View Full Version : What are the chances for the spurs to win it all ?
so, seeing all the pessimism after manu's injury has been revealed, i'd like to know what are, for you, the chances of the Spurs to win it all this year again.
hater
04-07-2009, 01:29 PM
I have a better chance to win Dancing with the Stars
timvp
04-07-2009, 01:39 PM
Somewhere between 0% and 1%. Then again, if the 2006 Heat . . .
And this is the Spurs were talking about. Quatre anneaux, chiennes.
Slomo
04-07-2009, 01:41 PM
... Quatre anneaux, chiennes.
:lmao
Thanks, I needed the laugh!
ElNono
04-07-2009, 01:42 PM
To be honest, just as long as TD has enough time to rest between games, and his knees are not aching that much, I like our chances against pretty much every west team not named the Lakers.
Somewhere between 0% and 1%.
ouch. you really think if we play these PO an hundred times, there wouldn't be any time where we could pass LA and whoever we would meet in the PO ?
And this is the Spurs were talking about. Quatre anneaux, chiennes.
great attempt of french :lol but that sounds weird
DPG21920
04-07-2009, 01:48 PM
ouch. you really think if we play these PO an hundred times, there wouldn't be any time where we could pass LA and whoever we would meet in the PO ?
great try of french :lol but that sounds weird
that is what google can do to you.
oh, and timvp, isn't there any possibily to edit my poll in order to make the voters names appear in their choice ? i thought i made it in the poll options. not a big deal otherwise.
ManuTim_best of Fwiendz
04-07-2009, 01:52 PM
Spurs are not right there with the best teams at all now--and we were still struggling to gel and run on all cylinders WITH Manu.
I believed with our whole team we could have been right there....
If Pop manages to come up with a playoff scheme that can get the Spurs to still be in contention for the Finals, he'll have impressed me once again. I hope we make it to the WCF.
Brazil
04-07-2009, 01:53 PM
Quatre anneaux, chiennes.
timvp in French it would be 4 bagues salopes !
Strike
04-07-2009, 01:54 PM
The chances are slim to none. Tim and Tony both have to have the playoff runs of their lives, the defense needs to pick up tremendously, and it wouldn't hurt to have a few extra calls go our way.
Slim as a the chance may be, there is always a chance. If the Red Sox can come back from 3-0 against the Yankees, there is always a chance.
Kori Ellis
04-07-2009, 01:57 PM
oh, and timvp, isn't there any possibily to edit my poll in order to make the voters names appear in their choice ? i thought i made it in the poll options. not a big deal otherwise.
I don't think we can change it after it's set that way.
I didn't think the Spurs had much of a chance this year, even with Manu. Without Manu, I'm going to say 8% :lol
I don't think we can change it after it's set that way.
ok, thanks. once again, not a big deal.
Ditty
04-07-2009, 01:59 PM
any team can win on any given day
i believe
CosmicCowboy
04-07-2009, 02:00 PM
I don't think they are gonna make it out of the second round this year. *sigh*
antgomez2009
04-07-2009, 02:00 PM
they are still a good TEAM!....they have TIM DUNCAN, and tony parker, and they are the underdogs!!!...as a basketball player myself, that adds to my TANK!! knowing the whole world is counting us out before the dam playoffs begins!!....F' all the 'doubters', TIM is fixing to put a show for you all this playoffs.
The chances are slim to none. Tim and Tony both have to have the playoff runs of their lives
tony could have since he is at his best level ever.
for tim, i would take 99,03,05,07 Tim. and even most of the others years where we didn't win it all. the usual PO Tim would yet be awesome.
the defense needs to pick up tremendously
the extra motivation resulting from adversity could provide that. i believe.
Slim as a the chance may be, there is always a chance.
:toast
SPURS50
04-07-2009, 02:02 PM
The Spurs chances B4 Ginobili got hurt weren't the greatest, But now i'd say 1 in 16. The bright side is we have a better shoot than the Suns! Just playing.:lol
Dr. Gonzo
04-07-2009, 02:04 PM
they are still a good TEAM!....they have TIM DUNCAN, and tony parker, and they are the underdogs!!!...as a basketball player myself, that adds to my TANK!! knowing the whole world is counting us out before the dam playoffs begins!!....F' all the 'doubters', TIM is fixing to put a show for you all this playoffs.
He would put on a show if his knee wasn't shit.
The Spurs had little chance with a healthy everybody but now they have zero chance.
