duncan228
04-16-2009, 05:52 PM
A Scouting Six-Pack On Mavs-Spurs (http://www.dallasbasketball.com/fullColumn.php?id=1526)
We Analyze Some Review-Worthy Items That May Predict Series History
By Mike Fisher -- DB.com
They say those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat it. For the Mavs, maybe their lesson on the Spurs need only go back to the March 4 game – and that is a history they would love to repeat.
We’re thinking (hoping?) that the 107-102 win at the AAC six weeks ago might allow us to gain some insight into what might happen in this Round 1 series between the Texas archrivals. So we checked back on what occurred in that game – when the lineups, the numbers, the mentality and the trends were largely as they figure to be for this series – and unearthed a Six-Pack of scouting-report-style Review-Worthy Items:
“According to public opinion,’’ DB.com wrote (http://dallasbasketball.com/fullArchiveColumn.php?id=1391), “Dallas’ chances to beat San Antonio on Wednesday ran the gamut, from A to. … oh, about B. But in one of those “must-game’’/“game-of-the-year’’ situations, the Mavs got their heads in the game and off the guillotine and recorded a momentous and tantalizing 107-102 home victory.''
What we saw then. ... and how it relates to now. ...
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 1: A TIGHT ROTATION – Wondering about the Mavs’ probable rotation plans? You see it in the boxscore from that night: A tight, shortened, playoff-style rotation. JJB and Singleton got a sniff. But otherwise this was the starting five carrying a load (42 minutes for Dirk, 31 minutes for Damp) plus heavy minutes for Jason Terry and 15 minutes for Brandon Bass.
Almost a seven-man rotation. Tight. Tight as Oprah wearing Kate Moss' panties.
We all know by now that coach Rick Carlisle presents to his players a “Be Ready’’ pregame instruction. (Surely he says more than those two cryptic words, but maybe not.) So there is always room for the playing of a hot hand, the playing of a hunch, maybe even the playing of Gerald Green. (No, not really on that last one.) But don’t look for any surprises here.
Most of the answers to the Mavs’ rotation plans are established. They are in that boxscore.
REVIEW WORTHY-ITEM 2 J-HO’S PINK-SLIP INSPIRATION: Remember that this game came immediately following that inept performance at OKC, the one that prompted owner Mark Cuban to wave about a handful of pink slips.
Remember who reacted best to the challenge?
Josh Howard taped an aspirin to it that night and responded with a gutsy performance: 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting, with seven rebounds. There were moments when Josh took to limping around on that ankle. … but a second later he’d be slicing to the basket, taking measured shots from the arc (4-of-5 from there) and giving a balls-out defensive effort.
In the first quarter he scored 12 straight. By halftime he had 20. And at game’s end, Josh’s dive to the basket for an uncontested layup – after smartly deciding to pass up a jumper – was among the many play-of-the-game candidates. And “tantalizing’’ is the word for Josh at his best. With ample rest between each of these Round 1 game – and maybe with the thought of a blow-it-up victimization in his head – Josh might just do more than tantalize here.
Well worth noting: J-Ho’s birthday is April 28. That’s a Tuesday night, Game 5 at San Antonio.
No cloud-filled b’day parties on the Riverwalk, OK, Josh?
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 3: DAMP’S LONG LEASH: Another pink-slip pinpointee from early March? Maybe Erick Dampier. So he showed up that night, too, with nine points and a handful of rebounds and most importantly with four blocks shots – one of them a help-out effort on Tim Duncan, another one a huge stuff of Tony Parker in the final minute – and grinding work that helped limit Duncan to 7-of-21 shooting.
Now, let’s not be “hopeful’’ with Duncan. (He’s old, his knees are betraying him, the window’s closing.) Let’s instead be “factual’’ with Duncan. (Did you see him in Game 82? Duncan finished with 20 points, 19 rebounds, six assists, four turnovers and a block in 33 minutes.) Waiting for this guy to fall apart is like waiting for sedimentary rocks to form.
