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08-31-2009, 09:21 PM
Dissecting The 2009 Offeason
By: Daniel Leroux
RealGM.com Writer
1. San Antonio
Some people initially criticized the Richard Jefferson trade because of the fact he kills their chances of getting an impact free agent in the 2010 off-season. The fact of the matter is that with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker either under contract or carrying a substantial cap hold into next July, there was no chance the Spurs could have added a guy like Chris Bosh through pure free agency in the first place.
For that reason, the Spurs did the best job improving their team in both the short term and the long term.
Jefferson should thrive without the pressure of being the #2 option, especially since he’ll be #4 much of the time. The other important impact of that trade is that it puts Roger Mason back in the role that was optimal for him in the first place; backup minutes and a difference-maker for the time that he is in.
Bringing in solid bigs like Antonio McDyess, Theo Ratliff and DeJuan Blair both reduces the strain on Duncan (one of the benefits of having the coach most willing to sacrifice regular season wins for post-season success) and also makes them a much harder team to play against considering the number of high quality rebounders at any given time.
Additionally, RC Buford and Company also added long term contributors such as Nando de Colo and Jack McClinton, both of whom can and should have a role down the line for this team.
2. Toronto
Bryan Colangelo did an excellent job working what is a very difficult situation in Toronto. While it may be unfair considering how awesome of a city Toronto is, it bears remembering that it is not the most desirable destination for a large portion of NBA players. As such, it is important to add talent whenever possible while also maximizing the available resources. In effect, the Raptors built a team that will persist even if Chris Bosh leaves for southern pastures.
In Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto has three legitimate NBA starters who will mesh together very well. While they did not get a true starting SG, the trio of DeMar DeRozan, Marco Belinelli and Antoine Wright should do incredibly well at filling the gap, and ideally DMDR will take over the reins full-time in a couple of seasons.
I also love the addition of Rasho Nesterovic, since he is a good complement to both Bosh and Bargnani and also gives Colangelo some leeway in terms of finding a big man to put next to Andrea for the long haul.
Amir Johnson gives them more depth without giving up a player who would get minutes on the current team. Add to that the fact that Toronto has a valid backup to push Calderon again in Jarrett Jack and you have the makings of a team that can stay relevant in the East.
3. New Jersey
As I discussed in the intro to this piece, I’m a firm believer in a ‘Timetable of Contention.’ Over the last few years, few teams have done a better job fitting their plans within this concept than the Nets. One of the ways that New Jersey is special is that they are the only team in the NBA with a long-term, super-young quality starter at both the point guard and center positions. While Brook Lopez had a fantastic season, he is just beginning to show his potential and Nets management has built a team that should develop along with he and Devin Harris.
Vince Carter was not a part of that vision, and the fact that they got a very good young SG in Courtney Lee and a solid backup PG for the coming season in Rafer Alston for him deserves heaps of praise.
By my calculations, the Nets have approximately $26.2 million dollars on the books for 2010 with Harris, Lopez, Lee, Yi, Terrence Williams, CDR, Sean Williams and Najera on their ledger. Unlike the Knicks, the Nets have the space for a max player, plus multiple proven quality players to put around him. Additionally, the fact that they have PG, C, and SG well-covered in the long term aligns their needs for a #1 guy with the top level 2010 Free Agents. Now all they need to do is get one of them to come to New Jersey with the promise of Brooklyn.
4. LA Clippers
As someone who lived in Los Angeles for four years this decade, it is almost impossible to believe that this management ended up having such an excellent off-season. While Blake Griffin should be a valued contributor for the Clippers for at least the next four seasons, the other amazing deal this offseason was effectively trading Zach Randolph for Sebastian Telfair, Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Dunleavy did exactly what Kevin Pritchard did when he got the #1 pick and intended to grab a big man- get Zach Randolph the hell out of the locker room. What makes this move even more impressive that the losing Z-Bo clears out the horrific big-man rotation gum up that was coming considering Blake, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman and Mr. Under the Radar DeAndre Jordan are already worthy of minutes that exceed what the PF and C positions have to offer.
Telfair should be a fascinating backup for Baron Davis and Rasual Butler is a sneaky-good addition that could help swing a couple of close games in their favor. There is always the possibility of implosion with this team, but the Clippers have the talent to stay interesting this season and beyond.
5. Boston
A few weeks ago, I would have had a problem putting Boston so high since their big man depth was so limited. But while I think they should have re-signed Powe, bringing back Big Baby Glen Davis gives them a four-man big rotation that makes them incredibly strong. Adding Marquis Daniels would be a big help if it ever gets done, since it is true that they don’t have reliable backups at PG, SG, and SF (unless you count Tony Allen, and I don’t), but this team won the NBA title with this basic squad the last time they were healthy.
6. Oklahoma City
There are two different ways of looking at what Sam Presti did this offseason: First, you have the overwhelmingly positive fit that James Harden is with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Harden’s handle is more than respectable for an NBA SG, which will be valuable while Westbrook develops into a true point. Furthermore, Presti has built the first team in eons with the philosophy that it is important to add players who both fit the desired culture of the team in the long-term and can develop into a clear role. Of course, having a cornerstone like Durant makes this easier, but he deserves a ton of credit for seeing potential in guys like Nenad Kristic, BJ Mullens and Shaun Livingston who will be very valuable if they are on the team once they procure enough assets to put them at their proper place on the depth chart.
On the other hand, it seems like this summer may have been the best time for Presti to use his team’s cap space like a bludgeon to get a major difference-maker. A guy like Emeka Okafor could have come pretty cheap talent-wise while also fitting in with the vision for the team. Plus, the city that shall not be named is a rough place to try to get free agents to come (even with the Durantula), so Presti’s timeline for using it to improve the team is getting narrower though he can and presumably will still use it.
The other issue is that a Westbrook/Harden/Durant combination is somewhat conventional and might not be the “home run” that the team needs to be a championship contender down the line. That said, Presti did an excellent job this summer sticking to his guns and Thunder fans will be rewarded with an incredibly fun team to watch.
7. Atlanta
Totally did not see this off-season coming on draft day. At first, it looked like they brought Crawford and Teague in to fill the void of a leaving Mike Bibby, but his return makes the Atlanta backcourt very, very deep. Ironically, Marvin Williams was this year’s Josh Smith, getting little interest because of his RFA status, with the Hawks now having slightly below-market value on both. Their recent addition of Joe Smith coupled with the retention of Zaza Pachulia should be big too- this team finally has some big man depth, which will make them both a more steady regular season team and a much harder out in the playoffs. Some will focus on how their division rival Washington improved their talent, but I see the Hawks’ improvements as fitting better with their current talent and making a team with a more clear rotation and identity.
8. Utah
For a team that was really put into a bind this summer, the Jazz did very well. First off, they retained their free agent talent (Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap) at a pretty reasonable cost, even though Carlos Boozer surprisingly opted in.
Utah did extremely well to get Eric Maynor in the draft, who is an almost pitch perfect backup for Deron Williams. Maynor will be a guy who can do incredibly well in limited minutes and eventually be more than capable of handling the team in a larger role when Deron is hurt or tired.