HarlemHeat37
04-07-2009, 02:04 PM
0%..we'll be back next year though, if the front office makes the smart moves..
duncan228
04-07-2009, 02:10 PM
...they have TIM DUNCAN...
They have an injured Duncan. It remains to be seen how well he'll be able to play. I don't expect Playoff Duncan, he just doesn't look that strong at the moment. I hope I'm wrong.
They have an injured Duncan. It remains to be seen how well he'll be able to play. I don't expect Playoff Duncan, he just doesn't look that strong at the moment. I hope I'm wrong.
i guess it's safe to say that beside tony playing at his current level, we'll definitely need the 20-10 Tim at the very least. a 25-14 Tim could be needed though.
spurtech09
04-07-2009, 03:03 PM
I say anything could happen in the play offs......the spurs have a good chance to do something in the play-offs....even with manu out and timmy d with his knees I still like spurs chances
peter_slb
04-07-2009, 04:28 PM
With Duncan at 100%, I would say 20/30%, this way 0%, and if there's a chance of Duncan get worse by playing the playoffs, he shouldn't do it.
mexicanjunior
04-07-2009, 04:32 PM
0%: let's think about next year.
With the right moves, the Spurs could get themselves back into the picture next year. It all depends on how much the Spurs FO wants to win as opposed to how much they can reap in luxury tax benefits...
SA210
04-07-2009, 04:33 PM
I want to change my vote to over 50%!
spursfan1000
04-07-2009, 04:35 PM
I voted 1-10 %. Guys don't count out the Spurs. Even though Manu is a big part of our team we have managed to beat alot of teams this year without him including the Boston Celtics in Boston. Duncan and Parker will make some noise in the playoffs.
:flag:
mexicanjunior
04-07-2009, 04:39 PM
I voted 1-10 %. Guys don't count out the Spurs. Even though Manu is a big part of our team we have managed to beat alot of teams this year without him including the Boston Celtics in Boston.
http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=290208002
Manu had 19-3-3 that game...
FvckMavs
04-07-2009, 04:48 PM
Less than 1% if TD is not 100%.
We need 100% TD + 100% TP + lots of luck.
ulosturedge
04-07-2009, 04:58 PM
So many things have to go our way for us even to have a chance lol. First we need Duncan's knees to come back. Then we need our perimeter players to shoot the lights out during the playoffs. We need the Lakers to somehow get upset so we don't have to play them. We need Cavs to get upset. We need to be playing some steroidal offense and playing with 120% effort on defense the entire way. And that is the 1% chance I voted for. I believe in miracles >.>.
So many things have to go our way for us even to have a chance lol. First we need Duncan's knees to come back. Then we need our perimeter players to shoot the lights out during the playoffs. We need the Lakers to somehow get upset so we don't have to play them. We need Cavs to get upset. We need to be playing some steroidal offense and playing with 120% effort on defense the entire way. And that is the 1% chance I voted for. I believe in miracles >.>.
:lol a lot of efforts to earn this 1 %
Obstructed_View
04-07-2009, 05:47 PM
My pessimism is more related to Pop than Ginobili. I still say that this team has enough talent to win if they play well together. I don't see the coach allowing that to happen.
SA210
04-07-2009, 05:48 PM
My pessimism is more related to Pop than Ginobili. I still say that this team has enough talent to win if they play well together. I don't see the coach allowing that to happen.
This is exactly the way I feel.
Mavs<Spurs
04-07-2009, 06:35 PM
Somewhere between 0% and 1%. Then again, if the 2006 Heat . . .
And this is the Spurs were talking about. Quatre anneaux, chiennes.
Closer to zero rather than one.
It's questionable whether we can win in any round, doubtful that we can win round 2 and simply insane to think that we have any chance at all to beat the Lakers.
It was doubtful that we could beat the Lakers even if Manu was healthy.
With Tim perfectly healthy and Tony perfectly healthy and Manu perfectly healthy, then I think that we could beat the Lakers. But with Tim at 60 % (like now), then even with a healthy Manu and a healthy Tony, we had very little shot.
:flag:
it was against a bad team, but i still feel a little bit better after the OKC game.
seeing bruce play and gooden doing well is great.
DespЏrado
04-08-2009, 01:51 AM
Like I've been saying in some other threads, I still believe we might have a decent chance if the Spurs reshape the way they play.
I give us a solid 33% chance to beat the Lakers.
*It will take Gooden filling every gap that the Spurs have in the paint.
*All out dominance from Duncan (something that looks very iffy at this point.)
