Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1

[timvp]

If the San Antonio Spurs are going to miraculously capture championship number five in the 2009 playoffs, the first order of business begins on Saturday in Game 1 of their first round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. These two Texas rivals will undoubtedly put on an entertaining show over the next few weeks.

As a Spurs fan, this was the first round matchup I dreaded all season. Even before Manu Ginobili went down injured, I didn't want the Spurs to have to go against the Mavs at the onset of the playoffs. Although Dallas has looked vulnerable at times this season, they always seem to give San Antonio trouble. Add to the mix the confidence and experience the Mavs gained in 2006 when they defeated the Spurs in Game 7, and the resulting concoction appears to be less than appetizing.

Since it was learned last night that the Spurs would have to take on the Mavs, I've re-watched a few of the hotly contested battles spanning back to the 2006 regular season to better get a handle on what exactly the Spurs are up against. I've concluded that San Antonio's success in this series will be determined by the answers to these five questions:

1) Can the Spurs slow down Dirk Nowitzki?

Nowitzki was absolutely outstanding against the Spurs in 2006. During that series, he averaged 27.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 73-for-80 at the free throw line. While other teams have had success slowing him down a little bit, the Spurs appear to be in the same boat as they were in 2006.

During the regular season, the Spurs have usually started Matt Bonner out on Nowitzki. At least to begin the series, that is likely to be the case once again. However, the Spurs are sure to throw a number of different defenders at Nowitzki. The problem is figuring out who exactly on this team matches up well with him.

Kurt Thomas is a very good defender but he's likely too slow. Bruce Bowen has had his moments against Nowitzki but most of his positives are overshadowed by the fact that Bowen isn't big enough to keep Nowitzki off the glass. Fabricio Oberto has had some success against him in international play but that hasn't seemed to translate well to the NBA. Drew Gooden may surprise but chances are that he's too new to the Spurs system to take on this monumental task.

The two most likely players Pop will turn to are Ime Udoka and Michael Finley. Personally, I think Udoka would be a disaster against Nowitzki. Nowitzki is both too big and too fast for Udoka. Finley is currently defending better than he ever has in his time as a Spur, but I can't imagine him having too much success against the lanky German. That said, my guess, based on Pop's coaching habits of the last few months, is that Finley on Nowitzki is the matchup we will see when it's money time.

In the month of April, Nowitzki has been very good. He's averaging 30.3 points per game on 55.1% field goal shooting in eight contests. He's been somewhat streaky this season but the Spurs are catching him on one of his hot streaks.

Most teams put a long small forward or a quick power forward on Nowitzki. The problem for the Spurs is they don't have such a player on the roster. Because of that, all signs point to Nowitzki being a monster yet again.

2) Will Tim Duncan be able to dominate?

Since the All-Star break, Duncan has been slowed by knee pain in both knees. The result has been diminished production and the need for more rest than usual. Thankfully, the extended downtime during the first round should give Duncan an opportunity to get the needed rest. Hopefully he uses that rest wisely because the Spurs will need him to be near the top of his game.

Out of any team in the league, the Mavs are arguably the most brazen when it comes to defending Duncan without a double-team. Their strategy in the last handful of years has been to force Duncan to carry the offensive load for most of the game while throwing sporadic double-teams at him from various angles. Dallas' goal is to keep the shooters quiet while keeping Duncan guessing at when and where the doubles will be sent.

If they use that strategy this series, it could be wildly successful if Duncan can't score in one-on-one situations. The bad news for the Spurs is that Duncan has struggled since the All-Star break to consistently score in such situations.

However, the good news is that the precedence is in the Spurs' favor. In 2006, Duncan was struggling with injury near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. But against the mostly single-teaming Dallas defense, he was able to lift his output to average 32.3 points per game in that seven-game series.

The nightmare scenario for the Spurs would be if the Mavs could get away with using Nowitzki to defend Duncan. If that happens and Dallas surrounds Nowitzki with perimeter players, the defensive mismatches for the Spurs would be virtually impossible to overcome.

3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?

Quietly, Parker graduated from star to superstar during the regular season. He put the team on his back on many occasions and willed the Spurs to victory. His 2008-09 regular season campaign was fantastic.

But now it's the playoffs and the game will be totally different. There's a big difference between being a superstar regular season player and a superstar postseason player. With scouting intensified, teams will be able to throw looks at Parker that he never experienced during the regular season.

I'm hopeful he can continue to play at a very high level but it is far from certain. If Duncan isn't near 100% and with no Manu Ginobili to shoulder some of the pressure, the Mavs could focus their entire defensive scheme on slowing down Parker.

If the situation arises that Duncan can't carry the offense versus single-team coverage, it will be up to Parker and only Parker to ensure that the offense continues to flow. That is a tall challenge for any player in the league, especially one who is new to the role.

4) Defensively, can the Spurs execute the necessary rotations?

When the Spurs gameplan for an opponent, their first goal is to locate what Pop likes to refer to as the "head of the snake". In other words, which player on the other team is responsible for generating the offense? The answer to that question is who the Spurs typically key on and try to force out of their comfort zone.

The main problem against the Mavs and the reason why they've had a hard time handling Dallas in the last few seasons is the fact that the Mavs don't really have a head of the snake. Rather, they have a variety of players that can generate offense. The result is a Spurs defense that can't narrow its focus and instead must depend on synchronized rotations by all five players on the court.

Against the Spurs, the Mavs do a great job of spacing the floor and then penetrating from different angles with different ballhandlers. Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, Howard and Barea have all shown an ability to cause havoc off the dribble. Any sort of late rotation or error in rotation and the Mavs typically end up with an open shot.

A lot of teams overcome this issue by applying pressure on the Mavs and then switching on penetration. The Spurs, however, don't have the personnel to employ that strategy. When they've tried to do it in the past against Dallas, the Mavs have simply made it their mission to attack Duncan and get him into foul trouble or force Parker to switch onto Nowitzki or Howard.

If the Spurs can make crisp rotations, they can survive the upcoming penetration onslaught from the Mavs. We'll see if the defense, which has been quite shaky at times this season, is up for the challenge.

5) What will the Spurs do to stay competitive on the glass?

Rebounding was a big reason why the Mavs were able to beat the Spurs in the 2006 postseason. In all seven games of that series, the Mavs were able to corral more boards than the Spurs.

Statistically, the Spurs have been a great defensive rebounding team this season. However, those stats will go out the window if Pop goes small to keep a quicker defender on Nowitzki. With a lineup that features Finley on Nowitzki, the Spurs will struggle to rebound.

This is another area where the Spurs will miss Ginobili. In small ball lineups, Ginobili has always been the Spurs' second best rebounder next to Duncan. Without Ginobili, Duncan will be left to fend for himself.

The obvious solution is not to go small. If Pop is comfortable playing two bigs, the Spurs should be fine on the glass. The problem is that Pop has usually opted to go small rather than give the Mavs the advantage of Nowitzki going against a slower player not accustomed to defending on the perimeter.

Another idea would be to play Udoka or George Hill more minutes. Both have shown an ability to rebound but both have also struggled offensively at times. Pop will have to judge whether or not their added rebounding boost is worth a drop in the team's offensive efficiency.

Conclusion

After considering all the aspects of the matchup between the Spurs and the Mavs, I regretfully have to admit that the evidence points to the Mavs being more likely to win this series. Dallas is just a very bad matchup that causes a multitude of problems. With Ginobili, I'd say the Spurs win in six games. Without Ginobili? The evidence points to the Mavs winning in six games.

The Mavs face their own set of question marks heading into the series but their questions aren't as complex. They are the healthier team, which also results in them being the deeper team. They have the experience of how to beat the Spurs. They are playing their best basketball of the year. They have multiple players who the Spurs have never really gotten a handle on (Nowitzki, Howard, Terry). And perhaps most importantly, both their offensive and defensive philosophies were created with beating the Spurs in mind. It's no accident that the Mavs matchup so well against the Spurs; it's by design.

Even though I give the Mavs a 60-65% chance to win the series, the Spurs are far from helpless. In Part 2, I'll give a player-by-player breakdown of what the Spurs need in order to advance to the second round.

[BruceBowenFan]

Interesting. Thanks for the break down.

[romain.star]

great read. Thanks !

[redzero]

Nobody can slow down Dirk. It's best just to worry about his teammates.

[ploto]

Kurt Thomas is a very good defender but he's likely too slow. Bruce Bowen has had his moments against Nowitzki but most of his positives are overshadowed by the fact that Bowen isn't big enough to keep Nowitzki off the glass. Fabricio Oberto has had some success against him in international play but that hasn't seemed to translate well to the NBA. Drew Gooden may surprise but chances are that he's too new to the Spurs system to take on this monumental task.

The two most likely players Pop will turn to are Ime Udoka and Michael Finley. Personally, I think Udoka would be a disaster against Nowitzki. Nowitzki is both too big and too fast for Udoka. Finley is currently defending better than he ever has in his time as a Spur, but I can't imagine him having too much success against the lanky German. That said, my guess, based on Pop's coaching habits of the last few months, is that Finley on Nowitzki is the matchup we will see when it's money time.


