Disaster Would Overwhelm Hospitals, Author Warns

[RandomGuy]

'The Edge of Disaster'
Disaster Would Overwhelm Hospitals, Author Warns
by Steve Inskeep
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'The Edge of Disaster'
Read an Excerpt


“We’re going to have incidents whether by acts of God or acts of man that are going to place a lot of people in desperate need for emergency care... And it will be life and death whether or not they receive it.”
Stephen Flynn, author of 'The Edge of Disaster'
Morning Edition, February 22, 2007 · Stephen Flynn, former Coast Guard commander and author of The Edge of Disaster, says that the United States medical system is unprepared to handle a catastrophic emergency such as a flu pandemic or a major terrorist attack.

The problem, Flynn says, is that hospitals have been trying to cut costs.

"The medical community has been moving in the direction of much of our economy," he says, "which is wringing out the extra capacity in order to essentially focus on the bottom line."

Possible Pandemic

Each year, more than 300,000 people are treated in U.S. hospitals for the flu. The common flu is dangerous; more than 30,000 Americans die from it every year. But Flynn is even more concerned by the prospect of pandemic flu, such as the outbreak that occurred in 1918.

Flynn estimates that a pandemic flu outbreak today would result in 80 million infected Americans. If the death rate were similar to that of the 1918 flu, then a current flu pandemic could result in 800,000 deaths in the United States.

There are only 970,000 hospital beds in the entire country, says Flynn, "so clearly we'd have to find a much different way to provide emergency care for people outside of our hospital settings."

Flynn says the United States lacks the federal leadership necessary to organize state and local efforts.

Advance Planning

Flynn worries that a medical system that can barely meet day-to-day demands will be caught unprepared by an onslaught of emergency cases.

"We're going to have incidents whether by acts of God or acts of man that are going to place a lot of people in desperate need for emergency care," Flynn says. "And it will be life and death whether or not they receive it."

He says that investing in a medical system that can handle a potential surge is "something that we can't afford not to do."

Flynn endorses alternative solutions that will enforce the medical system without tremendous expense. He says much more can be done to reach out to retired doctors and nurses who could serve as a rank of reserves for medical professionals.

There are also programs that give citizens basic training so that they can assist medical professionals in the event of an emergency.

To inspire such change, Flynn thinks the United States needs to realize that the medical system is moving in the wrong direction.

"The efforts to essentially try to keep costs down and to ultimately make… our medical care system as efficient as possible," he says, "stands in opposition to the need to have surge capacity when things go very wrong."

Click here to read the first chapter from the Author's Book, halfway down the page (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7514969)

[Trainwreck2100]

100,000 would die in the admitting process alone

[ElNono]

100,000 would die in the admitting process alone

You sig is just not right... :lol

[101A]

Seeing as though the weak (elderly) are FAR more likely to die from the flu.....this is the solution to Social Security insolvency!

[td4mvp21]

Seeing as though the weak (elderly) are FAR more likely to die from the flu.....this is the solution to Social Security insolvency!

:lol Thats awful, I don't know why I laughed.

[ElNono]

Seeing as though the weak (elderly) are FAR more likely to die from the flu.....this is the solution to Social Security insolvency!

I realize you meant that as a joke, but as a Public Service Announcement (tm), I want to inform everybody that this is not the case with this strain of the virus.
Since this is a new mutated strain that humans never had contact with before, and therefore the immune system doesn't really know how to deal with, people from all ages carry the same risk after infection. If you or somebody you know suspects that they're infected, they should get tested as early as possible. The earliest the treatment starts, the more effective it is.

[CubanMustGo]

I realize you meant that as a joke, but as a Public Service Announcement (tm), I want to inform everybody that this is not the case with this strain of the virus.
Since this is a new mutated strain that humans never had contact with before, and therefore the immune system doesn't really know how to deal with, people from all ages carry the same risk after infection. If you or somebody you know suspects that they're infected, they should get tested as early as possible. The earliest the treatment starts, the more effective it is.

