Bill becomes the first major hurricane of the 2009 Atlantic season.

[Cry Havoc]

Per NHC.

11:00 PM AST Tue Aug 18
Location: 17.2°N 53.4°W
Max sustained: 125 mph
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 952 mb

000
WTNT63 KNHC 190030
TCUAT3
HURRICANE BILL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032009
830 PM AST TUE AUG 18 2009

...BILL BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT BILL HAS
STRENGTHENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125
MPH...205 KM/HR. BILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. A COMPLETE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST.

KIMBERLAIN/PASCH


http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huirloop.html

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Looks like he's on a WNW track right now, heading straight for the Lesser Antilles.

EDIT: Looks like he's experiencing some dry air to his W side. Could slow him down and weaken him a bit.

[Cry Havoc]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/anim16wv.html

Good IR animation here.

Current models are forecasting Bill to miss the NE seaboard by about 200 miles (mean), though some models have him bearing right down on the coast.

And this:

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?act=attach&type=post&id=50663

Is downright scary.

Better stay tuned to this 'cane, could be a bad one for the northern coast.

[Cry Havoc]

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1250666765.gif

Very frightening path projections as they are now much closer to the coast than they were before. A large impact on NYC is not out of the question here.

[JudynTX]

:wow Damn Bill!

[Mr.Bill]

Ohhhh noooooooooooooo!!!

[manufan10]

Ohhhh noooooooooooooo!!!

:lol

[CubanMustGo]

Very frightening path projections as they are now much closer to the coast than they were before. A large impact on NYC is not out of the question here.

Do you have a water temp graphic? Usually by the time storms get that far north the lower water temps have killed development, and they're going quite rapidly.

[Cry Havoc]

Bill has reached Category 4 status with sustained winds (1 min) of 135 mph.

Everyone on the Eastern Seaboard from Washington D.C. north should be watching this storm.




Do you have a water temp graphic? Usually by the time storms get that far north the lower water temps have killed development, and they're going quite rapidly.

This isn't necessarily true. Yes, cooler water will end the life of a hurricane, but it's a matter of HOW cool the water is, but also how fast the hurricane is moving. If it's moving fast enough, the cold water will not have enough time to dissipate it unless it the cooler waters start very far out to sea.

[CosmicCowboy]

Bill has reached Category 4 status with sustained winds (1 min) of 135 mph.

Everyone on the Eastern Seaboard from Washington D.C. north should be watching this storm.

The worst that will probably happen is some coastal erosion from big waves...predicted conditions are just not there for it to make landfall on the east coast.

[Extra Stout]

[New Englander]Why do those idiot Texans choose to live close to the coast where hurricanes can hit? Dumb rednecks.[/New Englander]

[JudynTX]

Everyone on the Eastern Seaboard from Washington D.C. north should be watching this storm.

Not my pandas @ National Zoo. :(

[Strike]

Just another friendly reminder to me of why I don't ever want to live on the east coast.

[Cry Havoc]

[New Englander]Why do those idiot Texans choose to live close to the coast where hurricanes can hit? Dumb rednecks.[/New Englander]

:lol

In fairness, there's a bit of a frequency difference between the Northeastern Seaboard and Texas in terms of the # of hurricanes coming ashore.

:lol

[Cry Havoc]

The worst that will probably happen is some coastal erosion from big waves...predicted conditions are just not there for it to make landfall on the east coast.

That's by no means certain right now. Hurricane forecasting is still in it's infancy, and the there is some disagreement in the models at the moment where Bill will go.

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12468-1250700687.png

That's pretty damn close to the coast. A bit of a West turn in Bill now, or if he decides to speed up suddenly puts him right along the coastline.

[CubanMustGo]

We need that stupid high pressure system that's been camped out here all summer to suddenly move to the east coast.

[Cry Havoc]

Another potential track:

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1250701823.png

That is ~100 miles off-shore. Way too close to say he's going to miss the NE coast.

[Cry Havoc]

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1250706082.gif

Uh.

Shit.

:( Not good at all.

[lebomb]

If Bill rolled over south texas.............the San Antonio domed force field would shatter that storm.

[SonOfAGun]

Pretty sure many Texans are praying for a hurricane to hit Texas right about now.

If you do not have access to a pool, you are pretty much SOL for finding a cool wet place in this state :lol

[grjr]

I'd settle for a warm wet place.

