Bloody day in Iran

[jman3000]

Looks like Rafsanjani has turned against his allies. He's supporting the Ayatollah's speech from Friday.

That will probably do it unless something unforeseen takes place.

[DarrinS]

Looks like Rafsanjani has turned against his allies. He's supporting the Ayatollah's speech from Friday.

That will probably do it unless something unforeseen takes place.


Covering his ass, maybe?

[Winehole23]

Link, jman?

[jman3000]

As usual, Darrin focuses on the insults and ignores all the tough questions.

Well, yeah. If you were confronted with questions that challenged your way of thinking, wouldn't you try to deflect them?

An intellectually honest person would embrace them, but that's not exactly what you're dealing with. Ideology and thought processes are a tough nut to crack.

[jman3000]

ehh... I should retract that statement...

http://www.tehrantimes.com/index_View.asp?code=197201

The source is the Tehran Times... and the story is followed by a bunch of propaganda proclaiming that it's your religious duty to follow the Ayatollah's word, that the military is fully behind the Ayatollah.

My bad.

[Winehole23]

Well, yeah. If you were confronted with questions that challenged your way of thinking, wouldn't you try to deflect them?No. I try to answer them. If I can't, I'll usually admit it.

[jman3000]

The Rafsanjani is the equivalent to the chairman of the Council of Experts. That's why that proclamation would lead me to believe he's turned.

To be honest it's probably just propaganda.

[jman3000]

No. I try to answer them. If I can't, I'll usually admit it.

That's what the second sentence in that post was for. The first sentence was a rhetorical device.

[Winehole23]

For those following the social networking on this, a list of fake tweets can be found here (http://twitspam.org/?p=1403).

[jman3000]

Rafsanjani is pretty much the richest guy in Iran. He's going to pick the side which he thinks will allow him to continue being that guy. It wouldn't surprise me if he did turn. Especially if he saw internal factors working against Mousavi. So what Darrins said is pretty much true of him. He's going to look after his own rich ass over anybody else.

[DarrinS]

Rafsanjani is pretty much the richest guy in Iran. He's going to pick the side which he thinks will allow him to continue being that guy. It wouldn't surprise me if he did turn. Especially if he saw internal factors working against Mousavi. So what Darrins said is pretty much true of him. He's going to look after his own rich ass over anybody else.


Then maybe I should have said covering his assets.

[jman3000]

*rimshot*

[Winehole23]

Oddly, this comes from Iran's state media organ. Cum grano salis.


Larijani criticizes Guardian Council, IRIB (http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=98645&sectionid=351020101)


Sun, 21 Jun 2009 02:11:50 GMT



http://www.presstv.ir/photo/20090621/minooie20090621063430828.jpg
Iran's Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani


Iran's Parliament (Majlis) Speaker Ali Larijani suggests that some of the members in the Guardian Council have sided with a certain candidate in the June 12 presidential election.

Speaking live on the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) Channel 2 on Saturday, the speaker said that "a majority of people are of the opinion that the actual election results are different than what was officially announced."

"The opinion of this majority should be respected and a line should be drawn between them and rioters and miscreants," he was quoted as saying by Khabaronline (http://www.khabaronline.ir/news-11125.aspx) -- a website affiliated with him.

He was referring to rallies that have been held on a daily basis in Iran, since the announcement of the presidential election results last Friday, in which incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was re-elected with almost two thirds of the vote.

The president's main rival Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who according to the Interior Ministry has lost to Ahmadinejad even in the East-Azerbaijan province where he hails from, cried foul and described the election as a 'charade' -- a charge the president and his interior minister have denied.

Mousavi -- Iran's last prime minister -- has as a result called on the Guardian Council, the body that supervises the electoral process, to nullify Friday's vote and hold the election anew.

Larijani, however, believes that the Iranian people have lost their trust in the country's legal system. "Although the Guardian Council is made up of religious individuals I wish certain members would not side with a certain presidential candidate."

"The Guardian Council should use every possible means to build trust and convince the protesters that their complaints will be thoroughly looked into," the parliament speaker added.

Larijani who, was formerly in charge of IRIB, criticized the organization, saying that "the IRIB should not act in a way that provokes people."

The authorities should provide an atmosphere in which people feel free to express their opinion, he concluded.

[jman3000]

They are trying to quell the anger by giving out bread crumbs of good news. Today has been largely quiet and the regime might be on to something in terms of letting people say that a recount should take place. No way in Hell would they allow him to say that if they didn't think it would help them.