After 12 years of doing this – and all 12 playoff years, right? – Tim Duncan has developed different gears for different road conditions. He plowed through the regular season and his team won 54. We just gave you his totals for Game 82, which represent another gear.
In the OT against the Hornets, He scored six points, had six rebounds, has two assists and blocked a Chris Paul layup.
Another gear.
And here comes yet another.
So how to combat all that?
It is tempting as a fan to ask for some Hollins here, to ask for some Singleton here. But Damp has a track record against Duncan. Consider that, and consider how coach Rick Carlisle has recently tried to find ways to keep Erick on the floor (assigned to guard NO’s David West and Utah’s Carlos Boozer, for instance).
We predict Damp gets a long leash.
One more thing that Dampier did in the March 4 meeting: He controlled the interior in such a way that SA devolved into becoming a “jump-shooting team’’ – the same cursed words so often used to describe Dallas’ offense.
But the Spurs rely on Finley and Bonner and Bowen and Hill and Mason and you know what? Like Dallas, a “jump-shooting team’’ is a big part of what they are. For better or worse.
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 4: ‘LETTING PARKER GET HIS’ -- The Spurs have one unsolvable puzzle – or at least, unsolvable for Dallas. Tony Parker scored 37 points in the March 4 meeting. Manu didn’t play in that game, of course, but strategically, the Spurs were at that time waiting for his return.
Now? There will be no Manu.
So there will probably be even more of Tony Parker.
What Dallas did against him defensively in the second half of that game represents a virtual strategic give-up: They assigned Jason Terry to him.
Now, Jet, if you’re reading this, don’t take offense. (Or, maybe you should; any source of inspiration is worth a shot.) Jason Terry is finally getting some national credit (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Sixth-Man-of-the-Year-Jason-Terry?urn=nba,156790) for being the emotional leader of the Mavs (and of the 20,000 paying customers every night at the AAC). In the last meeting, he accomplished plenty: 17 points, six assists, three steals.
But while Jet can do some waterbugging of his own on offense, he cannot stick with Parker defensively. Indeed, Terry is about as poor a defender as the Mavs have in their rotation. (Sorry, Jet.)
In theory, the Mavs could make Parker the No. 1 responsibility of Antoine Wright. (Unfortunately, he might be drawn to Roger Mason, who scored 23 from the other guard spot.) And they could let JJB have a turn. (Unfortunately, he was a non-factor in the last meeting.) But neither of those approaches did much to consistently slow down New Orleans’ Chris Paul, who burned Dallas last weekend for ... well, for about as many points as he wanted.
Parker can do the same. Assigning Jason Terry to Parker almost plays like a “Tony’s-gonna-get-his’’ concession. … and then the Mavs can worry about controlling the more-controllable other four Spurs on the floor.
In short, the Mavs averaged 99.8 ppg over the course of the year. The Spurs averaged 93.3. It is Dallas’ hope that whatever exploding Parker does in the next two weeks is within the confines of that 93.3.
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 5: DO THE SPURS DOUBLE-TEAM KIDD? – Some of what Popovich does with the double-team is a no-brainer: He double-teams Dirk, of course, especially when Nowitzki sets up in his new pet spot in the FT-line Iso. (you’ll notice that increasingly, Dallas is getting Dirk the ball deeper and deeper on that play; if opponents double-team him in the paint, it opens up a volume of inside-out passing lanes for the 7-footer.)
But there is a less orthodox double-team Pop used on March 4 that did not go well at all for the Spurs.
They tried to double-team-trap Jason Kidd on the wings.
We understand the logic; with Kidd calling the plays, it’s nice for the Spurs to force the ball from his hands. The double-team clogs up Kidd’s wish to orchestrate pick-and-rolls (which he did with ease against SA in the first half of that game) and as the shot clock ticks down, it almost forces quarterbacking responsibilities into the hands of a less-capable Mav.
But. …
It also assumes that Kidd won’t be able to find shooters in the corners. (A bad assumption.) It also assumes that those shooters will misfire. (Dallas’ lowly ranking as a 3-point-launching team makes that assumption less dubious, but still. … is Pop’s bet really that Jason Terry is going to lose the game from the corner?)
