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View Full Version : This was posted to cnnsi BEFORE the draft...



exstatic
06-27-2009, 10:08 AM
Spurs fans should be interested in bullet points 2 and 4. We probably got the best rebounder and best shooter in the draft with second round picks.

Luke Winn pre-draft article (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/luke_winn/06/24/nba.draftnumbers/index.html)

timvp
06-27-2009, 10:14 AM
Nice find. If Clint can get his shot off against NBA height and shows enough finishing ability, he should make the team. If he shows any ability at all to handle the ball, Pop could fall in love with the Hill/Clint backcourt.

CGD
06-27-2009, 10:22 AM
Good find. Really liked the below metric

Here's how Blair's rebounding numbers stack up against the stats of quality big men (from their final college year) in the past three drafts:

Player Team OR/ DR/
40PA 40PA

DeJuan Blair (09) Pitt 8.1 9.9
Kevin Love (08) UCLA 5.1 9.8
Michael Beasley (08) KU 4.7 9.9
Brook Lopez (08) Stanford 3.8 7.2
Greg Oden (07) OSU 5.0 8.5
Al Horford (07) Florida 3.6 10.0
Joakim Noah (07) Florida 3.9 9.1
Paul Millsap (06) La. Tech 7.0 8.5
LaMarcus Aldridge (06) TX 4.4 6.6
Tyrus Thomas (06) LSU 4.2 9.5

Spursmania
06-27-2009, 10:23 AM
Lots of potential. This season will be very interesting.:hungry:

Muser
06-27-2009, 10:28 AM
Good find. Really liked the below metric

Here's how Blair's rebounding numbers stack up against the stats of quality big men (from their final college year) in the past three drafts:

Player Team OR/ DR/
40PA 40PA

DeJuan Blair (09) Pitt 8.1 9.9
Kevin Love (08) UCLA 5.1 9.8
Michael Beasley (08) KU 4.7 9.9
Brook Lopez (08) Stanford 3.8 7.2
Greg Oden (07) OSU 5.0 8.5
Al Horford (07) Florida 3.6 10.0
Joakim Noah (07) Florida 3.9 9.1
Paul Millsap (06) La. Tech 7.0 8.5
LaMarcus Aldridge (06) TX 4.4 6.6
Tyrus Thomas (06) LSU 4.2 9.5


:wow:wow

DBMethos
06-27-2009, 10:30 AM
God DAMN I can't wait for this season to start!

angelbelow
06-27-2009, 10:42 AM
sweet article!

exstatic
06-27-2009, 10:46 AM
Jack is going to be a successful G in the NBA at some point, hopefully soon. The shocking thing to me in those stats was he was the only one of the top 8 guards they listed that had a score over 1.0 in the categories of "off the dribble" and "one on one" shooting. If you can shoot that effectively off the bounce, you're going to have an NBA career. The fact that he is a fucking assassin when left uncovered on the catch and shoot (1.8 points per possession, blew away the field) is just fucking icing.

Oh, and he was the only guard in that group to have a score > 1.0 in EVERY one of the categories. He's versatile.

timvp
06-27-2009, 10:50 AM
Here's another very interesting take on Blair from HoopAnalyst (http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/0809ew12.htm).


2. Dejuan Blair, Pittsburgh: If you look at the list of great sophomore rebounders in the intro, you’ll notice that Blair is the only player other than Barkley to also top the important PF benchmarks of .570 FG pct, 20.0 P40 and 3.5 SB40. I like a player who does all the important things well. That’s pretty much what I base these projections on. It seems that it’s more important to do all the necessary things well enough than it is to be off the charts in one or two statistical categories while coming up weak in the others. For a PF prospect the important categories are 2 pt. FG pct, P40, R40 and SB40. Here are past NCAA PFs who, like Blair, topped .580 2 pt. pct, 20.0 P40, 12.0 R40 and 3.5 SB40:

