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View Full Version : Hollinger Eats Crow Part 1: I was Wrong



Allanon
05-21-2009, 01:08 PM
Wow, John Hollinger actually admitting he might have been wrong. I'll post Part 2 of his being wrong once the Lakers win the Championship. :lol

I WUZ WRONG ABOUT THE MAGICK (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/2009/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-090521)
By John Hollinger

I let you down. Sorry about that.

Of all people, I should have seen through the coronation blitz and realized that Orlando had a great shot to win this series. Unfortunately, I picked Cleveland to emerge in five games.

As I was writing Tuesday's story on how the Magic had carved up the Cavs during the regular season, I immediately began getting a sinking feeling that perhaps I had screwed up. The Magic's point differential during the second half of the season wasn't anywhere close to Cleveland's, but as we've learned countless times, the playoffs are all about matchups. That's why J.J. Redick went from being a 40-minute starter against Boston to DNP-CD against the Cavs, and it's why the Magic went from barely surviving against a weakened Celtics team in Round 2 to having the upper hand on a trip to the Finals.

Sorry to be late to the party, but it's becoming increasingly obvious that Orlando matches up great against Cleveland. After Wednesday night's Game 1 comeback win, the Magic have won three of the four meetings between the two teams this season. The Magic's two regular-season wins were blowouts, while Cleveland's one victory was a white-knuckler at home.

What's scary about Wednesday night's game is that it had all the marks of the three regular-season meetings. Once again, Orlando completely controlled the defensive glass, as Cleveland finished with just eight offensive boards from 36 missed shots. Again, the Cavs not named LeBron couldn't get to the line, as the supporting cast earned only seven free throws, and one of them was a technical. Again, Mickael Pietrus played a ton of minutes (30) off the bench as the primary LeBron James defender. And again, Orlando's much-maligned point guard tandem was unusually productive (16 points and 11 assists combined, against just one turnover).

The Magic mess up the Cavs' defense because they don't have a great matchup against Dwight Howard, so Cleveland must either let Howard go nuts in the paint or double-team him and let a barrage of 3-pointers loose from outside. And the Magic mess up the Cavs' offense because they turn the four players not named LeBron into standstill jump shooters who produce no other contribution.

Apparently, Cavs coach Mike Brown knew this, because Wednesday night he tried changing the matchups to produce a new result. It worked for a half. He put LeBron on Rafer Alston, stuck Delonte West on Hedo Turkoglu and had Mo Williams check Courtney Lee.

Brown also changed his defensive approach from inside-out to outside-in. In the three regular-season games, Cleveland made sure it contained Howard and did the best it could with the 3-point shooters; in response, the Magic hoisted nearly 29 3-point attempts a game and buried the Cavs under a mountain of 3s.

Wednesday night, the Cavs decided to contain the 3-point shooters and do the best they could with Howard, who went off for 30 points on 14-of-20 shooting. Orlando tried "only" 20 3-pointers but made nine, including the winner by Rashard Lewis.

Thus, the Cavs must go back to the drawing board, and it's time for them to unearth the one tactic we didn't see Wednesday night: going small.

This may be the only way for the Cavs to survive. It's easier to double Howard with quicker, faster players, while James can slide up to the 4 and lock up Lewis. The Cavs haven't used that plan much this postseason, but it may be the only way they can guard the Magic in this series. Such a lineup might require them to play Sasha Pavlovic, because Wally Szczerbiak can't guard Pietrus, and that's a terrifying thought. But anything would be preferable to the way they've been chewed up during the teams' first four meetings.

I know the Cavs like the idea of allowing James to roam by having him defend Alston, but he's the only player on the team qualified to check Lewis. I'm a huge fan of Anderson Varejao's defensive expertise, but this is a bad matchup for him. He isn't used to defending the 3-point line and had trouble getting back to Lewis on the pick-and-pop plays on which Orlando devoured the Cavs during the second half. And if Varejao guards Howard instead, he may be able to flop himself into a few offensive-foul calls -- which is vital, because putting Howard on the bench is about the only way Cleveland can stop him.

On the other end, having LeBron post up against Pietrus seemed really effective. In fact, pretty much anything that involved having LeBron take a shot seemed to work really nicely. James was majestic with 49 points on 20-of-30 shooting, and in truth, the Cavs played well enough offensively to win on most nights. A 110.4 offensive efficiency mark against the league's top defense ain't too shabby.

What has to concern Cleveland, however, is that this game looked like an outlier. James was making every jumper he threw up for three quarters, and Williams hit a 70-footer before the half. The former can't be counted on, and the latter won't happen again. West received some wide-open looks on 3-pointers, but otherwise, clear openings for his teammates were few and far between, the free-throw totals being the canary in the coal mine in that department.

