McDonald: Western Conference Playoff Scenarios

[duncan228]

Western Conference playoff scenarios (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/)
By Jeff McDonald

For those of you in need of a good headache this afternoon, here are the updated Western Conference playoff scenarios, as released this morning by the NBA:

Denver will be seeded:
• #2 if Nuggets win OR Rockets lose
• #3 if Nuggets lose and Rockets win

Houston will be seeded:
• #2 if Rockets win and Nuggets lose
• #3 if Rockets win and Nuggets win OR if Spurs and Blazers lose.
• #4 if Rockets lose, Spurs win and Blazers lose OR if Rockets lose, Spurs lose and Blazers win.
• #5 if Rockets lose and Spurs and Blazers win.

Portland will be seeded:
• #3 if Blazers win and Rockets and Spurs lose.
• #4 if Blazers win and either the Rockets or Spurs win (but not both) OR if Blazers and Spurs both lose.
• #5 if Blazers lose and Spurs win.

San Antonio will be seeded:
• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.
• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.
• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.

New Orleans will be seeded:
• #6 if Hornets win OR if Mavericks and Jazz lose.
• #7 if Hornets lose and either Mavericks or Jazz win (but not both)
• #8 if Hornets lose and Mavericks and Jazz win.

Dallas will be seeded:
• #6 if Mavericks win and Hornets lose.
• #7 if Mavericks win and Hornets win OR if Mavericks lose and Jazz lose.
• #8 if Mavericks lose and Jazz win.

Utah will be seeded:
• #6 if Jazz win and Hornets and Mavericks lose.
• #7 if Jazz win and either the Hornets or Mavericks win (both not both)
• #8 if Jazz lose OR Hornets and Mavericks win.

[ElNono]

This pretty much matches what we figured out on the other thread... Good job fellas...:toast

[Flux451]

best explanation yet, thanks

[crc21209]

Alright so now things are a little more clear.

[mytespurs]

I'm still confused! :( :rollin

I would prefer for the Spurs not to start off w/Portland so they need the #3 seed. They just have to win and hope the rockets lose.

Wednesday is going to be a great basketball night!! Will these games be on ESPN or TNT?

[crc21209]

I'm still confused! :( :rollin

I would prefer for the Spurs not to start off w/Portland so they need the #3 seed. They just have to win and hope the rockets lose.

Wednesday is going to be a great basketball night!! Will these games be on ESPN or TNT?

The Spurs game will only be on locally on FSNSW, while ESPN will have a double-header of Rockets-Mavs and Nuggets-Blazers.

[YoMamaIsCallin]

This story is just a cut and paste from NBA.com. (http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/04/14/scenarios0413/index.html)

[SenorSpur]

Screw the scenarios. I never liked the theory of matchup avoidance. If you're good, just beat the team that you're matched up against.

[spursfaninla]

Damn, Everyone has hard games to finish. Denver, Portland, Dallas, SA, NO, Houston, are all playing playoff teams for their final game.

We at least have a hope that HOuston loses tomorrow. NO is looking hobbled without Chandler and Peja, so that helps us. I would love to play them they way the look now.

[Morg1411]

Damn, Everyone has hard games to finish. Denver, Portland, Dallas, SA, NO, Houston, are all playing playoff teams for their final game.

We at least have a hope that HOuston loses tomorrow. NO is looking hobbled without Chandler and Peja, so that helps us. I would love to play them they way the look now.

Except that Chandler and Peja are both scheduled to play tomorrow, and since they always play like All Stars against the Spurs, look forward to a tough game.

[VI_Massive]

Don't want to play Portland without home court....everything else we can live with if need be. To me that is the only nightmare scenario.

[Morg1411]

Don't want to play Portland without home court....everything else we can live with if need be. To me that is the only nightmare scenario.

I don't know about nightmare, but it's not my favorite. It just means we'll have to rev into Ass-Stomping Overdrive Mode even quicker than usual. :ihit

[completely deck]

Predictions?

[ElNono]

I think Denver can beat Portland in Portland, but the Oregonians probably want to send a message. That's going to be a tough one. I wouldn't be surprised if Denver comes out to an early lead, and Portland battles back. They've done that all season.
Dallas has been playing fairly good at home, and they seem to be getting up to play good teams, but I don't see who is going to stop Yao in the paint. Dampier is the only guy they have and unless he gets some home cooking, he's going to be sitting down with foul trouble early and often. Is Howard even playing for Dallas?
As far as our game, it will all depend how Chandler is doing coming back. Peja looked out of rhythm against Houston. Then again, for some reason NO is a team that one night can have David West putting up 30 points and Antonio "Mr Freeze" Daniels shooting 80% from the field. Then another night they end up with a stinker (Houston game). If Timmy's knees are healthy, I still think we'll pull it out.

