Blackjack
07-08-2009, 10:44 PM
The Two Week Reload
Antonio McDyess has agreed to terms with the San Antonio Spurs.
Unless they surprise us, the Spurs offseason is more or less finished. The Antonio McDyess signing caps off the most dramatic offseason of the Tim Duncan era, and one of the more impressive offseasons (of any team) that I can remember. The Spurs frontoffice didn’t exactly rebuild this summer, but in the space of a couple weeks they did more than reload–they exchanged their dead-eye little six shooter for an uzi.
Antonio McDyess is the best big to flank Tim Duncan since David Robinson. That’s not hyperbole. Yes, the same Antonio McDyess who will be 35 when the season starts. And yes, the same Antonio McDyess who nearly averaged a double double last season. Consider these per 36 minutes numbers:
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/1649/dice1.jpg
In Antonio McDyess, the Spurs gain a no nonsense rebounding presence, a wealth of blue collar professionalism, and quietly productive scoring. And although McDyess is not a lockdown post defender, he typically drew Detroit’s most challenging low post assignment, fairing decently despite being a tad undersized and old. McDyess may not have the range of Rasheed Wallace, but he fits the Spurs better than any of the remaining free agents. His age and injury history are a concern for San Antonio, no doubt. But the things he does well are not dependent on athleticism. He’s a great get for San Antonio.
Last season, Rasheed Wallace had a TS% of 52 and his efficiency rating was 14.91. McDyess was every bit his equal, posting a comparable TS% of 52.9 and a PER of 16.63. The statistical difference between McDyess and Wallace is a wash.
In recent seasons, McDyess has become a deadly efficient mid-range shooter. He’s good out to 22 ft. Think Kurt Thomas, but with twice as many sweet spots and increased mobility. Kurt Thomas is a good pick and pop pivot that can score up to 17 or 18 feet, but only from a few select areas. Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, can pick and pop, screen and roll, and catch and move. The net gain that is Antonio McDyess spills out in all directions.
The forthcoming front court is vastly superior to its 2008/9 predecessor.
Let me try this from a slightly different angle. The 3-big rotation of Duncan-Blair-McDyess will out produce last year’s pre-Gooden foursome of Duncan-Bonner-Thomas-Oberto. But of course, the Spurs won’t play with a 3-big rotation. Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip and Matt Bonner will compete for the balance of the front court minutes. Those players may not provide the instant offense of Drew Gooden, but they should solidify the frontcourt as a ball controlling juggernaut while providing Pop with a diverse array of offensive configurations. And besides, the debut of Richard Jefferson and the return of Manu Ginobili is certain to give the team’s point production a tremendous boost. In a dramatic turn from previous seasons, the Spurs suddenly have offense to spare.
And here’s an important note: Antonio McDyess primarily scores off of jump shots. The Spurs should have no worries about him losing his offense with increased age. The penetration of Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson should provide him with plenty of space to work within his wheelhouse. Athleticism wanes with age, but jump shots live forever.
And speaking of wheelhouses, LJ Ellis gets a gold star on his chart for suggesting this compliment:
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Tim-Duncans-Shot-Chart.JPG
Tim Duncan's 2008/9 Shot Chart
When TimDuncan sets up on the left block, he likes to shoot over his man or dribble to his right for a jump hook. Antonio McDyess’ comfort shooting from the top of the key and extended elbows provide Duncan with plenty of lane-crossing outlet pass opportunities, especially if McDyess’ man elects to sag and collapse. But more importantly, McDyess should be able to feed Duncan the ball in the left low block. From there, McDyess simply waits for Duncan to work his magic. If opposing teams double off of McDyess, they’ll leave him open from his favorite spots. If the opposing team sends a small pest Duncan’s way, one of Parker, Ginobili or Jefferson can slide into open space or cut to the hoop. Either Tim Ducan will face a bevy of single teams or he’ll see career highs in assist totals. Last season, Tim Duncan’s assist numbers were just shy of his MVP campaigns. The Spurs’ increased offensive weaponry could push Duncan’s assists numbers to 4.0 a contest. That’s a big claim, I know. But Duncan is surrounded on all sides by offensive threats.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Antonio-McDyess-Shot-Chart.JPG
Antonio McDyess' 2008/9 Shot Chart
(Don’t mind the low percentages in the corners. That’s where the wings fill. The Spurs don’t want their bigs hanging out there anyway. Spacing, people. Spacing.)
