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duncan228
08-25-2009, 02:18 PM
The top 10 lottery busts of the last decade (http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/blog/ball_dont_lie/post/The-top-10-lottery-busts-of-the-last-decade;_ylt=Avxa3NMEOSdUMrb4dUAJ0Na8vLYF?urn=nba,1 84973)
By Kelly Dwyer
Ball Don't Lie

OK, we know the first decade of the 21st century doesn't really end until 2011. We think. But we also know there have been 10 full NBA seasons played since the phrase "Y2K" was on all of our lips (1999-2000), and here at Ball Don't Lie we've decided to use this as an offseason excuse to rank some of the best and not-so-brightest of the 10 campaigns in question. The result? Why, top 10 lists!

There have been 10 drafts since the year 2000, including the year 2000. Seriously. Use your fingers. And, because drafting prospects of any regard is an inexact science, teams are bound to run into some bum picks here and there. Here's our list of the top 10 busts of the decade.

10. Yi Jianlian, Milwaukee Bucks, taken sixth overall in 2007

Some say Yi was born in 1987. Others contend he might have been born a year earlier, or even three years before. Most contend he's a willowy waste of a 7-foot frame, who refuses to get to the line, work on anything but a low-percentage long jumper, while allowing opponents to walk all over him defensively and on the boards. He makes the fringe of this list merely because he's still in the league, but after two full seasons in Milwaukee and New Jersey, it's pretty clear what Yi is all about. And it ain't unrealized potential.

9. Kedrick Brown, Boston Celtics, taken 11th overall in 2001

He wasn't exactly taken ahead of Jordan, Stockton or Malone; but by my count, Brown was selected ahead of 15 players who started an NBA game last year. An athletic ... something, who was working out of a junior college long enough to impress Chris Wallace and the C's, Brown was an immediate washout.

8. Rodney White, Detroit Pistons, taken ninth overall in 2001

He came with a slightly shinier resume than Kedrick Brown, selected with an Andy Katz stamp of approval by Joe Dumars, who was in his first year as Detroit's personnel chief (after merely working as a consultant the year before). White had skills and an offensive touch, but he never put any work into that game of his. He was sent to Denver before being packaged with Nikoloz Tskitishvili and shipped to the Golden State Warriors for a pick that eventually (after being tossed around by several teams) landed the Philadelphia 76ers the rights to Petteri Koponen. History!

7. Yaroslav Korolev, Los Angeles Clippers, taken 12th overall in 2005

I watch a lot of basketball, and as a curious sort, I'm often on the lookout during garbage time for prospects both heralded and unknown. And yet, despite his lottery status, I never saw a second of Korolev's 168 NBA minutes. It's possible that I missed him without knowing it, I fully concede. But I sure can't remember a lick of his NBA career. And it is a career, because even at age 21, he ain't coming back. Mike Dunleavy clearly dropped the ball with this Russian athlete, who shot 28 percent from the field in 34 NBA games.

6. Rafael Araujo, Toronto Raptors, taken eighth overall in 2004

Your humble narrator received all sorts of stick from Toronto backers for calling Hoffa a bust after his rookie year (http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/multimedia/photo_gallery/2005/06/24/gallery.nbabusts/content.1.html), as if he was ready for a bust-out season at age 25 after turning the ball over on nearly 21 percent of the possessions he used up in 2004-05. Raps fans, as they sometimes do, warmed to a dose of reality a year later when Araujo continued to stink, and Jazz fans got a taste in his third season before he was mercifully left to play overseas. And Rob Babcock? Don't draft players who are two months away from their 24th birthday, unless they're averaging 30 and 20 in the NCAAs. It's not Hoffa's fault; he worked his butt off. He was just a huge reach at eighth overall.

