Minutes by the Numbers

[Darkwaters]

We've all been looking at the roster and salivating about who else we could bring in the solidify the roster further. But do we honestly have room for all those players? Where will the minutes come from? I put a little thought into it and this is what I personally came up with as far as a regular season rotation:

At the Point
Total Available Minutes: 48

Tony Parker - 35 MPG
He will obviously eat up the lions share of the minutes here and with good reason. Tony is still young, with little risk of injury, and can be played big minutes without too much concern. Still, theres no reason to push TOO hard, especially with a strapping young lad behind him.
Last Season: 34.1 MPG
Career: 33.2 MPG

George Hill - 13 MPG
The sophomore is the benefactor of any left over minutes in the wake of TP9. If Hill can play at a much higher level than last year then they might try and lessen the load on Tony at some point (thereby increasing Hill's share). But who knows?
Last Season: 16.5 MPG
Career: 16.5 MPG

On the Wing
Total Available Minutes: 96

Manu Ginobili - 25 MPG
Manu has never been one to play huge minutes and has thereby been a very efficient player in his limited use. In his later years I think you continue that trend for obvious injury concerns. Especially with player like Richard Jefferson that can carry some of the scoring load, Manu's production will not be as necessary in the regular season.
Last Season: 26.8 MPG
Career: 27.7 MPG

Richard Jefferson - 35 MPG
The long-heralded Spurs messiah (the vaunted athletic 3) is finally here in the form of Richard Jefferson. Hes a guy that can really do whatever you need. He can score, play D and pretty much everything in between. Hes not a big injury concern either, so you probably ride his production all season and I bet he logs the most perimeter minutes on the team by far.
Last Season: 35.8 MPG (Milwaukee)
Career: 35.8 MPG

Roger Mason Jr. - 26 MPG
Mase probably will get the start at the 2 and his shooting should in a fair sum of minutes. We all remember early in last season when he carried us playing at the 2. So long as we keep him away from the point I think Jr will produce admirably again.
Last Season: 30.4 MPG
Career: 19.2 MPG

George Hill - 10 MPG
Hill gained notoriety last season as a capable defensive stopper and quality player. The minutes behind Tony just aren't enough for a blossoming player of such quality. I think you try and steal about 10 MPG at the off-guard and let Hill play with Tony at his natural position a bit. Depending on the development of Hill's outside shooting coupled with the production of Mason you might even make his share more and Mason's less.
Last Season: 16.5 MPG
Career: 16.5 MPG

Down low in the Post
Total Minutes Available: 96

Tim Duncan - 30 MPG
This is still Timmy's team and he is going to command his usual minutes. But I think keeping him around 30 is a safe move. Rather than risking injury to eek out an extra couple regular season wins we should keep him fresh.
Last Season: 33.6 MPG
Career: 36.9 MPG

Antonio McDyess - 30 MPG
Likewise, Dice needs to be playing a reasonable amount of minutes and not dip into excess. Honestly, dropping him to about 25 is a huge possibility if some of the guys behind him step up and can shoulder enough of the load. We'll just have to see.
Last Season: 30.1 MPG (Detroit)
Career: 29 MPG

DeJuan Blair - 20 MPG
Our rebounding phenom should be getting at least 20 MPG next season if he produces like we think he will. But if he is even better than expected then he could pick up an extra 5 or so and spell a guy like Dice a bit. It just really depends. Still, this guy will be getting big minutes as a Spurs rookie I imagine.
Last Season: 27.3 MPG (Pitt University)
Career: N/A

Matt Bonner - 18 MPG
A lot of people will probably balk at this, but I think Bonner will still be logging a fair amount of minutes next season. He has a very good skill in his shooting and he actually shot quite well last season. His ability to space the floor is pretty valuable, plus he knows the system and he DID start last year afterall. Plus, hes a vet that is proven in this league. Haislip and Mahinmi will probably be given the opportunity to unseat him, but at this point I'm not sure they can.
Last Season: 23.8 MPG
Career: 18.3 MPG

The end result is as such:
Parker: 35 MPG
Hill: 23 MPG
Ginobili: 25 MPG
Jefferson: 35 MPG
Mason: 25 MPG
Duncan: 30 MPG
McDyess: 30 MPG
Blair: 20 MPG
Bonner: 18 MPG

Thats a 9-man rotation which is pretty much on par with what we see in the league (probably about a man deeper actually). The obvious snub is Finley...but I just think that you have so much better production in front of him that it's simply not worth it to stick him in there at somebody else's expense.

Thoughts?

[mystargtr34]

Good breakdown. I agree with most of it, but i think Haislip could really eat into Bonner's minutes if he can grasp the system relatively quickly.

[Calavera]

I like your predictions about the rotation, but I think it should be different with the SF spot. I can`t see who will replace RJ when he`s resting. Ginobili and Mason are not that good in D, and Hill can`t guard bigger players, so there should be another wing player with defensive talent right there. I guess Finley will play that role. I hope Blair and Dice stay healthy (and the rest of the team) and produces like he promises to do. We can`t relly only on Duncan down low, last season there were times when nobody on the court was able to post up, with center like Booner....

