tlongII
08-25-2009, 12:16 PM
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=13660
Let's be honest—the Top 5 Shooting Guards article needed a second go-round. Leaving out Brandon Roy in the first version of this piece (known by more than one reader as Roy-Gate, which I found humorous) was thick-headed on my part, and he and the rest of the shooting guards in the NBA deserve a little closer look at who stands where for the 2010 season. So let's look at this very closely and carefully, and see if we can't get a little nearer to what's right and good in the second incarnation of this list.
A shooting guard has to do one of two things to play a major role on any NBA team—score prolifically or defend prolifically—and the really great ones manage to do both. It's no secret that oftentimes the shooting guard is the best offensive player on the floor, which means that the guy guarding him has be pretty good, too. There's a lot of pressure on these players, not only because the really good ones tend to be stars, but also because when the game's on the line, they're the guys who are expected to create a shot for themselves and nail the game-winners. Not always, but a strong majority of the time.
The following list takes these things into consideration when it comes to the rankings. There are a ton of serviceable shooting guards in the NBA, but only five can make this list as the best, and only five more can make honorable mention. There are those who will be left out, but that's the beauty of intelligent debate—we get to argue about how right or wrong I am.
Keep in mind, this list is ranking the top shooting guards for this upcoming season. I'm examining who is going to be the best, not just who actually is the best. I understand that sometimes you can't divorce those two things, but it's important to remember that the tie-breaker between two close players usually has to do with where that player is headed, not just where he has been.
For the sake of this article I looked through all 30 team's depth charts and picked out what I believed to be the 20 best shooting guards in the league. I left out Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala because even though he can play both the two and the three, he's pretty obviously the team's starting small forward. That may change if Thaddeus Young continues to improve and moves Iguodala into the starting shooting guard role, but that isn't the case yet. I've also left out Josh Howard for now, because even though he'll play shooting guard this season it isn't really his natural position, and we've got no way of knowing if that's where he'll stay.
Taking those two out of the equation, here's what we're left with: Joe Johnson (ATL), Ray Allen (BOS), Richard Hamilton (DET), Stephen Jackson (GSW), Ben Gordon (DET), Tracy McGrady (HOU), Kobe Bryant (LAL), O.J. Mayo (MEM), Dwyane Wade (MIA), Michael Redd, (MIL), Vince Carter (ORL), Jason Richardson (PHX), Brandon Roy (POR), Kevin Martin (SAC), Manu Ginobili (SAS), Jason Terry (DAL), Eric Gordon (LAC), Courtney Lee (NJN), Larry Hughes (NYK), Mike Miller (WAS).
All that said, here's the list:
#1 – Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers – Kobe is transcendent, and other than LeBron James he's the only guy in the league I can say that about right now. This is the man who scored 81 points in the modern era. This is the 2008 MVP. This is the man with four championship rings. He hits the huge shots, plays very tough defense, and is one of the top two or three most competitive players in the game.
Saying all of this isn't meant to put down Dwyane Wade, and if we were spreading the votes out for this Top Five beyond just one guy, Wade would certainly get his fair share of #1 props. But Kobe is the best in the game right now. Love him or hate him, there's nobody better, and that's why he's the defending champion. Not only that, but he looks poised to be back in the Finals again this year, while Wade and his Miami HEAT don't even appear to be close. There's a lot more to why Kobe narrowly beats out Wade for the top spot, but we have to explore what Wade does a little bit more before we get to that…
#2 – Dwyane Wade, Miami HEAT – In terms of numbers, Wade was a better basketball player than Bryant last season. Wade's PER was six full points higher than Bryant's, and with 30.2 points (league leader), 7.5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game, Wade out-did Bryant by 3.4 points and 2.6 assists a night. Bryant averaged two-tenths of a rebound more than Wade, but whoopty-doo.
So how, then, can Wade be considered only the second-best shooting guard when the numbers seem to prove otherwise? We've seen Wade's clutch shots, the strangling defense, the dunks, the long bombs; we know what he can do. Truth be told, he does most of the same things that Kobe does. Everything else being more or less equal, the nod goes to Bryant for two reasons: rings and experience.