They will double-team Dirk. They can’t really double-team Josh or Jet. They might double-team Kidd, or – and here’s where it gets tricky – they might leave Kidd alone on the perimeter, gunk up his passing lanes, and force him to launch from the arc.
SA took its chances on that approach often enough on March 4 that in addition to all the other things Kidd did (seven rebounds and nine assists) he also shot 6-of-10 from the floor and 3-of-5 from the arc and he scored 17 points.
"It's all about (Kidd) running the show,'' says Dirk with praise of the point guard.
So do they cover Kidd? Double-team him? Or not cover him at all?
Tricky.
REVIEW-WORTH ITEM 6: THE A-THROUGH-Z FACTOR -- In the first half of that game, Dirk was so dialed in it seemed his made shots never dared touch rim. In the second half, he was even better, unveiling his offensive repertoire especially in the final few minutes, when he: Cut into the lane and dumped to Dampier for a dunk. … then hit a 3-pointer from the left wing that had him acting as if it was the dagger, as he wagged that tongue as SA called a timeout. … then came a left-wing jumper that pushed Dallas up 98-88 lead. … then came his involvement in some crisp ball movement, and an inside shot from Josh and an outside shot from Kidd … and then another tongue-wag.
“At that time of the game,’’ said Carlisle, "You want the ball in your best player's hands."
Dirk (the aforementioned “best player’’) certainly seemed like he wanted the ball in his hands down the stretch. He finished with 24 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two tongue-wags. He did his damage early against the likes of this “Bonner’’ character but he did it late when it was Duncan who drew the unenviable task of chasing around The UberMan.
There is a lot of talk of “X-factors’’ and whatnot; Josh Howard even labels himself that way. But if any one Mavs in an “X,’’ then Dirk must be the rest of the letters A-through-Z. The Mavs can and have survived poor games by Howard and the rest.
They haven’t and won’t survive a poor series from perennial MVP candidate Dirk.
We Analyze Some Review-Worthy Items That May Predict Series History
By Mike Fisher -- DB.com
They say those who do not learn from history are destined to repeat it. For the Mavs, maybe their lesson on the Spurs need only go back to the March 4 game – and that is a history they would love to repeat.
We’re thinking (hoping?) that the 107-102 win at the AAC six weeks ago might allow us to gain some insight into what might happen in this Round 1 series between the Texas archrivals. So we checked back on what occurred in that game – when the lineups, the numbers, the mentality and the trends were largely as they figure to be for this series – and unearthed a Six-Pack of scouting-report-style Review-Worthy Items:
“According to public opinion,’’ DB.com wrote (http://dallasbasketball.com/fullArchiveColumn.php?id=1391), “Dallas’ chances to beat San Antonio on Wednesday ran the gamut, from A to. … oh, about B. But in one of those “must-game’’/“game-of-the-year’’ situations, the Mavs got their heads in the game and off the guillotine and recorded a momentous and tantalizing 107-102 home victory.''
What we saw then. ... and how it relates to now. ...
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 1: A TIGHT ROTATION – Wondering about the Mavs’ probable rotation plans? You see it in the boxscore from that night: A tight, shortened, playoff-style rotation. JJB and Singleton got a sniff. But otherwise this was the starting five carrying a load (42 minutes for Dirk, 31 minutes for Damp) plus heavy minutes for Jason Terry and 15 minutes for Brandon Bass.
Almost a seven-man rotation. Tight. Tight as Oprah wearing Kate Moss' panties.
We all know by now that coach Rick Carlisle presents to his players a “Be Ready’’ pregame instruction. (Surely he says more than those two cryptic words, but maybe not.) So there is always room for the playing of a hot hand, the playing of a hunch, maybe even the playing of Gerald Green. (No, not really on that last one.) But don’t look for any surprises here.
Most of the answers to the Mavs’ rotation plans are established. They are in that boxscore.
