Kori Ellis
04-04-2005, 03:53 PM
Secret plan is an open book
But the Blazers say they are going beyond 'Moneyball' with their new, high-tech draft system
Monday, April 04, 2005
JASON QUICK
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1112608815175340.xml
The Trail Blazers have a secret.
And they think that secret gives them an edge over the rest of the NBA as the June 28 draft approaches.
"I'm not telling you," Kevin Pritchard, the team's interim coach and director of player personnel says insistently when prodded for clues. "This is our proprietary advantage. I've already given you way too much."
At the core of the secret are the Blazers' hiring of a brainy millionaire who was featured in a best-selling book, a bevy of high-tech computer programs funded by owner Paul Allen, and an open-minded way of looking at statistics.
This much is known: The mystery millionaire, who used an alias while being featured in the book and has requested to stay anonymous in conjunction with the Blazers' project for three more months, does quantitative analysis on basketball statistics for the Blazers.
"Kevin was not supposed to leak this," the millionaire said. "I can't talk about it now, but I will be able to talk about it more later, and it will be worth your while."
The computer programs purchased by Allen, combined with some old-fashioned, in-person scouting, have created what the Blazers think is the most sophisticated, complete and cutting-edge system to evaluate players, not only for this draft, but also for free agency and trades.
"I think it's a fresh approach," Pritchard said. "I want to look at things differently, and I like trying to find new ways of looking at the same thing. I want to try and get an advantage over everybody."
In reality, what the Blazers are doing is no secret. It's part of a growing trend in professional sports, as teams look to control the risks of evaluating players by blending quantitative analysis and computer technology with traditional scouting.
It's the basic concept of Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball," which details how Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane and his staff value baseball statistics -- particularly on-base percentage -- as much as or more than old-school scouting reports that generally focused on a player's size and speed.
Now, several baseball teams -- the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Red Sox among them -- have adopted Moneyball theories, and lately, the concept has seeped into the NBA, led by a sharp 28-year-old in the San Antonio Spurs' front office named Sam Presti.
While Presti has been with the Spurs, they have scored two major draft coups: In 2001, they selected point guard Tony Parker with the 28th pick, and last summer, they took guard Beno Udrih with the 28th pick.
Presti urged the Spurs not to give up on Parker despite a poor predraft workout, presenting his case by compiling a five-minute highlight videotape. Udrih was a relative unknown entering the draft. Now Parker is one of the elite guards in the league, and Udrih is in the rotation as a rookie and would rank 11th in the league in three-point percentage if he had made enough shots to qualify.
Pritchard spent a year and half with the Spurs as a scout before coming to the Blazers last August. He is well-schooled in Presti's system, which incorporates a database on players.
"But the thing of it is, this is where we were with that two years ago with the Spurs," Pritchard said, leveling his hand at waist height. "We have added version two or three to that, to where we are here," raising his hand to eye level.
"What we have tried to do is go in and look at a player in different ways than just stats and their (scouting) reports," Pritchard said. "More than anything, it helps us build a book on a player."
The Blazers' database -- referred to around One Center Court as "Kevin's baby" -- includes a player's statistics, his tendencies, how he played against other players, his police blotter, his psychological profile, injuries, media stories and more.
To complement the database, the Blazers hired the mystery millionaire to conduct various quantitative analysis projects.
"I don't want to get into too much detail of what he does, but he is analyzing previous players who have succeeded in the NBA and gleaning what tendencies they have and whether they are transferable. That's about as detailed as I can give you now," Pritchard said.
Later, Pritchard revealed more.
"For example, he will look at rebounding and he'll say, 'Ben Wallace gets 12 rebounds a game, but two of them are on free throws. Let's eliminate that.' . . . He digs deep into the 'quant' (quantitative analysis)," Pritchard said. "We share a lot of information."
The millionaire said his projects with the Blazers are minor compared with what his Bay Area company is preparing to release, giving credence to the notion that quantitative analysis, technology and sports are becoming more intertwined by the season.
What Pritchard wants to do with the Blazers is develop a balance, where computers and people combine to form the best answer. After all, a computer can't determine if a player has a drug problem, doesn't get along with teammates or doesn't respond to coaching.
"I think there's a pendulum, where there is the analytical part, and the quantitative side, saying this is what we should do," Pritchard said. "And right in the middle is where we should be. We can't let the pendulum go too far."
As director of player personnel, Pritchard heads the scouts and directs them in what he is after in a player. The core of his ideal player would have talent and toughness and be unselfish. Then variables are graded: Is the player consistent? Does he love the game? Is he a leader?
"You build this model of a player and numerically weight it," Pritchard said. "A player isn't a number, but it helps interpret what we are looking for."
General manager John Nash, who is more of an old-school evaluator who watches games and gets a gut reaction, said the Blazers' database is an improvement on an already good system that was in place.
"I think it's a little more sophisticated technologically, and I think that it forces the scouts to address certain issues," Nash said. "There are questions asked about each player, questions that have emanated from Kevin's office as to a player's leadership qualities, toughness, who is he, what impact he is going to have, et cetera.
"I think it's a natural progression. I remember the years when we wrote it down on paper, gave it to a secretary, and she typed it up, put it in file and we made a book. But the book we make this year will be far more detailed than the book we printed in 1981."
And it should be, considering what's at stake. With players making multimillion dollars per year, a bad draft pick or a poor decision on a trade or free agent signing has never been more costly.
"I'm hopeful we are ahead of the curve," Pritchard said. "But I can't say what. It's like getting asked who are we going to draft at number five? If I tell you, the San Antonio Spurs will know, and I'm trying to beat the Spurs."