Gee, and I got slammed for saying this very same thing in another thread.

[polandprzem]

Yea well Dallas have multiple ofensive weapons like timvp said. They can generate ofense from many players and from many lineups.
The problem for the spurs will be to match their lineups. If spurs won't do it Dallas can go on a huge run, and it will be hard for the spurs to get back into the game.

As for Spurs lineup. It will be mostly Tim with Bonner nad Gooden on the froncourt. I don't know if Gooden is good enough to play against Dirk one on one. Carlisle probably will play Dirk on isos. So it won't be a big of disadventage for Gooden even if he do not know spurs schems that good.

The worst thing is that deadly screenrolls which Terry plays with Dirk at the top of a key. Both players can hit midrangers and longrangers. Also Terry can penetrate. It will be tough to defend.


Second unit will have a big problem with Barea, he seems to dig inside at will agaist the spurs. And X- factor for Dallas could be a Brandon Bass. That guy can rebound and provides energy of the bench.


We need shooters, we need Tims domination (we need to force dallas to double Tim on low block), and we need Udoka and his rebounding skills. But is there anybody that Udoka can defend? Probably only Kidd ... Dirk, Terry, Josh would eat him alive.

[kace]

As for Spurs lineup. It will be mostly Tim with Bonner nad Gooden on the froncourt. I don't know if Gooden is good enough to play against Dirk one on one. Carlisle probably will play Dirk on isos. So it won't be a big of disadventage for Gooden even if he do not know spurs schems that good.


with Tim and Gooden on the court together, who will Dirk defend ?
i'm confident that both of them can expose him on one on one

[polandprzem]

with Tim and Gooden on the court together, who will Dirk defend ?
i'm confident that both of them can expose him on one on one

It depends what will Tim gonna be able to do.
Also spurs were not playing Gooden and Tim in the same time. Mostly Gooden was a sub for Tim.

It will be intresting. I'm not worried about spurs ofense. The problem will be to hold mavs in check, not let them make runs. It's not 2005 spurs where we could run with Suns and being able to shut them in 4th good enough to win.

[1Parker1]

It all depends on which Mavs team we will see in the playoffs. Dirk and Howard have been very streaky this season when it comes to their offensive game...unfortunately since it's the begining of the playoffs, they are probably a lot fresher and could get hot early.

I agree, out of all the matchups...Mavs was probably the worst. But the bright spot is...Spurs won't have to waste so much time and energy traveling!

[will_spurs]

I think you're selling Parker a bit short - but in a way that's exactly the kind of lack of respect that is prevalent in the whole league, and that might help Parker in the end. I'm confident he can shoulder the load.

[sribb43]

Gooden is not disciplined enough defensively to guard Dirk, he would go for all those fakes Dirk can throw at you..

[Bruno]

Nice preview. :tu

A big question make is who Pop will put on Dirk. Against Mavs, Spurs have played this year 74% of the time with a 2 bigs lineup and 26% with a small ball unit. Spurs have added some quality at the PF/C position with Gooden and lost at the SG/SF with Manu being out. IMO, Pop will try to stay big as much as eh can.

Another key is that Duncan needs to be aggressive (if his knees allow him). Without Manu, every Spurs' player needs to go a little more. Another edge of being aggressive for him, is that Mavs don't have another option to defend him besides Dampier. If Tim can put Dampier in foul trouble, it will be significantly easier for him to score.

And I agree with your analysis that Mavs has the edge. I even give them a 70/30 edge.

[Findog]

Great stuff. I think the Spurs are going to win this series in 7. They have HCA, they are better coached, they are the mentally tougher and more disciplined team, although Kidd has started to rub off on his teammates in that regard.

The Mavs are indeed peaking at the right time, but I've always been a big believer in looking at a team's entire body of work. Duncan always finds another gear to go to in the playoffs, and Parker is playing the best ball of his career at a time when the Mavs are least equipped to defend him. The Mavs have been a two steps forward, one step back team the entire season. Lots of embarrassing quit jobs against Boston (35 point loss), Cleveland (44 point swing), etc. They've come together lately, but I still don't trust them quite enough to win a playoff series against San Antonio w/o HCA.

[polandprzem]

Great stuff. I think the Spurs are going to win this series in 7. They have HCA, they are better coached, they are the mentally tougher and more disciplined team, although Kidd has started to rub off on his teammates in that regard.

The Mavs are indeed peaking at the right time, but I've always been a big believer in looking at a team's entire body of work. Duncan always finds another gear to go to in the playoffs, and Parker is playing the best ball of his career at a time when the Mavs are least equipped to defend him. The Mavs have been a two steps forward, one step back team the entire season. Lots of embarrassing quit jobs against Boston (35 point loss), Cleveland (44 point swing), etc. They've come together lately, but I still don't trust them quite enough to win a playoff series against San Antonio w/o HCA.

What a fan of Dallas are you?

[kace]

Another key is that Duncan needs to be aggressive (if his knees allow him). Without Manu, every Spurs' player needs to go a little more. Another edge of being aggressive for him, is that Mavs don't have another option to defend him besides Dampier. If Tim can put Dampier in foul trouble, it will be significantly easier for him to score.


that's exaclty where i think we could benefit of Gooden as i said to poland.

with Tim and Gooden together, we have two post threats and i just can't see two bigs able to defend them in the mavs lineup. surely not Dirk.

We should have problems in this serie on defense with the matchup nightmare that is Dirk and the lot of offensive options that the Mavs have. but i really think that on the other side, the mavs have no answer for TP and can not defend two offensive players in the post.

The biggest problem with manu out is that we have ONLY ONE player able to drive to the rim with TP. Only one in our whole lineup, that's really not enough. but against the Mavs, we should be able to hurt them inside, so TP could be enough to penetrate. well, i hope so.

[EricB]

May I note though one huge reason the Mavericks were able to beat the Spurs in 2006 is no longer a part of the rotation for Dallas and thats Jerry Stackhouse. IMO he was the xfactor in that series and the reason Dallas won. Dallas IMO does not have that xfactor anymore.

[CubanMustGo]

I just see Dallas playing better ball right now than SA. The Spurs strung a few wins together at the end of the season but a lot of them were the fluky type that easily could have gone the other way. SA is still trying to figure out how to play without Manu, and the HCA doesn't mean as much since the Spurs have not been all that impressive at home this season. The 2006 series win has the Mavs thinking they can win instead of worrying about how they will lose.

I think timvp has it right, Mavs in 6. :depressed

[loveforthegame]

Awesome preview. Thanks.

3 big differences from the 2006 series is that Dallas no longer has Harris, Diop, or Stackhouse. Harris was able to get to the basket easily. Diop was a nice backup defender on Duncan, and Stackhouse came up with the big shots when needed.

No Ginobli sucks but I'm confident Mason can help fill in with the scoring. He really needs to step up and match Terry's production or surpass him.

There is no answer for Dirk. Like there is no answer for when Kidd posts up Parker. The big decision to me is let them have those favorable matchups without double teaming and leaving the 3 point shooters open. That's when we seem to get in trouble.

Team effort is needed on the boards.

[xtremesteven33]

Team Defense will lead this team to victory.

Everything else will fall into place.

[kace]

it's funny how most of the spurstalk members like to talk smack about the mavs and bring the spurs four titles to dismiss them all year long and now that we have to meet them in the PO, everyone seem to agree that we will probably lose and that the Mavs are so good.

Manu's inury doesn't justify all the fear i see about the mavs.

either you think the Mavs are great and you give them their due respect all year long, or you think they suck but then you have to keep on talking smack when we have to meet them in the PO.


Mavs are a good team.
Dirk is a great player and a nice guy.
Terry is a good player and an asshole.
Cuban is an asshole.
Spurs will finish this thing in five. that's all.

:flag:

[benefactor]

Drew Gooden is the X-factor in all of this. The Mavericks have no interior defenders that can stay with him. This should allow him to shoulder much of the offensive load on the second unit. Hopefully his rebounding comes back around also.

If Gooden can give us 15/7 for the series, I like our chances.

[LEONARD]

Love it

[monosylab1k]

ROFL @ Leonard trying to post in a bunch of Mavs/Spurs threads like he has any idea what's going on. The dude already said he jumped off the Mavs bandwagon this season


Don't own any...I've watched about 1.5 games this season...don't really give a damn these days...


Watched basically every game from around '02 thru last season...burned out on the team

[hater]

you forget one important fact. The mavs are still the same old chokers. As long as Duncan is relatively healthy and if Spurs put pressure on the mavs and they win the first 2 at home. The mavs will fold like they always do.

Spurs in 7

[hater]

Drew Gooden is the X-factor in all of this. The Mavericks have no interior defenders that can stay with him. This should allow him to shoulder much of the offensive load on the second unit. Hopefully his rebounding comes back around also.

If Gooden can give us 15/7 for the series, I like our chances.

Gooden and Hill need to have good series and SPurs will win.

[ElNono]

I disagree with timvp on this one. I think the Mavs has more mismatches than we do, and after watching their games for most of the season, they've lost any kind of defensive identity they used to have with Avery. This is a team that gives up almost 100 points per game, and plays to outscore you.
That said, let the games begin.

