duncan228
04-08-2009, 12:35 PM
Questions to ponder in NBA's final week (http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=536504)
Sean Deveney
You play nearly six months worth of basketball over the course of the NBA's regular season, and yet, when you come down to the final week, you still find yourself sitting on questions aplenty. Five pretty big ones come to mind ...
1. Who's going to challenge the Lakers in the West?
The injury to Manu Ginobili is obviously a huge blow to the Spurs, not just in terms of the stats he is able to put up, but in terms of his energy level, his defense and his overall ability to annoy opponents into submission over the course of a seven-game series. His replacement, Roger Mason Jr., has had some huge games for San Antonio, but he is light on playoff experience and has struggled in the second half of the season. We can likely cross out that expected Spurs-Lakers conference final.
Denver, in good shape for the No. 2 seed in the West, would be the logical challenger to the Lakers -- and, in a pleasant coincidence, the two teams play in Los Angeles tomorrow night. It's a game worthy of some attention. The Lakers had beaten the Nuggets nine straight times heading into their last matchup late February in Denver. There's no doubt why the Lakers were able to dominate: The Nuggets like to run and push the tempo, which is very fun to watch, but if you play that way against the Lakers, you're gonna lose.
In their last game, though, the Nuggets slowed things down, played solid defense and won an ugly game, 90-79. If Denver can force the Lakers to play that way -- and Thursday's game will be an indication of whether the Nugs' win was a fluke -- they'd have a shot in a seven-game series.
Houston seems to be the other legit conference finals challenger to the Lakers. The Rockets play very good defense, they can use Yao Ming to force opponents into a halfcourt game, and they're deep. First, though, the Rockets need to pass the Spurs for the No. 3 seed, which won't be easy, because the Spurs have a half-game edge. Houston needs to win its remaining games and hope for San Antonio to lose one. That would create a tie for No. 3, and (unless the Spurs were to lose to division opponent New Orleans), could set off a long and bizarre string of tiebreakers that would finally be decided by the teams' records against other West playoff teams, the fifth tiebreaker. The Rockets would win that tiebreaker.
Even if the Rockets were to get to the Lakers in the conference finals, there is a problem. The Lakers swept the season series with Houston, 4-0.
2. Will the Celtics hold up?
If Boston gets a good matchup in the first round -- the struggling Pistons, for example -- and is able to cruise, using that series and the practice time in between to get its rhythm back, we'll all forget what a mess the roster seems to be at this point. But that could be wishful thinking. No team, even the defending champ, wants to head into the playoffs trying to work through a slew of health issues and piecing together something resembling a rotation.
That's the situation coach Doc Rivers has, though. It starts with the aching knee of Kevin Garnett, and there's no way to tell whether he'll be 100 percent when the postseason hits. The Celtics will try to work him back in for the final two games of the season next week, but there's no getting around the fact that he will go into the postseason having played in just seven games of limited duty since the All-Star break. He looked good in his brief return in late March, but will he be ready to give 35 minutes per night in the first round? How about in the second round?
It goes beyond Garnett, though. Reserve forward Leon Powe has been rehabbing his knee, too, and needs to get into game shape. Until last week, Tony Allen had not played since February, but the Celtics are trying to see if he can be brought along quickly enough to have some playoff value. Brian Scalabrine is still shaking off the cobwebs of a concussion. Rajon Rondo dinged up his ankle in practice. And, while Mikki Moore has been decent as an energy guy/foul-picker-upper, it's unlikely that free-agent pickup Stephon Marbury will be a factor for Boston in the postseason.
Most coaches spend the final month of the regular season working out their playoff rotation. Rivers will have about two days.
3. Who will be the No. 1 overall seed?
The Cavaliers and Lakers have comfortable leads to earn the top seed in their respective conferences, but the race for the overall top seed remains heated. Cleveland has a one-game lead over the Lakers, but L.A. has swept the season series over the Cavs, so the Lakers hold the tiebreaker.
Cleveland could very well sweep their remaining five games. Three are at home -- against Washington, Boston and Philadelphia -- where the Cavs have just one loss all year. The two road games are against the Sixers and Indiana. But coach Mike Brown seems willing to sacrifice the team's shot at the top overall record for the more immediate goal of resting his key players.
Here's what Brown told reporters after practice yesterday, according to Cleveland.com: "I think eventually we may end up getting to a point where we may sit some guys if I feel it necessary. But I just started to think of that last night. Having said that, I know we're going to go into [Wednesday's game against Washington] trying to play our guys and trying to win. If I rest guys, then whatever happens happens. LeBron is a big cog in our engine, and if he's out, we could lose a game."
Perhaps the Cavs will be in position to sacrifice a game or two, because the Lakers are no cinch to win their final four games. They have three at home, against Denver, Memphis and Utah, but it's the one remaining road game that is a very big red flag. It's in Portland, where the Lakers have not won since 2005.
