pressurez
08-02-2009, 02:28 AM
1. Who will start at SG?
Manu has been shuffled between starter and 6th man more times than we've heard the word "twitter" this summer. Clearly he's earned the right to start. Clearly the bench is much stronger with him anchoring it. My best guess is with RJ and 'Dyess strengthening the starting group, Pop uses Manu (mostly) as a reserve. He's more productive when not "crowded" by other stars, and the otherwise young bench will need his stability. Realize if Manu were to start, despite the big investments made this summer by the F.O., the bench would have no player making more than $3.8M, most of them a piddling million or two. While there are a lot of bad contracts in the league, there's still a you-get-what-you-pay-for truth to the market (look at the Lakers bench of Odom, Walton, Vujacic, etc.).
2. Who will be the 13th man?
With 13 men expecting guaranteed money, someone's got to wear a suit. I'm assuming Hairston and Williams occupy spots 14 and 15. My guess here is Theo Ratliff. While there's hope Theo still has something to offer, he played limited minutes and put up a mere 1.9 ppg for a much lesser team last year. This is speculation, but it's quite possible he was brought in to mentor Mahinmi and serve as insurance for injury or flop. And if Mahinmi can turn it on, then the mentee may become the mentor, or as Tracy Jordan would say, the manatee become the mento. As for Haislip, my gut is telling me that his versatility as a 3/4, his big-time production in Europe, and his drive to prove something will land him the 12th spot.
3. Who will guard Kobe?
Does the defensive match-up of one opponent deserve so much attention? Yes. Clearly the path to the Finals goes through the Lakers, and with such high expectations for the Spurs this season, no one's going to remember how many regular season games were won - that is, it will all boil down to one series (um, and then the Finals). Pop and RC praised RJ for his ability to defend, but Richard will be forced to guard Artest or Odom due to their size. Mason will get some time on Kobe, maybe Hill will make it defense-by-committee, but ultimately it will come down to Manu stepping up on D. Not ideal for the Spurs, no longer do they have the luxury of Bowen to play Kobe-stopper. Even with the potential for an in-season trade, it will still boil down to Manu guarding Kobe. Why? If we pull off another trade (even $12M worth), it is extremely unlikely that we will acquire a wing that will bump Manu or RJ from closing out games, so expect to see Manu on Kobe when it matters.
4) Who will be our 8th and 9th men?
Hill and either Mason or Manu will be our 6th and 7th men. I've heard everyone else's name thrown out for the next spots in the rotation. But I expect Pop to go with Finley and Bonner here, and rightly so. Yes, the old faithful - remember, these were two of last year's STARTERS, now we're talking 8th and 9th spots. Let's start with Finley, remember the shape with which he came into last season? This is it for him, and he won't go down without a fight to be part of the push for the ring. He's simply better than Hairston. He's vastly more experienced, far more familiar with the system, and is one of the best shooters, um, period. As Duncan says, every time he lets it go I think it's going in. Also, Pop runs plays both mid-range and from the 3 for him (Hairston hasn't reached the point of having plays run for him, let alone getting out of Austin), so expect a professional and efficient 12-15 minutes a night from Mike. Next - Matt Bonner. As much as I'm psyched about Blair, he's still a rookie. While it seems everyone expects Pop to put Hill, Blair, Mahinmi, Haislip, and a Toro out as our second unit, I find this highly unlikely. Here's a cold-hard fact, without McDyess, Bonner would be our starting center again this year. So there's no need to throw a fit about him being our 9th man. He was one of the best 3 pt shooters in the NBA last year, he spreads the floor for Tim, and this is exactly the role he's built for - a hard-working 9th man who knows the system. Now, all that being said, let's hope a youngster (or two) has a break-out year and busts his way straight up the rotation!
5) Will the Spurs make another big move?
Certainly the Spurs are set up to take advantage of a team that by February realizes their season is going nowhere. Anyone looking to dump a star making between $5-12M could have a taker in the Spurs. I'll avoid the temptation of throwing out names that have littered this forum for the past couple of months. This question may trump all others and render their current answers irrelevant, but at this point it's too hypothetical to say much more. Well I couldn't help myself - one team to watch out for would be Detroit, if they disappoint and find themselves out of the playoff race (likely with improvements to Toronto and Washington), Rip or Tayshaun may not be part of their long term picture.
6) Who will be the Spurs' toughest competition in the West?