[Blackjack]

Nice preview.:tu

To me, Dallas definitely looks to be in the driver's seat. They're simply playing closer to "Mavs ball" than the Spurs are to playing "Spurs ball", at this point in time

The loss of Ginobili is basically the equivalent to taking away Terry from the Mavs and having a hobbled Howard. Wouldn't be too optimistic about the Mavs chances against the Spurs if that were the case, so I can't honestly say I'm too optimistic with the Spurs' current circumstance.

That said, I give the Spurs a decent shot to pull this series out. (Helps that there's no game 2 scheduling losses like in '06 and '08 with the Mavs and Lakers series, respectfully) While the Mavs are closer to playing their brand of ball than the Spurs are, the Mavs brand isn't at as high as of standard as it's been in the past.

As far as Dirk goes, I'd like to see him taken out of the game as much as possible in the first 3 quarters. Doubles, ball-denial, etc., don't let him get comfortable early. Make him a facillitator for the first 3 quarters and make him make shots, not free-throws, to win the game down the stretch.(I'll take my chances with Dirk having to make jump shots, to aggressive defense, and the ensuing free-throws, any day of the week) At the end of the day, as far as Dirk goes, the Spurs' best defense against him might be their offense. If Duncan and Gooden can get Dirk on their back in the post, they might be able to put him on the bench, or get him to play tenative, due to foul trouble.

The Mavs were obviously built to compete against the Spurs with their mid-range game and ability to attack off the dribble (seems they almost had Milwaukee in mind when building the team) so the matchcup is definitely not an ideal one for the Spurs, but it is doable.

Tony and Tim will have to play at the top of their game, the role-player's will have to step-up and knock down their outside shots to keep the floor spaced, they'll need to control/manage the free-throw line on both ends of the floor, and they've got to rebound, Rebound, REBOUND!

It's going to be difficult at times watching this team's offense in the half-court with the limited slashing, which will be made even more difficult if Tim isn't able to command a double/get the defense leaning, and there's going to be stretches where it looks like the Spurs' defense just isn't up to snuff, but I'm hopeful that this team's heart and grit will find a way to get the job done.

Accept the team for who they are, at this point in time.

Cheer your ass off and give them the support they deserve, for all they've been and done, over the course of time.

And believe they can get it done, one more time.

[duncan228]

Great preview timvp. I'm gathering the national stuff, and, as we already know, you give us a better view of our team than any of them. Thanks for the time and effort, it's appreciated.

[G-Nob]

REPOST...

Why I'm scared... :(

Most seasons going into the "second season", we've had at least an idea that the spurs could easily dictate a series with their defense. Because the defense has not been consistant this season, it gives me great disgust to say that I don't like the tempo in which this series will be played. This is gonna be an up and down series with multiple games in the 100s for both teams and I dont think we can beat Dallas over seven games with that format.

Tony will be Tony but Bruce must be Bruce. Whether he's playing dirk or terry. His defense will dictate the tempo in the ballgame. If the spurs can somehow slow the game down, they're chances of winning will be much greater.

Mason has to be ginobili. Not with super manu intangibles, but with his offense. He must provide that offensive punch that we got used to seeing earlier in the season or the Spurs will be in danger of going on long dry offensive spells much to their demise in 2008.

Tim has to impose his will as much as his knees will let him. Diop is no longer in the middle, so Tim must destroy Dampier, repeatedly.

We need Gooden to be our Nazr. Rebound and provide a smidge of offense. Drew Gooden is capable of going off. If he does, the Spurs will be in great shape. Also, keeping Brandon Bass in check on the boards will be his number one priority.

Who's running the backup point? Vaughn can not keep up with Barea. I fear this matchup because I know the mavs are at a huge advantage in this area.

The success of this series will also go to the team that can do a better job shutting down the perimeter shooters. Dallas has deadly shooters that can kill you on the run. The Spurs have to step up their Transition D to make sure dallas doesn't score 10 points in 35 seconds as they can. On the flip side, Matt Bonner must find his touch once again. His shooting will be crucial when dallas decides to make a priority out of keeping tony out of the lane. Note to Matt: don't think, just shoot.

Protect the house. Dallas is putrid on the road. The spurs cannot allow dallas to steal one because the AAC, in all its rediculousness, will not be an easy place to pull out a win.

No series prediction here. The spurs will need all hands on deck for this one. Any kind of championship moxy the Spurs have left will be shown in this series. The only question is, will it be enough?

Believe?

[ToughActinTinactin]

I believe the Mavs are going to be unpleasantly surprised by the Spurs. Pop's got this.

[LEONARD]

ROFL @ Leonard trying to post in a bunch of Mavs/Spurs threads like he has any idea what's going on. The dude already said he jumped off the Mavs bandwagon this season

Pulling quotes from when the Mavs were 2-3 this season...

and incomplete quotes at that:


Watched basically every game from around '02 thru last season...burned out on the team, but not going to waste my time creating threads here crying about it. If I do start watching more soon, I still won't sit around here whining...if they're not good they're not good. It's not the end of the world...

and from a thread by you crying about how much the Mavs suck, no less...Mr #1 Mavs Fan... :lol

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=109191

I've watched most of the games since the All-Star break...

and I care a lot because they're playing the Spurs...beating the Spurs is really all I care about, just because of the chaos it would cause on this forum... :downspin:

[completely deck]

What don't you get? And what does that quote have to do with this thread?

Tell me it was a fake post. I don't understand how with all of the knowledge you have of the Spurs, you could count them out.

[Spurs Brazil]

Great read timvp

For me TD is the big key. If he's health enough to score one on one against Dampier and the other Mavs bigs we'll win

[Whisky Dog]

You can basically throw the 2006 series out the window as these two teams are completely different now. No Devin Harris, Stackhouse, Diop. No Manu, Barry, a lot less Bowen. This series is going to come down to the health of SA vs the ability to perform of the Mavs. If healthy, you know Duncan will rise up as he always has. If healthy. OTOH, the Mavs have a history of sometimes rising up in the playoffs and sometimes laying flat. Which Mavs will show up? How healthy will Duncan be? Will guys like Mason, Bonner, and Gooden step up? A lot of unknowns that will decide the series.

I'm cool with the matchup because the alternatives were Portland or Houston w/o HCA. Both of those would have been nightmare matchups. The Spurs just don't match up well with anyone on paper anymore.

[timvp]

Tell me it was a fake post. I don't understand how with all of the knowledge you have of the Spurs, you could count them out.
It's not a fake post and I'm not counting the Spurs out. I'm giving them up to a 40% chance to win a series without Ginobili and with a hobbled Duncan against a team that was constructed to specifically beat the Spurs. Due to the circumstances, the Spurs have less room for error than the Mavs. I don't think that should be too shocking of a revelation.

[Obstructed_View]

The Mavs are also playing well right now on both sides of the ball, and all their shooters are hot. Add to that the fact that they have huge advantages in depth AND health, it's not a stretch to suggest that the Spurs have their work cut out for them if they want to advance.

[gospursgojas]

3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?




Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

[Obstructed_View]

Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

http://i137.photobucket.com/albums/q228/GeneralPurpose/Spurstalk/mfftl.jpg

[Trimble87]

I know its said a lot... but TIMVP you and Duncan228 are what make these forums worth reading. Fantastic break-down of the series. Love being able to discuss the series and games without falling into the "Im a spurs fan we're gonna pwn yous!!!111" steroetype that so many basketball fans seccum to.

I 100% agree with the analysis and think it will all come down to Duncan playing well and a few bounces going our way.

Looking forward to part 2.

[Kori Ellis]

Somebody will try the "put Tony on his ass" defensive strategy.

That's when we'll see what Tony is made of

That didn't go well for the Suns when they tried leveling him with Shaq. :lol

[temujin]

Worst possible matchup, other than the Lakers, against the only other team with experience of serious games.

I'll buy Timvp' arguments 1-3, not 4 and 5: you need rotation and rebounds against any teams. I think the Spurs can execute and get that.

Having watched as many Mavs games as Spurs, I'd add three points.

1) Key for the mavs will be Terry. Him, more than Novitski is the barometer of how they play.
2) I don't see any mavs able to guard Gooden. Whether they play two bigs or decide to go small. Expecially if Gooden plays along Duncan. I have seen glimples over, the last games, of the Cavs player that impressed me most in 07 finals. I would't be surprised to see a lot of him in action.
3) There is an obvious matchup that goes against Dallas.
Popovich-Carlisle.
Carlisle is flat and has shown very little leadership. I would rate him next to karl as the worst coach of the lot.

Finally, the real and only reason why this series will be long and Mavs can seriously win.

Mr. Emanuel Ginobili out.

[Kori Ellis]

Even with Manu playing, this would have been a difficult series for the Spurs because of Dirk. Since no one matches up well with him on the roster, Pop goes small far too often, and then the Spurs get destroyed on the glass. That wouldn't have really changed with Manu -- the series would still be long and hard-fought.

Instead of the Spurs always adjusting and going small, forcing a perimeter player to guard Dirk, I'd love to see them hold more ground and stick to their gameplan. Let Carlisle be the one doing the adjusting, instead of the Spurs adjusting to the Mavs.