Bryant is four years older than Wade but has seven more years of league experience, and while Wade does have a championship ring of his own (and a very large one at that), it's still three fewer than Kobe has. When Wade logs his 13th or 14th year in the league, we can reevaluate who had the better career, but for now it's hard to argue that that guy is Bryant, no matter how good Wade is and will continue to be.
#3 – Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers – When I first re-mapped this piece out, Roy was ranked here at #3. Then I switched him and Joe Johnson and thought that felt a little better. Then, just a short time before I submitted the article I decided to switch the two guys again. It was a tough decision, but in the end I have to think that Roy is on the verge of superstardom this year, and while Johnson is a great player he never really did (and probably never will) quite get to that echelon of stardom. Besides, I owe Roy some props anyway, right?
For one, the kid was an All-Star his second season, and was again last winter as well. To prove how important that is, Deron Williams—who many would argue is a top-two point guard in the entire league right now—has yet to make a Western Conference All-Star squad while Roy has done so twice in his first three seasons. Coaches voted in Roy over Williams not once, but twice. That says something for how good this kid is.
While Johnson has been one of the best shooting guards in the league the last few years, there's no questioning that Roy has gotten off to a quicker professional start than his colleague, and there's little question that by the end of Roy's career he'll have put together a much more impressive resume. He may even have a ring or two, based purely on the talent and positive future of his Blazers. Not only that, but Roy's PER (24.08) is third among shooting guards behind the two guys rated above him here, while Johnson sits in ninth with a PER of 18.26. Considering both guys are relatively equal right now and that Roy probably still hasn't reached his full potential, it had to be Roy that took the third spot here.
#4 – Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks – Almost as tough as deciding between Kobe and D-Wade was figuring out who got the nod between Johnson and Roy. Both guys were largely responsible for pulling their once-sad franchises out of the doldrums, and both guys are now the unquestioned leaders of what could be called the most promising young teams in their respective conferences.
As far as numbers are concerned, the big ones are practically identical; both Roy and Johnson sit somewhere around that 21-22ppg, 5-6apg, and 4-5rpg range. Both guys defend reasonably well, both guys would take the final shot if the game was on the line, and both guys are All-Stars.
Roy edged out Johnson, though, for the simple reason that he's going to be the noticeably better player in just another year or two, and because Roy has been a stud out of the gate. It took Johnson a little longer to get rolling.
In his early years with the Boston Celtics, Johnson was barely more than expendable bench guy, but by the time he left Phoenix for Atlanta he was averaging over 17 points a night, and he hasn't gone back under 20ppg since becoming a Hawk in 2005. He's been an All-Star each of the last three seasons, and he's turned his team into a perennial playoff contender—one of the few in the East's second tier with even a slight shot at making a Conference Finals sometime soon. Johnson may have put more into the game at this point, but he can't help that what he's done is just a sliver behind what I truly believe Brandon Roy is about to do.
#5 – Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs – On the one hand, Manu missed about half the season last year with nagging ankle issues, but when he's healthy he's one of the most athletic, exciting swingmen in the league. In his 44 games in 2008-09 he averaged 15.5ppg—slightly above his career average—but it was only the year before that he racked up a career-high 19.5 ppg. Despite lower scoring, Ginobili's PER was fourth among the league's two guards behind only Wade, Bryant, and Roy. That ankle injury kept him out of the postseason completely last year—something he couldn't have been happy about—but if he's hungry and healthy, he's up there with the best of them.
Honorable Mention:
Vince Carter, Orlando Magic – After having watched this particular YouTube video, my overall view of Vince Carter as an athlete and a competitor was trashed. Yes, the guy's got talent, and yes the guy puts up numbers, but he's only great when he's in the mood to be. It's also no small concern that the number of touches Vince gets in Orlando will be somewhat lower than he's accustomed to. Being a member of the Magic could be the best thing that ever happened to him in his career, or, depending on how he approaches the situation it could further mar his name. Either way, despite all the talent, he's just not competitive enough to be a Top Five guy, but his talent makes it impossible to count him out of the Top Ten.
Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors – Somebody brought up Stephen Jackson in my most recent chat, and I spent the next few days really giving thorough deliberation to where he stands among the league's best two guards (after, of course, I came to the conclusion that we did, in fact, have to classify him as a shooting guard). His numbers last season were impressive—20.7ppg, 6.5apg, and 5.1rpg—but taking into consideration his role as an agitator, defender, and even a facilitator, it's hard to deny his place among the league's elite. Others may be flashier, but this is a guy who just flat-out gets it done.
Ray Allen, Boston Celtics – In last season's amazing first-round series with the Chicago Bulls, Allen hit some of the biggest, most clutch three-point shots in recent Celtics history. It wasn't just one; he did it over and over again. And when he'd hit those big shots and the C's would lose some of those games anyway, nobody in that locker room would leave more upset than Allen. In a lot of ways, he's still got it.
In terms of career accomplishments he falls shy only to Kobe Bryant on this list. He's got his ring, but he's also a nine-time All-Star. When it comes to shooting records, he covers the gamut—Allen holds the NBA record for most three-pointers made (and also attempted) in a single season (269-for-653 in 2006), and shares the record for most three-pointers in a half (8) and most three-pointers in an NBA Finals game (7). He's the long-ball machine with a three-point shootout title under his belt, and if all those other records weren't enough to prove he's the best long-range shooter of his era, here's one last record to top them all off: no active player has more career threes than Allen. He's got 2,299. Shooting guards need to be deep threats, and nobody has been more threatening from out there than this guy.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks – Two of the last three seasons have been miserable for Mike Redd in terms of injuries, which caused him to miss 29 games in 2006-07 and 49 games last year. Some (including myself) would argue that he's in the denouement of his career, but it's impossible to ignore the fact that he's averaged over 21 points a game in each of the last six seasons. He's thirty years old and already relatively rickety, but he's still the best player Milwaukee's got. When healthy he's still racking up big-show minutes, and his jump shot is still one of the most beautiful in the game. When it comes to straight up shooting guards, this is a guy that defines the term.
Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings – Statistically, Martin continues to show improvement. Last year he averaged a career-high 24.6ppg in 2008-2009, but he did it shooting 42% from the field, his lowest mark since his rookie year. Those points were good for seventh in the league in scoring, and his PER (19.25) is seventh among shooting guards. The problem is that PER went down 2.26 points from the previous year, and the Kings got even worse as a basketball team. While injuries may have played a factor last season, one has to wonder if Martin hasn't reached a plateau in his career—if this is what kind of player he's going to be. Where he is now is not bad at all, not by a long shot, but his stats keep him just outside of the league's elite shooting guards for now. He is good enough, though, to round out the Top Ten.
Notable Omissions:
Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets – You've got to play games to be considered one of the best, and you've got to be healthy to play games. T-Mac has missed an average of 27 games per season over the last four years. Sure, he has amazing games once in a while, but consistency and floor time matters. I can't in good conscience put him in the Top Ten when he just can't keep himself healthy.
Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons – Whether he's starting or coming off the bench, this young man is a scoring machine. As long as he gets 30 minutes, Gordon's going to put up 20-22 points pretty consistently. The issue is that he's going to be competing with Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton for shots, and then there's that whole thing about him not really playing defense. As a shooter, he's up there with the best, but as an all-around shooting guard he falls just a little bit short of the league's best.
Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons – Hamilton has always been known as a guy that runs defenders to death the same way Reggie Miller used to, but somehow Hamilton has become less relevant in the last year or two, and he'll probably become even less so this season now that Gordon's playing alongside him and maybe even eventually taking away his starting shooting guard position. His PER was 16.93 last year, good for only 13th among shooting guards, and his lowest since 2004-2005. He's still scoring right around his 17.9ppg career scoring average, but he's quieter about it and scoring those points on a bit lower field goal percentage.
So there it is. Take 2 for the now-infamous Top 5 Shooting Guards list, which got me more flak than any other article I've ever written for HOOPSWORLD over the course of the last 4+ years, is in the books. Hopefully this version gives you readers a little more detailed version of the original. Let the intelligent debate begin, and let Roy-Gate '09 officially come to an end.