It is more than fair to argue that the Jazz still do not have a #1 offensive option, particularly for the future, but they did not have much flexibility and also have the Knicks’ unprotected 1st round pick for 2010, which could yield major dividends. It is difficult to knock management for retaining a team that should be in playoff contention for the next five seasons.
9. New Orleans
Another team that surprised by having a quality off-season. The Tyson Chandler for Okafor trade seems a little awkward at first, since Chandler was such a good fit for Chris Paul’s game. However, the difference in injury history and the fact that Chandler was a disaster last season should make the Hornets better in terms of bigs this year.
New Orleans also added a solid backup PG in Darren Collison. Darren might not have the best court vision or passing skills, but his efficiency is off the charts- he led the Pac-10 in both three point shooting percentage and free throw percentage during his collegiate career.
Furthermore, the additions of Ike Diogu and Marcus Thornton should help the depth of the team in case of injury, something the Hornets have sorely needed recently (and could use more of).
10. Houston
Making the best of a bad situation 101. Taught by: Morey, Darryl. Sure it hurts that Yao is out for next season, likely marking a disappointing end to the Yao/T-Mac experiment, but essentially trading Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza makes a ton of sense for this team, especially now. Ariza gets to learn from Shane Battier and should eventually take over his role as lock-down defender and supporting scorer.
What’s more, Houston still has a shot at getting a high-level player in 2010 with only around $39m on the books, some of which could be moved if necessary.
Getting the rights to David Andersen could end up paying major dividends too- Also, taking fliers on high value 2nd round picks like Jermaine Taylor and Chase Budinger could help keep Houston flexible in terms of salary and talent. What keeps the Rockets down a little bit is Von Wafer signing in Europe since he could have evolved into a valued contributor off the bench with the other guys they have on roster.
11. Milwaukee
Another team that has taken some heat from some writers this summer, likely because the most notable changes from last year’s team are subtractions rather than additions. Sometimes, subtractions are what a team needs to move forward. Charlie Villanueva was not a good fit next to Andrew Bogut, and while the team did not completely replace him, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Hakim Warrick should do a pretty good job of providing athleticism and energy to a lineup that sorely needs it.
Brandon Jennings is a little bit of a risk, but he is one of the most athletically gifted PG prospects in the last decade and falling past the Knicks may light a fire under him much like it did for fellow #10 picks Paul Pierce and Caron Butler.
I also really liked the move getting Amir Johnson on the cheap, and trading him to Toronto for Carlos Delfino (a great fit) and Roko Ukic should work out well too after getting Hakim Warrick to fill Amir’s role. From here, it all depends on Ramon Sessions.
12. Denver
Like their division rival Utah, Denver had to do more with less. With their backs against the wall salary-wise, the Nuggets really did not have the ability to keep Dahntay Jones at the price the Pacers paid for him, but Arron Afflalo could do a surprisingly good job at filling the niche. Plus, it puts the impetus on JR Smith to grow up on the court and start pulling his own on both sides of the ball. Re-signing the Birdman was obviously a priority and the team paid a very reasonable price to keep him around for a while.
Losing Linas Klieza will hurt, but the addition of Ty Lawson gives the team a prototypical PG to both back up Chauncey Billups and learn the tricks of the trade from Mr. Big Shot to eventually take over the role. Lawson is a guy who went into the draft as someone who could benefit a great deal from the right circumstance, and Denver is perfect for both sides. When a team does as well as Denver last year, little improvements like those and retention of core talent makes for a successful off-season.
13. Portland
The Blazers experienced a mix of missed opportunities and dodged bullets. More than anything else, this summer was the chance for Portland to take advantage of having cap space in a year that both had very few buyers and very desperate sellers. They offered Hedo far too much money for what his role was on the team and Millsap would have been superfluous with Oden/Aldridge. They also did a good job getting value in the 2nd round- I’m a fan of Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, and Patrick Mills, even if taking Claver in the 1st over DeJuan Blair was borderline insanity.
The missed opportunity for Portland is that they are the only team in the NBA that has more talent than minutes to give them at nearly every single position. It is true that this is an excellent problem to have in an NBA that has injuries and fatigue, but Portland could have used a combination of assets and cap space to really cash in and get a true final piece to their future dynasty puzzle.
Unlike the Thunder, Portland’s window for adding talent is narrowing as a side-effect of their own success: that’s what happens when top guys like Brandon Roy need their max extensions (and thankfully get them before the season starts). They still have the best young talent in the NBA and Andre Miller should help their big men soar offensively, but I look at the team and dream of what more Pritch could have done.
14. Golden State
In a way, judging the Warriors’ offseason is a challenge of perspective. It was sheer chance that allowed Stephen Curry to slide down to the team, and he should be a very compelling piece to the puzzle. However, it’s worth mentioning that he is an incredibly flawed potential backcourt mate for Monta Ellis because of their size and defensive (in)abilities. That said, talent is talent and Kid Curry was the best guy on the board by a longshot.
From there, Nellie and Associates did well to unload Jamal Crawford’s contract and minutes even if all they got was the expiring Speedy Claxton and a flier on Acie Law IV. What makes the move a little more baffling is the fact that the team does not really have any cap space to work with, though it saves ownership money regardless, hopefully because they are looking to sell to another bidder (Larry Ellison?! Please?!).
The move that really galls me here is the trade of Marco Belinelli for Devean George. What makes it so incoherent is that Marco could have easily been an expiring contract if management chose not to pick up his option. Either way, he is better, younger, and a more valued piece than Mr. George.
Overall, the addition of Curry and a simplification of the minutes should help dramatically in the long term, though there definitely is a mixed bag.
15. Philadelphia
The Sixers are another team that spent this off-season as a victim of circumstance. One of the penalties of overspending last summer was that the Sixers are already over the 2010 cap, which made retaining Andre Miller effectively impossible. Luckily, they got a nasty steal in Jrue Holiday, who will be a long time NBA starter at one of the guard positions. Beyond that, they got Primoz Brezec (who I like), and the change to Eddie Jordan as coach should be fantastic for a team sorely in need of what he brings to the table. If their core can stay out of the infirmary, the Sixers have the talent to make a mess of things in the second tier of the Eastern Conference and would be an incredibly hard out in the playoffs.
16. Minnesota
David Kahn certainly turned over the roster fast- amazing to think that the only player on this roster to play with Kevin Garnett is Mark Blount and he’s detoured in Miami. Discussion of Minnesota’s summer starts and ends with the decision to draft Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. While I like both of them (Rubio much more than Flynn as a starting NBA PG), neither one of them is an off-guard in any sense of the word. Of course, it is possible that one of them is moved before we see a Calderon/Ford situation, especially if Rubio is in Spain for a little while, but it seems more than bizarre to make the conscious decision to do that, particularly since it appeared that at least Rubio had no idea what was going on.
Other than that, Minnesota made a gutsy call to effectively send Craig Smith, Bassy Telfair, and the MAD DOG for a bit of future cap relief, and it’s a move I don’t particularly like because I see Telfair’s contract as being a decent value unless that $2.5m in 2010 has a more clear-cut purpose than is apparent right now.
Wayne Ellington should fit in fine for a team whose swingman rotation is in constant flux at the present, and we’ll see if OPEC and Ryan Hollins get chances to make an impact. In the end, it all comes down to the Rubio/Flynn decision, and I’m willing to let time be the judge of that one, at least for the time being.