If someone among the bigs can, at the very least, not get destroyed by Dirk, I would avoiding going small for long stretches.

[Obstructed_View]

That didn't go well for the Suns when they tried leveling him with Shaq. :lol

It worked really well in 2006 when Ron Artest did it. If you remember, Parker was only in the game because the Spurs didn't have a backup for him...

[temujin]

Make no mistake: Duncan will be there, even on one leg.
Spurs can still loose, though.

[Brazil]

I've already said that but I don't like the playing mavs idea neither. But you know what there's nothing we can do, so let's see the good side of the thing. IMO we have at least 10 good reasons to believe.
1) We have the HCA
2) We don't need to travel a lot
3) The schedule is reasonnable and there will be time to rest between the game
4) We will play w/o any pression a defeat would be logic also, the stress is on the mavs
5) Tim seems to be in shape for the POs
6) We already played 40 games w/o Manu
7) Pop is stuborn and all but he bring his team to the SW title for a good 58-24 w/o Manu. He is still one of the greatest coach of the league.
8) Tony Parker
9) We have all the weapons we need in the clutch moments see mase, tp, finley
10) Gooden

[Kori Ellis]

It worked really well in 2006 when Ron Artest did it. If you remember, Parker was only in the game because the Spurs didn't have a backup for him...

Parker was injured in the 2006 playoffs. He got hurt in the Sac series and then again in the beginning of the Mavs series. His thighs/calves were wrecked. One of the games against the Mavs, he was even scratched the night before the game but decided to make a go of it the next morning. But Parker is 10 times the player he was 3 years ago. I don't doubt Tony Parker in this series.

[BUMP]

Parker was injured in the 2006 playoffs. He got hurt in the Sac series and then again in the beginning of the Mavs series. His thighs/calves were wrecked. One of the games against the Mavs, he was even scratched the night before the game but decided to make a go of it the next morning. But Parker is 10 times the player he was 3 years ago. I don't doubt Tony Parker in this series.

are you serious?

i never heard anything about that. which game was it?

[td4mvp21]

I really think Pop should forgo small ball and give extended minutes to a Duncan-Gooden frontcourt. I think Gooden is at least quick enough not to get burned (I may be wrong) by Dirk and give up a layup. I don't think he is going to be a Dirk stopper or anything, I don't even think he's that good of a defender, but I think its the best big option we have at this point. Also, that would make Dirk accountable on defense if Pop would go to Gooden in the post. Dirk wouldn't just be sitting in the corner on Bowen.

[temujin]

Novitski had some awful, awful games this year and he does look slower, on average.
This is not 2006 Novitski anymore.
He has looked really bad on defense, lateral mobility and slow rotations, in general.
I'd go with two bigs most of the times, and play Thomas and Gooden way more than Bonner.

The other weak point of Dallas I noticed is they really don't like to run. Even when they play small ball, which they do less often that 06 and 07.
Anytime I have seen them accept a run-n-gun stretch, they get out of their game very quickly. You start to see the oldies's age.
Probably that's why they were so afraid of Denver.

Unfortunately the Spurs are not the ideal team to exploit that.

[Kori Ellis]

are you serious?

i never heard anything about that. which game was it?

I don't remember which game exactly. He had got hurt at the end of the Sac series and again in Game 1 or 2 or the Mavs series. He had huge thigh pads due to contusions, plus had a calf injury. I think it was Game 2 that he was almost scratched, but I honestly don't remember. I just remember us discussing it among the press before the tip. Apparently he could barely walk the night before, but the training staff got him ready to go.

[z0sa]

It's not a fake post and I'm not counting the Spurs out. I'm giving them up to a 40% chance to win a series without Ginobili and with a hobbled Duncan against a team that was constructed to specifically beat the Spurs. Due to the circumstances, the Spurs have less room for error than the Mavs. I don't think that should be too shocking of a revelation.

the shockng revelation came at the end of the preview when you counted the spurs out despite Tim's most positive looking game in months having just elapsed and the Spurs earning homecourt. giving us a 35% chance when we have HC advantage? a 35% chance when Tim just said the pain is basically gone and played like it? ....

[temujin]

HCA means very little.
Spurs have won nearly as many games on the road as in S. Antonio this year.
Probably more close games than at home.

I would have loved to get Portland, so inexperienced, so green. The only player with any tyaste of serious basketball being Fernandez.

[z0sa]

HCA means very little.

Besides just making the playoffs, why do teams win during the regular season?

Oh yeah. For HC advantage since, besides health, it is the single most important non-basketball related factor in winning.

Not having homecourt advantage in a series automatically puts the odds against you, which is why Timvp giving the spurs a 35% chance means he'd be giving the Spurs maybe 25%? 15% chance of winning? if they had to face the mavs without HC.

[temujin]

Besides just making the playoffs, why do teams win during the regular season?

Oh yeah. For HC advantage since, besides health, it is the single most important non-basketball related factor in winning.

In the West, the only reason for winning in the regular season was to avoid the Lakers.
HC is important for a young team, not much for a team of veterans like the Spurs.

Spurs had HC in 2006, last time I recall.

[jack sommerset]

1-4 answer is no and 5 answer is nothing. Mavs in 6.

[The Truth #6]

We have no one to guard Dirk so I see no reason to run away from our strengths in trying to stop him.

We do have hope for guarding Terry with Bowen or Hill, but Hill has greater quickness and stamina. Pop would be foolish not to give Hill a chance. If he fails then let him sit, but there's no reason not to try. We have to take a reasonable risk, and Hill is a reasonable risk.

Everyone knows that we need Gooden to play big this series if we're going to win. He's another reasonable risk we'll need to take a chance on. As many have said, he and Duncan should be given time together to make Dirk play D. And if they go large and put Bass out there as well, then we've already taken them out of their game.

Bonner looks to be completely useless in this series. His advantage as a long-distance shooting big is that he takes big players out of their comfort zone in the paint. Dirk's comfort zone is hiding out on the wing. Allowing Dirk to guard Bonner is basically allowing Dirk to rest. That is the opposite of what our strategy should be.

Mason could be exposed at the backup PG if he's expected to keep up with Barrea. Mason already has problems initiating the offense (as in, an offense that isn't just him shooting a long jumper from the top of the circle). Mason, not Hill, could become the "Beno 05" backup PG disaster that Pop worries about. If teams look to aggressively trap Mason, things could get ugly. It was already "not great" against regular season defensive schemes. For us to beat the Mavs, Mason can't become a liability at the 1.

[z0sa]

In the West, the only reason for winning in the regular season was to avoid the Lakers.

So homecourt means nothing? Gotcha, you have no clue what you're talking about.


Spurs had HC in 2006, last time I recall.

And if they hadn't earned it, how bad would they have lost in that series, especially down 3-1?

Without HC the spurs dont pull out a 1 point victory in Dallas come Game 5 to push the series back San Antonio. And the Mavericks would have kept a 20 point lead at home in Game 7.
Your logic is very flawed, HCA is always important no matter who is on the team or who you're playing.

[temujin]

So homecourt means nothing? Gotcha, you have no clue what you're talking about.



And if they hadn't earned it, how bad would they have lost in that series, especially down 3-1?

Without HC the spurs dont pull out a 1 point victory in Dallas come Game 5 to push the series back San Antonio. And the Mavericks would have kept a 20 point lead at home in Game 7.

What would have happened in the Waterloo battle if Blucher's army would have showed up one hour later?
I guess you know that too.

Your logic is very flawed, HCA is always important no matter who is on the team or who you're playing.[/QUOTE]

My logic is never flawed.
My opinion might.

[temujin]

We have no one to guard Dirk so I see no reason to run away from our strengths in trying to stop him.

We do have hope for guarding Terry with Bowen or Hill, but Hill has greater quickness and stamina. Pop would be foolish not to give Hill a chance. If he fails then let him sit, but there's no reason not to try. We have to take a reasonable risk, and Hill is a reasonable risk.

Everyone knows that we need Gooden to play big this series if we're going to win. He's another reasonable risk we'll need to take a chance on. As many have said, he and Duncan should be given time together to make Dirk play D. And if they go large and put Bass out there as well, then we've already taken them out of their game.

Bonner looks to be completely useless in this series. His advantage as a long-distance shooting big is that he takes big players out of their comfort zone in the paint. Dirk's comfort zone is hiding out on the wing. Allowing Dirk to guard Bonner is basically allowing Dirk to rest. That is the opposite of what our strategy should be.

Mason could be exposed at the backup PG if he's expected to keep up with Barrea. Mason already has problems initiating the offense (as in, an offense that isn't just him shooting a long jumper from the top of the circle). Mason, not Hill, could become the "Beno 05" backup PG disaster that Pop worries about. If teams look to aggressively trap Mason, things could get ugly. It was already "not great" against regular season defensive schemes. For us to beat the Mavs, Mason can't become a liability at the 1.


I agree, except for Mason. The Mavs have not been trapping anyone this season.

