Article: What’s Left in RJ’s Tank?

[2Cleva]

What’s Left in RJ’s Tank?
Posted by Neil Paine on August 4, 2009

Finishing out our series on big-name veterans who switched teams this summer, we turn to Richard Jefferson, acquired by the San Antonio Spurs in a predraft trade for Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas. Jefferson is not quite as old as the other guys we profiled in this series — at 29, he’s still theoretically hanging on to the tail end of his prime — but just as with Shaq, VC, and ‘Sheed, you get the distinct feeling when you look at RJ’s career numbers that his best days have come and gone.

Is that feeling true, though? Is RJ done as a star? Or was he ever even a star in the first place? And what can the Spurs expect to get from him going forward? First, check out Jefferson’s advanced numbers:


Year Ag Tm Ht Pos G Min trORtg %Poss trDRtg Stat+/- OWS DWS WS
2002 21 NJN 79 F 79 1917 107.9 18.8 104.3 -0.19 1.8 2.9 4.7
2003 22 NJN 79 F 80 2878 115.8 19.5 104.0 1.06 5.5 4.5 9.9
2004 23 NJN 79 F 82 3133 115.3 22.2 105.0 1.85 6.5 4.4 10.9
2005 24 NJN 79 F 33 1355 102.4 27.8 105.9 0.55 0.6 1.8 2.4
2006 25 NJN 79 F 78 3059 118.7 21.7 105.6 2.64 7.5 4.1 11.6
2007 26 NJN 79 F 55 1956 107.5 21.2 110.9 -1.93 1.9 1.4 3.4
2008 27 NJN 79 F 82 3200 112.5 24.9 113.0 0.26 6.1 1.5 7.5
2009 28 MIL 79 F 82 2939 109.9 23.3 110.0 0.34 4.2 2.5 6.7
2010 29 SAS 79 F Proj 0.03

So, looking at Jefferson’s career stats, we see that he was scarcely ever a “star” in the first place, certainly not in the way Carter and O’Neal were stars. He has had two very good seasons to his name — 2004, when he ranked 10th in Win Shares, and 2006, when he posted a career-best 11.6 WS. And in each case, he was actually far from the top banana on the team: the ‘04 Nets saw both Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin use a higher percentage of possessions when on the floor than RJ, and in ‘06 he was well behind Carter in Poss% and barely ahead of Kidd and Nenad Krstic. So we know Jefferson was never really cut out to be a star player; even last year with Milwaukee, a team that happened to be missing Michael Redd for most of the year, he was 3rd in Poss% behind Charlie Villanueva and Ramon Sessions.

Fortunately, the Spurs aren’t asking Jefferson to be a star, a second option, or even the 3rd banana on the team (he’ll be firmly ensconced behind Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker in the team’s pecking order). And that’s a good thing for everyone, because we’ve already established that RJ plays his best when he isn’t the focal point of the offense; instead, he thrives when he’s able to get chances in transition, attack the basket, draw fouls, and keep the D honest with his serviceable jumper. Also, playing with strong passing PGs in Kidd and Sessions has helped Jefferson’s efficiency in the past, so it’s nice that he’ll be suiting up with another top-flight creator at the point in Parker. That said, he’ll be expected to slide into a role that’s a more advanced version of the Michael Finley (”make some shots and don’t turn the ball over”) or Bruce Bowen (”play tough/dirty D and stand around in the corner waiting for a 3 on offense”) style we’ve been seeing from the Spurs at SF in recent years. Jefferson’s a far better offensive option than either of those two, even if he is past his prime.

So it’s a clear upgrade from Finley/Bowen on offense, to be sure. But the real issue is how effectively the Spurs will be able to integrate Jefferson into their defensive concept. Once upon a time, RJ was a very good defender, a guy who could neutralize the opponent’s top wing scorer and still contribute meaningfully at the other end of the floor. Unfortunately, one needs to look no further than his defensive on/off-court numbers to see the decline in Jefferson’s performance since 2005-06. That year, the Nets’ D was a full 1.1 points/100 poss. better when RJ was in the game, and as a result he was one of the league’s best all-around SFs. But after suffering injuries to both ankles in 2007, Jefferson has not been the same on defense: the Nets’ D was 1.4 pts/100 worse with him in the game that year, a staggering 5.6 pts/100 worse in ‘08, and 0.4 pts/100 worse last year in Milwaukee. It’s true that neither the Nets nor the Bucks’ situation has been the most inspiring over the past few seasons, so some have written off RJ’s defensive decline as simply a loss of interest. But I say it’s more than that — he’s noticably less nimble on his feet since the injuries, and I think he’s nowhere near either Bowen or the 2006 version of himself as a defender anymore. He’s certainly better than Finley, who has completely fallen off the face of the planet defensively in recent years, but whether Jefferson will be able to do a passable Bowen impression on D will determine to a great extent how successful his stay with San Antonio will be.

