scottspurs
06-30-2009, 11:41 AM
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/news/story?id=4293663
Free-agent fits: Bucher's Top 10
Finding the right homes for the best free agents means matching skills with systems
By Ric Bucher
ESPN The Magazine
Archive
Thanks to the Spurs, Cavaliers and Magic, it's possible to believe that at least some NBA teams are more committed to raising a championship banner than protecting their profit margin.
Now the questions are: how committed? Will anybody else join the party? And if they do, will they make the right choices?
While the 2010 free-agent class might be loaded with franchise cornerstones, the current class has enough cornices and rebar to upgrade a team from fixer-upper to showcase status. Even if Kobe Bryant, Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer opt to enter the pool, the options for reworking a team's foundation are limited. (Bryant has indicated he'd only opt out to sign a longer deal with the Lakers, so he is not included in the rankings.) That's not great for Detroit and Oklahoma City, who have the most cap room and are looking to upgrade their core. But for teams in search of specialty items, there is an array of young role players and battle-tested veterans available.
The key, as always, is paying the right price and adding pieces that don't just look nice, but fit the décor. The 76ers blew their budget landing Elton Brand last summer, not anticipating that he'd bog down their up-tempo offense. The Clippers emptied the till to get Baron Davis, not figuring on Brand's defection or Davis balking at coach Mike Dunleavy's play-calling. The Magic, conversely, made a lower-profile move in signing guard Mickael Pietrus, but his athleticism, 3-point shooting and ability to defend bigger wings filled a glaring need at shooting guard and made him an invaluable ingredient in getting them to the Finals.
It's through that lens that we examine the 20 free agents who could have the biggest impact next season, either on their current teams if they're re-signed or on a new team badly needing their services. To help any real or imaginary GMs, a synopsis of what each player can deliver at this stage of his career (which might not match popular opinion) and the best and worst systems for him are included. You know, just in case someone's thinking of building a grand staircase for a mobile home.
*UFA = Unrestricted free agent
*RFA = Restricted free agent
1. Hedo Turkoglu, SF/PF, Magic (UFA)
His Game: Playmaking forward who is as close to LeBron James as any 30-year-old in the league can be. Very good passer, but a better scorer, particularly in the clutch. Has complete face-up game -- 3s off the dribble, pull-up jumpers, and the ability to finish at the rim. Size and length discourage most teams from attacking him defensively, but without a shotblocker behind him, he's an easy mark.
Right system: In short: Orlando's. Doesn't have stamina to orchestrate offense all night but is fearless when needed. Has to have shooters to space the floor because his handle is shaky in traffic. Also needs a strong team-defense concept.
Wrong system: A point-guard dominated one or any emphasizing pick-and-rolls or a drive-and-kick style where he's not directly involved. Loses a lot of his value if he's merely a spot-up threat or a third option. Up-tempo is not his strength, either, because he has amazing skills but average athleticism for a SF/PF.
Best Fits: Magic, Pistons, Blazers, Grizzlies, Bucks
2. Carlos Boozer, PF, Jazz (UFA)
His Game: Equally adept at pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop. Confidence-based jump shooter -- when he's feeling it, he knocks them down, but when he's not, his shot is way off. Better inside when he can body an opponent. Average on-ball defender, not a shotblocking or ball-hawking presence. Exceptional offensive rebounder, especially off his own shots and strong on boards overall.
Right System: The more structured, the better, but a similarly versatile big is needed next to him. Has to have a dominant playmaker to utilize all his strengths and a shotblocking center to protect his defensive weaknesses. Ideally, he's the second or third option, even though he'd like to be the first. Needs an organization that advertises its belief in him, publicly and privately.
Wrong System: One where he's not at least the second option or where public critiques by coach/GM/owner are accepted. He's an elephant: He never forgets. Long bigs who can match his agility give him fits, which is why he can't be a team's only frontline threat.
Best Fits: Cavaliers, Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Grizzlies, Jazz
3. Ben Gordon, SG, Bulls (UFA)
His Game: Scorer, pure and simple. Despite his size (6-foot-3), he can elevate and knock down contested jumpers off the dribble against almost anybody and get to the rim. Quick brakes and release are the keys. Mediocre or worse in every other aspect of the game, but you can count on between 20-to-30 points every night and half of those in the fourth quarter.