What gets me is that they are saying they can create a vaccine, but it will take several months to get out there in quantity. Well, get to work.

If the gummint wants to throw money at something they can throw money at this. A little wasted money on some unneeded vaccine is a lot better than the alternative should it be needed and nothing be available.

[ElNono]

What gets me is that they are saying they can create a vaccine, but it will take several months to get out there in quantity. Well, get to work.

If the gummint wants to throw money at something they can throw money at this. A little wasted money on some unneeded vaccine is a lot better than the alternative should it be needed and nothing be available.

Antivirals work fine if the disease is found early. As far as vaccines, Roche indicated they currently have 3 million units ready, and another pharma said it could have them ready in about 13 weeks (about half the time it normally takes).

[boutons_deux]

Don't need a pig flu to run short of medical care.

I read an article that said if Magik Negro's health care was implemented (don't worry, wrongies, the health industry will kill it, that death battle has already begun.), there aren't enough primary care docs to care for 50M uninsured. Many regions don't have NOW enough primary care docs.

[LnGrrrR]

It's my belief that most experts in every field somewhat artificially inflate chances of a disaster. Why? Well, if experts ran around saying, "It's no big deal" to anything, then there wouldn't be much of a need to give them a raise, would there?

[ElNono]

It's my belief that most experts in every field somewhat artificially inflate chances of a disaster. Why? Well, if experts ran around saying, "It's no big deal" to anything, then there wouldn't be much of a need to give them a raise, would there?

You're starting to sound like Galileo... :lol

[LnGrrrR]

You're starting to sound like Galileo... :lol

Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern? :)

Hell, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.

[LnGrrrR]

Additional: I mean, let's face it... if this guy is wrong, and it doesn't turn out to be so bad (Y2K anyone?), no one's going to remember him for the wrong prediction.

And let's face it, a book with the title: "The Swine Epidemic: Why It Might Only Cause a Bit of Chaos" wouldn't sell nearly as well. :D

[ElNono]

Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern? :)

Hell, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.

Hey, I can't argue with fear tactics. They are successful for a while. The longevity of the last administration is a perfect example.

[DarkReign]

Cmon now. What expert do you know who says that X catastrophe won't be some huge concern? :)

Hell, I'm guilty of it too. I mean, I can think of a number of problem scenarios that the US has related to cybersecurity. I just think that since my field is that, I'm more likely to think of the negative effects and grant the odds of them happening as larger than the average population.


Additional: I mean, let's face it... if this guy is wrong, and it doesn't turn out to be so bad (Y2K anyone?), no one's going to remember him for the wrong prediction.

And let's face it, a book with the title: "The Swine Epidemic: Why It Might Only Cause a Bit of Chaos" wouldn't sell nearly as well. :D

Bravo!

[RandomGuy]

Seeing as though the weak (elderly) are FAR more likely to die from the flu.....this is the solution to Social Security insolvency!

Interestingly prescient.

Lookie what I found.

[Thread]

Interestingly prescient.

Lookie what I found.

RG

[RandomGuy]

"The efforts to essentially try to keep costs down and to ultimately make… our medical care system as efficient as possible," he says, "stands in opposition to the need to have surge capacity when things go very wrong."

Click here to read the first chapter from the Author's Book, halfway down the page (http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=7514969)

BADA BING. from 2009

[RandomGuy]

RG

I seem to remember saying this disaster was foreseeable. :D

[slick'81]

BADA BING. from 2009


Complacency sucks

[RandomGuy]

Complacency sucks

It does. Humans suck at evaluating large future risks.

Climate change for example.

[TDMVPDPOY]

large population and not enough hospital beds, let alone health workers, they going to force graduation of final year med students?

america hasnt release any numbers on illegals dieing from convit, that be interesting

[Spurtacular]

No Chumpettes crying that RandomCuck bumped a thread from 2009?

:lol Rent free

[monosylab1k]

No Chumpettes crying that RandomCuck bumped a thread from 2009?

:lol Rent free

RG found an old thread that he created.

You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.

[Spurtacular]

RG found an old thread that he created.

You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.