[024]

i don't agree that the spurs only have a 30-40% chance of winning. i think it's more at 50%. mavs and spurs are evenly matched this time around. before ginobili's season ending injury i would put the lakers at the top, the spurs at the second level, and every other playoff team in the third level. in other words, spurs would only be one step behind the lakers while the rest of the west are two steps behind them. now with ginobili's injury, spurs are in the same boat as everyone else.

if the mavs played any other team, it would result in a pretty assured first round exit. but because of matchup problems, the spurs would definitely have to try harder than other teams. any other team not named the lakers would probably have a 60-70% of defeating the mavs. spurs are just as good as those teams but again, due to matchup problems, spurs only have 50% chance with HCA.

[completely deck]

It's not a fake post and I'm not counting the Spurs out. I'm giving them up to a 40% chance to win a series without Ginobili and with a hobbled Duncan against a team that was constructed to specifically beat the Spurs. Due to the circumstances, the Spurs have less room for error than the Mavs. I don't think that should be too shocking of a revelation.

Pretty much this:


the shockng revelation came at the end of the preview when you counted the spurs out despite Tim's most positive looking game in months having just elapsed and the Spurs earning homecourt. giving us a 35% chance when we have HC advantage? a 35% chance when Tim just said the pain is basically gone and played like it? ....

You wrote an article on how we could and all, but why would you count us out of it? I mean you say in one way that we have a 40% chance to make it out of this series, but you say that you're not counting them out. I don't get it. Anything more than 50% means they're out of it, logically. That gives the Mavericks, in your logic, the edge to win the series. So you're admitting defeat before game 1. I'm not saying you're wrong, and I'm not saying you're right, but you can't give the Spurs a 40% chance to win and still count them in it.

[temujin]

Last thing: I have seen Dallas play zone (an old-style 2-3) in more than one game.
In a Lakers game, they were being smashed in all aspects and they got back into the game with this zone. Lakers blew a 15 points lead, but eventually won.
I have seen them play a zone with Denver also, after they were being heavily out-rebounded.

If they can't stop Parker' penetrations, I bet they switch to that.

[Obstructed_View]

Parker was injured in the 2006 playoffs. He got hurt in the Sac series and then again in the beginning of the Mavs series. His thighs/calves were wrecked. One of the games against the Mavs, he was even scratched the night before the game but decided to make a go of it the next morning. But Parker is 10 times the player he was 3 years ago. I don't doubt Tony Parker in this series.

Precisely. He received the thigh injury when he was in at the end of a game (because Pop didn't trust Beno) and Ron Artest fouled him hard. Like I said, it worked great that year because Parker was never healthy enough to get past Harris. He gutted out game 1 and then Pop decided to pull all the centers to allow the Mavs an easier path to the rim after they got past Parker, presumably because nobody but Duncan showed up for game 2.

[Blackjack]

Precisely. He received the thigh injury when he was in at the end of a game (because Pop didn't trust Beno) and Ron Artest fouled him hard. Like I said, it worked great that year because Parker was never healthy enough to get past Harris. He gutted out game 1 and then Pop decided to pull all the centers to allow the Mavs an easier path to the rim after they got past Parker, presumably because nobody but Duncan showed up for game 2.

The Ron Artest foul actually resulted in a hip-strain injury.(or something to that effect)

Tony later took a pretty bad knee to the quad, after Devin Harris drew a charge in the open court,IIRC, which was in game 1 or 2.

[Obstructed_View]

The Ron Artest foul actually resulted in a hip-strain injury.(or something to that effect)

Tony later took a pretty bad knee to the quad, after Devin Harris drew a charge in the open court,IIRC, which was in game 1 or 2.

Six of one, half dozen of the other. The Artest foul caused the original injury, and it was exacerbated in the Mavs series. Call it what you want, but the chronology and the situations are correct. If memory serves, the contact from Artest that hurt Parker was actually after the whistle.

[Blackjack]

Six of one, half dozen of the other. The Artest foul caused the original injury, and it was exacerbated in the Mavs series. Call it what you want, but the chronology and the situations are correct. If memory serves, the contact from Artest that hurt Parker was actually after the whistle.

My point was there were two different injuries, to two different parts of his body. I wasn't trying to be some know-it-all ass, by the way.

I can't recall if the Artest foul was after the whistle or not, but I'm pretty sure it was excessive/unnecessary.

Either way, Tony was pretty jacked-up going into that series, and got jacked-up in game 1 or 2. (Now that I think about it, I seem to remember Tony joking with the reporters, after the knee from Harris, about how he was just evening out the injuries to each side of his body.)

[Obstructed_View]

My point was there were two different injuries, to two different parts of his body. I wasn't trying to be some know-it-all ass, by the way.
I didn't think you were, but when one part of your leg is killing you, anything to any other part of either leg is going to compound it. Just when Parker might have had a chance to turn the corner on the first one, he got the second one. It's too bad that the Spurs had to spot the Mavs a couple of games while the rest of the guys figured out how to play out of position on-the-fly. They almost had enough time.


I can't recall if the Artest foul was after the whistle or not, but I'm pretty sure it was excessive/unnecessary.

I haven't looked it up, but I seem to remember that Artest got suspended for a game in which he hit Duncan, Ginobili and Parker at different times, maybe game 2, which could mean that Parker got the first injury in garbage time of that blowout in game 1.


Either way, Tony was pretty jacked-up going into that series, and got jacked-up in game 1 or 2. (Now that I think about it, I seem to remember Tony joking with the reporters, after the knee from Harris, about how he was just evening out the injuries to each side of his body.)

Yeah, once the Mavs started taking using their speed and taking advantage of the Spurs' lack of shot blocking, it was pretty much over.

[SenorSpur]

First off, a fantastically, well-written, synoposis overview of the series. If I wasn't worried before, and I was, I'd be worried now.

1) Can the Spurs slow down Dirk Nowitzki?

Most teams put a long small forward or a quick power forward on Nowitzki. The problem for the Spurs is they don't have such a player on the roster. Because of that, all signs point to Nowitzki being a monster yet again.
This is a roster deficiency that many on this board, myself included, have been bitching about since even before that epic 2006 series. This has been and continues to be a big hole that, in my opinion, has contributed to the Spurs defensive inefficiency against players of Nowitzki's size and shooting skill. It's very frustrating to see other, more inferior teams, have the luxury of throwing a taller, longer defender at him and frustrate him. The Spurs cannot. I wonder why that is?

4) Defensively, can the Spurs execute the necessary rotations?

Against the Spurs, the Mavs do a great job of spacing the floor and then penetrating from different angles with different ballhandlers. Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, Howard and Barea have all shown an ability to cause havoc off the dribble. Any sort of late rotation or error in rotation and the Mavs typically end up with an open shot.

A lot of teams overcome this issue by applying pressure on the Mavs and then switching on penetration. The Spurs, however, don't have the personnel to employ that strategy.

If the Spurs can make crisp rotations, they can survive the upcoming penetration onslaught from the Mavs. We'll see if the defense, which has been quite shaky at times this season, is up for the challenge.
This is the 30,000 question. Watching the games the Spurs played here in Dallas this season, it seemed the Spurs did struggle trying to corral the Mavs many offensive weapons. No longer are the Mavs strictly the half-court, isolation-only, type of offense they once were. The presence of Kidd means the ball moves around the perimeter more crisply and they get a lot more cheap baskets off turnovers and opportunity breaks. This makes it even more troubling because the Spurs are simply not as defensively efficient as in years past, and they struggled even then. Being that the Spurs pride themselves on their superior defensive philosophies and considering how the Mavs exposed them defensively in that epic series 3 years ago, why the Spurs STILL do not have the adequate personnel needed to counter this team, yet again, is a mystery?


5) What will the Spurs do to stay competitive on the glass?

Rebounding was a big reason why the Mavs were able to beat the Spurs in the 2006 postseason. In all seven games of that series, the Mavs were able to corral more boards than the Spurs.

The obvious solution is not to go small. If Pop is comfortable playing two bigs, the Spurs should be fine on the glass. The problem is that Pop has usually opted to go small rather than give the Mavs the advantage of Nowitzki going against a slower player not accustomed to defending on the perimeter.
Personally, I thought that Pop should've stayed with his traditional lineup 3 years ago. We'll never know if that would've been successful. Still, there's no better indication as to why the Spurs have habitually struggled with the Mavs than the reboudning differential. In the past, the Spurs have habitually given this team numerous second-chance opportunities due to their failure to box out on the glass, careless passes, and sloppy ball-handling. All of which lead to extra possessions, which usually lead to points for the opposition. As always, the Spurs margin of error is very slim playing against this team. They MUST take care of the ball, reduce turnovers and more importantly, box out and hit the glass relentessly. I believe they have to win the rebounding battle agaist this team.


Conclusion
Dallas is just a very bad matchup that causes a multitude of problems. With Ginobili, I'd say the Spurs win in six games. Without Ginobili? The evidence points to the Mavs winning in six games.
Ouch. Sad, but very true. No matter the records of either team, these games are always very evenly matched. Ginobili's absence is an absolute killer for the Spurs. I am hoping they can mask it, at least for one series.