Right System: Simple and wide open with a place to hide him on defense. Teammates who will do the dirty work without complaint and a point guard strong enough to keep the rest of the team involved and defend the opposing shooting guard.
Wrong System: Low-scoring, defensive-oriented team that sees him as anything more than a designated scorer. Not likely to mesh with a star who expects to get the ball at crunch time. Has to have an agile shotblocker behind him to discourage opponents from exploiting his size and overall lack of defense.
Best Fits: Bulls, Hawks, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Knicks, Suns, Hornets
4. Andre Miller, PG, 76ers (UFA)
His Game: Strong on pick-and-rolls and post-ups. Remarkably effective getting into the paint considering he is not a threat outside 20 feet. Much better finisher than passer in the paint, unless it's a lob. Uses his size and strength well when he can get up into his man on defense; capable of guarding both 2s and 1s.
Right System: A self-sufficient one where he can be a closer rather than creator. Works well as a calming influence in an up-tempo attack. Exceptional rebounder for a point guard, which, when paired with athletic wings, makes for lots of transition points.
Wrong System: Anything that asks him to be a traditional point guard. A post-up big man limits the best parts of his game. Needs a star who draws double teams and an alley-oop big man to open up his mid-range game.
Best Fits: 76ers, Blazers, Warriors, Heat, Raptors, Knicks, Pacers
5. Rasheed Wallace, PF/C, Pistons (UFA)
His Game: Unlimited jump-shooting range with ability to turn and score over either shoulder in the post. Excellent help and on-the-ball defender when he's in the mood; has strength to play behind and length to three-quarter on the block. Smartest all-around post defender in the league.
Right System: Half-court, slower tempo, now that age has cut his endurance. Commanding, battle-tested coach required, because he won't hesitate to go off the reservation at the first whiff of uncertainty or incompetence. Need an aggressive No. 1 offensive option because he would rather play off a star than be one. A team and coach with a defensive focus are important to keep him committed to the cause.
Wrong System: Anywhere without clearly defined roles. Or a team that relies on him night in and night out, offensively or defensively, or with a coach still learning the ropes.
Best Fits: Celtics, Mavericks, Spurs, Magic
6. Mehmet Okur, C, Jazz (UFA)
His Game: Versatile scorer, particularly lethal on pick-and-pops and weak-side 3s, but has a serviceable post game against slower bigs. Deceptively nimble. Also a deceptively effective passer. Makes an effort defending the ball but is nonexistent giving help. Decent defensive rebounder.
Right System: Ideally a pick-and-roll dominated offense where he is the third option, although he's capable of being the No. 2 guy, next to a shotblocking power forward. Also needs a dominant point guard who can draw the defense and allow him to go one-on-one or shoot on the catch. Needs plays run for him to get shots.
Wrong System: A one-on-one dominated attack that doesn't allow offense to be a form of defense or expects him to score off rebounds. Okur isn't going to lock down anybody or break them down, so he needs an offense that gets him shots in general -- and 3s, in particular -- to win his matchup.
Best Fits: Jazz, Warriors, Bulls, Cavaliers, Magic, Spurs, 76ers, Suns
7. Lamar Odom F Lakers, (UFA)
His Game: Ultimate facilitator, the basketball equivalent of a utility infielder. Capable of a little of everything -- post scoring, 3-pointers, dribble drives, assists, rebounds, blocked shots -- and usually does exactly that.
Right System: Any that he can enhance rather than engineer. Needs a strong leader, an understanding coach and hardnosed guys next to him up front to handle the physical chores in the paint. The more structure the better, because decision-making is suspect.
Wrong System: An inflexible one that counts on him to contribute in a specific area. He does not impose his will, so it's paramount to find a matchup he can naturally exploit. Can't be the best or second-best player.
Best Fits: Lakers, Spurs, Magic, Celtics
8. Trevor Ariza, SF, Lakers (UFA)
His game: Streaky 3-point shooter, good finisher off cuts, but marginal handle and no mid-range jumper off dribble. Tenacious, eager defender, both on the ball and in passing lanes. Quick and lanky but surprisingly strong, so he can defend bigger players in the post.