17. Miami
A hard team to get a grip on, since so much of what they could have done is incredibly speculative. It’s impossible to blame them for not getting Lamar Odom considering their maximum offer was so much less than he ended up getting. The biggest thing to remember for Miami is that they are a 2010 team that could be a force to be reckoned with in terms of high-level FA’s because of the combination of a good team, superstar (if Wade stays), and incredibly desirable place to live. They may not have added a lot, but they get praise for not touching their 2010 cap space. Also, one smart point of not adding Boozer now is that he would have had a cap hold on for next year, so management would have had to decide whether to renounce him and go after other free agents, a choice they do not have to make now.
18. LA Lakers
The reigning champs are easily the hardest team to place. I see the change from Ariza to Artest having a gigantic potential downside for the Lakers, because I am not remotely sold on Ron being able to be a peripheral offensive player like Ariza was so willing to be. Plus, Ariza was a guy who didn’t need to get shots to heat up or be happy, something Artest has never been particularly good at.
The Lakers did well, however, retaining Odom and Shannon Brown. It’s hard to begrudge the champions for ending the off-season as the favorite for the title (though it’s a close call), but they are weaker in both the short-term and the long-term than they would have been if they had just strictly retained the title team.
19. Charlotte
A strange offseason for Michael Jordan and Larry Brown. I like Gerald Henderson fine, but he seems like an incredibly awkward fit next to Gerald Wallace since neither one is a #1 scoring option or particularly adept at spreading the floor. Trading Okafor for Chandler is also bizarre because moving Tyson away from the best PG in the NBA should hurt his value somewhat, and having him on a team that will need more of him on offense than that will prove very problematic. I like the addition of Derrick Martin, but it is hard to see how this team makes any noise in an East where a vast majority of the teams from 4-12 got better.
20. Chicago
A plan, a plan, my kingdom for a plan. The Bulls are in a unique situation because all of the pieces they have signed beyond 2010 are inherently movable, but they decided to keep them all, likely forgoing any impact they could have had in free agency next season. It was smart of them to not overpay Ben Gordon (especially next to Derrick Rose), but keeping Kirk Hinrich while adding Jannero Pargo (who I like) seems baffling, as does drafting James Johnson and Taj Gibson while still holding on to Tyrus Thomas and Luol Deng. Chicago still has the pieces to make a good team either now or in the future, but the longer they wait the more likely it is that they just stay a lower-tier playoff team the whole time.
21. New York
Moreso than anything else, the Knicks’ offseason was about circumstance and other goals. I cannot penalize them for not dumping Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries’ contracts, since it will be very difficult, even with Cuttino Mobley’s insured contract.
However, Walsh does deserve criticism for taking Jordan Hill once Stephen Curry was off the board. Hill is the definition of a banal player- nice kid, works hard, very limited, a fine guy to have on a team, but not a guy who you take in the Top-10. As already noted, it seems hard to believe that Curry or Jeffries could have yielded an offer, but moving one of them with #8 may have been a possibility.
The Knicks were also hurt by the potential cap drop for 2010, but smart management could make them major players in 2011, if they strike out in 2010 (and I don’t think they will in 2010, unless Amare counts as “striking out”…)
22. Sacramento
The Kings had a chance to set up their future this summer. With only three relatively locked in key pieces of that vision (Kevin Martin, Hawes, and Jason Thompson), they had a ton of freedom to add some pieces around that frame. While I like both Omri Casspi and Jon Brockman as guys who fit into that future Kings team, the decision to draft Tyreke Evans as Martin’s backcourt mate will loom large for this franchise. Evans is a talented kid, but he should not be the guy running an offense from day one. Martin is an excellent player and he necessitates a proper complement from the point guard position, and Sacramento effectively ignored that, taking the player they presumably saw as the best available and missed the giant “fit” red flags. Evans can do some amazing things on the court, but his passing ability and unselfishness are not at the level of a guy who needs to shoulder that load, which proves especially jarring considering a near perfect fit was on the board staring them in the face.
23. Washington
In my time observing the NBA, there have been a few trades that have stuck in my craw over the years. Washington’s decision to trade the #5 pick to Minnesota a few days before the draft will almost assuredly join that inauspicious group. The first baffling part about the move is that Mike Miller and Randy Foye effectively lock in the Wizards’ non-big man personnel on the court, and there is one lingering flaw: DEFENSE. A perimeter core of Arenas, Tuff Juice, Miller, and Foye should score a lot of points, but it is awfully hard to see what they will do to stop any high-level team in their conference, particularly in the playoffs. Assuming they keep Foye further than this year, that core will take minutes away from guys who could make this team more well-rounded and dangerous. That decision is made even more awkward by the fact that Ricky Rubio, who would have been excellent for this team, ended up being available at #5, but of course Washington had already dumped the pick. The Wiz do have a solid amount of talent, but their fit together is flawed and they have the perfect coach to lead them to 2 or 3 years of 1st round playoff losses.
24. Phoenix
Another mind boggling summer in the Valley of the Sun. While Phoenix didn’t sell any draft picks this year, they managed to make an incredibly strange team. While everyone and their mother knows that it’s good for Amare to have a big next to him who can defend, Phoenix will be going with a murderer’s row of Channing Frye, Earl Clark (a good player, just not as a PF next to Amare), and Robin Lopez. Add to that the fact that the Suns have moved most of the guys who drilled perimeter shots on the “7 Seconds or Less” teams for guys with different games and you see why it is difficult to see the Suns as threats to make any noise in a loaded West. It was nice of Nash to sign an extension, but I don’t think any hardcore NBA fan wants to see him spend his last few years fighting for the 8-seed.
25. Dallas
Mark Cuban had a choice of whether he wanted to build for the long term or short term this summer. Shockingly, as the only player personnel guy with literally infinite job security, he decided to shoot short-term despite staring at the superior Lakers and Spurs. They responded to Orlando matching Marcin Gortat by making a mediocre PF army in Tim Thomas, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries while letting C Ryan Hollins go. I know they want to run, but having Dampier and Dirk as the only two guys on roster who can play C is a terrible strategy.
What makes the Mavs’ choices all the stranger is that they went purely for the future in the draft: Rodrique Beaubois and Nick Calathes were both very good picks, but neither will contribute while Marion and Kidd are still productive.
Regardless, the Mavs are a key team to watch as 2010 shakes out, because Erick Dampier’s non-guaranteed final year allows him to be traded after next season for an immediate salary cap dump if so desired, which could come in incredibly handy for the right team. The signing of Shawn Marion is also somewhat baffling, since he and Josh Howard overlap pretty strongly and both have a history of whining when unhappy. The real question is whether making a stronger team this year was worth weakening the future. To me, that answer is clear considering it would be an upset for this Mavs team to make the conference finals.
26. Cleveland
Danny Ferry decides to use his expiring contracts to make his team better: Good call.
The player he gives up those assets for turning out to be Shaq: Bad call.
Trading for Shaq with Big Z on roster is more than baffling. Now, I enjoy Shaq off the court as much as anyone, but there is no reasonable way that the two he and Z can be on the court at the same time. Shaq has a use against Dwight Howard, but he came at the expense of adding a piece that could have a much larger impact on a game-to-game basis.
