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duncan228
06-03-2009, 08:06 PM
One man's opinion.

Window starting to close on Kobe (http://www.mercurynews.com/columns/ci_12513325?nclick_check=1)
By Monte Poole

IT'S NOT THE games that exhaust our basketball superstars. It's not necessarily the number of seasons or cold claws of age.

It's the mileage and the conditions under which the wheels are driven.

Kobe Bryant's wheels have seen a lot of mileage — more than 41,000 minutes, 6,668 in the postseason — and nearly all with high intensity. He has known more court time than recent NBA retirees Dikembe Mutombo and Sam Cassell. Isiah Thomas and Dominique Wilkins retired with lower mileage.

Bryant is not an "old" 30, but the upcoming years are lurking, poised to introduce unkind changes.

So now is the time to get a championship he doesn't have to share with an oversized alpha male like Shaquille O'Neal. If Kobe can lead the Lakers past Orlando in the NBA Finals beginning tonight in Los Angeles — and I believe he will — consider it testimony to his maturity and priorities.

But it has to be now, because high-mileage wheels can fly off in a heartbeat in the NBA. More than any major team sport in America, the NBA is where those with young legs can be awfully rude to elders.

The Magic is led by Dwight Howard, who has what it takes to win but at 23 might not be ready for this. He will not, however, be failed by his legs.

Eventually, though, failure greets everyone. Remember how the Showtime Lakers went out? They beat Detroit in six to win it all in 1988. Magic Johnson was 28. They came back in '89 and got swept by the emerging Pistons. Magic looked old. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was old.

The Pistons won back-to-back titles, aged noticeably and were rocked into eternal sleep in the '91 Eastern Conference finals by the raging young Bulls from Chicago, led by Michael Jordan. MJ didn't care that Isiah had just turned 30. The Bad Boys fell in four.

Yes, tread loss can be stunningly sudden. One year, you're deep in the playoffs, maybe even winning it all. The next year, you're pushed aside like cigarette butts on the sidewalk. It's alarming to watch greatness caught in the grip of fatigue, hands on knees, chests heaving, helpless to prevent the process.

The sun has set on the Tim Duncan-era San Antonio Spurs, as well as Steve Nash and the perennially contending Suns. The 2008 champion Celtics, built for the briefest of runs, got theirs just in time. Too many hard miles on the nucleus for another serious run.

Only one guard in the high-flying, post-merger era has led a team to a championship after his 30th birthday. Jordan. He was 33 when Chicago won in '96, 34 in '97 and 35 in '98.

He already had missed one full season and 80 percent of two others.

It's not the years, it's the mileage.

Jordan the Bull played 43,361 minutes, the last of which ended with a slick shove of Utah's Bryon Russell and a jumper to win Game 6 of the '98 Finals and the last of Chicago's six championships.

MJ returned but never got close to another title, never saw the playoffs again. There is some dispute in Washington as to whether he led anyone.

There is no debate in Los Angeles. Though the Lakers won't win it all without significant contributions from Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom, it's Kobe's team. Derek Fisher is old enough to lead, Andrew Bynum and Trevor Ariza young enough to produce. Kobe has the goods to do both.

Yet on several occasions during these playoffs, there were concerns about Bryant's energy level. That he has at times looked and played tired can be understood, for he went from an 82-game regular season to a 21-game postseason to the Summer Olympics to another 82-game regular season.

And now another postseason that, so far, has added 18 games and 721 minutes. This could be the longest two months of Kobe's career, and even if the Lakers win in six — as they should — it's certain to feel like the longest.

He'll feel his legs resisting, feel the turning of the digits on his internal odometer. And he'll hear footsteps, young footsteps, getting louder by the minute.

Ghazi
06-03-2009, 08:09 PM
I think he's got 2-3 ELITE years left in him after this run ends.

jack sommerset
06-03-2009, 08:11 PM
i think he has 5 years left

xtremesteven33
06-03-2009, 08:21 PM
I think he's got 2-3 ELITE years left in him after this run ends.

MiamiHeat
06-03-2009, 08:26 PM
Tim Duncan's Spurs have not set yet. He is only 2 years older than Kobe.

If Manu hadn't fucked around and shat all over the Spurs by playing in the Olympics, then Tim could have been in the Finals right now.

daslicer
06-03-2009, 08:45 PM
Kobe turns 31 this summer so I would say 2 more years and his best days are behind him. I also factor that he will be participating in the summer games in 2010 which should add some more mileage to him. The reality is majority of great players don't win titles as the number 1 option after the age of 33. I can't think of any that comes to mind except for MJ.