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/9782/hoopanalyst.jpg

The group has everything. There’s a HOFer, all-stars, rotation regulars, journeymen and Cliff Rozier. Shelden Williams is still a career waiting to happen, but I suspect he’s on his way to at least journeyman status. Rozier is the only other player here who didn’t have a long NBA career, but this article suggests he probably wasn’t equipped for NBA success, despite having great talent. In general this is a pretty good group to be in with. There are a couple of things to point out here though. The first is the most successful players in this group all posted a FG pct. over .600. Blair is more comparable to the rotation regulars with his .593. The next is I could up the SB40 standard on this test to 4.0 and get rid of both Rozier, the only bust of the bunch, and Blair. So while it’s impressive that Blair is a part of this exclusive stat club, he definitely compares more closely with players at the lower end.

Blair’s height has become an issue, but it doesn’t bother me much. He’s 6’7” in shoes with a wingspan of 7’2”. With his girth, that would seem to make him formidable enough. I’m a little more concerned about his weight. He seemed to be carrying a little too much of it during the season and this is something he’ll have to fix. Since he’s only 20, I don’t see this as a problem just yet. It could be a case of a young guy who let himself get a little heavy, because it didn’t affect his ability to dominate a game at the college level. I’ve read reports that he’s dropped as much as 15 lbs for the workouts and has become much quicker because of it. If this is true, it’s a very good sign.

My feeling is that Blair will become a pretty solid NBA player. At the low end he’ll be a valuable reserve who has one of the best rebounding rates in the league. At the high end he’s a starter who’s always one of the league leaders in rebounding. I doubt he’ll ever be enough of a scorer to be an all-star, but he’s going to be an effective player.

Man, his rebounding numbers are so disgusting. There are other great rebounders on that list and Blair's rebounding is head and shoulders above everyone. Just comparing his numbers across the board to Barkley is exciting.

Let's hope that his knees hold up and that he can rebound even two-thirds as well on the NBA level.

Sotongball21
06-27-2009, 10:53 AM
Jack is going to be a successful G in the NBA at some point, hopefully soon. The shocking thing to me in those stats was he was the only one of the top 8 guards they listed that had a score over 1.0 in the categories of "off the dribble" and "one on one" shooting. If you can shoot that effectively off the bounce, you're going to have an NBA career. The fact that he is a fucking assassin when left uncovered on the catch and shoot (1.8 points per possession, blew away the field) is just fucking icing.

Oh, and he was the only guard in that group to have a score > 1.0 in EVERY one of the categories. He's versatile.


The 1.8 is really insane. 4 down and its either a manu, RJ, Tony slash or a 3pt for Jack, Money, Manu and so on... ohhhhh

Suddenly we have another slasher and another shooter 0.o

exstatic
06-27-2009, 10:53 AM
DeJuan Blair could be a 10 rpg guy in 20-22 minutes.

MarHill
06-27-2009, 10:55 AM
Here's another very interesting take on Blair from HoopAnalyst (http://www.hoopsanalyst.com/0809ew12.htm).



Man, his rebounding numbers are so disgusting. There are other great rebounders on that list and Blair's rebounding is head and shoulders above everyone. Just comparing his numbers across the board to Barkley is exciting.

Let's hope that his knees hold up and that he can rebound even two-thirds as well on the NBA level.

+1

Also, he's a huge chip on his shoulder for motivation. Lookout for DeJuan!!!

timvp
06-27-2009, 11:05 AM
To show that HoopAnalyst knows his stuff, here's what he said about George Hill list year before the draft:


