tlongII
09-22-2009, 10:43 PM
http://mvn.com/bucksdiary/2009/09/wow-have-people-bailed-early-on-oden.html
I was finishing Charley Rosen's fairly interesting article about the state of NBA's big men (he actually had an unusually fair, sort of correct assessment of Bucks C Andrew Bogut... and I think his theory about why so many big men don't play like big men is dead on) when I noticed a FoxSports.com poll asking which big man had a brighter future, Lakers C Andrew Bynum or Blazers C Greg Oden. No surprise, Bynum won by a landslide.
But why has the basketball public turned so quickly against Greg Oden, a center many considered a high impact player coming out of college? Is it because of his knees? Is it because he has not met their image of a dominant big man? What is it?
As I have chronicled in the past, Oden actually had a very productive rookie season. In fact, he was much more productive overall than Lakers C Andrew Bynum. Lets compare their statistics using each player's Marginal Win Score calculated according to the statistics provided by 82games.com on Bynum's "Production by Position" page and Oden's similar page. Before we get to overall MWS48 stats, though, lets break the metric down into the component parts that each player respectively dominates. First Marginal Effective Scoring, Bynum's strength, and then Marginal Rebounding, Oden's strength.
Marginal "Effective Scoring" per 48 minutes
This is an important component part of the MWS48 win metric and, broken down, it can be calculated as follows: (Player's Points per 48 - FGAs per 48 - .5FTAs per 48) minus (Counterpart Opponent's Points per 48 - FGAs per 48 - .5FTAs per 48). It essentially asks whether the player uses scoring possessions more valuably than the players he guards. If he does, that -- not pure point production -- tends to help produce wins. Bynum clearly is, at the moment, better in this category than Greg Oden, but Oden is not bad. Here are the specifics:
Bynum:
He scores +7.8 points more than his COs, but he uses +3.7 more FGAs and +2.1 more FTAs to do so. Nevertheless, that adds up to a very good MES48 of +3.05.
Oden:
Oden outscores his COs as well, but only by +2.3 points per 48, but he needs only 0.5 extra FGAs and 3.1 extra FTAs per 48 to do it. Still, his MES48 of +0.25, while good, is much lower than Bynum's. But, ironically, its not Oden's offense, but rather his defense that is tripping him up. He allowed CO centers to shoot an ungodly 55.6% effective FG%, well above average. But such numbers are not unusual for rookies.
Marginal Rebounds per minute
This is merely a comparison of the number of rebounds a player grabs per 48 compared with the number he allows his counterpart opponents to grab.
Bynum:
Bynum, for the first few years of his career, looked pretty good in this category. But, last season his production fell way off. His numbers were okay, but he no longer works hard to keep his opponents off the boards. He grabbed 13.2 rebounds per minute while allowing his CO centers 13.4, for an awful MR48 of -0.2.
Oden:
This is where Oden is so impressive, and where he adds the most win value to Portland. Unfortunately for him, I think its also why he is popularly viewed as a bust. The public generally refuses to recognize the importance of rebounding in the game of basketball. I think (just a hunch) that people mistakenly assume rebounding is easy, or they assume that if a player is tall he should rebound, or they subsconsiouscly discount the value of rebounds because they assume that if the player who grabbed the rebound didn't get it someone else would have -- all mistaken impressions. Rebounding is and always has been a key to winning in basketball. Bill Russell proved that conclusively in the 1960s, and intensive research and analysis since then examining how wins are produced in the NBA has only confirmed it. And if it were so easy, why then aren't Oden's opponents outrebounding him? Anyway, the bottom line is that Oden is an exceptional rebounder, and he seems particularly good at limiting his CO centers rebound totals. Last season he outrebounded his opposition by a whopping +6.3 rebounds per 48 minutes.
Marginal Win Score per 48 minutes
As you can see by going to the 82games.com links provided above, neither player is particularly impressive in any of the other relevant Win Score statistical categories, but neither is particularly weak either in any one category. Thus, each player's MWS48 boils down as follows: Oden's overall advantage stems mostly from his rebounding, which is so overwhelming it trumps Bynum's scoring strength. Here are the overall numbers:
Bynum:
Bynum's Marginal Win Score average was a very good +1.20, and he created 4.3 wins and 1.7 losses for the Los Angeles Lakers, all good numbers, but all numbers that represent declines from his outstanding, albeit brief, 2007-08 campaign. The question is whether he can get back to that level. This season will be interesting in that regard.
Oden:
Oden's Marginal Win Score average was +2.19, outstanding for a rookie. He created 4.7 wins and only 0.7 losses for the Trailblazers in 2008-09. If he can merely improve his defense, and cut back on his fouling, his win production be incredible. As it stands, he had a better '08-'09 than did Bynum.
Bottom Line: Too Early to Call this one
The bottom line is its just as likely that Oden will be more successful than Bynum as it is that Bynum will be more successful than Oden. In fact, Oden already possesses tools you cannot easily instill in a big man (the ability to keep his covers off the glass), and he is hampered mostly by things that hamper all rookie bigs. His future seems quite bright. Bynum, on the other hand, seems to have a bright future as well. I worry, however, that he has decided he is a scoring machine who no longer needs to do the dirty work of rebounding or keeping the opposition off the glass. If that is the case, he may slide a bit, but I don't anticipate that happening. Either way, it is certainly too early to predict which center is better, and the FoxSports poll's results are way out of bounds.