Aside from the Lakers of course. I'm going with the Mavs and Portland. Denver is still a team to be reckoned with, but I'm not a George Karl fan. I like the Marion pick-up for Dallas - with one substitution they can go from one of the biggest teams in the league to one of the smallest: Kidd, Howard, Marion, Dirk, and Dampier transforms to small-ball with Terry coming in for Damp. Although a real commitment to team ball from Gooden and Thomas may be asking too much. Portland will be a real threat if Miller helps Oden find his groove, and they have enough pieces for another strong trade mid-season.
7) Will the Spurs be able to guard mobile 4s?
It's not just that the league in general is shifting to mobile 4s, it's that our prime competitors are leading the way. Odom, Dirk, KMart, Aldridge, and DWest are all very athletic and have outside games. McDyess 8 years ago would have been a great weapon against these guys, let's hope his aging body is up to the task of slowing them down now. Blair and Bonner certainly aren't prototype defenders for mobile 4s, and Haislip has a lot to prove before he starts taking important minutes. Ultimately, I think McDyess's ability to bully these guys, his remnants of quickness, and the slower-paced half-court nature of the playoffs will pull us through.
8) What will be the biggest regret of the off-season?
Missing out on Rasheed? Losing Bruce or KT? Finley re-upping? Going for RJ over VC? Passing on Big Baby and AI? None of the above. Shouldn't be many regrets coming out of this summer, but one might be a slip of the tongue on RC's behalf. After drafting Blair, in an unusually elated and revealing moment, RC blurted out that Blair was an immediate 20-mpg guy. I don't think DeJuan or Spurs fans will forget this soon, particularly when cursing Bonner. By the end of the year, we may be so lucky as to see some 20-minute games logged by the rookie, but if his average is anywhere near that I'll personally ice his knees.
9) Who will be the most pleasant surprise for the Spurs?
Surprise is an interesting notion - it's all predicated on expectations. It's hard enough to come to consensus on a player's baseline level of expectation, let alone predict what he might become. And then there's the paradox of self-referential dynamic expectations, e.g., if you tell me Jack McClinton is most likely to exceed expectations, his baseline level of expectation creeps up by your mere suggestion. That being said, Jack McClinton is not the answer to our question. Fortunately, the Spurs are blessed with a number of other great candidates:
-DeJuan Blair falls from this list because of grandiose proclamations (by some in this forum) that he'll challenge Blake Griffin for ROY and the above-mentioned 20-mpg comment from Buford. I actually think Blair will be the best of our youngsters, but his baseline level of expectation has been raised too high.
-Hairston is another who hits the chopping block early for me. Malik will have to wait until next year, as for now the wing positions are cramped with Manu, Mason, RJ, and Finley (and Haislip and Williams).
-Haislip is a good candidate as he's certainly under the radar with regards to national attention, and he fills a niche (3/4 forward) lacking on the rest of the roster.
-Marcus Williams' baseline level of expectation is low as he missed out on the buzz of Summer League, and he holds a special advantage over Hairston (and Finley): he may be able to play some point-forward (see the 11 assists in his massive triple-double with the Toros). Considering we're slim at back-up PG, this skill might earn him some PT. So it's Williams' (and Haislip's) ability to play multiple positions that gives them the leg up on Hairston.
-Mahinmi has to be the guy the Spurs F.O. would most like to see exceed expectations. Me too. Problem is all young players make mistakes. The more minutes they play the sooner they get through making those mistakes. But as the Spurs push for the title, how willing will they be to let Ian make those mistakes? Bringing in Ratliff may signify limited patience for youth. What Ian needs to do to exceed expectations is show us he can play a team game on both ends of the floor - set good picks, pass, play help-defense, and I don't know that he's mature enough to surprise us this year.
-George Hill surprised me in Summer League. The one play in which he dribbled through a double-team and skied for a dunk was spectacular. His handle and confidence was far advanced compared to last year. I think he's improved every aspect of his game. The last two games of Summer League were a bit concerning, but I think George will have a really solid year, but not more surprising than...
-Manu. He's been a relatively quiet superstar nationally, and after last year's injury for many he's essentially a forgotten factor. Quite simply, if he makes the all-star team he will have exceeded expectations. Here's why we should be excited: Manu is 100% healthy, he's tearing all of his remaining hair out to get back on the court, we know how competitive he is with the prospect of a title on the line, and he's in a contract year (even Manu is susceptible to this carrot). What I'm most pumped about for this season is seeing the return of Manu and his best season yet.
10. Will the Spurs stay healthy?
Last but not least, the most important question of all, we can only cross our fingers...