:lol You gonna stick with this answer, slob?

[monosylab1k]

:lol You gonna stick with this answer, slob?

Uh....yes?

[RandomGuy]

RG found an old thread that he created.

You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.

I remember reading something on this a long time ago, and this was it. A bit like finding an old picture.

It also supports what I have been saying about this shit since it became obvious it was overwhelming wuhan.

We have known about this shit for decades. Sad that we have an idiot as president, who was too incompetent to recognize the problem.

[Spurtacular]

Uh....yes?

So, you're crying about how I use my time, even though I made no issue of it? That makes no sense.

I found the last quote from Blake in a matter of minutes; the tears gushed. :lol

[Spurtacular]

I remember reading something on this a long time ago, and this was it. A bit like finding an old picture.

Why should anyone care if it had taken you two hours if that's how you wanted to spend your time?

[DMX7]

:lol You gonna stick with this answer, slob?

He owned you with it and you know it. :lol

[Spurtacular]

https://3.imimg.com/data3/BJ/IW/MY-14231918/a-500x500.png

:lol

[RandomGuy]

Why should anyone care if it had taken you two hours if that's how you wanted to spend your time?

No idea what you are saying here sporto.

Took a single search under the word pandemic from the user Randomguy. One page. Eight entries. A tear plucked from the rain.

[RandomGuy]

RG found an old thread that he created.

You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.

It would seem that is the case. Desperate for some modicum of self-esteem that can be had from denigrating others. Pitiable.

[monosylab1k]

It would seem that is the case. Desperate for some modicum of self-esteem that can be had from denigrating others. Pitiable.

Poor fella :lol

[DMC]

I seem to remember saying this disaster was foreseeable. :D

You also said Avenatti was a legal ninja.

[DMC]

I remember reading something on this a long time ago, and this was it. A bit like finding an old picture.

It also supports what I have been saying about this shit since it became obvious it was overwhelming wuhan.

We have known about this shit for decades. Sad that we have an idiot as president, who was too incompetent to recognize the problem.

Funny because that thread was from 2009 and Barack Obama was the president until 2016.

[CosmicCowboy]

Posting for future reference:

It is criminal that we aren't preparing for the Yellowstone Volcano

We KNOW it's going to happen eventually.

[RandomGuy]

[personal attack]

[indifference]

[RandomGuy]

Posting for future reference:

It is criminal that we aren't preparing for the Yellowstone Volcano

We KNOW it's going to happen eventually.

You say that, but we only dimly understand the geology of the region as it relates to that supervolcano, and have very few seismic stations around it to monitor it.

As I said earlier: Humans suck at long term catastrophic risk assessment, we did not evolve for it.

Since you want to make the analogy:

What is the expected frequency of pandemics, in years, to within an order of magnitude?
What is the expected frequency of this volcano eruptions, in years, to within an order of magnitude?

Critical thinking question:
How likely is each event within the next 50 years?

[RandomGuy]

Funny because that thread was from 2009 and Barack Obama was the president until 2016.

Indeed.

The Obama administration shamefully disbanded the Bush-era pandemic team. That was a colossally stupid thing to do, and it took dealing with SARS, etc to teach that administration the risk.

[DMC]

[indifference]

Oh so it's okay for you to call it a personal attack when I point out something you said but if a reporter points out something Trump said Trump cannot consider that a personal attack? You sound about like Trump just on the other side of the fence.

[SnakeBoy]

RG found an old thread that he created.

You go searching for hours on end, going years back into other people’s posting history. What you do is clearly sad and pathetic.

He dug back 11 years to claim victory because he once heard about a book on pandemics. He didn't actually read the book though :lol

[RandomGuy]

[personal attack] if a reporter points out something Trump said Trump cannot consider that a personal attack?

Depends on the question.

Should Trump not be held accountable for his statements?

[RandomGuy]

He dug back 11 years to claim victory because he once heard about a book on pandemics. He didn't actually read the book though :lol

Not really victory, innit?

It merely supports the statements:

"this was foreseeable" and "it will happen again, we should be prepared"

Should I not support my arguments/assertions?

