duncan228
04-10-2009, 06:33 PM
Edit: Sorry for the formatting on the standings.
For Hornets, playoff future depends on the matchups (http://blog.nola.com/gladow/2009/04/for_hornets_playoff_future_dep.html)
by David Gladow, NOLA.com
I'll admit it; I've been down on the New Orleans Hornets lately. A lot of fans have. A series of injuries and lackluster efforts has left the fan base (and probably the team as well) wanting more.
But in this somewhat turbulent environment, it is worth noting the team is back in the playoffs for a second straight year. That's nothing to gloss over in a town that has struggled to field a consistent winner (let alone a championship contender) throughout its history. (And let's not debate the "struggle" comment, shall we? A year ago, I called the New Orleans Pelicans the best this city has ever had to offer. When a defunct minor league team is the best a city has to offer athletically, well, it's safe to say that city is struggling to find a winner.)
So making the playoffs is something to be happy about. But I'm going to take that optimism one step further and tell you that this team, for all its problems, can still win a playoff series (or two).
Stop laughing for a minute and I'll tell you why.
Put simply, it's all in the matchups. Your average, everyday, ho-hum team (and that's all this bunch is right now) is only as good as the schedule allows it to be. And in the absurdly balanced Western Conference (only 3 ½ games separate third and eighth place in the current standings), there's no such thing as an easy opponent come playoff time. There are only teams you match up with favorably. And fortunately for the Hornets, there are still a few opponents that fit this criteria for them.
Below I'll offer my thoughts on the best and worst possible pairings for New Orleans come playoff time, along with my rationale for why.
GOOD MATCHUPS
Dallas Mavericks (47-31) - Of course this listing can blow up in my face over the next three days as the Hornets and Mavs face off in a home and away, but I really don't think it will. We all saw what happened between these teams in the playoffs last year, but even more damning is what has transpired in two games this year (a pair of Hornets wins). In those two games, Chris Paul averaged an obscene 30 points and 13 assists per game (with 8 steals to boot). His Dallas counterpart, Jason Kidd, averaged 10 points and 4.5 assists (with 5 turnovers). Unless that disparity closes significantly, the Mavs stand little chance in a seven-game series with New Orleans, regardless of what Dirk Nowitzki and company do.
San Antonio Spurs (50-28) - Naturally, the Spurs are going to significantly miss their third-leading scorer, their second-best free throw shooter and arguably their second-best creator off the dribble (Manu Ginobli, out the rest of the playoffs), but even before that injury, the Hornets had an answer for nearly everything the Spurs threw out there. Scoring in the post? Meet Mr. West. Defending Tim Duncan? Meet Mr. Chandler. Scoring and play-making at the point? Meet Mr. Paul. Outside shooting? Meet Mr. Stojakovic and Mr. Butler. A week ago, one could have made the case that the Spurs and Hornets were near mirror images of each other, with San Antonio being slightly better (and more consistent) at what it wanted to do. Now, presuming Chandler makes it back, that edge would seem to go to New Orleans.
Portland Trail Blazers (50-28) - The Hornets and Blazers split their season series 2-2 (reason enough for some optimism), but it could (should?) have been 3-1 in New Orleans' favor. In the deciding game in the series, the Hornets held a 17-point lead with 1:30 left in the third quarter when disaster struck and Chris Paul injured his groin (with Tyson Chandler already out). The Blazers then went on a 26-7 run on their way to 38 fourth-quarter points and an eventual 97-89 win. The catalyst for Portland? Jerryd Bayless, a guard who had to that point (like everyone else at the Blazers point guard spot) been dominated by Paul. There's no reason in the world not to expect Paul to own whoever Portland trots out there to run the point again in the playoffs, and a healthy Chandler will keep the Blazers from getting what they want in the lane. Ultimately, Brandon Roy will play a significant factor and the Blazers have a clear advantage with their bench, but if the Hornets are healthy and hitting their shots, this series probably isn't even close.
