Elephant in the Room

[Extra Stout]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?

[tmtcsc]

No. I believe that he may opt for surgery like Sean Elliott did years ago. His injury is located in the quadriceps tendon. Rest and/or surgery should help the cause. He just needs better players around him.

[ElNono]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?

Well, you seem to be indicating he can give you 3-4 months of solid basketball. Maybe the strategy then is to play him sporadically until the playoffs come around. Obviously, this is all dependent on how we're playing and if we're making the playoffs. But overall, I think the coaching staff can find a strategy to manage his minutes.

[kace]

Well, you seem to be indicating he can give you 3-4 months of solid basketball. Maybe the strategy then is to play him sporadically until the playoffs come around. Obviously, this is all dependent on how we're playing and if we're making the playoffs. But overall, I think the coaching staff can find a strategy to manage his minutes.

i think that should be the strategy for both him and manu. even having tony at 30 mpg would be great.

i wouldn't mind the 8th seed if that meant having the big 3 healthy and fresh.

though, even the 8th seed wouldn't probably be reachable without playing the big 3 a decent amount of minutes (25-30 for manu, 30-35 for tim and tony)

[FaithInOne]

Duncan is past his prime, obviously. But Duncan is not the problem.

[Mel_13]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?

I agree, especially when Manu's return to an all-star level is also in question. It is exactly why I do not believe the Spurs will try to make any move (barring a Gasol-type trade) that will take on huge future obligations.

Look at it this way, if you add a VC or a RJ to Tony and a diminished TD and Manu, can that Spurs team compete for a championship?. I don't think so. And then you have hamstrung yourself for years to come.

I think it is far more likely that the Spurs will make smaller moves over the summer, bringing in younger, cheaper, and much less experienced players to replace 3-4 of the oldest vets. Finally see if they can grow their own role players. They will then see how TD, Manu and the team progress up to the trade deadline. At that point, they will still be able to find expensive talent in exchange for expiring contracts and they will have enough info to decide if it make more sense to do that or to preserve cap space for 2010.

Time will tell, but I believe budget constraints and uncertainty over the health of TD and Manu will keep the Spurs in a very conservative mode this summer.

[ElNono]

i think that should be the strategy for both him and manu. even having tony at 30 mpg would be great.

i wouldn't mind the 8th seed if that meant having the big 3 healthy and fresh.

though, even the 8th seed wouldn't probably be reachable without playing the big 3 a decent amount of minutes (25-30 for manu, 30-35 for tim and tony)

I think you do some management, but you also don't go overboard. You want the team to find an identity and a rhythm during the regular season. Pop did manage some of the minutes for Tim and Manu this season, and then we ended up with Tim and the tendenosis and Manu and the fracture coming out of nowhere. So, you manage minutes to make sure players are not gassed when it matters. But health also has to do with being relatively lucky, and that you can't really control.

[raspsa]

I think the training staff willhave to devise some less strenuous exercises to keep him in shape over the summer.. maybe more time in the pool but perhaps no more tire flipping and running up hills.. those must be murder on the knees.

[Russ]

I think it is far more likely that the Spurs will make smaller moves over the summer, bringing in younger, cheaper, and much less experienced players to replace 3-4 of the oldest vets. Finally see if they can grow their own role players. They will then see how TD, Manu and the team progress up to the trade deadline. At that point, they will still be able to find expensive talent in exchange for expiring contracts and they will have enough info to decide if it make more sense to do that or to preserve cap space for 2010.

Time will tell, but I believe budget constraints and uncertainty over the health of TD and Manu will keep the Spurs in a very conservative mode this summer.

Agreed. The Spurs are in crisis but big moves are not the key. The late 90's Rockets plan is to be avoided -- trying to bring in fading stars (Barkley, Pippin) to goose another title out of your star (Olajuwon).

The Spurs have been best when they go after young no names who have potential, they're just harder to come by now. The Spurs need to find the next underappreciated asset like a Stephen Jackson or Bruce Bowen (they did that to some extent last year with Mason who should not be given up on).