*Bowen has to play and he has to be the stopper he once was and he has to knock down 45% of his threes.
*Finley and Mason have to hit around 48% of their threes in the "big" games.
*Parker has to be the best point guard on the planet for the entire playoffs.
That is definitely achievable. But there is no margin for error.
I think the indicator of this kind of performance is that if the Spurs lose a single game one in any series they will lose that series.
baseline bum
04-08-2009, 01:55 AM
I picked 1%. Pretty hard to justify anything higher with no Manu and Duncan at 60%.
rayray2k8
04-08-2009, 02:00 AM
A lot of injuries would need to happen around the NBA in order for that to happen. :lol
Doubt that it will.
Chances should be below 10%
mathbzh
04-08-2009, 07:28 AM
1-10%
It will not be easy but IMO we have a realistic chance to go to the WCF.
Then we should have no chance... but who knows, anything can happen when you have two series left.
I would also say that the Spurs dynasty is over.
We should still have a shot at a championship in the next 2/3 years, but we will not dominate as we used to.
TDomination
04-08-2009, 10:15 AM
Between 1-10%.
We are not expected to do anything at this point. But, I would never count them out. Especially with the addition of Gooden.
mathbzh
04-08-2009, 10:28 AM
Just one thing, the proposed % are not realistic.
If you consider the finals will be a 50/50 matchup between the west and the east (the odds should not be much different than that). You have 50% chance of winning a championship between LA, Denver, Houston, Spurs, Portland, NO, Utah, Dallas.
I admit Dallas or NO have almost no chance but still, a 10% chance to win it all would be great and a 30% chance would be the best in the league.
polandprzem
04-08-2009, 10:30 AM
I'm optimistic
polled 1%
Just one thing, the proposed % are not realistic.
If you consider the finals will be a 50/50 matchup between the west and the east (the odds should not be much different than that). You have 50% chance of winning a championship between LA, Denver, Houston, Spurs, Portland, NO, Utah, Dallas.
I admit Dallas or NO have almost no chance but still, a 10% chance to win it all would be great and a 30% chance would be the best in the league.
i don't really agree even if i understand your point.
if 10 % of chance to win it all would be such a great odd, there wouldn't have any mutiple winner, like the spurs or LA recently.
since we've won it 50 % of the times since 2003 (3 times of 6), i guess that either we were a "50 % of chances to win it all" team these last years, or we were really lucky and we overrachieved.
and i guess it's safe to say that the 90's jordan bulls had more than 50 % of chances to win it all. way more even.
Still, it's not false to say that this year, it seems there are a lot of true contenders and that should share the odds of winning it all. but you have to realize that's often the case before the PO. but after, you often realize that some teams were just not for real. that's why there aren't so many NBA champions. we'll see what happen.
mathbzh
04-08-2009, 10:44 AM
i don't really agree even if i understand your point.
if 10 % of chance to win it all would be such a great odd, there wouldn't have any mutiple winner, like the spurs or LA recently.
since we've won it 50 % of the times since 2003 (3 times of 6), i guess that either we were a "50 % of chances to win it all" team these last year, or we were really lucky and we overrachieved.
and i guess it's safe to say that the 90's jordan bulls had more than 50 % of chances to win it all. way more even.
I am talking about this year.
Obviously the best team has the better chance. This year it is probably the Lakers or the Cavs.
The best team in the 90 was the Bulls with a wide margin so you may be right with your 50%.
The best team from 1999 to 2007 was the best team from the West (Lakers or Spurs) with Detroit and Miami being the statistical exception.
So it is likely we had a great chance.
But this year the balance of power is different. The Laker, Cavs, Celtics have a legit chance to win it all. A bunch of other team including the Spurs have a shot (but very tinny). I guess no team has more than a 30% shot at winning it all unless the Lakers OR Cavs are way better than expected.
I am talking about this year.
Obviously the best team has the better chance. This year it is probably the Lakers or the Cavs.
The best team in the 90 was the Bulls with a wide margin so you may be right with your 50%.
The best team from 1999 to 2007 was the best team from the West (Lakers or Spurs) with Detroit and Miami being the statistical exception.
So it is likely we had a great chance.
