duncan228
04-10-2009, 01:55 PM
Weekly Countdown: NBA scouts, executives honor the season's best (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/ian_thomsen/04/10/weekly.countdown/index.html)
Ian Thomsen
5 major awards
This week I polled a half-dozen NBA advance scouts and pro personnel executives -- experts who spend the season traveling the league to break down players firsthand and again on tape -- for their choices for the regular-season awards. You'll find their opinions differ from the media voters, myself included, who decide most of these contests. (I'll reveal my ballots next week.)
5. All-NBA. Broken into three teams:
Third Team
G Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
G Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
F Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
C Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
In order to recognize the best players, some panelists fiddled with positions by referring to Gasol or Tim Duncan as a center or nudging Johnson out of the backcourt. "I'm surprised there are not a lot of forwards to choose from this year,'' an advance scout said. "That run of great power forwards is going away, especially with [Kevin] Garnett being out a lot of the year.''
Parker has never made an All-NBA team. "I think he has carried them,'' said another scout who picked him as a first-teamer. "They've been missing [Manu] Ginobili a lot, and Parker has stepped up a lot of those nights.''
One surprising absentee was Shaquille O'Neal, who is leading the league in field-goal shooting (61.2 percent) and averaging 18.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while missing just seven games entering the final week. "Has he made his team better, or has he brought it down to his level?'' a personnel executive said. "Even on bad teams someone has to score points.''
Second Team
G Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
G Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
F Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
C Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
The panel lauded Duncan. "On the offensive end, they still get it to him and they run their '4 down' when they need to get a score,'' a scout said, referring to a post-up play for Duncan. "If you watch him defensively, his feet are great and he works in the paint -- he's so smart and so active with his hands. He's slowing down, but he takes pride in defense, and he understands how to play defense better than anyone in the league.''
Williams, meanwhile, overcame a sprained ankle that limited him over the first half of the season. "I like Deron Williams as a defender,'' a scout said. "He does a great job guarding the pick-and-roll. He's one of the best in the league at it.''
First Team
G Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
G Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (unanimous first team selection)
F Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
F LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (unanimous)
C Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Pierce deserves to be a first-teamer, according to the panel. "He has done a great job of keeping that team in contention,'' an admirer said. "You can't stop him offensively, and he plays at both ends. At the end of the game, he's playing defense against the best perimeter player. He has been their glue all year.''
4. Rookie of the Year. Per my official NBA ballot, I asked the panel for three names in order.
3. O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies
2. Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets
1. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls (unanimous)
Rose finished first on all six ballots. "Far and away the best,'' a voter said. "He has all the talent and he's that team's leader: To have that combination in a rookie is very unusual.''
Here's a voter on Lopez: "He has played consistently the last half of the season, and it's hard to get numbers when you're a big man and you've got to go get the ball and catch it and score -- as opposed to being able to take the ball up the floor and force a possession [from the backcourt].''
Reaction was mixed on Mayo after a strong start to the season. "I thought he declined through the year. I still like him, I really like him. But his shooting has gone down, and that coincides with Mike Conley's having the ball more.''
Added another voter: "Mayo is like [Kevin] Durant a year ago: He can really score. But the more I look at him, I can't help but start to wonder: Is he going to be more than that? Is he going to be a guy who tries to do more than get his 20 points?''
Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook and Timberwolves forward Kevin Love also received consideration. "Westbrook is a stats filler," a panelist said. "He needs to learn to limit his turnovers and improve his decision-making. His shot is not broken; he has a good-looking shot, and as it develops he's going to be dangerous because he attacks so hard and puts people on their heels. He also needs to be better at finishing at the rim.''
On Love: "I was really disappointed in him at the beginning of the year, but he's gotten better all year long. Now he isn't trying to do things he's not capable of."
3. Defensive Player of the Year.
3. Kobe Bryant
2. LeBron James
1. Dwight Howard
Considering the high standards of these panelists, these results serve as high praise for James, who wasn't recognized as a strong defender before this season. The Cavaliers have been a dominant defensive team this season and James has become a leader at that end of the floor. "He can lock down anybody he wants to at any time,'' a personnel scout said, "and he seems to have the respect from the officials and the league.''
James and Bryant tend to roam defensively, which is both bad and good -- but mainly good. During the key moments of tight games, they often dominate defensively. At other times, they look to make big plays. "I don't know if they lock down on people every play of every night,'' a voter said. "For instance, Kobe will leave his man completely to double somebody and rip the ball off. He and LeBron give up the weak side because they're chasing the ball. But Michael [Jordan] used to do the same thing. That was how he played defense too.''