Plus, any combo of Shaq/Z and Varejao carries many of the same problems that sank Cleveland this past season in a seven-game series against a good team. This is still an impossibly shallow team at the swingmen spots despite having the best player in the league who can also play 40 a game.
The best thing that happened to Cleveland was Orlando becoming a more conventional team- they basically lucked into a more favorable matchup. While I believe the Cavs’ long-term talent is better than New York’s, I’m not sure that the margin is sufficient to take even them out of the running for LeBron, much less places like Miami and New Jersey that have legit pieces in place.
Also, grabbing Christian Eyenga may have seemed like one of those Spurs-like moves at the time, but what are the odds this team needs a guy like him three years from now? For Cleveland, the only time that matters is now, and they did not do a good job of maximizing their assets to make the best team possible for a title run this year.
27. Indiana
As a Warriors fan, I understand that was keeps a mediocre team mediocre is an inability to make dramatic improvements to the team. With Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy under contract until 2011, it was clear that Indiana was in a sort of holding pattern until that point in terms of free agents or cap-centric trades. Since that basic idea has been clear since 2007, it seemed reasonable to assume that Indiana would spend the next few seasons getting guys that fit within that timeline, and players like Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush worked fine since their RFA year is 2012.
However, signing a soon-to-be 29 years old Dahntay Jones for a four-year contract does not appear to fit very well within that, especially if they want to groom Rush for the SG slot. Of course, it is worth noting that overreacting on a deal with a little over $2.5m/year is a little silly, but teams like Indiana don’t have a ton of space to work with and this team will have a ton of holes to patch in their small window of leverage. Taking Tyler Hansbrough over players like Earl Clark, Ty Lawson, and Jrue Holiday seems awfully short-sighted too. I understand why it is incredibly important to have “good guys” on a team based in Indianapolis (in fact, I had a discussion on this point with a IN native a little while back), but T-Hans is a career back-up at the most expendable position for guys like that, taken in the lottery. This team has a #1 scorer (Granger), but will need to be incredibly savvy with the rest of their team-building to make a squad worthy of him, and they simply were not this off-season.
28. Orlando
Lordy, lordy. A problem that is far more common for NFL teams than NBA teams is management’s inability to recognize why their team succeeded the previous year, effectively building on top of the wrong foundation. There may have never been a more stark example of this than the 2009 Orlando Magic off-season. The Magic succeeded last season by combining the best rebounder in the NBA with four guys who could stretch the floor, forcing the other team to be incredibly uncomfortable on defense while Orlando kept their heads above water when they were on D. So what did they do? Take one of those four perimeter players and move him into the interior.
While Rashard Lewis will undoubtedly play some minutes at the PF slot, Orlando didn’t sign Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat to sit them on the bench. What makes it even more jarring is that neither Bass nor Gortat is really a big that can stretch the floor in a meaningful way, so teams like Cleveland and Boston (you know, Orlando’s competition) can defend them with their current big man rotations without issue. Furthermore, part of what made Orlando so good last season was that they had multiple options for crunch time situations in Rashard and Hedo.
Whether or not it was Otis Smith’s fault, Hedo leaving changes that dynamic. Also, the Magic went from having a dynamic swingman group with Hedo, Shard, the criminally underrated Courtney Lee, Pietrus, and some JJ Redick to a much narrow rotation thanks to Vince Carter coming in coupled with Bass/Gortat grabbing big man minutes. Orlando did become a deeper team and deserves some credit for that, but success for teams that make the Finals changes to championships instead of playoff seed, and Orlando just got a whole lot easier to take out.
29. Memphis
It’s hard to think that a team that gets great value in DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young late in the draft could be this low. I mean, for a team to do that, they would have to completely waste a really valuable draft pick on a guy who makes no sense with their current roster… Hasheem Thabeet seems like a nice guy and he brings interesting physical attributes to the table, but he simply is not a good basketball player. I drew some fire before the draft for comparing Thabeet to DeSagana Diop, but the comparison is pretty close. Thabeet may be the most raw offensive player to get minutes in the NBA in my lifetime. Of course, he can get better, but it will take a looooong time, if it even happens. Also, there is no coherent explanation for how Thabeet and Marc Gasol would play together- neither a more svelte Gasol nor Hasheem can remotely guard NBA power forwards, and the offense would be abysmal too. What makes it worse is that guys like Ricky Rubio and Tyreke Evans could have been fascinating fits with OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay, the real core of the team.
Naturally, Chris Wallace didn’t stop there- after all, Memphis was one of the only teams that actually had salary cap space to work with, so it would be smart to leverage the bejeezus out of the cash-strapped teams. So Memphis did what any team with excellent bargaining position does- traded an expiring contract for Zach Randolph. Yes, the guy who has been a full-time starter in the NBA for six seasons and has never made the playoffs in that span. Yes, the guy who had more turnovers per game than Billups and Mo Williams and less assists per game than Gerald Wallace and Dominic McGuire. Yes, the guy with the exact same contract as Pau Gasol. Now, Memphis is locked into a big man trio of Z-Bo, Hasheem Thabeet, and Marc Gasol, seemingly souring on Mike Conley, and with zero meaningful cap flexibility until 2011. Bravo.
30. Detroit
There is one thing worse than making a terrible situation worse: ruining an opportunity. As someone who defended the Iverson for Billups trade because of the potential it gave Detroit to move beyond their aging core, the decisions Joe Dumars made this summer have come as a genuine shock. It seems best to go through each of the problems with paying Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva an estimated $18 million per year: They are a horrible fit together since neither is strong at defense, it moves Rodney Stuckey firmly to PG where he had a negative net PER this past season and hasn’t shown the ability to run an offense, Gordon and Stuckey form the worst defensive backcourt in the entire league, neither back-court player is a distributor by nature, there is not much cap flexibility, and Detroit is spending $12 million on Charlie V and Jason Maxiell manning the power forward slot.
The other surprising part about it is that it obviously changes the tone and minute distribution for the team, but both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are still on roster and somewhat interesting to move considering their ages, current contracts, and the fact that Detroit is leverage-less in negotiations to move them. What kills me about the deals is that you are spending $18 million for two guys, neither of whom is a #1 scorer, lead guard, or lead big man. While they might not have gotten a max-quality guy in 2010, it sure seemed worth a shot. The other mindblowing decision of this offseason was drafting Austin Daye, Jonas Jerebko, and DeJuan Summers, all of whom play small forward. That provides enough of a problem considering each is worthy of minutes that would squeeze out the position, but it comes to a head considering Tayshaun Prince will play all of his minutes there with PF filled by Charlie V and Maxiell and Rip Hamilton should slide over with Ben Gordon at SG. Joe Dumars had a largely blank slate to build a team with some solid assets, and he turned that into a squad with no #1 scorer, no point guard, no young defenders, and no low post scorers. Now that’s an accomplishment.
By: Daniel Leroux
RealGM.com Writer
1. San Antonio
Some people initially criticized the Richard Jefferson trade because of the fact he kills their chances of getting an impact free agent in the 2010 off-season. The fact of the matter is that with Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker either under contract or carrying a substantial cap hold into next July, there was no chance the Spurs could have added a guy like Chris Bosh through pure free agency in the first place.