The bottom line is that Jefferson is a nice, efficient offensive player when he’s not the focal point and he has a good passing PG to set him up, and luckily the Spurs pass on both counts, so he’ll be a boon to a San Antonio offense that’s been merely average for a few years now. The real question, though, is how much he has left in the tank defensively, and whether he can reclaim his pre-injury form at that end. With Bowen gone and Finley on his last legs, the Spurs need a bounceback performance from Jefferson on D for this trade to truly pay big dividends.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3122

[xtremesteven33]

Jefferson >>>> Bowen/Finley/Udoka-combined

[rayray2k8]

Wow, they actually think he's old at 29??
So the whole point of the article was that the spurs will miss Bowen this upcoming season, despite him
being 38? That doesn't make sense at all. :lol
Thanks anyway.

[rayray2k8]

Jefferson >>>> Bowen/Finley/Udoka-combined

Actually, the way some of the Bowen loyalist have been acting, they would rank it like this

Udoka<<Finely<<<<< Jefferson <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<Bowen.
Yeah, whatever. :rolleyes

[sandman]

Everyone wants to be a Hollinger these days...

[Agloco]

:rolleyes:rolleyes:rolleyes

Consider the sources: Both the writer and the OP who dredged this up from the depths of the River of Insecurity.

[ashbeeigh]

wow. I'm clearly almost over the hill at 25. :rolleyes

How many days is it until the season starts?

[2Cleva]

:rolleyes:rolleyes:rolleyes

Consider the sources: Both the writer and the OP who dredged this up from the depths of the River of Insecurity.

:lol

And I was trying to make you Spurs fans feel good.

Thought it was a interesting read. No more, no less.

Some are just way too sensitive.

[Fabbs]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=3122
Article is basically very truthful, Defensive SpurFan not realizing it may take more then just Jefferson to overcome you Lakers with your b.s. Collusion gift of Gasol, your refs and Phils >>>>> Popleyvich.

I'm just as interested in seeing how the human bowling ball rookie Blair does as I am any potential offensive increase at the 3 from Jefferson.

[Riverwalkman]

Is the title somewhat inappropriate? You can say "What’s Left in Shaq’s Tank" or "What’s Left in Kidd’s Tank", but for RJ, he is just in his prime. 28 and 29 is the best age for a pro basketball player, Michael Jordan started to get rings at that age.

[rjv]

nothing like basement blogging expertise.

[Duncan2177]

Neil Paine is a idiot.

[xtremesteven33]

I cant wait to see some fast break points now...Parker, Manu and Jefferson running the break :hungry:

[Muser]

Jefferson was 1st/2nd option last year, when you put more effort into offense you're not going to have enough left in the tank to play good D. Bowen has never been an offensive option apart from the 3, hence why he could use all his energy on D.

Jefferson as the 3rd/4th option on offense will give him much more energy to use on D.

Also :lmao at the writer even contemplating if this was a good deal for the spurs.

[benefactor]

Everyone wants to be a Hollinger these days...
I got that feeling off the article too.

[NFGIII]

RJ will pay dividends for the Spurs. He will fit in as the 3rd option on the first team very well IMO. From everything that I've read he thrives at that position and really doesn't want to be the star. That's perfect for what we need at this point.

As for his D that is all relative. He is a major upgrade over Finley and with TD covering his back things will be better on D. It's amazing what a player like TD can do to other people's D. Once he learns the system I think most will be very happy with the results.

As for the writer stating that RJ's D will be the difference maker I disagree. The Spurs last year were 2nd in the league in points allowed and I think in the middle of the pack (18th IIRC) in FG%. With RJ taking Finley's place I see those #'s getting better as well as the O producing more. This will lead to more pressure being placed on the opposing teams to keep up. I can see games where the other team is jacking up 3's in order to get back into the game. Since 3 pt % is lower the regular FG% that would lead me to believe our FG% ranking will improve dramatically.

