Lakers vs. Nuggets Series Previews

[duncan228]

No. 1 LOS ANGELES LAKERS (65-17, 8-4) vs. No. 2 DENVER NUGGETS (54-28, 8-2). (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=ap-conferencefinalscapsules&prov=ap&type=lgns)

Season series: Lakers, 3-1. Two meetings were in November, one before the trade for Chauncey Billups that remade the Nuggets. Billups averaged 18 points and 7.7 assists in the other three games, but the Lakers did a good job on Carmelo Anthony (14.5 ppg, 32.8 percent shooting) and limited the Nuggets to 13-of-61 shooting from 3-point range in the final three games. Kobe Bryant averaged 31 points, while Pau Gasol had a couple of huge performances in averaging 18.3 points and 12.3 rebounds.

Storyline: The Lakers dominated the Western Conference in the regular season, but after needing seven games to get past undermanned Houston in the second round, they haven’t looked like the West’s best in the playoffs. Denver has, overwhelming New Orleans and Dallas and looking capable of making its first NBA finals appearance.

Key matchup I: Derek Fisher vs. Billups. Billups is playing in his seventh straight conference finals and is the reason the Nuggets, who’ve made it this far for the first time since 1985, won’t be nervous. Fisher was badly outplayed by Houston’s Aaron Brooks and his shot has been off lately, but the Lakers will count on his experience against Billups.

Key matchup II: Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin and Nene. Gasol’s 21-point, 18-rebound performance in the clincher against Houston looked like a couple of his games against Denver this season. He went for 16 and 16 in the first meeting, and 27 and 19 in the last. The Nuggets’ frontcourt tandem will try to be physical with Gasol to prevent him from those types of big nights.

X-factor: Andrew Bynum. The center has been wildly inconsistent since returning from his knee injury, and the Lakers are hoping for the Bynum they saw in Games 5 and 7 against Houston (14 points), not the scoreless one from Games 4 and 6. He averaged 11 points and 9.3 rebounds while shooting 62 percent against Denver—and the Lakers won all three times he played.

Prediction: Lakers in 7.

[mouse]

Good info thanks ! :tu

[Allanon]

Here's one from Hollinger explaining his "Nuggets in 6" pick. He pussed out on his prediction on the end though. Pick one or the other John, don't leave any safety nets :)

Nuggets at Lakers - Western Conference Finals (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090518)
PER Diem: May 18, 2009 (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090518)

The Los Angeles Lakers and Denver Nuggets tip off the Western Conference finals Tuesday night (9 ET, ESPN). Leading up to that, I've been asked to answer a seemingly simple question:

Who's better?

At first glance, the answer may seem obvious. The Lakers won 65 games during the regular season, the Nuggets only 54, and L.A.'s average scoring margin (plus-7.7) was more than double Denver's (plus-3.4). L.A. won three of four regular-season meetings between the two teams, and a year ago the Lakers swept the Nuggets in four games in the first round. None of those games was particularly close.

But here's the thing about the playoffs: It doesn't matter how well you played in November or December. All that matters is how well you play for seven games in late May.

And by that standard, this is a far trickier equation. L.A. accumulated much of its 11-game advantage over the Nuggets early in the season, in games that were played half a year ago. L.A. was six games up on the Nuggets by the end of December and 10 up by Feb. 23.

Since then, the Lakers' record is 27-11 while the Nuggets' is 25-9. Dead even, in other words, in nearly a half season's worth of games. The later you go, the more things tilt Denver's way. Use March 10 as the cutoff, for instance, and the Nuggets are 22-5 against L.A.'s 23-8. And in the playoffs, the Nuggets have lost only twice while the Lakers have been beaten four times.

Of course, longtime readers of my work will note that I'm a bigger proponent of scoring margin than win-loss record. So let's go back to something I introduced a week ago -- my playoff rating for each remaining team. The rating looks at each team's success since the All-Star break and adjusts for opponent strength and home-court advantage in the postseason.

The last time I did this exercise, the Nuggets slightly outgraded the Lakers, at plus-7.50 to plus-7.17. Now, thanks mostly to a 40-point win over Houston in Game 5 of the conference semifinals, the Lakers have the upper hand, at plus-7.97 to Denver's plus-7.61.