For that reason, the Spurs did the best job improving their team in both the short term and the long term.
Jefferson should thrive without the pressure of being the #2 option, especially since he’ll be #4 much of the time. The other important impact of that trade is that it puts Roger Mason back in the role that was optimal for him in the first place; backup minutes and a difference-maker for the time that he is in.
Bringing in solid bigs like Antonio McDyess, Theo Ratliff and DeJuan Blair both reduces the strain on Duncan (one of the benefits of having the coach most willing to sacrifice regular season wins for post-season success) and also makes them a much harder team to play against considering the number of high quality rebounders at any given time.
Additionally, RC Buford and Company also added long term contributors such as Nando de Colo and Jack McClinton, both of whom can and should have a role down the line for this team.
2. Toronto
Bryan Colangelo did an excellent job working what is a very difficult situation in Toronto. While it may be unfair considering how awesome of a city Toronto is, it bears remembering that it is not the most desirable destination for a large portion of NBA players. As such, it is important to add talent whenever possible while also maximizing the available resources. In effect, the Raptors built a team that will persist even if Chris Bosh leaves for southern pastures.
In Jose Calderon, Andrea Bargnani and Hedo Turkoglu, Toronto has three legitimate NBA starters who will mesh together very well. While they did not get a true starting SG, the trio of DeMar DeRozan, Marco Belinelli and Antoine Wright should do incredibly well at filling the gap, and ideally DMDR will take over the reins full-time in a couple of seasons.
I also love the addition of Rasho Nesterovic, since he is a good complement to both Bosh and Bargnani and also gives Colangelo some leeway in terms of finding a big man to put next to Andrea for the long haul.
Amir Johnson gives them more depth without giving up a player who would get minutes on the current team. Add to that the fact that Toronto has a valid backup to push Calderon again in Jarrett Jack and you have the makings of a team that can stay relevant in the East.
3. New Jersey
As I discussed in the intro to this piece, I’m a firm believer in a ‘Timetable of Contention.’ Over the last few years, few teams have done a better job fitting their plans within this concept than the Nets. One of the ways that New Jersey is special is that they are the only team in the NBA with a long-term, super-young quality starter at both the point guard and center positions. While Brook Lopez had a fantastic season, he is just beginning to show his potential and Nets management has built a team that should develop along with he and Devin Harris.
Vince Carter was not a part of that vision, and the fact that they got a very good young SG in Courtney Lee and a solid backup PG for the coming season in Rafer Alston for him deserves heaps of praise.
By my calculations, the Nets have approximately $26.2 million dollars on the books for 2010 with Harris, Lopez, Lee, Yi, Terrence Williams, CDR, Sean Williams and Najera on their ledger. Unlike the Knicks, the Nets have the space for a max player, plus multiple proven quality players to put around him. Additionally, the fact that they have PG, C, and SG well-covered in the long term aligns their needs for a #1 guy with the top level 2010 Free Agents. Now all they need to do is get one of them to come to New Jersey with the promise of Brooklyn.
4. LA Clippers
As someone who lived in Los Angeles for four years this decade, it is almost impossible to believe that this management ended up having such an excellent off-season. While Blake Griffin should be a valued contributor for the Clippers for at least the next four seasons, the other amazing deal this offseason was effectively trading Zach Randolph for Sebastian Telfair, Mark Madsen and Craig Smith. Dunleavy did exactly what Kevin Pritchard did when he got the #1 pick and intended to grab a big man- get Zach Randolph the hell out of the locker room. What makes this move even more impressive that the losing Z-Bo clears out the horrific big-man rotation gum up that was coming considering Blake, Marcus Camby, Chris Kaman and Mr. Under the Radar DeAndre Jordan are already worthy of minutes that exceed what the PF and C positions have to offer.
Telfair should be a fascinating backup for Baron Davis and Rasual Butler is a sneaky-good addition that could help swing a couple of close games in their favor. There is always the possibility of implosion with this team, but the Clippers have the talent to stay interesting this season and beyond.
5. Boston
A few weeks ago, I would have had a problem putting Boston so high since their big man depth was so limited. But while I think they should have re-signed Powe, bringing back Big Baby Glen Davis gives them a four-man big rotation that makes them incredibly strong. Adding Marquis Daniels would be a big help if it ever gets done, since it is true that they don’t have reliable backups at PG, SG, and SF (unless you count Tony Allen, and I don’t), but this team won the NBA title with this basic squad the last time they were healthy.
6. Oklahoma City
There are two different ways of looking at what Sam Presti did this offseason: First, you have the overwhelmingly positive fit that James Harden is with Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Harden’s handle is more than respectable for an NBA SG, which will be valuable while Westbrook develops into a true point. Furthermore, Presti has built the first team in eons with the philosophy that it is important to add players who both fit the desired culture of the team in the long-term and can develop into a clear role. Of course, having a cornerstone like Durant makes this easier, but he deserves a ton of credit for seeing potential in guys like Nenad Kristic, BJ Mullens and Shaun Livingston who will be very valuable if they are on the team once they procure enough assets to put them at their proper place on the depth chart.
On the other hand, it seems like this summer may have been the best time for Presti to use his team’s cap space like a bludgeon to get a major difference-maker. A guy like Emeka Okafor could have come pretty cheap talent-wise while also fitting in with the vision for the team. Plus, the city that shall not be named is a rough place to try to get free agents to come (even with the Durantula), so Presti’s timeline for using it to improve the team is getting narrower though he can and presumably will still use it.
The other issue is that a Westbrook/Harden/Durant combination is somewhat conventional and might not be the “home run” that the team needs to be a championship contender down the line. That said, Presti did an excellent job this summer sticking to his guns and Thunder fans will be rewarded with an incredibly fun team to watch.
7. Atlanta
Totally did not see this off-season coming on draft day. At first, it looked like they brought Crawford and Teague in to fill the void of a leaving Mike Bibby, but his return makes the Atlanta backcourt very, very deep. Ironically, Marvin Williams was this year’s Josh Smith, getting little interest because of his RFA status, with the Hawks now having slightly below-market value on both. Their recent addition of Joe Smith coupled with the retention of Zaza Pachulia should be big too- this team finally has some big man depth, which will make them both a more steady regular season team and a much harder out in the playoffs. Some will focus on how their division rival Washington improved their talent, but I see the Hawks’ improvements as fitting better with their current talent and making a team with a more clear rotation and identity.
8. Utah
For a team that was really put into a bind this summer, the Jazz did very well. First off, they retained their free agent talent (Mehmet Okur and Paul Millsap) at a pretty reasonable cost, even though Carlos Boozer surprisingly opted in.
Utah did extremely well to get Eric Maynor in the draft, who is an almost pitch perfect backup for Deron Williams. Maynor will be a guy who can do incredibly well in limited minutes and eventually be more than capable of handling the team in a larger role when Deron is hurt or tired.
It is more than fair to argue that the Jazz still do not have a #1 offensive option, particularly for the future, but they did not have much flexibility and also have the Knicks’ unprotected 1st round pick for 2010, which could yield major dividends. It is difficult to knock management for retaining a team that should be in playoff contention for the next five seasons.
