"The recession is over"

[Viva Las Espuelas]

whew. i was starting to sweat.

[Winehole23]

Meanwhile, quantitative easing will proceed (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125295930755909689.html) for the foreseeable future.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Meanwhile, quantitative easing will proceed (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125295930755909689.html) for the foreseeable future.
but of course

[Winehole23]

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_May2009/Image/LisaCatch/JMJM1.jpg

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/fed-bernanke-deflation-inflation-reflation-printing-money-printing-currency-velocity/index/a/24469/p/1

[Viva Las Espuelas]

http://image.minyanville.com/assets/FCK_May2009/Image/LisaCatch/JMJM1.jpg

http://www.minyanville.com/articles/fed-bernanke-deflation-inflation-reflation-printing-money-printing-currency-velocity/index/a/24469/p/1

deflation?

[Winehole23]

deflation?Yep. Think about why such massive QE hasn't already resulted in hyperinflation, and about why the Fed is nowhere near applying the brakes.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Yep. Think about why such massive QE hasn't already resulted in hyperinflation, and about why the Fed is nowhere near applying the brakes.
even with all that money that was printed?

[Winehole23]

Nowhere near.

[ChumpDumper]

Who said the recession was over?

Link.

[Bartleby]

Bernanke, apparently. Just heard a story about it on NPR.

http://www.kansascity.com/444/story/1448147.html

[ChumpDumper]

Most mainstream economists think that the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official scorekeeper of when recessions begin and end, eventually will declare that this downturn came to an end in the summer or early fall of 2009.So it's the opinion of most mainstream economists.

Makes sense now.

[Winehole23]

GDP growth doesn't tell the whole story. From the jobs standpoint, it may be with us for years.

Mainstream economists aslo predict a long period of slow growth that may not be "experientially" much different from recession.

[ChumpDumper]

Right. I don't see anyone saying different.

[SpurNation]

I believe Obama said it in the beginning of his health care speech as well.

[Winehole23]

Right. I don't see anyone saying different.Maybe not in so many words, but there is some happy talk, and GDP recovery is being stressed. Viva didn't pull it out of thin air.

[ChumpDumper]

Maybe not in so many words, but there is some happy talk, and GDP recovery is being stressed.As is the slow recovery of jobs -- almost in the same sentence.

[Winehole23]

Sure. Viva's focus was selective. That's not so surprising, is it?


"From a technical perspective, the recession is very likely over at this point," Bernanke said in responding to questions at the Brookings Institution. "It's still going to feel like a very weak economy for some time because many people will still find that their job security and their employment status is not what they wish it was."

[boutons_deux]

60% of employees polled said they feared losing their jobs or having the job income reduced.

For citizens, it sure looks like a L-shaped recovery, much like Japan's in 1990s.

Most of the stimulus money is still to be spent, but probably the stimulus was too small given the evaporation of consumer spending.

corps and financial sector will do OK.

Many of the quality jobs will never come back. "disaster capitalism"

Pretty cool when the capitalists create and exploit the disaster ... for everybody else.

[Viva Las Espuelas]

Sure. Viva's focus was selective. That's not so surprising, is it?
yeah "recession" is pretty selective. i guess my demands to the MSM to repress the rest of the info went tits up. guilty as charged.

[ChumpDumper]

So what was your point in making this thread?

[TeyshaBlue]

So what was your point in making this thread?

Chump-fishing....and successfully, apparently.:lol

[ChumpDumper]

Chump-fishing....and successfully, apparenty.:lolAre you Viva?

[TeyshaBlue]

Are you Viva?

What do you think?

[ChumpDumper]

I don't know.

Are you?

[Nbadan]

The hyper-inflation crowd sure is quiet......where are those run away prices?

[Winehole23]

The hyper-inflation crowd sure is quiet......where are those run away prices?All things in due time. Did you miss the beginning of the conversation, Dan?

[iggypop123]

meh california is still in hell

[Yonivore]

meh california is still in hell
And, fourth quarter unemployment numbers will be the worst in decades.

But, thank God Obama is saving and creating jobs...

Just imagine where unemployment would be without that stimulus:

http://michaelscomments.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/augustunempdata.jpg

Oh, that's right, Obama said it would lower than it is now. Things that make you go hmmmm...

And, if he was this far off on predicting unemployment...think about his Health Care figures.

[iggypop123]

And, fourth quarter unemployment numbers will be the worst in decades.

But, thank God Obama is saving and creating jobs...

Just imagine where unemployment would be without that stimulus:

http://michaelscomments.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/augustunempdata.jpg

Oh, that's right, Obama said it would lower than it is now. Things that make you go hmmmm...

And, if he was this far off on predicting unemployment...think about his Health Care figures.

my school would face more cuts and furloughs and layoffs and bigger class sizes higher tuition. oh man i sure hate that stimulus!

[TDMVPDPOY]

even though unemployment is stable or better than what was expected, how many of them jobs or ppl in jobs are fkn under-employed? that is not getting their usual hours compared to what they were getting b4 the recession....