The Mavs face their own set of question marks heading into the series but their questions aren't as complex. And perhaps most importantly, both their offensive and defensive philosophies were created with beating the Spurs in mind. It's no accident that the Mavs matchup so well against the Spurs; it's by design.
They can thank Avery for that.

[Blackjack]

It's too bad that the Spurs had to spot the Mavs a couple of games while the rest of the guys figured out how to play out of position on-the-fly. They almost had enough time.

Ya know, had the Spurs not got screwed with the schedule, having to play in less than 36hrs. after a flight from Sac to S.A., there isn't a doubt in my mind that the Spurs hold home-court in games 1 and 2.

I've said it before, but the start of that series and the start of the Lakers series from last year were almost identical, impossible, situations for a team as veteran as the Spurs.(Alright, old:lol) The only difference being, when they ran out of gas in game 1 against Dallas, they were able to feed off the crowd and barely hold on, as the legs were giving out.

Game 2, in each series, they got rolled because they weren't able to "fill the cup"(as Pop likes to say) either emotionally or physically.



I haven't looked it up, but I seem to remember that Artest got suspended for a game in which he hit Duncan, Ginobili and Parker at different times, maybe game 2, which could mean that Parker got the first injury in garbage time of that blowout in game 1.

The Artest foul on Tony happened in Sac. (Game 4? 6?)

The Artest suspension came after an elbow to Manu's head in game 1, IIRC.


Yeah, once the Mavs started taking using their speed and taking advantage of the Spurs' lack of shot blocking, it was pretty much over.

It just wasn't in the cards that year.

I'll forever be one bitter sonbitch because of all the circumstances that conspired against the Spurs in that series.

It should have been #4, and the back-to-back.:bang

[timvp]

Besides just making the playoffs, why do teams win during the regular season?

Oh yeah. For HC advantage since, besides health, it is the single most important non-basketball related factor in winning.

Not having homecourt advantage in a series automatically puts the odds against you, which is why Timvp giving the spurs a 35% chance means he'd be giving the Spurs maybe 25%? 15% chance of winning? if they had to face the mavs without HC.


the shockng revelation came at the end of the preview when you counted the spurs out despite Tim's most positive looking game in months having just elapsed and the Spurs earning homecourt. giving us a 35% chance when we have HC advantage? a 35% chance when Tim just said the pain is basically gone and played like it? ....

I don't think homecourt advantage means much in a series against the Mavs. Mavs fans pack the AT&T Center (they'll probably pack it even more this year considering Spurs fans aren't buying playoff tickets) and the Mavs are extremely comfortably in the AT&T Center as it is. They are easily the most comfortable team in the league when in San Antonio. This is their second home ... they love playing the Spurs. They have an extra pep in their step every time they play against San Antonio. Homecourt advantage is useful if the other team gets intimidated or is prone to play worse. The sad fact of the matter is the Mavs play better at San Antonio than they do at home against most teams. Why? I'm not exactly sure.

The Spurs, on the other hand, don't play that well in Dallas. They tend to make mistakes and the crowd goes wild when the Spurs are the opponent.

Combine both aspects and the difference in the Spurs having HCA isn't too huge. If the Spurs didn't have HCA, I'd give them about the same chance to win the series because winning one of the first two games could put them in the driver's seat and the Mavs could implode. As it is, the Spurs REALLY need to win both home games to keep the momentum in the series.

[timvp]

Anything more than 50% means they're out of it, logically."Counting them out" would be 0% or something close two it. 35-40% is a weighted coin flip.


That gives the Mavericks, in your logic, the edge to win the series. So you're admitting defeat before game 1. I think the Mavs, for the reasons stated, have the advantage in this series. But the Spurs surely can win it.

And I'm not admitting defeat. I'm admitting that the Mavs are more likely to win the Spurs.


I'm not saying you're wrong, and I'm not saying you're right, but you can't give the Spurs a 40% chance to win and still count them in it.What percentage chance do you give the Spurs to win the championship? And given that percent, does that mean you are counting them out? Does that mean you have admitted defeat?

Thanks in advance.

[Mugen]

if both teams play to their full potential then the mavs in 6.

if it comes down to heart and mental toughness, then the spurs should win in 6.

[z0sa]

timvp, that's all dandy but its hard to preach Believe when you don't believe yourself...

[completely deck]

What percentage chance do you give the Spurs to win the championship? And given that percent, does that mean you are counting them out? Does that mean you have admitted defeat?

Thanks in advance.

Sure. I say the Spurs have a 50% chance to win the championship. No, I am not counting them out, and I have not admitted defeat.

You, on the other hand....

edit:
timvp, that's all dandy but its hard to preach Believe when you don't believe yourself...

christ, finally, someone gets it.

[raspsa]

Paraphrasing Pop, HCA is nice to have but not mandatory. Personally, aside from a game 7 situation, I don't really care about HCA. I guess I'm in the minority but I actually like the idea of the Spurs starting a series away from home and stealing a game or two on the opponent's court. But in a game 7, HCA is nice but I'd trade it in a minute for a 80% healthy Manu.

[Dunc n Dave]

I say screw worrying about who guards Dirk. They need to give him the Amare treatment: Let Dirk get his points and shut down everyone else. Make Terry and Howard stand around and watch Dirk go 1 on 1 from the FT line.

That's why I think Gooden on Dirk is our best option. Pop just needs to tell Gooden to stay on the floor, don't go for any fakes and just contest the jumper with a hand in the face as best you can when he shoots. He's gonna make those shots as a high rate, but he can't make them all.

Also, with Gooden and Duncan on the floor, Dirk is gonna get worn down guarding one of them in the post, which will cuase him to miss those FT jumpers later in the game. I say let Dirk go for 40-50 a night and stay at home on everyone else.

[Ice009]

I started reading this and I did not like it at about half way through, then I got to the conclusion and knew what his mindset was. It seems Dallas has a lot of Spurs fans running scared.

Now is the time to support the team and not give up.

Who said we have to match up with Dallas? We can make Dallas match up with us. One thing to do is play Drew Gooden more with Tim Duncan, now I am not saying start Drew, but play him more with TD as I seriously doubt Dallas can handle both Tim and Drew together on the court at the same time. Why not expose Dirk's defense and get them in foul trouble.

And I don't know what you are talking about in regards to TP. TP has been big for us in the playoffs before so it's nothing new for him. This season, especially in the second half he has taken it up another level and he's been doing it consistently.

[timvp]

timvp, that's all dandy but its hard to preach Believe when you don't believe yourself...Believe isn't about homerishly pretending everything is fine even if there are circumstances that cause challenges. It's about overcoming said challenges.


Sure. I say the Spurs have a 50% chance to win the championship. No, I am not counting them out, and I have not admitted defeat. So you think the Spurs have a better chance to win the championship than the the Lakers and the Cavaliers combined? If so, that's not really logic I can argue with . . .


Now is the time to support the team and not give up.Pointing out the challenges isn't giving up. :rolleyes

When did Spurs fans turn so emo?



Who said we have to match up with Dallas? We can make Dallas match up with us. When has Pop ever done that. You're talking about about the ultimate counter-puncher.


And I don't know what you are talking about in regards to TP. TP has been big for us in the playoffs before so it's nothing new for him.Link to where I said he hasn't come up big before?

There's a difference between what the Spurs needed out of Parker in past seasons in what they need out of him this season.

[Kori Ellis]

Sure. I say the Spurs have a 50% chance to win the championship. No, I am not counting them out, and I have not admitted defeat.


You actually think the Spurs have a 50% chance of winning a title? Wow.

Being a realist about the matchups, the talent and the health of the Spurs doesn't mean you don't believe in them. It just means you are being realistic. I believe the Spurs can win a title, but I know it's a long shot.

I think the Spurs have about a 50% chance to beat the Mavericks. But their odds of winning a title, I would think are significantly less. I would say it's probably closer to 5% than to 50%.

[z0sa]

Believe isn't about homerishly pretending everything is fine even if there are circumstances that cause challenges. It's about overcoming said challenges.

and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

[Kori Ellis]

There's a difference between what the Spurs needed out of Parker in past seasons in what they need out of him this season.

Parker would probably have to average 27-30 ppg for the Spurs to win a title.

[Kori Ellis]

and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

Writing them off in the first round would be saying they have no chance, or would win 1 out of 100 times. Saying they have 40% chance is pretty close to even. It's saying they would win 4 out of 10 times. That's not very bad, considering they don't have Ginobili, Tim is gimpy, and Pop refuses to play Bowen.

[Kori Ellis]

If anyone really believes the Spurs have a 50%+ chance to win a title, should put their money down. Vegas odds are 18:1 today. That would be a sweet payoff (and a Title!).

[BUMP]

Kori and timvp make good points!

*cough**cough* please *cough* unpink me *cough*

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Classic case of timvp's subjective takes and revisionist spurs history influencing the judgment and opinions of virtually the entire spurstalk board. If he had said "despite all this, spurs have a better shot to win" then every post that follows is not so fucking negative.

Spurs got this shit.

[whottt]

If the San Antonio Spurs are going to miraculously capture championship number five in the 2009 playoffs, the first order of business begins on Saturday in Game 1 of their first round matchup against the Dallas Mavericks. These two Texas rivals will undoubtedly put on an entertaining show over the next few weeks.