[hater]

Fortunately, the Spurs aren’t asking Jefferson to be a star, a second option, or even the 3rd banana on the team (he’ll be firmly ensconced behind Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, and Tony Parker in the team’s pecking order).

Bingo

[duhoh]

wow what an idiotic article

[ChumpDumper]

Damn, lakerfans are afraid.

[spurs_fan_in_exile]

I'm just glad that there's finally a thread discussing what's in his tank and not in his tailpipe.

[timvp]

The article isn't that horrible. But the point he's missing is that with less responsibility on the offensive end, Jefferson will be able to dedicate more of his energy to the defensive end. That should allow Jefferson's defense to improve.

Jefferson was never going to be as good as Bowen defensively. As long as he's a significant upgrade over Finley, that]s about all that can expected.

[DBMethos]

Defense: Bowen>RJ>>>Finley
Offense: RJ>>>>>>>Finley>Bowen

I'd say we're in good shape.

[Blackjack]

The real question, though, is how much he has left in the tank defensively, and whether he can reclaim his pre-injury form at that end. With Bowen gone and Finley on his last legs, the Spurs need a bounceback performance from Jefferson on D for this trade to truly pay big dividends.

That's a true statement, if the Spurs' intentions are to be going about business as usual; which is a pretty good possibility.

However, if the Spurs' philosophy has been tweaked and/or evolved into a higher tempo offense with Parker becoming more and more the focal point of the offense, the equation and what Spurs fans have come to expect from their small-forward could very well change. (At least to some degree.)

Jefferson is literally at the peak of his career, his athleticism isn't at it's peak but his mental and physical abilities are at their highest points in which they'll both meet, so the comparisons of Shaq and Carter are pretty ridiculous.

If the Spurs are looking to beat the Lakers using upgraded personnel in the same way they used lesser talent in the past, I'd have my reservations.

Jefferson isn't going to be the Bowen of yesteryear to match up with Kobe, and with Odom and Artest (who I'm still skeptical will fit as seamlessly as some like to assume) they present the possibility of a boat taking on water that needs more patches than available.

As great as an offseason the Spurs have had, and it's definitely been great, if the Spurs don't stray from being the counter-puncher and don't start to dictate the terms of the game on offense and defense, it could very well be all for not.

The way I see it, the Spurs need an elite defender at the wing who can essentially play Bowen to Jefferson's Jackson, of '03, or they've got to run an offense and more opportunistic defense that sees more gains than losses against a team like the Lakers.

Finding someone to play the Bowen role, both in terms of minutes and approximate defensive ability, isn't a likely proposition, so hopefully Pop and the staff find the best way to utilize the the abilities of the newly acquired and younger, developing players with roles that allow them to thrive, not as much conform.

[Fabbs]

One can only hope RJ will take the ball to the rack on a regular basis. Altho once a game would be more then Finley and Boner combined. :depressed

Hopefully a regular drive to the rack by the 3 position will return and end the wussified Stand n Veg 3pt chucking pussy team we have become under PopaFinley.

[Fabbs]

^^ anyone follow Jefferson closely both as a Net and a Buck?

How often did he take the ball towards the rack?

[angelbelow]

RJ is not doubt an instant upgrade at our 3 position. Just him and Finley and a project like Hairston make this the deepest 3 spot for us since Sean.

[Sugar]

Sugar

You called, honey? I have lots left for you after dealing with Leeroy (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/3543414/Man-jailed-for-having-sex-with-a-horse.html).

[Malice]

Nice try jack off. Next.

[HarlemHeat37]

As I've been saying since the trade, it's impossible to judge his current ability defensively..

there's 2 factors..

yes, he has lost some athleticism, which has affected his lateral movement defensively..but the season he had the injury was also the year where he had the biggest offensive responsibility of his career, where he had to be the main option in New Jersey along with Vince..the year after was in Milwaukee, where he had to be the #1 option for most of the year with injuries to Redd and Bogut..

naturally, when your offensive responsibility is diminished, you'll have more energy that you can use towards other aspects of the game, defense in this case..

impossible to judge right now, because the injury problems and the responsibility factor happened at the exact same time..we'll see how he looks when he actually steps on the court as a Spur..it'll be the first time he's a 3rd or 4th option since his 2nd or 3rd last year in Jersey..

