Hollinger: End Of The Season...Or End Of An Era?

[duncan228]

With an aging roster and little cap space, is this the end of Spurs' decade of dominance? (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090429)
By John Hollinger

End of the season … or end of an era?

It's not just that four-time champion San Antonio lost a first-round playoff series for the first time this decade Tuesday night. What's shocking is the manner in which it lost to a team that, let's face it, wasn't that good.

Perhaps the most shocking aspect of this series was the dreadful performance of the Spurs' roster, other than Tony Parker and Tim Duncan. A decade of drafting 27th will do that to you. San Antonio's supporting cast was so ineffective Dallas couldn't guard the Spurs' best player and it didn't matter.

Worse yet, two of the Spurs' three stars had physical problems this season, and one wonders how they will affect the club's fortunes going forward. Manu Ginobili missed half the season with ankle injuries. While he's still capable of playing at an extremely high level, he's no longer somebody you can pencil in for 80 games.

More worrying, perhaps, are Duncan's knee problems. With 30 points Tuesday, he showed he still can be a capable player even with the injury. The problem is, this isn't an "injury" so much as a chronic condition, and it's limiting his ability to be a defensive dominator. He blocked one shot a game over his final 20 contests this season, after averaging well more than two for his career, and his rebounding also has slipped.

One would like to think help is on the way. For the Spurs, help always has been on the way. Over the past decade, San Antonio has been far and away the best-managed organization in sports, and nobody doubts it can conjure up some magic to remain among the league's elite for a while longer.

Unfortunately, two years ago, the Spurs made a bet that the current group could last through 2010 by re-signing several veteran players to contracts that expire after next season. The Spurs already are well over next season's cap level with their commitments to Parker, Duncan, Ginobili, Roger Mason, Matt Bonner, Fabricio Oberto, Bruce Bowen, Michael Finley, Kurt Thomas, Ian Mahinmi and George Hill. In fact, they're near the luxury tax threshold just with that group.

So forget about any free-agent bonanza coming to the rescue. About the best the Spurs can do is tinker around the edges by buying out the partially guaranteed deals of Bowen and Oberto and using their midlevel exception. They won't have a first-round pick to supplement the roster, either. That was traded to Oklahoma City a season ago for Thomas.

Thus, the Spurs are left with the vexing question of how to get better with a roster that's so long in the tooth. Duncan is 33 and Ginobili is 31, and around them are only more graybeards: Bowen (37), Finley (36), Thomas (36), Oberto (34) and Jacque Vaughn (34).

Even the new guys aren't exactly spring chickens. Bonner is 29, Mason is 28 and Ime Udoka is 31 (it's still debatable whether the Spurs will choose to re-sign him). Parker and Hill are the only current rotation players on the good side of 27.

In particular, it appears the Spurs need some help in the frontcourt to supplement Duncan. For much of the season, they played with only one true big man, as 3-point ace Bonner started at power forward alongside Duncan. The result was the Spurs' worst defensive season of the Duncan era, as they finished "only" sixth in defensive efficiency instead of their usual perch in the top three. And when Duncan checked out, the likes of Thomas and Oberto proved insufficient to hold down the fort in the middle.

Help might be on the way, but probably not as soon as the Spurs would like. Former first-round pick Ian Mahinmi hardly played as a result of injuries but could earn a rotation spot next season. However, he's seen as a project. A higher-level upgrade might await in Europe, where the Spurs still own the rights to Brazilian big man Tiago Splitter, but he seems unlikely to cross the pond until a year from now.

The goods news for San Antonio is that from 2010 on, it is in as strong a position as any team in the league. Duncan and Parker are the only players under contract, and the Spurs should be far enough under the cap to make a run at one of the several major free agents, such as native Texan Chris Bosh.

The issue, however, is what they can do in the meantime. The Spurs' roster issues are deep enough that it's fair to question whether they can be a serious contender in 2009-10. And if they can't, the next fair question is how much that will hurt their standing with prospective free agents a season later.

This much is clear: Without a major infusion of talent and youth at some point in the next two years, the Spurs' quasi-dynasty of the past decade will come crashing to an end. We've had it in the back of our minds for a while, but this series, and Tuesday night's game in particular, hammered that point up to the front.

[Thomas82]

The Spurs are not done by a longshot!!

[Ghazi]

I kinda agree that the Spurs seem better equipped to make a title run in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

[Spork KIller]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.

You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2010 tips off.

The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.

[Sean Cagney]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.

You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2020 tips off.

The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.
UR RUN NEVER BEGAN YOU FAGGOT, enjoy your 0 titles.... Spurs own your team, eat a fukkin dyk. Ur team is DONE forever.

