timvp
04-17-2009, 05:18 PM
Spurs vs. Mavs - First Round Series Preview - Part 1 (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=123106)
Part 2 - Player Analysis
Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
After the All-Star break, Duncan averaged 16.4 points, 11 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 30.4 minutes per contest, while shooting 46.2% from the floor in the 25 games. Those numbers obviously won't be enough against the Mavs. He'll be facing a lot of single-teams and will need to force the Mavs to change that strategy, which won't happen unless he's scoring at a high clip. Offensively, aggressiveness is the key. Getting Eric Dampier in foul trouble would make life easier for him. On defense, Duncan will have to protect the basket without fouling. Quick and smart rotation are a must, especially when the Spurs are playing small ball.
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Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
In games this season in which Manu Ginobili hasn't played, Tony Parker is averaging 24.5 points and 7.3 assists per game on 50.8% shooting from the field. Against the Mavs, he's going to have to continue to carry the load. If Duncan isn't able to consistently beat single-team coverage, the Spurs may need Parker to average more than 30 points per game to win the series. No matter how Duncan is playing, the Spurs need their point guard to continuously attack and apply pressure virtually every time up the court. Defensively, Parker needs to be much more consistent than he was during the regular season. His defense, especially when guarding Jason Terry or J.J. Barea, will be hugely important.
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Michael Finley
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3023.jpg
In the 2006 series against the Mavs, Michael Finley played well. He averaged 10.6 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the field and 36.4% from beyond the three-point line. This time around, the Spurs will need even more points out of him. It's very likely that he averages more than 35 minutes in this series and the Spurs will approximately need 12-14 points per game out of their starting small forward. The bad news is that Finley has been horrible against the Mavs in the last three regular seasons. In 16 games, he's averaged only 5.8 points on 34% field goal shooting. If that's the type of offensive production the Spurs get out of Finley in these playoffs, they'd be doomed. Defensively, Finely will need to be ready to work. He's likely to begin games defending Josh Howard and end games defending Dirk Nowitzki.
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Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
In games Ginobili has missed, Roger Mason, Jr. has averaged 13.9 points per contest on 43.8% shooting from the field and 44.1% shooting from beyond the three-point line. It will be very interesting to see how Mason is able to adjust to playoff basketball. He's played well in tight situations this year but the postseason is an entirely different story and he'll have a lot of responsibilities. Not only do the Spurs need him to shoot well, he's Parker's backup at point guard. On the defensive end, he's not a very good match for anyone on the Mavs. Terry and Barea will be difficult for him because they utilize a lot of screens, while Howard is likely too big. Overall, this is going to be a very challenging series for Mason. Hopefully he's ready for it.
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Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
Speaking of challenges, Matt Bonner is likely to be the first Spurs player to get a shot at Nowitzki. Bonner has struggled with jumpshooting bigmen with length this season -- and Nowitzki is the ultimate jumpshooting bigman with length. It'd be great if he could stay in front of Nowitzki while getting a hand up on his jumper, but that's a lot easier said than done. Chances are that Bonner won't be the one defending Nowitzki late in games. Offensively, I think any Spurs fan who has been following along this year has to be a bit worried about how Bonner will shoot. He had a very good offensive season in terms of his accuracy, however he didn't perform well most of the time in clutch situations or against great teams. Now that the playoffs are upon us, that means the pressure will be at a new high. Will Bonner be able to handle the added pressure? Let us pray.
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Bruce Bowen
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3167.jpg
A lot has changed since last year at this time in regards to Bruce Bowen. A staple in the Spurs lineup for the previous seven years, Bowen is now a bench player who gets spot minutes here and there. However, Pop has hinted at some point during the year that he may have been saving Bowen for the playoffs. We will see what Pop has in store. Even in spot minutes, Bowen would be useful because his defensive mastery can be applied to any number of Mavs including Nowitzki, Howard, Terry, Barea and maybe even Kidd. With the Mavs likely to pose a lot of problems for the Spurs on the defensive end, it wouldn't be too surprising for Bowen to find himself in a large role by the end of the series.