So I'll go with:
- Denver over Portland
- Houston over Dallas
- Spurs over Hornets

In that scenario, we would end up with the #4 seed, and open against Portland with HCA.

[usckk]

this story is just a cut and paste from nba.com. (http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/04/14/scenarios0413/index.html)

lol!

[MoSpur]

So more than likely, the Spurs will play the Trailblazers or Rockets in the first round?

[Morg1411]

So more than likely, the Spurs will play the Trailblazers or Rockets in the first round?

Not necessarily. If Dallas and San Antonio both win, they'd face each other in Round 1.

[Allanon]

The East has locked up 6 seedings (only seeds 6/7 left). West has only locked up 1 seed.

Wild, Wild, West indeed.

[jack sommerset]

I can't wait for Thursday morning. West will have some great match-ups. I hope for

Lakers vs Jazz
Denver vs Nuggets
Spews vs Mavs
Rockets vs Portland

Thart 2 me would be best 1st round match ups

[41times]

Western Conference playoff scenarios (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/)
By Jeff McDonald

For those of you in need of a good headache this afternoon, here are the updated Western Conference playoff scenarios, as released this morning by the NBA:

Denver will be seeded:
• #2 if Nuggets win OR Rockets lose
• #3 if Nuggets lose and Rockets win

Houston will be seeded:
• #2 if Rockets win and Nuggets lose
• #3 if Rockets win and Nuggets win OR if Spurs and Blazers lose.
• #4 if Rockets lose, Spurs win and Blazers lose OR if Rockets lose, Spurs lose and Blazers win.
• #5 if Rockets lose and Spurs and Blazers win.

Portland will be seeded:
• #3 if Blazers win and Rockets and Spurs lose.
• #4 if Blazers win and either the Rockets or Spurs win (but not both) OR if Blazers and Spurs both lose.
• #5 if Blazers lose and Spurs win.

San Antonio will be seeded:
• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.
• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.
• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.

New Orleans will be seeded:
• #6 if Hornets win OR if Mavericks and Jazz lose.
• #7 if Hornets lose and either Mavericks or Jazz win (but not both)
• #8 if Hornets lose and Mavericks and Jazz win.

Dallas will be seeded:
• #6 if Mavericks win and Hornets lose.
• #7 if Mavericks win and Hornets win OR if Mavericks lose and Jazz lose.
• #8 if Mavericks lose and Jazz win.

Utah will be seeded:
• #6 if Jazz win and Hornets and Mavericks lose.
• #7 if Jazz win and either the Hornets or Mavericks win (both not both)
• #8 if Jazz lose OR Hornets and Mavericks win.

So if the Spurs beat the Hornets and the Mavs beat the Rockets it will be Mavs vs. Spus in round 1. Perfect. That is the dream matchup!

[Morg1411]

I can't wait for Thursday morning. West will have some great match-ups. I hope for

Lakers vs Jazz
Denver vs Nuggets
Spews vs Mavs
Rockets vs Portland

Thart 2 me would be best 1st round match ups

I assume you mean Denver vs. New Orleans.

If so, I'd also like those pairings.

[Morg1411]

So if the Spurs beat the Hornets and the Mavs beat the Rockets it will be Mavs vs. Spus in round 1. Perfect. That is the dream matchup!

:toast

[Dex]

Remember the days when your seed was determined like 2 weeks out from the playoffs, and you could rest your starters through the last games?

Looks like this damn season is going to come down to the buzzer out West.

[Spurs Brazil]

We'll play Blazers or Mavs

[jason1301]

Western Conference playoff scenarios (http://blogs.mysanantonio.com/weblogs/courtside/)


San Antonio will be seeded:
• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.
• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.
• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.




As of today Spurs, Rockets and Blazers have a 0.654 winning record, with means.

San Antonio will be seeded

#3; 0.654*(1-0.654) = 0.226284 or 22.6% of the time
#4; 0.654*0.654*(1-0.654)= 0.147989736 or 14.8% of the time
#5; (1-0.654) + 0.654*0.654*0.654=0.625726264 or 62.6% of the time


:whine

[jiggy_55]

I predict Spurs end up with the 3rd seed.. Portland will beat Denver, Dallas will beat Houston, and the Spurs will beat New Orleans..

and as Hollinger claims, this is actually the most likely scenario: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090414

[Agloco]

Screw the scenarios. I never liked the theory of matchup avoidance. If you're good, just beat the team that you're matched up against.