[21_Blessings]

They were done as of last season. Death by Lakers.

[fusionjazzman72]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.

You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2010 tips off.

The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.

Hmmm? Let's see the Suns are still contenders?

[xellos88330]

Spurs are fine. This season, the weaknesses of the Spurs were painfully clear. Now the FO should know without question what the team needs. I think they will be pretty strong next season.

[fusionjazzman72]

???????????????????

[Sean Cagney]

They were done as of last season. Death by Lakers.

They will retool and be back, just when you think that shyts over for them thats when it begins! They will have another run at a title.

[NewJerSpur]

They will retool and be back, just when you think that shyts over for them thats when it begins! They will have another run at a title.

:tu

[siraulo23]

?

:sleep

[nonsense729]

Here's my take

http://acrossallsports.com/2009/04/29/spurs-season-over/

[YoMamaIsCallin]

I think that drawing these dire conclusions from the end of a single season is premature.

First Hollinger says the Spurs were beaten by a team that's "not that good". Wrong -- the Mavs are peaking at exactly the right time. For some reason they've got huge chemistry and momentum going right now. They are confident and playing loose and with energy. Look at their record at the end of the season for proof. They were out of the playoffs and put on a big run to finish. Watch them vs. Denver (another team on a role) and you'll see. It would not surprise me one bit for Dallas to beat them in 6 -- win one in Denver, take two in Dallas, lose in Denver, then win it at home.

Second, the Spurs had a perfect storm of trouble at the end of the season. Manu got shut down. Tim is at 65%. All of the role players just disappeared, no one stepped up. Parker did as much as you could ask one point guard to do but it wasn't enough.

Now, Tim gets an extra 6 weeks off to heal. Manu will get better. The Spurs corporate knowledge will come together with the role players and educate them using this playoff loss as a motivator.

I really think that if they are healthy going into the playoffs next year, they have a good shot at getting to the WCF and contending for a spot in the Finals.

[TheProfessor]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.
You do, clearly.

[benefactor]

lol Hollinger.

[Agloco]

Here's my take

http://acrossallsports.com/2009/04/29/spurs-season-over/

Well, at least you got the handle right........

[timvp]

Manu Ginobili missed half the season with ankle injuries. While he's still capable of playing at an extremely high level, he's no longer somebody you can pencil in for 80 games.Uh, has Hollinger been paying attention? Since when could anyone ever pencil in Ginobili for 80 games? If he plays more than 70 games in a season, that's a plus.

And as long as the Big 3 is together for 70 or so games next year, they'll win 54-56 games in their sleep during the regular season. There's no worries about the playoffs. This year's team won 54 games with Manu out for most of the year, Duncan hurt the second half of the year, Parker not blossoming until the second half of the season and Michael Finley and Matt Bonner starting. Healthy and with any two live bodies in place of Finley and Bonner, the Spurs will be totally fine in the regular season.

The rest of his article is somewhat right. The Spurs are at a weird point. They need to do something to give themselves a shot until the summer of 2010 but doing so while sticking with the 2010 hopes will be difficult. However, they may find something now from a team looking to dump salary that is worth cashing in the 2010 plan early.

Hollinger fails to realize how good it is to have so many expiring contracts and half-guaranteed contracts. A lot of teams that want to dump long-term salary will be calling the Spurs. The Spurs could opt to take a long-term hit for a short-term boost. For example, if a player like Vince Carter is to be salary dumped, the Spurs have the assets. I don't know of many teams that can allow a team to salary dump a max deal and has the motivation to do so.

The flexibility begins this summer. It will come down to how the Spurs plan to make their splash. Between now and the end of next summer, they are going to be after big names and they have the needed bait. The hope now is to actually land a player who can extend the window.

[mountainballer]

Hollinger fails to realize how good it is to have so many expiring contracts and half-guaranteed contracts. A lot of teams that want to dump long-term salary will be calling the Spurs. The Spurs could opt to take a long-term hit for a short-term boost. For example, if a player like Vince Carter is to be salary dumped, the Spurs have the assets. I don't know of many teams that can allow a team to salary dump a max deal and has the motivation to do so.