[SsKSpurs21]

I like your predictions about the rotation, but I think it should be different with the SF spot. I can`t see who will replace RJ when he`s resting. Ginobili and Mason are not that good in D, and Hill can`t guard bigger players, so there should be another wing player with defensive talent right there. I guess Finley will play that role. I hope Blair and Dice stay healthy (and the rest of the team) and produces like he promises to do. We can`t relly only on Duncan down low, last season there were times when nobody on the court was able to post up, with center like Booner....

thats where haislip will step in.

[timvp]

Nice post, Darkwaters.

I disagree slightly but I like your reasoning.

I see it right now as:

PG - Parker 32, Hill 16
SG/SF - Ginobili 28, Jefferson 34, Mason 28, Hill 10
PF/C - Duncan 32, McDyess 25, Blair 20, Bonner (or Haislip or Mahinmi) 15

Out of anyone on the team, I think RJ is built to play the most minutes. Duncan and Parker should both play around 32 to keep them fresh. Ginobili should play around 25 but Pop won't be able to control himself so he'll probably end up around 28.

Hill and Mason are the wild cards. Hill could end up playing a lot of minutes if he can continue to blossom and prove he's worth of playing both guard positions. Mason too should be able to earn minutes as a shooter. If they struggle, then Pop will likely go to Finley. I also factored in some small ball by adding more minutes to the wings.

With the bigs, I don't think McDyess should play much more than 25 minutes. He needs to remain fresh and healthy for the playoffs. Blair is built to play 20 minutes. That's the perfect amount for him. The last bigman minutes are up in the air. Bonner has the inside track but Haislip could very well beat him out. Mahinmi is the dark horse.

This could obviously all change if the Spurs bring in a wing but it's already looking like a nice rotation. I really hope Hill pans out because the Spurs can use the defense he brings and the ability to get to the line. The more minutes Hill takes away from Mason and Finley, the better.

[ffadicted]

I agree with most of what you and timvp said, but you both leave the wing very undersized. I really think Malik is going to get at least 10MPG if he pans out well (which I believe pop thinks he will, since they signed him even before summer league play), and Haislip will play more then bonner in the later half of the season. Malik's minutes will come off mason's and ginobili (even jefferson maybe).

Pop was never one to care about regular season play, so my hopes are that he tries to develop some players from late november until the all star break.

[celldweller]

The thought of Bonner and 18mpg makes me nauseous.

[coyotes_geek]

Come on guys. We all know it's going to happen. Coming up with rotations that do not include Finley are unrealistic. He's RJ's backup.

[ElNono]

The thought of Bonner and 18mpg makes me nauseous.

I don't mind as long as it's limited to the regular season to buy TD some freshness for the playoffs. That's about it.

[barbacoataco]

Is this the rotation as you wish it would be, or as you think it really might be?

I would be surprised if Finley doesn't play.

The more I look at the roster as it stands now, I think there is at least one more move coming. Right now the Spurs have way too many PF's who are undersized as C's- Bonner, Mahinmi, Blair, and Haislip seem like they will be fighting for the same minutes. Once you figure in that Duncan and McDyess are going to get a lot of the C/PF minutes, how do you find minutes for all those other guys, especially since none of them is really built to defend a Shaq, or Howard type player. Mahinmi is the only one who has the size to really be a 5.

[tav1]

I agree with most of what you and timvp said, but you both leave the wing very undersized. I really think Malik is going to get at least 10MPG if he pans out well (which I believe pop thinks he will, since they signed him even before summer league play), and Haislip will play more then bonner in the later half of the season. Malik's minutes will come off mason's and ginobili (even jefferson maybe).

Pop was never one to care about regular season play, so my hopes are that he tries to develop some players from late november until the all star break.

I think everyone makes good points here, and it's a helpful post.

The Spurs seem committed to a little youth movement. I don't think Finley's going to play much, and we won't see Bowen or Oberto back either.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see a 10 man rotation for development purposes. My gut tells me the inactives will be James Gist (Austin), Fin and Bonner.

Also, unless McClinton plays lights out in camp, I suspect Marcus Williams will win out in the roster battle and the Spurs will either farm McClinton out in a James Gist maneuver or ask him to play for the Toros.

I'm still maintain the minority position that the Spurs' third string point going into the season will be Marcus Williams at point forward.

[Marcus Bryant]

1
Parker 31
Hill 17

2
Ginobili 27
Mason 20

3
Jefferson 31
Nocioni 18

4
Duncan 31
Blair 20
Nocioni 5

5
McDyess 27
Mahinmi 13

[Marcus Bryant]

Bonner needs regular minutes to perform well. He looked the best he ever has as a Spur as a starter. Put him back in his spot as a 5th big and I think his performance will look like what we saw in the two seasons prior to 2008-09. That's not to say he wouldn't be a fine 5th big, but you can't take his performance last season and simply cut it in half. I think his FG% would end up closer to 40% than 50% and his 3 point FG% would be closer to 35% than 45%. I can see the Spurs opting to keep him around as the 5th big simply to have that outside threat from a big, though Haislip looks an awful lot like a replacement for Bonner to serve that role.