Many recognized Howard for leading the league in rebounds (13.9) and blocks (2.9), but none of the panelists believe he has achieved Garnett's standard, who ceded the award to a knee injury that has sidelined him for 18 games. "Howard is not always this great defender, but he does lead in those categories -- and that doesn't even account for the shots he changes,'' a voter said.
Added another voter: "I think it's easier for a guy like Howard to defend down there than it is for these other guys out on the perimeter. On the perimeter, you're dealing with lot of distance between you and the goal, so your footwork and quickness have to be great. You're always getting screened and you have to go over or under or through the screen. A big guy sits there and he's either defending right on the ball with nobody else involved, or maybe he has a teammate coming in to [help] down with him.''
2. Coach of the Year.
3. Jerry Sloan, Utah Jazz
2. Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
1. Mike Brown, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Heat lost 67 games last season for Pat Riley, but rookie head coach Spoelstra has Miami back in the playoffs with a winning record. Two voters named him Coach of the Year, while two others don't have him on the ballot -- a sign of the wide divergence of opinion on how to choose this difficult award. "He did more with less than the other guys,'' summed up a Spoelstra supporter.
Sloan, who has never won the award, received one first-place vote from a panelist who explains: "They've had a lot of injuries and he still has his team contending. No matter who is on the floor, they execute, they play hard and they try to be in every game. This is no pity vote -- I respect him for what he's accomplished this year.''
Brown finished first or second on every ballot. The voters named all of the obvious reasons, namely notching the best record in the league and improving over last season, adhering to defense and developing a system that brings out the best in LeBron and his teammates.
1. Most Valuable Player.
5. Chris Paul
4. Dwight Howard
3. Dwyane Wade
2. Kobe Bryant
1. LeBron James (unanimous)
That's right, LeBron is No. 1 on every ballot. "When I look at everything he's done, offensively and defensively, there's no doubt he's the MVP,'' explained one voter who for years has rated Bryant as the best player in basketball. "He is the dominant player in the league right now.''
For these experts, it choosing James over Bryant and Wade was a straightforward decision. "It's only tough because LeBron has got more help on his team,'' another voter said. "Dwyane has so few players on his team who contribute. But LeBron has catapulted himself to a whole different level. I don't think there's any question he is the best player in the league. He can do whatever the hell he wants to do out there.''
As a matter of interest, one voter listed Yao as No. 5 on his MVP ballot; he also rated Yao as the first-team All-NBA center, shifting Howard to the second team. Here's why: "Yao is the toughest matchup of all the big men in the league. He is going to demand a double team, he has all of the moves and he is the one big guy I've seen this year who can control the tempo. If they're playing a small team, the Rockets will pound it into him and force you to go big.
"From Orlando's standpoint, they play a lot of pick-and-roll. They go to Dwight, but they're not going inside like Houston goes to Yao. Houston's first option is to go inside to Yao and see what you're going to do and play off that. If you double him, he'll kick it outside for three-point shots, and if you don't, then he'll kill you from the post. And then he's such a good free-throw shooter that he'll beat you that way too. Dwight can't do that because he's such a poor free-throw shooter, which is why they can't go to him at the end of the game.''
4 other awards
4. All-Defensive First Team.
G Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G Kobe Bryant
F LeBron James
F Kevin Garnett
C Dwight Howard
Rondo was the surprise here. "Off the ball, he takes chances and he's not solid,'' a panelist said. "But I love his ability to get everybody on the team to defend. Garnett has the fanfare, and he deserves it, but when Garnett has been out, you notice that this guy [Rondo] is the guy who goes out to meet the ball. I love the way he gets over the screens, plays the 1 and 2 and at times he has even played Kobe Bryant on defense. When they have to have a major stop, it's Rondo. He sets the tone out front and gets them to be good defensive team.''
3. Sixth Man Award.
T-3. Flip Murray, Atlanta Hawks
T-3. Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
2. Travis Outlaw, Portland Trail Blazers
1. Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
Terry embraced his new role off the bench for the good of the team.
2. Most Improved Player.
3. Rajon Rondo
2. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
1. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets
Harris and Granger have been the favorites all year, for obvious reasons. The surprise selection, again, is Rondo. "They've leaned on him more this year for his decision-making with the ball and he's taken another step up,'' a voter said.
Other votes went to New York's David Lee ("He was the first name I thought of for this award") and Denver's Chris Andersen ("He is the best value in the league''). The Nuggets' shot-blocker is making $800,000 this season.
