timvp
06-22-2009, 04:35 PM
After the Spurs got eliminated from the playoffs in April for the first time in a dozen years, I took the opportunity to go on vacation for the month of May. That month turned into seven weeks.
I went into the vacation wanting to cut myself off from all things Spurs. While my curiosity to check SpursTalk from time to time got the best of me, it was a great opportunity to "fill the cup", as Pop would say.
During the vacation, I did a lot of fishing, hiking and more fishing. Even the Lakers championship couldn't spoil my tranquility.
As I attempted to become one with nature, I spent a lot of time thinking about what the Spurs need to do to squeeze in championship number five before the Tim Duncan Window slams shut. However, prior to looking ahead, I want to take time to look at what went wrong for the 2008-09 San Antonio Spurs.
By the final buzzer of Game 5, the shortcomings of the team were obvious. But how did the Spurs get to that point? I believe it was a combination of three aspects.
I. Injuries
Most objective Spurs fans knew that San Antonio's playoff hopes were doomed from the start. Injuries had all but officially ended the season prior to the postseason. There was a tiny, tiny flicker of hope, in theory. But even saying the Spurs had a 1% chance to win the championship prior to the playoffs probably was a bit optimistic in hindsight.
A. Manu Ginobili
When all was said and done in the 2008-09 campaign, Ginobili had played in 44 games and missed 43 games. As it turned out, the stress fracture that ended his season also ended the season for the Spurs.
The controversy surrounding his injury woes goes back to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Did Ginobili suiting up for Argentina and subsequently getting injured lead to his injury ravaged season? First of all, we'll never know conclusively one way or the other. It's just an impossibility to say for sure.
That said, I do think his injuries were connected. Ginobili was forced to try to go from 0 to 60 after missing all of training camp and the preseason. While he eventually found his rhythm, he never really looked overly comfortable on the court. His gait appeared to be odd, which could have contributed to the stress reaction and the resulting stress fracture.
But maybe his injuries aren't connected. Perhaps he just had an unlucky season. Either way, I'm 100% still in Ginobili's corner. Expecting him to skip the Olympics is lunacy. I would have done the exact same thing. Anyone with any type of competitive pulse would have done the same thing.
B. Tim Duncan
Entering the playoffs, there was the hope that Duncan would be able to flip the switch and rise above his pair of sore knees. While he didn't exactly play poorly in the postseason, he wasn't the dominant Duncan we've come to know and expect.
Going back to the regular season, it was day and night when comparing a healthy Duncan and a hobbled Duncan. To begin the season, he was playing at an extremely high level. He was able to score efficiently, he elevated the play of those around him and his passing was better than ever. But then after his tendonosis, it's like he aged ten years overnight.
Did Duncan's knees tire from carrying the team on his back early in the season? Was it just another case of bad luck? Did we just witness the beginning of the end of the superstar Duncan?
I don't have the answer. Hopefully Duncan will be able to bounce back and play superstar level basketball for at least a couple more seasons. If not, that window may have already closed on number five.
C. Ian Mahinmi
It's blasphemy to even list Mahinmi with the two players above him in this section but he was the forgotten injury of the season. Pop said that he was going to play him 35 minutes per game in the preseason. If Mahinmi had shined in that role, the entire course of the season would have been altered.
Right now, nobody knows what the Spurs have in Mahinmi. He could be a poor man's Francisco Elson. He may be that athletic bigman who can provide the energy, shotblocking and intimidation this team desperately needs. Hopefully the Spurs will be able to figure out the truth this coming season.
II. Coaching Mistakes
As a coach, Pop is a gambler. He rarely goes with the road most traveled. As a result, he often either looks like a genius or he makes you scratch your head raw. There's rarely any middle ground when it comes to Pop's coaching.
In the past, he's rolled the dice and won. In the 1999 championship run, he invested in a pair of castoffs in Jaren Jackson and Malik Rose and that investment paid off tenfold by the time the Larry O'Brien was being raised. He 2003, he invested in Stephen Jackson and Speedy Claxton -- and won again. In 2005, he refused to give up on Robert Horry and Horry responded with amazing play. Sticking with a seemingly decrepit Horry once again paid off in 2007.
