Which Teams Will Be Future NBA Contenders?

[duncan228]

Which teams will be future NBA contenders? (http://msn.foxsports.com/nba/story/9914058/Which-teams-will-be-future-NBA-contenders)
by Randy Hill

Thanks to the tricky properties of the luxury-tax threshold and the crisis of salary-cap flexibility, tactics such as screen-and-roll defense may seem less important to NBA fans.

Instead of worrying about spacing on offense, we're obliged to develop an understanding of the mid-level exception, base-year compensation and Bird rights.

Sure, we're all aware that the economy could make 2010's Summer of LeBron James a bit less freewheeling, but what's the long-term impact of this financial predicament? Better yet, which teams seem prepared for success over the next few years?

Before attempting to figure out which teams have their ducks in a row, let's take a look at a couple that may look a bit shaky in a few years.

Jumping to the head of that class are the San Antonio Spurs, who — despite financial-related gloom and doom down the line — probably will find a way to continue winning. They look great in the short term, but prolonged greatness will require a great deal of finesse.

A look at the Spurs' books reveals they have $28 million committed to the 2011-2012 season with only three rotation players signed. All but $7 million of that nut is commanded by good, ol' Tim Duncan. It also should be noted that the Spurs will have big tickets Tony Parker and Richard Jefferson falling off the budget in the summer of 2011, with Manu Ginobili's contract expiring the year before.

Antonio McDyess is listed on the payroll for that summer but won't exactly be a steal at $6.7 million.

Anyway, the Spurs must find a way to keep Parker and re-stock the talent base without crippling the franchise through luxury-tax penalties. Based on their history, they could find a gem or two late in the draft.

And the prevailing financial hayride could improve, giving the Spurs and everyone else a fightin' chance of rebuilding a competitive roster.

That's part of the caveat to any future forecast based on the economy. Well, that and unforeseen acts of stupidity capable of destroying one team's currently stable cap situation. See, we never know when a team's personnel sharpies will get a little cuckoo.

For example, the Cleveland Cavaliers decided their 2009 strategy in wooing LeBron back into the fold should include spending precious money on three players (including their own Anderson Varejao) without upgrading their damning lack of mobility at the four and five positions.

So with potential happiness subject to the whimsy of management, here's our look at teams that may be in decent shape for a few years to come.

Portland Trail Blazers

Brandon Roy has re-upped, LaMarcus Aldridge is close, and the last trace of Darius Miles ($9 million) comes off the books after next season.

Rudy Fernandez will be around for four more years at light money, with Jerryd Bayless looming as an affordable scoring option or a nice chip in trade talks.

Greg Oden has three more years on his first deal and should be affordable when it's time to talk extension.

The Martell Webster contract is a blip on this future that should be just dandy with Roy and Aldridge in the fold.

Los Angeles Lakers

Yeah, some big ifs are attached to this team.

We'll begin with Ron Artest, who (with a player option mixed in) could be around for five years. Right ... blessing or curse. Kobe Bryant is expected to be a Laker for several more years, as are Lamar Odom and Andrew Bynum.

And we're all pretty versed in the consistency and/or development issues of Odom and Bynum.

Even assuming that things go screamingly well with Artest, Odom and Bynum, the Lakers will be at another luxury-tax crossroads (unless happy financial days return for the league) when Pau Gasol's contract expires after the 2010-2011 season.

If the big-money lads stick around and dominate, the Lakers can thrive by keeping affordable foot soldiers around them.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The caveat here is the expected on-court progression of several talented young players.

If this improvement occurs, Thunder fans can be happy in the realization that Kevin Durant and Jeff Green are supposed to be around for three more years, with Russell Westbrook checking in at four and James Harden at five.

But after three years, expect Durant to begin an onslaught on Oklahoma City's financial structure.

Miami Heat

The efficacy of their 3-5 year plan will be established when a projected boatload of cap space is rolled out next summer.

But Pat Riley kept to the blueprint by not coughing up bad contracts for mediocre free agents who might appease Dwyane Wade this summer. The Heat's young rotation players should improve enough to keep Wade competitive and happy for one season before a big free-agent strike (Chris Both?) next July.

With the money and infrastructure to make such a signing more than possible, two big names and emerging — not to mention — affordable kids could put the Heat back among the elite.

New York Knicks

Their inclusion rates an asterisk because the cap-clearing Knicks haven't signed anyone to write home about ... including their own David Lee.

But in addition to waving bye-bye to some awful contracts next summer, New York has the deals of Eddy Curry and Jared Jeffries expiring the following year.

They also have a good player (Wilson Chandler) around for three more years at low money.

It's New York and a fun system to be in. Hey, a lot of teams are in worse future financial shape than the Knicks ... finally.

Orlando Magic

Orlando has tons of loot committed and low flexibility, but having each of its three best players locked up for four more years is good enough to be listed.


The Why Not Us? List

We'll go through these teams quickly.

The Houston Rockets could be in good theoretical shape by not re-signing Tracy McGrady, but Yao Ming's injury history keeps them lurking on the coast of ranking among the leaders.

The Chicago Bulls owe Luol Deng about $60 million over the next five years and have their backup point guard (Kirk Hinrich) on the books for $26 million over three.

Please note they still have nobody to score inside. But wise use of next summer's cap space (so long, Jerome James and Brad Miller!) could put them on this list.

The Phoenix Suns could have money to spend in a year or two ... if they part company with Amare Stoudemire. But if that happens, they may not have any players to go with anyone willing to sign.

The Minnesota Timberwolves can jump on this list because they have a few potential rotation players on the books for several years at low money. But if Jonny Flynn and Wayne Ellington don't do well as we expect they will, we'll keep 'em here.

Blake Griffin, Eric Gordon and Al Thornton can elevate the Los Angeles Clippers while making reasonable money for several years. But the big contracts (and uncertain production) of Baron Davis and Chris Kaman prevent us from becoming prematurely giddy over Donald T. Sterling's crew.

[lefty]

Bobcats ?

[Culburn369]

Bobcats ?

Can't work. It's against like the law to schedule the Lakers against them for 82 straight games.

[Culburn369]

Here's lots of good shit to peruse:

Updated: August 11, 2009, 1:40 PM ET
West's pecking order has familiar flavor


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http://a.espncdn.com/i/columnists/Hollinger_John_35.jpg (http://search.espn.go.com/john-hollinger/) By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive (http://search.espn.go.com/john-hollinger/)


http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0811/nba_g_lakersts_576.jpgNathaniel S. Butler/Getty ImagesWith the main ingredients back -- plus the addition of Ron Artest -- the Lakers look poised to repeat.

OK, hungry fans, it's time to turn our attention to the Western side of the menu, after Monday's look at the new pecking order in the East (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=east-090810).
I'm not sure the pecking order in the West is quite so "new;" less changed in these parts since the end of last season. But I'm here to break it down all the same. Much like the East, the West can be broken into five distinct groups. Make that five and a half, actually, as there's one additional category we didn't have in the East.
And, like yesterday, we'll be sticking with an epicurean theme. Without further ado, here's how it lays out.