Denver Nuggets (53-27) - With the Spurs depleted, Denver has taken hold of the No. 2 spot in the West. But don't let that, in and of itself, fool you. The Nuggets have a lot going for them, and in a battle of gimpy rosters two weeks ago, they upended the Hornets 101-88 in the Arena. So why is there hope for Hornets fans? Two things: The teams have split their season series 2-2, and the Hornets, missing Tyson Chandler, couldn't seal the lane or defend the jump shot to save its life in that final game. That second issue has not been shored up (nor will it magically fix itself in the playoffs), but the first problem would certainly be lessened with Chandler back. Chris Paul's six turnovers weren't an aberration exactly (Chauncey Billups is a great player), but they were excessive by CP3 standards. In a rematch of healthy clubs, expect Billups and Paul to trade proverbial punches, and David West and Carmelo Anthony to continue taking turns murdering the other team. Add in the intrigue of former Hornets Chris Andersen and J.R. Smith suiting up for Denver, and you've got one of the most interesting potential matchups in all the playoffs. Who wins the series? I have no idea. But I do know it would be close.
BAD MATCHUPS
Utah Jazz (47-31) - Too much is often made of the Jazz's Deron Williams being Chris Paul's "kryptonite". For the record, I don't believe Williams destroys Paul in a head-to-head matchup (in three games, Williams averaged 16 points and 11 assists while Paul averaged 23 points and 9 assists). If anything, he plays him even. But even that is a significant edge for any Hornets opponent to have due to the Hornets' over-reliance on their star point guard. Utah's post play is at least the equal of what New Orleans trots out there with bangers Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur, and Carlos Boozer all significant scoring threats. What's worse, the Jazz (3-0 against New Orleans this year) is also strongest where the Hornets are usually weakest: at swingman (Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles) and along the bench (Boozer, Matt Harpring and Andrei Kirilenko).
Houston Rockets (51-28) - If Houston's win March 16 at the Arena sans Tracy McGrady AND Yao Ming wasn't ominous enough for you, there are other factors at play that are sure to give the Hornets fits again should these teams meet in the playoffs. The Rockets, 2-1 against the Hornets this year, boast a good defense and a balanced offense, surrendering just 94.6 points per game while scoring 98.6. The presence of elite perimeter defender Ron Artest along with the team's immense length in the lane will frustrate anyone on the team not named Chris Paul (and constant doubling will take care of that). The scoring provided by Ming, Artest and unheralded players Luis Scola, Aaron Brooks, Von Wafer and Carl Landry adds up in a big way over the long haul. The common layman may be scratching his head about how this team keeps winning, but it's built to do so ... by chipping and wearing away at its opponent with waves of contributors. Eight active players average at least 7 points a game, and that's very bad news for a team with a suspect bench and a propensity for doubling on defense.
Los Angeles Lakers (63-16) - I'm not going to bore you with ALL of the reasons the Lakers would be prohibitive favorites in a pairing with New Orleans, but suffice it to say there are plenty. The Lakers average 107 points per game (a number the Hornets have reached just twice in the last 30 days). Kobe Bryant, arguably the best player in the league, mans the shooting guard spot, which has killed the Hornets all year. Derek Fisher has stabilized the point. Andrew Bynum is back. I could go on and on. There are but two reasons the Hornets can even hang with the Lakers, and they are named Chris Paul and David West. If those two combine for 80, the Hornets have a chance against anyone. Unfortunately, expecting that over a seven-game series isn't overly realistic.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN?
Let's go ahead and eschew the myth that the Hornets need home-court advantage in these playoffs. For one thing, it sure didn't help them last year against San Antonio, even in a Game 7. But more importantly, this Hornets team is one of the better road teams in the league (and almost equally as spotty at home). Some of the games this team has dropped at home (Phoenix, Chicago, Golden State, New York and Sacramento) could best be described as puzzling, but when paired with some of the Hornets' better road wins (Denver, Portland, Los Angeles, Dallas and Miami), they don't look quite so bad. If anything, they seem to indicate New Orleans can play with anyone (good or bad) at home or away.