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Ime Udoka
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3501.jpg
Ime Udoka was once buried on the bench. Now, Pop has been using him as the team's sixth man. Since Ginobili suffered the stress fracture, Udoka has averaged 5.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in 21.7 minutes per game, while shooting 40.9% from the field and 38.1% on three-pointers. Where Udoka can help out the most against the Mavs is on the glass. He's a great rebounder for a perimeter player and if Pop is going to use small ball with Udoka at power forward, he's shown an ability to rebound like a bigman. Offensively, Udoka has been extremely streaky after beginning the season ice cold. Unlike Bowen, Udoka doesn't blend in offensively so when he's off, he's painfully off. Last year in the playoffs, he shot the ball great against the Hornets but struggled against the Suns and the Lakers. Hopefully he can shoot well against the Mavs because the Spurs can use his rebounding ability in this series.
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Kurt Thomas
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3012.jpg
Logically, Kurt Thomas should have a difficult time in this series. Nowitzki is a player that should be too quick for Thomas to defend. Even though it appears to be a losing proposition, I'd like to see Pop at least give Thomas a chance on Nowitzki. Thomas has lost weight from last season and the beginning stages of this season and is now a quicker player. He probably is not quick enough to stay with the big German but if he is, that would be a huge win for the Spurs. In the second half of the season, Thomas has played very well. His outside shots have been falling and he's been the best defensive bigman on the team since the All-Star break. Even if he can't guard Nowitzki, hopefully Thomas is in the game when Duncan is resting.
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Drew Gooden
http://spurstalk.com/drew-gooden-spurs.jpg
Drew Gooden is the enigma of this series. In the month of April, he's produced for the Spurs at a stunning level. In only 22 minutes per game, he has averaged 14.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game during the month. Offensively, there's no question that Gooden can be helpful. The Mavs don't have an abundance of quality post defenders and the ones they do have will be focused on Duncan. Gooden has scored well from the post, on the drive and from the perimeter. He's also getting to the line very frequently as of late. The huge question is whether or not he can hang defensively. With the way the Mavs play offensively, Gooden is going to have to be in constant rotation. And while he's shown a decent ability to play one-on-one defense, his team defense is extremely suspect. As good as Gooden can be offensively, he'll be a net negative unless he suddenly figures out when and where to rotate on the defensive end. That said, if Gooden can adequately guard Nowitzki and he can just concentrate on that matchup, Gooden could be the hero of the series. I don't think that will happen, but we will see.
-------------------------------
Fabricio Oberto
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3988.jpg
Another bigman option is Fabricio Oberto. He didn't play too much in 2006 but he has shown an ability to be a clutch performer for the Spurs. During regular season matchups, he's done a decent job on Nowitzki. Pop may opt to call on Oberto but the Argentine bigman hasn't played much as of late and his conditioning has suffered. Offensively, Oberto would be helpful against the Mavs because his interior passing ability would make it much more difficult for Dallas to play Duncan with only one defender. All in all, Oberto on paper makes sense in this series but his conditioning and the fact that he's been out of the rotation since the first week of December lessens the likelihood that he'll see significant time on the court.
-------------------------------
George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
George Hill has a few attributes that would be helpful against the Mavs. First of all, he's a good rebounder and the Spurs can never have enough good rebounders on the court against Dallas. He can also pressure the ball better defensively than anyone on the team, which would be a nice weapon to throw against Kidd. Offensively, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim and if the Mavs are solely concerned with Duncan and Parker, Hill may be able to find open lanes. Pop, however, seems intent on not playing Hill, for largely unknown reasons. For Hill to play a larger than expected role in this series, it'd likely be a case in which the Spurs are struggling and Pop is in search of a spark.
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Jacque Vaughn
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3195.jpg
I don't like the idea of using Jacque Vaughn at all in this series. The Mavs would attack him defensively and ignore him offensively. In some matchups against other teams Vaughn could be useful, but that isn't the case against Dallas. If Vaughn gets up off the bench, hopefully it is because the Spurs are coasting to a blowout victory. Otherwise, San Antonio is in trouble.
-------------------------------
Part 3 will focus on Pop and his coaching options during the first round series against the Mavs.
