ambchang
08-10-2009, 11:26 AM
So after comparing Shaq and Duncan through their production against the Nets in 02 and 03 Finals (http://spurstalk.com/forums/showthread.php?t=132810), respectively, by taking a normalized view of their offensive and defensive production against two very similar teams, I have decided to perform a similar analysis; this time, through the Pistons.
The Lakers played the Pistons in the 04 Finals, and was disposed with little resistance by the Pistons despite being heavy favourites.
In the 05 Finals, the Spurs were slight favourites over the Pistons. After two blowout wins against the Pistons, the Spurs were in turn blown out by the Pistons, with a larger margin, in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 was a classic OT that will live for the ages, and Games 6 and 7 were tightly contested games with the greatest stars shining the brightest.
First off, I will never ever understand why the Spurs were viewed as a low scoring, boring team. The Lakers averaged 81.8 ppg against the Pistons in the 04 Finals, while the Spurs averaged 84.86 ppg. And if you think watching Kobe Bryant jacking up bad shot after bad shot, and seeing Karl Malone limping around at his old age is more exciting than watching Ginobili drive the lane for contested dunks over 3 defenders or Duncan drawing in four defenders and have the ball rotate around the perimeter for an open shot, then you and I have very different basketball tastes.
Anyways, back to the comparisons … While Shaq was largely viewed as over the hill starting 04 due to his decline in points in the regular season and the playoffs, it was simply an increased effort to shift the offense to Kobe Bryant, and the additions of Malone and Payton that caused a drop in Shaq’s touches and shots.
At the same time, Duncan was playing on two bum ankles, so while the reasons are different, we are still looking at two of the best not playing at their absolute peaks.
A reminder that this is not to say Duncan>Shaq or vice versa, it is merely an analysis to compare how the two inseparable giants performed during the Finals against similar opponents.
Offense
No surprises here, Shaq scored more and had a higher level of efficiency. Shaq scored 26.6 ppg on 63.1% shooting, while Duncan scored 20.6ppg on 43.4% shooting. Duncan also only averaged 0.5 assists per game more than Shaq did. The pace of the two series were also eerily similar, and it showed that the Lakers were being forced to play at the Pistons pace.
Shaq scored 32.52% of the Lakers points, and 15.41% of all available points (total points of both teams), while Duncan was 24.24% and 11.99%. Once assists were factored in, Shaq was directly responsible for 36.43% Lakers offense, while Duncan was responsible for 29.29% of the Spurs offense. This came as a slight surprise to me as Shaq really had to “compete” with his supporting casts (Kobe, Malone) for shots, while Duncan only had Ginobili to lessen the offensive load.
All in all, Shaq trumps Duncan in terms of his offensive value to their respective teams by almost 25% on offensive production.
Defense
Duncan averaged 14.14 rebounds and 2.14 blks vs. the Pistons, while Shaq had 10.8 rebounds and only 0.6 blks per game vs. the Pistons. The most telling number is that the Pistons averaged only 86.71 ppg vs. the Spurs with Duncan as the Spurs focal point on defense, while the 04 Pistons average 90.8 ppg (on less shots) vs. the Lakers and Shaq.
In terms of normalized numbers, Duncan grabbed 17.1% of all available rebounds, while Shaq managed 12.98%, this translates to a difference of about a 30% difference in rebounding production on their respective teams.
With regards to blocked shots, there really is no comparison. Duncan blocked 2.72% of all available Pistons shots (2.14 blks per game vs. 78.71 FGA by the Pistons over the 7 games), while Shaq only blocked 0.82% of the Pistons shots (0.6 blks on 73.2 FGA by the Pistons). This means that Duncan is more than 230% better at blocking Pistons shots than Shaq is, which is really quite a surprise.
Conclusion
Once again, while Shaq is better than Duncan on offense, Duncan was better than Shaq on defense (rebounding and blks) by a wider margin. This is very consistent with the findings against the Nets as well, and once again showed that the peaks of these two players are a lot closer than what people perceive to be.
Personal Opinion
I have always wondered why Shaq was viewed as one of the most dominant players of all time. His numbers, while great, are not better than those of Wilt, Kareem, Hakeem, Jordan, Bird or Magic. He “only” has 1 MVP (mostly due to questionable voting), one scoring title (mostly due to him pacing himself during the regular season), and no rebounding or block shot titles.
Then this dawned on me.
Shaq has one way of doing things. You just know what he does, he posts you up, and dunks over you, but there was absolutely no way you could stop him.
A player like Duncan, on the other hand, has a more varied arsenal. You can take away certain aspects of Duncan’s offense, but he is going to counter you with another move that would render your previous efforts useless. Some people see this as evidence that Duncan could be stopped while Shaq couldn’t, without looking at a larger picture and realizing that the end result is that Duncan, either himself or through a teammate, just broke down your defense.