9. New Orleans
Another team that surprised by having a quality off-season. The Tyson Chandler for Okafor trade seems a little awkward at first, since Chandler was such a good fit for Chris Paul’s game. However, the difference in injury history and the fact that Chandler was a disaster last season should make the Hornets better in terms of bigs this year.
New Orleans also added a solid backup PG in Darren Collison. Darren might not have the best court vision or passing skills, but his efficiency is off the charts- he led the Pac-10 in both three point shooting percentage and free throw percentage during his collegiate career.
Furthermore, the additions of Ike Diogu and Marcus Thornton should help the depth of the team in case of injury, something the Hornets have sorely needed recently (and could use more of).
10. Houston
Making the best of a bad situation 101. Taught by: Morey, Darryl. Sure it hurts that Yao is out for next season, likely marking a disappointing end to the Yao/T-Mac experiment, but essentially trading Ron Artest for Trevor Ariza makes a ton of sense for this team, especially now. Ariza gets to learn from Shane Battier and should eventually take over his role as lock-down defender and supporting scorer.
What’s more, Houston still has a shot at getting a high-level player in 2010 with only around $39m on the books, some of which could be moved if necessary.
Getting the rights to David Andersen could end up paying major dividends too- Also, taking fliers on high value 2nd round picks like Jermaine Taylor and Chase Budinger could help keep Houston flexible in terms of salary and talent. What keeps the Rockets down a little bit is Von Wafer signing in Europe since he could have evolved into a valued contributor off the bench with the other guys they have on roster.
11. Milwaukee
Another team that has taken some heat from some writers this summer, likely because the most notable changes from last year’s team are subtractions rather than additions. Sometimes, subtractions are what a team needs to move forward. Charlie Villanueva was not a good fit next to Andrew Bogut, and while the team did not completely replace him, Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Hakim Warrick should do a pretty good job of providing athleticism and energy to a lineup that sorely needs it.
Brandon Jennings is a little bit of a risk, but he is one of the most athletically gifted PG prospects in the last decade and falling past the Knicks may light a fire under him much like it did for fellow #10 picks Paul Pierce and Caron Butler.
I also really liked the move getting Amir Johnson on the cheap, and trading him to Toronto for Carlos Delfino (a great fit) and Roko Ukic should work out well too after getting Hakim Warrick to fill Amir’s role. From here, it all depends on Ramon Sessions.
12. Denver
Like their division rival Utah, Denver had to do more with less. With their backs against the wall salary-wise, the Nuggets really did not have the ability to keep Dahntay Jones at the price the Pacers paid for him, but Arron Afflalo could do a surprisingly good job at filling the niche. Plus, it puts the impetus on JR Smith to grow up on the court and start pulling his own on both sides of the ball. Re-signing the Birdman was obviously a priority and the team paid a very reasonable price to keep him around for a while.
Losing Linas Klieza will hurt, but the addition of Ty Lawson gives the team a prototypical PG to both back up Chauncey Billups and learn the tricks of the trade from Mr. Big Shot to eventually take over the role. Lawson is a guy who went into the draft as someone who could benefit a great deal from the right circumstance, and Denver is perfect for both sides. When a team does as well as Denver last year, little improvements like those and retention of core talent makes for a successful off-season.
13. Portland
The Blazers experienced a mix of missed opportunities and dodged bullets. More than anything else, this summer was the chance for Portland to take advantage of having cap space in a year that both had very few buyers and very desperate sellers. They offered Hedo far too much money for what his role was on the team and Millsap would have been superfluous with Oden/Aldridge. They also did a good job getting value in the 2nd round- I’m a fan of Jeff Pendergraph, Dante Cunningham, and Patrick Mills, even if taking Claver in the 1st over DeJuan Blair was borderline insanity.
The missed opportunity for Portland is that they are the only team in the NBA that has more talent than minutes to give them at nearly every single position. It is true that this is an excellent problem to have in an NBA that has injuries and fatigue, but Portland could have used a combination of assets and cap space to really cash in and get a true final piece to their future dynasty puzzle.
Unlike the Thunder, Portland’s window for adding talent is narrowing as a side-effect of their own success: that’s what happens when top guys like Brandon Roy need their max extensions (and thankfully get them before the season starts). They still have the best young talent in the NBA and Andre Miller should help their big men soar offensively, but I look at the team and dream of what more Pritch could have done.
14. Golden State
In a way, judging the Warriors’ offseason is a challenge of perspective. It was sheer chance that allowed Stephen Curry to slide down to the team, and he should be a very compelling piece to the puzzle. However, it’s worth mentioning that he is an incredibly flawed potential backcourt mate for Monta Ellis because of their size and defensive (in)abilities. That said, talent is talent and Kid Curry was the best guy on the board by a longshot.
From there, Nellie and Associates did well to unload Jamal Crawford’s contract and minutes even if all they got was the expiring Speedy Claxton and a flier on Acie Law IV. What makes the move a little more baffling is the fact that the team does not really have any cap space to work with, though it saves ownership money regardless, hopefully because they are looking to sell to another bidder (Larry Ellison?! Please?!).
The move that really galls me here is the trade of Marco Belinelli for Devean George. What makes it so incoherent is that Marco could have easily been an expiring contract if management chose not to pick up his option. Either way, he is better, younger, and a more valued piece than Mr. George.
Overall, the addition of Curry and a simplification of the minutes should help dramatically in the long term, though there definitely is a mixed bag.
15. Philadelphia
The Sixers are another team that spent this off-season as a victim of circumstance. One of the penalties of overspending last summer was that the Sixers are already over the 2010 cap, which made retaining Andre Miller effectively impossible. Luckily, they got a nasty steal in Jrue Holiday, who will be a long time NBA starter at one of the guard positions. Beyond that, they got Primoz Brezec (who I like), and the change to Eddie Jordan as coach should be fantastic for a team sorely in need of what he brings to the table. If their core can stay out of the infirmary, the Sixers have the talent to make a mess of things in the second tier of the Eastern Conference and would be an incredibly hard out in the playoffs.
16. Minnesota
David Kahn certainly turned over the roster fast- amazing to think that the only player on this roster to play with Kevin Garnett is Mark Blount and he’s detoured in Miami. Discussion of Minnesota’s summer starts and ends with the decision to draft Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn. While I like both of them (Rubio much more than Flynn as a starting NBA PG), neither one of them is an off-guard in any sense of the word. Of course, it is possible that one of them is moved before we see a Calderon/Ford situation, especially if Rubio is in Spain for a little while, but it seems more than bizarre to make the conscious decision to do that, particularly since it appeared that at least Rubio had no idea what was going on.
Other than that, Minnesota made a gutsy call to effectively send Craig Smith, Bassy Telfair, and the MAD DOG for a bit of future cap relief, and it’s a move I don’t particularly like because I see Telfair’s contract as being a decent value unless that $2.5m in 2010 has a more clear-cut purpose than is apparent right now.
Wayne Ellington should fit in fine for a team whose swingman rotation is in constant flux at the present, and we’ll see if OPEC and Ryan Hollins get chances to make an impact. In the end, it all comes down to the Rubio/Flynn decision, and I’m willing to let time be the judge of that one, at least for the time being.