Group IA: The Chef's Special


There's a lot of good stuff on the menu, but this one looks a cut above. Sure, it costs more, but the reviewers all say it's worth every cent. You'll be talking about this meal for weeks.

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Los Angeles Lakers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lal)
Consider this: The defending champs won a title despite getting virtually nothing from Andrew Bynum (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2748) during the postseason. If he comes back and plays to his capabilities they're going to be scary good.
Of more immediate interest, however, is their de facto swap of Trevor Ariza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2426) for Ron Artest (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=25). Artest is nuts and lost a step at the offensive end last season, but he's still an elite defensive player and he's a better spot-up shooter than Ariza. (For those who watched only the playoffs, I'll remind you that Ariza was a 29.9 percent career 3-point shooter when the postseason began. Let's not get carried away with a well-timed hot streak.)
Committing to Artest for five years was foolish, but the swap makes the Lakers better in the short term. With Lamar Odom (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=617) and Shannon Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2992) re-signed at very reasonable prices and Phil Jackson coming back, L.A. has quietly (for them) had a strong offseason.
Of course, the greatest break for the Lakers is that they're still in the Western Conference. While the East is top-heavy with Orlando, Cleveland and Boston all loading up, L.A. remains the clear favorite to oppose one of those three in the Finals.



Group I: The Entrees


Oh sure, you'll eat the free bread and order a side dish or two. But realistically, these will be the last and most memorable items on your plate at the end of the season.

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San Antonio Spurs (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sas)
On paper, the Spurs look like the most legitimate aspirant to the Lakers' Western crown. They've added Richard Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1006) and Antonio McDyess (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=530) without surrendering anyone important, giving the starting five a badly needed infusion of scoring. Throw in the second-round theft of DeJuan Blair (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3965) and a return from injury from Ian Mahinmi (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2774) and the Spurs should be deeper, too.
But all this depends on their stars carrying the mail. Tim Duncan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=215) and Manu Ginobili (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=272) both broke down at the end of last season and, at their age, one wonders if they can regain their previous form and sustain it through an entire season. Without knowing the answer to that major question, the Spurs merely rank as another of the West's hopefuls.

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Denver Nuggets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=den)
Last spring, the Nuggets had the Lakers sweating bullets for four games and most of a fifth, so theoretically they entered the offseason on near-equal footing. However, money matters have prevented them from keeping up with the arms race among the other contenders. Denver isn't a high-revenue team despite its success last season and is already over the luxury-tax threshold, so it had to manage its money carefully. As a result, Linas Kleiza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2770) and Dahntay Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2008) won't be back, and Anthony Carter (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=137) might not be either.
But the Nuggets' top six players return, including a re-signed Chris Andersen (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1135), and trades brought in some younger help in rookie Ty Lawson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4000) (one of my draft favorites) and Arron Afflalo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3187). There isn't a huge margin of safety here, but if the Nuggets are healthy they'll still be really good.

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Portland Trail Blazers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=por)
Nobody talks about the Blazers as serious contenders in the West, but we should. Portland had the best scoring margin in basketball after the All-Star break last season, and as I keep repeating, scoring margin predicts future success better than winning percentage.
Yes, they went one-and-done in the playoffs, but this team should be better this time around. The Blazers added Andre Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=557), vastly improving their backcourt depth, and returned Martell Webster (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2795) from injury. The only departure was Channing Frye (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2754), who fell to the fringes of the rotation by the end of last season. Most importantly, one of the league's youngest nuclei gained a valuable year of experience and cut its playoff teeth. Watch out for these guys.



Group II: The Tasty Hors D'oeuvres


Scrumptious in small doses, these clubs are hoping to steal your attention from the centerpiece, and at times it seems they might succeed. But each lacks a key ingredient to keep it on our plate 'til June.

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Utah Jazz (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=uth)
It's hard to get too jazzed up about a ride on the Utah bandwagon when it was healthy for the final 23 games of last season and went 8-15. The Jazz have effectively stood pat thus far this summer, drafting a backup point guard in Eric Maynor (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4001) and retaining Paul Millsap (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3015) by matching Portland's offer sheet. They may also lose a breaking-down Matt Harpring (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=306) to retirement.
However, we're still waiting for the other shoe to drop. Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703) dismayed everyone by opting in for the final year of his contract, leaving the Jazz well over the luxury-tax line. Pretty much everyone assumes they'll trade him, and if Utah can score a quality wing player in the deal it could move up a class. Utah owns one other huge asset as well: the completely unprotected 2010 first-round pick belonging to the Knicks.

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Dallas Mavericks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=dal)
The Mavs bought when everyone else sold, retaining Jason Kidd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=429) and adding Shawn Marion (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=510), Drew Gooden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1711), Kris Humphries (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2433), Tim Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=847) and Quinton Ross (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2188) this offseason. They are well into the tax and overpaid for Kidd especially (three years and $25 million at 36?), but if paying luxury tax doesn't bother Mark Cuban then it's really not a problem.
Despite their age, the Mavs will try to play small and fast, with Kidd, Jason Terry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=841), Josh Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2006), Marion and Dirk Nowitzki (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=609) playing as a run-and-gun unit in crunch time. That could give them a puncher's chance at a playoff upset, but it's tough to see how they can match up physically against the powerful frontcourts the top contenders possess.
Because of Cuban's willingness to spend, they're a far more intriguing team a year from now thanks to what may become the league's most coveted asset: Erick Dampier (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=181)'s expiring, non-guaranteed $12 million in 2010-11. Casual fans may not realize how valuable this is in the current economy. Next summer a financially struggling team could trade a highly paid player to Dallas for Dampier, waive him immediately and wipe their books totally clean. And given the current economic conditions, I have a feeling some teams will be willing to do it.

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New Orleans Hornets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=nor)
The Hornets didn't spend any money this summer and, based on recent history, maybe that's good thing. A series of bad free-agent contracts (Peja Stojakovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=813), Morris Peterson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=656), James Posey (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=671)) have tied the Hornets' hands and put them in tax territory, though they did manage a slight upgrade at center with the Tyson Chandler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=984)-Emeka Okafor (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2399) swap.
Chris Paul (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2779) makes them a playoff team on his own, and offseason pickups Darren Collison (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3973) and Ike Diogu (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2750) might improve what was among the league's worst benches last season. But the Hornets might still try to shed a contract or two to get under the tax, and as things stand now they're going to get miserable production from the wings.



Group III: The Mystery Meat


These teams are the equivalent of going to a foreign country and ordering blindly off a menu in another language. It might be awesome, it might be terrible; really, you have no idea. But it will definitely be different, and you'll probably walk away with a good story or two.

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Los Angeles Clippers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac)
They stunk last season, plus they're the Clippers, which means they could screw this up at a moment's notice. But the offseason certainly pleased the Clipper faithful. First overall pick Blake Griffin (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3989) should be a double-double guy immediately, and the trade of Zach Randolph (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1017) for Quentin Richardson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=703) gives the Clips cap space for a free-agent run next year. Better yet, they parlayed Richardson into frontcourt depth with a second deal with Minnesota for underrated forward Craig Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3031).
But the biggest reason to like the Clips is because they were going to be better anyway. Baron Davis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=194), Chris Kaman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1982) and Ricky Davis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=193) should all be in much better physical condition for this go-round, and second-year pro Eric Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3431) should improve, too. Whether it's enough for a playoff run remains to be seen, but this version of the Clips should keep us entertained.

