Summer Forecast: Best Newcomer

[duncan228]

Summer Forecast: Best newcomer (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-BestNewcomer)
ESPN.com

There has been much player movement this offseason, with big names changing teams and conference pecking orders. So, on the second day of our Summer Forecast series, we ask 53 of ESPN's best basketball minds: Who will be the best newcomer this season?

Here's the voting breakdown:

2009-10 predictions: Best newcomer

RANK PLAYER VOTES

1
Richard Jefferson
Small forward
San Antonio Spurs
Last season
Milwaukee Bucks
19.6 ppg, 4.6 rpg
14

2
Shaquille O'Neal
Center
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season
Phoenix Suns
17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg
8

T-3
Ron Artest
Small forward
Los Angeles Lakers
Last season
Houston Rockets
17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg
6

T-3
Vince Carter
Shooting guard
Orlando Magic
Last season
New Jersey Nets
20.8 ppg, 4.7 apg
6

T-5
Shawn Marion
Small forward
Dallas Mavericks
Last season
Miami/Toronto
12.9 ppg, 8.5 rpg
3

T-5
Andre Miller
Point guard
Portland Trail Blazers
Last season
Philadelphia 76ers
16.3 ppg, 6.5 apg
3

T-5
Hedo Turkoglu
Small forward
Toronto Raptors
Last season
Orlando Magic
16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg
3

T-5
Rasheed Wallace
Power forward
Boston Celtics
Last season
Detroit Pistons
12 ppg, 7.4 rpg
3

Also receiving votes: Blake Griffin (2), Emeka Okafor (2), Trevor Ariza (1), Jamal Crawford (1), Terrence Williams (1)

The skinny

Jefferson (14 votes)
The first big move of the offseason will prove to be the best move, more than one-quarter of our voters said. RJ is the piece that will get the Spurs back into the West's elite. Jefferson's shooting numbers were down last season with the Bucks, but he shot 40 percent from beyond the arc and still knows how to score. Playing in a winning atmosphere certainly will help matters, too.

Most important, perhaps, is that RJ has been healthy for the past two years -- something the Spurs' big three has not been -- and he's still on the right side of 30. If he proves to be the perfect fit, the Spurs could push the Lakers for the Western Conference crown.

O'Neal (8 votes)
Witness this: Seven of our voters -- and Cleveland's front office -- are banking on a motivated Shaq to take the Cavs to new heights. Although some wonder whether Shaq can take a backseat to LeBron or handle Dwight Howard come playoff time, there's no question there's still some Diesel left in the tank. Adding his post presence to a team that won 66 games last season without one makes Shaq's mission -- "Win a ring for the King" -- look highly possible.

Artest (6 votes)
To gain this honor, Artest is in a tough spot. When you join the defending champs, there are plenty of opportunities for downward mobility. Ordinary things can derail any title favorite (hello, injuries), perhaps a far more likely event than Ron-Ron Twittering Kobe & Co. into a funk. But with his drive and focus to earn a first title, it could be time to paint the portrait of Artest as a champion.

Carter (6 votes)
All things considered, many of the voters here eventually could rue not hopping onto this bandwagon. Although the "Heir Jordan" references vanished long ago, the numbers indicate Carter will be an upgrade over Turkoglu. So the Magic lose some length? How about VC's many strengths, such as his still-powerful forays to the hoop? Think his solid 3-point accuracy (38.5 percent) with the woeful Nets last season will improve when he plays alongside the best big man in the game?

Marion (3 votes)
Sure, he's coming off his lowest scoring average (12.9 points per game) since his rookie season, but there are three good reasons Marion earned three votes: (1) He should enjoy life in the fast lane again, this time with Jason Kidd running the break; (2) he can still defend multiple positions; and (3) there's no way he can shoot any worse from downtown than he did last season (19 percent).

Miller (3 votes)
The Blazers wanted Turkoglu, but landing Miller might be a blessing in disguise. He gives the team a veteran presence and, more importantly, allows Brandon Roy to play off the ball. Although he can't spread the floor with his 3-point shot, he can get the ball into the hands of those who can shoot it from deep and get the team easy baskets in transition. And if it doesn't work out, Portland can let him walk in two years.