Of course, each team can make a compelling case for why it should rate higher than it did in that formulation. For instance, I used the All-Star break as my cutoff point; had I used mid-March instead, the Nuggets' rating would be a ridiculous plus-12.44.

Yes, they've been that good during the past two months. As I pointed out in this article, Denver closed at 14-2 in its last 16 meaningful regular-season games, then went 8-2 in the first two rounds of the playoffs. That's a 24-4 record since March 11; even if you want to include the meaningless season-ending rout against Portland, it's 24-5.

Of course, L.A. has a big item pointing in its direction, too, a 7-foot, 275-pound item named Andrew Bynum. The Lakers' win-loss record with and without him is about the same, but that's misleading, so look at the scoring margin instead. Through the end of January, the Lakers won by an average of 8.6 points per game; from that point 'til the end of the regular season, the margin was just 6.8.

In the playoffs, L.A. hasn't looked as sharp, either, but when the Lakers have been at their best, Bynum has produced. The big man had a pair of 14-point games in the Lakers' wins in Games 5 and 7 of the Houston series, and he needed just 13 shots to produce 28 points. On the other hand, he was scoreless in the Lakers' humbling defeats in Games 4 and 6, needing a mere 31 minutes to accumulate six fouls.

L.A. won't have the size advantage over Denver that it had during the final four games against the Rockets, of course, but in a conference finals loaded with wild cards, Bynum still shapes up as the biggest. When he was a game-changing force during the first half of the season, L.A. was every bit as good as Cleveland and the then-torrid Celtics. When he went out, the Lakers remained good enough to rack up a bunch of victories but not on the same level.

Against a streaking Denver team, the Lakers need that early-season Bynum every night. He can take advantage of Denver's lack of muscle up front and draw fouls to expose the Nuggets' thin frontcourt rotation. He can form an imposing back line of the defense and thwart the likes of Carmelo Anthony and Nene at the rim. But to do that, he has to be the active Bynum from Games 5 and 7, not the unproductive foul magnet he's been in the other 10 playoff games.

In the final analysis, Bynum is the only way the Lakers are better than the Nuggets right now, and those two words are what matters. Put each of these teams through another 82-game season, and I have little doubt that L.A. would win more contests. The Lakers are deeper, and their players have superior long-term track records.

But this thing isn't a best-of-82, it's a best-of-seven. And coming into these seven games, the Nuggets are at their absolute peak: Everybody is healthy, Anthony is playing the best basketball of his career and the players are well rested from successive five-game series in the first two rounds.

The Nuggets have been so good, in fact, that they've won 18 of their past 27 games by double figures. Even if they had spotted their opponents 9.5 points per game, they nearly would have matched L.A.'s record during that span (20-7).

I am picking Denver to win in six games, but it's a prediction I make without great confidence. The Bynum factor, when coupled with Denver's vulnerability to any injury that may crop up, makes the Nuggets a precarious choice even with their late-season flourish.

But when I look in the mirror and ask, "Who's better, right now, on May 18?" the answer comes back "Denver."

I think.

[iggypop123]

plus minus and all this trash. watch the games you geek.

[duncan228]

WCF Preview: Nuggets vs. Lakers (http://www.pickaxeandroll.com/2009/5/17/878242/wcf-preview-nuggets-vs-lakers?ref=yahoo)

[duncan228]

Ball Don't Lie.

Five questions for the Western Conference finalists (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/Five-questions-for-the-Western-Conference-finali;_ylt=AvEow1_qTDh03FEOsuQWb2.8vLYF?urn=nba,1 64093)
By Kelly Dwyer

Five pertinent questions for either side to mull over as the Western Conference finals fast approach ...

1. Can Denver keep the Lakers off the free-throw line?

Lakers coach Phil Jackson has had success, going back decades, in using Denver head man George Karl's sometimes overeager defensive philosophy against itself. In four games against the Nuggets this season, the Lakers have gotten to the line an astounding 145 times, a number brought down only by a November 21st Laker win that saw the Lakers go up 20 points by halftime.

If the Nuggets can stay on their feet, Shane Battier-style (Kobe Bryant had 39 attempts in the season series), things could turn around.