But the Blazers say they are going beyond 'Moneyball' with their new, high-tech draft system
Monday, April 04, 2005
JASON QUICK
http://www.oregonlive.com/sports/oregonian/index.ssf?/base/sports/1112608815175340.xml
The Trail Blazers have a secret.
And they think that secret gives them an edge over the rest of the NBA as the June 28 draft approaches.
"I'm not telling you," Kevin Pritchard, the team's interim coach and director of player personnel says insistently when prodded for clues. "This is our proprietary advantage. I've already given you way too much."
At the core of the secret are the Blazers' hiring of a brainy millionaire who was featured in a best-selling book, a bevy of high-tech computer programs funded by owner Paul Allen, and an open-minded way of looking at statistics.
This much is known: The mystery millionaire, who used an alias while being featured in the book and has requested to stay anonymous in conjunction with the Blazers' project for three more months, does quantitative analysis on basketball statistics for the Blazers.
"Kevin was not supposed to leak this," the millionaire said. "I can't talk about it now, but I will be able to talk about it more later, and it will be worth your while."
The computer programs purchased by Allen, combined with some old-fashioned, in-person scouting, have created what the Blazers think is the most sophisticated, complete and cutting-edge system to evaluate players, not only for this draft, but also for free agency and trades.
"I think it's a fresh approach," Pritchard said. "I want to look at things differently, and I like trying to find new ways of looking at the same thing. I want to try and get an advantage over everybody."
In reality, what the Blazers are doing is no secret. It's part of a growing trend in professional sports, as teams look to control the risks of evaluating players by blending quantitative analysis and computer technology with traditional scouting.
It's the basic concept of Michael Lewis' book "Moneyball," which details how Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane and his staff value baseball statistics -- particularly on-base percentage -- as much as or more than old-school scouting reports that generally focused on a player's size and speed.
Now, several baseball teams -- the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Red Sox among them -- have adopted Moneyball theories, and lately, the concept has seeped into the NBA, led by a sharp 28-year-old in the San Antonio Spurs' front office named Sam Presti.
While Presti has been with the Spurs, they have scored two major draft coups: In 2001, they selected point guard Tony Parker with the 28th pick, and last summer, they took guard Beno Udrih with the 28th pick.
Presti urged the Spurs not to give up on Parker despite a poor predraft workout, presenting his case by compiling a five-minute highlight videotape. Udrih was a relative unknown entering the draft. Now Parker is one of the elite guards in the league, and Udrih is in the rotation as a rookie and would rank 11th in the league in three-point percentage if he had made enough shots to qualify.
Pritchard spent a year and half with the Spurs as a scout before coming to the Blazers last August. He is well-schooled in Presti's system, which incorporates a database on players.
"But the thing of it is, this is where we were with that two years ago with the Spurs," Pritchard said, leveling his hand at waist height. "We have added version two or three to that, to where we are here," raising his hand to eye level.
"What we have tried to do is go in and look at a player in different ways than just stats and their (scouting) reports," Pritchard said. "More than anything, it helps us build a book on a player."
The Blazers' database -- referred to around One Center Court as "Kevin's baby" -- includes a player's statistics, his tendencies, how he played against other players, his police blotter, his psychological profile, injuries, media stories and more.
To complement the database, the Blazers hired the mystery millionaire to conduct various quantitative analysis projects.
"I don't want to get into too much detail of what he does, but he is analyzing previous players who have succeeded in the NBA and gleaning what tendencies they have and whether they are transferable. That's about as detailed as I can give you now," Pritchard said.
Later, Pritchard revealed more.
"For example, he will look at rebounding and he'll say, 'Ben Wallace gets 12 rebounds a game, but two of them are on free throws. Let's eliminate that.' . . . He digs deep into the 'quant' (quantitative analysis)," Pritchard said. "We share a lot of information."
The millionaire said his projects with the Blazers are minor compared with what his Bay Area company is preparing to release, giving credence to the notion that quantitative analysis, technology and sports are becoming more intertwined by the season.
What Pritchard wants to do with the Blazers is develop a balance, where computers and people combine to form the best answer. After all, a computer can't determine if a player has a drug problem, doesn't get along with teammates or doesn't respond to coaching.
"I think there's a pendulum, where there is the analytical part, and the quantitative side, saying this is what we should do," Pritchard said. "And right in the middle is where we should be. We can't let the pendulum go too far."
As director of player personnel, Pritchard heads the scouts and directs them in what he is after in a player. The core of his ideal player would have talent and toughness and be unselfish. Then variables are graded: Is the player consistent? Does he love the game? Is he a leader?
"You build this model of a player and numerically weight it," Pritchard said. "A player isn't a number, but it helps interpret what we are looking for."
General manager John Nash, who is more of an old-school evaluator who watches games and gets a gut reaction, said the Blazers' database is an improvement on an already good system that was in place.
"I think it's a little more sophisticated technologically, and I think that it forces the scouts to address certain issues," Nash said. "There are questions asked about each player, questions that have emanated from Kevin's office as to a player's leadership qualities, toughness, who is he, what impact he is going to have, et cetera.
"I think it's a natural progression. I remember the years when we wrote it down on paper, gave it to a secretary, and she typed it up, put it in file and we made a book. But the book we make this year will be far more detailed than the book we printed in 1981."
And it should be, considering what's at stake. With players making multimillion dollars per year, a bad draft pick or a poor decision on a trade or free agent signing has never been more costly.
"I'm hopeful we are ahead of the curve," Pritchard said. "But I can't say what. It's like getting asked who are we going to draft at number five? If I tell you, the San Antonio Spurs will know, and I'm trying to beat the Spurs."