Right System: A structured defensive-oriented one with at least one playmaker, since he's not comfortable shooting contested jumpers. Extremely quiet, so leadership has to come from elsewhere. Very adept at moving without the ball and a willing passer, so he flourishes in a pass-and-cut offense.
Wrong System: Freewheeling, drive-and-kick where he has to handle or be a playmaker. Three-point shot still not good enough to be a staple of his game.
Best Fits: Lakers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Bobcats, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Jazz
9. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, Cavaliers
His Game: Defensive stopper on the post, clever moving without the ball, chasing loose balls and rebounds for extra possessions, excellent help defender in every way except as a shotblocker. Deceptively agile and athletic. Finishes well around the rim in traffic. Jump shot is improving, but still unreliable.
Right System: Defensive-oriented with four offensive threats around him, leaving him free to score off putbacks and backdoor cuts. Drive-and-kick where he's the big rolling to the basket.
Wrong System: Post-player dominated offense or scheme based on pick-and-rolls where he's not involved. Those frameworks eliminate his cuts off the ball for baskets or chances for putbacks.
Best Fits: Cavaliers, Celtics, Hawks, Bulls, Nuggets, Thunder, Suns
10. Marvin Williams, SF, Hawks (RFA)
His Game: Versatile scorer, especially now that he's developed corner 3-point range. Ability to isolate and score on post moves or face-up drives. Might have been Hawks' best defender when healthy; developing into stopper for league's growing legion of playmaking small forwards.
Right System: Handle still needs improvement so has to have shooters/scorers that space the floor. Good transition finisher. Would flourish with a disciplined defensive team.
Wrong System: One built around a dominant scoring post player, since the best part of his offensive game is around the paint and his 3-point shooting isn't that good.
Best Fits: Heat, Mavericks, Blazers, Pistons, Bulls, Hawks
Free-agent fits: Bucher's Top 10
Finding the right homes for the best free agents means matching skills with systems
By Ric Bucher
ESPN The Magazine
Archive
Thanks to the Spurs, Cavaliers and Magic, it's possible to believe that at least some NBA teams are more committed to raising a championship banner than protecting their profit margin.
Now the questions are: how committed? Will anybody else join the party? And if they do, will they make the right choices?
While the 2010 free-agent class might be loaded with franchise cornerstones, the current class has enough cornices and rebar to upgrade a team from fixer-upper to showcase status. Even if Kobe Bryant, Mehmet Okur and Carlos Boozer opt to enter the pool, the options for reworking a team's foundation are limited. (Bryant has indicated he'd only opt out to sign a longer deal with the Lakers, so he is not included in the rankings.) That's not great for Detroit and Oklahoma City, who have the most cap room and are looking to upgrade their core. But for teams in search of specialty items, there is an array of young role players and battle-tested veterans available.
The key, as always, is paying the right price and adding pieces that don't just look nice, but fit the décor. The 76ers blew their budget landing Elton Brand last summer, not anticipating that he'd bog down their up-tempo offense. The Clippers emptied the till to get Baron Davis, not figuring on Brand's defection or Davis balking at coach Mike Dunleavy's play-calling. The Magic, conversely, made a lower-profile move in signing guard Mickael Pietrus, but his athleticism, 3-point shooting and ability to defend bigger wings filled a glaring need at shooting guard and made him an invaluable ingredient in getting them to the Finals.
It's through that lens that we examine the 20 free agents who could have the biggest impact next season, either on their current teams if they're re-signed or on a new team badly needing their services. To help any real or imaginary GMs, a synopsis of what each player can deliver at this stage of his career (which might not match popular opinion) and the best and worst systems for him are included. You know, just in case someone's thinking of building a grand staircase for a mobile home.
*UFA = Unrestricted free agent
*RFA = Restricted free agent
1. Hedo Turkoglu, SF/PF, Magic (UFA)
His Game: Playmaking forward who is as close to LeBron James as any 30-year-old in the league can be. Very good passer, but a better scorer, particularly in the clutch. Has complete face-up game -- 3s off the dribble, pull-up jumpers, and the ability to finish at the rim. Size and length discourage most teams from attacking him defensively, but without a shotblocker behind him, he's an easy mark.