This is a very good thing, because the current standings and remaining schedule (at DAL, DAL, at HOU, at SA) suggest the Hornets will not be able to attain a home-court advantage in the first round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
Western Conference
Team W L Pct GB
xyz-LA Lakers 63 16 .797 --
x-Denver 53 27 .663 10.5
x-Houston 51 28 .646 12.0
x-Portland 50 28 .641 12.5
x-San Antonio 50 28 .641 12.5
x-New Orleans 48 30 .615 14.5
x-Utah 47 31 .603 15.5
x-Dallas 47 31 .603 15.5
Phoenix 43 35 .551 19.5
Golden State 28 50 .359 34.5
Minnesota 24 55 .304 39.0
Memphis 22 56 .282 40.5
Oklahoma City 21 57 .269 41.5
LA Clippers 18 60 .231 44.5
Sacramento 16 62 .205 46.5
With four games to play, New Orleans stands two games behind the current No. 4 seed (Portland) and 2 ½ games behind the current No. 3 (Houston). Neither of those teams has nearly as difficult a slate as the Hornets do, so catching either looks difficult at best (winning all of their games, including their roadie at Houston, would appear to be a must).
More important is the status of the clump of teams immediately surrounding the Hornets.
Assuming anything at this point is probably foolish, but it's going to be difficult for Utah to win more than two of its last four. And beyond them, the Hornets have three games against the others in closest proximity to them in the standings (two against Dallas, one against San Antonio). There is a measure of control over their own destiny present here for the Hornets. Win two, and they're likely at least a seven seed. Win both Dallas games and they're essentially a lock. Win three games and that six spot looks likely. Win three and take out San Antonio and all of a sudden the five spot is a possibility.
The key will be avoiding the three teams listed above. With New Orleans and Utah both essentially assured of bottom-half finishes, that takes the Jazz out of the equation. Win a couple of games and the Lakers, the top seed, won't be an option either. That leaves Houston, and barring a series of unforeseen results, the Rockets will probably land the No. 3 slot ... meaning the Hornets don't want to be No. 6 (which they are now).
Of course any number of things can happen that will make all of this moot. Watch the Hornets win out, secure the No. 5 seed, then lose to Portland in the first round (I think they would do this just to spite me). But for my part anyway I want a first round win, so I'm going to be pulling for the Hornets to sweep Dallas and hopefully steal one in San Antonio - at the very least, that keeps them away from Los Angeles, making a first-round win much more likely.
After all, it's true that it's the time of year when anything can happen (and that's reason enough alone to celebrate a playoff appearance), but as any good gambler will tell you, playing the odds is never a bad idea.
For Hornets, playoff future depends on the matchups (http://blog.nola.com/gladow/2009/04/for_hornets_playoff_future_dep.html)
by David Gladow, NOLA.com
I'll admit it; I've been down on the New Orleans Hornets lately. A lot of fans have. A series of injuries and lackluster efforts has left the fan base (and probably the team as well) wanting more.
But in this somewhat turbulent environment, it is worth noting the team is back in the playoffs for a second straight year. That's nothing to gloss over in a town that has struggled to field a consistent winner (let alone a championship contender) throughout its history. (And let's not debate the "struggle" comment, shall we? A year ago, I called the New Orleans Pelicans the best this city has ever had to offer. When a defunct minor league team is the best a city has to offer athletically, well, it's safe to say that city is struggling to find a winner.)
So making the playoffs is something to be happy about. But I'm going to take that optimism one step further and tell you that this team, for all its problems, can still win a playoff series (or two).
Stop laughing for a minute and I'll tell you why.
Put simply, it's all in the matchups. Your average, everyday, ho-hum team (and that's all this bunch is right now) is only as good as the schedule allows it to be. And in the absurdly balanced Western Conference (only 3 ½ games separate third and eighth place in the current standings), there's no such thing as an easy opponent come playoff time. There are only teams you match up with favorably. And fortunately for the Hornets, there are still a few opponents that fit this criteria for them.
Below I'll offer my thoughts on the best and worst possible pairings for New Orleans come playoff time, along with my rationale for why.
GOOD MATCHUPS
Dallas Mavericks (47-31) - Of course this listing can blow up in my face over the next three days as the Hornets and Mavs face off in a home and away, but I really don't think it will. We all saw what happened between these teams in the playoffs last year, but even more damning is what has transpired in two games this year (a pair of Hornets wins). In those two games, Chris Paul averaged an obscene 30 points and 13 assists per game (with 8 steals to boot). His Dallas counterpart, Jason Kidd, averaged 10 points and 4.5 assists (with 5 turnovers). Unless that disparity closes significantly, the Mavs stand little chance in a seven-game series with New Orleans, regardless of what Dirk Nowitzki and company do.