Turkoglu (3 votes)
Turkoglu provided the best offseason intrigue when he nearly signed with Portland and then, at the eleventh hour, opted for Toronto. He gives the Raptors a sense of the dramatic on the court, too: His late-game heroics were special in the '09 playoffs. Yes, $53 million is a lot for a guy who shot only 41 percent from the floor (110th in the NBA) and 35 percent from behind the arc (95th) last season, but he'll take some pressure off Chris Bosh and maybe even persuade him to stay.

Wallace (3 votes)
No doubt Wallace needed a change of scenery after five years in Detroit. Boston is probably the perfect place for him now. He'll get to start fresh with a title contender loaded with veterans. Sheed will play a smaller role than he did with the Pistons, but he still needs to get in shape and keep his emotions in check. Either way, he is a considerable upgrade over Mikki Moore.


The voters

Henry Abbott (ESPN.com TrueHoop senior writer), J.A. Adande (ESPN.com senior writer), Kevin Arnovitz (ESPN.com TrueHoop Network editor), Andrew Ayres (ESPN.com NBA editor), Jon Barry (ESPN NBA analyst), Bruce Bernstein (ESPN NBA Studio Production), Alfredo Berrios (ESPN Deportes editor), Dwayne Bray (ESPN Studio Production), Jordan Brenner (ESPN Insider editor), Lisa Brooks (ESPN Stats & Information), Maurice Brooks (ESPN.com NBA editor), Chris Broussard (ESPN The Magazine senior writer), Ric Bucher (ESPN The Magazine senior writer), Michael Bucklin (ESPN Interactive Games), Kevin Calabro (ESPN NBA broadcaster), Kevin Conlon (ESPN Stats & Information), Jay Corbin (ESPN The Magazine editor), Chad Ford (ESPN Insider senior writer), LZ Granderson (ESPN The Magazine senior writer), John Hollinger (ESPN Insider senior writer), Jade Hoye (ESPN Multimedia), Michael Jackson (ESPN Stats & Information), Scoop Jackson (ESPN Page 2 columnist), Avery Johnson (ESPN NBA analyst), Eric Karabell (ESPN.com senior writer), Rob King (ESPN.com editor in chief), Seth Landman (ESPN Fantasy basketball writer), Tim Legler (ESPN NBA analyst), Nancy Lieberman (ESPN NBA analyst), Keith Lipscomb (ESPN Fantasy basketball analyst), Patricia Lowry (ESPN Studio Production), Mike Lynch (ESPN Stats & Information), Eric Neel (ESPN.com senior writer), Pete Newmann (ESPN Stats & Information), Chris Palmer (ESPN The Magazine NBA writer), Greg Pike (ESPN NBA Studio Production), Chris Ramsay (ESPN.com NBA coordinator), Dr. Jack Ramsay (ESPN NBA analyst), Adam Reisinger (ESPNDB editor), Jalen Rose (ESPN NBA analyst), Bob Salmi (ESPN NBA analyst), Chris Sheridan (ESPN Insider senior writer), Marc Stein (ESPN.com NBA senior writer), Patrick Stiegman (ESPN.com VP/Executive editor), Otto Strong (ESPN The Magazine NBA editor), Mark Summer (ESPN NBA Studio Production), David Thorpe (ESPN Insider NBA analyst), Justin Verrier (ESPN.com NBA editor), Bill Walton (ESPN NBA analyst), Royce Webb (ESPN.com NBA editor), Josh Whitling (ESPN Fantasy basketball writer), Matt Winer (ESPN NBA anchor) and Matt Wong (ESPN.com NBA editor).

[hater]

to think McDyess is probably right behind wallace

[Muser]

Wow Artest averaged 17 points last season? He's gonna have to take a lot less shots with Kobe/Gasol in front of him.

[timtonymanurich]

RJ Is going to be worth his weight in PLATINUM to the Spurs roster this year. Or perhaps just another Larry O'Brien trophy...

[I. Hustle]

I am glad I looked before reposting this.

You got me D228. You got me.

[Muser]

Damn, 64 days to wait :(

[2Cleva]

to think McDyess is probably right behind wallace

Uhh, no.


Also receiving votes: Blake Griffin (2), Emeka Okafor (2), Trevor Ariza (1), Jamal Crawford (1), Terrence Williams (1)

[2Cleva]

Wow Artest averaged 17 points last season? He's gonna have to take a lot less shots with Kobe/Gasol in front of him.