[SpurCharger]

Since When Are Players best years Behind them at 29?? I can See If he had like 2 or 3 Knee Surgerys.... but the Guy has Been Healthy, and His Better Years Should be Now.

[ffadicted]

28 is the new 30 in the NBA

[wildbill2u]

Anyone ready for this off season with all the BS articles to be over?

[The_Worlds_finest]

Tony parker is old

[Fabbs]

Anyone ready for this off season with all the BS articles to be over?
I'm ready for someone, anyone with accurate info as to how often Richard Jefferson took the ball to the rack.

[Obstructed_View]

damn, lakerfans are afraid.

qft.

[lotr1trekkie]

Who is Neil Paine? Sub the names "Artest or Odom" for Jefferson and the article rings equallly true. Both Artest and Odom are past their primes. Fischer--way past. I thnk Bynum has acturally reached his prime. As long as Kobe can maintain his level of play this team will be tough to beat. "Swipe the leg!"

[Obstructed_View]

Who is Neil Paine? Sub the names "Artest or Odom" for Jefferson and the article rings equallly true. Both Artest and Odom are past their primes. Fischer--way past. I thnk Bynum has acturally reached his prime. As long as Kobe can maintain his level of play this team will be tough to beat. "Swipe the leg!"

If you sub one of those names, then it's not an article talking up the Lakers, and will not be printed.

[spursfan1000]

Damn what's with this.
Why would people be questioning how much he has in the tank if he's only 29? he has more than enough, it's not even like we need that much from him. He would be the 3rd or 4th option on the team.

[qiuyizeng]

The article isn't that horrible. But the point he's missing is that with less responsibility on the offensive end, Jefferson will be able to dedicate more of his energy to the defensive end. That should allow Jefferson's defense to improve.

Jefferson was never going to be as good as Bowen defensively. As long as he's a significant upgrade over Finley, that]s about all that can expected.
yup,i think so!

[Sean Cagney]

GOOD LORD throw in the towel on him already at 29? You have to be f in kidding me, stupid article.

[Danny.Zhu]

Defense: Bowen>RJ>>>Finley
Offense: RJ>>>>>>>Finley>Bowen

I'd say we're in good shape.

Agree the first part.

On the second part, I'm still not convinced to be that optimistic.

[raspsa]

I think after all the recent controversy, RJ can't wait to get back to playing BB. So he's definitely motivated. Physically, he's fine. By this point in his carreer, he's learned to play smarter and conserve his body. His perimeter game is more prominent though he can still slash to the rim or run the break if the opportunity presents itself. He fits the Spurs needs like a glove.

[Fabbs]

I'm ready for someone, anyone with accurate info as to how often Richard Jefferson took the ball to the rack.


He didn't take it to the rack or inside very often with Milwaukee, but it doesn't appear to have anything to do with injuries or loss of athleticism, since he had the same injuries during his last year in NJ, and he still took it inside as much as he had in the previous years before the injuries..he's definitely different than his younger years though..he's clearly lost some athleticism from his days of participating in the dunk contest and running all the time with Kidd and Martin, but his jumper has significantly gotten better..

You or anyone got time and the dvd of 2003? Did he take it to the rack vs the Spurs?



BTW, even if you forget all this..we still got him for Bruce Bowen, it's not like we gave anything up...
blasphemy!

[Rogue]

I think you're giving finley a bit too much credit, Sean Elliott is a better defender than Mike right now.

It is a shame. At the beginning of last pre-season we though Finley could be as good as his Mavs days. The articles hyping how he was in shape like a 29 year old and some of the people I talked to were just wow'd at how good he looked. Then when it came to the rgular season he showed some flashes early, but nothing really. How often did he get lit up on by average scorers? Didn't John Salmons have like a 40 point game on him earlier this season? Sure Salmons had a very good season, but that was double his scoring average.
Actually Fin deserves more credit than what LJ gives him. With Jefferson playing as the starting SF and Mason at the 2, Fin will be resting on the bench during the first tense minutes of the game, and steps up into the game to give Jefferson some time for rest. Last season, Fin was the starting SF and played 30minutes or some night in and night out, averaging about 10 points per game. However, some Spurs fans kept throwing bullcrap blames onto this veteran while ignoring the inactivity of Bruce who was around the same edge with Fin in terms of age.