It's a possibility things are going to die down while discussion for a new election/recount occurs. Nothing will come of it though and it will only allow Mousavi supporters to reorganize. The flip side to that is that the Iranian government will be able to do the same. It's pretty much a replay of last week when they said they'd count 10% of the vote, but that was an insult to the people's intelligence and didn't work at all. Having other other high level figures outside of Mousavi's camp ask for things like this will convince the people on the fence to stay in their houses.

[DarrinS]

I think I have officially changed my opinion on how Obama has handled this situation. I think I misinterpreted caution as timidity.


For now, I think he has said all that he can say. There's really not much else he can do at this point, IMO, except wait and see how this situation unfolds. The Iranian regime knows that the world is watching. Everything they do to put down reformers only discredits them further.


Flame away.

[jman3000]

Rafsanjani's daughter was arrested apparently. His decision on the Council of Experts could have just been extortion.

[sook]

I think I have officially changed my opinion on how Obama has handled this situation. I think I misinterpreted caution as timidity.


For now, I think he has said all that he can say. There's really not much else he can do at this point, IMO, except wait and see how this situation unfolds. The Iranian regime knows that the world is watching. Everything they do to put down reformers only discredits them further.


Flame away.

This post contains more substance than everything you have ever posted.

Kudos.

[MannyIsGod]

My friend and old landlord is from Iran, and this is her translation of the Neda video from yesterday. As if you needed anymore for this shit to break your heart.


you can hear a brief cry from Neda. Her father says " Neda don't be afraid. Neda! Don't be afraid. Don't be afraid. Neda, don't be afraid. Neda, stay with me. Neda, stay with me. Neda, stay. Stay! Neda, Stay with me. The killed my child. They killed my child. My child! My Child! My chid"

[MannyIsGod]

Based on your posts, it's obvious that you, ExtraStout, and MarcusBryant are intelligent. Sometimes the fancy rhetoric helps your arguments, sometimes it doesn't. I don't pretend to know everything -- I don't. I just state my opinions. Do I need to preface everything I say with "I think"? If you think I'm wrong, just say why. There's no need for insults. We can agree to disagree. It's becoming obvious to me that many posters here are much younger than me. The prevailing tactic in today's universities is to band together and shout down those you disagree with, rather than challenge their ideas.


Do not confuse cable news with universities. This is pretty much utter bullshit.

[MannyIsGod]

yPHfoayYdlw

Video form Tehran today.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Is it just me or is that gathering bigger or as big as anything we saw yesterday.....

[MannyIsGod]

Bigger than anything we got video from yesterday. CNN just ran it a bit ago. They also mentioned the Daily Dish (where I got it from). Andrew Sullivan is an awesome blogger to begin with, but his blog this week has been exceptional.

[jman3000]

yPHfoayYdlw

Video form Tehran today.

That's confirmed for today? Everything I've read has pointed to it being quiet.

Why are they letting such a large procession march unhindered? Yesterday there would have been tear gas everywhere.

I was gonna say it was a pro-Ahmadinajaed rally until I heard the "Mousavi, Mousavi, get my vote back for me" chant.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW, the more videos I see that are from the past two days, the more I think LJ is wrong. The numbers aren't as big as they were earlier this week, but given the level of the crackdown we saw yesterday I'm still very impressed. It takes a lot of balls to step out onto the street when you've seen people shot all day.

[MannyIsGod]

That's confirmed for today? Everything I've read has pointed to it being quiet.

Why are they letting such a large procession march unhindered? Yesterday there would have been tear gas everywhere.

Sullivan claims the video as legit from today, but I don't think anyone is 100% sure.

[jman3000]

Sullivan claims the video as legit from today, but I don't think anyone is 100% sure.

I'm gonna call BS. No way the regime would be that bipolar in regards to letting protesters gather.

[exstatic]

This shit ain't even close to being over.

One woman's death (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1906049,00.html?xid=rss-topstories-cnnpartner)

[MannyIsGod]

I'm gonna call BS. No way the regime would be that bipolar in regards to letting protesters gather.

They can't be everywhere at once dude. I don't know for sure of course, but I'm fairly certain he wouldn't have claimed it as legit without good reason.

[ChumpDumper]

This shit ain't even close to being over.

