blazer team that, if they are to advance in the playoffs, would be one of the youngest teams in the last 20 years to do so and know no fear. It’s not a time to go in less than 100 percent for a veteran Spurs club. The conditions couldn’t be worse. You have incredible depth when you have the Mavericks fighting for an eighth seed in the playoffs. You know that every round is going to be a seven-game series.
“Every team has a player or two, well every great team has a player or two, that keeps the defense honest when it comes to being able to cheat on double teams and rotate back. Who are you going to play off of when you have Duncan and Ginobili out there? In his case, he was an inside and outside threat, and again you’re talking about one of the guys who would be ranked in the top five in the league for his ability to do his basketball skillset and that’s get to the hole. Not to mention shoot outside too. With that, that’s a big loss.”