In the 2009 playoffs, virtually all of Pop's gambles blew up in his face. His investments resulted in a total loss. You can call it bad coaching. I think it's more of a gambling coach who rolled the dice and came up snake eyes.
What gambles went bad?
A. Trusting Matt Bonner
Watching Pop stick with Bonner was like watching a car wreck in slow motion. Bonner's tendency to be overwhelmed by pressure was a major red flag heading into the playoffs. As it turned out, Bonner's postseason play was even worse than anyone could have imagined.
It's somewhat easy to see what Pop was hoping. Starting Bonner spaced the court for the Spurs and gave Duncan room to operate. His shooting made him a quality pick-and-roll participant and his defense was underrated -- especially in terms of moving his feet on the perimeter. But all of those positive attributes on paper went limp when Bonner entered the reality of the playoffs and failed miserably.
Watching the Orlando Magic, you can sort of see what Pop was thinking. The Magic relied on one interior player surrounded by a team of shooters who can stretch the floor. With the new rules of the NBA, it's almost impossible to deny penetration. With penetration comes a sagging defense, which results in open shooters. That's where Bonner should have been valuable.
The result of relying on Bonner makes it look like a bad coaching move but I think the reasoning was somewhat sound.
B. Playing Roger Mason, Jr. at Point Guard
This had to be one of the more frustrating moves Pop made in the 2008-09 season. Out of the blue, Pop decided to try to stick Mason into the backup point guard position -- and stubbornly kept at it.
It never seemed to work in the regular season and worked even less in the postseason. Mason looked like a fish out of water who couldn't handle the ball well enough, pass well enough or create well enough to play point guard.
Why did Pop do it? I think the answers are many. First, he obviously thought George Hill wasn't ready for the limelight. Second, he wanted to provide the bench unit with more scoring. Third, and most important, he did it for Mason.
If you look at Mason's play, some of his best games early in the season came at point guard. He's a player who needs the ball to get into a groove and what better way to get the ball than to be point guard? You can even go back to his Wizards days and see he played best when at point guard. Mason himself even said that he enjoys playing point guard.
What happened? I'm not sure. My best guess is that teams adjusted to the fact that he almost always looked for the jumper off of the pick-and-roll. Once they took away his jumper and made him drive and create, Mason was taken out of his comfort zone.
Pop remained confident in Mason hoping he'd be able to readjust -- but that readjustment never came to fruition.
C. Banishing George Hill
Hill seemed to be having a relatively good rookie season. He had his ups and downs but overall Hill seemed to be an able member of the rotation. Pop apparently disagreed with that assessment and figured that Hill simply wasn't ready.
Pop probably had bad memories of Beno Udrih crash landing in the NBA Finals and almost costing the team a championship. With Mason showing to be a decent point guard and Hill still having room to grow, Pop decided to take Hill out of the direct sunlight coming down the stretch of the season.
In retrospect, the move appears to have been a mistake. When given a chance in the playoffs, Hill looked like he belonged in the rotation. Perhaps not as a point guard but at least somewhere out on the perimeter.
D. Believing in Michael Finley
By the end of the season, Finley was getting big minutes game in and game out. But I don't think that was Pop's plan from the beginning. Bruce Bowen began the year as the starting small forward. Pop then inserted Ime Udoka into the starting lineup at small forward but Udoka struggled mightily. Finley was the third and final answer at small forward.
In the regular season, he actually wasn't that bad. In fact, it may have been his best season as a member of the Spurs. But like Bonner, most Spurs fans saw the disastrous end before it played out on the court. Finley was just too old, too slow and too unathletic to compete when the going got tough in the postseason.
Pop seemed to be hoping for an Horry-esque miracle out of Finley. That never came, to say the least.