1. Executive of the Year.
3. Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers
2. Sam Presti, Oklahoma City Thunder
1. Danny Ferry, Cleveland Cavaliers
Amazingly, all three of these guys are part of the San Antonio mafia. All have worked under the new Don, Gregg Popovich, the Vito Corleone of basketball (i.e., I am but a humble man, but I have many important friends ...). On the day when R.C. Buford leaves San Antonio to run his own team, Popovich will earn his full due as lord of the NBA's Five Families.
Ferry has long been the front-runner for this award, based on the offseason trade for Mo Williams that filled Cleveland's need for scoring and leadership at point guard. Like his fellow former Spurs, he has developed flexibility within his payroll (which he could wield by trading expiring contracts or by going under the cap in 2010, whether or not LeBron re-signs with Cleveland).
"The Mo Williams deal was huge,'' a voter said. "He traded away Joe Smith [in the Williams deal] and then gets him back [in a midseason buyout]. Under a lot of pressure, he's done what he can to make LeBron question whether he's going to leave or not. It's no longer a foregone conclusion like everybody thought at the beginning of the year.''
Pritchard received votes from three panelists who noted how well he has drafted to build the Blazers. "I'm voting for him more for what he didn't do than what he did," a voter said. "He held onto guys this year and let them develop together instead of trading away some young talent.''
The surprise here is Presti, who presides over the fourth-worst team in the league. But he received two first-place votes for amassing draft picks and cap space that can be applied over the next two summers in pursuit of talent to join with Durant, Westbrook and Jeff Green. In these recessionary times, the Thunder are the envy of many small-market teams.
"Getting [midseason free-agent Nenad] Krstic was big. They've got some talent there, and he has it set up for them to go in the same direction as Portland.''
Orlando GM Otis Smith finished fourth with the panel. "If he had not done that deal to go get Rafer Alston [at the trading deadline in February], they would be dead in the water right now. That deal kept them as a contender.''
Ian Thomsen
5 major awards
This week I polled a half-dozen NBA advance scouts and pro personnel executives -- experts who spend the season traveling the league to break down players firsthand and again on tape -- for their choices for the regular-season awards. You'll find their opinions differ from the media voters, myself included, who decide most of these contests. (I'll reveal my ballots next week.)
5. All-NBA. Broken into three teams:
Third Team
G Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers
G Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
F Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks
F Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
C Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers
In order to recognize the best players, some panelists fiddled with positions by referring to Gasol or Tim Duncan as a center or nudging Johnson out of the backcourt. "I'm surprised there are not a lot of forwards to choose from this year,'' an advance scout said. "That run of great power forwards is going away, especially with [Kevin] Garnett being out a lot of the year.''
Parker has never made an All-NBA team. "I think he has carried them,'' said another scout who picked him as a first-teamer. "They've been missing [Manu] Ginobili a lot, and Parker has stepped up a lot of those nights.''
One surprising absentee was Shaquille O'Neal, who is leading the league in field-goal shooting (61.2 percent) and averaging 18.0 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.5 blocks while missing just seven games entering the final week. "Has he made his team better, or has he brought it down to his level?'' a personnel executive said. "Even on bad teams someone has to score points.''
Second Team
G Deron Williams, Utah Jazz
G Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets
F Kevin Garnett, Boston Celtics
F Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
C Yao Ming, Houston Rockets
The panel lauded Duncan. "On the offensive end, they still get it to him and they run their '4 down' when they need to get a score,'' a scout said, referring to a post-up play for Duncan. "If you watch him defensively, his feet are great and he works in the paint -- he's so smart and so active with his hands. He's slowing down, but he takes pride in defense, and he understands how to play defense better than anyone in the league.''
Williams, meanwhile, overcame a sprained ankle that limited him over the first half of the season. "I like Deron Williams as a defender,'' a scout said. "He does a great job guarding the pick-and-roll. He's one of the best in the league at it.''
First Team
G Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat
G Kobe Bryant, Los Angeles Lakers (unanimous first team selection)
F Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics
F LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers (unanimous)
C Dwight Howard, Orlando Magic
Pierce deserves to be a first-teamer, according to the panel. "He has done a great job of keeping that team in contention,'' an admirer said. "You can't stop him offensively, and he plays at both ends. At the end of the game, he's playing defense against the best perimeter player. He has been their glue all year.''