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Phoenix Suns (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=pho)
Thanks to a reluctance to pay luxury tax and some horrific cap management in prior offseasons, the Suns keep shedding personnel. Phoenix traded Shaquille O'Neal (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=614) for straight cap relief -- plus the already-released Ben Wallace (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=885) and the soon-to-be-released Sasha Pavlovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2172) -- when he came off an All-Star season. But instead of launching a full tear-down operation they extended Steve Nash (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=592), signed Channing Frye and re-signed Grant Hill (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=336), which means they could still make the playoffs if Amare Stoudemire (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1727) is healthy.
We have no idea how well he'll recover from his eye injury or what the implications are for his game if the eye gives him problems. But if he's not playing to his usual standard the Suns could embark on a long ride down. One quick note to file away if that happens: Oklahoma City has Phoenix's draft pick from the Kurt Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=846) salary dump in 2007, and there's no lottery protection whatsoever.

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Oklahoma City Thunder (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=okc)
I think the Thunder are ready to move up the standings this season, but I'm just not sure how far. They opted to hold back on spending this summer and save it for next year, when they'll have about $15 million in space under the cap. So any improvement this season will result from internal development by the core of Kevin Durant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3202), Jeff Green (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3209) and Russell Westbrook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3468) and the addition of draft pick James Harden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3992).
Is it possible Durant blows up, averages in the high 20s and leads these guys to the playoffs? Absolutely. But they depend an awful lot on one guy for the offense, and that one guy has yet to demonstrate he can take high-percentage shots or create meaningful opportunities for others. And if injuries hit, there's not a lot of depth here.



Group IV: Can I Send This Plate Back?


Sure, they look like decent appetizers at first glance. But once you have a few bites, it turns out there's something half-baked about each of these clubs.

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Golden State Warriors (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=gsw)
Based on talent, the Warriors shouldn't be down here. They have plenty of offensive firepower with the return of Monta Ellis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2751) and the addition of Stephen Curry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3975) to go with the likes of Corey Maggette (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=497), Andris Biedrins (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2427), Stephen Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=378) and summer-league star Anthony Randolph (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3455).
Unfortunately, we already know they'll screw this up somehow. The dysfunctional mess of a front office is too busy running Don Nelson's least-favored players out of town to bother acquiring pieces that fit. Al Harrington (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=308), Jamal Crawford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=165) and Marco Belinelli (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3190) already departed with nothing to show for it, and Brandan Wright (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3242)'s got next. With this roster and Nelson's basic M.O. of playing seven shooting guards 30 minutes each, the Warriors are guaranteed to be among the worst defensive teams in the league, so if the offense isn't lights-out they're gong to struggle.

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Houston Rockets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=hou)
Medical problems pretty much ended Houston's season before it started, as Yao Ming (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1722) and Tracy McGrady (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=532) went under the knife and will contribute little, if anything. Meanwhile, the de facto swap of Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza bodes well for Houston's future but doesn't alter its present outlook much.
That was the only major offseason move. Otherwise, Houston tried to supplement its future with the biggest run of property acquisitions since the Louisiana Purchase. Houston paid nearly $9 million to acquire the rights to Jermaine Taylor, Chase Budinger, Sergio Llull and David Andersen -- not their salaries, mind you, just the right to be the ones paying them -- but only Andersen is likely to be in the rotation this season.
If the Rockets stay healthy and get bust-out years from Aaron Brooks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3192) and Carl Landry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3217) it's possible they can stay on the fringes of the playoff race, but it's more likely they'll struggle too much to score.



Group V: Roadkill


I'm pretty sure this is meat, but it tastes like an animal not normally served in restaurants, and I think I see a tread mark. We're outta here …

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Memphis Grizzlies (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mem)
Chris Wallace's nameplate still says general manager, but it's obvious that owner Michael Heisley is calling the shots on personnel. As usual when an owner meddles, the results have been disastrous. What kind of a buffoon trades Pau Gasol (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=996) for pennies on the dollar and then a year later acquires Zach Randolph at the same money? The same kind that prefers trading for Randolph to trading for Carlos Boozer, or to making a run at David Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2772), or to just setting $16 million on fire. Oh, and he wants Allen Iverson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=366) too. Great.
Despite a near-empty arena, the Griz still make money. That's partly because they'll do anything for $3 million, even trading a useful player (Darko Milicic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2171)) for a finished one (Quentin Richardson). But the few fans left in Memphis will get to see two of the league's biggest ball hogs fight it out for shots every night when Randolph and Rudy Gay (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3005) take the court. One almost wants to see them add Iverson to the mix just to see if they could go an entire game without an assist.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/min.gif (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min)


Minnesota Timberwolves (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min)
While other teams have gained more attention as belt-tighteners, the T'pups have quietly joined their ranks. Trading Craig Smith just to be rid of a $2.7 million obligation to Sebastian Telfair (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2417) next year has to qualify as a low point, and one gets the impression they're pretty happy to defer a $3 million obligation to Ricky Rubio a couple years into the future. They dumped Mike Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=558) and Randy Foye (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3003), eventually acquiring a non-guaranteed player they can waive (Chucky Atkins (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=26)), and their only foray into free agency was a low-wattage bid for Ryan Hollins (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3008).
If Al Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2389) returns to his All-Star-caliber level of the first half of last season it lifts Minnesota half a notch above doormat status, but the Wolves leaked a lot of talent since their strong January last season.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/sac.gif (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac)


Sacramento Kings (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac)
Shell-shocked by increasingly horrific economics in Sacto and the woefully outdated Arco Arena, the Kings locked down financially while they wait to find out where their next home will be. If it's a new building in Sacramento, great, but if not, San Jose, Anaheim, Kansas City and others await with open arms. Either way, they won't spend a nickel without some certainty on this front.
The Kings did pick up a potential star in the draft in Tyreke Evans (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3983) and a low-budget breakout possibility in Sergio Rodriguez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3025), plus Kevin Martin (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2394) should be healthier. That should keep them run-of-the-mill bad rather than historically awful, but optimists won't find a lot of ammunition here.

[Culburn369]

Here's the companion piece:

Updated: August 11, 2009, 1:07 PM ET
Taste test: Rating East offseason order


Comment (http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id=4386602) Email (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=east-090810#) Print (http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4386602&type=story) Share (javascript:void(0);)
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http://a.espncdn.com/i/columnists/Hollinger_John_35.jpg (http://search.espn.go.com/john-hollinger/) By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
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http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0808/nba_g_carter11_576.jpgFernando Medina/NBAE/Getty ImagesVince Carter, 32, should help make the Magic the East favorite to return to the NBA Finals.
Say this about the NBA this summer: They've kept it interesting.

