duncan228
04-30-2009, 07:22 PM
The second-round series between the Mavs and Nuggets could go the distance (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090430)
By John Hollinger
OK, let's get right to the big question for the Mavs-Nuggets series: How much of their Round 1 success was them, and how much was their opponent?
We have to ask this in the case of Dallas and Denver, who will kick off their conference semifinal series Sunday afternoon after each blew past an injury-riddled opponent with surprising ease.
Denver embarrassed New Orleans in their five-game series, winning by margins of 29, 15, 58 and 21. Dallas, meanwhile, dispatched the Spurs in five despite having only two games on its home floor; in one of those it led by 35 points.
All of which is a sign of how well they played & unless it's more a sign of how awful their opponents were. You can make strong arguments either way.
As brilliantly as the Nuggets played against New Orleans, every key Hornet except Rasual Butler was playing hurt, and in four of the five games, the Hornets visibly laid down once they got behind. As for Dallas, the Mavs were playing an aging, weary San Antonio team that was missing Manu Ginobili and had a diminished Tim Duncan.
On the other hand, the Mavs are now 9-2 in their past 11 games, 10 of which were against teams with winning records, and they're 17-1 in their last 18 home games.
It's a similar story for Denver: If you ignore a meaningless season-ending loss to Portland, the Nuggets are 18-3 in their past 21 games and 16-1 in their past 17 home games. Those weren't squeakers, either -- 15 of the 16 home victories were by double digits, and they went on the road to inflict Monday's 58-point smackdown of the Hornets.
For each side, the improved play of late has been largely a function of a renaissance by their stars. Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki ended the season with a string of 25 20-point games, the longest in the league this season. He struggled in the San Antonio series but rebounded to torch the Spurs for 31 in the Game 5 clincher.
Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has rebounded after shooting unusually poorly for most of the season (44.3 percent) -- most likely because of an elbow problem. But he blew up in the last four games of the New Orleans series, averaging 26.8 points and shooting nearly 50 percent. If he can continue this kind of scoring, which is similar to his 2006-07 and 2007-08 rates, the Nuggets' seventh-ranked offense moves up another notch.
Anthony has defended with more zeal of late as well, mirroring his team's renewed focus on that end in the wake of Marcus Camby's departure. Though criticized as a defense-averse bunch, the Nuggets were actually eighth in Defensive Efficiency this season. The Mavs, in contrast, were only 17th.
Also, Anthony's willingness to probe defenses and share the ball rather than depend on the jab-step-and-long-jumper-off-the-front-rim routine has been a revelation. He averaged more than five assists in the New Orleans series and more than four in the last nine regular season games. And he's not the only star with a hot hand right now -- Chauncey Billups had a monster first round against the Hornets.
Ultimately, I see this series coming down to two factors: matchups and home-court advantage. Denver has a really good matchup on Nowitzki with Kenyon Martin, who shut down the Hornets' David West in the first round, and can put defensive pests Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter on high-scoring reserve Jason Terry. And when Martin checks out, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, who led the league in blocks per minute, and high-octane reserve Renaldo Balkman are capable foils for Nowitzki.
Dallas is likely to counter by having Howard and Antoine Wright take turns checking Anthony, and by putting Jason Kidd on Billups. But the Mavs may struggle to match up against bench ace J.R. Smith, and the size of Denver's backcourt may limit first-round hero J.J. Barea to spot duty in this series.
Additionally, Josh Howard's troublesome ankle may limit his ability to contain Anthony. Though he was fantastic against San Antonio, he also never had to guard an opponent of consequence. If the Mavs switch defenders, it could force offensively challenged teammates like Wright or James Singleton to stay on the court for heavy minutes.
Those matchups are part of the reason the Nuggets won all four meetings between these teams this season. Sometimes head-to-head records can be skewed by the timing of the games, but it's telling that Denver won twice in Texas.
As for home-court advantage, look at those numbers again: These two teams are a combined 33-2 in their past 35 home games. It sure looks like it could be one of those series in which the home team wins every game, especially since the Nuggets have been amazing in their building over the past two months, even when they weren't playing the Hornets.
That's why I'm picking Denver to prevail in seven games. Both teams are peaking at the right time, but the Nuggets have superior depth and better matchups with their stars -- and they would get a seventh game in an increasingly raucous Pepsi Center.