E. Giving Up on Bruce Bowen
This may have been the oddest gamble of them all by Pop. The coach who has drilled defense first, defense second and defense last decided to bench his defensive ace for basically the entire season? It is a decision I will never understand.
Predictably, Bowen was one of the team's lone bright spots when the playoffs rolled around -- on both ends of the court. He not only was the best perimeter defender, he was also the one shooter who didn't seem frightened by the stage.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Pop thought the Spurs needed more offense than Bowen could provide. As a result, Pop went with the home run in hoping Finley could turn back the clock instead of going with the ol' dependable with three championships to his name. It was surely a gamble -- and a bad one at that, in my opinion.
III. Lack of Talent
The truth in its rawest form is that even if the Spurs were healthy and even if Pop's gambles paid off, a championship still was likely unattainable due to a lack of talent. The roster has slowly eroded over the years thanks to limited money and limited quality draft picks to work with.
Could a team win a championship that relied on Bonner and Finley to play major roles? I just don't think so. For the Spurs to win a fifth championship, I believe that an increase in talent level is needed. There doesn't have to be sweeping changes but spots 4 through 12 on the roster need a bit of tweaking.
Overall, the 2008-09 will likely be remembered as a lost season. If the Spurs bounce back, history will remember it as an injury plagued season. If the Spurs don't bounce back, history will remember it as the first sign of slippage as the San Antonio slid into mediocrity.
Let's believe it will be the former and not the latter.
If you are still reading this, I'd like to thank you for being apart of the SpursTalk community. During the offseason, Kori and I have some plans to hopefully better the site. If you have any comments, questions or recommendations for the future of SpursTalk, feel free to email the website at [email protected].
In the coming 48 hours, I hope to outline my beliefs of what the Spurs should do during this offseason to return to the top. I will also be writing the 9th annual Spurs draft cheat sheet in that time frame. (Speaking of the draft, I will be moving the draft threads into the main Spurs forum so that we can concentrate on the draft -- even though it does appear to be quite underwhelming, especially from San Antonio's perspective.)
Oh and I'll also now start replying to the email and private messages I ignored while on vacation. I apologize in advance for any late replies.
Thanks again.
I went into the vacation wanting to cut myself off from all things Spurs. While my curiosity to check SpursTalk from time to time got the best of me, it was a great opportunity to "fill the cup", as Pop would say.
During the vacation, I did a lot of fishing, hiking and more fishing. Even the Lakers championship couldn't spoil my tranquility.
As I attempted to become one with nature, I spent a lot of time thinking about what the Spurs need to do to squeeze in championship number five before the Tim Duncan Window slams shut. However, prior to looking ahead, I want to take time to look at what went wrong for the 2008-09 San Antonio Spurs.
By the final buzzer of Game 5, the shortcomings of the team were obvious. But how did the Spurs get to that point? I believe it was a combination of three aspects.
I. Injuries
Most objective Spurs fans knew that San Antonio's playoff hopes were doomed from the start. Injuries had all but officially ended the season prior to the postseason. There was a tiny, tiny flicker of hope, in theory. But even saying the Spurs had a 1% chance to win the championship prior to the playoffs probably was a bit optimistic in hindsight.
A. Manu Ginobili
When all was said and done in the 2008-09 campaign, Ginobili had played in 44 games and missed 43 games. As it turned out, the stress fracture that ended his season also ended the season for the Spurs.
The controversy surrounding his injury woes goes back to the 2008 Beijing Olympics. Did Ginobili suiting up for Argentina and subsequently getting injured lead to his injury ravaged season? First of all, we'll never know conclusively one way or the other. It's just an impossibility to say for sure.
That said, I do think his injuries were connected. Ginobili was forced to try to go from 0 to 60 after missing all of training camp and the preseason. While he eventually found his rhythm, he never really looked overly comfortable on the court. His gait appeared to be odd, which could have contributed to the stress reaction and the resulting stress fracture.
But maybe his injuries aren't connected. Perhaps he just had an unlucky season. Either way, I'm 100% still in Ginobili's corner. Expecting him to skip the Olympics is lunacy. I would have done the exact same thing. Anyone with any type of competitive pulse would have done the same thing.