One woman's death (http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1906049,00.html?xid=rss-topstories-cnnpartner)True, the mourning schedule is tailor-made for the opposition to regroup.

[jman3000]

They can't be everywhere at once dude. I don't know for sure of course, but I'm fairly certain he wouldn't have claimed it as legit without good reason.

They can't be everywhere at once... but that procession looks over a mile long. They'd have to gather... then march. All that is completely obvious and wouldn't be hard to pick up. Unless it was some sort of Forest Gump thing where people just came out and joined as it was already going.

Here's me being a cynic asshole: There's no green and hardly any black in that crowd. That alone makes me suspicious. I don't wanna say it was dubbed over or that it's propaganda to make people get a false sense of security and go out just to be beaten.

I don't know what to think but it just doesn't feel right.

[exstatic]

They can't be everywhere at once... but that procession looks over a mile long. They'd have to gather... then march. All that is completely obvious and wouldn't be hard to pick up. Unless it was some sort of Forest Gump thing where people just came out and joined as it was already going.

Here's me being a cynic asshole: There's no green and hardly any black in that crowd. That alone makes me suspicious. I don't wanna say it was dubbed over or that it's propaganda to make people get a false sense of security and go out just to be beaten.

I don't know what to think but it just doesn't feel right.

Read the Time article. The mourners will be back out in a 3, 7,and 40 day schedule after the deaths. Hence the lack of green.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

Anyone here ever watch Fareed Zakaria GPS at noon on CNN sundays? It's a great foreign issue show, and its insane how many high profile guests he has....I'm watching today's episode and he said this one Iranian journalist that has been on his show a few times has been arrested and noones heard from him for days. He almost started crying on the show.

Today he has freakin Zbigniew Brzeznski as a guest giving his take on the Iran situation.

[timvp]

BTW, the more videos I see that are from the past two days, the more I think LJ is wrong. The numbers aren't as big as they were earlier this week, but given the level of the crackdown we saw yesterday I'm still very impressed. It takes a lot of balls to step out onto the street when you've seen people shot all day.

Wrong about what exactly? That they don't have the needed numbers? Or that it will be squashed soon? I had more than one claim before CBF's meltdown . . .

:hat

[Cant_Be_Faded]

If that was a meltdown then michael finley is a team asset. lol why do you keep tryin to spin this on me
I only think you were wrong about saying this would be a side media blurb were it not for twitter.

[E20]

Anyone here ever watch Fareed Zakaria GPS at noon on CNN sundays? It's a great foreign issue show, and its insane how many high profile guests he has....I'm watching today's episode and he said this one Iranian journalist that has been on his show a few times has been arrested and noones heard from him for days. He almost started crying on the show.

Today he has freakin Zbigniew Brzeznski as a guest giving his take on the Iran situation.

I was watching it right now. I dont' remember the names, but he had two Iranian dudes with green ties on as well lol

[antimvp]

uUjIA3Rt7gk&feature=PlayList&p=39E6F1CC22CAB73B&playnext=1&playnext_from=PL&index=3

[MannyIsGod]

Wrong about what exactly? That they don't have the needed numbers? Or that it will be squashed soon? I had more than one claim before CBF's meltdown . . .

:hat

Well I think if there are enough numbers then it won't get squashed. It seems as though the government has pulled back somewhat today. I guess we'll find out if strikes form up this week.

The internet lockdown alone is going to hurt Iran's economy, which is good in the long run for reformists. If they can grind the country to a halt with strikes then they will absolutely succeed. Early yesterday I thought they'd be smashed soon, but the longer this plays out the more I start to believe they have a realistic chance to pull things out. I still think the odds are not favorable, but they are better than I first gave them credit for.

[MannyIsGod]

I really wonder how many people in Iran are aware of the Neda videos and situation. Its obviously reverberated strongly with everyone here, but is LJ right or do they actually know about her in Iran?

[E20]

Article about her:
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=129112

[MannyIsGod]

The guys on CNN are struggling to keep their composure.

[FaithInOne]

The guys on CNN are struggling to keep their composure.

lol yeah. Americans in general aren't very desensitized to the realities of this world.

[Marcus Bryant]

This is as good a time as any to reflect on the freedoms you take for granted in the US, as well as those SpursTalkers in other liberal democracies.

[Cant_Be_Faded]

This is as good a time as any to reflect on the freedoms you take for granted in the US, as well as those SpursTalkers in other liberal democracies.