We were expecting a fairly humdrum free-agent season while everyone held their cards for the LeBron Sweepstakes next summer. Instead, the opposite happened. Every contender in sight began loading up, and despite warnings of economic Armageddon, several championship hopefuls blew past the luxury-tax threshold without even tapping the brakes.
Though we didn't have any All-Star free-agent signings, the list of players who changed uniforms this summer is an impressive one. Shaquille O'Neal (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=614), Richard Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1006), Vince Carter (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=136), Ron Artest (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=25), Trevor Ariza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2426), Rasheed Wallace (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=883), Andre Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=557), Shawn Marion (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=510), Ben Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2381), Antonio McDyess (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=530), Emeka Okafor (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2399), Tyson Chandler (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=984), Charlie Villanueva (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2792) and Hedo Turkoglu (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=862) were among the prominent names to relocate.
And we might have a few more to add to that list, as prominent free agents like David Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2772), Allen Iverson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=366) and Ramon Sessions (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3231) are still unsigned. We also could still see several money-driven moves by teams over the tax line, with the most notable potential one being Utah's Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703). And with nearly two months to go until camp starts, it's still possible we'll see Quentin Richardson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=703) dealt six or seven more times.
But while the offseason isn't complete, things have clearly calmed down from the initial frenzy. Money is tight everywhere, and a lot of teams are done shopping, especially since several clubs will limit themselves to the minimum 13-man roster.
Hungry for more? So are we. And as luck would have it, it's time to check out the menu for this season. With 30 different items there are several kinds of grub to choose from, ranging from five-star specials to stuff you wouldn't feed your dog.
In the big picture, there's a pretty clear pecking order in each conference, so I've grouped everybody into five categories. So order your drinks and stay awhile. Today I'll start with the East and establish where everybody stands and how, exactly, they got there. In the next edition, we'll move on to the West.

Group I: The Entrees



Oh sure, you'll eat the free bread and order a side dish or two. But realistically, these will be the last and most memorable items on your plate at the end of the season.

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Orlando: The defending conference champs didn't exactly rest on their laurels, did they? At this juncture, in fact, their roster looks a lot more fearsome than it did at the end of last season. Carter is a major upgrade on Turkoglu, while free-agent additions Matt Barnes (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1765) and Brandon Bass (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2745) make what was a thin frontcourt suddenly look much deeper.
Add in whom they retained (Marcin Gortat (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2758)) and returned (Jameer Nelson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2439), after a shoulder injury wiped out the second half of his season) and the Magic look absolutely stacked. At this point, they have to be considered the favorites in the East, and depending on how this remix works out at the defensive end, there's a chance they could post a jaw-dropping win total.
The one reason for misgiving is a lack of backcourt depth after the trades of Rafer Alston (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=11) and Courtney Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3445) to New Jersey; now Mickael Pietrus (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2173) is a likely starter and J.J. Redick (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3024) and Anthony Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=396) will have to play major minutes, and another injury to Nelson could leave them exposed.

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Cleveland: Scary thought -- the Cavs won 66 games and got better in the offseason. Whatever they get from Shaquille O'Neal will dwarf the contributions of Ben Wallace (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=885) and Sasha Pavlovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2172) a year ago, so that trade is a home run for Cleveland. Beyond that, they addressed the greatest area of concern by adding size and depth on the wings in the form of Anthony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=635) and Jamario Moon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3249).
Cleveland also kept Anderson Varejao (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2419), and while their payroll is on pace to outstrip the national debt, that's Dan Gilbert's problem. On the court, they've strengthened three key rotation spots without losing a single important player.
The Cavs can make a strong case that they will match much better against Orlando now, especially against Dwight Howard (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2384) with Shaq in the middle. One caveat, however: They must overcome the distraction of the most eagerly anticipated walk year in sports history.

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Boston: Yes, it's possible the Celtics' magical championship march in 2008 was a one-shot deal. But dismiss them at your peril.
Last season they won more games than Orlando, even though Kevin Garnett (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=261) missed the final two months, and took the Magic to seven games in the conference semifinals. Garnett will be back, but is something of a question mark until he shows his knee is fine. Meanwhile, the Celtics brought in reinforcements in Rasheed Wallace and Marquis Daniels (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2200), with the former being particularly useful since the Celtics lacked a "stretch 4" a year ago.
Age is a huge issue here, and they'll have to pace themselves in the regular season, so they're probably going to be the East's No. 3 seed. But if they're healthy come playoff time and the Ubuntu is flowing, they still look like a team that can win the East.

Group II: The Tasty Hors D'oeuvres


Scrumptious in small doses, these clubs are hoping to steal your attention from the centerpiece, and at times it seems they might succeed. But each lacks a key ingredient to keep it on our plate 'til June.

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Atlanta: A distant fourth in the East this past season, the Hawks look to have retained that position after a successful offseason. Atlanta kept all its major free agents (Marvin Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2797), Mike Bibby (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=61) and Zaza Pachulia (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2016)), and supplemented its shaky backcourt depth by trading for Jamal Crawford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=165) and drafting Jeff Teague (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4015).
The most controversial move is the acquisition of Crawford, a mindless gunner who plays no defense whatsoever. But they got him for free, and the man he replaced, Flip Murray, wasn't exactly known as the Human Assist. He'll be fine as the designated launcher off the bench.
If Atlanta can extend Joe Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1007) and add a veteran big man (Joe Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=788), anyone?), it will be a near-perfect summer, with the only blemish being the Hawks' inability to convert restricted free agent Josh Childress (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2373) into a usable asset.

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Chicago: Postseason darlings after taking Boston to seven thrilling games in the first round, Chicago lost a big chunk of its offensive firepower when Ben Gordon bolted for Detroit. But with the trio of Kirk Hinrich (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1981), Luol Deng (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2429) and John Salmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1726) likely to be healthier than they were last season, Gordon might not be missed.
The other big factor in Chicago's favor is the likely improvement of young players like Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456), Joakim Noah (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3224) and Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032). That's not a "nice to have," though; it's imperative. The kids have to get better, because the Bulls didn't sign any players as they gear up for a free-agent run next summer. In fact, it's possible they'll trade Thomas or Hinrich to have more cap space left over.

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Miami: Like the Bulls, the Heat mostly stood by with their hands in their pockets waiting until next summer, when they'll have enough cap space to add a max-contract free agent and another well-compensated sidekick to run with Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1987). In the meantime, this club doesn't look much different than the one that lost to the Hawks in the first round a year ago. Wade guarantees them a .500 record if he's healthy and gives them a puncher's chance of pulling an upset in the playoffs, but it's hard to see how they'll get better right away unless Michael Beasley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3418) blows up.

Group III: The Mystery Meat


These teams are the equivalent of going to a foreign country and ordering blindly off a menu in another language. It might be awesome, it might be terrible; really, you have no idea. But it will definitely be different, and you'll probably walk away with a good story or two.

http://assets.espn.go.com/i/teamlogos/nba/med/trans/tor.gif (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=tor)


Toronto: The Euraptors spent a ton of money this summer, but whether it was well-spent is a question open for debate. For starters, spending a combined $100 million for Turkoglu and Andrea Bargnani (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2987) would make a lot more sense if basketball had a DH rule. Jarrett Jack (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2768) at $20 million was excessive as well, and if the Euraps don't commit to paying a luxury tax down the road, these deals are going to give them a lot of problems.
But hey, it's not my money, and it might all work out brilliantly. They're committed to a floor-spacing, sweet-shooting outfit reminiscent of Bryan Colangelo's old Suns teams in a final crack at convincing Chris Bosh (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1977) to stay beyond this season. Either that or they're trying to convince Bosh he's really living in Geneva; somebody needs to check to see if they aren't setting all the clocks six hours ahead up there.
While Toronto spent freely, there were some value moves beneath the surface: They got Rasho Nesterovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=598) for a song and Marco Belinelli (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3190) for less than that, and while I'm not high on DeMar DeRozan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3978), a lot of folks whom I respect are.
I guess what I'm saying is I have no idea how this will work out, which is how they ended up in the mystery meat section. It's easy to split the difference and say they'll be a .500-ish team, but I don't think that will be the outcome. I'm expecting either a brilliant success or a spectacular failure, and I'm really not sure which.

