5 Second Rounders Who Will Make A Difference

[duncan228]

5 Second Rounders Who Will Make A Difference (http://dimemag.com/2009/09/5-second-rounders-who-will-make-a-difference/)
By Gerald Narciso
Dime

There is something about second round players that I just really like. Maybe it’s because they come into the league hungry and with a big chip on their shoulder for being overlooked. Most play with a sense of urgency because unlike the Draft’s first thirty, there is no guaranteed paper. Last year, second rounders like Luc Mbah a Moute, Mario Chalmers (http://dimemag.com/2009/08/mario-chalmers-talks-michael-beasley-allen-iverson-rumors-and-miami-heat/) and DeAndre Jordan made some noise. Here are five late round rookies who are going to GMs pay for passing on them.

1. DeJuan Blair, Spurs: Many were shocked when this big man from Pitt slipped all the way to the 37th pick. In the summer league, Blair gave everybody a preview on what he can do by averaging 16.3 points and 8.7 rebounds per game. His toughness and soft touch should be a good fit with Gregg Popovich’s system. Blair has the potential to be the next Paul Millsap.

2. Chase Budinger, Rockets: With his size, athleticism and shooting touch, Chase was destined to be a lottery pick. But leading up to the draft, scouts and GMs started questioning his toughness, leadership skills and ability to put the ball on the floor. Like Blair, Budinger impressed in the Summer League averaging 17.8 points, while shooting a ridiculous 72.7 percent from three-point land. With Yao out (http://dimemag.com/2009/08/this-will-make-rick-adelmans-head-explode/), the Rockets will definitely welcome another scorer.

3. Jodie Meeks, Bucks: Scoring 54 points in game in college didn’t stop scouts from hating on Meeks’ game. The former Kentucky Wildcat was labeled as being too small for a shooting guard with poor shot selection and a lack of a handle. Meeks had a good showing in Vegas, but still has a lot to prove. Lucky for him, he plays on the Bucks so the opportunity for burn will be available. If he proves to be a good three-point shooter on this level, he could have a job for years to come.

4. Sam Young, Grizzlies: Just like Blair, his teammate at Pitt, Young was a projected first rounder. A third team all-american, he was one of the best players in college basketball last season. Young has a Kobe-like work ethic and is a great athlete. He had some big games in the summer league and will find himself in the rotation come fall.

5. Taylor Griffin, Suns: For the past two years, Taylor has been buried in the shadow of his famous younger brother Blake (http://dimemag.com/2009/09/top-5-contenders-for-nba-rookie-of-the-year/). But those who have seen Taylor play knows he has some game himself. He is a hard nosed player who rebounds and blocks shots well considering his size. Griffin reminds me a little of Matt Harpring the way he plays.

[K-State Spur]

He had me until he threw Taylor Griffin out there. He'll have about as much impact as Stephen Graham did.

Harpring's a terrible comp. He was an all-american coming out of Georgia Tech who averaged 19, 19, & 22 PPG his last 3 years. Taylor Griffin? His career high was 6.5 last year. Harpring also averaged 8, 8, 9 RPG during that same span. Griffin - despite being a guy who was basically asked to do nothing but play defense and rebound - just set a career high of...5.

[Ocotillo]

Sam Young will be nice.

[Muser]

How many shots did Chase take for Houston? That's a crazy shooting %, even for SL.

[mazerrackham]

How many shots did Chase take for Houston? That's a crazy shooting %, even for SL.

I watched a few of Houston's games, and Buddinger was indeed taking lots of shots, I dunno the numbers, but he wasn't gun-shy. He was just nailing everything. If I had to guess, I would say he was averaging 4-5 3 point attempts a game.

[TimDunkem]

He only took about 2 threes a game.

[mazerrackham]

He only took about 2 threes a game.

Fair enough, I thought I remembered a lot of his points coming off of threes. Regardless his percentage was insane.

[Seventyniner]

8/11 comes out to 72.7%.

[TimDunkem]

Fair enough, I thought I remembered a lot of his points coming off of threes. Regardless his percentage was insane.
Yeah, you can't knock him. He was making most of them.

[BWS-1994]

Sam Young will be nice.

Hope the Grizz give him some minutes. Playing behind Rudy Gay would be difficult though.

[Chieflion]

Hope the Grizz give him some minutes. Playing behind Rudy Gay would be difficult though.
That is not the problem. He still ain't gonna see the ball even when he is on the court with all the ball-hogs on the team.

[Lars]

Budinger was on fire in the summer league. Looked alot like Dirk out there, but then again, it was only the summer league =P

[Kindergarten Cop]

8/11 comes out to 72.7%.

You are correct. He went 3/3, 2/2, 1/2, 1/2, and 1/2 from three-point range in his five summer league games, for a total of 8/11 (72.7%).

http://www.nba.com/summerleague2009/players/index.jsp?player=chase_budinger

[exstatic]

Anthony Tolliver shot lights out in the 2008 SL. It didn't carry over.