I was finishing Charley Rosen's fairly interesting article about the state of NBA's big men (he actually had an unusually fair, sort of correct assessment of Bucks C Andrew Bogut... and I think his theory about why so many big men don't play like big men is dead on) when I noticed a FoxSports.com poll asking which big man had a brighter future, Lakers C Andrew Bynum or Blazers C Greg Oden. No surprise, Bynum won by a landslide.
But why has the basketball public turned so quickly against Greg Oden, a center many considered a high impact player coming out of college? Is it because of his knees? Is it because he has not met their image of a dominant big man? What is it?
As I have chronicled in the past, Oden actually had a very productive rookie season. In fact, he was much more productive overall than Lakers C Andrew Bynum. Lets compare their statistics using each player's Marginal Win Score calculated according to the statistics provided by 82games.com on Bynum's "Production by Position" page and Oden's similar page. Before we get to overall MWS48 stats, though, lets break the metric down into the component parts that each player respectively dominates. First Marginal Effective Scoring, Bynum's strength, and then Marginal Rebounding, Oden's strength.
Marginal "Effective Scoring" per 48 minutes
This is an important component part of the MWS48 win metric and, broken down, it can be calculated as follows: (Player's Points per 48 - FGAs per 48 - .5FTAs per 48) minus (Counterpart Opponent's Points per 48 - FGAs per 48 - .5FTAs per 48). It essentially asks whether the player uses scoring possessions more valuably than the players he guards. If he does, that -- not pure point production -- tends to help produce wins. Bynum clearly is, at the moment, better in this category than Greg Oden, but Oden is not bad. Here are the specifics:
Bynum:
He scores +7.8 points more than his COs, but he uses +3.7 more FGAs and +2.1 more FTAs to do so. Nevertheless, that adds up to a very good MES48 of +3.05.
Oden:
Oden outscores his COs as well, but only by +2.3 points per 48, but he needs only 0.5 extra FGAs and 3.1 extra FTAs per 48 to do it. Still, his MES48 of +0.25, while good, is much lower than Bynum's. But, ironically, its not Oden's offense, but rather his defense that is tripping him up. He allowed CO centers to shoot an ungodly 55.6% effective FG%, well above average. But such numbers are not unusual for rookies.
Marginal Rebounds per minute
This is merely a comparison of the number of rebounds a player grabs per 48 compared with the number he allows his counterpart opponents to grab.
Bynum:
Bynum, for the first few years of his career, looked pretty good in this category. But, last season his production fell way off. His numbers were okay, but he no longer works hard to keep his opponents off the boards. He grabbed 13.2 rebounds per minute while allowing his CO centers 13.4, for an awful MR48 of -0.2.
Oden:
This is where Oden is so impressive, and where he adds the most win value to Portland. Unfortunately for him, I think its also why he is popularly viewed as a bust. The public generally refuses to recognize the importance of rebounding in the game of basketball. I think (just a hunch) that people mistakenly assume rebounding is easy, or they assume that if a player is tall he should rebound, or they subsconsiouscly discount the value of rebounds because they assume that if the player who grabbed the rebound didn't get it someone else would have -- all mistaken impressions. Rebounding is and always has been a key to winning in basketball. Bill Russell proved that conclusively in the 1960s, and intensive research and analysis since then examining how wins are produced in the NBA has only confirmed it. And if it were so easy, why then aren't Oden's opponents outrebounding him? Anyway, the bottom line is that Oden is an exceptional rebounder, and he seems particularly good at limiting his CO centers rebound totals. Last season he outrebounded his opposition by a whopping +6.3 rebounds per 48 minutes.
Marginal Win Score per 48 minutes
As you can see by going to the 82games.com links provided above, neither player is particularly impressive in any of the other relevant Win Score statistical categories, but neither is particularly weak either in any one category. Thus, each player's MWS48 boils down as follows: Oden's overall advantage stems mostly from his rebounding, which is so overwhelming it trumps Bynum's scoring strength. Here are the overall numbers:
Bynum:
Bynum's Marginal Win Score average was a very good +1.20, and he created 4.3 wins and 1.7 losses for the Los Angeles Lakers, all good numbers, but all numbers that represent declines from his outstanding, albeit brief, 2007-08 campaign. The question is whether he can get back to that level. This season will be interesting in that regard.
Oden:
Oden's Marginal Win Score average was +2.19, outstanding for a rookie. He created 4.7 wins and only 0.7 losses for the Trailblazers in 2008-09. If he can merely improve his defense, and cut back on his fouling, his win production be incredible. As it stands, he had a better '08-'09 than did Bynum.
Bottom Line: Too Early to Call this one
The bottom line is its just as likely that Oden will be more successful than Bynum as it is that Bynum will be more successful than Oden. In fact, Oden already possesses tools you cannot easily instill in a big man (the ability to keep his covers off the glass), and he is hampered mostly by things that hamper all rookie bigs. His future seems quite bright. Bynum, on the other hand, seems to have a bright future as well. I worry, however, that he has decided he is a scoring machine who no longer needs to do the dirty work of rebounding or keeping the opposition off the glass. If that is the case, he may slide a bit, but I don't anticipate that happening. Either way, it is certainly too early to predict which center is better, and the FoxSports poll's results are way out of bounds.