The flexibility begins this summer. It will come down to how the Spurs plan to make their splash. Between now and the end of next summer, they are going to be after big names and they have the needed bait. The hope now is to actually land a player who can extend the window.

totally agree. the point will be, are the conservative Spurs willing to make such a move. if yes, Vince won't be the only option. (btw. the numbers of his contract are huge, but his last year isn't fully guaranteed. "only" 4 million are. makes it a little less difficult to swallow).
if it isn't VC, there is a good chance that the Bucks need to put either Jefferson or Redd on the market for dump contracts. they are deep in lux tax territory, but would need to find 7-8 new players plus re sign Charly V. a package of Bowen, Fab and Mason could bring back Jefferson. they would dump almost 7 million immediately (even more if they pay lux tax) and save another 15 from Jefferson's next years contract.
similar scenarios we could see with Caron Butler or Jamison.
btw. even Elton Brand might be available in a pure dump move.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

totally agree. the point will be, are the conservative Spurs willing to make such a move. if yes, Vince won't be the only option. (btw. the numbers of his contract are huge, but his last year isn't fully guaranteed. "only" 4 million are. makes it a little less difficult to swallow).
if it isn't VC, there is a good chance that the Bucks need to put either Jefferson or Redd on the market for dump contracts. they are deep in lux tax territory, but would need to find 7-8 new players plus re sign Charly V. a package of Bowen, Fab and Mason could bring back Jefferson. they would dump almost 7 million immediately (even more if they pay lux tax) and save another 15 from Jefferson's next years contract.
similar scenarios we could see with Caron Butler or Jamison.
btw. even Elton Brand might be available in a pure dump move.

While it is true that a lot of good players with not so friendly contracts will be available for expirings, I would only expect such a move from the Spurs around the trade deadline and only if they have given up on Manu being healthy and elite again. There is no way the Spurs go deep into lux tax territory and no way to keep 4 players with big contracts after 2010.

[timvp]

There is no way the Spurs go deep into lux tax territoryThey could get a Vince Carter and still get under the lux tax ... both this year and into the future.


and no way to keep 4 players with big contracts after 2010.The role players would have to cost less but it's certainly possible. Manu's contract going forward is also a wildcard that can be altered to open room.

[Extra Stout]

Responding to various points in the thread:

It would be easier for the Spurs to trade expiring contracts to acquire good players than it would be to attract free agents to play with a declining Tim Duncan near the end of his career in an outpost like San Antonio. This summer is really the summer to get things done; it's now or never.

The Spurs really do have to accomplish a ton this summer. Their entire frontcourt rotation, 3 through 5, starters and reserves, around Tim Duncan must be replaced. Maybe Matt Bonner could stick around as the fifth big. That's it. Claiming that "the Spurs are fine" is simply shoving one's head in the sand.

The Mavs are not that good. Even if they are "peaking at the right time," their peak is not that high. This Mavs team is a shell of the 2005-2007 Mavs teams. The Western Conference this year basically has one elite team: the Lakers. The rest of the playoff qualifiers are scrappy equals the caliber of which in previous years rarely made it out of the first round. The Spurs did not just lose to the 2006 Mavericks. They just lost to a team that one of the championship Spurs teams would have beaten 4-1.

The Spurs shot their wad winning 54 games, but at the end, they really were only the 8th best team in the West. I think they would have beaten New Orleans, but in a hypothetical matchup with non-qualifier Phoenix, they would have lost. This really was a weak Spurs team with little competence on offense or defense outside the Big 3. We should not delude ourselves into thinking had circumstances been different, this team could have contended.

One key component about how many games the Spurs might win next year is belief. The Spurs have always maintained a lot of confidence they would be there at the end, because for so long they always have been. If they go into next year with a lot of the same has-beens and never-weres, you wonder whether they'll really believe in themselves or be able to trust one another. Will you make that pass to a decrepit, antediluvian Finley when you know he'll either clang the shot, feebly fumble the ball out of bounds, or throw it right to the other team for a breakaway dunk? Will you sacrifice the body on defense knowing that Drew Gooden will be off in never-never land and his man will get an easy layup? Teams can fall apart pretty quickly when that doubt sets in. I don't think if the Spurs trot out the same garbage around the Big 3 they did this year that they'll sleepwalk to 55 wins. I think the Big 3 will start to lose heart a little, and the Spurs will replay their 1983-84 season, and that will be the end.

It won't be easy to rebuild on the fly. We can take solace in knowing the Spurs have done it before, but it will be even tougher this time. After the 1999-2000 season, they patched things together with veterans for a year, then started hitting jackpot after jackpot with major players: Bowen, Parker, Stephen Jackson, Ginobili. The difference is that back then Tim Duncan was at his absolute MVP peak; now he's aging with a bum knee. In 2001-02, without Duncan the Spurs would have been a deep-lottery team; with him they won 58 games and tested the Lakers. That margin for error is not there now. Also, the Spurs aren't head and shoulders above the rest of the league like they were in international scouting nine years ago. Chances are slim, but they're not zero... yet.