No shit. I went to a pool party yesterday and could not help but have what was going on in Iran in the back of my mind the entire time...knowing people were getting shot by their government while I was sitting back enjoying an otherwise beautiful day.

[jman3000]

There's so many possibilities as to what could happen at this point.

Even if Mousavi gets his new election and even if he wins... the schism which has formed between him and the Ayatollah is deep. I think the Ayatollah has to be replaced and Mousavi has to be president in order for this to calm down... but if that happens than you'll have the exact same thing happen with the hardliners that are happening with the reformers now... they'll riot.

This is an incredibly volatile situation and the dynamics are really unprecedented. Concessions by the regime are gonna have to be made at some point... especially if this continues and hinders the economy further.... what they are is hard to determine.

[E20]

There's so many possibilities as to what could happen at this point.

Even if Mousavi gets his new election and even if he wins... the schism which has formed between him and the Ayatollah is deep. I think the Ayatollah has to be replaced and Mousavi has to be president in order for this to calm down... but if that happens than you'll have the exact same thing happen with the hardliners that are happening with the reformers now... they'll riot.

This is an incredibly volatile situation and the dynamics are really unprecedented. Concessions by the regime are gonna have to be made at some point... especially if this continues and hinders the economy further.... what they are is hard to determine.
This scenario could happen, but very highly unlikely and everything will take a turn (IMO for the worse) if they opt to use this route:

Rafsanjani heads the cleric-run Assembly of Experts, which can remove the supreme leader, the country's most powerful figure. He also chairs the Expediency Council, a body that arbitrates disputes between parliament and the unelected Guardian Council.

Removing the supreme leader and having a re-vote sounds like it work, but I think the repercussions of making such drastic changes would divide Iran up and create more turmoil in the streets if such hard action like this were to occur.

[Spurtacus]

This is as good a time as any to reflect on the freedoms you take for granted in the US, as well as those SpursTalkers in other liberal democracies.

:tu

[MannyIsGod]

How fucking old have I gotten when E20 is now posting in the political forum?

[Cant_Be_Faded]

How fucking old have I gotten when E20 is now posting in the political forum?

:lol and every time he posts in the club now its to solve someone's chemistry problem or calculus equation

[timvp]

This is as good a time as any to reflect on the freedoms you take for granted in the US, as well as those SpursTalkers in other liberal democracies.

Yeah, that's exactly what I thought when I watched that video of the girl getting shot. I didn't real feel sad because innocent people get killed by their government every minute of everyday ... but I did feel the "Damn I'm lucky" emotion.

[timvp]

How fucking old have I gotten when E20 is now posting in the political forum?

:lmao

No kidding. When E20 first started posting, his threads were about not making it to the bathroom on time and his fifth grade teacher sending him home from school early as a result.

[jman3000]

Mousavi is smart. The strikes he's called for, alongside the continuing telecommunications blackout have the potential to cripple Iran. If Mousavi has enough supporters who can strike at the oil fields... that's pretty much as bad as it can get in an oil profit dependent country like Iran.

[E20]

WOW

You guys are haters. I was 13/14 when I joined ST and now I'm 20. Geez Louise. :madrun

[jman3000]

That video of the crowd pushing the police back is very moving. You can tell they're scared at first, so they back off. Then you can see them gradually getting courage and inching forward. Then it just takes off and it's off to the races. I couldn't help but smile at the end there.

[BlackSwordsMan]

Anyone here ever watch Fareed Zakaria GPS at noon on CNN sundays? It's a great foreign issue show, and its insane how many high profile guests he has....I'm watching today's episode and he said this one Iranian journalist that has been on his show a few times has been arrested and noones heard from him for days. He almost started crying on the show.

Today he has freakin Zbigniew Brzeznski as a guest giving his take on the Iran situation.

hooman majd? he was on the bill murray show

[BlackSwordsMan]

I mean bill maher

[jman3000]

I'm actually sad that DarrinS pulled a 180. This thread sucks without someone to debate. Somebody should start shit with me just so I have a reason to not write this research paper.

[johnsmith]

I'm actually sad that DarrinS pulled a 180. This thread sucks without someone to debate. Somebody should start shit with me just so I have a reason to not write this research paper.

Your mother is a whore.

[jman3000]

That's Club smack. You have to slam my political views on the current situation.

I'm supporting this uprising, yet I know that even it succeeds the US will not have friendly diplomatic relations with Iran. Our alliance with Israel pretty much makes that an impossibility. Dichotomy anyone?