[PM5K]

When did you become Manny, and if you are Manny who is Manny?

[ManuTP9]

Holy shit . hope it doesnt hit jersey hard

[Trainwreck2100]

manhattan's gonna get fucked up

[Trainwreck2100]

but hey can you say stock holiday?

[sabar]

99% total miss, next.

[CubanMustGo]

http://icons.wunderground.com/data/storm_radar/bill03l.2009082000_anim.gif?cache=101

[Cry Havoc]

99% total miss, next.

No way. This is a massive hurricane. There is 0% chance he'll miss the coast. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the center of circulation. At the very least, the Southern NE Coast will experience massive erosion, some coastal flooding, and wave heights of 16-24 feet.

I guess you can consider that a "total miss", but people can still lose their lives from dangerous rip currents or lightning from outlying rainbands/thunderstorms.

[Cry Havoc]

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1250787208.gif

100% total miss, eh sabar?

Bill is a Cat 3 hurricane right now, but as wind shear decreases over the next 24 hours it should re-strengthen.

[Jekka]

:lol

In fairness, there's a bit of a frequency difference between the Northeastern Seaboard and Texas in terms of the # of hurricanes coming ashore.

:lol

Hmm - not sure I agree with that. I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but I'm fairly certain the average number of landfalls on the New England Coast is roughly the same for the Texas Coast. Also, even if the tropical cyclone numbers are higher they also deal with noreasters and other cold core systems that might as well be hurricanes.


-Forgot I was on Jess computer -- Manny

[Jekka]

No way. This is a massive hurricane. There is 0% chance he'll miss the coast. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles out from the center of circulation. At the very least, the Southern NE Coast will experience massive erosion, some coastal flooding, and wave heights of 16-24 feet.

I guess you can consider that a "total miss", but people can still lose their lives from dangerous rip currents or lightning from outlying rainbands/thunderstorms.

Pretty sure that no place on the NE coast is going to get Hurricane force winds. You gotta remember a couple of things:

1. Strongest winds are always in the NE quadrant - away from the coast in this case.
2. Wind fields dramaticaly contract and weaken as a storm moves near a cost. Even the flat ground of a coastal plain provides a substantial amount of resistance via friction that will remove energy from a storm.

Also - when a storm reaches the NE area and is off the coast the effects can be dramatically weaker on the western side of the storm of the storm because the wind is moving in the direction opposite of the systems movement.


Bummed I missed the first storm of the season but glad its not going to ruin anyone's lives.

-Manny (still too lazy to login)

[Cry Havoc]

Hmm - not sure I agree with that. I'm too lazy to look up the numbers, but I'm fairly certain the average number of landfalls on the New England Coast is roughly the same for the Texas Coast. Also, even if the tropical cyclone numbers are higher they also deal with noreasters and other cold core systems that might as well be hurricanes.


-Forgot I was on Jess computer -- Manny

Okay, but even assuming that's true, the NE coast has only had one major hurricane hit north of DC, to my knowledge (the Long Island Express in 1938 for those who don't know, cause I'm sure Manny does).

I seriously doubt NE gets as many hurricanes as Texas, though, and the possibility of experiencing a cat 5 along the NE coast is virtually nil.


Pretty sure that no place on the NE coast is going to get Hurricane force winds. You gotta remember a couple of things:

1. Strongest winds are always in the NE quadrant - away from the coast in this case.
2. Wind fields dramaticaly contract and weaken as a storm moves near a cost. Even the flat ground of a coastal plain provides a substantial amount of resistance via friction that will remove energy from a storm.

I never stated that the coast was going to experience 74+ mph winds. I was using the hurricane force winds as an illustration of the size of Bill, who at the time was a massive hurricane with a huge windfield. If he drifted even 100 miles East, saying it's a "total miss" is ridiculous, because he's still going to have a lot of impact along the coastline. Also, if a storm is going to hit the NYC area, it's likely going to be moving at 25+ mph, which is going to limit the amount of time for weakening it has.

However, this is all a bit moot now. Dry air got to Bill and tore him apart. He's barely hanging on at the moment and pressure is over 960 mb.

Good to see you back online and following the 'canes, Manny! :toast

[Cry Havoc]

http://forums.accuweather.com/uploads/post-12024-1250987842.jpg

99% total miss, eh?