There can be no 2010 plan. 2010 is too late. If the Spurs waltz into next season with the likes of Michael Finley and Matt Bonner and Kurt Thomas called upon to be major players, then they'll flirt with the lottery, and the summer of 2010 will be the summer of goodbyes. The Spurs promised Tim Duncan they would be able to contend every year as long as he was here. Don't count on his being so comfortable in San Antonio that he won't ask for a trade if they give him another shit supporting cast to deal with, and if he asks for one, don't doubt that Pop has enough respect for him to grant him his wish even if he gets 40 cents on the dollar back.

[SenorSpur]

Thus, the Spurs are left with the vexing question of how to get better with a roster that's so long in the tooth. Duncan is 33 and Ginobili is 31, and around them are only more graybeards: Bowen (37), Finley (36), Thomas (36), Oberto (34) and Jacque Vaughn (34).

Even the new guys aren't exactly spring chickens. Bonner is 29, Mason is 28 and Ime Udoka is 31 (it's still debatable whether the Spurs will choose to re-sign him). Parker and Hill are the only current rotation players on the good side of 27.

In particular, it appears the Spurs need some help in the frontcourt to supplement Duncan. For much of the season, they played with only one true big man, as 3-point ace Bonner started at power forward alongside Duncan. The result was the Spurs' worst defensive season of the Duncan era, as they finished "only" sixth in defensive efficiency instead of their usual perch in the top three. And when Duncan checked out, the likes of Thomas and Oberto proved insufficient to hold down the fort in the middle.

As Spurs fans, we all have known that this is not a young team. Even knowing that, it's still shocking to me to actually read it in print just how old this roster is. Sort of like walking past the mirror one day and suddenly realizing you've gained 20 lbs. You ask yourself "how did this happen" or "how did it come to this?" And this is after watching the FO take a couple of steps to improve the roster this previous offseason. Should anyone be surprised that this was reflected in the downward spiral of the Spurs defensive efficiency this past season?

Having the Big Three healthy and active will usually dictate the team's success next season. Yet this recent playoff decline is evidence that the roster is deficient in several areas. It also serves notice that the supporting cast is long overdue for some serious upgrades. While I don't believe the picture is as bleak as Hollinger tries to paint it, this is certainly a critical decision period for the Spurs FO. Whatever decisions they make this summer will have a dual impact. It will affect whether the championship window stays open for another year and it will ultimately impact the direction of the so-called 2010 plan.

[sananspursfan21]

i don't know what i want more... 2009-2010 title or a bunch of money for the 2010 offseason. hmmm...

[tmtcsc]

With an aging roster and little cap space, is this the end of Spurs' decade of dominance? (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090429)
By John Hollinger



It's not just that four-time champion San Antonio lost a first-round playoff series for the first time this decade Tuesday night. What's shocking is the manner in which it lost to a team that, let's face it, wasn't that good.



Thank you. That's exactly how I feel. We all knew that winning a title wasn't likely but to lose to a Dallas team that lacks character and chemistry was the most surprising thing of all. We just didn't have the talent after Tony and Tim to make baskets or stops.

Dallas will get their asses handed to them in the next round. JJ Barea ??? :lol



Duncan and Parker are the only players under contract, and the Spurs should be far enough under the cap to make a run at one of the several major free agents, such as native Texan Chris Bosh.


Why the hell does Chris Bosh's name keep getting brought up ? That dude sucks for the amount of money he would cost. Not good value.

[timvp]

It would be easier for the Spurs to trade expiring contracts to acquire good players than it would be to attract free agents to play with a declining Tim Duncan near the end of his career in an outpost like San Antonio. This summer is really the summer to get things done; it's now or never.Agree. Trade is obviously the easiest route. You don't have to worry about selling the player on the team ... you just have to be willing to absorb the bad contract. Very cut and dry.

However, free agency shouldn't be totally discounted. Utah opened up cap room and got signatures from Maggette, Boozer and Okur. I wouldn't exactly call Salt Lake City the optimal paradise of the average NBA player.

I don't worry about selling San Antonio or selling the state of the team, the reason why the 2010 plan is so worrisome is there will be a huge amount of competition. There's going to be a bunch of teams fighting over the same crop of players. Taking advantage of the teams looking to shed salary to get into that competition seems like the safer and easier route.

The largest downside to settling for a trade is that the potential payoff isn't nearly as high but with memories of a Rasho and Hedo pull in the summer of 2003 after opening up cap space, the safe route sounds enticing. There's a chance you can land a Chris Bosh but there's also a chance you end up having to resort to Plan Y and Plan Z.