Gist may be a find. There may be some Euro free agents that can help. Sanikidze? Even Mahinmi may get healthy and get a desire transplant and help (unlikely but possible). Now is the time for the Spurs FO to go back to their old ways and get value by beating the bushes.

[spursfaninla]

Russ, I think that plan can work when you have enough of the right pieces....you can luck into that last piece.

This roster needs several pieces. At least 4: a starting C, a starting SF, a backup SF, and a backup C. I am assuming that: Thomas, Bonner, Finley, and Bowen are done, and that we keep the younger Hill, Mason and Gooden as backup Pg, Sg and PF.

I don't know if you can luck into 4 additions by beating bushes for under-appreciated young talent.

[Muser]

Don't worry about Duncan, the main concerns are if Manu can stay healthy and the spurs urgent need for better role players.

[Russ]

I don't know if you can luck into 4 additions by beating bushes for under-appreciated young talent.

Good point. But at least failed young players can be gotten rid of and don't create further opportunity costs. I think this roster needs athletes who can defend and rebound -- sometimes those guys get overlooked in favor of more flashy offensive types. It's time to roll the dice on some young and/or foreign talent hungry for a chance.

[sananspursfan21]

many of the nba "experts" on espn, abc, etc. have said that as long as tim duncan is playing for the spurs, they will always be contenders.

by the way, how did you see fit to use the fat joe reference?

[Jace]

I hope the Spurs make sure they have the best medical staff money can buy, the health of the Spurs is the reason they lost and will be the reason they win/lose in the future

Perhaps they could take some notes from NFL teams and use PRP and Oxygen Rich therapy etc..

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/17/sports/17blood.html?_r=1


Experts in sports medicine say that if the technique’s early promise is fulfilled, it could eventually improve the treatment of stubborn injuries like tennis elbow (http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/tennis-elbow/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier) and knee tendinitis (http://health.nytimes.com/health/guides/disease/tendinitis/overview.html?inline=nyt-classifier) for athletes of all types.
The method, which is strikingly straightforward and easy to perform, centers on injecting portions of a patient’s blood directly into the injured area, which catalyzes the body’s instincts to repair muscle, bone and other tissue. Most enticing, many doctors said, is that the technique appears to help regenerate ligament and tendon fibers, which could shorten rehabilitation time and possibly obviate surgery.



Dr. Mishra said that he was particularly encouraged by PRP therapy’s effectiveness on chronic elbow tendinitis, or tennis elbow. For a 2006 study published by The American Journal of Sports Medicine, he used the treatment on 15 of 20 patients who were considering surgery; the five others received only anesthetic. Two months later, the patients receiving PRP therapy noted a 60 percent improvement in pain measurements, compared with 16 percent for the control group.

[mingus]

w/ a healthy Manu ( phrase "healthy Manu" is starting to sound cliche and obsolete at the same time :lol ) there's less wear and tear and Duncan's body you'd have to think .

[baseline bum]

Agreed. The Spurs are in crisis but big moves are not the key. The late 90's Rockets plan is to be avoided -- trying to bring in fading stars (Barkley, Pippin) to goose another title out of your star (Olajuwon).

The Spurs have been best when they go after young no names who have potential, they're just harder to come by now. The Spurs need to find the next underappreciated asset like a Stephen Jackson or Bruce Bowen (they did that to some extent last year with Mason who should not be given up on).

Gist may be a find. There may be some Euro free agents that can help. Sanikidze? Even Mahinmi may get healthy and get a desire transplant and help (unlikely but possible). Now is the time for the Spurs FO to go back to their old ways and get value by beating the bushes.

I disagree. The Rockets' biggest problem was that Olajuwon and Barkley never wanted to share the ball. Having lived in Houston and watched at least half of the Rocket games in that period, I can say that team was ruined by two huge egos who wanted to get theirs, to hell with the rest of the team. Pippen never touched the ball in that offense unless it was to shoot a desperation three when Barkley or Hakeem couldn't get anything going on the block.

