McDonald: Spurs Are In Third, But Don't Get Too Comfortable

[duncan228]

Update added.

Spurs are in third, but don't get too comfortable (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/2009/04/spurs-are-in-th.html)
By Jeff McDonald

OAKLAND, Calif. -- The Spurs woke up in the Bay Area this morning technically in third place in the Western Conference. But only technically, and probably not for long.

By virtue of their 95-92 victory in Sacramento on Friday night, which the NBA says probably should have gone to overtime, the Spurs are back in a three-way tie with Portland and Houston for the third through fifth seeds.

The Spurs win that tiebreaker, for now. But if all three teams win out, the Spurs will drop to fifth. How can that be?

A primer: The first step in breaking a three-way tie is to first settle the division championship. That squares off the Spurs and Rockets. At the moment, the Spurs own that tiebreaker by virtue of their superior record against the Southwest Division (9-6 vs. 8-6).

That's why they are technically in third place right now.

If both the Spurs and Rockets win out, each team will be 10-6 against the division, moving things down the tiebreaker line. They would each own the same record against the conference as well, meaning the tiebreaker comes down to which team has the best combined record against Western Conference playoff teams.

That would be the Rockets.

In that case, the Rockets get the third seed, the Blazers get fourth, and the Spurs slide to fifth -- and would open the playoffs on the road against Portland.

There are still a couple of scenarios that end with the Spurs in third place, but all of them involve the Rockets losing at least once.

UPDATE: There is one fairly plausible scenario in which the Spurs could wind up third. If the Spurs win out, and the Rockets lose at least one of their final two games, they are the No. 3 seed -- regardless of what happens to Portland.

If Portland also loses one or more games, the Spurs obviously take the third seed outright.

If Portland also wins out, it would create a two-way tie with the Spurs for third and fourth. The Spurs would win that tiebreaker based on an NBA rule, new for this season, that gives division winners an automatic tiebreaker over non-division winners. As such, the Spurs would gain third place over Portland, despite the fact the Blazers took three of four from them this season.

[mytespurs]

Spurs vs Trailblazers...at first glance, one would favor the younger, deeper Trailblazers but it wouldn't be a shock if the Spurs took them out...may go 6 games. But Trailblazers would be favored.

[Loquacist]

Even if the Spurs knock off the Blazers in the 1st round, they can't be so battle-fatigued that they fall prey to the Fakers or whomever else in the Semifinals.

[Whisky Dog]

The Blazers are complete playoff rookies with no experience whatsover. They'll be down 3-0 before they realize just how high you gotta step up your game over the reg season.

[Morg1411]

That would be a hard 7-game series. Think semifinals last year vs. the Hornets.

[mytespurs]

The Blazers are complete playoff rookies with no experience whatsover. They'll be down 3-0 before they realize just how high you gotta step up your game over the reg season.

maybe so but with their depth, hca, I wouldn't be too quick to dismiss them due to their lack of experience.

Was it 2005 or 2007.....Spurs met Supersonics in one of the rounds....wasn't the same Nate McMillan coach of that team? And Ray Allen was a supersonic at the time.....:)

[TheDarkSide.]

The Blazers are complete playoff rookies with no experience whatsover. They'll be down 3-0 before they realize just how high you gotta step up your game over the reg season.

I remember that saying last year when everyone was talking about the New Orleans Hornets and they took us to 7 games so IMO that's no excuse anymore.

[duncan228]

Was it 2005 or 2007.....Spurs met Supersonics in one of the rounds....wasn't the same Nate McMillan coach of that team? And Ray Allen was a supersonic at the time.....:)

2005. West Semi's. Yes, it was Nate McMillan that was the Sonic's coach.

[duncan228]

Updated.

Spurs are in third, but don't get too comfortable (NOW WITH UPDATES)

UPDATE: There is one fairly plausible scenario in which the Spurs could wind up third. If the Spurs win out, and the Rockets lose at least one of their final two games, they are the No. 3 seed -- regardless of what happens to Portland.

If Portland also loses one or more games, the Spurs obviously take the third seed outright.

If Portland also wins out, it would create a two-way tie with the Spurs for third and fourth. The Spurs would win that tiebreaker based on an NBA rule, new for this season, that gives division winners an automatic tiebreaker over non-division winners. As such, the Spurs would gain third place over Portland, despite the fact the Blazers took three of four from them this season.