2. George Hill, IUPUI: That palindrome school. Hill’s numbers are eye-popping. I don’t know that there has ever been a small college guard with numbers this impressive. Bonzi Wells was, but he was more of a forward in college. There have been some good small college guards in recent years, but each had some flaw that kept them from succeeding. Doremus Bennerman and Eddie Benton scored often, but not efficiently enough. Andrew Wisniewski and Jermaine Boyette were efficient scorers, but had weak defensive numbers. Kyle Hill had great numbers, but also had trouble with turnovers. George Hill has no statistical issues that have traditionally been red flags for prospects. His shooting percentages are .545, .450 and .580 overall, on 3-pointers and 2-pointers respectively. He gets to the line a lot, pushing his PPS up to an amazing 1.70. This would be great for any player at any position, but it’s incredible for a player like Hill who scores 21.5 PPG. The other numbers are also terrific. A 10.0 RSB40 shows he can handle the defense and is won’t be too overmatched early by the athletic challenges of the NBA. His 4.8 A40 and 1.5 A/TO suggest could handle the point for short stretches and maybe able to develop into a full time PG. down the road.

The small college thing has to be looked at though. There haven’t been too many PGs or CGs who have made a successful transition from small college to the NBA. Here are the most successful of recent years and their college stats compared to George Hill:

http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/563/georgehill.jpg

There’s little doubt that Hill is the best scorer of the bunch, considering his lights-out efficiency. He also has better defensive numbers than all except Claxton. The low assists should be a concern, because he’s significantly lower than any player here. This could be one of those red flags. Hill is only 6’2”, so some ability to play the point would help his cause a lot. Another concern is his 3-point shooting. He was at .450, which is great. But that was on only 109 attempts and after he hit .320 in his only other full season. The small college hurdle is always a big one to overcome. In Hill’s case it will be more difficult, because he has PG size, but has been more of a scorer than a distributor. He’s a terrific scorer though and has enough versatility that he should be able to find work in the NBA. His ultimate success or failure will probably rest on his ability to play some PG. If he can make that jump, his other skills should make him a pretty good one, so he’s definitely a great sleeper pick and a player worthy of a low first round selection.

http://hoopsanalyst.com/0708ew16.htm


:wow That had to have been the best pre-draft take on Hill by anyone.

picnroll
06-27-2009, 11:14 AM
WAAYYY early but, given the draft position, will this go down as the Spurs best draft ever?

Early returns are so good Mr Body has even been around to bitch.

And in edit coming from what is considered one of the weakest draft classes ever. Buford may have even made up for the Josh Howard screw up.

exstatic
06-27-2009, 11:20 AM
WAAYYY early but, given the draft position, will this go down as the Spurs best draft ever?

Early returns are so good Mr Body has even been around to bitch.

One of the great things about this draft is the Spurs didn't have to give up anything in the future to move up and get the players they got. If there is a good wing available in their usual 26-30 spot next summer, they can get him.

Best Spurs draft ever was '97, followed by '87 and '89, but this may be the best non-lottery draft.

Marcus Bryant
06-27-2009, 11:37 AM
The Spurs may have landed the second best player in the draft at #37. Both he and McClinton look like classic draft steals: highly productive college players who played in major conferences and who dropped because their size didn't fit the cookie cutter for their position.

TDMVPDPOY
06-27-2009, 12:21 PM
The Spurs may have landed the second best player in the draft at #37. Both he and McClinton look like classic draft steals: highly productive college players who played in major conferences and who dropped because their size didn't fit the cookie cutter for their position.

man if only tiaggo splitters euro contract wasnt a bitch, he couldve been known as a steal also who dropped so bad cause of his countract with TAU

Agloco
06-27-2009, 12:36 PM
WAAYYY early but, given the draft position, will this go down as the Spurs best draft ever?

Early returns are so good Mr Body has even been around to bitch.

And in edit coming from what is considered one of the weakest draft classes ever. Buford may have even made up for the Josh Howard screw up.

I'm assuming you mean non lottery draft.....

If so the answer right now is probably yes.

Blackjack
06-27-2009, 12:51 PM
One of the great things about this draft is the Spurs didn't have to give up anything in the future to move up and get the players they got. If there is a good wing available in their usual 26-30 spot next summer, they can get him.

Best Spurs draft ever was '97, followed by '87 and '89, but this may be the best non-lottery draft.

Yeah, this draft was an absolute win/win.