I just don't see 2003 happening again, and even the best-case find, Stephen Jackson, was still almost worthless until his second season here. Like I said in the other forum, Duncan and Ginobili aren't aging like fine wines; they're breaking down, and I don't think they have 2/3 years to wait for the team to develop young talent at the expense of guys who can produce now.

[mingus]

Spurs big three need to be fully healthy or close to it . at this point , having Duncan or Parker out for sigificant time means Manu has to shoulder the load . At 32 , and with his style of play , that's asking a lot ( just see last year when his body gave out in the playoffs ) . it's really the same situation with Duncan . if Parker or Manu is out , it's asking a lot of him to shoulder the load for one of them ( and if both are out ... :depressed ) Parker is young so he probably wont get injured , but for individual games , by the fourth quarter , he looks DRAINED ( esp. in game 4 ) . and at this point the Spurs bench isn't deep enough to help much if there is an injury to one of the big three . hopefully next year that'll change .

[Indazone]

Stevie Franchise injury. I just hope that Duncan has more fortitude to come back than Franchise....no I don't hope. I know that Duncan has more fortitude to come back plus he's not a locker room distraction.

[Darrin]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?

Not entirely. The team doesn't have to be around Duncan--he can be a piece. Teams make minute limitations all the time. The Most infamous example includes John Stockton of Utah. After the age of 34 his MPG never climbed over 30.0 again. He still managed to play the Jazz into the Finals in 1998.

David Robinson never played over 32 minutes-a-game with Tim Duncan. The trick is to surround Duncan with two or three capable big men.

[Mel_13]

I just don't see 2003 happening again, and even the best-case find, Stephen Jackson, was still almost worthless until his second season here. Like I said in the other forum, Duncan and Ginobili aren't aging like fine wines; they're breaking down, and I don't think they have 2/3 years to wait for the team to develop young talent at the expense of guys who can produce now.

And therein lies the dilemma. If Tim and Manu are indeed breaking down, is it even possible to add enough talent to make them into championship contenders? Let's say for a moment that Holt opens his wallet enough for the Spurs to use the full MLE and trade for big name player on an expensive long-term deal. Even in that fantasy land, I don't see the Spurs as contenders with TD and Manu playing below All-Star level.

I think if you reach that point with Tim and Manu, then it is time to follow the road that Detroit has gone down and at least consider trading Manu and begin rebuilding around Tony and the player you get for Manu with Tim playing a role more like DRob in 2003 than DRob in 1999.

I don't think they are quite there yet, and I'm not sure I could ever put my heart into advocating that Manu be traded. The thought of him in another NBA uniform is not one I care to contemplate.

This summer will require the most difficult decisions since at least 2003 and I'm not convinced that bold moves are necessarily the best moves. Good luck to our FO.

[SpurOutofTownFan]

mmmm, I mean, it's clear the Spurs need to get better role players, bench players. For those who've been watching the spurs for the past 6-7 years, you know one of the trademarks of this team was the depth of its bench. The last 2 years have been pathetic in this department, specially last year's playoffs when the rotation got killed against tough series with NO and LA.

[boutons_deux]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tendinosis

[Indazone]

I've read all this stuff two years ago with Francis. I hoped against all hope he'd come back. I still hold out some hope he'll make it back like Darius Miles but this type of injury can be serious. It's difficult to come back from especially if Duncan needs surgery. Then it can be as long as one year to make it back at full strength. D-Wade same injury and that first year back, he was a shell of his former self. However, today he is rated as perhaps the best player in the NBA. Difficult to say how the surgery will take.

[Obstructed_View]

If 80 percent of patients fully recover within 3-6 months, I'm not sure how what Duncan has is a "chronic degenerative condition".

[E20]

Tim made 10 straight FG's. When it matters I firmly believe that Tim will deliver. He's not gonna try to do anything athletic or anything that will bring stress to this condition, he's a smart player and knows his body and he will play effectively knowing his condition and how to work it depending on how he feels in any given game. That's why Tim will be like Kareem. He will outlast most bigs and still be productive in latter years, because he doesn't rely on having his body/physical abilities be the key part of his game.