Let's be honest—the Top 5 Shooting Guards article needed a second go-round. Leaving out Brandon Roy in the first version of this piece (known by more than one reader as Roy-Gate, which I found humorous) was thick-headed on my part, and he and the rest of the shooting guards in the NBA deserve a little closer look at who stands where for the 2010 season. So let's look at this very closely and carefully, and see if we can't get a little nearer to what's right and good in the second incarnation of this list.
A shooting guard has to do one of two things to play a major role on any NBA team—score prolifically or defend prolifically—and the really great ones manage to do both. It's no secret that oftentimes the shooting guard is the best offensive player on the floor, which means that the guy guarding him has be pretty good, too. There's a lot of pressure on these players, not only because the really good ones tend to be stars, but also because when the game's on the line, they're the guys who are expected to create a shot for themselves and nail the game-winners. Not always, but a strong majority of the time.
The following list takes these things into consideration when it comes to the rankings. There are a ton of serviceable shooting guards in the NBA, but only five can make this list as the best, and only five more can make honorable mention. There are those who will be left out, but that's the beauty of intelligent debate—we get to argue about how right or wrong I am.
Keep in mind, this list is ranking the top shooting guards for this upcoming season. I'm examining who is going to be the best, not just who actually is the best. I understand that sometimes you can't divorce those two things, but it's important to remember that the tie-breaker between two close players usually has to do with where that player is headed, not just where he has been.
For the sake of this article I looked through all 30 team's depth charts and picked out what I believed to be the 20 best shooting guards in the league. I left out Philadelphia's Andre Iguodala because even though he can play both the two and the three, he's pretty obviously the team's starting small forward. That may change if Thaddeus Young continues to improve and moves Iguodala into the starting shooting guard role, but that isn't the case yet. I've also left out Josh Howard for now, because even though he'll play shooting guard this season it isn't really his natural position, and we've got no way of knowing if that's where he'll stay.
Taking those two out of the equation, here's what we're left with: Joe Johnson (ATL), Ray Allen (BOS), Richard Hamilton (DET), Stephen Jackson (GSW), Ben Gordon (DET), Tracy McGrady (HOU), Kobe Bryant (LAL), O.J. Mayo (MEM), Dwyane Wade (MIA), Michael Redd, (MIL), Vince Carter (ORL), Jason Richardson (PHX), Brandon Roy (POR), Kevin Martin (SAC), Manu Ginobili (SAS), Jason Terry (DAL), Eric Gordon (LAC), Courtney Lee (NJN), Larry Hughes (NYK), Mike Miller (WAS).
All that said, here's the list:
#1 – Kobe Bryant, L.A. Lakers – Kobe is transcendent, and other than LeBron James he's the only guy in the league I can say that about right now. This is the man who scored 81 points in the modern era. This is the 2008 MVP. This is the man with four championship rings. He hits the huge shots, plays very tough defense, and is one of the top two or three most competitive players in the game.
Saying all of this isn't meant to put down Dwyane Wade, and if we were spreading the votes out for this Top Five beyond just one guy, Wade would certainly get his fair share of #1 props. But Kobe is the best in the game right now. Love him or hate him, there's nobody better, and that's why he's the defending champion. Not only that, but he looks poised to be back in the Finals again this year, while Wade and his Miami HEAT don't even appear to be close. There's a lot more to why Kobe narrowly beats out Wade for the top spot, but we have to explore what Wade does a little bit more before we get to that…
#2 – Dwyane Wade, Miami HEAT – In terms of numbers, Wade was a better basketball player than Bryant last season. Wade's PER was six full points higher than Bryant's, and with 30.2 points (league leader), 7.5 assists, and 5 rebounds per game, Wade out-did Bryant by 3.4 points and 2.6 assists a night. Bryant averaged two-tenths of a rebound more than Wade, but whoopty-doo.
So how, then, can Wade be considered only the second-best shooting guard when the numbers seem to prove otherwise? We've seen Wade's clutch shots, the strangling defense, the dunks, the long bombs; we know what he can do. Truth be told, he does most of the same things that Kobe does. Everything else being more or less equal, the nod goes to Bryant for two reasons: rings and experience.
Bryant is four years older than Wade but has seven more years of league experience, and while Wade does have a championship ring of his own (and a very large one at that), it's still three fewer than Kobe has. When Wade logs his 13th or 14th year in the league, we can reevaluate who had the better career, but for now it's hard to argue that that guy is Bryant, no matter how good Wade is and will continue to be.