Allanon
06-03-2009, 09:14 PM
I think we've seen the last of 81 point Kobe. If you were an overwhelming hater and couldn't appreciate that kind of performance (and season) you missed out.

Best individual Kobe show is gone forever. I can't wait for the next pure scorer to put on a show but I don't think the current NBA crop has that kind of talent.

Championship winning Kobe is just getting started. I think he has 3-4 more years of leading the team and a couple more as a #2 guy.

DUNCANownsKOBE2
06-03-2009, 11:13 PM
He's done a great job at adjusting to losing lift and athleticism, there's no possible way to know when we'll start seeing a significant drop off in Kobe's game.

Udokafan05
06-03-2009, 11:16 PM
He's done a great job at adjusting to losing lift and athleticism, there's no possible way to know when we'll start seeing a significant drop off in Kobe's game.

the drop will be as sudden as David Ortiz's.

DMX7
06-04-2009, 12:12 AM
Tim Duncan's Spurs have not set yet. He is only 2 years older than Kobe.

If Manu hadn't fucked around and shat all over the Spurs by playing in the Olympics, then Tim could have been in the Finals right now.

I don't know if Manu would have fixed all our problems.

KSeal
06-04-2009, 01:35 AM
the drop will be as sudden as David Ortiz's.

Nah, I don't think Kobe has been using steroids to do what he's done for this long and then will all of a sudden have to stop in order to not get caught like all the other superstars in his profession.

IMO I think Kobe has 2-3 years left of being the man and I'm fine with that. 2-3 more years to try and win some rings is awesome. Once Kobe goes Andrew Bynum will take over and be Shaq like dominant :rollin Ok maybe the Lakers will suck for awhile.

MambaJuice2408
06-04-2009, 02:04 AM
Tim Duncan's Spurs have not set yet. He is only 2 years older than Kobe.

If Manu hadn't fucked around and shat all over the Spurs by playing in the Olympics, then Tim could have been in the Finals right now.

Lol I hope you don't mean that...

That team would have bowed out in the second round. Weakest spurs frontline in the Duncan era.

Amaso
06-04-2009, 04:17 AM
He's already a jump-shooter primarily right now. He probably only has 2 years left like others have said where can get to the basket almost at will but the Kobe we saw in the regular season is the Kobe we probably will see the next 6 years.

Dex
06-04-2009, 10:11 AM
He's already a jump-shooter primarily right now. He probably only has 2 years left like others have said where can get to the basket almost at will but the Kobe we saw in the regular season is the Kobe we probably will see the next 6 years.

Still one of the deadliest jumpshooters in the game. One thing I've noticed about Kobe is that when he's got one shot for the game, he rarely seems to drive it. He trusts that pullup, and we all know how much of a dagger it can be.

As long as losing his legs doesn't take that away, I think he can still be productive into his later years ala Jordan.

duncan228
06-04-2009, 11:08 AM
Kobe Bryant battles the Orlando Magic and Father Time in NBA Finals (http://www.latimes.com/sports/la-sp-kobe-lakers4-2009jun04,0,6421376.story)
He's still at the top of his game, but at 30 and with 1,118 NBA games played, he probably doesn't have a lot of peak basketball years left.
By Mike Bresnahan
Los Angeles Times

When Kobe Bryant worked out for the Lakers as a high school graduate in 1996, he stunned them with his leaping ability and raw basketball talent that few 17-year-olds had ever possessed. Lakers luminary Jerry West, the team's executive vice president at the time, said it was the greatest workout he had ever witnessed.

Thirteen years and 1,118 NBA games later, Bryant is still one of the best basketball players in the world, but there's a lingering question planted in the backdrop as the Lakers begin the NBA Finals tonight against the Orlando Magic: How much longer can their 11-time All-Star produce eye-catching statistics before age and gravity tap him on the shoulder?

The Lakers and their failure to win a championship since 2002 is only one reason their fan base might be feeling a bit edgy. There's also a sense of urgency because the window for Bryant's career is only a handful of years from sliding shut.

Think of Bryant, who will be 31 in August, as a Ferrari with a well-tested odometer. Consider that he has already played 340 more NBA games than Michael Jordan when the Chicago Bulls' star was the same age, a 44% increase that can be traced to several long Lakers playoff runs early in Bryant's career and his entrance into the NBA immediately after high school. (Jordan waited until after his junior year at the University of North Carolina.)

Bryant continues to post numbers that any fresh-faced 23-year-old would giddily embrace, but, as TV analyst Mark Jackson observed on a recent play where Bryant scored on a routine layup instead of dunking the ball with authority: "Father Time is undefeated."

