hollingers article about marion to the mavs?

[stretch]

can someone post it? curious to see what he says.

[sribb43]

After acquiring Shawn Marion in a four-way deal, Dallas could be L.A.'s biggest competition out West. It's all about prying the window open as long as you can. And with this week's moves to re-up Jason Kidd, sign Marcin Gortat to an offer sheet and acquire Shawn Marion in a four-team deal, the Mavs are doing all they can to keep it from slamming shut while Dirk Nowitzki is still in his prime.

Wednesday's complicated four-way deal with Orlando, Toronto and Memphis sends Marion to the Mavs on a five-year deal worth an estimated $39 million, and his running ability should make him a deadly complement to Kidd in transition. As part of the deal, the Mavs also get Memphis' Greg Buckner and Raptors forward Kris Humphries, an underrated and productive player who likely takes over Brandon Bass' role as a scoring big man off the bench.
Buckner's contract isn't fully guaranteed and he'll likely be waived, but he won't be the only one after the trade is completed. The Mavs sent Jerry Stackhouse to Memphis along with $3 million in cash, and the Grizzlies will waive Stackhouse since he's only guaranteed $2 million of his $7 million salary. Dallas also sent Antoine Wright and Devean George to Toronto as part of the deal.

Memphis also gets guard Quincy Douby from Toronto, whose deal is also not guaranteed. At the end of the day, the Grizzlies earned $2.5 million for renting their cap space for the deal: the cash from Dallas minus the $500,000 difference between Buckner's $1.5 million guarantee and Stackhouse's $2 million.

Orlando's participation was agreeing to sign-and-trade Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto rather than allowing the Raptors to sign him directly. The Magic will get a trade exception worth approximately $8 million as a result, which gives them an option for adding personnel should their pursuit of big men with the midlevel exception not work out.

Meanwhile, Toronto wriggled out of the bind their deal with Turkoglu put them in. The Raptors had to either renounce their rights to several players to give him the five-year, $53 million deal they'd agreed to or had to work a sign-and-trade for Turkoglu.

By obtaining him this way, they become huge winners in this trade. Toronto's acquisition is now technically a trade, which means two things for the Raptors. First, they got a passable wing reserve in the deal in Dallas' Wright, and second, they still can use their midlevel and biannual exceptions to round out their roster this summer.

This is huge for the Raps, as their roster otherwise would have been completely denuded. I was already getting e-mails from Toronto fans with questions like "Think we can get Matt Barnes for the minimum?" Now they can pursue some added backcourt help with their exceptions and make a real run at the playoffs.

In fact, by only getting the trade exception, Orlando let them off the hook quite cheaply. The Magic got cash in the deal, and that always helps, but I'm amazed they didn't get a draft pick or some other form of compensation for their trouble. They've enabled a conference rival to escape from a mess of their own making at shockingly little cost. Orlando is well over the luxury-tax line already and might never use the exception. And besides, they already had a midlevel exception available to use. The Magic should have demanded more to let Toronto off the mat.

Adding Marion gives Dallas another opportunity to capitalize on Dirk Nowitzki's prime seasons. Nonetheless, it's the Mavs that are the story here. It's likely small forward Josh Howard would move to shooting guard to start games, while Jason Terry finishes them, and that the Mavs will often play small with Nowitzki and Marion as a tandem up front. If so, they can create a potentially fearsome starting five of Kidd, Howard, Marion, Nowitzki and Gortat, with a quality second unit of J.J. Barea, Terry, Quinton Ross, Humphries and Erick Dampier behind them. Should they re-sign Bass, an unrestricted free agent, they'd be even more formidable.
That said, this could all go to hell amazingly fast. On opening day, Kidd will be 36, Dampier 34, Terry 32, Nowitzki 31 and Marion 30; Howard also turns 30 in April. Of their top seven players, only Gortat could be described as in his prime, but he has the opposite problem: He's so untested that there's still some uncertainty surrounding how he'll perform as a 30-minute starter.
On the other hand, based on last season's performance, this team looks like a real danger to the West's elite. Dallas boasts eight players who had a PER above the league average last season -- nine if Bass re-signs -- and one of them is a genuine star in Nowitzki.

In a Western Conference in which several of the contenders appear to be shrinking rather than rising, the Mavs are trying to seize the opening for a credible rival to the Lakers to emerge. Thanks to Mark Cuban's willingness to spend freely on a winner, they might have done it. However, Dallas will once again pay far above the luxury tax, and if the age bug strikes, Cuban's dollars might buy a shockingly average team.