[johnsmith]

That's Club smack. You have to slam my political views on the current situation.

I'm supporting this uprising, yet I know that even it succeeds the US will not have friendly diplomatic relations with Iran. Our alliance with Israel pretty much makes that an impossibility. Dichotomy anyone?

If she was Iranian, your mother would still be a whore.




I agree with you by the way.

[jman3000]

:lmao god damn it.

[exstatic]

Your mother wears Jihad boots, jman.

[Cry Havoc]

Back on topic.... not sure if it's been stated here in the thread, but two cities in Iran reported over 100% voter turnout.

My heart grieves for this oppressed people.

[Winehole23]

Back on topic.... not sure if it's been stated here in the thread, but two cities in Iran reported over 100% voter turnout.50 cities, at least two provinces. Posted here (http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=129121).

[sabar]

The more I think about it, the more I believe everyone is basically screwed. Say a recount takes place. I say there is a pretty good shot that the election results stay the same. After all that has happened, that won't just settle with the people revolting. Both the government and the dissenters are in trouble no matter what happens.

The best result for the oppressed is that they gain power in government on multiple levels. The best result for the government is that they quell the uprising without looking like monsters to the whole world and they keep the status-quo.

These are mutually exclusive outcomes, and any compromise between the two satisfies neither party. Because of this situation, I say it is in the best interest of both sides to go "all-in". Assuming this, we have the following scenarios.

Unlikely: compromises, recounts, acceptance of results
Advantageous to government: crackdown, opposition runs out of steam
Advantageous to protesters: revolt, government surrenders leadership spots

What the protesters want is this to happen: recounts show entire thing was fraudulent and new leadership is instilled
Problem: they don't live in a government that would let that occur

I would love to think that we are witnessing a peaceful rise in the power of the people before our eyes, but unless someone has counter-points, the only realistic results are:

1. Violent crackdown by government
2. Violent revolt by people
3. People run out of steam, remain under oppressive/corrupt government

None of which will probably have a happy ending.

[Winehole23]

AFP: Revolutionary Guard threatens to crush (http://au.news.yahoo.com/a/-/world/5671912/irans-elite-guards-threatens-to-crush-protests/) protests.



TEHRAN (AFP) - Iran's Revolutionary Guards warned on Monday it would crush further demonstrations over the disputed presidential election after the opposition defiantly vowed to press on with its protests.


The Guards -- an elite force set up to protect the Islamic republic in the wake of the 1979 revolution -- warned of a "decisive and revolutionary" riposte to any further unrest. The warning came after state radio said at least 457 people had been detained in street clashes in Tehran on Saturday that left 10 people dead, bringing the overall toll from a week of violence to at least 17.


But the Guards -- echoing a warning by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Friday -- said it strongly condemned the "illegal path" taken by "deceived elements" amd demanded an end to "rioting and vandalism," in a statement quoted by the Mehr news agency.


"If not, they should expect a decisive and revolutionary confrontation from the children of the Iranian nation in the Guards, the Basij militia and other police and security forces to end the mutiny and riots."

[Winehole23]

Salon (http://www.salon.com/politics/war_room/):


There also appears to be an increasing rift (http://www.nytimes.com/2009/06/22/world/middleeast/22iran.html?_r=1&hp) between Iran's most powerful clerics over the outcome of the election. According to Huffington Post's Nico Pitney, the news site Peiknet (http://www.peiknet.com/1388/09tir/01/PAGE/41RAFSANJANI.htm) has reported that "Ayatollah Rafsanjani has a letter signed by 40 members of the powerful 86-member Assembly of Experts calling for the annulment of the recent presidential election results."

[MannyIsGod]

The news from today's rally so far is horrible. There are reports of huge violence but no video or pictures yet.

[MannyIsGod]

Jesus, if the reports on CNN right now are accurate then then the protest was smashed harshly as hell today.

[Spurtacus]

Paging Ambassador Seagal and Ambassador Van Damme.

[SnakeBoy]

02qY9K2iOqA

[sam1617]

I'm still not sure what these violent "protesters" really expect to achieve with these riots. Its an ineffective strategy that only results in people getting hurt. If you really want to hurt the police and the guys in charge, then calm down, ambush, and kill them, take their weapons and kill more. Losses will be high still, but at least you are achieving a goal. Riots just hurt innocents, hurt guilty, and hurt police without achieving a damn thing.