#3 – Brandon Roy, Portland Trail Blazers – When I first re-mapped this piece out, Roy was ranked here at #3. Then I switched him and Joe Johnson and thought that felt a little better. Then, just a short time before I submitted the article I decided to switch the two guys again. It was a tough decision, but in the end I have to think that Roy is on the verge of superstardom this year, and while Johnson is a great player he never really did (and probably never will) quite get to that echelon of stardom. Besides, I owe Roy some props anyway, right?
For one, the kid was an All-Star his second season, and was again last winter as well. To prove how important that is, Deron Williams—who many would argue is a top-two point guard in the entire league right now—has yet to make a Western Conference All-Star squad while Roy has done so twice in his first three seasons. Coaches voted in Roy over Williams not once, but twice. That says something for how good this kid is.
While Johnson has been one of the best shooting guards in the league the last few years, there's no questioning that Roy has gotten off to a quicker professional start than his colleague, and there's little question that by the end of Roy's career he'll have put together a much more impressive resume. He may even have a ring or two, based purely on the talent and positive future of his Blazers. Not only that, but Roy's PER (24.08) is third among shooting guards behind the two guys rated above him here, while Johnson sits in ninth with a PER of 18.26. Considering both guys are relatively equal right now and that Roy probably still hasn't reached his full potential, it had to be Roy that took the third spot here.
#4 – Joe Johnson, Atlanta Hawks – Almost as tough as deciding between Kobe and D-Wade was figuring out who got the nod between Johnson and Roy. Both guys were largely responsible for pulling their once-sad franchises out of the doldrums, and both guys are now the unquestioned leaders of what could be called the most promising young teams in their respective conferences.
As far as numbers are concerned, the big ones are practically identical; both Roy and Johnson sit somewhere around that 21-22ppg, 5-6apg, and 4-5rpg range. Both guys defend reasonably well, both guys would take the final shot if the game was on the line, and both guys are All-Stars.
Roy edged out Johnson, though, for the simple reason that he's going to be the noticeably better player in just another year or two, and because Roy has been a stud out of the gate. It took Johnson a little longer to get rolling.
In his early years with the Boston Celtics, Johnson was barely more than expendable bench guy, but by the time he left Phoenix for Atlanta he was averaging over 17 points a night, and he hasn't gone back under 20ppg since becoming a Hawk in 2005. He's been an All-Star each of the last three seasons, and he's turned his team into a perennial playoff contender—one of the few in the East's second tier with even a slight shot at making a Conference Finals sometime soon. Johnson may have put more into the game at this point, but he can't help that what he's done is just a sliver behind what I truly believe Brandon Roy is about to do.
#5 – Manu Ginobili, San Antonio Spurs – On the one hand, Manu missed about half the season last year with nagging ankle issues, but when he's healthy he's one of the most athletic, exciting swingmen in the league. In his 44 games in 2008-09 he averaged 15.5ppg—slightly above his career average—but it was only the year before that he racked up a career-high 19.5 ppg. Despite lower scoring, Ginobili's PER was fourth among the league's two guards behind only Wade, Bryant, and Roy. That ankle injury kept him out of the postseason completely last year—something he couldn't have been happy about—but if he's hungry and healthy, he's up there with the best of them.
Honorable Mention:
Vince Carter, Orlando Magic – After having watched this particular YouTube video, my overall view of Vince Carter as an athlete and a competitor was trashed. Yes, the guy's got talent, and yes the guy puts up numbers, but he's only great when he's in the mood to be. It's also no small concern that the number of touches Vince gets in Orlando will be somewhat lower than he's accustomed to. Being a member of the Magic could be the best thing that ever happened to him in his career, or, depending on how he approaches the situation it could further mar his name. Either way, despite all the talent, he's just not competitive enough to be a Top Five guy, but his talent makes it impossible to count him out of the Top Ten.
