GSH
06-10-2009, 02:55 PM
An article on Trueball by KC Roberts: "It's better to be terrible than mediocre in the NBA"
http://trueball.wordpress.com/2009/06/06/nba-its-better-to-be-terrible-than-mediocre-in-the-nba/
The Spurs have had a decade of late draft picks. This article does a pretty good job of putting that into perspective. No earth-shattering revelations, but he has some interesting points with implications for the Spurs. It's hard to overestimate the value of those first few lottery picks.
The article is long, since it looks at the top 5 picks from several drafts. I'll include the first paragraph, and the last few, to keep the post short enough to read. It's probably worth clicking to look at the rest.
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If you take a look at the 16 playoff teams in the NBA this season 10 of them have drafted in the top 5 since the ‘03 draft and 3 of the 4 semi final teams have drafted in the top 5 in the same time frame. This is understandable when you look at the players that the teams acquired with those selections. Cleveland selected LeBron James first overall in ‘03, Denver selected Carmelo Anthony third overall in ‘03, and Orlando selected Dwight Howard first overall in ‘04. On the other hand 5 of the 8 teams that missed the playoffs in the East haven’t drafted in the top 5 since ‘03 and the ones that have (Toronto, Charlotte, and Milwaukee) are developing into playoff teams or have made the playoffs recently. As a result it is my conviction it is better to either be a top 5 team in the league or a bottom 5 team in the league because otherwise the season was unsuccessful. The top 5 teams have a legitimate chance to win a championship which is obvious but the bottom 5 have the opportunity to sign a talented player who can make them a top 5 team.
So lets take a look at the teams selecting in the top 5 from 2003-2005 to see how the top 5 picks effected their teams success: [Draft details left out by me]
... As you can see if teams use their top 5 pick effectively it can change the direction of the franchise and make them title contenders within 3-4 years. However the teams that constantly fall just shy of the playoffs and pick late in the lottery can’t improve the same way. The best examples are the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Knicks haven’t selected in the top 5 since they drafted Patrick Ewing in ‘88 but they also haven’t had a record over .500 since ‘00/’01 which is when Ewing’s career was coming to an end. Since the ‘01 season the highest the Knicks have selected was last season when they took Daniel Gallinari at 6 and it remains to be seen how he turns out. The Knicks starting depth chart of Duhon, Robinson, Chandler, Harrington, and Lee are all late first round/early second round players and they don’t have a superstar to lead the franchise like a Lebron or Kobe would. As a result the Knicks have ended another season outside of the playoffs and outside of the top 5 and in my mock draft I have them selecting Stephen Curry who is a great shooter but hardly a superstar.
Much like the Knicks the Timberwolves are cursed by their moderate success. In the later years with Garnett the Wolves were good but not great and selected players like William Avery, Ndudi Ebi, and Rashard McCants. As a result the team was always good enough to win around 30 games but not bad enough to get another star to compliment Kevin Garnett. Now with the team finally in rebuilding mode they have some good young players like Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, and last years top 5 pick Kevin Love who will help turn the team around.
There is a time when franchises have to realize that they will not succeed with their roster and need to begin rebuilding. It took the Timberwolves 4 years to realize that they wouldn’t return to the success they had in the early Garnett years and finally traded him to the Celtics for draft picks and one of the best young big men in the league, Al Jefferson. Now teams like Toronto, Pheonix, and Detroit need to realize that it is time to rebuild and need to rearrange their roster so they can sign new free agents and draft picks. After all in the NBA it is better to be terrible than mediocre.
http://trueball.wordpress.com/2009/06/06/nba-its-better-to-be-terrible-than-mediocre-in-the-nba/
The Spurs have had a decade of late draft picks. This article does a pretty good job of putting that into perspective. No earth-shattering revelations, but he has some interesting points with implications for the Spurs. It's hard to overestimate the value of those first few lottery picks.
The article is long, since it looks at the top 5 picks from several drafts. I'll include the first paragraph, and the last few, to keep the post short enough to read. It's probably worth clicking to look at the rest.
- - - - -
If you take a look at the 16 playoff teams in the NBA this season 10 of them have drafted in the top 5 since the ‘03 draft and 3 of the 4 semi final teams have drafted in the top 5 in the same time frame. This is understandable when you look at the players that the teams acquired with those selections. Cleveland selected LeBron James first overall in ‘03, Denver selected Carmelo Anthony third overall in ‘03, and Orlando selected Dwight Howard first overall in ‘04. On the other hand 5 of the 8 teams that missed the playoffs in the East haven’t drafted in the top 5 since ‘03 and the ones that have (Toronto, Charlotte, and Milwaukee) are developing into playoff teams or have made the playoffs recently. As a result it is my conviction it is better to either be a top 5 team in the league or a bottom 5 team in the league because otherwise the season was unsuccessful. The top 5 teams have a legitimate chance to win a championship which is obvious but the bottom 5 have the opportunity to sign a talented player who can make them a top 5 team.
So lets take a look at the teams selecting in the top 5 from 2003-2005 to see how the top 5 picks effected their teams success: [Draft details left out by me]
... As you can see if teams use their top 5 pick effectively it can change the direction of the franchise and make them title contenders within 3-4 years. However the teams that constantly fall just shy of the playoffs and pick late in the lottery can’t improve the same way. The best examples are the New York Knicks and the Minnesota Timberwolves.
The Knicks haven’t selected in the top 5 since they drafted Patrick Ewing in ‘88 but they also haven’t had a record over .500 since ‘00/’01 which is when Ewing’s career was coming to an end. Since the ‘01 season the highest the Knicks have selected was last season when they took Daniel Gallinari at 6 and it remains to be seen how he turns out. The Knicks starting depth chart of Duhon, Robinson, Chandler, Harrington, and Lee are all late first round/early second round players and they don’t have a superstar to lead the franchise like a Lebron or Kobe would. As a result the Knicks have ended another season outside of the playoffs and outside of the top 5 and in my mock draft I have them selecting Stephen Curry who is a great shooter but hardly a superstar.
Much like the Knicks the Timberwolves are cursed by their moderate success. In the later years with Garnett the Wolves were good but not great and selected players like William Avery, Ndudi Ebi, and Rashard McCants. As a result the team was always good enough to win around 30 games but not bad enough to get another star to compliment Kevin Garnett. Now with the team finally in rebuilding mode they have some good young players like Al Jefferson, Randy Foye, and last years top 5 pick Kevin Love who will help turn the team around.
There is a time when franchises have to realize that they will not succeed with their roster and need to begin rebuilding. It took the Timberwolves 4 years to realize that they wouldn’t return to the success they had in the early Garnett years and finally traded him to the Celtics for draft picks and one of the best young big men in the league, Al Jefferson. Now teams like Toronto, Pheonix, and Detroit need to realize that it is time to rebuild and need to rearrange their roster so they can sign new free agents and draft picks. After all in the NBA it is better to be terrible than mediocre.