San Antonio Spurs (50-28) - Naturally, the Spurs are going to significantly miss their third-leading scorer, their second-best free throw shooter and arguably their second-best creator off the dribble (Manu Ginobli, out the rest of the playoffs), but even before that injury, the Hornets had an answer for nearly everything the Spurs threw out there. Scoring in the post? Meet Mr. West. Defending Tim Duncan? Meet Mr. Chandler. Scoring and play-making at the point? Meet Mr. Paul. Outside shooting? Meet Mr. Stojakovic and Mr. Butler. A week ago, one could have made the case that the Spurs and Hornets were near mirror images of each other, with San Antonio being slightly better (and more consistent) at what it wanted to do. Now, presuming Chandler makes it back, that edge would seem to go to New Orleans.
Portland Trail Blazers (50-28) - The Hornets and Blazers split their season series 2-2 (reason enough for some optimism), but it could (should?) have been 3-1 in New Orleans' favor. In the deciding game in the series, the Hornets held a 17-point lead with 1:30 left in the third quarter when disaster struck and Chris Paul injured his groin (with Tyson Chandler already out). The Blazers then went on a 26-7 run on their way to 38 fourth-quarter points and an eventual 97-89 win. The catalyst for Portland? Jerryd Bayless, a guard who had to that point (like everyone else at the Blazers point guard spot) been dominated by Paul. There's no reason in the world not to expect Paul to own whoever Portland trots out there to run the point again in the playoffs, and a healthy Chandler will keep the Blazers from getting what they want in the lane. Ultimately, Brandon Roy will play a significant factor and the Blazers have a clear advantage with their bench, but if the Hornets are healthy and hitting their shots, this series probably isn't even close.
Denver Nuggets (53-27) - With the Spurs depleted, Denver has taken hold of the No. 2 spot in the West. But don't let that, in and of itself, fool you. The Nuggets have a lot going for them, and in a battle of gimpy rosters two weeks ago, they upended the Hornets 101-88 in the Arena. So why is there hope for Hornets fans? Two things: The teams have split their season series 2-2, and the Hornets, missing Tyson Chandler, couldn't seal the lane or defend the jump shot to save its life in that final game. That second issue has not been shored up (nor will it magically fix itself in the playoffs), but the first problem would certainly be lessened with Chandler back. Chris Paul's six turnovers weren't an aberration exactly (Chauncey Billups is a great player), but they were excessive by CP3 standards. In a rematch of healthy clubs, expect Billups and Paul to trade proverbial punches, and David West and Carmelo Anthony to continue taking turns murdering the other team. Add in the intrigue of former Hornets Chris Andersen and J.R. Smith suiting up for Denver, and you've got one of the most interesting potential matchups in all the playoffs. Who wins the series? I have no idea. But I do know it would be close.
BAD MATCHUPS
Utah Jazz (47-31) - Too much is often made of the Jazz's Deron Williams being Chris Paul's "kryptonite". For the record, I don't believe Williams destroys Paul in a head-to-head matchup (in three games, Williams averaged 16 points and 11 assists while Paul averaged 23 points and 9 assists). If anything, he plays him even. But even that is a significant edge for any Hornets opponent to have due to the Hornets' over-reliance on their star point guard. Utah's post play is at least the equal of what New Orleans trots out there with bangers Paul Millsap, Mehmet Okur, and Carlos Boozer all significant scoring threats. What's worse, the Jazz (3-0 against New Orleans this year) is also strongest where the Hornets are usually weakest: at swingman (Ronnie Brewer and C.J. Miles) and along the bench (Boozer, Matt Harpring and Andrei Kirilenko).
Houston Rockets (51-28) - If Houston's win March 16 at the Arena sans Tracy McGrady AND Yao Ming wasn't ominous enough for you, there are other factors at play that are sure to give the Hornets fits again should these teams meet in the playoffs. The Rockets, 2-1 against the Hornets this year, boast a good defense and a balanced offense, surrendering just 94.6 points per game while scoring 98.6. The presence of elite perimeter defender Ron Artest along with the team's immense length in the lane will frustrate anyone on the team not named Chris Paul (and constant doubling will take care of that). The scoring provided by Ming, Artest and unheralded players Luis Scola, Aaron Brooks, Von Wafer and Carl Landry adds up in a big way over the long haul. The common layman may be scratching his head about how this team keeps winning, but it's built to do so ... by chipping and wearing away at its opponent with waves of contributors. Eight active players average at least 7 points a game, and that's very bad news for a team with a suspect bench and a propensity for doubling on defense.