5. Adam Morrison, Charlotte Bobcats, taken third overall in 2006

Morrison is ranked this low (high?) because he's still in the league. He still has a chance, even at age 25, to improve upon his 37 percent lifetime mark from the field. He still has a chance to learn how to rebound, defend, get to the line or pass the ball properly. The unfortunate truth is, were I to compile this list in 2012, Morrison would likely vault to the top three, as he was taken ahead of Brandon Roy, Craig Smith and Jose Juan Barea in 2006. The last two players leave you a little cold? Apologies, but they're still (much) better NBA players than Morrison.

4. Nikoloz Tskitishvili, Denver Nuggets, taken fifth overall in 2002

Dirk Nowitzki was a month away from shooting the Dallas Mavericks to their second consecutive postseason appearance, a fact (Dallas? In the playoffs?) that still tended to boggle the mind in 2002. Peja Stojakovic was a few weeks removed from, well, shooting his Sacramento Kings out of a Game 7 win over the Los Angeles Lakers. But the ideal remained. Big guy, big shooter, pretty young, gobble him up. The Nuggets got two of the three correct. Skita shot 30.4 percent in 172 career NBA games. Yikes.

3. Kwame Brown, Washington Wizards, taken first overall in 2001

Kwame's the first top pick on this list, which holds quite a bit of weight because a top selection's success or failure will rightfully be measured alongside all that come after him. Every pick. Even the free agents. Luckily for Kwame, the 2001 draft wasn't great shakes in terms of star power, though it was a deep and helpful prospect pool, so his middling NBA career can almost be left to its own merits. And his merits (seven points, 5.6 rebounds in 23 minutes a contest, career) are bloody awful.

2. Entire 2000 NBA draft

You can't pick a single bust-worthy standout. Sure, Stromile Swift (taken second overall) has disappointed greatly, but what were the Grizzlies' options? Darius Miles? Marcus Fizer? Chris Mihm? DerMarr Johnson? Do you want me to go on? Or do you want me to just mention Jerome Moiso's name and move on with it? It nearly bears mentioning that any time I see a comment wondering how it was, exactly, that a dope like me got this job, I think back to this draft. And I think, "I live-blogged the 2000 NBA draft. I've paid my dues, dammit."

1. Darko Milicic, Detroit Pistons, taken second overall in 2003

He's the total package. His name eases right into the lame jokes ("you could get yourself another Dar-ko Milicic; you know what I mean? This guy knows what I'm talking about!"), he's been an underachieving flameout, he only rose to prominence by taking advantage of well-sourced but not entirely basketball-savvy (at least, then) hoops scribes who were smitten by his ability to spin and dunk in an empty gym, and he was taken ahead of franchise types like Dwyane Wade, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Bosh. Darko is, quite easily, the biggest lottery bust of the decade.

Questions? Comments? Furious and righteous anger and a world, not to mention top 10 list, gone wrong? Swing by later today at about 3 p.m. Eastern for a BDL mini-chat regarding this very list.

IronMexican
08-25-2009, 02:22 PM
Yi was almost an all-star last year.

hater
08-25-2009, 02:32 PM
Darko > Kwame

Muser
08-25-2009, 02:36 PM
Darko > Kwame


Wade/Melo/Bosh > rest of 2001 draft class.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 02:48 PM
I don't know, I would rather have Kwame over Darko.

Goran Dragic
08-25-2009, 02:55 PM
Darko > Kwame


The same person who said Turkoglu > Dwight Howard.

resistanze
08-25-2009, 03:02 PM
Yi was expected to be a superstar?...

LMAO @ Jerome Moiso.

hater
08-25-2009, 03:26 PM
The same person who said Turkoglu > Dwight Howard.

link?

ambchang
08-25-2009, 03:26 PM
Others that has to be considered:

Eddy Curry - doesn't have a big fat heart to go along with his big fat ass.

Dajuan Wagner - injuries finished him, but wasn't exactly burning up the league before that.

Luke Jackson - this guy really really suck, I would probably put him in the top 5 to 8. But maybe drafted too low to be considered a bust.

Marvin Wililams - while not horrible, he was drafted right before Deron Williams and CP3. Bogut could potentially be lumped in the same group, but Bogut >> Williams.