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Washington: "We won 19 games last year. Let's go all-in." Hey, if Boston can do it after winning 24 games, why not these guys?
That said, this isn't quite like landing Garnett and Ray Allen (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=9). Washington obtained Mike Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=558) and Randy Foye (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3003) from Minnesota and is hoping that Gilbert Arenas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=974) can finally shake off two years of knee injuries and become a dominating scorer again. While the Wizards are finding out if this works any better than last season's outfit, or the procession of 40-something-win teams that preceded it, they'll also be paying luxury tax through the nose.
Only one offseason move can allay my cynicism, and that's the hiring of Flip Saunders. Yes, he's had some playoff failures, but the dude wins. Somehow, he'll figure out how to get some competent defense from these guys and teach talented-but-frustrating young 'uns like JaVale McGee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3452), Andray Blatche (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2746) and Nick Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3243) how to play with others. If somehow Arenas can regain his old form, it might all work out spectacularly well.

Group IV: Can I Send This Back?


Sure, they look like decent appetizers at first glance. But once you have a few bites, it turns out there's something half-baked about each of these clubs.

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Detroit: Are we sure Joe Dumars is still the one calling the shots over here? Trading Chauncey Billups (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=63)? Extending Richard Hamilton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=294)? Signing Kwame Brown (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=981) and Chris Wilcox (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1731)? Trading in coaches like they're eligible for the "cash for clunkers" program? Does this sound like the guy who was two steps ahead of everybody else in the league for half a decade?
The Pistons have four guards who can score and none who can pass. They have two centers who might not shoot .800 from the line … combined. Their starters at the 2, 3 and 4 would have trouble bench-pressing my laptop. They have another new coach, and maybe he'll make this all work somehow, but I'm not holding my breath.

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Philadelphia: It's painful to watch a quality team leak talent because finances have tied their hands, but that's what happened to the Sixers. They had to let Andre Miller walk because their woeful attendance can't support a luxury-tax payroll, and now they have to hope that Elton Brand (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=91) bounces back from a horrific first year in Philly.
If Brand delivers, this might work out anyway. There's quite a bit of young talent here (Thaddeus Young (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3244), Marreese Speights (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3460), Andre Iguodala (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2386), Lou Williams (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2799), Jrue Holiday (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3995) and a returning-from-injury Jason Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3232)), and an offseason trade for Jason Kapono (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2010) will help with their biggest Achilles' heel, shooting. New coach Eddie Jordan, an offensive maestro, should find them a few extra points as well. Nonetheless, getting back to the playoffs is the ceiling here. As for the floor? Don't look down.

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Charlotte: The best news of the offseason is that owner Robert Johnson plans to sell the team. Bobcats fans have to hope he'll find a buyer immediately, and that whoever takes over won't be too awed by Michael Jordan's presence to tell him you can't run a basketball team from a driving range 700 miles away.
Otherwise, the Bobcats willfully downgraded from Emeka Okafor to Tyson Chandler because … well, we're not sure why. They haven't re-signed Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) because they don't want to be a tax team next year, and they haven't signed any new players at all, and since they were one of the league's worst offensive teams a year ago and just traded the only guy who made half his shots, I'm not sure how it's gonna work.

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Indiana: Note to the Pacers: Signing seven players who average two points a game isn't the same as signing one player who averages 14. Indiana spent its offseason combing the league for 11th men, forking out a four-year, $11 million deal for Dahntay Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2008) and another $2.9 million for Earl Watson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1027). Solomon Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3010) and Josh McRoberts (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3220) were the other big offseason signings for the Pacers, who also picked up gritty but limited forward Tyler Hansbrough (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3991) in the draft. Meanwhile, they let Jarrett Jack and Marquis Daniels walk to sign deals for roughly the same money; Jack alone will probably outproduce the five new players combined.
About the only piece of legitimately good news for Indy is that Mike Dunleavy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1708) is apparently recovering very nicely from a career-threatening knee injury. Plug him into last season's roster and this was probably a playoff team. Alas, the same can't be said for this year's bunch.

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Milwaukee: You could argue the Bucks should go in the next category down as another of the league's economic victims. They gave away Richard Jefferson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1006) and lost Villanueva without a fight. The thing everyone forgets, though, is that Milwaukee was playing well last season until Michael Redd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=692) and Andrew Bogut (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2747)were injured. The Bucks made a couple helpful additions amidst all the subtractions -- Hakim Warrick (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2794), Kurt Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=846), Ersan Ilyasova (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2767), Amir Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2769) -- and if they can find a way to hang on to Ramon Sessions (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3231), they might be OK. Group V: Roadkill


I'm pretty sure this is meat, but it tastes like an animal not normally served in restaurants, and I think I see a tread mark. We're outta here …

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New Jersey: New Jersey and Milwaukee were the first Eastern teams to offer a total capitulation to the economic downturn. The Nets traded Vince Carter for spare parts, slashed the salaries of any staff they hadn't already laid off and hid in a bunker the rest of the summer. Their only activity this season will be removing players, not adding them, and the result will be even more empty seats than usual in the Swamp.

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New York: The Knicks didn't sign anybody, which is probably a good thing considering whom they targeted. Jason Kidd (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=429)? Grant Hill (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=336)? Does this make any sense for a rebuilding team? Hey, you want to put in an offer for Adrian Dantley while you're at it?
They still haven't moved to retain David Lee or Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2782), as they're caught in a quandary of whether to forfeit their 2010 cap space and a possible run at LeBron James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966). Trading Quentin Richardson for Darko Milicic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2171) will help a bit as they now have a legit center -- albeit one who plays hard in around one game in five -- but that's about the high point of the summer thus far.

[Culburn369]

Here's an older piece of some merit:

Updated: August 7, 2009, 3:02 PM ET
2010 outlook: Teams with cap space


Comment (http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id=4370878) Email (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=CapSpace2010-090807#) Print (http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4370878&type=story) Share (javascript:void(0);)
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ESPN.com
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http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0806/nba_g_wade_576.jpgVictor Baldizon/NBAE/Getty ImagesDwyane Wade's Heat are one of several teams that could have significant dough to spend in 2010.
On Monday, we looked at the star-studded free-agent class of 2010 (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=2010FreeAgents-090803), and there's more good news for fans eager to see some moves next summer: Nearly a third of the league will have enough salary-cap space to make a run at one or more free agents.