Then of course there is a guy like Jordan, who has a large offensive arsenal and he can kill you with each and every one of them whenever he likes.
The Lakers played the Pistons in the 04 Finals, and was disposed with little resistance by the Pistons despite being heavy favourites.
In the 05 Finals, the Spurs were slight favourites over the Pistons. After two blowout wins against the Pistons, the Spurs were in turn blown out by the Pistons, with a larger margin, in Games 3 and 4. Game 5 was a classic OT that will live for the ages, and Games 6 and 7 were tightly contested games with the greatest stars shining the brightest.
First off, I will never ever understand why the Spurs were viewed as a low scoring, boring team. The Lakers averaged 81.8 ppg against the Pistons in the 04 Finals, while the Spurs averaged 84.86 ppg. And if you think watching Kobe Bryant jacking up bad shot after bad shot, and seeing Karl Malone limping around at his old age is more exciting than watching Ginobili drive the lane for contested dunks over 3 defenders or Duncan drawing in four defenders and have the ball rotate around the perimeter for an open shot, then you and I have very different basketball tastes.
Anyways, back to the comparisons … While Shaq was largely viewed as over the hill starting 04 due to his decline in points in the regular season and the playoffs, it was simply an increased effort to shift the offense to Kobe Bryant, and the additions of Malone and Payton that caused a drop in Shaq’s touches and shots.
At the same time, Duncan was playing on two bum ankles, so while the reasons are different, we are still looking at two of the best not playing at their absolute peaks.
A reminder that this is not to say Duncan>Shaq or vice versa, it is merely an analysis to compare how the two inseparable giants performed during the Finals against similar opponents.
Offense
No surprises here, Shaq scored more and had a higher level of efficiency. Shaq scored 26.6 ppg on 63.1% shooting, while Duncan scored 20.6ppg on 43.4% shooting. Duncan also only averaged 0.5 assists per game more than Shaq did. The pace of the two series were also eerily similar, and it showed that the Lakers were being forced to play at the Pistons pace.
Shaq scored 32.52% of the Lakers points, and 15.41% of all available points (total points of both teams), while Duncan was 24.24% and 11.99%. Once assists were factored in, Shaq was directly responsible for 36.43% Lakers offense, while Duncan was responsible for 29.29% of the Spurs offense. This came as a slight surprise to me as Shaq really had to “compete” with his supporting casts (Kobe, Malone) for shots, while Duncan only had Ginobili to lessen the offensive load.
All in all, Shaq trumps Duncan in terms of his offensive value to their respective teams by almost 25% on offensive production.
Defense
Duncan averaged 14.14 rebounds and 2.14 blks vs. the Pistons, while Shaq had 10.8 rebounds and only 0.6 blks per game vs. the Pistons. The most telling number is that the Pistons averaged only 86.71 ppg vs. the Spurs with Duncan as the Spurs focal point on defense, while the 04 Pistons average 90.8 ppg (on less shots) vs. the Lakers and Shaq.
In terms of normalized numbers, Duncan grabbed 17.1% of all available rebounds, while Shaq managed 12.98%, this translates to a difference of about a 30% difference in rebounding production on their respective teams.
With regards to blocked shots, there really is no comparison. Duncan blocked 2.72% of all available Pistons shots (2.14 blks per game vs. 78.71 FGA by the Pistons over the 7 games), while Shaq only blocked 0.82% of the Pistons shots (0.6 blks on 73.2 FGA by the Pistons). This means that Duncan is more than 230% better at blocking Pistons shots than Shaq is, which is really quite a surprise.
Conclusion
Once again, while Shaq is better than Duncan on offense, Duncan was better than Shaq on defense (rebounding and blks) by a wider margin. This is very consistent with the findings against the Nets as well, and once again showed that the peaks of these two players are a lot closer than what people perceive to be.
Personal Opinion
I have always wondered why Shaq was viewed as one of the most dominant players of all time. His numbers, while great, are not better than those of Wilt, Kareem, Hakeem, Jordan, Bird or Magic. He “only” has 1 MVP (mostly due to questionable voting), one scoring title (mostly due to him pacing himself during the regular season), and no rebounding or block shot titles.
Then this dawned on me.
Shaq has one way of doing things. You just know what he does, he posts you up, and dunks over you, but there was absolutely no way you could stop him.
A player like Duncan, on the other hand, has a more varied arsenal. You can take away certain aspects of Duncan’s offense, but he is going to counter you with another move that would render your previous efforts useless. Some people see this as evidence that Duncan could be stopped while Shaq couldn’t, without looking at a larger picture and realizing that the end result is that Duncan, either himself or through a teammate, just broke down your defense.
Then of course there is a guy like Jordan, who has a large offensive arsenal and he can kill you with each and every one of them whenever he likes.