Fran Vasquez - more about him not willing to come to the NBA than him not having the skills, even though reports have it that he doesn't have much skill either.

Andrea Bargnani - Still a servicable player, but #1 overall? Ahead of Roy, Aldridge and Gay? BTW, in the same draft, Saer Sene, Patrick O'Bryant, and Cedric Simmons all manage to have a worse career (so far) than J.J. Redick.

I still hope Oden makes it, but it appears more and more likely that he is the next Bowie instead of the next Robinson, which is a shame. In the same draft, Corey Brewer, Acie Law and Brandan Wright seems to suck more than Yi at this point.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 03:52 PM
Number one pick should have been Roy for sure in 2006. But other than that Bargnani is right there with everyone else at the top of his draft class.

TD 21
08-25-2009, 04:24 PM
No, he's not. Aldridge and Gay have been, are, and most likely will be clearly better players than Bargnani in the future. Teams were worried about Roy's knees going into the '06 draft, which is why he, like Granger, Blair, etc. went significantly lower than his talent indicated he should have.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 04:43 PM
No, he's not. Aldridge and Gay have been, are, and most likely will be clearly better players than Bargnani in the future. Teams were worried about Roy's knees going into the '06 draft, which is why he, like Granger, Blair, etc. went significantly lower than his talent indicated he should have.

False. Bargnani finished miles ahead of Aldridge and Gay in rookie of the year voting in 2006-2007.

He had one bad year, which was a step back, but had a very good year this year. I fail to see how anyone can say Gay and Aldridge will be "clearly" better players than Bargnani, when he has the best all around offense out of all of those players along with size.

Bargnani's numbers compare favorably with Gay and Aldridge and neither play with a guy like Bosh who is an offensive player at the same position essentially.

When you adjust for minutes played (use per 40):

Bargnani: 19.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.24 BLK PG (not adjusted) & true shooting percentage of 55.9%, PER 14.66

Gay: 20.3 points, 5.9 rebounds, .75 BLK PG (not adjusted) PG & true shooting percentage of 52.8%, PER 15.38

Aldridge: 19.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, .95 BLK PG (not adjusted) & true shooting percentage of 52.9%, PER 19.13

He is not far off from those guys at all and the only reason he is viewed that way was because of the drastic step back from his very good rookie campaign. There are legitimate questions about his heart and parts of his game, but he has a ton of talent offensively and the athleticism to do work on the defensive end and on the glass. Will he? Not sure. That is the question that remains.

But I would not be surprised to see him go over the 20 ppg mark soon. Depends on how many shots Hedo takes and how the team meshes.

Girasuck
08-25-2009, 05:05 PM
Sorry, but any draft pick over #10 shouldn't be considered a bust. After the first few picks it's really a crap shoot.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 05:23 PM
Ya, that is true, unless it is a really deep draft. Drafting is really tough and I would not want to do it.











Yes I would.

TD 21
08-25-2009, 05:40 PM
Rookie of the year is nothing more than an award voted on arbitrarily. Guess what, J. O'Neal once finished 3rd in MVP voting behind Garnett and Duncan in '03-04, does that make him the caliber of player that those two are?

One bad year in a three year career? He had a terrible first half last year and finished strong in terms of scoring, but that was mainly due to playing on a Raptors team that had arguably the worst group of wings in the league, and a hobbled Calderon. Outside of Bosh, he wasn't competing with one other single credible scorer for touches, and was playing heavy minutes.

While they don't play the same position/type of game as Gay and Aldridge, Mayo and Roy are both legit scorers on the perimeter.

Bargnani is one of the worst rebounding big men in the entire league, is a sub par defender and is not a high percentage shooter from the field (other than shooting the three). He also has the worst PER of the three.

He is skilled and athletic for a big man, but I doubt he becomes a 20 ppg scorer. 17-18 is doable, but he's so deficient in so many other areas that he'll probably never be a top 3 player on a championship caliber team, whereas Gay and Aldridge have the potential to be. Essentially, he's a more athletic Okur.