[DPG21920]

I did not know about this rule change.

[HarlemHeat37]

I found out about it last night..

if everything goes to plan, I'd expect us to end up 3rd..I think we can win all of our remaining games..the NO might be tough though, since Chandler will be back..

Houston will lose in Dallas IMO..

[duncan228]

Spurs in 3rd? Only for the moment: The confusing playoff situation (http://www.woai.com/content/blogs/don/story/Spurs-in-3rd-Only-for-the-moment-The-confusing/4PqsBe6y8k62lQAF_OsPtg.cspx)
Don Harris

SAN ANTONIO - With two games still to play, the San Antonio Spurs still need help in order to secure home-court advantage in the NBA playoffs. The tie-breakers can be confusing and downright mind-boggling. For instance, The Spurs, Blazers and Rockets all have the same record and the Spurs are listed as third. This is misleading. If those three teams all win out, then the Spurs would actually be fifth and on the road in the first round.

WHY? According to NBA Rules the division winner must be determined before applying any three-way or four-way tie-breakers. That means the division title must be settled between the Spurs and Rockets. If the Spurs and Rockets both win out, they would both finish 54-28. The next tie-breaker is head to head. They tied this year 2-2.
The next tie breaker is record within division. Both would finish at 10-6. The fourth tie-breaker would be record vs. Western Conference teams. Both would finish 36-16. The fifth tie breaker is record vs. playoff teams in the Western Conference. This is where the Rockets have the edge. They would finish 15-13 while the Spurs would finish 12-13.

The Rockets would then get the 3rd seed as a division winner. The Spurs and Blazers would then go head to head and the Blazers won the season series 3-1. In fact, The Spurs do not come out ahead in ANY head to head tie breaker. They lost the season series to Denver and Portland.

The Spurs can still lose a game and finish with home court. But they would have to lose to Golden State and not New Orleans. They can’t afford another division loss. Unless Houston loses both division games left to New Orleans and Dallas. Bottom line, The Spurs need to win out and have Houston lose one in order to secure home court in the first round. It is not in their hands. That is of course at this time. Stay tuned. It will all change by 10pm.

[jrmp317]

wow some of these fans not giving the Blazers any credit are in for a rude awakening if Portland has home court advantage against us.

[TheProfessor]

wow some of these fans not giving the Blazers any credit are in for a rude awakening if Portland has home court advantage against us.
I've got a bad feeling about meeting Portland in the first round, as should any team that would have to face them. The kids will be anxious to impress.

[mystargtr34]

I think the Mavs beat the Rockets in Dallas, Portland wins out and so do the Spurs. That last game against NO will be crucial, winning that probably means a 3 - 6 matchup with the Hornets themselves.

1. Lakers
2. Nuggets
3. Spurs
4. Blazers
5. Rockets
6. Hornets
7. Mavs
8. Jazz

I think thats the most likely scenario, and the best one for the Spurs. I really think the Spurs have to rely on the Blazers to eliminate LA - which is obviously a long shot.

[superbigtime]

I remember that saying last year when everyone was talking about the New Orleans Hornets and they took us to 7 games so IMO that's no excuse anymore.

I think of Blazers as last year's Hornets but deeper and all around better. Would be an enormous undertaking. Please no Portland. I think our best first round matchup would be Houston. Familiar opponent, slow, short trip. Mavs ... just don't want to see em.

[superbigtime]

I've got a bad feeling about meeting Portland in the first round, as should any team that would have to face them. The kids will be anxious to impress.

And they will. Roy, Aldridge, Blake, Sergio, pryzbilla, Odom ... they will give anyone fits and in my opinion have a pretty fair chance of beating the Lakers. Better than anyone else in West right now.

[Whisky Dog]

I remember that saying last year when everyone was talking about the New Orleans Hornets and they took us to 7 games so IMO that's no excuse anymore.

The Hornets last season weren't complete playoff rookies like the Blazers are. They had guys like Pedja who had been through some playoff wars, and that makes a huge difference. These Blazers are complete rooks, no comparable experience whatsoever. They'll be done in round one this year, but with experience they'll be a beast in the future.