2. Will Carmelo Anthony keep up his hot play?

Anthony struggled throughout the regular season, but he saved some of his worst play for the four games against the Lakers, managing just 14.5 points on 32.8 shooting. In these playoffs, he's averaging 27 points on 48 percent shooting. If Anthony falls off those postseason averages, even slightly, against the Lakers, the Nuggets are in trouble.

3. Which Lamar Odom will show up?

We've been wondering this for only a decade, now, so it's not as if the next few weeks will see LO turn a corner. Odom averaged 10.5 points on 37.5 percent shooting in the regular season against Denver, with nine rebounds and two assists. That's about where he's at in the playoffs (11.3, 8.2, 2.6 in about the same amount of minutes ... 30), but Lamar is shooting 49 percent. Fewer long LO misses mean fewer breakaways for the Nuggets.

4. Have we seen the real Denver Nuggets play Los Angeles?

The only time the current Denver starting five suited up for a game against the Lakers this season, they lost 104-90 in a game back on November 21st. Since then, injuries have kept the rotation on its heels, necessitating two starts for Johan Petro, a Nugget who isn't even averaging three minutes per game during the playoffs. And while Denver's lone win came while the Lakers played without Andrew Bynum, it's safe to say that the Nuggets from last November hardly resemble the Nuggets we've seen over the last month.

5. Does Dahntay Jones have a chance?

They're both noted for being defensive stoppers, working with a Duke pedigree, who voted for Barack Obama, but that's about where the similarities between Denver off guard Dahntay Jones and Shane Battier end. Admittedly, there are quite a few similarities, there, but you see what I'm getting at. Jones uses athleticism and hops to counter his foes, and that could play right into Kobe's hands. Then again, if Kobe makes it all about himself, the Lakers don't stand a chance.

It should be noted that Denver's best game against Los Angeles saw J.R. Smith hound Kobe Bryant in the fourth quarter, and a 10-of-31 night (Jones helped, no doubt) overall.

[duncan228]

Lakers vs. Nuggets series preview (http://www.mysanantonio.com/sports/spurs/Lakers_vs_Nuggets_series_preview.html)
Mike Monroe - Express-News

Season series: Lakers won 3-1

Key matchup: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin. Kobe Bryant will dominate the big guard matchup and Carmelo Anthony will dominate the small forward matchup. That means the series will turn on the power forward matchup between Gasol and the combination of Martin and Chris Andersen. Martin discouraged Dirk Nowitzki from bringing his game inside with a hard foul in Game 1. Expect something similar the first time Gasol tries to get to the rim against Martin. This will be Gasol's chance to prove he's not soft.

Lakers can win if: They understand the level of intensity and focus required of each player in every game of a conference finals. That their effort was so uneven against the short-handed Rockets should frighten them even more than the Birdman's wacky hairdo. How they respond after victories will tell more than how they respond after losses.

Nuggets can win if: Chauncey Billups is Mr. Big Shot in Game 1. If the Nuggets steal the series opener at Staples Center, it will be because Billups gets hot from long distance. If that happens, it is going to change the defensive dynamic of the entire series, not to mention its emotions. Denver has to lock down the interior, but the Nuggets are going to need lots of 3-pointers, too.

Prediction: Lakers in 7.

[ElNono]

Key matchup: Pau Gasol vs. Kenyon Martin.

I don't think KMart is going to be checking Gasol. I think both Nene and Anderson will. I think Karl will play KMart on Odom and also on Kobe for stretches (Somehow piggy thinks KMart is the best defender he has).

[duncan228]

Ball Don't Lie.

NBA WCF Preview: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/NBA-WCF-Preview-Los-Angeles-Lakers-vs-Denver-N;_ylt=AvEow1_qTDh03FEOsuQWb2.8vLYF?urn=nba,164348 )
By J.E. Skeets

You've heard my prediction — Lakers in 6 — and KD reads his tea leaves below, but, like usual, we called in some of the NBA blogosphere's finest to help set up the Western Conference finals. On the mic: Josh from Silver Screen and Roll and Nate Timmons from Pickaxe And Roll breakdown the LA-Denver series.