Artest took 15 shots per last year, 5.6 from 3 in 35.5 minutes.

Ariza took 7.3 shots per, 2.3 from 3 in 24.4 minutes. Playoff time may be a better barometer, as he took 8 shots per in 31 minutes, 3.6 3s.

Bottom line - Shots will go down across the board but efficiency will go up. Artest will never see a double team again, for example. And he's on the best passing team in the league with the most fluid offense so he'll get a lot more easy looks.

I expect Artest to be a killer from 3 point land.

[howbouthemspurs]

just over two more months and its on! .. The anticipation is killing me!!

[2Cleva]

I agree RJ was the best move. LA, Orl, Cle, and Bos added big names as well but they were in the championship picture before they got them.

Spurs were circling the drain. Injuries were piling up. Eliminated in 5 by LA one year, knocked out in Round 1 by a weak Dallas team last. If they don't get impact like RJ, they were done and they knew it.

Milwaukee execs also said were glad to send RJ away because his D is fading fast and his shot selection was awful. We'll see how he improves in SA. But people should remember that when they knock Artest's shooting.

[SonOfAGun]

Hmmm, I must need to update my firefox version because I do not see Dejuan Blair on that list.

Brb

[2Cleva]

Hmmm, I must need to update my firefox version because I do not see Dejuan Blair on that list.

Brb

He's right there next to his ACLs.

:toast

[DPG21920]

He's right there next to Bynum

:toast

[2Cleva]

:clap

:lol

[Muser]

Artest took 15 shots per last year, 5.6 from 3 in 35.5 minutes.

Ariza took 7.3 shots per, 2.3 from 3 in 24.4 minutes. Playoff time may be a better barometer, as he took 8 shots per in 31 minutes, 3.6 3s.

Bottom line - Shots will go down across the board but efficiency will go up. Artest will never see a double team again, for example. And he's on the best passing team in the league with the most fluid offense so he'll get a lot more easy looks.

I expect Artest to be a killer from 3 point land.

Oh yeah I understand that, it just took me by surprise that a team with Yao and T-Mac (Granted they where both rare in action together) that he got that many shots.


Although I think Phil should use him for his Defense, if he can get him back playing like he was before then it will be a damn good pickup.

[hater]

RJ, Blair, Dyce and even Mahinmi easily make that list :tu

[hater]

He's right there next to his ACLs.

:toast

Walton, Vujachick, Morrison

:lmao

[Brazil]

Walton, Vujachick, Morrison

:lmao

Vujachick the guy who has been cut of the Slovenian NT ?

[dbestpro]

Wow Artest averaged 17 points last season? He's gonna have to take a lot less shots with Kobe/Gasol in front of him.

That's exactly what will make it so funny because he won't take less shots. I can just see Kobe now calling for the ball with 7 seconds left as Artest fires a 45 footer with two men on him. It's gonna be ripe.

:lmao

[hater]

Vujachick the guy who has been cut of the Slovenian NT ?

exactly my point. Vujachick is not even worth one of Blair's ACLs

[Flux451]

Milwaukee execs also said were glad to send RJ away because his D is fading fast and his shot selection was awful.

Did they tell you over sushi or do you have a link?

[rayray2k8]

Here are a few more that will be coming out in the next few days, that should be worth reading.

Aug. 27: Team in turmoil/biggest turnaround
(San Antonio and Dallas should be top 2.)

Sept. 2: Western Conference standings
(Lakers obviously #1, but should be interesting to see who they rank from 2-8)

Sept. 4: Western Conference champions
(Gee, I wonder who they'll pick?.. :rolleyes)

Sept. 7: NBA champions
(There are only 5 teams who realistically have a shot at winning, lets see who BSPN picks.)

[Muser]

Here are a few more that will be coming out in the next few days, that should be worth reading.

Aug. 27: Team in turmoil/biggest turnaround
(San Antonio and Dallas should be top 2.)

Sept. 2: Western Conference standings
(Lakers obviously #1, but should be interesting to see who they rank from 2-8)

Sept. 4: Western Conference champions
(Gee, I wonder who they'll pick?.. :rolleyes)

Sept. 7: NBA champions
(There are only 5 teams who realistically have a shot at winning, lets see who BSPN picks.)