[SnakeBoy]

Not really victory, innit?

It merely supports the statements:

"this was foreseeable" and "it will happen again, we should be prepared"

Should I not support my arguments/assertions?

They aren't your assertions. You're claiming ownership of an authors thoughts, which aren't even unique. Sad little man you are.

[RandomGuy]

They aren't your assertions. You're claiming ownership of an authors thoughts, which aren't even unique. Sad little man you are.

"This disaster was foreseeable" is my assertion.

What statement here do you feel most "claims ownership of the authors thoughts"? Why do you feel "unique" is important?

[DMC]

Depends on the question.

Should Trump not be held accountable for his statements?

You said Michael Avenatti was a legal ninja. Should you not be held accountable for yours?

[DMC]

"This disaster was foreseeable" is my assertion.

What statement here do you feel most "claims ownership of the authors thoughts"? Why do you feel "unique" is important?

You and a few others here post on stop regurgitated articles about other people's opinions. Now you're trying to take ownership of one of them that you cherry-picked. You had to go back to 2009 to find something that actually panned out for you. I'm glad that during this pandemic this is what you've decided is important.

[RandomGuy]

Should Trump not be held accountable for his statements?


[dodge and personal attack]

So, no you don't hold Trump responsible for his statements. Why do you not think he should be responsible for his statements?

[RandomGuy]

[personal attack]

No take McGurk strikes again.

[indifference]

[RandomGuy]

if a reporter points out something Trump said Trump cannot consider that a personal attack?

What kind of pathological liar lies about his lies to people who have video recordings of the lies he is lying about and who actually read his previous lies to him word for word as he tries to lie about those lies?

[DMC]

Depends on the question.

Should Trump not be held accountable for his statements?


You said Michael Avenatti was a legal ninja. Should you not be held accountable for yours?


So, no you don't hold Trump responsible for his statements. Why do you not think he should be responsible for his statements?

:lol RG dodging this by calling it a personal attack is the same as Trump saying a question is mean because he doesn't want to answer it.

You called Michael Avenatti a legal ninja, now you dig up a post from 11 years ago to prove you somehow have your finger on the pulse. Even then it's just an article from someone else.

[DMC]

What kind of pathological liar lies about his lies to people who have video recordings of the lies he is lying about and who actually read his previous lies to him word for word as he tries to lie about those lies?

Red herring. You called Avenatti a legal ninja. You're no daisy. You're no daisy at all.

[RandomGuy]

So, no you don't hold Trump responsible for his statements. Why do you not think he should be responsible for his statements?


:lol RG dodging this by calling it a personal attack is the same as Trump saying a question is mean because he doesn't want to answer it.

You called Michael Avenatti a legal ninja, now you dig up a post from 11 years ago to prove you somehow have your finger on the pulse. Even then it's just an article from someone else.

(shrugs)

I read the article, remembered the issue and read more through the years on the topic. It informed my thinking.

To the question you are so diligently ignoring:

You don't think Trump should be responsible, and you want to deflect on your hypocrisy for giving Trump a pass by turning the conversation to another boring personal attack on me.

I really wonder how shitty your childhood had to have been to make you so concerned with insulting and denigrating people. It makes me a bit sad thinking about your childhood self. I'm genuinely sorry for whatever it was, and wish it had been better for you.

[DMC]

(shrugs)

I read the article, remembered the issue and read more through the years on the topic. It informed my thinking.

To the question you are so diligently ignoring:

You don't think Trump should be responsible, and you want to deflect on your hypocrisy for giving Trump a pass by turning the conversation to another boring personal attack on me.

I really wonder how shitty your childhood had to have been to make you so concerned with insulting and denigrating people. It makes me a bit sad thinking about your childhood self. I'm genuinely sorry for whatever it was, and wish it had been better for you.

So you expect the medical system to have the capacity for everyone in the country at the same time but still be efficient? :lol

:lol still trying to pretend someone pointing out you called Avenatti a legal ninja is a personal attack on you.