Silver Screen and Roll (http://www.silverscreenandroll.com/): A month ago, the basketball surely saw a potential series between the Lakers and Nuggets very differently. Since then, the Nuggets have been on a tear, playing fantastic basketball and dispatching their opponents with relative ease. The Lakers, on the other hand, have underwhelmed. After a lackluster performance against Utah and not one, but two blowouts at the hands of a dramatically understaffed Rockets squad, the alarm bells are going off in Lakerland. Time to hit the panic button: this Lakers squad simply doesn't have the mentality it takes to beat Denver (let’s not even talk about Cleveland!).

Right?

Personally, I'm not convinced. Sure, there are plenty of negatives that you could look at in the first two rounds — and you know them so well by now, I’m not going to bore you with them. But I'd like to point out the flip side of the coin.

The Lakers have gotten better.

Seems counterintuitive, right? Let me put it this way: If the Lakers had played against the Rockets the same way that they played against the Jazz, even most of the wins (over Utah) would be losses (to Houston). The defense has improved dramatically; it wasn't always 100%, but it was mostly quite good, and whenever L.A. felt the pressure they cranked it up to an unbelievable level. They've also stopped giving up big leads in the fourth quarter. So yes, there’s room for improvement — but don’t overlook the fact that they have already improved significantly.

I’ve written that the Lakers wouldn’t snap out of a trend based on such deeply entrenched bad habits. It’s a re-learning process, for the Lakers to understand that it will take not just talent, but also effort, to win in the playoffs. I stand by that. They’re not going to just “snap out of it” — I’m just happy to see that they actually are learning, and improving.

I’m also not convinced that Denver matches up well with L.A. They don’t do the things that cause the Lakers to struggle — in fact, their game tends to feed into what the Lakers want to do. And it all starts with running.

Denver loves to run. The thing is, so do the Lakers. And it’s not just because they score easy baskets or tire the other team out — those are the typical, cliché reasons for being a fast-paced team. For the Lakers, it’s more than that. Against the Lakers, your best shot is to take Kobe’s teammates out of the game and make him beat you by himself. And believe me, he can definitely do that — but at least there’s a chance that his shots don’t go down. But if the entire team gets involved and gets rolling, there’s just no stopping the Lakers.

The Lakers are also much easier to beat if you can convince them not to play defense. And here’s the thing about this squad: Unlike most, it is their offense that creates their defense. When things are clicking offensively, the entire team gets involved and active on defense.

When teams let the Lakers run, it creates easy opportunities across the board, gets all players involved, and generally increases the energy and involvement of the entire team. Most importantly, it fuels them defensively — and when the role players are contributing and the team is playing defense, this team is virtually impossible to beat.

Of course, the matchups seem to favor Los Angeles, as well. Most glaringly, Houston had what no one in the league has: a premier perimeter defender that can make life hard for Kobe. Denver doesn’t even have one. Meanwhile, Carmelo Anthony has struggled against the Lakers, and while it’s not something I’m willing to bet my life savings on, it shouldn’t be overlooked. Nene, also, has struggled against Bynum, and Pau Gasol has a clear length advantage over Kenyon Martin. Really, the only matchup I see strongly favoring the Nuggets is the point guard, and I’m intrigued to see how Shannon Brown does defending him — he’s got the size, strength, and speed, and he’s a very good defender. But will Phil Jackosn play him?

In the end, I expect hard-fought games and at least one brain fart from the Lakers, but I do expect them to be better in this round than they were in the last, and I just don’t see the Nuggets as matching up as well with the Lakers as Houston did.

Lakers in 7.

*****

Pickaxe and Roll (http://www.pickaxeandroll.com/): I'm about to bring up a painful memory: In the 2008 playoffs, the Lakers swept the Nuggets in the first round. The Nuggets were the young little weakling, getting smacked around by the stereotypical neighborhood man-child. The ass kicking they were handed by the Lakers was embarrassing and worse yet ... completely expected.

For the Lakers, not a lot has changed this year. Their man-child status has been enhanced with a healthy Trevor Ariza and they still have their patented wedgie or go-to guys with Kobe, Pau, Bynum, and Odom.