[hater]

Agree the first part.

On the second part, I'm still not convinced to be that optimistic.

R u serius??? RJ averaged 20ppg last year. He is easily >>>>>>> Finley/Bowen offensively

[cherylsteele]

Whoever wrote the article must have just seen:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/d/da/Logans_run_movie_poster.jpg

[Agloco]

:lol

And I was trying to make you Spurs fans feel good.

Thought it was a interesting read. No more, no less.

Some are just way too sensitive.

Thanks for the "Emotional Head".....

At least I know where to go when I need some now.

[peskypesky]

wow what an idiotic article

:toast

[manufor3]

Pretty good mix of rj (starts to get good around the 1:05 mark)
j-qi5kWrETY

[z0sa]

While the article is written well, its point thoroughly worked, and its main idea kept in tact even til the end, there couldn't be a worse premise. The guy has played every game for 2 straight seasons, his best since his 2nd-3rd seasons, while averaging 38 MPG; these alone severely quake and split the ground which the argument rests on. The fact he's 29, generally considered within an NBA player's prime, also helps to dispel the author's misgivings.

[spursfaninla]

This article is basically stupid. There is no good reason to think RJ is on the downside...

[peskypesky]

While the article is written well, its point thoroughly worked, and its main idea kept in tact even til the end, there couldn't be a worse premise. The guy has played every game for 2 straight seasons, his best since his 2nd-3rd seasons, while averaging 38 MPG; these alone severely quake and split the ground which the argument rests on. The fact he's 29, generally considered within an NBA player's prime, also helps to dispel the author's misgivings.

exactly. stupid premise for an article. what's his next article going to be, "Should basketballs be made of rock?". and then eight paragraphs of him explaining why it wouldn't work?

[barbacoataco]

I think RJ will be better than epected on defense. I also think/hope that either Hill or Hairston will wind up being a defensive plus on the perimeter. Also there is the possibility that McDyess, Haislip or Mahinmi will be able to defend some of the bigger forwards like Dirk or West that Bowen used to sometimes guard.

[mystargtr34]

This article really makes me question whether replacing Michael Finley and Ime Udoka with Richard Jefferson will improve the team at all.

When's this guy's article coming out about McDyess' win shares decreasing over the past 3 years.

Maybe Bonner > McDyess.

[pad300]

I'm ready for someone, anyone with accurate info as to how often Richard Jefferson took the ball to the rack.

From 82games.com

Player, % of shots close range shots, % of Dunks, Overall % of inside shots
Jefferson, 22%, 5%, 27%
Finley, 8%, 1%, 10%
Bowen, 14%, 1%, 15%

Yes, Bowen was more active near the basket than Finley was (offensively), and Jefferson was much more so (twice as big a percentage as Bowen, and 3 times as much as Finley). Bowen also shot a better percentage than Finley (EFG% .535 to .532), which is why some of us were so unhappy with Pop's mancrush on Finley. If the FO is smart, they will move Fin this offseason, just because Pop's usual judgement is going to shit with regards to this tradeoff.


Actually Fin deserves more credit than what LJ gives him. With Jefferson playing as the starting SF and Mason at the 2, Fin will be resting on the bench during the first tense minutes of the game, and steps up into the game to give Jefferson some time for rest. Last season, Fin was the starting SF and played 30minutes or some night in and night out, averaging about 10 points per game. However, some Spurs fans kept throwing bullcrap blames onto this veteran while ignoring the inactivity of Bruce who was around the same edge with Fin in terms of age.

1) FIn off the bench has been tried repeatedly. Unfortunately, Fin is absolute crap coming off the bench. This has been shown repeatedly when he was coming off the bench behind Barry or Manu (when we were trying to put Manu in the starting lineup...).
2) as the stats above show, Bruce is both more active on the offensive end. Bruce also puts far more effort in on the defensive end... You like Fin from his Dallas days, fine by me, but if I have to make a choice between Fin and Bruce right now, I take Bruce 7 days a week and twice on Sundays. This crap you are posting about Bowen's inactivity is weaksauce.

[Fabbs]

Excellent pad300.

Refreshing to see competence.