[duncan228]

That's why Tim will be like Kareem. He will outlast most bigs and still be productive in latter years, because he doesn't rely on having his body/physical abilities be the key part of his game.

I agree he could, I don't think he will. I think he retires at the end of this contract. I hope I'm wrong.

[timvp]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?
It depends which knee you are talking about. The left one is the one he had surgery on in 2000. That one has basically bothered him since the surgery. Not sure if surgery is possible on that one or not.

His right knee is the tendinosis. He had a similar flare-up in 2004 that slowed him for the second half of that season. But the rest over the summer made in a non-factor the next season.

I wouldn't count out Duncan having another high-level season in him if he gets a good rest this summer, doesn't have to carry the load like he did for portions of this season and then gets into the playoffs fresh.

It'll be interesting to see if surgery is considered on either knee. I remember when Duncan got the surgery in 2000 that they said they might have to go back in eventually. If the tendinosis is going to heal by itself, they might try a surgical procedure on that knee.

My guess is that Duncan doesn't have surgery and they just hope rest and less regular season burden next season results in a fresher Duncan next season in the playoffs.

[mingus]

Tim made 10 straight FG's. When it matters I firmly believe that Tim will deliver. He's not gonna try to do anything athletic or anything that will bring stress to this condition, he's a smart player and knows his body and he will play effectively knowing his condition and how to work it depending on how he feels in any given game. That's why Tim will be like Kareem. He will outlast most bigs and still be productive in latter years, because he doesn't rely on having his body/physical abilities be the key part of his game.

true to a certain extent on offense (though at times this season when his injury was bothering him he looked craptastic) ... but , on defense , which is probably just as important as what he provides offensively , potential problems with his knee could slow him down enough to where he can't cover as much as ground as he used to and he's not as sharp on his rotations (this year there were games like that) ... he'll still be good because he's The Big Fundamental , but that's why it's important for the Spurs to find an athletic big for the future so that it's less of an issue ...

[duncan228]

My guess is that Duncan doesn't have surgery and they just hope rest and less regular season burden next season results in a fresher Duncan next season in the playoffs.

McDonald, tonight.


To cut, or not

Tim Duncan battled tendonosis in his right knee for the latter half of the season. Others who have had a similar condition have found surgery to be beneficial. It remains unclear whether surgery or rest remains the best option for Duncan. The Spurs just hope he is feeling better at the beginning of next season than he was at the end of this one.

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=124889

[Thomas82]

If 80 percent of patients fully recover within 3-6 months, I'm not sure how what Duncan has is a "chronic degenerative condition".

If that's the case he'll have 5 full months to recover. This 1st round exit could be a blessing in disguise. If I were Pop, I would go easy on Tim in training camp. Anyway, I think Tim will be as good as new once the season starts again.

[Thomas82]

I agree he could, I don't think he will. I think he retires at the end of this contract. I hope I'm wrong.

For some reason, I think he'll play until he's 38.

[Darrin]

mmmm, I mean, it's clear the Spurs need to get better role players, bench players. For those who've been watching the spurs for the past 6-7 years, you know one of the trademarks of this team was the depth of its bench. The last 2 years have been pathetic in this department, specially last year's playoffs when the rotation got killed against tough series with NO and LA.

Yeah, I remember Robert Horry and Brent Barry coming at the Pistons in waves during the '05 Finals.

[Extra Stout]

If 80 percent of patients fully recover within 3-6 months, I'm not sure how what Duncan has is a "chronic degenerative condition".
You've engaged in selective Wikipedia reading; the symptoms clear up in 3-6 months, but the tendon retains its less flexible repair tissue, so the likelihood of reinjury is high when the tendon is put under stress again.

[Obstructed_View]

You've engaged in selective Wikipedia reading; the symptoms clear up in 3-6 months, but the tendon retains its less flexible repair tissue, so the likelihood of reinjury is high when the tendon is put under stress again.