It wasn't a "very good rookie campaign", take it from a guy who watched the vast majority of his games. It was a respectable rookie campaign, followed by a year and a half of terrible play.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 06:08 PM
Rookie of the year is nothing more than an award voted on arbitrarily. Guess what, J. O'Neal once finished 3rd in MVP voting behind Garnett and Duncan in '03-04, does that make him the caliber of player that those two are?

Yes, at one point in time J. O'Neal was a spectacular player. Rookie of the year and other awards are not arbitrary voting. All-Star game is arbitrary, other awards not so much.

Are you saying he was not the second best rookie that year? What more do you want from the number 1 pick in his first year?


One bad year in a three year career? He had a terrible first half last year and finished strong in terms of scoring, but that was mainly due to playing on a Raptors team that had arguably the worst group of wings in the league, and a hobbled Calderon. Outside of Bosh, he wasn't competing with one other single credible scorer for touches, and was playing heavy minutes.

Extremely false. Here are his numbers split up by month:

October: 25 MPG, 57% FG, 50% 3PT, 100% FT, 9.5 PTS, 5 REB, 2.5 BLKS, 1 AST.

That is a very excellent month. He shot over 57% from the field and over 50 from 3 while blocking 2.5 shots per game. That is efficient. Given, it was only 2 games in that month.

November: 29 MPG, 45% FG, 43% 3PT, 90% FT, 12.4 PTS, 5.3 REB, 1.6 BLKS, 1.1 AST.

Another solid month. Solid shooting across the board and double digit points along with a nice amount of blocks.

December: 25MPG, 35% FG, 27% 3PT, 84% FT, 8.6 PTS, 3.4 REB, 1.1 BLKS, .7 AST.

This was his only poor month. Just really bad overall.

January: 36 MPG, 49% FG, 48% 3PT, 80% FT, 20 PTS, 6 REB, .6 BLKS, 1.3 AST.

Very nice way to bounce back after a poor month. 20 PPG in 36 MPG. Sick shooting across the board.

February: 37 MPG, 41% FG, 31% 3PT, 81% FT, 18 PPG, 8 REB, 1.1 BLK, 1.5 AST.

Another solid month with 18 PTS and 8 REB + 1 BLK.

March: 33 MPG, 52% FG, 52% 3PT, 87% FT, 20 PPG, 6 REB, 1.3 BLK, 1.5 AST.

Another 20 PPG month with disgustingly good shooting in only 33 MPG.

April: 34 MPG, 44% FG, 32% 3PT, 78% FT, 16.3 PPG, 3.8 REB, 2.5 BLK, 1.5 AST.

Not a great month with rebounding, but the 2.5 BLKS per game and the solid assist numbers make up for that.

So besides December, where is this "terrible first half" you describe?


While they don't play the same position/type of game as Gay and Aldridge, Mayo and Roy are both legit scorers on the perimeter.

All teams have more than one scorer, it makes it harder when they are in the same position. Like Bosh.


Bargnani is one of the worst rebounding big men in the entire league, is a sub par defender and is not a high percentage shooter from the field (other than shooting the three). He also has the worst PER of the three.

Yes, his rebounding is a definite problem and that will need to be corrected if he wants to become excellent. He can still be very good without it, but with it, he can be excellent.

He is a good low block defender, but his PnR defense needs work. He has the physical tools to do this, but the head? Not sure. He also has a better true shooting percentage than anyone of the others. That is a better indicator of offense imo.

His PER is not that far off, quit acting like it is some crappy PER.


He is skilled and athletic for a big man, but I doubt he becomes a 20 ppg scorer. 17-18 is doable, but he's so deficient in so many other areas that he'll probably never be a top 3 player on a championship caliber team, whereas Gay and Aldridge have the potential to be. Essentially, he's a more athletic Okur.

It wasn't a "very good rookie campaign", take it from a guy who watched the vast majority of his games. It was a respectable rookie campaign, followed by a year and a half of terrible play.