Right system: In short: Orlando's. Doesn't have stamina to orchestrate offense all night but is fearless when needed. Has to have shooters to space the floor because his handle is shaky in traffic. Also needs a strong team-defense concept.
Wrong system: A point-guard dominated one or any emphasizing pick-and-rolls or a drive-and-kick style where he's not directly involved. Loses a lot of his value if he's merely a spot-up threat or a third option. Up-tempo is not his strength, either, because he has amazing skills but average athleticism for a SF/PF.
Best Fits: Magic, Pistons, Blazers, Grizzlies, Bucks
2. Carlos Boozer, PF, Jazz (UFA)
His Game: Equally adept at pick-and-roll and pick-and-pop. Confidence-based jump shooter -- when he's feeling it, he knocks them down, but when he's not, his shot is way off. Better inside when he can body an opponent. Average on-ball defender, not a shotblocking or ball-hawking presence. Exceptional offensive rebounder, especially off his own shots and strong on boards overall.
Right System: The more structured, the better, but a similarly versatile big is needed next to him. Has to have a dominant playmaker to utilize all his strengths and a shotblocking center to protect his defensive weaknesses. Ideally, he's the second or third option, even though he'd like to be the first. Needs an organization that advertises its belief in him, publicly and privately.
Wrong System: One where he's not at least the second option or where public critiques by coach/GM/owner are accepted. He's an elephant: He never forgets. Long bigs who can match his agility give him fits, which is why he can't be a team's only frontline threat.
Best Fits: Cavaliers, Lakers, Celtics, Magic, Grizzlies, Jazz
3. Ben Gordon, SG, Bulls (UFA)
His Game: Scorer, pure and simple. Despite his size (6-foot-3), he can elevate and knock down contested jumpers off the dribble against almost anybody and get to the rim. Quick brakes and release are the keys. Mediocre or worse in every other aspect of the game, but you can count on between 20-to-30 points every night and half of those in the fourth quarter.
Right System: Simple and wide open with a place to hide him on defense. Teammates who will do the dirty work without complaint and a point guard strong enough to keep the rest of the team involved and defend the opposing shooting guard.
Wrong System: Low-scoring, defensive-oriented team that sees him as anything more than a designated scorer. Not likely to mesh with a star who expects to get the ball at crunch time. Has to have an agile shotblocker behind him to discourage opponents from exploiting his size and overall lack of defense.
Best Fits: Bulls, Hawks, Mavericks, Timberwolves, Knicks, Suns, Hornets
4. Andre Miller, PG, 76ers (UFA)
His Game: Strong on pick-and-rolls and post-ups. Remarkably effective getting into the paint considering he is not a threat outside 20 feet. Much better finisher than passer in the paint, unless it's a lob. Uses his size and strength well when he can get up into his man on defense; capable of guarding both 2s and 1s.
Right System: A self-sufficient one where he can be a closer rather than creator. Works well as a calming influence in an up-tempo attack. Exceptional rebounder for a point guard, which, when paired with athletic wings, makes for lots of transition points.
Wrong System: Anything that asks him to be a traditional point guard. A post-up big man limits the best parts of his game. Needs a star who draws double teams and an alley-oop big man to open up his mid-range game.
Best Fits: 76ers, Blazers, Warriors, Heat, Raptors, Knicks, Pacers
5. Rasheed Wallace, PF/C, Pistons (UFA)
His Game: Unlimited jump-shooting range with ability to turn and score over either shoulder in the post. Excellent help and on-the-ball defender when he's in the mood; has strength to play behind and length to three-quarter on the block. Smartest all-around post defender in the league.
Right System: Half-court, slower tempo, now that age has cut his endurance. Commanding, battle-tested coach required, because he won't hesitate to go off the reservation at the first whiff of uncertainty or incompetence. Need an aggressive No. 1 offensive option because he would rather play off a star than be one. A team and coach with a defensive focus are important to keep him committed to the cause.