4. Can Utah and New Orleans dodge No. 8 in the West?
Not only are Houston and Denver probably not imposing threats to the Lakers, they're not really imposing playoff threats at all. The Rockets have not been out of the first round since 1997, and the Nuggets have not been out of the first round since 1994. Throw in the injury to Ginobili, and the teams that are likely to be the 2-3-4 seeds in the West have to look very beatable to the teams that wind up 5-6-7 for the first round.
Alas, No. 8 gets the first-round playoff death sentence that is the Lakers.
It behooves Dallas, then, to find a way to boost itself past its closest West rivals, either the Jazz or the Hornets. Tuesday's overtime win at Miami was enormous for New Orleans, because the Hornets were able to erase the drubbing given to them by the Jazz on Sunday, and move themselves two games ahead of Dallas. But they're not out of the eighth-seed woods quite yet. They play Dallas twice in the coming week, on Friday and Sunday, then close out the year with games in Houston and San Antonio.
The Mavs can do themselves a favor Wednesday night by knocking off the Jazz in Dallas, which would pull the two teams into a tie. Utah would hold the tiebreaker edge over the Mavericks, but the Jazz have the tougher schedule ahead, with road games against the Spurs and Lakers.
5. Does anyone want to play the Bulls?
If this was the NBDL, where a change in playoff format allows the top teams to pick their opponents from the lower seeds, no one would want to take on Chicago. They've gone 9-3 since their bummer of an early-March road trip, and since the All-Star break, they're 12-1 at the United Center -- the one loss was to the Lakers, and came after the Bulls had built a 16-point lead.
New additions John Salmons (who is nursing a groin injury) and Brad Miller have fit in very well, and young big men Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah have gotten more reliable. Rookie point guard Derrick Rose fought through some midseason struggles, free-agent-to-be Ben Gordon still is a potent scorer and Kirk Hinrich's acceptance of a bench role has made him the glue that has held the whole thing together.
"We just have a good rhythm going," Hinrich said. "Especially at home, we have a comfort level here and I am sure that will carry over into the playoffs. But we've been able to get our offense going and we've been getting stops on the defensive end when we need them. I think we really like how we've been playing."
It's possible that the Bulls will slide ahead of the Pistons for the No. 7 seed in the East (the two teams play each other in Detroit on Monday), which would create an interesting tangent in the race between the Celtics and Magic for the East's No. 2 seed -- it might be better to be third and avoid Chicago in the first round.
Sean Deveney
You play nearly six months worth of basketball over the course of the NBA's regular season, and yet, when you come down to the final week, you still find yourself sitting on questions aplenty. Five pretty big ones come to mind ...
1. Who's going to challenge the Lakers in the West?
The injury to Manu Ginobili is obviously a huge blow to the Spurs, not just in terms of the stats he is able to put up, but in terms of his energy level, his defense and his overall ability to annoy opponents into submission over the course of a seven-game series. His replacement, Roger Mason Jr., has had some huge games for San Antonio, but he is light on playoff experience and has struggled in the second half of the season. We can likely cross out that expected Spurs-Lakers conference final.
Denver, in good shape for the No. 2 seed in the West, would be the logical challenger to the Lakers -- and, in a pleasant coincidence, the two teams play in Los Angeles tomorrow night. It's a game worthy of some attention. The Lakers had beaten the Nuggets nine straight times heading into their last matchup late February in Denver. There's no doubt why the Lakers were able to dominate: The Nuggets like to run and push the tempo, which is very fun to watch, but if you play that way against the Lakers, you're gonna lose.
In their last game, though, the Nuggets slowed things down, played solid defense and won an ugly game, 90-79. If Denver can force the Lakers to play that way -- and Thursday's game will be an indication of whether the Nugs' win was a fluke -- they'd have a shot in a seven-game series.
Houston seems to be the other legit conference finals challenger to the Lakers. The Rockets play very good defense, they can use Yao Ming to force opponents into a halfcourt game, and they're deep. First, though, the Rockets need to pass the Spurs for the No. 3 seed, which won't be easy, because the Spurs have a half-game edge. Houston needs to win its remaining games and hope for San Antonio to lose one. That would create a tie for No. 3, and (unless the Spurs were to lose to division opponent New Orleans), could set off a long and bizarre string of tiebreakers that would finally be decided by the teams' records against other West playoff teams, the fifth tiebreaker. The Rockets would win that tiebreaker.
Even if the Rockets were to get to the Lakers in the conference finals, there is a problem. The Lakers swept the season series with Houston, 4-0.
2. Will the Celtics hold up?
If Boston gets a good matchup in the first round -- the struggling Pistons, for example -- and is able to cruise, using that series and the practice time in between to get its rhythm back, we'll all forget what a mess the roster seems to be at this point. But that could be wishful thinking. No team, even the defending champ, wants to head into the playoffs trying to work through a slew of health issues and piecing together something resembling a rotation.