Stephen Jackson, Golden State Warriors – Somebody brought up Stephen Jackson in my most recent chat, and I spent the next few days really giving thorough deliberation to where he stands among the league's best two guards (after, of course, I came to the conclusion that we did, in fact, have to classify him as a shooting guard). His numbers last season were impressive—20.7ppg, 6.5apg, and 5.1rpg—but taking into consideration his role as an agitator, defender, and even a facilitator, it's hard to deny his place among the league's elite. Others may be flashier, but this is a guy who just flat-out gets it done.
Ray Allen, Boston Celtics – In last season's amazing first-round series with the Chicago Bulls, Allen hit some of the biggest, most clutch three-point shots in recent Celtics history. It wasn't just one; he did it over and over again. And when he'd hit those big shots and the C's would lose some of those games anyway, nobody in that locker room would leave more upset than Allen. In a lot of ways, he's still got it.
In terms of career accomplishments he falls shy only to Kobe Bryant on this list. He's got his ring, but he's also a nine-time All-Star. When it comes to shooting records, he covers the gamut—Allen holds the NBA record for most three-pointers made (and also attempted) in a single season (269-for-653 in 2006), and shares the record for most three-pointers in a half (8) and most three-pointers in an NBA Finals game (7). He's the long-ball machine with a three-point shootout title under his belt, and if all those other records weren't enough to prove he's the best long-range shooter of his era, here's one last record to top them all off: no active player has more career threes than Allen. He's got 2,299. Shooting guards need to be deep threats, and nobody has been more threatening from out there than this guy.
Michael Redd, Milwaukee Bucks – Two of the last three seasons have been miserable for Mike Redd in terms of injuries, which caused him to miss 29 games in 2006-07 and 49 games last year. Some (including myself) would argue that he's in the denouement of his career, but it's impossible to ignore the fact that he's averaged over 21 points a game in each of the last six seasons. He's thirty years old and already relatively rickety, but he's still the best player Milwaukee's got. When healthy he's still racking up big-show minutes, and his jump shot is still one of the most beautiful in the game. When it comes to straight up shooting guards, this is a guy that defines the term.
Kevin Martin, Sacramento Kings – Statistically, Martin continues to show improvement. Last year he averaged a career-high 24.6ppg in 2008-2009, but he did it shooting 42% from the field, his lowest mark since his rookie year. Those points were good for seventh in the league in scoring, and his PER (19.25) is seventh among shooting guards. The problem is that PER went down 2.26 points from the previous year, and the Kings got even worse as a basketball team. While injuries may have played a factor last season, one has to wonder if Martin hasn't reached a plateau in his career—if this is what kind of player he's going to be. Where he is now is not bad at all, not by a long shot, but his stats keep him just outside of the league's elite shooting guards for now. He is good enough, though, to round out the Top Ten.
Notable Omissions:
Tracy McGrady, Houston Rockets – You've got to play games to be considered one of the best, and you've got to be healthy to play games. T-Mac has missed an average of 27 games per season over the last four years. Sure, he has amazing games once in a while, but consistency and floor time matters. I can't in good conscience put him in the Top Ten when he just can't keep himself healthy.
Ben Gordon, Detroit Pistons – Whether he's starting or coming off the bench, this young man is a scoring machine. As long as he gets 30 minutes, Gordon's going to put up 20-22 points pretty consistently. The issue is that he's going to be competing with Rodney Stuckey and Rip Hamilton for shots, and then there's that whole thing about him not really playing defense. As a shooter, he's up there with the best, but as an all-around shooting guard he falls just a little bit short of the league's best.
Richard Hamilton, Detroit Pistons – Hamilton has always been known as a guy that runs defenders to death the same way Reggie Miller used to, but somehow Hamilton has become less relevant in the last year or two, and he'll probably become even less so this season now that Gordon's playing alongside him and maybe even eventually taking away his starting shooting guard position. His PER was 16.93 last year, good for only 13th among shooting guards, and his lowest since 2004-2005. He's still scoring right around his 17.9ppg career scoring average, but he's quieter about it and scoring those points on a bit lower field goal percentage.
So there it is. Take 2 for the now-infamous Top 5 Shooting Guards list, which got me more flak than any other article I've ever written for HOOPSWORLD over the course of the last 4+ years, is in the books. Hopefully this version gives you readers a little more detailed version of the original. Let the intelligent debate begin, and let Roy-Gate '09 officially come to an end.