17. Miami
A hard team to get a grip on, since so much of what they could have done is incredibly speculative. It’s impossible to blame them for not getting Lamar Odom considering their maximum offer was so much less than he ended up getting. The biggest thing to remember for Miami is that they are a 2010 team that could be a force to be reckoned with in terms of high-level FA’s because of the combination of a good team, superstar (if Wade stays), and incredibly desirable place to live. They may not have added a lot, but they get praise for not touching their 2010 cap space. Also, one smart point of not adding Boozer now is that he would have had a cap hold on for next year, so management would have had to decide whether to renounce him and go after other free agents, a choice they do not have to make now.
18. LA Lakers
The reigning champs are easily the hardest team to place. I see the change from Ariza to Artest having a gigantic potential downside for the Lakers, because I am not remotely sold on Ron being able to be a peripheral offensive player like Ariza was so willing to be. Plus, Ariza was a guy who didn’t need to get shots to heat up or be happy, something Artest has never been particularly good at.
The Lakers did well, however, retaining Odom and Shannon Brown. It’s hard to begrudge the champions for ending the off-season as the favorite for the title (though it’s a close call), but they are weaker in both the short-term and the long-term than they would have been if they had just strictly retained the title team.
19. Charlotte
A strange offseason for Michael Jordan and Larry Brown. I like Gerald Henderson fine, but he seems like an incredibly awkward fit next to Gerald Wallace since neither one is a #1 scoring option or particularly adept at spreading the floor. Trading Okafor for Chandler is also bizarre because moving Tyson away from the best PG in the NBA should hurt his value somewhat, and having him on a team that will need more of him on offense than that will prove very problematic. I like the addition of Derrick Martin, but it is hard to see how this team makes any noise in an East where a vast majority of the teams from 4-12 got better.
20. Chicago
A plan, a plan, my kingdom for a plan. The Bulls are in a unique situation because all of the pieces they have signed beyond 2010 are inherently movable, but they decided to keep them all, likely forgoing any impact they could have had in free agency next season. It was smart of them to not overpay Ben Gordon (especially next to Derrick Rose), but keeping Kirk Hinrich while adding Jannero Pargo (who I like) seems baffling, as does drafting James Johnson and Taj Gibson while still holding on to Tyrus Thomas and Luol Deng. Chicago still has the pieces to make a good team either now or in the future, but the longer they wait the more likely it is that they just stay a lower-tier playoff team the whole time.
21. New York
Moreso than anything else, the Knicks’ offseason was about circumstance and other goals. I cannot penalize them for not dumping Eddy Curry or Jared Jeffries’ contracts, since it will be very difficult, even with Cuttino Mobley’s insured contract.
However, Walsh does deserve criticism for taking Jordan Hill once Stephen Curry was off the board. Hill is the definition of a banal player- nice kid, works hard, very limited, a fine guy to have on a team, but not a guy who you take in the Top-10. As already noted, it seems hard to believe that Curry or Jeffries could have yielded an offer, but moving one of them with #8 may have been a possibility.
The Knicks were also hurt by the potential cap drop for 2010, but smart management could make them major players in 2011, if they strike out in 2010 (and I don’t think they will in 2010, unless Amare counts as “striking out”…)
22. Sacramento
The Kings had a chance to set up their future this summer. With only three relatively locked in key pieces of that vision (Kevin Martin, Hawes, and Jason Thompson), they had a ton of freedom to add some pieces around that frame. While I like both Omri Casspi and Jon Brockman as guys who fit into that future Kings team, the decision to draft Tyreke Evans as Martin’s backcourt mate will loom large for this franchise. Evans is a talented kid, but he should not be the guy running an offense from day one. Martin is an excellent player and he necessitates a proper complement from the point guard position, and Sacramento effectively ignored that, taking the player they presumably saw as the best available and missed the giant “fit” red flags. Evans can do some amazing things on the court, but his passing ability and unselfishness are not at the level of a guy who needs to shoulder that load, which proves especially jarring considering a near perfect fit was on the board staring them in the face.
23. Washington
In my time observing the NBA, there have been a few trades that have stuck in my craw over the years. Washington’s decision to trade the #5 pick to Minnesota a few days before the draft will almost assuredly join that inauspicious group. The first baffling part about the move is that Mike Miller and Randy Foye effectively lock in the Wizards’ non-big man personnel on the court, and there is one lingering flaw: DEFENSE. A perimeter core of Arenas, Tuff Juice, Miller, and Foye should score a lot of points, but it is awfully hard to see what they will do to stop any high-level team in their conference, particularly in the playoffs. Assuming they keep Foye further than this year, that core will take minutes away from guys who could make this team more well-rounded and dangerous. That decision is made even more awkward by the fact that Ricky Rubio, who would have been excellent for this team, ended up being available at #5, but of course Washington had already dumped the pick. The Wiz do have a solid amount of talent, but their fit together is flawed and they have the perfect coach to lead them to 2 or 3 years of 1st round playoff losses.
24. Phoenix
Another mind boggling summer in the Valley of the Sun. While Phoenix didn’t sell any draft picks this year, they managed to make an incredibly strange team. While everyone and their mother knows that it’s good for Amare to have a big next to him who can defend, Phoenix will be going with a murderer’s row of Channing Frye, Earl Clark (a good player, just not as a PF next to Amare), and Robin Lopez. Add to that the fact that the Suns have moved most of the guys who drilled perimeter shots on the “7 Seconds or Less” teams for guys with different games and you see why it is difficult to see the Suns as threats to make any noise in a loaded West. It was nice of Nash to sign an extension, but I don’t think any hardcore NBA fan wants to see him spend his last few years fighting for the 8-seed.
25. Dallas
Mark Cuban had a choice of whether he wanted to build for the long term or short term this summer. Shockingly, as the only player personnel guy with literally infinite job security, he decided to shoot short-term despite staring at the superior Lakers and Spurs. They responded to Orlando matching Marcin Gortat by making a mediocre PF army in Tim Thomas, Drew Gooden, and Kris Humphries while letting C Ryan Hollins go. I know they want to run, but having Dampier and Dirk as the only two guys on roster who can play C is a terrible strategy.
What makes the Mavs’ choices all the stranger is that they went purely for the future in the draft: Rodrique Beaubois and Nick Calathes were both very good picks, but neither will contribute while Marion and Kidd are still productive.
Regardless, the Mavs are a key team to watch as 2010 shakes out, because Erick Dampier’s non-guaranteed final year allows him to be traded after next season for an immediate salary cap dump if so desired, which could come in incredibly handy for the right team. The signing of Shawn Marion is also somewhat baffling, since he and Josh Howard overlap pretty strongly and both have a history of whining when unhappy. The real question is whether making a stronger team this year was worth weakening the future. To me, that answer is clear considering it would be an upset for this Mavs team to make the conference finals.
26. Cleveland
Danny Ferry decides to use his expiring contracts to make his team better: Good call.
The player he gives up those assets for turning out to be Shaq: Bad call.