That's only for the 20 percent that don't fully recover. "Fully recovered" means exactly what it says.

[Extra Stout]

That's only for the 20 percent that don't fully recover. "Fully recovered" means exactly what it says.
On further reading, you're right, if Tim spends the offseason doing eccentric training, and getting the deep tendon massages, he could have a healthy knee by training camp.

[z0sa]

Tim made 10 straight FG's. When it matters I firmly believe that Tim will deliver. He's not gonna try to do anything athletic or anything that will bring stress to this condition, he's a smart player and knows his body and he will play effectively knowing his condition and how to work it depending on how he feels in any given game. That's why Tim will be like Kareem. He will outlast most bigs and still be productive in latter years, because he doesn't rely on having his body/physical abilities be the key part of his game.

+1

If Shaq is still going strong at 37 going on 38, Tim can play at least til his contract ends at near 100% of what we're used to.

[Obstructed_View]

On further reading, you're right, if Tim spends the offseason doing eccentric training, and getting the deep tendon massages, he could have a healthy knee by training camp.

The only thing that's scary is the 1 in 5 chance that he never fully recovers. I'd guess that being a seven foot professional athlete who has very little downtime doesn't help the situation much.

[clubalien]

Tim Duncan has a chronic degenerative condition in his knee. When he rests it, it will feel better. When he plays on it, it will feel worse. It is never going away, not for the rest of Duncan's career.

Why shouldn't I figure that the Tim Duncan we saw after February this year is going to be the Tim Duncan we will see after February in future seasons?

And if that indeed is the case, isn't all this talk of reloading moot?
the team will start being lead by ian... just like tim took over for david

[Nobody]

Duncan needs an athletic trainer that understand muscle imbalances, muscle length-tension relationships, and corrective exercise - like the trainers that fixed Shaq up. Spurs need to hire the Suns trainers.

[Taking it to the Hole]

the team will start being lead by ian... just like tim took over for david


Ian is nowhere near the caliber player TD is. He can't carry a team when he hasn't even had one season as a SPUR.:wow

Ian is a complementary piece, he isn't a franchise player. After Tim and Manu retire, the only player you could build around is Tony. I agree with duncan228, that TD will probably retire after this contract is up, especially if he wins one more championship within that time. The Spurs might need to endure a season of two of torment after Duncan retires to just get a lottery pick to help us. We won't be getting any Tim Duncans anytime soon.

[Jace]

Duncan needs an athletic trainer that understand muscle imbalances, muscle length-tension relationships, and corrective exercise - like the trainers that fixed Shaq up. Spurs need to hire the Suns trainers.

Agreed...to a point Suns trainers really helped Shaq out and the Spurs trainers have been less than impressive(judging with the admittedly limited info available via internet). Trainers can make a world of difference and with so many injuries this year perhaps the Spurs need to make sure they are getting the best trainers and medical staff available

[Obstructed_View]

:lol at the idea that Shaq's mobility had more to do with the training staff than with his level of interest. For people that believe that I have three words: Wait until camp...

[The Truth #6]

Kareem and Shaq had long careers for probably different reasons. Shaq loafed through the majority of his regular seasons, often sitting out for weeks at a time. Kareem on the other hand was a freak of nature physically, not to mention he was ahead of the curve in regards to conditioning, often practicing Yoga and even martial arts with Bruce Lee as a way to improve his flexibility.

[Obstructed_View]

Kareem also had a signature move that didn't require he take a lot of punishment once he'd gotten position and received the ball.

[Baseline]

The primary medical problem affecting the Spurs this off-season is the location of Popovich's head - which is currently wedged between the cheeks of his hind quarters, and has been diagnosed over the length of this season as a degenerative condition that will not improve. One expert has deduced that wild horses couldn't drag it way.

[jjktkk]

the team will start being lead by ian... just like tim took over for david

Lets be realistic here. Ian is not, nor will he ever be a Tim Duncan.