Given current projections, nine teams -- the New Jersey Nets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=njn), New York Knicks (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=nyk), Miami Heat (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=mia), Minnesota Timberwolves (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=min), Houston Rockets (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=hou), Chicago Bulls (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=chi), Oklahoma City Thunder (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=okc), Los Angeles Clippers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=lac) and Sacramento Kings (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/clubhouse?team=sac) -- could have significant money under the salary cap to spend in 2009.
Now for the bad news: Teams won't be nearly as far under the cap as they had hoped.
Last summer, NBA GMs were projecting a cap of $62 million to $64 million in the summer of 2010. But when the league reported the cap numbers for next season on June 30, the league memo mentioned that the NBA is now projecting a 5-10 percent decrease in the cap for the summer of 2010.
A 5 percent decrease makes for a $53.6 million cap next year (down $4 million from last season's $57.7 million cap). A 10 percent worst-case scenario? Teams will be playing with a cap below $50 million.
That means teams such as the Knicks that were projecting a $64 million cap will likely have $10 million to $14 million less to work with than they thought they would just 12 months ago.
Ouch.
So how much will each team have to spend? It's an inexact science a year away, but here's what our research came up with. For the purposes of this projection, we're going with a $53.6 million cap.



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New Jersey Nets


New Jersey has one of the best opportunities to land a big-time free agent. The Nets are likely to be somewhere between $25 million and $27 million under the cap, depending on where they draft and the number of cap holds they have on their roster next summer.





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New York Knicks


The Knicks aren't too far behind New Jersey. They could have $24 million in cap space next summer, though there are a few caveats for Knicks fans.
First, that number is with only six players under contract and six minimum cap holds. Second, it doesn't factor in David Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2772) or Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2782). If they sign for more than a one-year deal, the number goes down significantly. GM Donnie Walsh will try hard this summer to trade Jared Jeffries (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1717) and/or Eddy Curry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=990) for an expiring contract to clear more cap space, but in this economic climate, it won't be easy.





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Miami Heat


The Heat are also poised to have some serious cap room next year. If Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1987) opts out, they technically won't have one guaranteed contract on their books. More realistically, though, they'll pick up options on Michael Beasley (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3418), Daequan Cook (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3196) and Mario Chalmers (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3419) and keep Wade's cap hold -- putting them at between $20 million and $22 million under the cap next season. (This number comes with an assumption that they waive a few guys, including James Jones (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2009).)
Those are the three teams with the big bucks. But a few other teams can get $10 million or more under the cap as well:





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Minnesota Timberwolves


The Timberwolves should be between $16 million and $18 million under the cap next season, depending on whether they pick up their option on Ryan Gomes (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2757). New GM David Kahn should be poised to spend the money. But the real question is, will any top NBA free agent choose the Wolves over big-market teams like the Knicks, Nets, Bulls and Heat?





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Chicago Bulls


The Bulls can get between $13 million and $15 million under the cap if they decide to dump Tyrus Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3032), who will be a restricted free agent. If they extend Thomas or sign him as a free agent (or just keep his cap hold on the books, for that matter), they'll have significantly less.
The other factor for the Bulls will be what John Salmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1726) does. Salmons has an early-termination option in his contract. If he terminates his contract and the Bulls don't re-sign him, they would clear an extra $6 million in cap room and could get as much as $20 million under the cap.





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Oklahoma City Thunder


The Thunder will also be in good shape.
GM Sam Presti has been spending his money carefully and should have $14 million to $15 million in room next summer.





Houston Rockets

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The Rockets, assuming they don't re-sign Tracy McGrady (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=532), can get $12 million to $14 million under if they don't pick up team options on Carl Landry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3217) and Chuck Hayes (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2834). However, they have a couple of significant restricted free agents -- Luis Scola (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1781) and Kyle Lowry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3012) -- whom they probably want to keep. If they keep both, they'll have much less cap room. All of this assumes that the injured Yao Ming (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1722) won't terminate his max contract in 2010.






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Los Angeles Clippers


The Clippers could get around $10 million or $11 million under next season, and if they could find a way to clear a little more cap room, I actually think they could be a serious free-agent player. With a young nucleus of Blake Griffin (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3989), Eric Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3431) and Al Thornton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3237), along with a veteran point guard like Baron Davis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=194), they could be pretty attractive to a top-level free agent who wants to play in L.A. If they found a home for Chris Kaman (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1982), that would give them another $10 million in room. I know it's the Clippers, folks, but they have a better young team to build around than the Knicks or Nets do.





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Sacramento Kings


The Kings should be somewhere between $9 million and $10 million under the cap. But given their financial woes of late, they might not be as willing to spend it as would some other teams.




A few other teams could have big money if one of their top free agents leaves next summer.
The Cavs could be between $19 million and $20 million under the cap if LeBron James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966) left. The Suns could be between $7 million and $8 million under if Amare Stoudemire (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1727) bolted. And the Raptors could clear between $6 million and $7 million under if Chris Bosh (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1977) changed uniforms.

[Culburn369]

And last but not least a tedious piece:

Updated: August 6, 2009, 6:45 PM ET
Why the tax matters now ... and later


Comment (http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id=4380485) Email (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=LuxuryTax-090806#) Print (http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4380485&type=story) Share (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0);)
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ESPN.com
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http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0805/nba_g_amiller_576.jpg Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE/Getty Images

Andre Miller made the Sixers go, but now he's gone to Portland, thanks to Philly's financial issues.
The NBA dropped an absolute bombshell last month, and I'm still not sure everyone realizes how big it was.

So it's time for me to get the blinking neon lights and huge capital letters.
As our Marc Stein mentioned a month ago, way down of the last paragraph in the league's memo to teams on the salary cap was the little nugget that the league projects the 2010-11 salary cap will shrink sharply (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4312837) thanks to revenue decline projected for this coming season.
That's only the tip of the iceberg. The big news is that it takes the luxury-tax level down with it. Teams are looking at a tax level of between $61-65 million next season. While some farsighted teams had been projecting such a state of affairs for a while, I'm told that as recently as April the guidance from the league was much more optimistic.
This is huge. People in every front office in the league has been talking about it, especially the ones that were caught off guard. Most of the good ones weren't, it should be said; teams whose bean-counters follow the revenue side closely were projecting a decline in the salary cap for a long time, as I noted at the end of this story (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=All-Star-Notebook-090215) in February. (Incidentally, this is one of many reasons I don't believe Billy Hunter's bluster (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=4314858) -- some very smart people in front offices around the league were planning for this scenario several months ago.)
For fans the issue is the cap, because that's where all the yummy free-agent stuff will happen, especially the projected circus surrounding LeBron James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966). And we'll get to how it impacts next summer in a minute.

WHICH TEAMS HAVE CAP SPACE?