The Spurs really do have to accomplish a ton this summer. Their entire frontcourt rotation, 3 through 5, starters and reserves, around Tim Duncan must be replaced. Maybe Matt Bonner could stick around as the fifth big. That's it. Claiming that "the Spurs are fine" is simply shoving one's head in the sand.For the bigs, it depends on if the Spurs can get a legit starter. If they can, the bench bigs of some combination of Bonner, Thomas, Mahinmi and Gist would be fine.

The three needs to be addressed. Obviously the best route would be to bring in a starting quality small forward. But a scenario in which the Spurs run Ginobili, Hill, Mason, Bowen and a youngster or two (Hairston, Williams, draft pick, M. Almond, R. McCants, etc.) at the 2/3 isn't horrible. It's smaller than what would be preferred but the added speed could help the Spurs adjust to the faster NBA.

Getting Finley out of the mix by itself would solve a lot of problems at the three. The Spurs literally couldn't be worse off if they tried. 6-foot-2 Hill at the three would be better than Finley at the three next year.


The Mavs are not that good. Even if they are "peaking at the right time," their peak is not that high. This Mavs team is a shell of the 2005-2007 Mavs teams. The Western Conference this year basically has one elite team: the Lakers. The rest of the playoff qualifiers are scrappy equals the caliber of which in previous years rarely made it out of the first round. The Spurs did not just lose to the 2006 Mavericks. They just lost to a team that one of the championship Spurs teams would have beaten 4-1.Good points. But you take Manu off the team in 2005 and they probably lose to this Mavs team. You take Manu off the 2007 and they very well could lose to this Mavs team. These weren't the 2006 Mavs but the Spurs weren't really the Spurs so you can't do a straight equation.


The Spurs shot their wad winning 54 games, but at the end, they really were only the 8th best team in the West. I think they would have beaten New Orleans, but in a hypothetical matchup with non-qualifier Phoenix, they would have lost. This really was a weak Spurs team with little competence on offense or defense outside the Big 3. We should not delude ourselves into thinking had circumstances been different, this team could have contended. Even with a healthy Manu, the Spurs had a slim chance to win a championship. I agree with your assessment that the supporting cast was just too weak. Finley is not a heavy-minute, defensive-stopper, go-to-clutch-shooter starter on a championship team. Bonner was obviously a choke waiting to happen.

But even if the Spurs "shot their wad" it wasn't even a semi healthy version of the team. It was a version of the Spurs that had Manu never at 100%, Duncan hobbled after the All-Star break and TP missing time in the beginning of the year. When the Big 3 was all together, they had a very good winning percentage despite never really finding a rhythm and having a horrible supporting cast.

54 wins out of the jumbled mess we saw this year is impressive in retrospect. Unless one wants to assume that Manu won't recover, Duncan will stay hobbled and the supporting players won't be upgraded, then the 54 wins should be a source of optimism. And on the other hand, if Manu won't recover and Duncan remains hobbled, anything done or not done is a moot point because the Spurs wouldn't be able to recover the loss via any trade that can be made.


One key component about how many games the Spurs might win next year is belief. The Spurs have always maintained a lot of confidence they would be there at the end, because for so long they always have been. If they go into next year with a lot of the same has-beens and never-weres, you wonder whether they'll really believe in themselves or be able to trust one another. Will you make that pass to a decrepit, antediluvian Finley when you know he'll either clang the shot, feebly fumble the ball out of bounds, or throw it right to the other team for a breakaway dunk? Will you sacrifice the body on defense knowing that Drew Gooden will be off in never-never land and his man will get an easy layup? Teams can fall apart pretty quickly when that doubt sets in. I don't think if the Spurs trot out the same garbage around the Big 3 they did this year that they'll sleepwalk to 55 wins. I think the Big 3 will start to lose heart a little, and the Spurs will replay their 1983-84 season, and that will be the end.I'm not sure what they would do in the regular season but I do agree that if the Finleys and Bonners are still integral cogs in the machine, they won't win a championship. The Big 3 with me and you at the forward spots would play .500 ball, though :)


It won't be easy to rebuild on the fly. We can take solace in knowing the Spurs have done it before, but it will be even tougher this time. After the 1999-2000 season, they patched things together with veterans for a year, then started hitting jackpot after jackpot with major players: Bowen, Parker, Stephen Jackson, Ginobili. The difference is that back then Tim Duncan was at his absolute MVP peak; now he's aging with a bum knee. In 2001-02, without Duncan the Spurs would have been a deep-lottery team; with him they won 58 games and tested the Lakers. That margin for error is not there now. Also, the Spurs aren't head and shoulders above the rest of the league like they were in international scouting nine years ago. Chances are slim, but they're not zero... yet.The Spurs definitely need to uncover a couple gems to return to championship status. But I'd say that current Duncan + Parker + Ginobili > Duncan in his prime. So while that team had Duncan in his prime to build around, this team has an equally strong foundation to build around. Even aging Duncan + Parker is probably close to the equivalent of prime Duncan in the summer of 2001.