Despite all this talk of jump shooting, Antonio McDyess still pays homage to his once other worldly athleticism by occasionally finishing above the rim. It’s astonishing that a player his age–and with his injury history–is still able to grab and stick an offensive board before his feet hit the ground. It’s eerie. Antonio McDyess and Grant Hill are their generation’s poster boys of the if-not-for-injury-could-have-been club.
One of the more striking features of McDyess’ game is his rebound rate. Namely, it’s not given an inch to age.
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/8516/dice2.jpg
Again, this suggest something which should greeted with open arms by the Spurs faithful. McDyess’ ability to rebound has everything to do with technique and desire. At this point in his career, he’s simply smarter about positioning, and he’s willing to do the dirty work to establish it. Put differently, Antonio McDyess stopped trying to out jump guys for rebounds several seasons ago, and he’s a better player for it.
Think about this: the Spurs could get 23 rebounds a game from the triumvirate of Duncan-McDyess-Blair. A crucial ingredient to any great defense is the ability to limit second chance opportunities. We know the Spurs will contest every shot hard, and they should have the personnel to convert most misses into one and done possessions. Whatever players like Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip and Matt Bonner bring to the table is gravy.
The McDyess signing makes sense off the court, as well. First, he’s a noted professional who will not only fit within the Spurs’ locker room, but deeply appreciate it. In some ways, Antonio McDyess reminds me of amnesty tax refugee Michael Finley. He’s a noted professional, private and soft-spoken, who is public in his desire to win a ring. There is something heartfelt and sincere about the good guy veteran’s quest for a ring that endears itself to the Alamo.
Jeff McDonald is reporting that the Spurs have offered McDyess the MLE for three years, and the third is only a partial guarantee. This is a sly move by the Spurs front office, one that speaks well of their cap and roster management skills. When the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, they blew up their 2010 cap space. But what they’ve done since shows a grander scheme in their design. The Spurs have simply pushed back their big free agent spending spree until 2012. The only significant contract the Spurs have on the books that summer is Tim Duncan. If things aren’t going well heading into that offseason, the Spurs will have plenty of expiring contracts to deal to jump start a proper rebuild. Richard Jefferson’s expiring contract will bring back 15.2 million in other contracts. Antonio McDyess’ partially guaranteed 5.8 could be used in exactly the same manner as Bruce Bowen’s.
The two year window also puts a cap on the possibility of bleeding a slow death through luxury taxes, especially given the projected drop in the salary cap.
Some fans wonder if 5.8 million is too much to pay for a 34 year old with injury history. The short answer is that it’s actually a good deal for a player that averages a near double and is a perfect edges fit within the team’s system and culture. And ironically, it may have been necessary to bring in an older player to insulate against the relative youth of the frontline. Excluding Duncan and McDyess, the Spurs bigs are 25 yrs old on average. Haislip and Bonner are not spring chickens, but the veteran know how of McDyess balances the inexperience of some of his teammates.
The Spurs have enough young bodies for now. George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Williams and Malik Hairston add enough young legs to the current roster.
Finally, a word about how this affects Tiago Splitter. In short, it doesn’t. If he is willing to play for the Spurs next season, and the Spurs want him, he’ll simply assume the roster spot and cap space currently allotted to Matt Bonner. Splitter is good enough to come in and win meaningful minutes right off. Splitter would take over as full time starter in 2012, with a season within the system under his belt.
To the Spurs’ front office: Well done. It’s been a masterful two weeks. You’re the best in sports.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/07/08/the-two-week-reload/
Antonio McDyess has agreed to terms with the San Antonio Spurs.