Chad Ford breaks down the 2010 salary cap situation and explains which nine teams could be in position to sign likely free agents such as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Story (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=CapSpace2010-090807) http://assets.espn.go.com/i/in.gif



But for teams the big story is the tax, and fans should care too since it's going to impact a massive number of personnel decisions over the next 18 months. In fact, it's already had a huge effect this summer.
Allow me to explain. The entire guiding principle of most cap-related decisions in the past two decades is that the cap will almost always go up and sure as heck won't go down. It's embedded in the contracts, too, most of which contain either 8 percent or 10.5 percent annual raises. Thus teams feel safe gambling on a $5 million player. If they're wrong, the cap will effectively erase the mistake in a season or two by continually rising.
In the current environment, however, some teams are going to be completely whipsawed by a cap that goes down just as their salaries go up. Clubs that have several players with long-term deals could be well under the tax threshold in 2009-10, and then be well over it in 2010-11 with more or less the same players. This is a real threat for the Philadelphia 76ers and Indiana in particular, and it could grab several other teams depending on what transpires in the coming months.
Those two clubs aren't in the worst situations, however. The New Orleans Hornets are not only over this season's tax line; they're also several million above next season's projected threshold even if they cut Hilton Armstrong (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2984) and Julian Wright (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3241). Or how about Denver? The Nuggets' starting five makes them a tax team even in the league's most optimistic scenario, at $66 million, and that's before adding Chris Andersen (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1135), Ty Lawson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=4000) and at least six other players to the payroll.
Wait, there's more. The Charlotte Bobcats and Golden State Warriors are close enough to the tax that signing a player to the midlevel exception this summer would put them over next season, even if they don't use their draft picks a year from now. Now you understand why each has been so quiet this offseason. And wonder of wonders, even cheapo Memphis could threaten the tax line if the Griz get a high lottery pick and drop another $10 million or so to keep Rudy Gay (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3005).
That doesn't include the usual high-spending teams that are likely to go far past the tax threshold. The Lakers are looking at a $25 million tax bill even after holding the line on contracts for Trevor Ariza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2426) and Lamar Odom (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=617), while the Orlando Magic is looking at nearly as large an assessment without nearly the same revenue streams. The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks also will be way over if they hope to keep some semblance of their current rosters together, and San Antonio may join them if it wants to keep free-agent-to-be Manu Ginobili (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=272).
This was liable to happen at some point, of course; the cap wasn't going to keep going up forever. Nonetheless, teams that were caught holding the wrong cards at the wrong time feel burned, especially because the guidance didn't come until well after most of the contracts had been agreed to. Essentially, the horse has already left the barn.
"We felt we were conservative," one such team exec told me when the league's memo came out, "[but] you're shooting in the dark."
So why we are we talking so much about the luxury-tax bill for two years from now? Because the repercussions already are being felt, and will be throughout the league until the 2011 trade deadline.
Take Philadelphia, for instance. The Sixers were at next season's projected tax line even without re-signing Andre Miller (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=557), and that doesn't account for a draft pick next year, either. Now you understand why they showed amazingly little enthusiasm for re-signing one of their best players. I'm told Miller entered free agency looking for a $40 million deal, but with cap space tight and his own team sitting things out he had to settle for a third of that.
Miller isn't the only one whose situation changed because of the plummeting tax line. Linas Kleiza (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2770) of Denver, Ramon Sessions (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3231) of Milwaukee and Raymond Felton (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2753) of Charlotte are nominally restricted free agents, but given their team's tax situations it's hard to imagine any of the three getting market-rate offers from their current employers. Jarrett Jack (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2768) was in the same situation before Toronto came to his rescue.
In addition to the teams I mentioned above, several other clubs are going to have to tread very carefully to avoid the tax line next season, including second-tier contenders like Atlanta, Toronto, Detroit, Portland and Washington.
And now that the A-list free agents are off the board, we're seeing the chilling impact it's had on signings. A lot of people are blaming the economy, and while that's been important in restricting the spending of a couple of teams (Sacramento and New Jersey most prominently), it's the tax that's been the much larger issue.
For instance, the threat of a tax hit a year from now is why several productive unrestricted free agents (such as Drew Gooden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1711), Hakim Warrick (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2794) and Rasho Nesterovic (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=598)) had to settle for one-year deals that paid them reasonably this season but wouldn't impact their new clubs' tax number for the crucial 2010-11 season. And it's why several others (such as Allen Iverson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=366), Flip Murray and Joe Smith (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=788)) still don't have a uniform for next season.
Younger players looking for multiyear deals have been burned even worse than the vets. Quality restricted free agents such as David Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2772), Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2782), Glen Davis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3200) and the trio mentioned above don't have deals for next season and don't seem particularly close to signing one, even though they're widely acknowledged to be desirable assets. It's why Josh Childress (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2373) is back in Greece and Carlos Delfino (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1999) might be going back to Russia.
Of course, anything that creates losers also creates winners. Those teams that are under the cap this season and next basically won the lottery, because teams such as New Orleans, Utah and Philadelphia will clamor for the privilege of dumping a contract on them.
The biggest winner of all, however, might be Miami. While several teams' hopes of cap space were severely diminished by the projected salary cap dip -- most notably New York's sugarplum dreams of inking two max contracts at once -- the Heat are unaffected. They have virtually no money on the books beyond this season and could add one max contract and another fairly expensive star, all while keeping Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1987).
No wonder the Miami Heat have been quiet this summer and happily let Jamario Moon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3249) scoot off to Cleveland. For all the talk from Wade about threatening to bolt if the Heat aren't better this year, it's clear Miami's best shot at contending is to try to find Wade two stellar teammates next season and then continue to build in the following seasons … when the cap and tax levels project to rise just like the good old days.
Unfortunately, for most of the league's 30 teams, the bombshell in that 10th paragraph was far more unsettling. Fans already are weary of hearing about the luxury tax in trade conversations, but in the coming 12 months they're going to hear more of it than they ever imagined.
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here (http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/mailbagESPN?event_id=7936).

[Culburn369]

And a select one for Knick fans:

Updated: August 12, 2009, 11:55 AM ET
Is Knicks' dream scenario still possible?


Comment (http://myespn.go.com/conversation/story?id=4392671) Email (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=Knicks-090812#) Print (http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/print?id=4392671&type=story) Share (http://javascript<b></b>:void(0);)
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ESPN.com
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http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2009/0811/nba_a_curry01_576.jpgAP Photo/Julie Jacobson

The Knicks still need to unload Eddy Curry's contract if they plan to make a big splash next summer.