He scores close to 20 PPG when given over 33-35 MPG usually. If that increases and he just has the same production, he can easily top 20 PPG. All of the numbers indicate this (Per 40, Per 48....). 3 out of the 6 months last year, he was right at 20 PPG.

You say he is deficient in other areas, but I really only see rebounding. He blocks more than the other guys, his assist are right with the other guys. His defense needs work, especially the PnR, but down low he is solid.

He had a very good campaign his rookie year, especially compared to the other rookies in his class. He also had a very good playoff showing which goes a long way.

He did not have a year and half of terrible play, but his second year was terrible and a major step backwards.

He had a very promising year this previous one.

TD 21
08-25-2009, 06:30 PM
He was, but the point is he was never in the class of either Duncan or Garnett. The point I'm making is that awards are not a credible source of information when comparing players, particularly when he didn't win it and it's just a single award anyway. We're not talking about a guy like Duncan ,with an extensive resume.

I didn't say he wasn't, but he was clearly surpassed by both Gay and Aldridge in year two. He closed the gap in year three, but they were both still better, and both appear to have higher upside.

I noticed you focused heavily on scoring/shooting percentages, but not on the lack of rebounding, slightly sub par shot blocking, and sub par defense (which is not charted). October was 2 games, which is not a large enough sample size to give credence to your argument. November and December he struggled mightily. After that, as I said he began to pick it up, partially due to his own development, but also due to the lack of talent and firepower on the team outside of Bosh. Someone has to pile up numbers, which is why guys like R. Davis, Richardson, and Maggette have all been top 15 scorers in the league at certain points in their careers. Often times scoring average is in direct relation to the caliber of team a player plays on.

The Raptors had two scorers down the stretch of last season. Calderon was hobbled, Marion, despite his reputation, is not a pure scorer and barely averaged 12 ppg, and the rest of the team was beyond awful.

I disagree about his ultimate upside. To me, he looks like a skilled, talented big man who possesses very few of the qualities you see in top players on winning teams. So what if he throws in 18 ppg eventually, can he lead, dominate a game without scoring, play tough in the paint, etc.?

I said his PER was the worst of the three, and it is, so what exactly are you arguing here?

Forget about indicators. As long as Bosh is around he'll be the first option down low, and with the additions of Turkoglu, Jack, plus Calderon being healthy and DeRozan's eventual development, the Raptors are poised to have more scoring depth than they've had the past few seasons, which means even if he's capable, he probably will not be scoring 20 ppg.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 06:46 PM
Sub par blocking? He blocks more than Aldridge in less MPG. I did chart every single stat pretty much. I also said numerous times that his lack of rebounding is a problem and that if he wants to take the next leap, he has to improve there.

November: 29 MPG, 45% FG, 43% 3PT, 90% FT, 12.4 PTS, 5.3 REB, 1.6 BLKS, 1.1 AST.

He averaged 1.6 BLKS in November and shot well across the board. That is not struggling mightily.

The reason I focus on offense is because that is what he is. I am not saying he has the upside of Duncan or KG. He has the tools to be a legit scorer in this league. If he can pull together the other parts of his game (his spurts of very good shot blocking and his good low post defense is a start) then he can be a very good option on good teams.

He is not a traditional number 1 pick, but outside of Roy, no one in the draft was. When you draft in the top 5, all you can hope for is that you get a top 5 player. If Bargnani builds on his success last season, he will be that. Will he? I have some doubts, but I like his skillset and think he can do it.

Dirk was the same way. He is more potential Dirk than Duncan, but I do not think he can be quite as good as Dirk. But I think he can approach that type of player, without being nearly as dominant as Dirk.

Ghazi
08-25-2009, 06:49 PM
Interestingly enough Darko has more rings than Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Melo combined.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 06:51 PM
Ya, but it was obvious that those players were going to be excellent and they took huge risk.

Some other drafts you get guys coming out of no where, but Bosh, Wade and Melo were locks to be solid pros.

Also, Darko is reaching the point of not serviceable compared to guys not even on the level of the average NBA player. Every once and a while you get a glimpse from Darko, but it is so few and far between. Plus, he seems a little off mentally.