[Yonivore]

even though unemployment is stable or better than what was expected,...
It's neither.


... how many of them jobs or ppl in jobs are fkn under-employed? that is not getting their usual hours compared to what they were getting b4 the recession....
A bunch.

[Nbadan]

Wow...our service-oriented society is succeptable to the effects of tightening credit and less consumer demand - who would have thought?

:rolleyes

[Nbadan]

The Final Demise of A Speculative Housing Bubble (September 16, 2009)



The speculative mania in housing has been extended by massive Federal Reserve and government intervention; the government now owns or guarantees 2/3 of U.S. mortgages.

While speculative bubbles may pop in terms of sales and valuations, the psychology that underpinned the mania lives on for some time--especially if government extends the speculation with massive interventions.

I sincerely doubt the average American understands the full measure of Federal intervention to prop up the U.S. housing market. The numbers casually dropped (with little context, of course--this is pure MSM "coverage," after all) in the Wall Street Journal report No Easy Exit for Government as Housing Market's Savior (WSJ.com) are truly mind-boggling:

To keep funds flowing to the housing market, the government bailed out Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac last year and now effectively owns the mortgage finance giants and their combined $5.4 trillion in loan portfolios. To keep mortgage rates low, the Federal Reserve is on track to purchase nearly $1.5 trillion in debt issued or guaranteed by the government's various mortgage arms and another $300 billion in Treasurys, which set the benchmark for home lending.

What the reporters fail to mention is the value of all U.S. mortgages is about $10 trillion-- meaning the U.S. government now guarantees over half of all mortgages just with Fannie and Freddie.

But wait--it gets worse--much worse:

Link (http://www.oftwominds.com/blogsept09/speculative-housing09-09.html?ref=patrick.net)

[symple19]

I call bullshit. It's not over, nor is it near over. Go and look at Japan throughout the 90s and you'll get an idea of what will happen to us if the government continues to act like jackasses. Douchebags associated with the Obama regime are trying to soothe peoples ears/hearts/minds with BS. If you take into account the unemployment rate + under-employed + those not reporting being unemployed (e.g. living off savings) and what you get is 16% ---- http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=CNG.4452bed82adf3124e5884678e236d7f b.361&show_article=1 ---- I've seen some economists say it's even higher than that, around 18% or 19%. Where are the new industries that will begin to create the new jobs needed in order to get people back to work? Green Jobs? LOL. If Cap & Trade passes this will get worse. Stop listening to the moronic Government mouthpieces. This is far from over.

[ChumpDumper]

Do you guys read anything other than thread titles before you start typing?

[George Gervin's Afro]

The unemployment rate went up to 9.7%, reversing the improvement we saw in July. To be fair, “unemployment” is somewhat difficult to measure. For one thing, the way the unemployment rate is calculated doesn’t take into account the people who are no longer looking for work. (You know, the “discouraged workers” we heard about endlessly during the Bush years.) So you could see the economy improve but the unemployment rate actually go up, because more people start looking for work.

Yoni forgot to include this part of his borrowed blog.. you righties have zero intellectual integrity.. so the economy is getting better yet jobs lag. I wonder if Yoni realizes that..

[Winehole23]

Yoni forgot to include this part of his borrowed blog.. you righties have zero intellectual integrity.. so the economy is getting better yet jobs lag. I wonder if Yoni realizes that..If the economy is getting better, why does the Fed plan to continue QE for the foreseeable future?

[Winehole23]

If people are still losing jobs and will for the next year or two, AND the anticipated recovery will not keep pace with new entrants to the workforce, what sense does it make to stress the technical recovery?

[angrydude]

Yep. Think about why such massive QE hasn't already resulted in hyperinflation, and about why the Fed is nowhere near applying the brakes.

because inflation never occurs until the last person in line gets the dollar.

on the other hand inflation is awesome if you're the first person who gets the money.

on a completely unrelated note how are those banks doing right now?

[Winehole23]

on a completely unrelated note how are those banks doing right now?92 banks have failed this year, and a wave of defaults in prime, jumbo and commercial real estate is coming. Most of the Alt-A loans written in 2007 will reset next year, and the general rate of defaults shows no sign of abating.

Looks bad for banks.

[coyotes_geek]

The bank stocks have done pretty well the last couple of months. But I'm still nowhere near brave enough to stick my toe back in that pool.

[Winehole23]

Stiglitz (http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/09/17/exclusive-nobel-winner-joseph-stiglitz-predicts-recessions-end/): 2012, maybe.

[coyotes_geek]

Wouldn't be surprised if he's right. If he is, that could give obama some trouble in 2012.

[Wild Cobra]

Stiglitz (http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/09/17/exclusive-nobel-winner-joseph-stiglitz-predicts-recessions-end/): 2012, maybe.
Do you think he really means 12/21/12 at 11:11 universal time, when the Mayan calender ends?