Simmons: NBA Players' Winning Percentage

[Fermixalot]

Simmon's Mailbag (http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/090522/part2&sportCat=nba)

Q: The NBA should start keeping track of players' winning percentages. Wouldn't this give us at least a decent idea for who are the biggest "winners" in not just basketball but in all sports?
-- Stephen, Baltimore

SG: Very cool idea. I brought out the heavy hitters for this one (Steve Hirdt and the Elias Sports Bureau) and asked them to check the following 14 guys. Here's what they found.

ALL-TIME PLAYER WINNING PERCENTAGES
PLAYER Reg. season PLAYOFFS
Larry Bird .736 .604
Manu Ginobili .724 .654
Sam Jones .718 .649
Bill Russell .717 .648
Tony Parker .716 .615
Tim Duncan .712 .631
Scottie Pippen .688 .654
Kareem .688 .650
Magic Johnson .674 .740
Shaq .672 .601
Robert Horry .671 .635
Michael Jordan .659 .665
Bob Cousy .655 .578
Jerry West .638 .569

Some follow-up thoughts: First, the Legend! Second, the playoff numbers for the post-merger guys are skewed because there were extra rounds (and easier matchups). Russell's .649 playoff percentage would be like a .725 under today's setup. Third, nobody did more with less than Duncan, and his performance from 2001-03 becomes more remarkable with time; he won 203 games, two MVPs and an NBA title playing with role players, has-beens, castoffs and young guys who weren't quite ready. Incredible. Fourth, Robert Horry's career is going to be studied for months by John Hollinger's perplexed great-great-great-great-grandchildren in the 2100s, and ultimately they're going to throw their hands up, shake their heads and move on to a topic that actually makes sense. And fifth, the Legend!

:toast

[jag]

Manu is, and always will be a Winner.

[urunobili]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3414012#post3414012

[Fermixalot]

http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3414012#post3414012

damn, i didn't see it as a thread so I posted it. Eh, Whatever. At least its not another asinine trade Manu/Tim/Parker thread.

[urunobili]

Can someone help me to to calculate who number one is of we put as an average both Playoffs and Regular season?

[ShoogarBear]

Despite Simmons' bias, the most amazing numbers aren't Bird's but Magic's. He and Jordan are the only two players on that list whose percentages went up during the playoffs (i.e., against tougher competition).

[Fermixalot]

ShoogarBear DENIED!!!!


:lol

[ShoogarBear]

Um, you can't just add them together and divide by two. There are a lot more regular season games played than postseason.

[ShoogarBear]

Second, the playoff numbers for the post-merger guys are skewed because there were extra rounds (and easier matchups). Russell's .649 playoff percentage would be like a .725 under today's setup.

Oh, and Simmons must have gone to the John-Hollinger-watch-me-pull-this-out-of-my-ass School of Statistics. There were plenty of shitty teams that were first-round playoff fodder in the 60s.

[timvp]

Taking just the percentages from the Spurs players, it's not that surprising that Manu would be first because he has played a much higher percentage of his games with the complete Big 3. He's obviously a damn good player but he's also been in a situation where he has had multiple superstar around him since he stepped on an NBA court. And those players have been durable.

Mathematically, it's almost always going to work out that the player in the Big 3 that misses the most games in the season will have the highest winning percentage in the games they are healthy. In the above numbers, if Ginobili had missed as many games as Duncan over the years and Duncan had missed as many games as Ginobili over the years, it's safe to say the results of the winning percentages would be vastly different.

[Obstructed_View]

Despite Simmons' bias, the most amazing numbers aren't Bird's but Magic's. He and Jordan are the only two players on that list whose percentages went up during the playoffs (i.e., against tougher competition).

I noticed that too. Magic's numbers suggest that if you were going to knock him out in the playoffs, you were probably going to have to go seven games to do it.

[FromWayDowntown]

I noticed that too. Magic's numbers suggest that if you were going to knock him out in the playoffs, you were probably going to have to go seven games to do it.

Well, and you were almost certainly not going to do it deep in the playoffs. Magic's teams averaged going more than 3 rounds deep in the playoffs during his career:

1979-80 -- Won Finals (3)
1980-81 -- Lost Western Conference First Round (1)
1981-82 -- Won Finals (3)
1982-83 -- Lost Finals (3)
1983-84 -- Lost Finals (4)
1984-85 -- Won Finals (4)
1985-86 -- Lost Western Conference Finals (3)
1986-87 -- Won Finals (4)
1987-88 -- Won Finals (4)
1988-89 -- Lost Finals (4)
1989-90 -- Lost Western Conference Semifinals (2)
1990-91 -- Lost Finals (4)

[vander]

Taking just the percentages from the Spurs players, it's not that surprising that Manu would be first because he has played a much higher percentage of his games with the complete Big 3. He's obviously a damn good player but he's also been in a situation where he has had multiple superstar around him since he stepped on an NBA court. And those players have been durable.

Mathematically, it's almost always going to work out that the player in the Big 3 that misses the most games in the season will have the highest winning percentage in the games they are healthy. In the above numbers, if Ginobili had missed as many games as Duncan over the years and Duncan had missed as many games as Ginobili over the years, it's safe to say the results of the winning percentages would be vastly different.

I was going to say something to that effect, but yours is much more elegant.

also, those numbers are going to drop a lot before their careers are over

[Bukefal]

Taking just the percentages from the Spurs players, it's not that surprising that Manu would be first because he has played a much higher percentage of his games with the complete Big 3. He's obviously a damn good player but he's also been in a situation where he has had multiple superstar around him since he stepped on an NBA court. And those players have been durable.

Mathematically, it's almost always going to work out that the player in the Big 3 that misses the most games in the season will have the highest winning percentage in the games they are healthy. In the above numbers, if Ginobili had missed as many games as Duncan over the years and Duncan had missed as many games as Ginobili over the years, it's safe to say the results of the winning percentages would be vastly different.

Well said! Thats true.

[Thompson]

also, those numbers are going to drop a lot before their careers are over

NO! They're each going out a different year, and each of the big 3 will end their careers the way David did. :lobt2:

[whottt]

David Robinson got jobbed pretty hard on this one. He's definitely higher than some of the guys on this list...and I'm talking about the era before he played with Duncan, it probably goes higher with the Duncan era included. I know he had close to a 70% winning PCT, if not over in the Pre-Duncan era. Spurs could barely win a game without Drob, and never had a winning record without him, even if you give him losses from those teams in games he didn't play he still has close to a 70% PCT IMO.

I just calculated the totals of his teams without concern to if he was actually playing or not and it comes out to 66%....and that's including the 92 season when he missed the end of the season and the Spurs went like 6-18 without him.

[Phenomanul]

Laker fans have done a vanishing act considering Kobe isn't on the list...

[exstatic]

David Robinson got jobbed pretty hard on this one. He's definitely higher than some of the guys on this list...and I'm talking about the era before he played with Duncan, it probably goes higher with the Duncan era included. I know he had close to a 70% winning PCT, if not over in the Pre-Duncan era. Spurs could barely win a game without Drob, and never had a winning record without him, even if you give him losses from those teams in games he didn't play he still has close to a 70% PCT IMO.

I just calculated the totals of his teams without concern to if he was actually playing or not and it comes out to 66%....and that's including the 92 season when he missed the end of the season and the Spurs went like 6-18 without him.

If you look at his career, there are 8 seasons (with 7 seasons worth of games) pre-Duncan, and 5+ seasons worth of games with Duncan. The Duncan years brought up his win %. I doubt those games he didn't play during his solo era are going to bring it up another 4%.