Part 2 - Player Analysis
Tim Duncan
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3173.jpg
After the All-Star break, Duncan averaged 16.4 points, 11 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 30.4 minutes per contest, while shooting 46.2% from the floor in the 25 games. Those numbers obviously won't be enough against the Mavs. He'll be facing a lot of single-teams and will need to force the Mavs to change that strategy, which won't happen unless he's scoring at a high clip. Offensively, aggressiveness is the key. Getting Eric Dampier in foul trouble would make life easier for him. On defense, Duncan will have to protect the basket without fouling. Quick and smart rotation are a must, especially when the Spurs are playing small ball.
-------------------------------
Tony Parker
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3527.jpg
In games this season in which Manu Ginobili hasn't played, Tony Parker is averaging 24.5 points and 7.3 assists per game on 50.8% shooting from the field. Against the Mavs, he's going to have to continue to carry the load. If Duncan isn't able to consistently beat single-team coverage, the Spurs may need Parker to average more than 30 points per game to win the series. No matter how Duncan is playing, the Spurs need their point guard to continuously attack and apply pressure virtually every time up the court. Defensively, Parker needs to be much more consistent than he was during the regular season. His defense, especially when guarding Jason Terry or J.J. Barea, will be hugely important.
-------------------------------
Michael Finley
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3023.jpg
In the 2006 series against the Mavs, Michael Finley played well. He averaged 10.6 points per game on 51.8% shooting from the field and 36.4% from beyond the three-point line. This time around, the Spurs will need even more points out of him. It's very likely that he averages more than 35 minutes in this series and the Spurs will approximately need 12-14 points per game out of their starting small forward. The bad news is that Finley has been horrible against the Mavs in the last three regular seasons. In 16 games, he's averaged only 5.8 points on 34% field goal shooting. If that's the type of offensive production the Spurs get out of Finley in these playoffs, they'd be doomed. Defensively, Finely will need to be ready to work. He's likely to begin games defending Josh Howard and end games defending Dirk Nowitzki.
-------------------------------
Roger Mason, Jr.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3628.jpg
In games Ginobili has missed, Roger Mason, Jr. has averaged 13.9 points per contest on 43.8% shooting from the field and 44.1% shooting from beyond the three-point line. It will be very interesting to see how Mason is able to adjust to playoff basketball. He's played well in tight situations this year but the postseason is an entirely different story and he'll have a lot of responsibilities. Not only do the Spurs need him to shoot well, he's Parker's backup at point guard. On the defensive end, he's not a very good match for anyone on the Mavs. Terry and Barea will be difficult for him because they utilize a lot of screens, while Howard is likely too big. Overall, this is going to be a very challenging series for Mason. Hopefully he's ready for it.
-------------------------------
Matt Bonner
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3748.jpg
Speaking of challenges, Matt Bonner is likely to be the first Spurs player to get a shot at Nowitzki. Bonner has struggled with jumpshooting bigmen with length this season -- and Nowitzki is the ultimate jumpshooting bigman with length. It'd be great if he could stay in front of Nowitzki while getting a hand up on his jumper, but that's a lot easier said than done. Chances are that Bonner won't be the one defending Nowitzki late in games. Offensively, I think any Spurs fan who has been following along this year has to be a bit worried about how Bonner will shoot. He had a very good offensive season in terms of his accuracy, however he didn't perform well most of the time in clutch situations or against great teams. Now that the playoffs are upon us, that means the pressure will be at a new high. Will Bonner be able to handle the added pressure? Let us pray.
-------------------------------
Bruce Bowen
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3167.jpg
A lot has changed since last year at this time in regards to Bruce Bowen. A staple in the Spurs lineup for the previous seven years, Bowen is now a bench player who gets spot minutes here and there. However, Pop has hinted at some point during the year that he may have been saving Bowen for the playoffs. We will see what Pop has in store. Even in spot minutes, Bowen would be useful because his defensive mastery can be applied to any number of Mavs including Nowitzki, Howard, Terry, Barea and maybe even Kidd. With the Mavs likely to pose a lot of problems for the Spurs on the defensive end, it wouldn't be too surprising for Bowen to find himself in a large role by the end of the series.