It's going to require luck, though. The Spurs will need Ginobili to squeeze out a few more years of high level play without breaking down in the playoffs. The Spurs need Duncan to remain elite. They need Parker to remain healthy and probably get even better. And then they need to get their hands on another damn good player to replace what Bowen brought, in addition to three or four trustworthy role players. Hill has a chance to be one of those trustworthy role players but that isn't certain at this point.


There can be no 2010 plan. 2010 is too late. If the Spurs waltz into next season with the likes of Michael Finley and Matt Bonner and Kurt Thomas called upon to be major players, then they'll flirt with the lottery, and the summer of 2010 will be the summer of goodbyes. The Spurs promised Tim Duncan they would be able to contend every year as long as he was here. Don't count on his being so comfortable in San Antonio that he won't ask for a trade if they give him another shit supporting cast to deal with, and if he asks for one, don't doubt that Pop has enough respect for him to grant him his wish even if he gets 40 cents on the dollar back.I disagree. Duncan structured his contract to open up room for 2010. That's been the plan the whole time. I doubt they'd reach the end of the tunnel and then Duncan wants out before the plan can actually take place. Now if the Spurs strike out this summer and get a trash grab in 2010, then yeah Duncan might be looking for greener pastures.

That said, I don't doubt morale would be low if the Spurs try to sell the idea of coming back with the same garbage that was out there this year. There needs to be something else added to the mix other than a "this year we're gonna be healthy!" slogan. I don't think anyone is expecting an overhaul but at least one above average player needs to be added to the mix via free agency or trade this summer ... and the gangrene needs to be removed from the starting lineup.

[Borosai]

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/9011/sthollingerbumpe8.jpg

[Flux451]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.

You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2010 tips off.

The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.

If you didn't give a shit what we think you wouldn't post here.
Quadriplegics with pee-bags need less attention then you do.

SUNS, ringless since 1968 and still going.

[FromWayDowntown]

I'm tempted to think as Extra Stout does. With the inherent uncertainties of free agency in 2010, does it make more sense to accelerate the plan a year and use the many expiring contracts in a market with known quantities and diminished competition -- in fact, the competition will be among those who are trying to dump long-term contracts to get themselves into the mix in 2010.

Duncan's woes in 2008-09 are the clearest proof of what we've all known for a while -- that the end is near. Do you hold out hope for the summer of 2010 and wade into the fray knowing: (1) that most everyone else intends to be a part of it; and (2) that some teams have inherent advantages (the ability to offer bigger deals, the lure of bigger markets, the availability of younger rosters and rising stars) that the Spurs can't really match? Do you do that knowing that without some pretty significant changes, your existing max (with no injuries and some good fortune) might be the conference finals and that your chicken little bottom might be entry into the summer of 2010 with injury-plagued stars and a late lottery pick?

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

I'm tempted to think as Extra Stout does. With the inherent uncertainties of free agency in 2010, does it make more sense to accelerate the plan a year and use the many expiring contracts in a market with known quantities and diminished competition -- in fact, the competition will be among those who are trying to dump long-term contracts to get themselves into the mix in 2010.

Duncan's woes in 2008-09 are the clearest proof of what we've all known for a while -- that the end is near. Do you hold out hope for the summer of 2010 and wade into the fray knowing: (1) that most everyone else intends to be a part of it; and (2) that some teams have inherent advantages (the ability to offer bigger deals, the lure of bigger markets, the availability of younger rosters and rising stars) that the Spurs can't really match? Do you do that knowing that without some pretty significant changes, your existing max (with no injuries and some good fortune) might be the conference finals and that your chicken little bottom might be entry into the summer of 2010 with injury-plagued stars and a late lottery pick?

Making moves this summer also gives the Spurs an additional year to make a run at that 5th title while Duncan still has something left in the tank. The summer 2010 plan basically says that the Spurs are going to sacrifice another one of Tim's few remaining years because, unfortunately, the current group isn't going to win another championship without a fair amount of retooling.

[FromWayDowntown]

Making moves this summer also gives the Spurs an additional year to make a run at that 5th title while Duncan still has something left in the tank. The summer 2010 plan basically says that the Spurs are going to sacrifice another one of Tim's few remaining years because, unfortunately, the current group isn't going to win another championship without a fair amount of retooling.