TD 21
08-25-2009, 06:58 PM
I said "slightly sub par shot blocking". He's slightly bigger than Aldridge, and combined with his ample athleticism and quickness, he should be blocking more shots than he does. You charted offensive stats. I realize there is no statistical measurement for solid defense, but this guy is a sub par defender.

I agree, no argument here.

I don't necessarily disagree with this, but Gay and Aldridge are better players currently, and there's a good chance both will be in the future. Particularly in Gay's case (positional need, freak athlete, perimeter shot creator, etc.) I'm not sure how you could make the case that he wouldn't have been a better pick for that team.

The reality is an Italian GM in a multicultural city with a large Italian population felt he couldn't pass up an Italian prospect, particularly when you consider the Raptors presumed troubles selling impact American players on playing in Canada, and the fact that there was no consensus number one pick entering the draft.

DPG21920
08-25-2009, 07:12 PM
Gay could have been a better pick for sure, but I don't think Bargs was a bad pick as of yet. Still too early and the only thing I disagree with people on is that he cannot be better than Gay, Aldridge or anyone else besides Roy from his draft class.

He still has that upside imo and if he finishes in the top 5 of his draft class, he was a good pick.

TD 21
08-25-2009, 07:24 PM
I completely disagree with "if he finishes in the top 5 in his draft class, he was a good pick" logic. Consensus number one pick or not, when you get picked number one, just finishing in the top 5 in your draft class is not good enough. He should at minimum be the clear cut 2nd or 3rd best player from this class (since at this point it appears Roy will be the runaway best player) and the chances of him becoming a clear cut better player than Gay and Aldridge are not good, considering he's not as good as them now. I don't disagree with the notion of him reaching their level being out of the question, but I don't see him clearly surpassing them either.

resistanze
08-25-2009, 07:27 PM
Interestingly enough Darko has more rings than Lebron/Wade/Bosh/Melo combined.

:lol

WildcardManu
08-25-2009, 08:08 PM
Interestingly enough Darko has more rings than Lebron/Dirk/Bosh/Melo combined.

Fixed.

Culburn369
08-25-2009, 10:52 PM
I just think that had Darko been put in a better situation where he played 25 to 30 minutes per game over his rookie season on a team with the second round pick level of play he could have been pretty good. I mean that Pistons team was good without Darko, had Darko been that new face of the franchise, or that second option, he might have done very good.

Yeah, buts it's no good if you can't make the culprits (Brown & Dumars) eat the shit sandwich.

Dex
08-26-2009, 11:30 AM
What was Detroit thinking? I guess they can't complain with how 2004 ended up but damn...to let the likes of Wade, Anthony, and Bosh get away...

1ytCEuuW2_A

ambchang
08-26-2009, 12:06 PM
Back then, the reason for not drafting Anthony was because they already had a young SF in Prince, and that Anthony and his ball dominant ways does not fit into their system.

Wade was being overlooked back then, and wasn't expected to make as big a splash as he did, and Bosh was viewed as a no-defense tweener.

Darko was chosen because he was viewed as someone with ridiculous potential, and would fit into the Pistons' gameplan well with his moves in the paint area, his passing abilities, and his quickness. None of those materialized.

DPG21920
08-26-2009, 12:11 PM
Bosh, Melo and Wade were not questioned enough to justify the pick imo. There are always doubts, but it would usually be reflected in a drop in draft rank and those players went 3,4,5.

exstatic
08-26-2009, 09:54 PM
Kwame Brown is probably the biggest NBA draft bust ever.

Mel_13
08-26-2009, 10:02 PM
From Bill Simmons' 2003 draft blog:

Both of us agree that the Pistons will rue the day they passed on Carmelo Anthony. What's the difference between Darko at age 18 and Raef LaFrentz at age 18? Anything? Aren't they the same guy? And you're passing on the guy who just posted the best college season in 15 years? Really?

http://proxy.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/030627