Unless they surprise us, the Spurs offseason is more or less finished. The Antonio McDyess signing caps off the most dramatic offseason of the Tim Duncan era, and one of the more impressive offseasons (of any team) that I can remember. The Spurs frontoffice didn’t exactly rebuild this summer, but in the space of a couple weeks they did more than reload–they exchanged their dead-eye little six shooter for an uzi.
Antonio McDyess is the best big to flank Tim Duncan since David Robinson. That’s not hyperbole. Yes, the same Antonio McDyess who will be 35 when the season starts. And yes, the same Antonio McDyess who nearly averaged a double double last season. Consider these per 36 minutes numbers:
http://img37.imageshack.us/img37/1649/dice1.jpg
In Antonio McDyess, the Spurs gain a no nonsense rebounding presence, a wealth of blue collar professionalism, and quietly productive scoring. And although McDyess is not a lockdown post defender, he typically drew Detroit’s most challenging low post assignment, fairing decently despite being a tad undersized and old. McDyess may not have the range of Rasheed Wallace, but he fits the Spurs better than any of the remaining free agents. His age and injury history are a concern for San Antonio, no doubt. But the things he does well are not dependent on athleticism. He’s a great get for San Antonio.
Last season, Rasheed Wallace had a TS% of 52 and his efficiency rating was 14.91. McDyess was every bit his equal, posting a comparable TS% of 52.9 and a PER of 16.63. The statistical difference between McDyess and Wallace is a wash.
In recent seasons, McDyess has become a deadly efficient mid-range shooter. He’s good out to 22 ft. Think Kurt Thomas, but with twice as many sweet spots and increased mobility. Kurt Thomas is a good pick and pop pivot that can score up to 17 or 18 feet, but only from a few select areas. Antonio McDyess, on the other hand, can pick and pop, screen and roll, and catch and move. The net gain that is Antonio McDyess spills out in all directions.
The forthcoming front court is vastly superior to its 2008/9 predecessor.
Let me try this from a slightly different angle. The 3-big rotation of Duncan-Blair-McDyess will out produce last year’s pre-Gooden foursome of Duncan-Bonner-Thomas-Oberto. But of course, the Spurs won’t play with a 3-big rotation. Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip and Matt Bonner will compete for the balance of the front court minutes. Those players may not provide the instant offense of Drew Gooden, but they should solidify the frontcourt as a ball controlling juggernaut while providing Pop with a diverse array of offensive configurations. And besides, the debut of Richard Jefferson and the return of Manu Ginobili is certain to give the team’s point production a tremendous boost. In a dramatic turn from previous seasons, the Spurs suddenly have offense to spare.
And here’s an important note: Antonio McDyess primarily scores off of jump shots. The Spurs should have no worries about him losing his offense with increased age. The penetration of Parker, Ginobili and Jefferson should provide him with plenty of space to work within his wheelhouse. Athleticism wanes with age, but jump shots live forever.
And speaking of wheelhouses, LJ Ellis gets a gold star on his chart for suggesting this compliment:
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Tim-Duncans-Shot-Chart.JPG
Tim Duncan's 2008/9 Shot Chart
When TimDuncan sets up on the left block, he likes to shoot over his man or dribble to his right for a jump hook. Antonio McDyess’ comfort shooting from the top of the key and extended elbows provide Duncan with plenty of lane-crossing outlet pass opportunities, especially if McDyess’ man elects to sag and collapse. But more importantly, McDyess should be able to feed Duncan the ball in the left low block. From there, McDyess simply waits for Duncan to work his magic. If opposing teams double off of McDyess, they’ll leave him open from his favorite spots. If the opposing team sends a small pest Duncan’s way, one of Parker, Ginobili or Jefferson can slide into open space or cut to the hoop. Either Tim Ducan will face a bevy of single teams or he’ll see career highs in assist totals. Last season, Tim Duncan’s assist numbers were just shy of his MVP campaigns. The Spurs’ increased offensive weaponry could push Duncan’s assists numbers to 4.0 a contest. That’s a big claim, I know. But Duncan is surrounded on all sides by offensive threats.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/Antonio-McDyess-Shot-Chart.JPG
Antonio McDyess' 2008/9 Shot Chart
(Don’t mind the low percentages in the corners. That’s where the wings fill. The Spurs don’t want their bigs hanging out there anyway. Spacing, people. Spacing.)