But they have a chance to be really good, and at this point it's more than a lot of teams can say. I don't know what Marion has left in his legs, and in most situations I wouldn't be willing to pay almost $40 million over five years to find out. But in this situation, Dallas seized a unique opportunity presented by Toronto's Turkoglu snag. In doing so, they've managed to keep that window open at least one season longer.

Finally, while I have your attention, a few other news items warrant further discussion:
• The Blazers' rumored pursuit of Paul Millsap is a decent risk for Portland. The team has talked about getting more physical since losing to Houston in the first round, and Millsap adds that dimension. He's also capable of playing with LaMarcus Aldridge in the same frontcourt if need be. Additionally, Utah might not be in a position to match, given its intolerable luxury-tax situation.
Portland can offer five years, $45 million with its current cap space, or five years, $52 million if they renounce their rights to Joel Freeland and Petteri Koponen. I like the former arrangement for two reasons. First, there's no reason to go punting away two assets for no reason. And second, $52 million is too much money for Millsap.

Actually, $45 million is too much, given he'll be coming off the bench, but it's a little easier to justify for Portland because they have a short window to use this cap space and obtain talent. They can always make a trade somewhere down the road to even out the roster.

Matching an offer for Millsap would put the Jazz $11 million over the luxury-tax threshold at the lower contract, $12 million at the higher. That's another reason not to bother with the $53 million: It really doesn't change the economics much for the Jazz.

During the seven days Utah has to match, the two sides could also agree to a sign-and-trade with the same contract terms for Millsap. If Utah included Kyle Korver and took back Travis Outlaw and the rights to Koponen and Freeland, the Jazz would only be $2 million over the tax and could probably dump the remaining salary at the trade deadline if need be.

Finally, Utah could preemptively agree to a sign-and-trade before Millsap inked an offer sheet with Portland. In that case, he could get a six-year deal with 10 percent raises. The carrot for Utah would be to include Matt Harpring in the above trade instead of Korver. Millsap would get a six-year, $55 million deal in that scenario and the Jazz would only be about half a million dollars over the tax threshold.

• In a little piece of bookkeeping business, Houston got a $5.7 million disabled player exception for Yao Ming and used that instead of the midlevel exception to sign Trevor Ariza.

This preserves Houston's midlevel and theoretically makes it possible for them to double-dip and pursue somebody like Bass or Milwaukee guard Ramon Sessions. But that's only in theory. I doubt Houston will use its midlevel given its need to avoid the tax this season and preserve cap space for next summer. But it's a nice option to keep around in case they need it later in the season. Since the Rockets only have 45 days to use the injured player exception but all season to use the midlevel -- and the salary afforded by each was the same -- it made sense to do it this way.

• Signing Jannero Pargo to a one-year deal was a great coup for the Bulls for a few reasons. First of all, they needed a fourth guard now that Ben Gordon left for Detroit. And since Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich are both big point guards, he can play off the ball with either and switch assignments on defense.

Second, the one-year part is crucial. Chicago needs to preserve as much cap space as possible for a year from now, when they could potentially make a run at Chicago native Dwyane Wade or some of the other juicy free agents. That's also why you're hearing Tyrus Thomas' name so much; Chicago can only get big cap room if it doesn't make him a qualifying offer, so better to trade him now and get something in return than be left high and dry a year from now.

[Trainwreck2100]

can someone post it? curious to see what he says.

I'm sure his calculator loves the deal

[monosylab1k]

I'm sure his calculator loves the deal

Hollinger is definitely in danger of being McNaired by his jealous/depressed old TI-83.

[bigdog]

:lol:lol:lol

He thinks the Mavs could be the Lakers' best competition in the West? hahahaha

[Ditty]

omg not the mavs of 2006 and 2007

we saw what happened to those teams

:wow

[carrao45]

Hollinger is a Baldheaded Cocksucker
And he hates stuff like my sig picture

[rjv]

the article really does not live up to the headline. as i have said before, hollinger can assess stats and PERs well but he can not assess teams anyway near as well as his knowledge of x's and o's is way short of where it needs to be to make decent predictions about teams.

[pauls931]

I can't wait to see Cuban's ranking of the best small forwards.