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View Full Version : Analyzing The Off Season Moves By The San Antonio Spurs



duncan228
09-02-2009, 02:45 PM
One opinion.

Analyzing the off season moves by the San Antonio Spurs (http://readbetweenthebaselines.blogspot.com/2009/08/analyzing-off-season-moves-by-san.html)

The San Antonio Spurs did not win the Championship last year, breaking the cycle of winning one every other year (2003, 05, and 07) and the 33-year-old "Big Fundamental," who hasn't missed significant amounts of games since 2005, by the way, but needs one last thrust to win another ring before age, economy, and free agency kicks in to break apart a very good team. Therefore, the Spurs traded Bruce Bowen, Kurt Thomas, and Fabricio Oberto for Richard Jefferson and signed big men Theo Ratliff and Antonio McDyess. Spurs' motto this year is "Go big or go home" (and of course the mainstay, "Go Spurs! Go!").

Facts:

* Richard Jefferson is a 29-year-old SF and averaged 19.6/4.6/2.4, shooting 43.9% and hitting 1.4 3pters for the Milwaukee Bucks last year. He is owed $14.2 million due in 09/10 and $15 mil due in 10/11. Free Agent summer of 2011.

* Antonio McDyess is a 35-year-old PF and averaged 9.6/9.8/1.3, shooting 51.1% last year for the Detroit Pistons. He is owed $5.8 million due in 09/10, $6.3 mil in 10/11 and $6.7 mil in 11/12. Free agent summer of 2012.

* Theo Ratliff is a 36-year-old C and averaged 1.9/2.8/.2 shooting 53.1% and blocking 1 shot per game last year in 12 minutes per game for 46 games for the Philadelphia 76ers. He was signed to the veteran minimum, owed $1.3 million in 09/10. Free agent summer of 2010.

Read between the baselines:

There's really not much to read between the baselines for the reasons the Bucks made this trade. They have a hefty payroll as of right now with Michael Redd's contract of $17 mil and Andrew Bogut's $10 mil (along with 4 years after that, increasing to $14 mil in 2014). They also have a bad contractin Dan Gadzuric ($14 mil next 2 years). Overall, right now after the trade, there is $67.5 million on the payroll, a lot for a small market team. With Kurt Thomas and Bruce Bowen's expiring contracts combined with the expiring contracts they already have, that number drops to $50 million in 2010/11. Reports say that they may waive Bruce Bowen this year and possibly also Kurt Thomas. They have already traded Oberto to Detroit for Amir Johnson, and then traded Amir Johnson for Roko Ukic and Carlos Delfino but ANYWAY.

There's really not much to read between the baselines for the reasons the Spurs made this trade either. With the strong teams getting stronger (Cavs-Shaq, Magic-Carter, Lakers-Artest, Celtics-Sheed), the Spurs had to keep up and added an athletic scorer who can play above average defense.

What did the Spurs gain by getting Jefferson?

Richard Jefferson is 29 years old going into his 9th NBA season after spending his first 7 season in New Jersey with Jason Kidd and Kenyon Martin. He helped them reach the finals twice, losing to the Lakers and Spurs in 2002 (his rookie year) and 2003 respectively. His best years were in the middle of his Nets years where he averaged around 20 points a game, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 1 steal. Richard Jefferson can score, although he probably can't spread the floor that much given his 35% career 3pt shooting. However, last year on the Bucks, he averaged 1.4 3 pters made on 39% 3pt shooting...

What did the Spurs give up to get Jefferson?

* One of their veterans and better defenders in 38-year-old Bruce Bowen, who had a significant drop in playing time last year (from 30 minutes in 08 to 18 minutes in 09), perhaps indicative that he had lost a step in his defensive step, although he's been solid throughout his whole career. After likely being waived by the Bucks, it would be more than likely that he'd re-sign with the Spurs.

* Back up center Fabricio Oberto who only averaged 12 minutes a game in 54 games last year. Played good post defense and was an adequate center off of the bench for the Spurs.

* Back up PF Kurt Thomas, who was traded for to help post defense against then-newly accquired Sun Shaq and then-newly accquired Laker Pau. (It worked, by the way, as the Spurs got past the Suns last year in the playoffs, but couldn't get past the Lakers who went on to the Finals). Thomas averaged 4.3/5.1/.8 and shot 50.3%. A good post defender with a nice jump shot from about the free throw line.

So these two back ups and sometimes starter defense specialist for Richard Jefferson. They then replaced their two lost bigs with, what else... TWO BIGS.

Antonio McDyess is an upgrade from Thomas and has the capabilities to get a double double (he sure was close last year). He is the probable starter at PF. Although age may be catching up with him, he won't be asked to do more than provide defense while the stars, Manu, Parker, Jefferson and TD make up the bigger part of the team's contributions.