As a Spurs fan, this was the first round matchup I dreaded all season. Even before Manu Ginobili went down injured, I didn't want the Spurs to have to go against the Mavs at the onset of the playoffs. Although Dallas has looked vulnerable at times this season, they always seem to give San Antonio trouble. Add to the mix the confidence and experience the Mavs gained in 2006 when they defeated the Spurs in Game 7, and the resulting concoction appears to be less than appetizing.

Since it was learned last night that the Spurs would have to take on the Mavs, I've re-watched a few of the hotly contested battles spanning back to the 2006 regular season to better get a handle on what exactly the Spurs are up against. I've concluded that San Antonio's success in this series will be determined by the answers to these five questions:

1) Can the Spurs slow down Dirk Nowitzki?

Nowitzki was absolutely outstanding against the Spurs in 2006. During that series, he averaged 27.1 points and 13.3 rebounds per game while shooting 52.7% from the field and 73-for-80 at the free throw line. While other teams have had success slowing him down a little bit, the Spurs appear to be in the same boat as they were in 2006.

During the regular season, the Spurs have usually started Matt Bonner out on Nowitzki. At least to begin the series, that is likely to be the case once again. However, the Spurs are sure to throw a number of different defenders at Nowitzki. The problem is figuring out who exactly on this team matches up well with him.

Kurt Thomas is a very good defender but he's likely too slow. Bruce Bowen has had his moments against Nowitzki but most of his positives are overshadowed by the fact that Bowen isn't big enough to keep Nowitzki off the glass. Fabricio Oberto has had some success against him in international play but that hasn't seemed to translate well to the NBA. Drew Gooden may surprise but chances are that he's too new to the Spurs system to take on this monumental task.

The two most likely players Pop will turn to are Ime Udoka and Michael Finley. Personally, I think Udoka would be a disaster against Nowitzki. Nowitzki is both too big and too fast for Udoka. Finley is currently defending better than he ever has in his time as a Spur, but I can't imagine him having too much success against the lanky German. That said, my guess, based on Pop's coaching habits of the last few months, is that Finley on Nowitzki is the matchup we will see when it's money time.

In the month of April, Nowitzki has been very good. He's averaging 30.3 points per game on 55.1% field goal shooting in eight contests. He's been somewhat streaky this season but the Spurs are catching him on one of his hot streaks.

Most teams put a long small forward or a quick power forward on Nowitzki. The problem for the Spurs is they don't have such a player on the roster. Because of that, all signs point to Nowitzki being a monster yet again.

2) Will Tim Duncan be able to dominate?

Since the All-Star break, Duncan has been slowed by knee pain in both knees. The result has been diminished production and the need for more rest than usual. Thankfully, the extended downtime during the first round should give Duncan an opportunity to get the needed rest. Hopefully he uses that rest wisely because the Spurs will need him to be near the top of his game.

Out of any team in the league, the Mavs are arguably the most brazen when it comes to defending Duncan without a double-team. Their strategy in the last handful of years has been to force Duncan to carry the offensive load for most of the game while throwing sporadic double-teams at him from various angles. Dallas' goal is to keep the shooters quiet while keeping Duncan guessing at when and where the doubles will be sent.

If they use that strategy this series, it could be wildly successful if Duncan can't score in one-on-one situations. The bad news for the Spurs is that Duncan has struggled since the All-Star break to consistently score in such situations.

However, the good news is that the precedence is in the Spurs' favor. In 2006, Duncan was struggling with injury near the end of the regular season and into the playoffs. But against the mostly single-teaming Dallas defense, he was able to lift his output to average 32.3 points per game in that seven-game series.

The nightmare scenario for the Spurs would be if the Mavs could get away with using Nowitzki to defend Duncan. If that happens and Dallas surrounds Nowitzki with perimeter players, the defensive mismatches for the Spurs would be virtually impossible to overcome.

3) Will Tony Parker continue his superstar level play in the postseason?

Quietly, Parker graduated from star to superstar during the regular season. He put the team on his back on many occasions and willed the Spurs to victory. His 2008-09 regular season campaign was fantastic.

But now it's the playoffs and the game will be totally different. There's a big difference between being a superstar regular season player and a superstar postseason player. With scouting intensified, teams will be able to throw looks at Parker that he never experienced during the regular season.

I'm hopeful he can continue to play at a very high level but it is far from certain. If Duncan isn't near 100% and with no Manu Ginobili to shoulder some of the pressure, the Mavs could focus their entire defensive scheme on slowing down Parker.

If the situation arises that Duncan can't carry the offense versus single-team coverage, it will be up to Parker and only Parker to ensure that the offense continues to flow. That is a tall challenge for any player in the league, especially one who is new to the role.

4) Defensively, can the Spurs execute the necessary rotations?

When the Spurs gameplan for an opponent, their first goal is to locate what Pop likes to refer to as the "head of the snake". In other words, which player on the other team is responsible for generating the offense? The answer to that question is who the Spurs typically key on and try to force out of their comfort zone.

The main problem against the Mavs and the reason why they've had a hard time handling Dallas in the last few seasons is the fact that the Mavs don't really have a head of the snake. Rather, they have a variety of players that can generate offense. The result is a Spurs defense that can't narrow its focus and instead must depend on synchronized rotations by all five players on the court.

Against the Spurs, the Mavs do a great job of spacing the floor and then penetrating from different angles with different ballhandlers. Nowitzki, Kidd, Terry, Howard and Barea have all shown an ability to cause havoc off the dribble. Any sort of late rotation or error in rotation and the Mavs typically end up with an open shot.

A lot of teams overcome this issue by applying pressure on the Mavs and then switching on penetration. The Spurs, however, don't have the personnel to employ that strategy. When they've tried to do it in the past against Dallas, the Mavs have simply made it their mission to attack Duncan and get him into foul trouble or force Parker to switch onto Nowitzki or Howard.

If the Spurs can make crisp rotations, they can survive the upcoming penetration onslaught from the Mavs. We'll see if the defense, which has been quite shaky at times this season, is up for the challenge.

5) What will the Spurs do to stay competitive on the glass?

Rebounding was a big reason why the Mavs were able to beat the Spurs in the 2006 postseason. In all seven games of that series, the Mavs were able to corral more boards than the Spurs.

Statistically, the Spurs have been a great defensive rebounding team this season. However, those stats will go out the window if Pop goes small to keep a quicker defender on Nowitzki. With a lineup that features Finley on Nowitzki, the Spurs will struggle to rebound.

This is another area where the Spurs will miss Ginobili. In small ball lineups, Ginobili has always been the Spurs' second best rebounder next to Duncan. Without Ginobili, Duncan will be left to fend for himself.

The obvious solution is not to go small. If Pop is comfortable playing two bigs, the Spurs should be fine on the glass. The problem is that Pop has usually opted to go small rather than give the Mavs the advantage of Nowitzki going against a slower player not accustomed to defending on the perimeter.

Another idea would be to play Udoka or George Hill more minutes. Both have shown an ability to rebound but both have also struggled offensively at times. Pop will have to judge whether or not their added rebounding boost is worth a drop in the team's offensive efficiency.

Conclusion

After considering all the aspects of the matchup between the Spurs and the Mavs, I regretfully have to admit that the evidence points to the Mavs being more likely to win this series. Dallas is just a very bad matchup that causes a multitude of problems. With Ginobili, I'd say the Spurs win in six games. Without Ginobili? The evidence points to the Mavs winning in six games.

The Mavs face their own set of question marks heading into the series but their questions aren't as complex. They are the healthier team, which also results in them being the deeper team. They have the experience of how to beat the Spurs. They are playing their best basketball of the year. They have multiple players who the Spurs have never really gotten a handle on (Nowitzki, Howard, Terry). And perhaps most importantly, both their offensive and defensive philosophies were created with beating the Spurs in mind. It's no accident that the Mavs matchup so well against the Spurs; it's by design.

Even though I give the Mavs a 60-65% chance to win the series, the Spurs are far from helpless. In Part 2, I'll give a player-by-player breakdown of what the Spurs need in order to advance to the second round.

Instead of sitting here operating under the delusion that Dirk is some unstoppable force, why not just put Nowitzki on his ass like Pat Riley had Shaq and Zo do?

Dirk isn't some insurmountable obstacle, and if he is it's because the Spurs allow him to be one by not putting him on his ass.


This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

Sadly, he never got that chance like Alonzo did, and the Spurs have never figured it out, like Riley did.


Dirk dominates against us because he is allowed to get comfortable by a lack of physical play against him.

Pat Riley and Don Nelson know this, why doesn't Pop?

He's Dirk Nowitzki, he's not Michael Jordan and shouldn't be given that level of respect. Put him on his ass and watch him start missing shots.

[polandprzem]

IMO those who said the spurs have 50% winning this series do not belive in spurs.
You at least need to have 50.00000000000000000000000000000001%


:stirpot:

[Kori Ellis]

IMO those who said the spurs have 50% winning this series do not belive in spurs.
You at least need to have 50.00000000000000000000000000000001%


:stirpot:

:lol

I told timvp in the car today, 57%.