Bigget turnaround - Cavs

WC standings - Cavs # 1

WC champions - Cavs

NBA Champions - Cavs

Somehow ESPN will make this fact.

[ambchang]

Artest took 15 shots per last year, 5.6 from 3 in 35.5 minutes.

Ariza took 7.3 shots per, 2.3 from 3 in 24.4 minutes. Playoff time may be a better barometer, as he took 8 shots per in 31 minutes, 3.6 3s.

Bottom line - Shots will go down across the board but efficiency will go up. Artest will never see a double team again, for example. And he's on the best passing team in the league with the most fluid offense so he'll get a lot more easy looks.

I expect Artest to be a killer from 3 point land.

Ron Artest really has never been an efficient offensive player his entire career, regardless of whether he was the #1, 2 or 3 option
He best year, shooting-wise, was his last year in Sacramento. Outside of his two years with the Kings, where he was unquestionably a main guy in their offense, he has never shot over 43% through any year, and he shoots mostly in the 40 to 42%s.

His 3 pt shooting was the best ever %-wise and volume-wise last year. While this could point to an improvement of his 3 pt shooting accuracy, most times it is because of a spike.

Artest, when the offense runs through him, holds on the ball way too long, and shoot questionable shots. However, the lakers have more than enough offensive firepower, he is there to defend, so his offense should be an afterthought, as long as he doesn't mess it up.

[rayray2k8]

Bigget turnaround - Cavs

WC standings - Cavs # 1

WC champions - Cavs

NBA Champions - Cavs

Somehow ESPN will make this fact.

That's who they want, but out of the 5 teams I was talking about, I had them as the worst team.

[Brazil]

exactly my point. Vujachick is not even worth one of Blair's ACLs

I know it's even funnier to see he can't be a 12 in Slovenia !!

[2Cleva]

Flux451 - Of course not over sushi. It was steak.

All the talk of Artest not taking less shots and one should look at what RJ has done over his career.

[duncan228]

Here are a few more that will be coming out in the next few days, that should be worth reading...

Just to complete the list, they did Rookies first.

Summer Forecast: Rookie of the Year (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-ROY&campaign=rss&source=NBAHeadlines)

2009-10 Predictions: Rookie of the Year

Blake Griffin

James Harden

Jonny Flynn

Stephen Curry

[wildbill2u]

Artest took 15 shots per last year, 5.6 from 3 in 35.5 minutes.

Ariza took 7.3 shots per, 2.3 from 3 in 24.4 minutes. Playoff time may be a better barometer, as he took 8 shots per in 31 minutes, 3.6 3s.

Bottom line - Shots will go down across the board but efficiency will go up. Artest will never see a double team again, for example. And he's on the best passing team in the league with the most fluid offense so he'll get a lot more easy looks.

I expect Artest to be a killer from 3 point land.

You can't trust Artest's 3, but he's deadly on a post up against most SFor SG. But he was the only second option Houston had last year with T-Mac doing his usual disappearance for medical reasons so his scoring was really needed. Not so hot in the playoffs though.

[2Cleva]

You can't trust Artest's 3, but he's deadly on a post up against most SFor SG. But he was the only second option Houston had last year with T-Mac doing his usual disappearance for medical reasons so his scoring was really needed. Not so hot in the playoffs though.

Artest shot 40% for 3, making 153. That after shooting 38% the year before, 35.8% the year before that.

That 3 is clearly a weapon in his arsenal now.

Disappeared in the playoffs? I think it was the burden of him trying to carry the offense plus defend Roy and Kobe. In LA, he's doing less on offense, able to focus more on d.

[dbestpro]

Artest shot 40% for 3, making 153. That after shooting 38% the year before, 35.8% the year before that.

That 3 is clearly a weapon in his arsenal now.

Disappeared in the playoffs? I think it was the burden of him trying to carry the offense plus defend Roy and Kobe. In LA, he's doing less on offense, able to focus more on d.

Okay, so now you only have two more wishes left.

[dreamsky]

RJ, Blair, Dyce and even Mahinmi easily make that list :tu



:toast:toast:toast

[WildcardManu]

I'm guessing the reason some of these players are on the worst newcomers list as well is because they're impact could go either way as to benefit or hurt their respective teams.