Trading for Shaq with Big Z on roster is more than baffling. Now, I enjoy Shaq off the court as much as anyone, but there is no reasonable way that the two he and Z can be on the court at the same time. Shaq has a use against Dwight Howard, but he came at the expense of adding a piece that could have a much larger impact on a game-to-game basis.
Plus, any combo of Shaq/Z and Varejao carries many of the same problems that sank Cleveland this past season in a seven-game series against a good team. This is still an impossibly shallow team at the swingmen spots despite having the best player in the league who can also play 40 a game.
The best thing that happened to Cleveland was Orlando becoming a more conventional team- they basically lucked into a more favorable matchup. While I believe the Cavs’ long-term talent is better than New York’s, I’m not sure that the margin is sufficient to take even them out of the running for LeBron, much less places like Miami and New Jersey that have legit pieces in place.
Also, grabbing Christian Eyenga may have seemed like one of those Spurs-like moves at the time, but what are the odds this team needs a guy like him three years from now? For Cleveland, the only time that matters is now, and they did not do a good job of maximizing their assets to make the best team possible for a title run this year.
27. Indiana
As a Warriors fan, I understand that was keeps a mediocre team mediocre is an inability to make dramatic improvements to the team. With Mike Dunleavy and Troy Murphy under contract until 2011, it was clear that Indiana was in a sort of holding pattern until that point in terms of free agents or cap-centric trades. Since that basic idea has been clear since 2007, it seemed reasonable to assume that Indiana would spend the next few seasons getting guys that fit within that timeline, and players like Roy Hibbert and Brandon Rush worked fine since their RFA year is 2012.
However, signing a soon-to-be 29 years old Dahntay Jones for a four-year contract does not appear to fit very well within that, especially if they want to groom Rush for the SG slot. Of course, it is worth noting that overreacting on a deal with a little over $2.5m/year is a little silly, but teams like Indiana don’t have a ton of space to work with and this team will have a ton of holes to patch in their small window of leverage. Taking Tyler Hansbrough over players like Earl Clark, Ty Lawson, and Jrue Holiday seems awfully short-sighted too. I understand why it is incredibly important to have “good guys” on a team based in Indianapolis (in fact, I had a discussion on this point with a IN native a little while back), but T-Hans is a career back-up at the most expendable position for guys like that, taken in the lottery. This team has a #1 scorer (Granger), but will need to be incredibly savvy with the rest of their team-building to make a squad worthy of him, and they simply were not this off-season.
28. Orlando
Lordy, lordy. A problem that is far more common for NFL teams than NBA teams is management’s inability to recognize why their team succeeded the previous year, effectively building on top of the wrong foundation. There may have never been a more stark example of this than the 2009 Orlando Magic off-season. The Magic succeeded last season by combining the best rebounder in the NBA with four guys who could stretch the floor, forcing the other team to be incredibly uncomfortable on defense while Orlando kept their heads above water when they were on D. So what did they do? Take one of those four perimeter players and move him into the interior.
While Rashard Lewis will undoubtedly play some minutes at the PF slot, Orlando didn’t sign Brandon Bass and Marcin Gortat to sit them on the bench. What makes it even more jarring is that neither Bass nor Gortat is really a big that can stretch the floor in a meaningful way, so teams like Cleveland and Boston (you know, Orlando’s competition) can defend them with their current big man rotations without issue. Furthermore, part of what made Orlando so good last season was that they had multiple options for crunch time situations in Rashard and Hedo.
Whether or not it was Otis Smith’s fault, Hedo leaving changes that dynamic. Also, the Magic went from having a dynamic swingman group with Hedo, Shard, the criminally underrated Courtney Lee, Pietrus, and some JJ Redick to a much narrow rotation thanks to Vince Carter coming in coupled with Bass/Gortat grabbing big man minutes. Orlando did become a deeper team and deserves some credit for that, but success for teams that make the Finals changes to championships instead of playoff seed, and Orlando just got a whole lot easier to take out.
29. Memphis
It’s hard to think that a team that gets great value in DeMarre Carroll and Sam Young late in the draft could be this low. I mean, for a team to do that, they would have to completely waste a really valuable draft pick on a guy who makes no sense with their current roster… Hasheem Thabeet seems like a nice guy and he brings interesting physical attributes to the table, but he simply is not a good basketball player. I drew some fire before the draft for comparing Thabeet to DeSagana Diop, but the comparison is pretty close. Thabeet may be the most raw offensive player to get minutes in the NBA in my lifetime. Of course, he can get better, but it will take a looooong time, if it even happens. Also, there is no coherent explanation for how Thabeet and Marc Gasol would play together- neither a more svelte Gasol nor Hasheem can remotely guard NBA power forwards, and the offense would be abysmal too. What makes it worse is that guys like Ricky Rubio and Tyreke Evans could have been fascinating fits with OJ Mayo and Rudy Gay, the real core of the team.
Naturally, Chris Wallace didn’t stop there- after all, Memphis was one of the only teams that actually had salary cap space to work with, so it would be smart to leverage the bejeezus out of the cash-strapped teams. So Memphis did what any team with excellent bargaining position does- traded an expiring contract for Zach Randolph. Yes, the guy who has been a full-time starter in the NBA for six seasons and has never made the playoffs in that span. Yes, the guy who had more turnovers per game than Billups and Mo Williams and less assists per game than Gerald Wallace and Dominic McGuire. Yes, the guy with the exact same contract as Pau Gasol. Now, Memphis is locked into a big man trio of Z-Bo, Hasheem Thabeet, and Marc Gasol, seemingly souring on Mike Conley, and with zero meaningful cap flexibility until 2011. Bravo.
30. Detroit
There is one thing worse than making a terrible situation worse: ruining an opportunity. As someone who defended the Iverson for Billups trade because of the potential it gave Detroit to move beyond their aging core, the decisions Joe Dumars made this summer have come as a genuine shock. It seems best to go through each of the problems with paying Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva an estimated $18 million per year: They are a horrible fit together since neither is strong at defense, it moves Rodney Stuckey firmly to PG where he had a negative net PER this past season and hasn’t shown the ability to run an offense, Gordon and Stuckey form the worst defensive backcourt in the entire league, neither back-court player is a distributor by nature, there is not much cap flexibility, and Detroit is spending $12 million on Charlie V and Jason Maxiell manning the power forward slot.
The other surprising part about it is that it obviously changes the tone and minute distribution for the team, but both Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince are still on roster and somewhat interesting to move considering their ages, current contracts, and the fact that Detroit is leverage-less in negotiations to move them. What kills me about the deals is that you are spending $18 million for two guys, neither of whom is a #1 scorer, lead guard, or lead big man. While they might not have gotten a max-quality guy in 2010, it sure seemed worth a shot. The other mindblowing decision of this offseason was drafting Austin Daye, Jonas Jerebko, and DeJuan Summers, all of whom play small forward. That provides enough of a problem considering each is worthy of minutes that would squeeze out the position, but it comes to a head considering Tayshaun Prince will play all of his minutes there with PF filled by Charlie V and Maxiell and Rip Hamilton should slide over with Ben Gordon at SG. Joe Dumars had a largely blank slate to build a team with some solid assets, and he turned that into a squad with no #1 scorer, no point guard, no young defenders, and no low post scorers. Now that’s an accomplishment.