[MaNu4Tres]

Law of averages doesn't justify Chase Budinger being a 75 percent shooter. There's just no way. His real shooting percentage will play out during the course of an 82 game season not a 5 or 6 game summer league.

Ask George Hill.

[ShoogarBear]

I'm going to go out on the limb with Manu4Tres and predict that Chase Budinger will not shoot 75% for the year from the arc.

[TIMMYD!]

The Moment I read the thread title I knew it was DeJuan Blair.

[Biggems]

Look for Griffin to be a Najera-type player. He will hustle, frustrate opponents, rebound, pass well, and can stroke the outside shot. He has a high basketball IQ.

[exstatic]

When SA drafted Blair, my immediate thought was "Duncan got his Rodman, minus the psychoses!!". Blair is like a giant bad/missed shot eraser for your bench.

[Samr]

Pretty sure I woke up the neighbors on draft night. I haven't been that excited on draft night since the Spurs drafted Duncan (that being said, I also hadn't previously heard of the Spurs' pick since the Duncan draft either).

Here's an interesting question for the off-season doldrums:

Who else do you think, beside the Spurs, DuJuan Blair would have been a perfect/scary fit on?

Memphis? New Orleans? Cleveland? Boston?

[DPG21920]

Only 16 days until we see what the Spurs have. I cannot wait.

[exstatic]

Pretty sure I woke up the neighbors on draft night. I haven't been that excited on draft night since the Spurs drafted Duncan (that being said, I also hadn't previously heard of the Spurs' pick since the Duncan draft either).

Here's an interesting question for the off-season doldrums:

Who else do you think, beside the Spurs, DuJuan Blair would have been a perfect/scary fit on?

Memphis? New Orleans? Cleveland? Boston?

Lakers, and they dumped a pick that would have allowed it. I guess they were gun shy after all of Bynum's injuries.

[Samr]

Blair would have been great for Cleveland. I personally think Eyenga was a terrible first round pick. If the Cavs had a chance to draft a player like Blair to fill out their front court they should have done it.


You have to consider, the draft in general is a gamble. Everything is a gamble.

A lot of teams draft players that have the raw ability to wreak havoc but are not yet, nor may they ever be, quite there physically; a lot of teams also draft these "potential" picks too high (Grizzlies, I'm looking at you).

Brandon Jennings has the physical skills, and the body, but his attitude is a BIG "if" hanging over his future. Again, drafted very high; he was a calculated gamble.

You see foreign guys crop up all over that have played very well professional overseas and teams are hoping their skills convert. Jian Liang (sp?) a good example. He's a gamble, but again, a calculated one.

So then you look at a guy like Blair, a guy with the skills, the body, and the attitude that will directly translate to the NBA. His health issues provide the gamble. So let's say you get 3-4 years and a good role player out of him, isn't that worth it alone?

But teams get scared by the Bynums and Odens of the league. They had health risks, and it doomed them. But Bynum was also a risk; only 18 when he was taken. Oden was receiving AARP checks before he graduated high school.

It amazes me that people passed on Blair.

And I'm so happy they did.

[Muser]

If Blair hadn't of fell to our first pick then didn't Pop or RC say they would of used it on McClinton?

[exstatic]

If Blair hadn't of fell to our first pick then didn't Pop or RC say they would of used it on McClinton?

I think they said they were looking at DeColo and McClinton at 37. Sweet that we ended up getting Blair AND both of them.

[exstatic]

You have to consider, the draft in general is a gamble. Everything is a gamble.

A lot of teams draft players that have the raw ability to wreak havoc but are not yet, nor may they ever be, quite there physically; a lot of teams also draft these "potential" picks too high (Grizzlies, I'm looking at you).

Brandon Jennings has the physical skills, and the body, but his attitude is a BIG "if" hanging over his future. Again, drafted very high; he was a calculated gamble.

You see foreign guys crop up all over that have played very well professional overseas and teams are hoping their skills convert. Jian Liang (sp?) a good example. He's a gamble, but again, a calculated one.

So then you look at a guy like Blair, a guy with the skills, the body, and the attitude that will directly translate to the NBA. His health issues provide the gamble. So let's say you get 3-4 years and a good role player out of him, isn't that worth it alone?

But teams get scared by the Bynums and Odens of the league. They had health risks, and it doomed them. But Bynum was also a risk; only 18 when he was taken. Oden was receiving AARP checks before he graduated high school.

It amazes me that people passed on Blair.

And I'm so happy they did.

I can see not picking Blair where he was projected (late lottery), but for heaven's sake, taking a flyer on him the last 5 picks of the first round is a 2 year commitment at $1M or less per year. I'm glad that teams were that stupid/scared.

[mountainballer]

Young is good, but I don't think he will see enough minutes.
Gay is a minutes eater, he will not play less than 38MPG and thank's to Mayo and AI he also will only play at SF. Young likely won't see more than 10-12 MPG in his rookie season, not enough to make an impact.