When Donnie Walsh took over the Knicks in the spring of 2008, the task of rebuilding in New York was dubbed "Mission Impossible" by many of his peers.
As we get closer and closer to the summer of 2010, the undertaking seems aptly named. The salary cap is shrinking, the Knicks' top free agents are demanding huge contracts, and they are still without a solid talent base to lure top free agents next summer. So the Knicks' championship-contending restoration appears to be on shaky ground.
After all the damage done by former team president and coach Isiah Thomas, Walsh knew it would take a perfect storm of circumstances to get the Knicks back on the road to a championship.
Walsh, however, had a solid four-part plan to make it happen.
Phase 1 was to get rid of Thomas and replace him with a head coach who played an entertaining style of basketball that players in the league loved to play. Walsh was quick to move Isiah out of his coaching- and front-office roles and into an advisory role, and then hit a huge home run last summer when he outbid the Bulls for former Suns coach Mike D'Antoni.
In Phoenix, D'Antoni had been the architect of the league's most dynamic offense, and he had the reputation as a "players' coach." He had developed a great rapport with a number of the NBA's elite players through his work with Team USA.
Phase 2 was to start shedding some of the troubled players on New York's roster. The team bought out Stephon Marbury (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=509) and traded Jamal Crawford (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=165), Zach Randolph (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1017) and Jerome James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=383). While Walsh would love to trade a few other players on the Knicks' roster (yes, I'm talking about you, Eddy Curry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=990)), for the most part Walsh's moves have created better chemistry for the Knicks and have helped reduce the highest payroll in the NBA.
Phase 3 has been rockier. The plan was to restock the Knicks' talent pool via the draft. Rookies have low salaries and high upside, and given the Knicks' lack of talent the team hoped it could strike gold once or twice in the draft. While it's still very early, things haven't gone according to plan so far. The Knicks' top targets the past two years have been off the draft board when they drafted.
In 2008, their two favorites -- Derrick Rose (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3456) and O.J. Mayo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3450) -- were gone, so they settled for Danilo Gallinari (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3428). While Gallinari showed enormous promise in Europe, he hurt his back in the summer league and played sparingly for the Knicks in his rookie season while he tried to rehab. Meanwhile, the Knicks passed on several prospects in the '08 draft -- like Brook Lopez (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3448), Eric Gordon (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3431) and Anthony Randolph (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3455) -- who look like potential stars down the road.
In 2009, Walsh and D'Antoni had their hearts set on Davidson shooting star Stephen Curry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3975). However, the Warriors took him one place ahead of the Knicks, who settled on Arizona forward Jordan Hill (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3994). While Hill has upside, too, he's closer to Dale Davis (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=187) than Amare Stoudemire (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1727).
And what about 2010? In 2005, Isiah agreed to send that first-round pick to Phoenix as part of the Marbury trade. The Suns then traded it to Utah. There are no protections left on the pick. It's gone.
Phase 4 appears to be turning into a disaster. The plan was for the Knicks to get $35 million to $40 million below the cap so they could lure a pair of young superstars in 2010. New York has been eyeing LeBron James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966) and Chris Bosh (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1977). But Dwyane Wade (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1987) would suffice.
It seemed the Knicks were off to a good start last year when they found ways to move Randolph and Crawford for contracts that expired in the summer of 2010. But circumstances (some of which are beyond the Knicks' control) seem to be quickly snuffing out the dream.
For starters, the Knicks were counting on a salary cap in the range of $62 million to $64 million for the 2010-11 season. That was a very realistic prediction in the summer of 2008 and into the spring of 2009. However, once the economic crisis hit the NBA, things fell apart.
The league announced in July that, for the first time in years, the salary cap would decrease for the 2009-10 season. And, as part of the same memo, the league warned that the cap could fall even further for 2010-11 -- between 5 percent and 10 percent. If the cap falls 5 percent, it would be at $53.6 million for 2010-11. If it falls further (and several NBA cap gurus are telling ESPN.com that a $51 million number is more realistic), the Knicks could be looking at a cap number that is $10 million to $13 million less than they predicted.
Second, New York has been unable to trade two 2010 cap killers -- Curry and Jared Jeffries (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1717). Curry is slated to make $11.3 million in 2010. Jeffries is set to make $6.9 million. Interestingly, Walsh passed on a chance to move Jeffries to the Kings for the expiring contract of Kenny Thomas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=849) at the trade deadline last February. That could really come back to haunt the Knicks.
Third, when the Knicks decided to clear maximum cap space in 2010, it would've been hard to predict that two of their young players -- David Lee (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2772) and Nate Robinson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2782) -- would develop so fast under D'Antoni. Both players are restricted free agents this summer. Lee is searching for a long-term contract in excess of $10 million per year. Robinson is looking for something in the area of $5 million per year. So far, the Knicks are at a stalemate with both players. If they sign them to long-term deals, they lose virtually all cap flexibility in 2010. If they don't (or if Lee and Robinson decide to take their one-year qualifying offers) the team most likely will lose them without compensation.
Finally, a Knicks team without Lee or Robinson and without the cap room to sign multiple elite free agents no longer looks that appealing to free agents like LeBron James. There just isn't, as of yet, enough supporting talent to make the Knicks a contender if LeBron joins them. That raises the question that no one in New York wants to talk about. Yes, New York is a great market and D'Antoni is a great coach. But would LeBron really bolt the Cavs -- a championship contender -- to play on a rebuilding team like the Knicks? What does all of this mean for the future of the Knicks? It's not pretty.
They basically have three options:

Option 1: Clear More Cap Space


This option could be dubbed "Mission Impossible II."
Walsh has been working furiously this summer to move Curry and/or Jeffries for contracts that expire next summer. It's highly unlikely he can move Curry. Jeffries is a little more realistic. But if he could trade both of them, he could clear an extra $18 million in room and have around $40 million to play with next summer.
If he can make it happen, the Knicks would be back on track to be a major player for LeBron. Of course, this option comes with a few major caveats.
The first is that the Knicks would have only four players under contract going into next summer. They'd have to spend their $40 million on eight players ... not two or three. But theoretically, at least, they could give two max deals and sign the rest of the team with the $6 million to $8 million that remained.
The second caveat is that this would mean they likely would lose Lee and Robinson -- weakening the team even further.

Option 2: Lower Your Sights


If Walsh can't move Curry or Jeffries, the Knicks should be somewhere between $21 million and $23 million under the cap going into next summer if they waive both Lee and Robinson. However, they'd have just six players under contract.
That's still enough room to sign one elite player like LeBron. However, they'd have roughly just $5 million to $7 million to sign five other players. Would LeBron really come with such a weak supporting cast?
Of course, LeBron, Bosh and Dwyane Wade aren't the only free agents available. As I detailed in my sneak peek (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=2010FreeAgents-090803) at the free-agent class of 2010, there are a lot of good players available. But would any of them come to the Knicks? Kobe Bryant (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=110) and Joe Johnson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1007) are talking extensions with their clubs. Paul Pierce (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=662) and Dirk Nowitzki (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=609) are likely to stay put. Restricted free agents like Rajon Rondo (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3026) and Rudy Gay (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3005) are notoriously difficult to steal away because their home teams have the right to match any offer.
That leaves a few players like Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1703), who seem unhappy where they are. Both players are very good, but they can't single-handedly rebuild a team -- and given their injury history, I'm not sure you'd want them to.
Or the Knicks can try to use their cap space in trades. With the luxury-tax threshold also decreasing significantly next year, Walsh should encounter a number of desperate GMs trying to shed payroll to avoid the tax. The problem with that strategy is that it's really a crapshoot. It's hard to predict, ahead of time, what players will be available to build your team.

Option 3: Stick With What You Have


This is an unpopular option, but it may be the most realistic for the Knicks. With little chance of clearing big cap room next summer and few other good options left on the table if LeBron, Bosh and Wade say no, New York may have to be patient.
If the team can sign Lee and Robinson to reasonable contracts, money will be available to add a player or two via free agency while keeping the young core intact.
In the summer of 2011, the team will have another shot at free agency when Curry and Jeffries come off the books. A number of interesting players, including Tony Parker (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1015) and Yao Ming (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1722), will be free agents. Maybe by then the Knicks' young players will start showing some promise and Walsh will have an easier sell to a veteran.