Bryant joked earlier in the season that he hit old-man status by turning 30, and, indeed, most basketball players are fortunate to still be in the league by their early 30s.

Sticking with his long-standing aura of invincibility, Bryant declined to open up on how his age might drive him in helping the Lakers win their 15th NBA championship.

"I'm not worried about it," he said flatly. "The urgency is there just because it's there."

Bryant is averaging 29.6 points a game in the playoffs, second this spring only to the Cleveland Cavaliers 24-year-old forward LeBron James, who averaged 35.3 points before his one-man show ended last week in the Eastern Conference finals against Orlando.

Bryant was once the West Coast version of James, trying to push the Lakers to success by himself after Shaquille O'Neal was traded in 2004.

Only in the last two seasons have the Lakers become championship caliber again after acquiring All-Star forward Pau Gasol from Memphis and receiving an infusion of youth from 21-year-old 7-footer Andrew Bynum, who is still learning on the job.

It's enough surrounding talent to allow Bryant to excel for several more years, said Lakers guard Derek Fisher, a 13-year NBA veteran who has played 10 seasons with Bryant, more than any other teammate.

"You look at the cumulative age of our team and the potential of so many guys, and we feel like it will be the beginning of something special," Fisher said.

At the same time, Fisher, 34, acknowledged that he and Bryant were "closer to the back than the front" of their careers.

"So there's definitely more of a sense of urgency to have results and not miss out on the end result after a whole season," Fisher said. "That's just not acceptable. I know that's where he is and I can't blame him."

Bryant hates to reveal any shortcomings, but he recently acknowledged being fatigued after a playoff game in Denver, a surprising disclosure from a player who thrives on thoroughly dominating an opponent while showing no vulnerability. Bryant even needed an IV after that Denver game, the altitude and the long season catching up to him in one sweeping gesture after he scored 41 points in 41 minutes.

Not only has he played all 82 regular-season games and 18 playoff games since this NBA season began last October, but he had practically no time off last summer because of his commitment to play for Team USA in the Beijing Olympics, where the team won the gold medal.

Signs of fatigue for Bryant aren't entirely startling for a player who has logged 41,200 minutes as an NBA player.

"That's a lot of mileage," said Lakers forward Luke Walton, who has played his entire six-year career with Bryant. "I tell people the NBA is like aging in dog years. You could be 28 years old, but if you've played 10 years in the league, your body's a lot more worn and torn than a 28-year-old that went to college for a few years and has only had four or five years in the league.

"For Kobe to play that many more games than Jordan and being in the playoffs every year, that's an impressive stat."

Bryant is appearing in his sixth NBA Finals and pursuing his fourth championship, which, if successful, would put him on par with former teammate O'Neal but still behind Magic Johnson, who won five, and Jordan, who won six.

The Lakers have lost their last two trips to the NBA Finals -- a humbling loss to Detroit in 2004 and an embarrassing defeat last year to their hated longtime rivals, the Boston Celtics.

The final game they played last June was a 131-92 loss, the second-largest defeat in Finals history.

Bryant spoke in tightly clipped sentences after that game, the frustration evident in his tone and posture.

This time around, the Lakers are favored to beat Orlando, a team that can score in a variety of ways but doesn't have any championship experience among its top players.

A victory parade this month would "probably" mean more to Bryant than the three titles the Lakers had earlier this decade, he said, particularly since the team hasn't won since 2002.

"We're determined to try to come up with a better result," he said. "The last few times we've been there, it's been the short end of the stick. Hopefully this time around will be better."

21_Blessings
06-04-2009, 12:01 PM
and a couple more as a #2 guy.

#2 behind who? Even at like age 36ish I think Kobe could still drop an easy 22-25 points a game purely on jumpers and his post game. He won't be getting to the line or rebounding as much. But his shooting touch isn't going away.

If Bynum turns into a 20 point a guy Kobe would probably still be the goto guy in crunch time.

benefactor
06-04-2009, 12:09 PM
#2 behind who? Even at like age 36ish I think Kobe could still drop an easy 22-25 points a game purely on jumpers and his post game. He won't be getting to the line or rebounding as much. But his shooting touch isn't going away.

If Bynum turns into a 20 point a guy Kobe would probably still be the goto guy in crunch time.
Probably one of the few times I will agree with you.

Kobe...like Manu...can last longer in the league than some people think because he is flat deadly with his jump shot. If he does not force the issue and he learns to listen to his body as he gets older he can still be one of the main options on a team well into his mid-thirties.