By John Hollinger
OK, let's get right to the big question for the Mavs-Nuggets series: How much of their Round 1 success was them, and how much was their opponent?
We have to ask this in the case of Dallas and Denver, who will kick off their conference semifinal series Sunday afternoon after each blew past an injury-riddled opponent with surprising ease.
Denver embarrassed New Orleans in their five-game series, winning by margins of 29, 15, 58 and 21. Dallas, meanwhile, dispatched the Spurs in five despite having only two games on its home floor; in one of those it led by 35 points.
All of which is a sign of how well they played & unless it's more a sign of how awful their opponents were. You can make strong arguments either way.
As brilliantly as the Nuggets played against New Orleans, every key Hornet except Rasual Butler was playing hurt, and in four of the five games, the Hornets visibly laid down once they got behind. As for Dallas, the Mavs were playing an aging, weary San Antonio team that was missing Manu Ginobili and had a diminished Tim Duncan.
On the other hand, the Mavs are now 9-2 in their past 11 games, 10 of which were against teams with winning records, and they're 17-1 in their last 18 home games.
It's a similar story for Denver: If you ignore a meaningless season-ending loss to Portland, the Nuggets are 18-3 in their past 21 games and 16-1 in their past 17 home games. Those weren't squeakers, either -- 15 of the 16 home victories were by double digits, and they went on the road to inflict Monday's 58-point smackdown of the Hornets.
For each side, the improved play of late has been largely a function of a renaissance by their stars. Dallas' Dirk Nowitzki ended the season with a string of 25 20-point games, the longest in the league this season. He struggled in the San Antonio series but rebounded to torch the Spurs for 31 in the Game 5 clincher.
Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has rebounded after shooting unusually poorly for most of the season (44.3 percent) -- most likely because of an elbow problem. But he blew up in the last four games of the New Orleans series, averaging 26.8 points and shooting nearly 50 percent. If he can continue this kind of scoring, which is similar to his 2006-07 and 2007-08 rates, the Nuggets' seventh-ranked offense moves up another notch.
Anthony has defended with more zeal of late as well, mirroring his team's renewed focus on that end in the wake of Marcus Camby's departure. Though criticized as a defense-averse bunch, the Nuggets were actually eighth in Defensive Efficiency this season. The Mavs, in contrast, were only 17th.
Also, Anthony's willingness to probe defenses and share the ball rather than depend on the jab-step-and-long-jumper-off-the-front-rim routine has been a revelation. He averaged more than five assists in the New Orleans series and more than four in the last nine regular season games. And he's not the only star with a hot hand right now -- Chauncey Billups had a monster first round against the Hornets.
Ultimately, I see this series coming down to two factors: matchups and home-court advantage. Denver has a really good matchup on Nowitzki with Kenyon Martin, who shut down the Hornets' David West in the first round, and can put defensive pests Dahntay Jones and Anthony Carter on high-scoring reserve Jason Terry. And when Martin checks out, Chris "Birdman" Andersen, who led the league in blocks per minute, and high-octane reserve Renaldo Balkman are capable foils for Nowitzki.
Dallas is likely to counter by having Howard and Antoine Wright take turns checking Anthony, and by putting Jason Kidd on Billups. But the Mavs may struggle to match up against bench ace J.R. Smith, and the size of Denver's backcourt may limit first-round hero J.J. Barea to spot duty in this series.
Additionally, Josh Howard's troublesome ankle may limit his ability to contain Anthony. Though he was fantastic against San Antonio, he also never had to guard an opponent of consequence. If the Mavs switch defenders, it could force offensively challenged teammates like Wright or James Singleton to stay on the court for heavy minutes.
Those matchups are part of the reason the Nuggets won all four meetings between these teams this season. Sometimes head-to-head records can be skewed by the timing of the games, but it's telling that Denver won twice in Texas.
As for home-court advantage, look at those numbers again: These two teams are a combined 33-2 in their past 35 home games. It sure looks like it could be one of those series in which the home team wins every game, especially since the Nuggets have been amazing in their building over the past two months, even when they weren't playing the Hornets.
That's why I'm picking Denver to prevail in seven games. Both teams are peaking at the right time, but the Nuggets have superior depth and better matchups with their stars -- and they would get a seventh game in an increasingly raucous Pepsi Center.