REVIEW WORTHY-ITEM 2 J-HO’S PINK-SLIP INSPIRATION: Remember that this game came immediately following that inept performance at OKC, the one that prompted owner Mark Cuban to wave about a handful of pink slips.
Remember who reacted best to the challenge?
Josh Howard taped an aspirin to it that night and responded with a gutsy performance: 29 points on 10-of-15 shooting, with seven rebounds. There were moments when Josh took to limping around on that ankle. … but a second later he’d be slicing to the basket, taking measured shots from the arc (4-of-5 from there) and giving a balls-out defensive effort.
In the first quarter he scored 12 straight. By halftime he had 20. And at game’s end, Josh’s dive to the basket for an uncontested layup – after smartly deciding to pass up a jumper – was among the many play-of-the-game candidates. And “tantalizing’’ is the word for Josh at his best. With ample rest between each of these Round 1 game – and maybe with the thought of a blow-it-up victimization in his head – Josh might just do more than tantalize here.
Well worth noting: J-Ho’s birthday is April 28. That’s a Tuesday night, Game 5 at San Antonio.
No cloud-filled b’day parties on the Riverwalk, OK, Josh?
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 3: DAMP’S LONG LEASH: Another pink-slip pinpointee from early March? Maybe Erick Dampier. So he showed up that night, too, with nine points and a handful of rebounds and most importantly with four blocks shots – one of them a help-out effort on Tim Duncan, another one a huge stuff of Tony Parker in the final minute – and grinding work that helped limit Duncan to 7-of-21 shooting.
Now, let’s not be “hopeful’’ with Duncan. (He’s old, his knees are betraying him, the window’s closing.) Let’s instead be “factual’’ with Duncan. (Did you see him in Game 82? Duncan finished with 20 points, 19 rebounds, six assists, four turnovers and a block in 33 minutes.) Waiting for this guy to fall apart is like waiting for sedimentary rocks to form.
After 12 years of doing this – and all 12 playoff years, right? – Tim Duncan has developed different gears for different road conditions. He plowed through the regular season and his team won 54. We just gave you his totals for Game 82, which represent another gear.
In the OT against the Hornets, He scored six points, had six rebounds, has two assists and blocked a Chris Paul layup.
Another gear.
And here comes yet another.
So how to combat all that?
It is tempting as a fan to ask for some Hollins here, to ask for some Singleton here. But Damp has a track record against Duncan. Consider that, and consider how coach Rick Carlisle has recently tried to find ways to keep Erick on the floor (assigned to guard NO’s David West and Utah’s Carlos Boozer, for instance).
We predict Damp gets a long leash.
One more thing that Dampier did in the March 4 meeting: He controlled the interior in such a way that SA devolved into becoming a “jump-shooting team’’ – the same cursed words so often used to describe Dallas’ offense.
But the Spurs rely on Finley and Bonner and Bowen and Hill and Mason and you know what? Like Dallas, a “jump-shooting team’’ is a big part of what they are. For better or worse.
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 4: ‘LETTING PARKER GET HIS’ -- The Spurs have one unsolvable puzzle – or at least, unsolvable for Dallas. Tony Parker scored 37 points in the March 4 meeting. Manu didn’t play in that game, of course, but strategically, the Spurs were at that time waiting for his return.
Now? There will be no Manu.
So there will probably be even more of Tony Parker.
What Dallas did against him defensively in the second half of that game represents a virtual strategic give-up: They assigned Jason Terry to him.
Now, Jet, if you’re reading this, don’t take offense. (Or, maybe you should; any source of inspiration is worth a shot.) Jason Terry is finally getting some national credit (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Sixth-Man-of-the-Year-Jason-Terry?urn=nba,156790) for being the emotional leader of the Mavs (and of the 20,000 paying customers every night at the AAC). In the last meeting, he accomplished plenty: 17 points, six assists, three steals.
But while Jet can do some waterbugging of his own on offense, he cannot stick with Parker defensively. Indeed, Terry is about as poor a defender as the Mavs have in their rotation. (Sorry, Jet.)