Los Angeles Lakers (63-16) - I'm not going to bore you with ALL of the reasons the Lakers would be prohibitive favorites in a pairing with New Orleans, but suffice it to say there are plenty. The Lakers average 107 points per game (a number the Hornets have reached just twice in the last 30 days). Kobe Bryant, arguably the best player in the league, mans the shooting guard spot, which has killed the Hornets all year. Derek Fisher has stabilized the point. Andrew Bynum is back. I could go on and on. There are but two reasons the Hornets can even hang with the Lakers, and they are named Chris Paul and David West. If those two combine for 80, the Hornets have a chance against anyone. Unfortunately, expecting that over a seven-game series isn't overly realistic.
WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN?
Let's go ahead and eschew the myth that the Hornets need home-court advantage in these playoffs. For one thing, it sure didn't help them last year against San Antonio, even in a Game 7. But more importantly, this Hornets team is one of the better road teams in the league (and almost equally as spotty at home). Some of the games this team has dropped at home (Phoenix, Chicago, Golden State, New York and Sacramento) could best be described as puzzling, but when paired with some of the Hornets' better road wins (Denver, Portland, Los Angeles, Dallas and Miami), they don't look quite so bad. If anything, they seem to indicate New Orleans can play with anyone (good or bad) at home or away.
This is a very good thing, because the current standings and remaining schedule (at DAL, DAL, at HOU, at SA) suggest the Hornets will not be able to attain a home-court advantage in the first round.
WESTERN CONFERENCE STANDINGS
Western Conference
Team W L Pct GB
xyz-LA Lakers 63 16 .797 --
x-Denver 53 27 .663 10.5
x-Houston 51 28 .646 12.0
x-Portland 50 28 .641 12.5
x-San Antonio 50 28 .641 12.5
x-New Orleans 48 30 .615 14.5
x-Utah 47 31 .603 15.5
x-Dallas 47 31 .603 15.5
Phoenix 43 35 .551 19.5
Golden State 28 50 .359 34.5
Minnesota 24 55 .304 39.0
Memphis 22 56 .282 40.5
Oklahoma City 21 57 .269 41.5
LA Clippers 18 60 .231 44.5
Sacramento 16 62 .205 46.5
With four games to play, New Orleans stands two games behind the current No. 4 seed (Portland) and 2 ½ games behind the current No. 3 (Houston). Neither of those teams has nearly as difficult a slate as the Hornets do, so catching either looks difficult at best (winning all of their games, including their roadie at Houston, would appear to be a must).
More important is the status of the clump of teams immediately surrounding the Hornets.
Assuming anything at this point is probably foolish, but it's going to be difficult for Utah to win more than two of its last four. And beyond them, the Hornets have three games against the others in closest proximity to them in the standings (two against Dallas, one against San Antonio). There is a measure of control over their own destiny present here for the Hornets. Win two, and they're likely at least a seven seed. Win both Dallas games and they're essentially a lock. Win three games and that six spot looks likely. Win three and take out San Antonio and all of a sudden the five spot is a possibility.
The key will be avoiding the three teams listed above. With New Orleans and Utah both essentially assured of bottom-half finishes, that takes the Jazz out of the equation. Win a couple of games and the Lakers, the top seed, won't be an option either. That leaves Houston, and barring a series of unforeseen results, the Rockets will probably land the No. 3 slot ... meaning the Hornets don't want to be No. 6 (which they are now).
Of course any number of things can happen that will make all of this moot. Watch the Hornets win out, secure the No. 5 seed, then lose to Portland in the first round (I think they would do this just to spite me). But for my part anyway I want a first round win, so I'm going to be pulling for the Hornets to sweep Dallas and hopefully steal one in San Antonio - at the very least, that keeps them away from Los Angeles, making a first-round win much more likely.
After all, it's true that it's the time of year when anything can happen (and that's reason enough alone to celebrate a playoff appearance), but as any good gambler will tell you, playing the odds is never a bad idea.