duncan228
05-20-2009, 12:46 PM
How Can We Still Tell Kids To Stay In School? (http://thebulletin.us/articles/2009/05/20/sports/doc4a13e82e9a5bb005400147.txt)
By Drew Silverman
This column originally began as a stern message to underclassmen, lecturing them on why they were foolish to declare for the NBA draft after only one or two seasons of college basketball.
I was going to chide players like Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair and Memphis’ Tyreke Evans. I was going to suggest that UCLA’s Jrue Holliday and Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn are talented but still not ready for the NBA. I was even going to target likely top five picks such as Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin and Arizona State’s James Harden with the intention of noting how another year or two in college could only help their chances of succeeding at the next level.
That’s what I was going to do. That is, until I saw the light.
In my research for the column, I began looking at the four teams remaining in the NBA playoffs — the Lakers, Nuggets, Cavaliers and Magic. All four have a legitimate chance to win the championship and none of the teams appear to be a flash in the pan. In other words, these four teams will likely be among the championship contenders for the foreseeable future.
The first thing that struck me in looking at the four teams is that each has a legitimate superstar. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony all ranked in the top 10 in scoring this season, while Dwight Howard led the league in rebounding and blocked shots.
However, the other common theme here is the lack of college experience. Bryant jumped right to the NBA from Lower Merion High School in 1996, while James (2003) and Howard (2004) also chose to bypass college. Anthony went to Syracuse for one year before declaring for the draft.
That’s a total of one college season for the four biggest stars left in the playoffs. Quite frankly, it’s a disturbing trend to those who preach the importance of staying in school. Even scarier, though, is the fact that the trend doesn’t end there.
Take a look at the second-best players on the four teams. Cleveland’s Mo Williams and Detroit’s Chauncey Billups went to school for two years each. Orlando’s Rashard Lewis passed on college completely, while the Lakers’ Pau Gasol came over straight from Spain.
In case you’re keeping score at home, that’s eight players who played a total of five years of college basketball. But we’re not done yet.
Moving on to the third-best players on each team, Hedo Turkoglu of the Magic and Zydrunas Ilgauskas of the Cavaliers are European transplants. The Nuggets’ J.R. Smith skipped college entirely, as did the Lakers’ Andrew Bynum, who became the youngest player to ever take the court in an NBA game.
Get your scorebooks out. That’s 12 players — more or less, the 12 best players left in the playoffs — with a total of five years of college basketball experience. And not only did none of them stay in school four years, but none of them even stayed three years.
To find someone who even played a junior season in college, you have to move to the fourth-best players on each team, where the Cavaliers’ Delonte West comes into the picture. The other players in this tier — the Lakers’ Lamar Odom (two years), the Magic’s Rafer Alston (one) and the Nuggets’ Nene (zero) combined to play as many years of Division I basketball as West, though Alston played two seasons in junior college.
In case you’re wondering how deep into these rosters you have to go to find a four-year college player, the answer is one more level. A glance at the fifth-best players on the remaining teams offers Denver’s Kenyon Martin and Los Angeles’ Derek Fisher, both of whom played four years of college ball.
But realistically, by the time you get to Martin and Fisher, the point has already been made. From the players’ perspective, you don’t need play four years of college basketball to succeed in the NBA. From the teams’ perspective, you don’t need to build your roster around experienced college players — foreign prospects and college underclassmen work quite nicely.
Of course, this mantra does not apply to all underclassmen. Players such as Wofford’s Junior Salters and Tennessee Tech’s Darnell Lindsay have no business entering the draft, but there are always a handful of these ridiculous early entries and that’ll likely never change.
And truthfully, it’s hard to blame these kids. Not Salters and Lindsay, of course, but definitely Blair and Flynn. They’re sitting on their couches watching the NBA playoffs, just like you and I. Sure, they see Kobe, Carmelo and LeBron, but they also see Lewis, Williams and Alston, all of whom were second-round picks that made it big in the league. They see these college defectors — all of these college defectors — and wonder, “Why not me?”
But don’t think for a second that this year’s playoffs is a fluke.
The 2008 NBA champion Celtics were a team that started five players who spent a total of eight years in college. Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins skipped it entirely, while Rajon Rondo (two years), Paul Pierce (three) and Ray Allen (three) also left school early. Boston’s role players included James Posey, Glen Davis, Leon Powe and Tony Allen, none of whom played four years of D-1 basketball.
In fact, over the last eight seasons, the 16 representatives in the NBA finals have been led by a four-year college player exactly four times — and all four of those were the Spurs’ Tim Duncan. If you want to look at NBA finals MVPs, 16 of the last 19 either left college early or jumped right to the NBA from high school. Duncan accounts for the only three exceptions.
In addition, of the 24 players who participated in this year’s All-Star game, the only four-year college players were Duncan, David West and Brandon Roy for the West and Danny Granger for the East. That’s it. Not exactly a ringing endorsement to stay in school.
If it wasn’t clear five or 10 years ago, it’s painfully obvious now — underclassmen are the way to go.
Of course, there are two sides to the coin. This analysis doesn’t account for players like Kwame Brown, Shaun Livingston or Dajuan Wagner who entered the draft early and turned out to be big-time busts. For every LeBron and Kobe, there are probably two or three players like Brown and Wagner.
So, what does all this mean for the Blake Griffins and James Hardens of the world? I hate to say it, but they should go pro while they have the opportunity. The league is being overrun by players who can’t even legally rent a car, and it doesn’t look like the trend is going to change anytime soon.
If they’re good enough to play in the NBA as 20-year-olds, then there’s no reason Griffin and Harden shouldn’t go pro. The league has changed and my mindset has too. I suggest you see the light, as well. Be careful, though. It might be brighter than you think.