For the Nuggets, they are no longer the pre-pubescent boy of the 2008 playoffs. Things started when the boy got his expected influx of testosterone (Kenyon Martin’s vow to get serious on the defensive end.) Muscle is easy to build with testosterone and Denver added muscle with Dahntay Jones and Chris "Birdman" Andersen. In order to grow mentally you must mature and Melo, J.R. Smith, and Nene have all come into their own this season. With any maturation process it’s best to have somebody show you the ropes.

The Nuggets had been following Allen Iverson’s lead and we know where that got them. So, Denver made the necessary change. They shipped A.I. off and brought in the ultimate leader … a man who will be playing in his seventh consecutive conference finals, a man who wears the number 7 to honor John Elway and be the Nuggets’ Mr. Big Shot: Chauncey Billups.

As these two teams get set to square off once again, the fight is no longer one-sided. The Nuggets are "all grows up" as Trent aka Vince Vaughn would say. On offense, Denver can score in the paint, run the fastbreak, get to the foul line, hit the three-ball, and hit clutch shots with either Melo or Billups. On defense, the Nuggets play physical, block shots, create turnovers, and protect the boards. Denver is a complete team.

The major challenges for the Nuggets: not having home-court for the first time this post-season, facing a team with a lot of length, and facing an attacking/low-post style team. Oh, and did I mention that Kobe Bryant ("MVP ... MVP") averaged 31 points per game against the Nuggets this season?

Denver did a great job turning the Hornets and Mavericks into one-man shows of Chris Paul vs. the Nuggets and Dirk Nowitzki vs. the Nuggets, but the Lakers are loaded with offensive options and will not be one-dimensional. This series will be a major test for both teams and a great challenge for the boys in Powder Blue.

This Nuggets team has been up for challenges all season. To quote the famous English poet William Blake, "Great things are done when men and mountains meet." And the Lakers are that symbolic and literal mountain.

Prediction time! This might be the best time to tell you all that I once lost consciousness when I was kicked in the head by a horse as a kid in Conifer, Colorado.

Nuggets in 6.

*****

Kelly Dwyer: If there is a bit of bias that I will admit to having, it’s the way that I tend to trust Phil Jackson. I’ve seen him get the job done too many times to bet against the guy.

(But what about the Spurs, in 2003? The Pistons, in 2004? The Celtics, last year? Didn’t he play Chris Mihm in one of those Finals games last year? Didn’t he have Shaq, Kobe, Payton, and Karl Malone in 2004? Wasn’t Manu Ginobili a rookie, with Shaq and Kobe in their primes in 2003?)

Yes, to all of them. And in each instance, his Lakers had their asses spanked by a much better team. The 2003 Lakers had no depth. Payton was shot, Shaq was out of shape, Malone was injured, and Kobe was pissed in 2004. The Celtics were a better basketball team last year. In a way, I’m surprised it went six.

And even with Andrew Bynum floating along, or Kobe acting a little too stubborn against the Rockets (and, it should be noted, "a little too stubborn" means "27.4 points on 45 percent shooting, five boards, four assists, two steals and a block" in this instance), and Derek Fisher unable to guard Derek Smalls, I still think the Lakers are the better team.

I don’t want to hear about how much the Nuggets bigs will walk all over these guys, and (this is something I’ve heard in more than one place) how much they "love contact." They don’t. Nene wants to go around you. Kenyon Martin and Chris Andersen want to dunk over you. They don’t want to back you down, and go up with the hook. And they don’t want the rebound unless they can jump over and around you to get it.

I’m not entirely convinced Martin wants any rebounds to begin with, as he averaged four per game in 33 minutes of high-possession basketball against the Mavericks. The Nugget bigs are great. They’re strong. They chirp a lot. They’ll also have to guard Bynum, Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and deal with a Laker offense that’s a bit more complicated than Dallas’ orthodox attack.

The Nuggets, though, are too formidable to be dismissed as a tier below the Lakers. They deserve to be there. They’ve played as well as anyone, if not better than anyone, over the last few months. This is a championship-level team ... right now.

I just think with matchups working as they do, and Los Angeles’ offense (when run properly; that will decide the series) being what it is, the Lakers should have the advantage. Barely.

Lakers in 7.