Budinger is in a similar situation, if the reports that t-mac is back when the season starts are true. he will fight for some minutes with Taylor and White. (Taylor might go to D-league though). I also can't see him get more minutes than 15.

Taylor Griffin? must be a joke.

Meeks? why not, much rebuilding in Milwaukee, he might find himself in a good situation for PT, especially when Redd isn't 100% healthy.

Blair could definitely become the most impact 2nd rounder. he should be the 3rd best big in the rotation soon and Pop also won't overplay either Tim or Dice. good chance for him to get 20-25MPG and deliver at least impressive rebounding numbers.

[TIMMYD!]

Other teams must be rolling around in bed for not taking Grizzly Blair

[exstatic]

Not really. Few teams didn't have the chance to draft Blair. But maybe 2 years from now the other teams will regret it.

Actually, any team that had a pick and passed on him, and struggling on the boards may regret it THIS year.

[lurker23]

No one is kicking themselves about DeJuan Blair right now. The reason they didn't pick him is still there: the threat of a career-ending knee injury happening at any moment. Those teams (or at least their doctors) probably still think Blair is a ticking time bomb. It won't be until he has a good year or two and remains reasonably healthy that they start thinking that they were wrong.

[exstatic]

No one is kicking themselves about DeJuan Blair right now. The reason they didn't pick him is still there: the threat of a career-ending knee injury happening at any moment. Those teams (or at least their doctors) probably still think Blair is a ticking time bomb. It won't be until he has a good year or two and remains reasonably healthy that they start thinking that they were wrong.

Anyone can suffer a catastrophic knee injury at any time. Think about it: the Spurs were under NO obligation to give him anything other than the minimum non-guaranteed deal that 98% of second rounders get. Yet they came across with late first round money, 2 years guaranteed, 3rd year partial. Why would they do that if he were as fragile as you seem to think? I'm sure their doctors gave him a thorough exam, focusing on the knees. The Spurs don't gamble, especially when every dollar is doubled.

[Amuseddaysleeper]

The biggest thing for SA is that they aren't looking for a franchise/lift the heavy load type player that most teams with a lottery pick are usually looking for.

If someone told SA they would only get 3 solid years from D. Blair before his knees go to hell I can promise you they'd still draft him. They are going all out for the remainder of the Duncan window. If Blair can make an impact immediately during that time, and ends up being injury prone post Duncan's retirement, then so be it, he would have already served his purpose by that point

[lurker23]

Anyone can suffer a catastrophic knee injury at any time. Think about it: the Spurs were under NO obligation to give him anything other than the minimum non-guaranteed deal that 98% of second rounders get. Yet they came across with late first round money, 2 years guaranteed, 3rd year partial. Why would they do that if he were as fragile as you seem to think? I'm sure their doctors gave him a thorough exam, focusing on the knees. The Spurs don't gamble, especially when every dollar is doubled.

I'm not saying that *I* think the Spurs are gambling too much with Blair. As far as I'm concerned, the fact that his injuries were in high school and he played two full seasons of event-free college basketball is proof enough for me. However, doctors across much of the NBA looked that MRIs that were done during combines, saw that he had no discernible ACLs, and red-flagged Blair. The doctors won't care too much five years down the line if they were wrong; it was a much better play for them risk/reward-wise to cover their butts.

I'm sure there are a lot of coaches in the NBA who wanted to draft Blair, but because of these medical results couldn't get the go-ahead to use a first round pick on him (guaranteed money). Beyond the first round, only a small handful of teams passed on him; they likely did so for medical reasons, though the idea still baffles me a bit, since you're not risking very much using a second round pick. The Spurs saw this opportunity and jumped on it.

As far as Blair's contract goes, I think the Spurs made a pretty smart move. Yes, they could have signed him for a couple years for the minimum, but I doubt Blair and his agent would have agreed to more than 2 years, since they believe he's worth more than that. If they proved to be correct, then the Spurs would have limited rights to him and would likely have to bid high to get him back. Instead, they used the extra money to sign him to a longer deal, which has limited risk in the extended term ($500,000 guaranteed in the 3rd year; 4th year fully unguaranteed). If he does well, they have him for all of Duncan's window, and have Bird rights to him. If he is plagued by injuries, they ditch him after two years and move on.

[K-State Spur]

Look for Griffin to be a Najera-type player. He will hustle, frustrate opponents, rebound, pass well, and can stroke the outside shot. He has a high basketball IQ.

he's not a great rebounder, passer, or outside shooter. not really even a 'good' college player in any of those categories.

in najera's last year at OU, he was 18.4 PPG/9.2 RPG/2 APG. In fact, his numbers as a frosh were better than Griffin's as a SENIOR.

[Manufan909]

WTF does everyone see in Taylor? Both comparisons that have been made convincingly shot down, I just don't see it.

And I can't wait for Blair to beast and covince Pop to play him 25-30 mins a game. Screw Mahinmi, Bonner, or Haislip. I want this guy as the obvious 3rd big in the rotation, Mahinmi can be a distant 4th.:toast