In theory, the Mavs could make Parker the No. 1 responsibility of Antoine Wright. (Unfortunately, he might be drawn to Roger Mason, who scored 23 from the other guard spot.) And they could let JJB have a turn. (Unfortunately, he was a non-factor in the last meeting.) But neither of those approaches did much to consistently slow down New Orleans’ Chris Paul, who burned Dallas last weekend for ... well, for about as many points as he wanted.
Parker can do the same. Assigning Jason Terry to Parker almost plays like a “Tony’s-gonna-get-his’’ concession. … and then the Mavs can worry about controlling the more-controllable other four Spurs on the floor.
In short, the Mavs averaged 99.8 ppg over the course of the year. The Spurs averaged 93.3. It is Dallas’ hope that whatever exploding Parker does in the next two weeks is within the confines of that 93.3.
REVIEW-WORTHY ITEM 5: DO THE SPURS DOUBLE-TEAM KIDD? – Some of what Popovich does with the double-team is a no-brainer: He double-teams Dirk, of course, especially when Nowitzki sets up in his new pet spot in the FT-line Iso. (you’ll notice that increasingly, Dallas is getting Dirk the ball deeper and deeper on that play; if opponents double-team him in the paint, it opens up a volume of inside-out passing lanes for the 7-footer.)
But there is a less orthodox double-team Pop used on March 4 that did not go well at all for the Spurs.
They tried to double-team-trap Jason Kidd on the wings.
We understand the logic; with Kidd calling the plays, it’s nice for the Spurs to force the ball from his hands. The double-team clogs up Kidd’s wish to orchestrate pick-and-rolls (which he did with ease against SA in the first half of that game) and as the shot clock ticks down, it almost forces quarterbacking responsibilities into the hands of a less-capable Mav.
But. …
It also assumes that Kidd won’t be able to find shooters in the corners. (A bad assumption.) It also assumes that those shooters will misfire. (Dallas’ lowly ranking as a 3-point-launching team makes that assumption less dubious, but still. … is Pop’s bet really that Jason Terry is going to lose the game from the corner?)
They will double-team Dirk. They can’t really double-team Josh or Jet. They might double-team Kidd, or – and here’s where it gets tricky – they might leave Kidd alone on the perimeter, gunk up his passing lanes, and force him to launch from the arc.
SA took its chances on that approach often enough on March 4 that in addition to all the other things Kidd did (seven rebounds and nine assists) he also shot 6-of-10 from the floor and 3-of-5 from the arc and he scored 17 points.
"It's all about (Kidd) running the show,'' says Dirk with praise of the point guard.
So do they cover Kidd? Double-team him? Or not cover him at all?
Tricky.
REVIEW-WORTH ITEM 6: THE A-THROUGH-Z FACTOR -- In the first half of that game, Dirk was so dialed in it seemed his made shots never dared touch rim. In the second half, he was even better, unveiling his offensive repertoire especially in the final few minutes, when he: Cut into the lane and dumped to Dampier for a dunk. … then hit a 3-pointer from the left wing that had him acting as if it was the dagger, as he wagged that tongue as SA called a timeout. … then came a left-wing jumper that pushed Dallas up 98-88 lead. … then came his involvement in some crisp ball movement, and an inside shot from Josh and an outside shot from Kidd … and then another tongue-wag.
“At that time of the game,’’ said Carlisle, "You want the ball in your best player's hands."
Dirk (the aforementioned “best player’’) certainly seemed like he wanted the ball in his hands down the stretch. He finished with 24 points, 12 rebounds, five assists and two tongue-wags. He did his damage early against the likes of this “Bonner’’ character but he did it late when it was Duncan who drew the unenviable task of chasing around The UberMan.
There is a lot of talk of “X-factors’’ and whatnot; Josh Howard even labels himself that way. But if any one Mavs in an “X,’’ then Dirk must be the rest of the letters A-through-Z. The Mavs can and have survived poor games by Howard and the rest.
They haven’t and won’t survive a poor series from perennial MVP candidate Dirk.