Despite all this talk of jump shooting, Antonio McDyess still pays homage to his once other worldly athleticism by occasionally finishing above the rim. It’s astonishing that a player his age–and with his injury history–is still able to grab and stick an offensive board before his feet hit the ground. It’s eerie. Antonio McDyess and Grant Hill are their generation’s poster boys of the if-not-for-injury-could-have-been club.
One of the more striking features of McDyess’ game is his rebound rate. Namely, it’s not given an inch to age.
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/8516/dice2.jpg
Again, this suggest something which should greeted with open arms by the Spurs faithful. McDyess’ ability to rebound has everything to do with technique and desire. At this point in his career, he’s simply smarter about positioning, and he’s willing to do the dirty work to establish it. Put differently, Antonio McDyess stopped trying to out jump guys for rebounds several seasons ago, and he’s a better player for it.
Think about this: the Spurs could get 23 rebounds a game from the triumvirate of Duncan-McDyess-Blair. A crucial ingredient to any great defense is the ability to limit second chance opportunities. We know the Spurs will contest every shot hard, and they should have the personnel to convert most misses into one and done possessions. Whatever players like Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Haislip and Matt Bonner bring to the table is gravy.
The McDyess signing makes sense off the court, as well. First, he’s a noted professional who will not only fit within the Spurs’ locker room, but deeply appreciate it. In some ways, Antonio McDyess reminds me of amnesty tax refugee Michael Finley. He’s a noted professional, private and soft-spoken, who is public in his desire to win a ring. There is something heartfelt and sincere about the good guy veteran’s quest for a ring that endears itself to the Alamo.
Jeff McDonald is reporting that the Spurs have offered McDyess the MLE for three years, and the third is only a partial guarantee. This is a sly move by the Spurs front office, one that speaks well of their cap and roster management skills. When the Spurs traded for Richard Jefferson, they blew up their 2010 cap space. But what they’ve done since shows a grander scheme in their design. The Spurs have simply pushed back their big free agent spending spree until 2012. The only significant contract the Spurs have on the books that summer is Tim Duncan. If things aren’t going well heading into that offseason, the Spurs will have plenty of expiring contracts to deal to jump start a proper rebuild. Richard Jefferson’s expiring contract will bring back 15.2 million in other contracts. Antonio McDyess’ partially guaranteed 5.8 could be used in exactly the same manner as Bruce Bowen’s.
The two year window also puts a cap on the possibility of bleeding a slow death through luxury taxes, especially given the projected drop in the salary cap.
Some fans wonder if 5.8 million is too much to pay for a 34 year old with injury history. The short answer is that it’s actually a good deal for a player that averages a near double and is a perfect edges fit within the team’s system and culture. And ironically, it may have been necessary to bring in an older player to insulate against the relative youth of the frontline. Excluding Duncan and McDyess, the Spurs bigs are 25 yrs old on average. Haislip and Bonner are not spring chickens, but the veteran know how of McDyess balances the inexperience of some of his teammates.
The Spurs have enough young bodies for now. George Hill, DeJuan Blair, Jack McClinton, Ian Mahinmi, Marcus Williams and Malik Hairston add enough young legs to the current roster.
Finally, a word about how this affects Tiago Splitter. In short, it doesn’t. If he is willing to play for the Spurs next season, and the Spurs want him, he’ll simply assume the roster spot and cap space currently allotted to Matt Bonner. Splitter is good enough to come in and win meaningful minutes right off. Splitter would take over as full time starter in 2012, with a season within the system under his belt.
To the Spurs’ front office: Well done. It’s been a masterful two weeks. You’re the best in sports.
http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/07/08/the-two-week-reload/