Marcus Bryant
04-29-2009, 12:06 PM
The evaluation of basketball talent has been revolutionized, as it has in other sports, namely baseball, by the introduction and use of quantitative analysis over the last decade. Baseball has had a head start over other sports by decades in terms of those who have sought to reveal hidden truths about the game and about players through the use of statistics, beginning with the establishment of the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) (http://www.sabr.org/) and the development of Sabermetrics (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabermetrics), which was based on the legendary work of Bill James (http://www.billjamesonline.net/). This was eventually picked up by others, most notably Boston Red Sox wunderkind GM Theo Epstein (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Theo_Epstein) who relied heavily on statistical analysis to construct the first World Series Champion Red Sox team since 1918 in 2004 (and again in 2007), as was chronicled in Mind Game (http://www.amazon.com/Mind-Game-Created-Blueprint-Winning/dp/0761140182/ref=pd_bbs_4?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241023040&sr=8-4) and Oakland A's GM Billy Beane (http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/oak/team/exec_bios/beane_billy.jsp), whose use of quantitative analysis in a sport dominated by wizened old baseball men who judged players primarily through eyesight and old baseball "truths" served as the object of the general narrative of the bestseller Moneyball (http://www.amazon.com/Moneyball-Art-Winning-Unfair-Game/dp/0393057658). The famed annual Baseball Prospectus (http://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Prospectus-2009-Essential-Season/dp/0452290112/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1241023219&sr=1-1) has been notably quite accurate in predicting the performance of players in Major League Baseball.
While numbers are an integral part of basketball, the application of quantitative analysis to evaluating player potential and projecting team performance is relatively new. Former Spurs intern and assistant GM Sam Presti (http://www.nba.com/spurs/features/presti_bio.html) (now GM of the Oklahoma City Thunder) was known to have used such analysis in his work in the Spurs front office and is the one acknowledged to have convinced Gregg Popovich and RC Buford to draft Tony Parker with the 28th pick in the 1st round of the 2001 NBA Draft.
There are now a variety of sources for the application of quantitative analysis in basketball. The Association for Professional Basketball Research (APBR) (http://www.apbr.org/) is one, which also hosts an APBRmetrics forum (http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/). In addition, 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/) is a good source for situational stats. databaseBasketball.com (http://www.databasebasketball.com/) and basketball-reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/) are good sources of data. Journalist John Hollinger (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fesp n%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dhollinger_john) has been an early adopter of using stats to understand the NBA and has written extensively on the subject. He maintains Alleyoop.com (http://www.alleyoop.com/) which presents some of his work.
By no means is this analytical work the beginning of the end for basketball scouts, but the ground does seem fertile for those professional teams which are willing to apply it to more objectively evaluate players. In addition, it should bring greater understanding of the game and player performance to fans. This will be a topic we will visit from time to time here in the Think Tank, as well as the more traditional methods of player evaluation.
-MB
While numbers are an integral part of basketball, the application of quantitative analysis to evaluating player potential and projecting team performance is relatively new. Former Spurs intern and assistant GM Sam Presti (http://www.nba.com/spurs/features/presti_bio.html) (now GM of the Oklahoma City Thunder) was known to have used such analysis in his work in the Spurs front office and is the one acknowledged to have convinced Gregg Popovich and RC Buford to draft Tony Parker with the 28th pick in the 1st round of the 2001 NBA Draft.
There are now a variety of sources for the application of quantitative analysis in basketball. The Association for Professional Basketball Research (APBR) (http://www.apbr.org/) is one, which also hosts an APBRmetrics forum (http://www.sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/). In addition, 82games.com (http://www.82games.com/) is a good source for situational stats. databaseBasketball.com (http://www.databasebasketball.com/) and basketball-reference.com (http://www.basketball-reference.com/) are good sources of data. Journalist John Hollinger (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=hollinger_john&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fesp n%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dhollinger_john) has been an early adopter of using stats to understand the NBA and has written extensively on the subject. He maintains Alleyoop.com (http://www.alleyoop.com/) which presents some of his work.
By no means is this analytical work the beginning of the end for basketball scouts, but the ground does seem fertile for those professional teams which are willing to apply it to more objectively evaluate players. In addition, it should bring greater understanding of the game and player performance to fans. This will be a topic we will visit from time to time here in the Think Tank, as well as the more traditional methods of player evaluation.
-MB