True, and without any guarantee that you'll actually get one of the prizes of the Summer of 2010.

Christ, I'm starting to sound like Ghost Writer.

[The Franchise]

End of an era? No. End of thinking they can stack shit around their best players and still expect to win? Yes. This team is only two good consistent role players away from being the Spurs all of us are used to.

[timvp]

Yeah, I'm fine with going the trade route now. You aren't going to get as good of a player as you might in free agency ... but that risk and potentially wasted year makes it a very strong argument to beat.

[Agloco]

End of an era? No. End of thinking they can stack shit around their best players and still expect to win? Yes. This team is only two good consistent role players away from being the Spurs all of us are used to.

+1

It's not all bad. We're a good interior defender and a consistent sharpshooter away. Tricky part is how to deal for them given how the contracts stack up though.

[timvp]

End of an era? No. End of thinking they can stack shit around their best players and still expect to win? Yes.Yeah, the question the Spurs ask themselves can no longer be "will this role player mess anything up or get in the way?"

The question now has to shift to "is this role player good at basketball?"

[FromWayDowntown]

Without considering a lot of other specifics, I'd think that you could come pretty damned close to being in the elite mix again heading into 2009-10 with a summer overhaul that looked something like this:

1. make a deal with the Bucks to acquire a guy like Jefferson, who has the chops to play in big games and probably a longing to do that again;

2. identify 1 rotation guy and 1 deep bench guy in the mix of Gist, Hairston (maybe), Williams, and whoever you pick at 37;

3. use the MLE on a rebounding big man; and

4. spend the summer making someone other than Roger Mason the backup point guard.

That would add some youth and depth to the wings, address the hole in the middle next to Duncan, solve the stagnancy problems in the 2nd unit, and still maintain some flexibility for the following summer -- just not enough (probably) to make a big splash with a max level player. Of course, it's all the better if Mahinmi can get healthy and be a serviceable extra big and better still if Splitter somehow can be enticed to come over now and proves to be what he's supposed to be.

[StoneBuddha]

4. spend the summer making someone other than Roger Mason the backup point guard.



Isn't this clearly Hill at this point?

I also hope the Spurs find some way of prying Splittler from (used-to-be) Tau a year earlier. This allows them target a good wing player or add depth with their full MLE.

Put me in the group of people who want to make their move this off-season, not in 2010. Too many risks, and the foundation gets a year older with that approach. I hope the FO isn't so cavalier about throwing away one of Tim's last ALL-NBA years.

[FromWayDowntown]

Isn't this clearly Hill at this point?

Reading some of what McDonald has written in the last couple of days (this, in particular) (http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/Spurs_roster_analysis.html), I get the sense that the Spurs still have some hope that it might be Roger Mason, Jr. I've noted elsewhere my hope that the Spurs will send George Hill to the summer league with instructions to play those games as a true point guard -- almost with instructions that he'll be yanked from the game if he shoots the ball. It's not the optimal way to assess his ability to run the offense, but it will certainly give him plenty of opportunities to work on the craft and, hopefully, improve.

I think Hill is a useful piece going forward, whether as a point or an off-guard, because he's extremely athletic, uber competitive, and seems unafraid of a big moment -- which is more than can be said (I think) of certain other role players currently on this roster.

[SpurOutofTownFan]

Nice article and very well written, of course spurm fans will not agree with Hollinger but then again who gives a shit what these filthy fans think.

You are Done, Duncan is getting older and I've got news for you, Duncan will be 2 years older by the time the 2009-2010 tips off.

The Spurms have no future whatsoever...years of mediocrity are just in front of them.

It's funny you would spend time writing in the same forum those spurm filthy fans are. Ignorance is a bliss.

[ehz33satx]

filthy fans

Filthy fans? WOW! Where does that stem from? Pure, unadulterated hatred or sheer, petty jealousy?

[anonoftheinternets]

yeah, the question the spurs ask themselves can no longer be "will this role player mess anything up or get in the way?"

the question now has to shift to "is this role player good at basketball?"

+1

Previous teams won by not doing anything wrong, unfortunately that is not sufficient going forward.

[Solid D]

There are going to be some opportunities to improve but adding players who can create off the dribble and someone with length who can defend the lane must be at the top of the list.

Most importantly, the Spurs have to be healthy. Even if the Spurs had added Camby in trade for Hill and Bowen, if Camby was gimpy or in a suit sitting beside Manu against the Mavs...the Spurs would have looked even worse and probably would have been swept and Spurs fans would be cursing that trade.