Again, going small might be helpful there. The Cavs can give James much more space by putting three shooters on the floor around him and playing either Varejao or Zydrunas Ilgauskas at center, and that would put pressure on Lewis to check a smaller, faster player. Having another ball handler around also might leave James fresher for the stretch run -- I can't remember ever seeing him run out of gas the way he did Wednesday night.

Regardless, Game 1 provided an important lesson: We should pay attention to regular-season matchups, particularly when they're as one-sided as they were between these two teams. Perhaps the Cavs will breeze to four straight wins and we'll all forget Wednesday night ever happened, but it sure doesn't look that way.

Somehow, Cleveland must shake up the matchup mix and find something that works in its favor. Otherwise, the league's dream matchup of Kobe versus LeBron will have to wait for some other year.

Spursfan092120
05-21-2009, 01:11 PM
LEONARD needs to cosign this. He bet all his ST cash on the Cavs in 5...hmm...

duncan228
05-21-2009, 01:14 PM
Wow. Did hell freeze over too? Are pigs flying around everywhere?

monosylab1k
05-21-2009, 01:16 PM
Still no word on his "Jazz are the best team in the NBA" and "Mavs are a lottery team" proclamations?

Thunder Dan
05-21-2009, 01:16 PM
It was just one game. Mo and Delonte had off nights and Rashard Lewis was out of his mind and the Cavs lost by a point

jacobdrj
05-21-2009, 01:17 PM
It. Was. One. Game.

manufan10
05-21-2009, 01:17 PM
Wow. Did hell freeze over too? Are pigs flying around everywhere?

Ever hear of swine flu?

TJastal
05-21-2009, 01:22 PM
Gotta love it when a renowned sportswriter admits he is an idiot.

:lol

Indazone
05-21-2009, 02:03 PM
The Magic are built like the Rockets. Cleveland can't go up against a team with a strong inside presence. They get owned.

2Cleva
05-21-2009, 02:07 PM
So Hollinger's excel sheets led him wrong. Who knew?

2Cleva
05-21-2009, 02:08 PM
The Magic are built like the Rockets. Cleveland can't go up against a team with a strong inside presence. They get owned.

Not just the inside presence, Cleveland's D is designed to give up the 3 - which is the shot Orlando wants to take. Bad combination.

TheProfessor
05-21-2009, 02:21 PM
And now that Hollinger has reneg'ed, the Cavs will sweep the next four, leading to his, "Hey, I was right!" column.

LnGrrrR
05-21-2009, 02:23 PM
Hollinger has said some really stupid stuff lately. Nice to hear him admit it.

TheMACHINE
05-21-2009, 02:47 PM
Cry Havoc = John Hollinger?

lefty
05-21-2009, 02:48 PM
Hollinger is a giant attention whore.

RedsLakers24
05-21-2009, 02:52 PM
I Say Cavs in 6, Everyone was cold except Lebron From that long Layoff

DrHouse
05-21-2009, 03:21 PM
:lmao at all the idiot Spur fans who thought the Cavs would steam roll everyone based on how they were playing.

It's all about the matchups you dumb fucks.

Spursfan092120
05-21-2009, 04:02 PM
:lmao at all the idiot Spur fans who thought the Cavs would steam roll everyone based on how they were playing.

It's all about the matchups you dumb fucks.
lol...you are an idiot, House...a lot of Spur fans, including myself, picked the Magic...we know it's about matchups...

iggypop123
05-21-2009, 07:19 PM
Wow. Did hell freeze over too? Are pigs flying around everywhere?

It's just a little airborne, it's still good, it's still good!

Cry Havoc
05-21-2009, 09:33 PM
Wow, so a team that hasn't played in 8 days lost by a SINGLE point after their entire bench lays a turd in the opener?

Hmm. Sounds like I said that could happen! I openly stated the Cavs might lose a game, and said it would be games 1 or 3 that they drop.

I still like the Cavs in 5. They played the worst game possible last night especially in the second half, after having something like 16 days off in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and lost by a point. It happens. It's the old rest vs. rust hypothesis. If they would have won by a point you would hear people talking about how the Magic are just no match for LeBron.

So spare me. A loss is a loss, but it's one point. The Magic didn't dominate last night, they hit all their 3s and the Cavs missed theirs. That's the difference in the game.

R4R
05-21-2009, 10:01 PM
And if Varejao guards Howard instead, he may be able to flop himself into a few offensive-foul calls -- which is vital, because putting Howard on the bench is about the only way Cleveland can stop him.


:lmao Apparently flopping has become an important centerpiece in Varejao's repetoir.