But this year the balance of power is different. The Laker, Cavs, Celtics have a legit chance to win it all. A bunch of other team including the Spurs have a shot (but very tinny). I guess no team has more than a 30% shot at winning it all unless the Lakers OR Cavs are way better than expected.
i just edited my post. but you still got a valid point. but you'll see some teams will fall under pressure. As usual.
i guess a lot of people thought the Spurs-Cleveland serie from 2007 was 60-40 and you realize after that the cavs had no real chance.
but you're right by saying that 30 % of chance to win it all is still great and that 10 % is yet a good thing.
i think it tells a lot about how spoiled the spurs fans are. we expect the win, nothing else.
Spurs still have a good chance to win the championship this year - only Pop's coaching could mess it up to where there is "just no chance."
I approve of his coaching and rotations last night. Bowen got lots of PT and thats what we need to win.
angel_luv
04-08-2009, 10:50 AM
between 1-10 %: That shouldn't be our year. but i won't yet bury the spurs
It would be miraculous is we won. I believe in miracles. Let's give it a go.
:)
rascal
04-08-2009, 11:19 AM
Just one thing, the proposed % are not realistic.
If you consider the finals will be a 50/50 matchup between the west and the east (the odds should not be much different than that). You have 50% chance of winning a championship between LA, Denver, Houston, Spurs, Portland, NO, Utah, Dallas.
I admit Dallas or NO have almost no chance but still, a 10% chance to win it all would be great and a 30% chance would be the best in the league.
The finals this year will not be 50/50. The lakers are most likely to advance and will be favored unless they suffer an injury in the last week. There will be a favorite and that team will have the higher % to win. All the teams will have odds to win before the playoffs start. Check with Vegas and those odds will reflect the percentages as posted in this thread or probability of winning the championship.
Another point the Vegas odds are the odds on how they expect people to bet. Team favorites like the lakers and Celtics and Dallas in football will have odds that push the betting line towards them so as close as possible equal money gets bet on each side.
Obstructed_View
04-08-2009, 01:35 PM
I believed until I saw last night's game. If Finley is starting, and is also the backup point guard, and Hill and Hairston are getting no minutes, the Spurs are fucked.
mazerrackham
04-08-2009, 01:56 PM
the chances are NEVER 0% anyone who knows ANYTHING about statistics knows that, shame on all you people that put 0%. Not only are you shaming fans, you're shaming your intellect by not realizing that even if the Sacramento Kings were in the playoffs, they'd have an inkling of a chance to win it all.
dbestpro
04-08-2009, 02:08 PM
I have a better chance to win Dancing with the Stars
Congratulations! The Spurs are in the dance so I assume you must have been invited to dance.
HarlemHeat37
04-08-2009, 02:11 PM
the main reason I have the chances at 0% is because we're going to have Jacque Vaughn on the playoff roster..seriously, Jacque Vaughn..
George Gervin's Afro
04-08-2009, 02:14 PM
1-10%
mazerrackham
04-08-2009, 02:14 PM
the main reason I have the chances at 0% is because we're going to have Jacque Vaughn on the playoff roster..seriously, Jacque Vaughn..
I hate Jacque Vaughn getting playing time as much as most spurs fans, but I'm also an engineer, so I'm mathematically inclined. Even assuming the worst case scenario, the Spurs chances are > 0% as are ANY team that makes the playoffs.
just curious.
who was the most surprising NBA champ ? the more unexpected and/or with a low seed.
DespЏrado
04-08-2009, 06:26 PM
just curious.
who was the most surprising NBA champ ? the more unexpected and/or with a low seed.
Going back through the last decade:
Miami beating Dallas
Detroit beating the Lakers
Houston beating (the Spurs then Orlando)
But there are rarely upsets in a seven game series. The last great upsets were Miami coming back from a huge deficit, the 7th seeded 99 Knicks making it to the finals, and the Denver Nuggets beating the Kemp/Payton Sonics.
Season is done. No money for new guys. No 1st rnd picks. Next season is another season with old as shit players, and praying for no injuries during whole year. That`s sad but thats the only thing left from Spurs
In my expert opnion, I think the Spurs will suprise everybody and win it all this year. This is CIA Pop to the FULLEST he teh whole world tricked.
Going back through the last decade:
Miami beating Dallas
Detroit beating the Lakers
Houston beating (the Spurs then Orlando)
But there are rarely upsets in a seven game series. The last great upsets were Miami coming back from a huge deficit, the 7th seeded 99 Knicks making it to the finals, and the Denver Nuggets beating the Kemp/Payton Sonics.
yes, but what about about some teams who won it all with very low seeding ?
Miami was 2nd in the East in 2006 IIRC even if to beat the Pistons and the west champ was not expected for them.
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