By Drew Silverman
This column originally began as a stern message to underclassmen, lecturing them on why they were foolish to declare for the NBA draft after only one or two seasons of college basketball.
I was going to chide players like Pittsburgh’s DeJuan Blair and Memphis’ Tyreke Evans. I was going to suggest that UCLA’s Jrue Holliday and Syracuse’s Jonny Flynn are talented but still not ready for the NBA. I was even going to target likely top five picks such as Oklahoma’s Blake Griffin and Arizona State’s James Harden with the intention of noting how another year or two in college could only help their chances of succeeding at the next level.
That’s what I was going to do. That is, until I saw the light.
In my research for the column, I began looking at the four teams remaining in the NBA playoffs — the Lakers, Nuggets, Cavaliers and Magic. All four have a legitimate chance to win the championship and none of the teams appear to be a flash in the pan. In other words, these four teams will likely be among the championship contenders for the foreseeable future.
The first thing that struck me in looking at the four teams is that each has a legitimate superstar. Kobe Bryant, LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony all ranked in the top 10 in scoring this season, while Dwight Howard led the league in rebounding and blocked shots.
However, the other common theme here is the lack of college experience. Bryant jumped right to the NBA from Lower Merion High School in 1996, while James (2003) and Howard (2004) also chose to bypass college. Anthony went to Syracuse for one year before declaring for the draft.
That’s a total of one college season for the four biggest stars left in the playoffs. Quite frankly, it’s a disturbing trend to those who preach the importance of staying in school. Even scarier, though, is the fact that the trend doesn’t end there.
Take a look at the second-best players on the four teams. Cleveland’s Mo Williams and Detroit’s Chauncey Billups went to school for two years each. Orlando’s Rashard Lewis passed on college completely, while the Lakers’ Pau Gasol came over straight from Spain.
In case you’re keeping score at home, that’s eight players who played a total of five years of college basketball. But we’re not done yet.
Moving on to the third-best players on each team, Hedo Turkoglu of the Magic and Zydrunas Ilgauskas of the Cavaliers are European transplants. The Nuggets’ J.R. Smith skipped college entirely, as did the Lakers’ Andrew Bynum, who became the youngest player to ever take the court in an NBA game.
Get your scorebooks out. That’s 12 players — more or less, the 12 best players left in the playoffs — with a total of five years of college basketball experience. And not only did none of them stay in school four years, but none of them even stayed three years.
To find someone who even played a junior season in college, you have to move to the fourth-best players on each team, where the Cavaliers’ Delonte West comes into the picture. The other players in this tier — the Lakers’ Lamar Odom (two years), the Magic’s Rafer Alston (one) and the Nuggets’ Nene (zero) combined to play as many years of Division I basketball as West, though Alston played two seasons in junior college.
In case you’re wondering how deep into these rosters you have to go to find a four-year college player, the answer is one more level. A glance at the fifth-best players on the remaining teams offers Denver’s Kenyon Martin and Los Angeles’ Derek Fisher, both of whom played four years of college ball.
But realistically, by the time you get to Martin and Fisher, the point has already been made. From the players’ perspective, you don’t need play four years of college basketball to succeed in the NBA. From the teams’ perspective, you don’t need to build your roster around experienced college players — foreign prospects and college underclassmen work quite nicely.
Of course, this mantra does not apply to all underclassmen. Players such as Wofford’s Junior Salters and Tennessee Tech’s Darnell Lindsay have no business entering the draft, but there are always a handful of these ridiculous early entries and that’ll likely never change.
And truthfully, it’s hard to blame these kids. Not Salters and Lindsay, of course, but definitely Blair and Flynn. They’re sitting on their couches watching the NBA playoffs, just like you and I. Sure, they see Kobe, Carmelo and LeBron, but they also see Lewis, Williams and Alston, all of whom were second-round picks that made it big in the league. They see these college defectors — all of these college defectors — and wonder, “Why not me?”
But don’t think for a second that this year’s playoffs is a fluke.
The 2008 NBA champion Celtics were a team that started five players who spent a total of eight years in college. Kevin Garnett and Kendrick Perkins skipped it entirely, while Rajon Rondo (two years), Paul Pierce (three) and Ray Allen (three) also left school early. Boston’s role players included James Posey, Glen Davis, Leon Powe and Tony Allen, none of whom played four years of D-1 basketball.
In fact, over the last eight seasons, the 16 representatives in the NBA finals have been led by a four-year college player exactly four times — and all four of those were the Spurs’ Tim Duncan. If you want to look at NBA finals MVPs, 16 of the last 19 either left college early or jumped right to the NBA from high school. Duncan accounts for the only three exceptions.
In addition, of the 24 players who participated in this year’s All-Star game, the only four-year college players were Duncan, David West and Brandon Roy for the West and Danny Granger for the East. That’s it. Not exactly a ringing endorsement to stay in school.
If it wasn’t clear five or 10 years ago, it’s painfully obvious now — underclassmen are the way to go.
Of course, there are two sides to the coin. This analysis doesn’t account for players like Kwame Brown, Shaun Livingston or Dajuan Wagner who entered the draft early and turned out to be big-time busts. For every LeBron and Kobe, there are probably two or three players like Brown and Wagner.
So, what does all this mean for the Blake Griffins and James Hardens of the world? I hate to say it, but they should go pro while they have the opportunity. The league is being overrun by players who can’t even legally rent a car, and it doesn’t look like the trend is going to change anytime soon.
If they’re good enough to play in the NBA as 20-year-olds, then there’s no reason Griffin and Harden shouldn’t go pro. The league has changed and my mindset has too. I suggest you see the light, as well. Be careful, though. It might be brighter than you think.