Tell that to the 07 Mavs......

[Agloco]

As of today Spurs, Rockets and Blazers have a 0.654 winning record, with means.

San Antonio will be seeded

#3; 0.654*(1-0.654) = 0.226284 or 22.6% of the time
#4; 0.654*0.654*(1-0.654)= 0.147989736 or 14.8% of the time
#5; (1-0.654) + 0.654*0.654*0.654=0.625726264 or 62.6% of the time


:whine

How do the records of the teams that they're playing against factor into your analysis? (i.e. if the Rockets were playing the Lakers in their final game and the Spurs had Utah at home, wouldn't that change your calculated likelihoods a bit)

[E20]

I want the Mavs to play the Lakers in the first round.

[silverblackfan]

Meh. I think the Spurs will still go into Portland and win the first game. We will see how the young club deals with that scenario.

[ElNono]

As of today Spurs, Rockets and Blazers have a 0.654 winning record, with means.

San Antonio will be seeded

#3; 0.654*(1-0.654) = 0.226284 or 22.6% of the time
#4; 0.654*0.654*(1-0.654)= 0.147989736 or 14.8% of the time
#5; (1-0.654) + 0.654*0.654*0.654=0.625726264 or 62.6% of the time


:whine

Does this take into account things like Chandler coming back from injury, etc?

[mytespurs]

The Spurs game will only be on locally on FSNSW, while ESPN will have a double-header of Rockets-Mavs and Nuggets-Blazers.

Thanks! Oh well, I'll watch ESPN w/the sound down; I imagine there will be coverage of the Spurs game. I just realized that the rockets-mavs will be on the same time as the spurs and the hornets.

Wednesday is D-Day in the NBA...WOOHOOOOOO!!!

GO SPURS GO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[jason1301]

How do the records of the teams that they're playing against factor into your analysis? (i.e. if the Rockets were playing the Lakers in their final game and the Spurs had Utah at home, wouldn't that change your calculated likelihoods a bit)

they don't, never said my analysis was correct either!

Its just math, and take it for what it is... with some Cheese and Wine


:toast

[mytespurs]

I want the Mavs to play the Lakers in the first round.

:sleep:sleep:sleep

With all due respect, I think the Lakers will at best sweep the mavs; the mavs may escape with 1 win.

[jason1301]

Does this take into account things like Chandler coming back from injury, etc?

Is the earth flat?

[ElNono]

Is the earth flat?

:lol :toast

[DrHouse]

I would love to see the Spurs play the Blazers in Round 1, provided they have HCA.

Talk about rude awakenings....tlongII and his brethren are in for a world of hurt.

Not to mention it would eliminate perhaps one of the biggest threats the Lakers face in the WC.

[Agloco]

they don't, never said my analysis was correct either!

Its just math, and take it for what it is... with some Cheese and Wine


:toast

Hmmm......



Is the earth flat?

It's oblate, close enough?

[jason1301]

Hmmm......




It's oblate, close enough?

oblate is a religion superstar, do you mean oblate spheroid?

[Spursmania]

I'm bumping this thread.

[senorglory]

Predictions?

Spurs win, Rockets win, Blazers lose: 4th seed.

[SpursFan0728]

My predictions:
Spurs win, Dallas Win, Portland Win

[senorglory]

Spurs win, Rockets win, Blazers lose: 4th seed.

... but I'm hoping for #3.

[NewJerSpur]

I would love to see the Spurs play the Blazers in Round 1, provided they have HCA.

Talk about rude awakenings....tlongII and his brethren are in for a world of hurt.

Not to mention it would eliminate perhaps one of the biggest threats the Lakers face in the WC.

We'll likely take the 3rd seed and you'll likely have to deal with the young upstarts....or Houston.

[TDMVPDPOY]

cant wait to see duncan open up in the playoffs....its going to be interesting

[Cloud786]

We will host dallas in round 1.

[crc21209]

Utah is now officially the 8th seed.

[nz_spur]

It's going to be an interesting last day of regular season. Good explanation.

[KSeal]

Everything I've ever wanted in life has always never happened. So based on this knowledge I'm going to say the Blazers get HCA over the Spurs in the first round, then the Blazers will play LA in a stressed out shit fest seven games series where I age about 40 years over the two weeks. I thought as long as Houston lost and Portland won Portland was the three but I was totally wrong. Spurs have to lose too, that is way too much to ask for. Denver, Houston, Portland, SA, NO, Dallas.

