turner overratted...i dont think stats lie..but whatever
Michael Turner said last year was like his rookie season, and who can blame him for feeling that way.
After spending four years playing behind LaDainian Tomlinson in San Diego, Turner went to Atlanta as a free agent and became a star.
He showed off his skills with 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns and finished as the No. 2 running back in the majority of Fantasy leagues. It was exactly the type of year Turner hoped for, and the Falcons couldn't have asked for a better payout on their investment.
But Falcons coach Mike Smith may have overused Turner in his breakout 2008 season, riding him to an improbable playoff run.
He led the NFL with 376 attempts and was the centerpiece in Atlanta's offense with rookie Matt Ryan learning the ropes under center. But every running back who has carried the ball at least 370 times in the past 20 years has suffered the following season.
Turner is hoping to break that streak, but history is not on his side. It could be a tough year for Turner, and it's something to consider on Draft Day.
"I'm not concerned about that," Turner said in a recent phone interview with CBSSports.com. "It's football. I can't sit there and count the carries, and neither can the coaches. We just have to play and see what happens."
The "Curse of 370," which was first pointed out by Football Outsiders founder Aaron Schatz in 2004, has a long history. Since 1988, 17 running backs have had at least 370 carries. None have improved their rushing yards or touchdowns in the following season, and eight (Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, Curtis Martin, Jamal Lewis, Edgerrin James, Jamal Anderson, Terrell Davis and Barry Foster) suffered injuries, some even career-ending.
Ricky Williams also had a brief retirement after two consecutive seasons of at least 380 carries in 2002-03, citing wear-and-tear issues. The average decline for the previous 16 running backs with at least 370 carries has been 771 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns, which would put Turner at under 1,000 yards rushing and seven touchdowns this season.
Turner isn't worried about a breakdown. His previous high for carries in a season was 80 playing behind Tomlinson in 2006, which is why he feels like his career is just getting started.
"I spent four years being a backup, so I don't have much wear and tear," Turner said. "I feel fresh. I feel like this is just my second or third year in the league."
Turner can point to Tomlinson as a beacon of hope. Tomlinson is one of the few running backs who made it through consecutive 16-game seasons coming off a 370-carry campaign in 2002, and he only suffered a slight decline in production. Emmitt Smith had productive years twice after 370 carry seasons in 1992 and 1995, and Eric Dickerson also played well after a 370-carry year in 1988.
Michael Turner ran over some of the worst run defenses in the NFL last year. He rushed for 1,699 rushing yards and 17 touchdowns in 2009, but a good portion of his success came against five of the seven lowest-ranked run defenses in the league in Detroit, Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis and Green Bay. Turner totaled 792 rushing yards and seven touchdowns against those teams. That's almost half of his production, and this year he doesn't face one run defense ranked in the bottom 10 based on last year's totals.
Turner vs. the worst run defenses in '08
Opponent Rank vs. Run Results
Week 1 vs. DET No. 32 22 car., 220 yds., 2 TDs
Week 3 vs. KC No. 30 23 car., 104 yds., 3 TDs
Week 5 at GB No. 26 26 car., 121 yds., TD
Week 9 at OAK No. 31 31 car., 139 yds.
Week 17 vs. STL No. 29 25 car., 208 yds., TD
Turner vs. the best run defenses in '08
Opponent Rank vs. Run Results
Week 6 vs. CHI No. 5 25 car., 54 yds.
Week 8 at PHI No. 4 17 car., 58 yds.
Week 16 at MIN No. 1 19 car., 70 yds., TD
Turner can still be an effective and dynamic running back this season. He has a tremendous offensive line and an improved offense with Matt Ryan, Roddy White and now Tony Gonzalez.
Turner also benefits from being one of the best goal-line options in the NFL. He led the league with 70 carries inside the red zone last year and came away from 15 touchdowns inside the 20-yard line.
He worked hard this offseason to remain in shape and also wants to improve as a receiver. He only had six catches for 41 receiving yards last season.
"I just have to continue to bring the same intensity and not get too comfortable," Turner said.
Turner also has to hope he gets to face some poor run defenses like he did last year. He dominated Detroit, Kansas City, Green Bay, Oakland and St. Louis, which were among the worst run defenses in the league, for 792 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He also ran over Carolina, San Diego and Tampa Bay, but the majority of his success came against those other teams.
This year, he doesn't face one team ranked in the bottom 10 run defenses based on last year's totals. It could be a long year.
You should still draft Turner in the first round in all Fantasy leagues. He is a featured back and has the chance to score plenty of touchdowns for an explosive offense.
But he will likely see a decline in production based on his carries from last season and could struggle with the tougher schedule. He should not be drafted No. 1 overall or even in the Top 3 with Adrian Peterson, Maurice Jones-Drew and Matt Forte all better options.
All we're saying is to be careful with Turner on Draft Day. If you reach for him too high you could be disappointed.
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