[Spurs Brazil]

Summer Forecast: Worst newcomerComment Email Print Share

On Tuesday, we broke down which players we think will have the biggest impact in 2009-10. Today, we ask: Who will be the worst newcomer this season?

Here's the voting breakdown:


2009-10 predictions: Worst newcomer


RANK PLAYER VOTES


1
Zach Randolph
Power forward
Memphis Grizzlies
Last season
New York/L.A. Clippers
20.8 ppg, 10.1 rpg

12


T-2
Ron Artest
Small forward
Los Angeles Lakers
Last season
Houston Rockets
17.1 ppg, 5.2 rpg

6


T-2
Rasheed Wallace
Power forward
Boston Celtics
Last season
Detroit Pistons
12 ppg, 7.4 rpg

6


T-4
Trevor Ariza
Small forward
Houston Rockets
Last season
Los Angeles Lakers
8.9 ppg, 4.3 rpg

4


T-4
Shaquille O'Neal
Center
Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season
Phoenix Suns
17.8 ppg, 8.4 rpg

4


T-6
Vince Carter
Shooting guard
Orlando Magic
Last season
New Jersey Nets
20.8 ppg, 4.7 apg

3


T-6
Hedo Turkoglu
Small forward
Toronto Raptors
Last season
Orlando Magic
16.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg

3
Also receiving votes: Tyson Chandler (2), Ben Gordon (2), Emeka Okafor (2), Charlie Villanueva (2), Allen Iverson (1), Dahntay Jones (1), Shawn Marion (1), Quentin Richardson (1), Ben Wallace (1), Paul Westphal (1)

The skinny

Randolph (12 votes)
Normally, when a 20-and-10 guy joins one of the worst teams in the league, it's a good thing. Not in this case, according to a dozen of our voters. Despite his talent, Z-Bo's questionable character would appear to be detrimental to a young Grizzlies squad. Not to mention that he is one of the biggest black holes in basketball and doesn't play defense.

To make matters worse, the Grizzlies took on the remaining two years and $33 million of his contract. Sure, he could earn the Griz a few more wins with his post play, but so could, uh, Pau Gasol (minus the headaches). Just sayin'.




Artest (6 votes)
The thinking here is easy: Why mess with a good thing? The Lakers just won the championship with Trevor Ariza at small forward. Why replace him with one of the most combustible players in the league?

Yes, Artest is an upgrade over Ariza, but his unpredictability on and off the court might become a huge distraction for the Lakers -- one that could jeopardize their chances of a title repeat.

Wallace (6 votes)
The C's need big things from Sheed to contend for a title; many of our voters don't expect him to deliver. His production has plateaued during the past three seasons, and he continues to make a negative impact with his technicals. Playing alongside KG might help Sheed stay interested, but will Wallace embrace his role off the bench for 82 games?

Ariza (4 votes)
After five seasons and three teams, Ariza finally made his mark during the Lakers' title run last season. But whether it's his career 6.9 ppg or the fact that Houston will have a 7-foot-6, 310-pound hole in the paint next season, some of our voters aren't sold on the five-year, $34 million deal the 24-year-old forward signed with the Rockets this offseason.


NBA OFFSEASON BUZZ
Who's poised for a big year? Who could be on the decline? We're taking a look at all 30 rosters. Offseason Buzz

O'Neal (4 votes)
Although eight members of our panel think Shaq could help the King win a ring, four feel Cleveland's big Shaquisition will be a big flop. He may be the most talented running mate LeBron has had, but with 1,100-plus games on his knees and without access to the Suns' miracle training staff, the Big Daddy may revert back to the injury-prone ways that haunted him in Miami.

Carter (3 votes)
Adding an eight-time All-Star to an already successful lineup should make the reigning East champs even better. There is a certain amount of risk here, though. Carter will turn 33 in January, and Orlando will owe him $33 million in salary the next two years. Plus, some say Carter brings potential chemistry issues and could have a negative effect on Orlando's vaunted defense.

Turkoglu (3 votes)
Turkoglu had some big playoff moments in 2009 -- the Kobe block, double-doubles against Cleveland and Boston and daggers in Philly. But the Raptors gave $53 million to a guy who has never made an All-Star team and probably never will. He's a good piece, but remember, elite teams such as San Antonio and Orlando let him walk. There must be a reason, no?

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=OffseasonPredictions09-WorstNewcomer