B. Tim Duncan
Entering the playoffs, there was the hope that Duncan would be able to flip the switch and rise above his pair of sore knees. While he didn't exactly play poorly in the postseason, he wasn't the dominant Duncan we've come to know and expect.
Going back to the regular season, it was day and night when comparing a healthy Duncan and a hobbled Duncan. To begin the season, he was playing at an extremely high level. He was able to score efficiently, he elevated the play of those around him and his passing was better than ever. But then after his tendonosis, it's like he aged ten years overnight.
Did Duncan's knees tire from carrying the team on his back early in the season? Was it just another case of bad luck? Did we just witness the beginning of the end of the superstar Duncan?
I don't have the answer. Hopefully Duncan will be able to bounce back and play superstar level basketball for at least a couple more seasons. If not, that window may have already closed on number five.
C. Ian Mahinmi
It's blasphemy to even list Mahinmi with the two players above him in this section but he was the forgotten injury of the season. Pop said that he was going to play him 35 minutes per game in the preseason. If Mahinmi had shined in that role, the entire course of the season would have been altered.
Right now, nobody knows what the Spurs have in Mahinmi. He could be a poor man's Francisco Elson. He may be that athletic bigman who can provide the energy, shotblocking and intimidation this team desperately needs. Hopefully the Spurs will be able to figure out the truth this coming season.
II. Coaching Mistakes
As a coach, Pop is a gambler. He rarely goes with the road most traveled. As a result, he often either looks like a genius or he makes you scratch your head raw. There's rarely any middle ground when it comes to Pop's coaching.
In the past, he's rolled the dice and won. In the 1999 championship run, he invested in a pair of castoffs in Jaren Jackson and Malik Rose and that investment paid off tenfold by the time the Larry O'Brien was being raised. He 2003, he invested in Stephen Jackson and Speedy Claxton -- and won again. In 2005, he refused to give up on Robert Horry and Horry responded with amazing play. Sticking with a seemingly decrepit Horry once again paid off in 2007.
In the 2009 playoffs, virtually all of Pop's gambles blew up in his face. His investments resulted in a total loss. You can call it bad coaching. I think it's more of a gambling coach who rolled the dice and came up snake eyes.
What gambles went bad?
A. Trusting Matt Bonner
Watching Pop stick with Bonner was like watching a car wreck in slow motion. Bonner's tendency to be overwhelmed by pressure was a major red flag heading into the playoffs. As it turned out, Bonner's postseason play was even worse than anyone could have imagined.
It's somewhat easy to see what Pop was hoping. Starting Bonner spaced the court for the Spurs and gave Duncan room to operate. His shooting made him a quality pick-and-roll participant and his defense was underrated -- especially in terms of moving his feet on the perimeter. But all of those positive attributes on paper went limp when Bonner entered the reality of the playoffs and failed miserably.
Watching the Orlando Magic, you can sort of see what Pop was thinking. The Magic relied on one interior player surrounded by a team of shooters who can stretch the floor. With the new rules of the NBA, it's almost impossible to deny penetration. With penetration comes a sagging defense, which results in open shooters. That's where Bonner should have been valuable.
The result of relying on Bonner makes it look like a bad coaching move but I think the reasoning was somewhat sound.
B. Playing Roger Mason, Jr. at Point Guard
This had to be one of the more frustrating moves Pop made in the 2008-09 season. Out of the blue, Pop decided to try to stick Mason into the backup point guard position -- and stubbornly kept at it.
It never seemed to work in the regular season and worked even less in the postseason. Mason looked like a fish out of water who couldn't handle the ball well enough, pass well enough or create well enough to play point guard.
Why did Pop do it? I think the answers are many. First, he obviously thought George Hill wasn't ready for the limelight. Second, he wanted to provide the bench unit with more scoring. Third, and most important, he did it for Mason.