-------------------------------
Ime Udoka
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3501.jpg
Ime Udoka was once buried on the bench. Now, Pop has been using him as the team's sixth man. Since Ginobili suffered the stress fracture, Udoka has averaged 5.8 points and 4.2 rebounds in 21.7 minutes per game, while shooting 40.9% from the field and 38.1% on three-pointers. Where Udoka can help out the most against the Mavs is on the glass. He's a great rebounder for a perimeter player and if Pop is going to use small ball with Udoka at power forward, he's shown an ability to rebound like a bigman. Offensively, Udoka has been extremely streaky after beginning the season ice cold. Unlike Bowen, Udoka doesn't blend in offensively so when he's off, he's painfully off. Last year in the playoffs, he shot the ball great against the Hornets but struggled against the Suns and the Lakers. Hopefully he can shoot well against the Mavs because the Spurs can use his rebounding ability in this series.
-------------------------------
Kurt Thomas
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3012.jpg
Logically, Kurt Thomas should have a difficult time in this series. Nowitzki is a player that should be too quick for Thomas to defend. Even though it appears to be a losing proposition, I'd like to see Pop at least give Thomas a chance on Nowitzki. Thomas has lost weight from last season and the beginning stages of this season and is now a quicker player. He probably is not quick enough to stay with the big German but if he is, that would be a huge win for the Spurs. In the second half of the season, Thomas has played very well. His outside shots have been falling and he's been the best defensive bigman on the team since the All-Star break. Even if he can't guard Nowitzki, hopefully Thomas is in the game when Duncan is resting.
-------------------------------
Drew Gooden
http://spurstalk.com/drew-gooden-spurs.jpg
Drew Gooden is the enigma of this series. In the month of April, he's produced for the Spurs at a stunning level. In only 22 minutes per game, he has averaged 14.4 points and 4.9 rebounds per game during the month. Offensively, there's no question that Gooden can be helpful. The Mavs don't have an abundance of quality post defenders and the ones they do have will be focused on Duncan. Gooden has scored well from the post, on the drive and from the perimeter. He's also getting to the line very frequently as of late. The huge question is whether or not he can hang defensively. With the way the Mavs play offensively, Gooden is going to have to be in constant rotation. And while he's shown a decent ability to play one-on-one defense, his team defense is extremely suspect. As good as Gooden can be offensively, he'll be a net negative unless he suddenly figures out when and where to rotate on the defensive end. That said, if Gooden can adequately guard Nowitzki and he can just concentrate on that matchup, Gooden could be the hero of the series. I don't think that will happen, but we will see.
-------------------------------
Fabricio Oberto
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/3988.jpg
Another bigman option is Fabricio Oberto. He didn't play too much in 2006 but he has shown an ability to be a clutch performer for the Spurs. During regular season matchups, he's done a decent job on Nowitzki. Pop may opt to call on Oberto but the Argentine bigman hasn't played much as of late and his conditioning has suffered. Offensively, Oberto would be helpful against the Mavs because his interior passing ability would make it much more difficult for Dallas to play Duncan with only one defender. All in all, Oberto on paper makes sense in this series but his conditioning and the fact that he's been out of the rotation since the first week of December lessens the likelihood that he'll see significant time on the court.
-------------------------------
George Hill
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/images/basketball/nba/players/4488.jpg
George Hill has a few attributes that would be helpful against the Mavs. First of all, he's a good rebounder and the Spurs can never have enough good rebounders on the court against Dallas. He can also pressure the ball better defensively than anyone on the team, which would be a nice weapon to throw against Kidd. Offensively, he's shown an ability to slash to the rim and if the Mavs are solely concerned with Duncan and Parker, Hill may be able to find open lanes. Pop, however, seems intent on not playing Hill, for largely unknown reasons. For Hill to play a larger than expected role in this series, it'd likely be a case in which the Spurs are struggling and Pop is in search of a spark.
-------------------------------
Jacque Vaughn
http://i.cdn.turner.com/si/.e1d/img/4.0/global/basketball/nba/players/3195.jpg
I don't like the idea of using Jacque Vaughn at all in this series. The Mavs would attack him defensively and ignore him offensively. In some matchups against other teams Vaughn could be useful, but that isn't the case against Dallas. If Vaughn gets up off the bench, hopefully it is because the Spurs are coasting to a blowout victory. Otherwise, San Antonio is in trouble.
-------------------------------
Part 3 will focus on Pop and his coaching options during the first round series against the Mavs.