4. Rookie of the Year. Per my official NBA ballot, I asked the panel for three names in order.
3. O.J. Mayo, Memphis Grizzlies
2. Brook Lopez, New Jersey Nets
1. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls (unanimous)
Rose finished first on all six ballots. "Far and away the best,'' a voter said. "He has all the talent and he's that team's leader: To have that combination in a rookie is very unusual.''
Here's a voter on Lopez: "He has played consistently the last half of the season, and it's hard to get numbers when you're a big man and you've got to go get the ball and catch it and score -- as opposed to being able to take the ball up the floor and force a possession [from the backcourt].''
Reaction was mixed on Mayo after a strong start to the season. "I thought he declined through the year. I still like him, I really like him. But his shooting has gone down, and that coincides with Mike Conley's having the ball more.''
Added another voter: "Mayo is like [Kevin] Durant a year ago: He can really score. But the more I look at him, I can't help but start to wonder: Is he going to be more than that? Is he going to be a guy who tries to do more than get his 20 points?''
Thunder point guard Russell Westbrook and Timberwolves forward Kevin Love also received consideration. "Westbrook is a stats filler," a panelist said. "He needs to learn to limit his turnovers and improve his decision-making. His shot is not broken; he has a good-looking shot, and as it develops he's going to be dangerous because he attacks so hard and puts people on their heels. He also needs to be better at finishing at the rim.''
On Love: "I was really disappointed in him at the beginning of the year, but he's gotten better all year long. Now he isn't trying to do things he's not capable of."
3. Defensive Player of the Year.
3. Kobe Bryant
2. LeBron James
1. Dwight Howard
Considering the high standards of these panelists, these results serve as high praise for James, who wasn't recognized as a strong defender before this season. The Cavaliers have been a dominant defensive team this season and James has become a leader at that end of the floor. "He can lock down anybody he wants to at any time,'' a personnel scout said, "and he seems to have the respect from the officials and the league.''
James and Bryant tend to roam defensively, which is both bad and good -- but mainly good. During the key moments of tight games, they often dominate defensively. At other times, they look to make big plays. "I don't know if they lock down on people every play of every night,'' a voter said. "For instance, Kobe will leave his man completely to double somebody and rip the ball off. He and LeBron give up the weak side because they're chasing the ball. But Michael [Jordan] used to do the same thing. That was how he played defense too.''
Many recognized Howard for leading the league in rebounds (13.9) and blocks (2.9), but none of the panelists believe he has achieved Garnett's standard, who ceded the award to a knee injury that has sidelined him for 18 games. "Howard is not always this great defender, but he does lead in those categories -- and that doesn't even account for the shots he changes,'' a voter said.
Added another voter: "I think it's easier for a guy like Howard to defend down there than it is for these other guys out on the perimeter. On the perimeter, you're dealing with lot of distance between you and the goal, so your footwork and quickness have to be great. You're always getting screened and you have to go over or under or through the screen. A big guy sits there and he's either defending right on the ball with nobody else involved, or maybe he has a teammate coming in to [help] down with him.''
2. Coach of the Year.
3. Jerry Sloan, Utah Jazz
2. Erik Spoelstra, Miami Heat
1. Mike Brown, Cleveland Cavaliers
The Heat lost 67 games last season for Pat Riley, but rookie head coach Spoelstra has Miami back in the playoffs with a winning record. Two voters named him Coach of the Year, while two others don't have him on the ballot -- a sign of the wide divergence of opinion on how to choose this difficult award. "He did more with less than the other guys,'' summed up a Spoelstra supporter.
Sloan, who has never won the award, received one first-place vote from a panelist who explains: "They've had a lot of injuries and he still has his team contending. No matter who is on the floor, they execute, they play hard and they try to be in every game. This is no pity vote -- I respect him for what he's accomplished this year.''
Brown finished first or second on every ballot. The voters named all of the obvious reasons, namely notching the best record in the league and improving over last season, adhering to defense and developing a system that brings out the best in LeBron and his teammates.
1. Most Valuable Player.
5. Chris Paul
4. Dwight Howard
3. Dwyane Wade
2. Kobe Bryant
1. LeBron James (unanimous)
That's right, LeBron is No. 1 on every ballot. "When I look at everything he's done, offensively and defensively, there's no doubt he's the MVP,'' explained one voter who for years has rated Bryant as the best player in basketball. "He is the dominant player in the league right now.''