[TampaDude]

As of today Spurs, Rockets and Blazers have a 0.654 winning record, with means.

San Antonio will be seeded

#3; 0.654*(1-0.654) = 0.226284 or 22.6% of the time
#4; 0.654*0.654*(1-0.654)= 0.147989736 or 14.8% of the time
#5; (1-0.654) + 0.654*0.654*0.654=0.625726264 or 62.6% of the time


:whine

If the Spurs win and the Rockets lose to the Mavs, the Spurs are SW Division Champs and automatic 3rd seed regardless of what happens in Portland.

GO SPURS and MAVS!!! :toast :toast

[Toni61]

Bring us the Mavs !!!

[KSeal]

If the Spurs win and the Rockets lose to the Mavs, the Spurs are SW Division Champs and automatic 3rd seed regardless of what happens in Portland.

This completely ruined my night. :bang :depressed

[41times]

The 1 seed and 8th seed matchup is decided. Lakers vs. Jazz

If the Mavs and Spurs both win tonight it looks like it will be Dallas vs. Spurs in the first round. Yippeee

[YoMamaIsCallin]

after Utah's loss to LAL which clinched the #8 seed for them.

The number of possibilities still open for the Spurs is staggering for the last day of the season. For the first game of the playoffs, they could find themselves:

- on the road at Portland
- on the road at Houston
- at home against Portland
- at home against Dallas

The Hornets can clinch the #6 seed by beating the Spurs, so they do have something to play for.

If the Spurs lose, they are the #5 seed and will start at the #4 seed. In this case the #4 seed will be Houston, if Portland beats Denver and Dallas beats Houston. Otherwise it'll be Portland.

If the Spurs win, the following possibilities ensue:

#5 seed starting at Portland, if Portland beats Denver and Houston beats Dallas.
#4 seed starting vs. Portland if Denver beats Portland and Houston beats Dallas.
#3 seed starting vs. Dallas if Dallas beats Houston .

Here's the complete rundown for the West:

Los Angeles Lakers have clinched #1 and will play Utah in the first round.

Denver (playing at Portland) will be seeded:
• #2 if Nuggets win OR Rockets lose
• #3 if Nuggets lose and Rockets win

Houston (playing at Dallas) will be seeded:
• #2 if Rockets win and Nuggets lose
• #3 if Rockets win and Nuggets win OR if Spurs and Blazers lose.
• #4 if Rockets lose, Spurs win and Blazers lose OR if Rockets lose, Spurs lose and Blazers win.
• #5 if Rockets lose and Spurs and Blazers win.

Portland (playing vs. Denver) will be seeded:
• #3 if Blazers win and Rockets and Spurs lose.
• #4 if Blazers win and either the Rockets or Spurs win (but not both) OR if Blazers and Spurs both lose.
• #5 if Blazers lose and Spurs win.

San Antonio (playing vs. New Orleans) will be seeded:
• #3 if Spurs win and Rockets lose.
• #4 if Spurs win, Rockets win and Blazers lose.
• #5 if Spurs lose OR if Rockets and Blazers win.

New Orleans (playing at San Antonio) will be seeded:
• #6 if Hornets win OR Mavericks lose.
• #7 if Hornets lose and Mavericks win.

Dallas (playing vs. Houston) will be seeded:
• #6 if Mavericks win and Hornets lose.
• #7 if Mavericks lose OR Hornets win.

Utah is the #8 seed and will face the Lakers in the first round.

[xtremesteven33]

I want Dallas.

[FromWayDowntown]

I'm wondering about the motivation of the Hornets and Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is 0-4 this season against Denver, having lost by 3, 10, 2, and 2. Would the Mavericks prefer to avoid the Nuggets if possible -- something they might be able to do with a win tonight -- or do the close scores leave the Mavs convinced that they were really close and that a matchup with Denver would be better than moving up to 6 to get either SA or Houston? I think if Dallas could get to 6 and find Portland waiting there (which would require a DAL win tonight, a PRT win tonight, and an SA loss tonight), they'd be exstatic, having swept the Blazers this year.

[1Parker1]

I'm wondering about the motivation of the Hornets and Mavericks tonight.