[barbacoataco]

Is there a way to dump Bonner?

[Marcus Bryant]

Is there a way to dump Bonner?

Sure, provided the Spurs want to take back a contract(s) which extends past the 2009-10 season.

[Matches Malone]

1
Parker 31
Hill 17

2
Ginobili 27
Mason 20

3
Jefferson 31
Nocioni 18

4
Duncan 31
Blair 20
Nocioni 5

5
McDyess 27
Mahinmi 13

MB, do you have any inside info or are you just smoking something funny?
Quite a few guys in ST are going to shit their pants, if your wet dream become true.

[barbacoataco]

Sure, provided the Spurs want to take back a contract(s) which extends past the 2009-10 season.

If you release a player, and another team picks them up, aren't you off the hook for all or part of their salary against the cap? Or something like that.

[Marcus Bryant]

Nothing more than pure speculation. Spurs can offer the rebuilding Kings $13.5 mil in payroll reduction past the 2009-10 season and if they dealt Bonner, Finley, and Williams (and perhaps a pick or cash) the Kings could reduce their 2009-10 payroll by another $1.5 mil. If they negotiated a buyout with Finley and/or Bonner, they could potentially save more.

Obviously, Nocioni would be a great fit for the Spurs. As Sacto has hit a true rebuild, they might not mind cutting some salary. Of course, the Spurs would have to be willing to take on that contract themselves. With the rumors of the cap going even lower next year, they might balk at taking on such a contract and be content to let Finley and Bonner's contracts expire next summer and enjoy the payroll reduction themselves. But as we've seen so far this offseason, nothing is for certain. The Spurs are being aggressive and adding Nocioni would follow in that vein.

[RuffnReadyOzStyle]

Nice rundown Darkwaters. :tu


Ginobili should play around 25 but Pop won't be able to control himself so he'll probably end up around 28.

Yeah, sadly. It'd be okay if Manu only played half a game until march though, and then his minutes went up corresponding with SPAM, which hopefully we will see this year.

[poeticism707]

Nothing more than pure speculation. Spurs can offer the rebuilding Kings $13.5 mil in payroll reduction past the 2009-10 season and if they dealt Bonner, Finley, and Williams (and perhaps a pick or cash) the Kings could reduce their 2009-10 payroll by another $1.5 mil. If they negotiated a buyout with Finley and/or Bonner, they could potentially save more.

Obviously, Nocioni would be a great fit for the Spurs. As Sacto has hit a true rebuild, they might not mind cutting some salary. Of course, the Spurs would have to be willing to take on that contract themselves. With the rumors of the cap going even lower next year, they might balk at taking on such a contract and be content to let Finley and Bonner's contracts expire next summer and enjoy the payroll reduction themselves. But as we've seen so far this offseason, nothing is for certain. The Spurs are being aggressive and adding Nocioni would follow in that vein.

Not bad at all!

Great write up everyone!

It's tough to relegate minutes: so tough I won't even try, as some players are still proving themselves (Hairston, Ian, and Hill and Blair to a lesser extent), and some we just don't know what they'll bring yet (Haislip).

I like the idea of Nocioni, but I think the FO would wait until the season is underway, to access the talent on the roster now. The only way I see the FO jumping the gun, is for a true center, like Camby for example.

For once, it seems the Spurs have so much talent that it would be doing the roster an injustice to add any non-center before seeing the roster in action during the regular season.

But if it's Camby for role players available this summer, the FO doesn't even blink.

Great job alloting minutes, everyone!

Great and thoughtful post, Darkwaters!

[angelbelow]

I don't like Parker playing more than 33 minutes. I know hes young but the past two playoffs hes been exhausted. Now that we have more talent i say limit him a little bit more.

[stéphane]

Nice post.

I'd go with your prediction but I'm not sure Pop will not play Fin atleast 10mpg.
On another note, I'd really want to see Ian getting his rythm and taking some of Bonner's playing time.

[mudyez]

nice post...I like the minutes (but would prefer them tweaked a little like timvp said), but would give Finley some of the Wing minutes. I think he could be a contributor if hitting his shots...if not...bench him again!

but after all we should subtract some minutes for those last 3 spots...Haislip, Finley and maybe guys like Hairston, maybe McClinton and so on, at least will sniff some minutes

[hsxvvd]

:lmao When Pop starts Finley on opening night

[mudyez]

btw.: seeing that lineup, I think its no option to trade Bonner!
at this point, every team needs a 4 that can space the floor...especially if you have an inside presence like Timmy.

[mudyez]

:lmao When Pop starts Finley on opening night

that wont happen...but how about Bonner over Blair and McDyess?

[nkdlunch]

get Bonner out. Plus we need 12 man rotation during the season