Manu has been shuffled between starter and 6th man more times than we've heard the word "twitter" this summer. Clearly he's earned the right to start. Clearly the bench is much stronger with him anchoring it. My best guess is with RJ and 'Dyess strengthening the starting group, Pop uses Manu (mostly) as a reserve. He's more productive when not "crowded" by other stars, and the otherwise young bench will need his stability. Realize if Manu were to start, despite the big investments made this summer by the F.O., the bench would have no player making more than $3.8M, most of them a piddling million or two. While there are a lot of bad contracts in the league, there's still a you-get-what-you-pay-for truth to the market (look at the Lakers bench of Odom, Walton, Vujacic, etc.).
2. Who will be the 13th man?
With 13 men expecting guaranteed money, someone's got to wear a suit. I'm assuming Hairston and Williams occupy spots 14 and 15. My guess here is Theo Ratliff. While there's hope Theo still has something to offer, he played limited minutes and put up a mere 1.9 ppg for a much lesser team last year. This is speculation, but it's quite possible he was brought in to mentor Mahinmi and serve as insurance for injury or flop. And if Mahinmi can turn it on, then the mentee may become the mentor, or as Tracy Jordan would say, the manatee become the mento. As for Haislip, my gut is telling me that his versatility as a 3/4, his big-time production in Europe, and his drive to prove something will land him the 12th spot.
3. Who will guard Kobe?
Does the defensive match-up of one opponent deserve so much attention? Yes. Clearly the path to the Finals goes through the Lakers, and with such high expectations for the Spurs this season, no one's going to remember how many regular season games were won - that is, it will all boil down to one series (um, and then the Finals). Pop and RC praised RJ for his ability to defend, but Richard will be forced to guard Artest or Odom due to their size. Mason will get some time on Kobe, maybe Hill will make it defense-by-committee, but ultimately it will come down to Manu stepping up on D. Not ideal for the Spurs, no longer do they have the luxury of Bowen to play Kobe-stopper. Even with the potential for an in-season trade, it will still boil down to Manu guarding Kobe. Why? If we pull off another trade (even $12M worth), it is extremely unlikely that we will acquire a wing that will bump Manu or RJ from closing out games, so expect to see Manu on Kobe when it matters.
4) Who will be our 8th and 9th men?
Hill and either Mason or Manu will be our 6th and 7th men. I've heard everyone else's name thrown out for the next spots in the rotation. But I expect Pop to go with Finley and Bonner here, and rightly so. Yes, the old faithful - remember, these were two of last year's STARTERS, now we're talking 8th and 9th spots. Let's start with Finley, remember the shape with which he came into last season? This is it for him, and he won't go down without a fight to be part of the push for the ring. He's simply better than Hairston. He's vastly more experienced, far more familiar with the system, and is one of the best shooters, um, period. As Duncan says, every time he lets it go I think it's going in. Also, Pop runs plays both mid-range and from the 3 for him (Hairston hasn't reached the point of having plays run for him, let alone getting out of Austin), so expect a professional and efficient 12-15 minutes a night from Mike. Next - Matt Bonner. As much as I'm psyched about Blair, he's still a rookie. While it seems everyone expects Pop to put Hill, Blair, Mahinmi, Haislip, and a Toro out as our second unit, I find this highly unlikely. Here's a cold-hard fact, without McDyess, Bonner would be our starting center again this year. So there's no need to throw a fit about him being our 9th man. He was one of the best 3 pt shooters in the NBA last year, he spreads the floor for Tim, and this is exactly the role he's built for - a hard-working 9th man who knows the system. Now, all that being said, let's hope a youngster (or two) has a break-out year and busts his way straight up the rotation!
5) Will the Spurs make another big move?
Certainly the Spurs are set up to take advantage of a team that by February realizes their season is going nowhere. Anyone looking to dump a star making between $5-12M could have a taker in the Spurs. I'll avoid the temptation of throwing out names that have littered this forum for the past couple of months. This question may trump all others and render their current answers irrelevant, but at this point it's too hypothetical to say much more. Well I couldn't help myself - one team to watch out for would be Detroit, if they disappoint and find themselves out of the playoff race (likely with improvements to Toronto and Washington), Rip or Tayshaun may not be part of their long term picture.
6) Who will be the Spurs' toughest competition in the West?