Holt doesn't have to shell out the money to get a first, the team doesn't have to give up a first in what most likely will be a better draft, and the Spurs got two first-round talents (one lottery-talent) on unguaranteed second-round contracts.

Ridiculous...:elephant

exstatic
06-27-2009, 12:52 PM
The Spurs may have landed the second best player in the draft at #37. Both he and McClinton look like classic draft steals: highly productive college players who played in major conferences and who dropped because their size didn't fit the cookie cutter for their position.

That's the key. These guys aren't coming from the Horizon League, they're from the ACC and the Big East conferences. They've put up excellent numbers against the best college competition in the land.

Darkwaters
06-27-2009, 01:08 PM
And the thing that everybody seems to be forgetting...we also got a high quality draft and stash on top of it all (a guy the Spurs had been targeting as high as 37).

whottt
06-27-2009, 01:27 PM
My take is this:

If Jack McClinton isn't the best shooting guard name ever, I'd like to hear what is.

Jack

McClinton


Just sounds like shooting guard.


It's also been a pretty good omen whenever the Spurs have had any shooter with the word Jack in his name. Which kind of makes sense if you think about it.


I don't have to see McClinton play to know he will be an NBA player...I can simply look at his name and see he will be.

Jack

McClinton

That's a name that will get an NBA job as shooting guard, whether you can actually shoot the ball or not.

Jack

McClinton

whottt
06-27-2009, 01:31 PM
To show that HoopAnalyst knows his stuff, here's what he said about George Hill list year before the draft:



:wow That had to have been the best pre-draft take on Hill by anyone.

What's scary is that AD was a better passer and that was pretty much what he struggled with in the NBA. What's also scary is that it looks like the Spurs were going after Hill for the same reasons they went after AD.

Yeah I know he eventually turned into a nice NBA player...but he really never fit on the Spurs, or with Pop.

Watching them play, Hill doesn't remind me of AD at all, I think Hill is going to be a much much better player than AD turned out to be...but the similarities between Hill and AD are kind of alarming.

whottt
06-27-2009, 01:37 PM
BTW, I'm totally sold on Blair and this is why:


On the night Scola was drafted in the second round, wanting to go in the 1st round:


It would have been better if I hadn't been drafted at all.


Now contrast that with this:



Sure I wanted to go in the first round, but I am still happy I got drafted by an organization like the Spurs. I am going to make all 36 teams that passed on me regret it. I'm going to give 1000% on the court for the Spurs

Fucking sold :tu

That's what you're supposed to say I don't care what your buyout is.

Hemotivo
06-27-2009, 02:15 PM
blair don't have a buyout

koriwhat
06-27-2009, 03:10 PM
Hill doesn't remind me of AD at all...but the similarities between Hill and AD are kind of alarming.

what?

whottt
06-27-2009, 04:19 PM
what?

http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?p=3499936#post3499936

SenorSpur
06-27-2009, 04:46 PM
Blair is an absolute rebounding phenom in the vein of a Charles Barkley, Jerome Lane,, Xavier McDaniel and Leonard "Truck" Robinson - all of who were undersized power forwards. Since rebounding is more of position, effort, heart and desire, rather than leaping ability, I see absolutely no reason that he cannot continue to be prolific in that area, at the NBA level.

Obstructed_View
06-27-2009, 05:14 PM
Nice find. If Clint can get his shot off against NBA height and shows enough finishing ability, he should make the team. If he shows any ability at all to handle the ball, Pop could fall in love with the Hill/Clint backcourt.

I'm already there. Those guys should be subbed in as a unit with about five minutes to go in every quarter.

Mr. Body
06-27-2009, 05:17 PM
McClinton has a crazy step-back move. Most good 1-on-1 players have a good jab and step back to get a shot off, but his, he can get 8-10 feet on a guy. Look at some of the youtube videos, like the one against Lawson and UNC. He jab-dribbles to about the free throw line, then two steps and he's behind the three launching it. He'll be able to get space when he needs it. Like, er, the Microwave.