That's the situation coach Doc Rivers has, though. It starts with the aching knee of Kevin Garnett, and there's no way to tell whether he'll be 100 percent when the postseason hits. The Celtics will try to work him back in for the final two games of the season next week, but there's no getting around the fact that he will go into the postseason having played in just seven games of limited duty since the All-Star break. He looked good in his brief return in late March, but will he be ready to give 35 minutes per night in the first round? How about in the second round?
It goes beyond Garnett, though. Reserve forward Leon Powe has been rehabbing his knee, too, and needs to get into game shape. Until last week, Tony Allen had not played since February, but the Celtics are trying to see if he can be brought along quickly enough to have some playoff value. Brian Scalabrine is still shaking off the cobwebs of a concussion. Rajon Rondo dinged up his ankle in practice. And, while Mikki Moore has been decent as an energy guy/foul-picker-upper, it's unlikely that free-agent pickup Stephon Marbury will be a factor for Boston in the postseason.
Most coaches spend the final month of the regular season working out their playoff rotation. Rivers will have about two days.
3. Who will be the No. 1 overall seed?
The Cavaliers and Lakers have comfortable leads to earn the top seed in their respective conferences, but the race for the overall top seed remains heated. Cleveland has a one-game lead over the Lakers, but L.A. has swept the season series over the Cavs, so the Lakers hold the tiebreaker.
Cleveland could very well sweep their remaining five games. Three are at home -- against Washington, Boston and Philadelphia -- where the Cavs have just one loss all year. The two road games are against the Sixers and Indiana. But coach Mike Brown seems willing to sacrifice the team's shot at the top overall record for the more immediate goal of resting his key players.
Here's what Brown told reporters after practice yesterday, according to Cleveland.com: "I think eventually we may end up getting to a point where we may sit some guys if I feel it necessary. But I just started to think of that last night. Having said that, I know we're going to go into [Wednesday's game against Washington] trying to play our guys and trying to win. If I rest guys, then whatever happens happens. LeBron is a big cog in our engine, and if he's out, we could lose a game."
Perhaps the Cavs will be in position to sacrifice a game or two, because the Lakers are no cinch to win their final four games. They have three at home, against Denver, Memphis and Utah, but it's the one remaining road game that is a very big red flag. It's in Portland, where the Lakers have not won since 2005.
4. Can Utah and New Orleans dodge No. 8 in the West?
Not only are Houston and Denver probably not imposing threats to the Lakers, they're not really imposing playoff threats at all. The Rockets have not been out of the first round since 1997, and the Nuggets have not been out of the first round since 1994. Throw in the injury to Ginobili, and the teams that are likely to be the 2-3-4 seeds in the West have to look very beatable to the teams that wind up 5-6-7 for the first round.
Alas, No. 8 gets the first-round playoff death sentence that is the Lakers.
It behooves Dallas, then, to find a way to boost itself past its closest West rivals, either the Jazz or the Hornets. Tuesday's overtime win at Miami was enormous for New Orleans, because the Hornets were able to erase the drubbing given to them by the Jazz on Sunday, and move themselves two games ahead of Dallas. But they're not out of the eighth-seed woods quite yet. They play Dallas twice in the coming week, on Friday and Sunday, then close out the year with games in Houston and San Antonio.
The Mavs can do themselves a favor Wednesday night by knocking off the Jazz in Dallas, which would pull the two teams into a tie. Utah would hold the tiebreaker edge over the Mavericks, but the Jazz have the tougher schedule ahead, with road games against the Spurs and Lakers.
5. Does anyone want to play the Bulls?
If this was the NBDL, where a change in playoff format allows the top teams to pick their opponents from the lower seeds, no one would want to take on Chicago. They've gone 9-3 since their bummer of an early-March road trip, and since the All-Star break, they're 12-1 at the United Center -- the one loss was to the Lakers, and came after the Bulls had built a 16-point lead.
New additions John Salmons (who is nursing a groin injury) and Brad Miller have fit in very well, and young big men Tyrus Thomas and Joakim Noah have gotten more reliable. Rookie point guard Derrick Rose fought through some midseason struggles, free-agent-to-be Ben Gordon still is a potent scorer and Kirk Hinrich's acceptance of a bench role has made him the glue that has held the whole thing together.
"We just have a good rhythm going," Hinrich said. "Especially at home, we have a comfort level here and I am sure that will carry over into the playoffs. But we've been able to get our offense going and we've been getting stops on the defensive end when we need them. I think we really like how we've been playing."
It's possible that the Bulls will slide ahead of the Pistons for the No. 7 seed in the East (the two teams play each other in Detroit on Monday), which would create an interesting tangent in the race between the Celtics and Magic for the East's No. 2 seed -- it might be better to be third and avoid Chicago in the first round.