Dallas is 0-4 this season against Denver, having lost by 3, 10, 2, and 2. Would the Mavericks prefer to avoid the Nuggets if possible -- something they might be able to do with a win tonight -- or do the close scores leave the Mavs convinced that they were really close and that a matchup with Denver would be better than moving up to 6 to get either SA or Houston? I think if Dallas could get to 6 and find Portland waiting there (which would require a DAL win tonight, a PRT win tonight, and an SA loss tonight), they'd be exstatic, having swept the Blazers this year.

Honestly...I think 2-7, the teams are all so close and all match up pretty evenly against eachother, with no clear cut "Easier" team, that all teams tonight are just going to try their best to win and have some momentum going into the playoffs.

[Road Warrior]

I'm wondering about the motivation of the Hornets and Mavericks tonight.

I think Dallas will still be motivated to win tonight. They'll be playing a division rival at home on the last day of the season with a chance to move up in the standings. Even though it would only be going from 7 to 6th seed I think anytime a team has a chance to move up they would want to take advantage because you never know what can happen.

[DPG21920]

I think Dallas wants to play the Spurs for sure. Not only have the Mavs beat the Spurs in the playoffs, many of their players openly say they have absolutely no fear of the Spurs and that the Spurs would hate to see them in the playoffs.

I agree.

[rascal]

What if SA, Portland and Houston all win. I don't see the results for that scenario. Houston will be the #2 and Denver will be #3 but what about the rest.

[remingtonbo2001]

IF you're Dallas, who would you rather play?

Does Dallas tank tonight's game to be matched up with a team like Denver or Houston, over the Spurs?

[DPG21920]

What if SA, Portland and Houston all win. I don't see the results for that scenario. Houston will be the #2 but what about the rest.

Spurs will play Portland and be 5th seed.

[Road Warrior]

What if SA, Portland and Houston all win. I don't see the results for that scenario. Houston will be the #2 but what about the rest.

1.LA
2.Houston
3.Denver
4.Portland
5.Spurs
6.New Orleans
7.Dallas
8.Utah

[rascal]

1.LA
2.Houston
3.Denver
4.Portland
5.Spurs
6.New Orleans
7.Dallas
8.Utah

I see now where I missed it. Or If Portland and Houston win spurs get #5 seed.

[rascal]

IF you're Dallas, who would you rather play?

Does Dallas tank tonight's game to be matched up with a team like Denver or Houston, over the Spurs?

Yes Dallas will tank it. Houston will win tonight.

[Morg1411]

Yes Dallas will tank it. Houston will win tonight.

Dallas doesn't want Denver.

[DPG21920]

Dallas wants to play San Antonio. There are no questions about it.

[sribb43]

Dallas wants to play San Antonio. There are no questions about it.

As good as SAS is i agree with you here...out of DEN, HOU and SAS the Spurs are the most vunerable w/o Manu and Timmy's knee. Not saying the Mavs would win but there best chance is vs. SAS....plus we know the Spurs usually bring the best out of the mavs (minus that pathetic effort in Feb when Spurs where w/o Manu and Tim

[sribb43]

Like i said in another thread...

If Mavs lose to the Spurs without Manu....Mavs fans should never be able to bring up '06 Game 7 ever again

[Morg1411]

Like i said in another thread...

If Mavs lose to the Spurs without Manu....Mavs fans should never be able to bring up '06 Game 7 ever again

Thou shalt be quoted on that. :toast

[sribb43]

Thou shalt be quoted on that. :toast

:toast

[Agloco]

Like i said in another thread...

If Mavs lose to the Spurs without Manu....Mavs fans should never be able to bring up '06 Game 7 ever again

Kinda like requiring a 6 year old to give up his imaginary friend once he starts elementary school?

In both of these examples, it's highly unlikely that either would occur.......

[41times]

IF you're Dallas, who would you rather play?

Does Dallas tank tonight's game to be matched up with a team like Denver or Houston, over the Spurs?

We want the Spurs. No question.

The Mavs have already proven they can win in San Antonio and all they have to do is win 1 game in River City to have a chance. Now factor in no Ginob and the Mavs are drooling over this matchup.

However, they aren't scared of Thuggets even though they lost 4 close games to them. 2 of those games were w/o Josh Howard and 1 of the games was his first game back and his minutes were limited under 20 (the 2 pt. loss).

Portland is young and inexperienced and the Mavs have already won in Portland. But this team should scare people. They are young and athletic and have no fear.

Houston will go as far as Yao's big toe will take them. Great home team. Average road team.

But make no mistake the Mavs ,as someone pointed out, have no fear of the Spurs whatsoever. So that is their first choice.