[LnGrrrR]

I'm still not sure what these violent "protesters" really expect to achieve with these riots. Its an ineffective strategy that only results in people getting hurt. If you really want to hurt the police and the guys in charge, then calm down, ambush, and kill them, take their weapons and kill more. Losses will be high still, but at least you are achieving a goal. Riots just hurt innocents, hurt guilty, and hurt police without achieving a damn thing.

The protestors are (mostly) being peaceful. They're getting attacked.

[sam1617]

The protestors are (mostly) being peaceful. They're getting attacked.

Then don't protest... I mean, when you are putting yourself in a position to fail repeatedly, while getting yourself and innocent people hurt, surely that means you should rethink your strategy. And if its bad enough that they are hunting and attacking you, don't you think a more effective strategy of countering that is in order? Throwing rocks just doesn't cut it against armed and armored opponents.

[LnGrrrR]

Then don't protest... I mean, when you are putting yourself in a position to fail repeatedly, while getting yourself and innocent people hurt, surely that means you should rethink your strategy. And if its bad enough that they are hunting and attacking you, don't you think a more effective strategy of countering that is in order? Throwing rocks just doesn't cut it against armed and armored opponents.

I'm sure one could have said the same thing about Gandhi's tactics once.

[Extra Stout]

Then don't protest... I mean, when you are putting yourself in a position to fail repeatedly, while getting yourself and innocent people hurt, surely that means you should rethink your strategy. And if its bad enough that they are hunting and attacking you, don't you think a more effective strategy of countering that is in order? Throwing rocks just doesn't cut it against armed and armored opponents.
The spectacle of unarmed, peaceful protesters getting beaten or killed by agents of the state has led to social change repeatedly in recent history. The mechanism is that the flagrant demonstration of injustice by the existing regime against its own people drives other power brokers who already were skeptical of the regime's legitimacy over the edge to exact revolution or at least substantial reform.

In the case of Iran, a significant minority of the clerics who lead the country doubt the legitimacy of Ali Khameini's leadership. Rather than being a spiritual leader who sits above the fray, he has revealed himself as a partisan who will knock as many skulls together as necessary to stay in power. He may no longer have enough sway to keep the other clerics from deposing him, especially if they have friends in the army or (even better) the Revolutionary Guard.

Supposedly in the Iranian system the Supreme Leader is supposed to be the religious scholar who is wisest in the ways of Islam. Khameini's credentials always were suspect; his power was derived from his influence among the military leadership. This influence is alleged to have eroded significantly. Furthermore, many clerics have come to doubt whether except in exceptional cases a single man can be wise or incorruptible enough to be entrusted with that much power; many favor spreading power more widely among Guardian Council members.

This uprising is another chapter in what has been so far a twelve-year struggle for reform in the Islamic Republic. Khameini has been immovable as he has thwarted every attempt at reform, but he may be running out of chess pieces. We shall see.

However, your take on the situation probably ought to be etched in stone as the rallying cry of 21st-century American youth. It serves as a poignant juxtaposition to what is evident on the streets of Tehran. But don't etch it in granite or marble or any stone like that. Maybe sandstone.

[sam1617]

The spectacle of unarmed, peaceful protesters getting beaten or killed by agents of the state has led to social change repeatedly in recent history. The mechanism is that the flagrant demonstration of injustice by the existing regime against its own people drives other power brokers who already were skeptical of the regime's legitimacy over the edge to exact revolution or at least substantial reform.

In the case of Iran, a significant minority of the clerics who lead the country doubt the legitimacy of Ali Khameini's leadership. Rather than being a spiritual leader who sits above the fray, he has revealed himself as a partisan who will knock as many skulls together as necessary to stay in power. He may no longer have enough sway to keep the other clerics from deposing him, especially if they have friends in the army or (even better) the Revolutionary Guard.

Supposedly in the Iranian system the Supreme Leader is supposed to be the religious scholar who is wisest in the ways of Islam. Khameini's credentials always were suspect; his power was derived from his influence among the military leadership. This influence is alleged to have eroded significantly. Furthermore, many clerics have come to doubt whether except in exceptional cases a single man can be wise or incorruptible enough to be entrusted with that much power; many favor spreading power more widely among Guardian Council members.

This uprising is another chapter in what has been so far a twelve-year struggle for reform in the Islamic Republic. Khameini has been immovable as he has thwarted every attempt at reform, but he may be running out of chess pieces. We shall see.