Aside from the Lakers of course. I'm going with the Mavs and Portland. Denver is still a team to be reckoned with, but I'm not a George Karl fan. I like the Marion pick-up for Dallas - with one substitution they can go from one of the biggest teams in the league to one of the smallest: Kidd, Howard, Marion, Dirk, and Dampier transforms to small-ball with Terry coming in for Damp. Although a real commitment to team ball from Gooden and Thomas may be asking too much. Portland will be a real threat if Miller helps Oden find his groove, and they have enough pieces for another strong trade mid-season.
7) Will the Spurs be able to guard mobile 4s?
It's not just that the league in general is shifting to mobile 4s, it's that our prime competitors are leading the way. Odom, Dirk, KMart, Aldridge, and DWest are all very athletic and have outside games. McDyess 8 years ago would have been a great weapon against these guys, let's hope his aging body is up to the task of slowing them down now. Blair and Bonner certainly aren't prototype defenders for mobile 4s, and Haislip has a lot to prove before he starts taking important minutes. Ultimately, I think McDyess's ability to bully these guys, his remnants of quickness, and the slower-paced half-court nature of the playoffs will pull us through.
8) What will be the biggest regret of the off-season?
Missing out on Rasheed? Losing Bruce or KT? Finley re-upping? Going for RJ over VC? Passing on Big Baby and AI? None of the above. Shouldn't be many regrets coming out of this summer, but one might be a slip of the tongue on RC's behalf. After drafting Blair, in an unusually elated and revealing moment, RC blurted out that Blair was an immediate 20-mpg guy. I don't think DeJuan or Spurs fans will forget this soon, particularly when cursing Bonner. By the end of the year, we may be so lucky as to see some 20-minute games logged by the rookie, but if his average is anywhere near that I'll personally ice his knees.
9) Who will be the most pleasant surprise for the Spurs?
Surprise is an interesting notion - it's all predicated on expectations. It's hard enough to come to consensus on a player's baseline level of expectation, let alone predict what he might become. And then there's the paradox of self-referential dynamic expectations, e.g., if you tell me Jack McClinton is most likely to exceed expectations, his baseline level of expectation creeps up by your mere suggestion. That being said, Jack McClinton is not the answer to our question. Fortunately, the Spurs are blessed with a number of other great candidates:
-DeJuan Blair falls from this list because of grandiose proclamations (by some in this forum) that he'll challenge Blake Griffin for ROY and the above-mentioned 20-mpg comment from Buford. I actually think Blair will be the best of our youngsters, but his baseline level of expectation has been raised too high.
-Hairston is another who hits the chopping block early for me. Malik will have to wait until next year, as for now the wing positions are cramped with Manu, Mason, RJ, and Finley (and Haislip and Williams).
-Haislip is a good candidate as he's certainly under the radar with regards to national attention, and he fills a niche (3/4 forward) lacking on the rest of the roster.
-Marcus Williams' baseline level of expectation is low as he missed out on the buzz of Summer League, and he holds a special advantage over Hairston (and Finley): he may be able to play some point-forward (see the 11 assists in his massive triple-double with the Toros). Considering we're slim at back-up PG, this skill might earn him some PT. So it's Williams' (and Haislip's) ability to play multiple positions that gives them the leg up on Hairston.
-Mahinmi has to be the guy the Spurs F.O. would most like to see exceed expectations. Me too. Problem is all young players make mistakes. The more minutes they play the sooner they get through making those mistakes. But as the Spurs push for the title, how willing will they be to let Ian make those mistakes? Bringing in Ratliff may signify limited patience for youth. What Ian needs to do to exceed expectations is show us he can play a team game on both ends of the floor - set good picks, pass, play help-defense, and I don't know that he's mature enough to surprise us this year.
-George Hill surprised me in Summer League. The one play in which he dribbled through a double-team and skied for a dunk was spectacular. His handle and confidence was far advanced compared to last year. I think he's improved every aspect of his game. The last two games of Summer League were a bit concerning, but I think George will have a really solid year, but not more surprising than...
-Manu. He's been a relatively quiet superstar nationally, and after last year's injury for many he's essentially a forgotten factor. Quite simply, if he makes the all-star team he will have exceeded expectations. Here's why we should be excited: Manu is 100% healthy, he's tearing all of his remaining hair out to get back on the court, we know how competitive he is with the prospect of a title on the line, and he's in a contract year (even Manu is susceptible to this carrot). What I'm most pumped about for this season is seeing the return of Manu and his best season yet.
10. Will the Spurs stay healthy?
Last but not least, the most important question of all, we can only cross our fingers...