Wrong System: Anywhere without clearly defined roles. Or a team that relies on him night in and night out, offensively or defensively, or with a coach still learning the ropes.
Best Fits: Celtics, Mavericks, Spurs, Magic
6. Mehmet Okur, C, Jazz (UFA)
His Game: Versatile scorer, particularly lethal on pick-and-pops and weak-side 3s, but has a serviceable post game against slower bigs. Deceptively nimble. Also a deceptively effective passer. Makes an effort defending the ball but is nonexistent giving help. Decent defensive rebounder.
Right System: Ideally a pick-and-roll dominated offense where he is the third option, although he's capable of being the No. 2 guy, next to a shotblocking power forward. Also needs a dominant point guard who can draw the defense and allow him to go one-on-one or shoot on the catch. Needs plays run for him to get shots.
Wrong System: A one-on-one dominated attack that doesn't allow offense to be a form of defense or expects him to score off rebounds. Okur isn't going to lock down anybody or break them down, so he needs an offense that gets him shots in general -- and 3s, in particular -- to win his matchup.
Best Fits: Jazz, Warriors, Bulls, Cavaliers, Magic, Spurs, 76ers, Suns
7. Lamar Odom F Lakers, (UFA)
His Game: Ultimate facilitator, the basketball equivalent of a utility infielder. Capable of a little of everything -- post scoring, 3-pointers, dribble drives, assists, rebounds, blocked shots -- and usually does exactly that.
Right System: Any that he can enhance rather than engineer. Needs a strong leader, an understanding coach and hardnosed guys next to him up front to handle the physical chores in the paint. The more structure the better, because decision-making is suspect.
Wrong System: An inflexible one that counts on him to contribute in a specific area. He does not impose his will, so it's paramount to find a matchup he can naturally exploit. Can't be the best or second-best player.
Best Fits: Lakers, Spurs, Magic, Celtics
8. Trevor Ariza, SF, Lakers (UFA)
His game: Streaky 3-point shooter, good finisher off cuts, but marginal handle and no mid-range jumper off dribble. Tenacious, eager defender, both on the ball and in passing lanes. Quick and lanky but surprisingly strong, so he can defend bigger players in the post.
Right System: A structured defensive-oriented one with at least one playmaker, since he's not comfortable shooting contested jumpers. Extremely quiet, so leadership has to come from elsewhere. Very adept at moving without the ball and a willing passer, so he flourishes in a pass-and-cut offense.
Wrong System: Freewheeling, drive-and-kick where he has to handle or be a playmaker. Three-point shot still not good enough to be a staple of his game.
Best Fits: Lakers, Cavaliers, Celtics, Bobcats, Magic, Spurs, Rockets, Pistons, Jazz
9. Anderson Varejao, PF/C, Cavaliers
His Game: Defensive stopper on the post, clever moving without the ball, chasing loose balls and rebounds for extra possessions, excellent help defender in every way except as a shotblocker. Deceptively agile and athletic. Finishes well around the rim in traffic. Jump shot is improving, but still unreliable.
Right System: Defensive-oriented with four offensive threats around him, leaving him free to score off putbacks and backdoor cuts. Drive-and-kick where he's the big rolling to the basket.
Wrong System: Post-player dominated offense or scheme based on pick-and-rolls where he's not involved. Those frameworks eliminate his cuts off the ball for baskets or chances for putbacks.
Best Fits: Cavaliers, Celtics, Hawks, Bulls, Nuggets, Thunder, Suns
10. Marvin Williams, SF, Hawks (RFA)
His Game: Versatile scorer, especially now that he's developed corner 3-point range. Ability to isolate and score on post moves or face-up drives. Might have been Hawks' best defender when healthy; developing into stopper for league's growing legion of playmaking small forwards.
Right System: Handle still needs improvement so has to have shooters/scorers that space the floor. Good transition finisher. Would flourish with a disciplined defensive team.
Wrong System: One built around a dominant scoring post player, since the best part of his offensive game is around the paint and his 3-point shooting isn't that good.
Best Fits: Heat, Mavericks, Blazers, Pistons, Bulls, Hawks