In order to compete talent-wise with teams like the Lakers and Cavs, the Spurs need to add another impact player. It doesn't need to be an NBA All-Star but another difference-maker. You would love to see the Spurs trade for or add a player the quality and potential of a Marreese Speights or Thaddeus Young or Anthony Randolph. Right now, as bad as this sounds, the Spurs could have used CJ Watson off their bench.

[spurtech09]

End of the season....spurs will be back and better than ever ....:)

[Spurs Brazil]

Without considering a lot of other specifics, I'd think that you could come pretty damned close to being in the elite mix again heading into 2009-10 with a summer overhaul that looked something like this:

1. make a deal with the Bucks to acquire a guy like Jefferson, who has the chops to play in big games and probably a longing to do that again;

2. identify 1 rotation guy and 1 deep bench guy in the mix of Gist, Hairston (maybe), Williams, and whoever you pick at 37;

3. use the MLE on a rebounding big man; and

4. spend the summer making someone other than Roger Mason the backup point guard.

That would add some youth and depth to the wings, address the hole in the middle next to Duncan, solve the stagnancy problems in the 2nd unit, and still maintain some flexibility for the following summer -- just not enough (probably) to make a big splash with a max level player. Of course, it's all the better if Mahinmi can get healthy and be a serviceable extra big and better still if Splitter somehow can be enticed to come over now and proves to be what he's supposed to be.

Agree 100%

Trade Mason/Oberto/Bruce for RJ; bring Bruce back for the minimum.
Sign a big who can rebound and prepare for the parade
TD and Manu are getting old. We need to win now. Fuck the 2010 plan

[Mel_13]

They could get a Vince Carter and still get under the lux tax ... both this year and into the future.
.


As the owner of the board, I have quoted your post, but am anxious to hear from any of the long-time members who have made similar suggestions in this and other threads.

Please tell me how you get VC or RJ, keep the Big 3, and stay under the tax. Let alone do all that and use the MLE.

The lux tax limit for 2009-10 will be between 69.4M and 72.6M. Post 17 in this thread in the Think Tank has details supporting that range.
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=124692

For the sake of argument, lets use the highest number. Lets also assume that Finley does not exercise his option.

The Big 3 will make 45.5M next year and VC will 16.3M for a total of 61.8M.

72.6 - 61.8 = 10.8M for at least nine players. If you use the MLE of about 5.5M, you would have 5.3M for eight players.

And you would still have at least one contract of between 3.2M and 4.0M left on the roster after the trades, not to say anything about Hill, Ian or Bowen for the vet min.

I keep seeing these scenarios advocating a big contract trade target, sometimes with an additional MLE player, but I have yet to see any example of how that is possible without exceeding the lux tax by several million dollars.

Please show how the Spurs can do this.

Thanks

[temujin]

When Hollinger's era or season end?

Can't wait.

[superbigtime]

totally agree. the point will be, are the conservative Spurs willing to make such a move. if yes, Vince won't be the only option. (btw. the numbers of his contract are huge, but his last year isn't fully guaranteed. "only" 4 million are. makes it a little less difficult to swallow).
if it isn't VC, there is a good chance that the Bucks need to put either Jefferson or Redd on the market for dump contracts. they are deep in lux tax territory, but would need to find 7-8 new players plus re sign Charly V. a package of Bowen, Fab and Mason could bring back Jefferson. they would dump almost 7 million immediately (even more if they pay lux tax) and save another 15 from Jefferson's next years contract.
similar scenarios we could see with Caron Butler or Jamison.
btw. even Elton Brand might be available in a pure dump move.

Unfortunately almost all of these guys have had lots of injury issues. And Antawn Jamison's salary is crazy gaudy, on par with VC. Spurs showed a clear interest in Vince and they could do alot worse. And Vince was healthy last 2 seasons.

[superbigtime]

You would love to see the Spurs trade for or add a player the quality and potential of a Marreese Speights or Thaddeus Young or Anthony Randolph. Right now, as bad as this sounds, the Spurs could have used CJ Watson off their bench.

Doesn't sound bad...it's the truth! And Thaddeus Young is just a badass.

[Stringer_Bell]

End of an era? No. End of thinking they can stack shit around their best players and still expect to win? Yes. This team is only two good consistent role players away from being the Spurs all of us are used to.

Agreed. BUT, I also think that we've got some good pieces already that are still adjusting to the system. Mason and Hill in particular. There might be some chemistry issues too as far as guys adjusting to Manu's playing style, sometimes the second unit looked awkward when playing with him.

Not the end of an era at all, but the game is more fierce than ever.