For these experts, it choosing James over Bryant and Wade was a straightforward decision. "It's only tough because LeBron has got more help on his team,'' another voter said. "Dwyane has so few players on his team who contribute. But LeBron has catapulted himself to a whole different level. I don't think there's any question he is the best player in the league. He can do whatever the hell he wants to do out there.''
As a matter of interest, one voter listed Yao as No. 5 on his MVP ballot; he also rated Yao as the first-team All-NBA center, shifting Howard to the second team. Here's why: "Yao is the toughest matchup of all the big men in the league. He is going to demand a double team, he has all of the moves and he is the one big guy I've seen this year who can control the tempo. If they're playing a small team, the Rockets will pound it into him and force you to go big.
"From Orlando's standpoint, they play a lot of pick-and-roll. They go to Dwight, but they're not going inside like Houston goes to Yao. Houston's first option is to go inside to Yao and see what you're going to do and play off that. If you double him, he'll kick it outside for three-point shots, and if you don't, then he'll kill you from the post. And then he's such a good free-throw shooter that he'll beat you that way too. Dwight can't do that because he's such a poor free-throw shooter, which is why they can't go to him at the end of the game.''
4 other awards
4. All-Defensive First Team.
G Rajon Rondo, Boston Celtics
G Kobe Bryant
F LeBron James
F Kevin Garnett
C Dwight Howard
Rondo was the surprise here. "Off the ball, he takes chances and he's not solid,'' a panelist said. "But I love his ability to get everybody on the team to defend. Garnett has the fanfare, and he deserves it, but when Garnett has been out, you notice that this guy [Rondo] is the guy who goes out to meet the ball. I love the way he gets over the screens, plays the 1 and 2 and at times he has even played Kobe Bryant on defense. When they have to have a major stop, it's Rondo. He sets the tone out front and gets them to be good defensive team.''
3. Sixth Man Award.
T-3. Flip Murray, Atlanta Hawks
T-3. Nate Robinson, New York Knicks
2. Travis Outlaw, Portland Trail Blazers
1. Jason Terry, Dallas Mavericks
Terry embraced his new role off the bench for the good of the team.
2. Most Improved Player.
3. Rajon Rondo
2. Danny Granger, Indiana Pacers
1. Devin Harris, New Jersey Nets
Harris and Granger have been the favorites all year, for obvious reasons. The surprise selection, again, is Rondo. "They've leaned on him more this year for his decision-making with the ball and he's taken another step up,'' a voter said.
Other votes went to New York's David Lee ("He was the first name I thought of for this award") and Denver's Chris Andersen ("He is the best value in the league''). The Nuggets' shot-blocker is making $800,000 this season.
1. Executive of the Year.
3. Kevin Pritchard, Portland Trail Blazers
2. Sam Presti, Oklahoma City Thunder
1. Danny Ferry, Cleveland Cavaliers
Amazingly, all three of these guys are part of the San Antonio mafia. All have worked under the new Don, Gregg Popovich, the Vito Corleone of basketball (i.e., I am but a humble man, but I have many important friends ...). On the day when R.C. Buford leaves San Antonio to run his own team, Popovich will earn his full due as lord of the NBA's Five Families.
Ferry has long been the front-runner for this award, based on the offseason trade for Mo Williams that filled Cleveland's need for scoring and leadership at point guard. Like his fellow former Spurs, he has developed flexibility within his payroll (which he could wield by trading expiring contracts or by going under the cap in 2010, whether or not LeBron re-signs with Cleveland).
"The Mo Williams deal was huge,'' a voter said. "He traded away Joe Smith [in the Williams deal] and then gets him back [in a midseason buyout]. Under a lot of pressure, he's done what he can to make LeBron question whether he's going to leave or not. It's no longer a foregone conclusion like everybody thought at the beginning of the year.''
Pritchard received votes from three panelists who noted how well he has drafted to build the Blazers. "I'm voting for him more for what he didn't do than what he did," a voter said. "He held onto guys this year and let them develop together instead of trading away some young talent.''
The surprise here is Presti, who presides over the fourth-worst team in the league. But he received two first-place votes for amassing draft picks and cap space that can be applied over the next two summers in pursuit of talent to join with Durant, Westbrook and Jeff Green. In these recessionary times, the Thunder are the envy of many small-market teams.
"Getting [midseason free-agent Nenad] Krstic was big. They've got some talent there, and he has it set up for them to go in the same direction as Portland.''
Orlando GM Otis Smith finished fourth with the panel. "If he had not done that deal to go get Rafer Alston [at the trading deadline in February], they would be dead in the water right now. That deal kept them as a contender.''