However, your take on the situation probably ought to be etched in stone as the rallying cry of 21st-century American youth. It serves as a poignant juxtaposition to what is evident on the streets of Tehran. But don't etch it in granite or marble or any stone like that. Maybe sandstone.

Peaceful protest can work if dealing with reasonable people, or if you have a big friend who can protect you. The US and other nations have thus far shown they are unwilling to protect the protesters, both historically and currently, and Iran's leadership has not proved reasonable. I would argue that while likely more costly in overall human life, if you truly want revolutionary change, then you will have to revolt. If you want gradual change, then in my opinion, protest isn't that effective. Its a middle ground, that combines the worst of both IMO, being slow, and dangerous to life.

[DarkReign]

Peaceful protest can work if dealing with reasonable people, or if you have a big friend who can protect you. The US and other nations have thus far shown they are unwilling to protect the protesters, both historically and currently, and Iran's leadership has not proved reasonable. I would argue that while likely more costly in overall human life, if you truly want revolutionary change, then you will have to revolt. If you want gradual change, then in my opinion, protest isn't that effective. Its a middle ground, that combines the worst of both IMO, being slow, and dangerous to life.

Absolutely not. The goal is to effect change, period. You, being an American, see peaceful protest in the face of death and dismemberment as a waste of time/waste of life/waste of resource.

While that may be true, it is not true to those in Iran who seek change of their own brand.

While I am of the mind that if this were happening in my homeland, I would be with you in the thinking that peaceful protest engaged with brutal law enforcement is a waste of time and that we would be far better served meeting fire with fire, such is the life of others.

Truthfully, these world events solidify the 2nd amendment. I have no delusions that if the US military entered my hometown streets with blood on their minds, that mine would probably spill. But damnit, Im taking some of them with me come hell or high water. This Tehran affair speaks to the boldness of a military who knowingly engages an unarmed populace. Theyre brave, brash and brutal.

I believe their actions and progress would be severly slowed and maybe even completely undermined if they knew that large group of people who outnumber me 20:1 were all armed with AK47s with extra clips. Accuracy, training and field medals arent too important at that stage.

[DarkReign]

However, your take on the situation probably ought to be etched in stone as the rallying cry of 21st-century American youth. It serves as a poignant juxtaposition to what is evident on the streets of Tehran. But don't etch it in granite or marble or any stone like that. Maybe sandstone.

You know, I sometimes still associate "21st Century Youth of America" with myself.

Then I realize I am one year shy of 30 and I dont wear girl pants.

[sam1617]

Absolutely not. The goal is to effect change, period. You, being an American, see peaceful protest in the face of death and dismemberment as a waste of time/waste of life/waste of resource.

While that may be true, it is not true to those in Iran who seek change of their own brand.

While I am of the mind that if this were happening in my homeland, I would be with you in the thinking that peaceful protest engaged with brutal law enforcement is a waste of time and that we would be far better served meeting fire with fire, such is the life of others.

Truthfully, these world events solidify the 2nd amendment. I have no delusions that if the US military entered my hometown streets with blood on their minds, that mine would probably spill. But damnit, Im taking some of them with me come hell or high water. This Tehran affair speaks to the boldness of a military who knowingly engages an unarmed populace. Theyre brave, brash and brutal.

I believe their actions and progress would be severly slowed and maybe even completely undermined if they knew that large group of people who outnumber me 20:1 were all armed with AK47s with extra clips. Accuracy, training and field medals arent too important at that stage.

I agree with you about the 2nd amendment, thats for damn sure.

As for the finding value in sacrificing life for no tangible gain, your right, it seems like a damned waste to get killed while doing nothing. It would be different if there was an organized effort involved in the protests, but they seem like they have no method or plan. Just go out, confront police, get killed. It just doesn't make sense... :depressed

[LnGrrrR]

I agree with you about the 2nd amendment, thats for damn sure.

As for the finding value in sacrificing life for no tangible gain, your right, it seems like a damned waste to get killed while doing nothing. It would be different if there was an organized effort involved in the protests, but they seem like they have no method or plan. Just go out, confront police, get killed. It just doesn't make sense... :depressed

The history books are filled with revolutions, some violent, some peaceful. It's tough to say what will motivate people to support change.

[Winehole23]

Heating up (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/07/13/iran-uprising-blogging_n_230402.html) again.