If you look at Mason's play, some of his best games early in the season came at point guard. He's a player who needs the ball to get into a groove and what better way to get the ball than to be point guard? You can even go back to his Wizards days and see he played best when at point guard. Mason himself even said that he enjoys playing point guard.
What happened? I'm not sure. My best guess is that teams adjusted to the fact that he almost always looked for the jumper off of the pick-and-roll. Once they took away his jumper and made him drive and create, Mason was taken out of his comfort zone.
Pop remained confident in Mason hoping he'd be able to readjust -- but that readjustment never came to fruition.
C. Banishing George Hill
Hill seemed to be having a relatively good rookie season. He had his ups and downs but overall Hill seemed to be an able member of the rotation. Pop apparently disagreed with that assessment and figured that Hill simply wasn't ready.
Pop probably had bad memories of Beno Udrih crash landing in the NBA Finals and almost costing the team a championship. With Mason showing to be a decent point guard and Hill still having room to grow, Pop decided to take Hill out of the direct sunlight coming down the stretch of the season.
In retrospect, the move appears to have been a mistake. When given a chance in the playoffs, Hill looked like he belonged in the rotation. Perhaps not as a point guard but at least somewhere out on the perimeter.
D. Believing in Michael Finley
By the end of the season, Finley was getting big minutes game in and game out. But I don't think that was Pop's plan from the beginning. Bruce Bowen began the year as the starting small forward. Pop then inserted Ime Udoka into the starting lineup at small forward but Udoka struggled mightily. Finley was the third and final answer at small forward.
In the regular season, he actually wasn't that bad. In fact, it may have been his best season as a member of the Spurs. But like Bonner, most Spurs fans saw the disastrous end before it played out on the court. Finley was just too old, too slow and too unathletic to compete when the going got tough in the postseason.
Pop seemed to be hoping for an Horry-esque miracle out of Finley. That never came, to say the least.
E. Giving Up on Bruce Bowen
This may have been the oddest gamble of them all by Pop. The coach who has drilled defense first, defense second and defense last decided to bench his defensive ace for basically the entire season? It is a decision I will never understand.
Predictably, Bowen was one of the team's lone bright spots when the playoffs rolled around -- on both ends of the court. He not only was the best perimeter defender, he was also the one shooter who didn't seem frightened by the stage.
If I had to guess, I'd say that Pop thought the Spurs needed more offense than Bowen could provide. As a result, Pop went with the home run in hoping Finley could turn back the clock instead of going with the ol' dependable with three championships to his name. It was surely a gamble -- and a bad one at that, in my opinion.
III. Lack of Talent
The truth in its rawest form is that even if the Spurs were healthy and even if Pop's gambles paid off, a championship still was likely unattainable due to a lack of talent. The roster has slowly eroded over the years thanks to limited money and limited quality draft picks to work with.
Could a team win a championship that relied on Bonner and Finley to play major roles? I just don't think so. For the Spurs to win a fifth championship, I believe that an increase in talent level is needed. There doesn't have to be sweeping changes but spots 4 through 12 on the roster need a bit of tweaking.
Overall, the 2008-09 will likely be remembered as a lost season. If the Spurs bounce back, history will remember it as an injury plagued season. If the Spurs don't bounce back, history will remember it as the first sign of slippage as the San Antonio slid into mediocrity.
Let's believe it will be the former and not the latter.
If you are still reading this, I'd like to thank you for being apart of the SpursTalk community. During the offseason, Kori and I have some plans to hopefully better the site. If you have any comments, questions or recommendations for the future of SpursTalk, feel free to email the website at [email protected].
In the coming 48 hours, I hope to outline my beliefs of what the Spurs should do during this offseason to return to the top. I will also be writing the 9th annual Spurs draft cheat sheet in that time frame. (Speaking of the draft, I will be moving the draft threads into the main Spurs forum so that we can concentrate on the draft -- even though it does appear to be quite underwhelming, especially from San Antonio's perspective.)
Oh and I'll also now start replying to the email and private messages I ignored while on vacation. I apologize in advance for any late replies.
Thanks again.