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Theo Ratliff is a shotblocker, plain and simple. He won't score a lot, but he can score on putbacks and block shots if players reach the paint. He will serve well for the price they are paying him. Matt Bonner, who started at center last year, will also be coming off the bench with Ratliff. (Although they could start Bonner at C again this year, and have McDyess be the main backup for Duncan).

Plain and simple, the Spurs boosted their scoring and interior depth. Last year, the Spurs ranked 12th (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats?sort=offeff&seasonType=2&league=nba&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fhollinger%2fteamstats%3fsort%3doffeff%26seasonT ype%3d2%26league%3dnba) in Off Eff, scoring 106.2 points per 100 possessions and 6th in Def Eff (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats?sort=defeff&seasonType=2&league=nba&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnba %2fhollinger%2fteamstats%3fsort%3ddefeff%26seasonT ype%3d2%26league%3dnba), allowing 102 points per 100 possessions. Richard Jefferson's offense (and for their sake) hopefully a healthy Manu Ginobili (44 games last year) should boost their Off Eff. Antonio McDyess' one on one defense should at least keep the Def Eff around the same number of 100-104 (along with the Spurs' defensive mentality and team identity).

Probable Starting Lineup:

PG: Tony Parker/George Hill
SG: Manu Ginobili/Roger Mason
SF: Richard Jefferson/Michael Finely
PF: Antonio McDyess/Bonner/Ratliff
C: Tim Duncan/Ratliff/McDyess/Bonner

Can this lineup compete with the recharged NBA elite like the Lakers, Cleveland, or the Celtics? Health permitting, yes, but it may not put them over the top. McDyess and Duncan are a somewhat twin tower action that can defend the post with very nicely. But can KG, Pau Gasol, Shaq, and Dwight score on them? Probably, yes.

But this team will compete and have a deep playoff run and could challenge for the western conference championship. In a weakened division with the Rockets without Yao and McGrady, and the Grizzlies who are not a good basketball team, this team should get a lot of wins and have a high seed in the West. Don't sleep on McDyess, he's not only a good defender, but can hit a midrange jumpshot (better than Kurt Thomas could) if teams collapse on Duncan. And along with Richard Jefferson, this team's offense should only improve (and be a little more exciting).

Those are the facts, and that's one way to read between the [base]lines.

Here's Richard Jefferson dunking on his new teammates.

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MrFundamental
09-02-2009, 02:50 PM
I hope for the writers' sake he/she wrote this a couple months ago.

Ocotillo
09-02-2009, 02:50 PM
I guess the writer doesn't consider the draft to be part of the off-season.

Libri
09-02-2009, 02:54 PM
Probable Starting Lineup:

PG: Tony Parker/George Hill
SG: Manu Ginobili/Roger Mason
SF: Richard Jefferson/Michael Finely
PF: Antonio McDyess/Bonner/Ratliff
C: Tim Duncan/Ratliff/McDyess/Bonner
There is no mention of Blair.

DynastySpurs210
09-02-2009, 02:58 PM
I wonder what's the ranking for the Spurs on NBA 2K10 hmm..

http://static.gamecrazy.com/images/games/boxart/14274.jpg

MrFundamental
09-02-2009, 03:00 PM
There is no mention of Blair.
But there is mention of the Bucks possibly waiving Bowen. I wonder if that will happen :lmao

portnoy1
09-02-2009, 05:15 PM
The Spurs still need a 7ft or someone to play Behind duncan. A second big man. Mcdyess/Blair are PF and Bonner cant even be mentioned as a big man IMO. Ratliff is the only true center. The spurs still need another 7ft that is young and athletic. The RJ trade was nice, but the paint is where the game is won offensively and defensively. If someone gets past Duncan who is there, ( Mcdyess ). He is not a shot blocker. The spurs arent dominant anymore because they no-longer have 2 7footers clogging the Lane. If it weren't for that the 2006 loss to the Mavs Pop would still be doing the 2 big men thing. Unfortunately ever since that series the Pop has tryed to go small with Tim Duncan at the 5. Since that time more and more guards have gotten to the front of the rim unmolested. Thomas/Oberto wasn't a great combination but it did the Job. Once Bonner was placed at the 5, Pops philosophy was immediately exposed. Mcdyess will be good for the spurs but the problem is still there.

Thompson
09-02-2009, 05:52 PM
The Spurs still need a 7ft or someone to play Behind duncan. A second big man. The spurs still need another 7ft that is young and athletic.

Ian Mahinmi (6'11") this year, and Tiago Splitter (6'11.75") will be here next year to help him out (hopefully).

barbacoataco
09-02-2009, 10:31 PM
The Spurs are hoping that out of Mahinmi, Blair and Haislip at least one and maybe two of those guys can contribute.