[whottt]

And Dirk looks like Wilt against us because he's 7'ft tall and is guarded by shooting guards. If Pop's system is dictating Dirk be guarded with players he can shoot over and push around, then Pop's system is fucked up and needs to be chucked when playing the Mavs. He needs to be guarded with a bigman, not 2 2 guard, and again, preferably one that will knock him on his ass.

[Blackjack]

This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

Having Horry on your team, is a guaranteed appearance in the secound-round.:smokin

[Ice009]

Instead of sitting here operating under the delusion that Dirk is some unstoppable force, why not just put Nowitzki on his ass like Pat Riley had Shaq and Zo do?

Dirk isn't some insurmountable obstacle, and if he is it's because the Spurs allow him to be one by not putting him on his ass.


This is why I regret Robert not being on this team...not that he'd have played anyway given the recent matchup history, but if he had, after Dirk had dropped about 15 points on him Horry would have found a way to put Dirk on his butt, or hit him in the nuts or something. He'd have hit when he was moving to the basket, he'd have done something to get Dirk to think about his own well being and comfort instead of how easy it is to score.

Sadly, he never got that chance like Alonzo did, and the Spurs have never figured it out, like Riley did.


Dirk dominates against us because he is allowed to get comfortable by a lack of physical play against him.

Pat Riley and Don Nelson know this, why doesn't Pop?

He's Dirk Nowitzki, he's not Michael Jordan and shouldn't be given that level of respect. Put him on his ass and watch him start missing shots.

Good post Whott. The more physical the better. The Spurs have never punished Dirk like they should have.

I really think the Spurs need to exploit Dirk on the defensive end. Play Gooden and Duncan together and make Dirk work on that end of the floor. I think Pop is smart enough to do it and he will do it.

[whottt]

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

[z0sa]

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

losing with grace? is there really such a thing? As a fan of the spurs during this great era, I'm not sure it will ever exist again.

I know tim is injured, but I'm praying he still has some ridiculous performances hidden deep somewhere.

[whottt]

Good post Whott. The more physical the better. The Spurs have never punished Dirk like they should have.

I really think the Spurs need to exploit Dirk on the defensive end. Play Gooden and Duncan together and make Dirk work on that end of the floor. I think Pop is smart enough to do it and he will do it.

Thank you. Dirk is going to flop and get calls anyway...might as well get th ose fouls on our terms instead of his.

I think Thomas would have no problems doing it...but Pop is going to have to encourage it. He can't shit there and take the high road and expect guys to defend Dirk on nothing but talent.

That is a fools errand and is actually a form of being overconfident.

[timvp]

I agree that knocking Dirk down a few times would be a good idea. But the problem is that Pop is very unlikely to put a hit out on him and the Spurs don't really have any goons willing to do it. Thomas is the closest thing the Spurs have but he doesn't really lay people out.

How many flagrant fouls did the Spurs have this whole season? I can't even remember one off the top of my head.

Counting on the Spurs suddenly deciding to play rough is a longshot at best. In 2006, emotions were running high, Horry was still playing and the Spurs fouled Dirk about 500 times ... but they were all of the touch foul variety.

I don't see that changing this year ... as much as I agree with the sentiment.

[Trimble87]

and you're giving the spurs 1/3 chances to overcome said challenge.

I'll just be honest, you writing off the spurs in the first round is a heartbreaker - i've come to respect your posting that much.. I like your perspective and your takes. But this one just seems so wrong.

I think there might be something seriously wrong with about half the members of this board...

You don't have to 100% believe the spurs will win every series to be a fan. Believeing is about believing in the players and coaches, and never losing hope. To ignore the circumstances our team is in and declare them champs, or even participants in the WCF already isn't being a fan, its being dense.

Tim has the rare quality of being a fan and still being able to look subjectively at the matchups. I applaud him and think more fans should sign up.

If you disagree with any of the points he is making then by all means state your disagreement and the facts backing up your own beliefs. But if everything he wrote makes sense to you and you just dislike the fact that he gave the mavs a 10% better chance to win the series... then stfu pls.

* this was pointed to all of the fans, on this site and that I know personally, who are getting pissed about people giving the mavs a chance... not just zosa :)

[polandprzem]

Thank you. Dirk is going to flop and get calls anyway...might as well get th ose fouls on our terms instead of his.

I think Thomas would have no problems doing it...but Pop is going to have to encourage it. He can't shit there and take the high road and expect guys to defend Dirk on nothing but talent.

That is a fools errand and is actually a form of being overconfident.

So what it gives that you put Thomas on Dirk?
can he play him on big amounts of time?

If not Pop will have to put a backourt guy on Dirk again, and Dirk will have his confidence back.

And really Dirk is not our only problem. IMO Terry is bigger. And we have to guard Josh as well.

[50Bestspurever]

great preview! But all a spurs fan has to do is read bucks article. it says it all. We live and die with Timmy now.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Oh and I agree this Spurs team is not a very good one...but losing to the Mavs or Rockets is unacceptable. I at least want to end the playoff goose egg the Rockets have on us during these playoffs. We probably don't have the horses to win a championship, but no way should we not end this season as the best team in Texas. I can live with not winning the title, even lose with grace...but fuck losing to the Mavs or Rockets.

Most solid post in this entire cockamamie thread. :tu

Mavericks: prepare to be :smchode:

[kace]

I agree that knocking Dirk down a few times would be a good idea. But the problem is that Pop is very unlikely to put a hit out on him and the Spurs don't really have any goons willing to do it. Thomas is the closest thing the Spurs have but he doesn't really lay people out.

How many flagrant fouls did the Spurs have this whole season? I can't even remember one off the top of my head.

Counting on the Spurs suddenly deciding to play rough is a longshot at best. In 2006, emotions were running high, Horry was still playing and the Spurs fouled Dirk about 500 times ... but they were all of the touch foul variety.

I don't see that changing this year ... as much as I agree with the sentiment.

Fabio is a thug. good way to use his few minutes.

[kace]

Good post Whott. The more physical the better. The Spurs have never punished Dirk like they should have.

I really think the Spurs need to exploit Dirk on the defensive end. Play Gooden and Duncan together and make Dirk work on that end of the floor. I think Pop is smart enough to do it and he will do it.



with Tim and Gooden on the court together, who will Dirk defend ?
i'm confident that both of them can expose him on one on one

with Tim and Gooden together, we have two post threats and i just can't see two bigs able to defend them in the mavs lineup. surely not Dirk.

i keep saying that. Expose him on this side. Make him feel uncomfortable by being owned on defense one on one. Why not foul trouble ? Make him work. and score on him. Run the PnR against him with Tony and whoever Dirk is guarding.

i see only positive aspects about attacking him on defense.

[GSH]

There has been a lot of talk about how the Mavs finished the season strong. Is anybody even going to mention that in their last 8 road games they went 2-6, beating only Minnesota and Indiana? (And they barely escaped the Pacers with a 94-92 margin, on a last-second shot.)

Go back 12 road games, they are 4-8. Go back 16 road games, they are 5-11. Bottom line - they better hope those home wins at the end of the season mean a hell of a lot, because while they sucked on the road all season (18-23), they really sucked on the road at the end of the season.

The Spurs need to come out with a mission in this first game. They need to be the ones bringing more energy, getting to loose balls, etc. If they do, this series could be over by the third quarter of the first game. It's not the Mavs talent I question, it's their heads. A mentally tough, playoff caliber team doesn't pile up that kind of road record. And nobody knows that better than Dirk and Company.

[Edit: Let me save you Mavs fans some trouble. Over the Spurs' last 9 road games, they went 6-3. That's good enough to go all the way.]

[BlackBellamy]

Ya know what? F*ck it. I'm not scared of this series or this steadily declining Mavericks team at all. We beat big D in '03 with Manu getting very limited minutes and Tony still developing. I say we've added enough role players to compensate for (certainly not replace) lack of Manu, and Parker's having his most dominating season to date. Against a Mavs team that is getting accustomed to losing? I'm not sweating it. Now after this series...

[hater]

good take timvp. but don't deny that in the end. Like Hollinger and most analysts, you are calling this series for the mavs.

I am calling this series for SPurs. Due to mavs choking. they will for sure choke on game 7 or game 6 in this series.

[Brazil]

TP in a recent interview sumed up well the thing.

will fight »

...
Tony Parker : « It is complicated, we have a few problems to manage between Manu’s season ending injury and Tim little’s troubles. The fact that Gino is gone only makes things harder but it is now up to us to choose. Whether we take the challenge ahead and fight to the end or we let go and will likely be soon on vacation. When we know the character of this team we will choose the first option. We will fight. »

[Obstructed_View]

I know Gooden had at least one flagrant in his short time as a Spur. If someone's going to hit Dirk hard, my money's on him.

[GSH]

If anybody is likely to flare up on Nitwitzki, my money would be on Kurt Thomas. He's a hard-ass, and not inclined to take shit from anyone. He's one of the few guys I've seen square up on Shaq, and not look like he wished someone would break it up. I still think a lot of people underestimate KT.