2Cleva
09-28-2009, 01:24 PM
2009-10 Forecast: San Antonio Spurs
Do the proud but aging Spurs have one more great title run in them? Yes, but only if ...
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
2008-09 Recap
HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 54-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 54-28)
Offensive Efficiency: 106.2 (T-12th)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (6th)
Pace Factor: 90.4 (27th)
Highest PER: Tim Duncan (24.51)
When Spurs fans look back on the Duncan-era quasi-dynasty, they may very well see 2008-09 as a major transition season. It marked the first time the Spurs couldn't count on the dominance of Duncan and their two other stars, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, to rule the West. They required more help, but none was available.
Duncan struggled with knee problems and wasn't his usual dominating self for the latter half of the season, while Ginobili's troublesome ankles cost him 38 games and the entire playoffs. That left Parker to strain under all the heavy lifting, evidenced by his owning the league's fourth-highest usage rate.
Granted, there are five players on the court, so it wasn't just a three-man team. Unfortunately, San Antonio extracted shockingly little from its role players, as age and injuries sabotaged the production of previously reliable weapons. Bruce Bowen finally succumbed to Father Time at age 37, losing his starting job and retiring after the season, while the likes of Fabricio Oberto and Jacque Vaughn also vanished from the scene. Even the veterans who kept producing found themselves taxed -- 36-year-old Michael Finley, for instance, started 77 games and played 30 minutes a night because of the shortcomings of those around him.
As long as Duncan dominated, the Spurs could survive such issues. After lazing out to a 9-8 start, they went 30-9 over the next 39 games, and it appeared they'd finish with a patented San Antonio late-season charge.
But then Duncan's knee problems cropped up -- officially "tendinosis," which is a chronic ailment that may not go away. Duncan kept playing but wasn't up to his usual standard, so the result was an erratic 15-11 finish that dropped the Spurs to the third seed in the Western Conference. Were it not for a last-second 3 by Finley in the final regular-season game, they would have finished outside the conference's top four teams for the first time since drafting Duncan in 1997.
As it was, San Antonio won 54 games because its star trio, even diminished, could still carry them through on many nights. But a tired Spurs team succumbed in five easy games to Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. This was San Antonio's earliest playoff exit since the 2000 first round against Phoenix, when Duncan was hurt.
The Spurs' advanced age and conservative playing style did produce one interesting element, however: Statistically they were a basket of anomalies, one of the truly unique teams in NBA history.
Spurs games were notable for the absence of turnovers, free throws and offensive rebounds by either side, which is a big reason their contests seemed so dull much of the time. The Spurs were savvy and sound enough to keep opponents off the offensive glass and prevent the types of mistakes that lead to free throws, but they weren't athletic enough to do those things themselves either. Similarly, they knew how to take care of the ball offensively, but they didn't have the wheels to create steals on defense.
Rebounding: 2008-09's best defensive, worst offensive
Team Off. Reb Percentage Team Def. Reb Percentage
San Antonio 22.1 San Antonio 78.0
Toronto 24.0 Orlando 75.9
Orlando 24.0 Boston 75.6
New York 24.4 Houston 75.3
Sacramento 24.5 Minnesota 75.0
NBA average 26.7 League average 73.3
Turnovers: 2008-09's best at avoiding, worst at forcing
Team TO Rate Team Opp. TO Rate
San Antonio 12.9 San Antonio 12.8
Detroit 13.2 Detroit 13.1
Miami 13.4 Houston 13.3
Dallas 13.5 Minnesota 13.3
L.A. Lakers 13.8 Dallas 13.7
NBA average 15.3 League average 15.3
Free-throw rate: 2008-09's worst offensive, best defensive
Team FTA/FGA Team Opp. FTA/FGA
San Antonio .251 San Antonio .249
Indiana .267 Houston .257
New York .268 Toronto .258
Dallas .274 Atlanta .272
L.A. Clippers .275 Philadelphia .276
NBA average .306 NBA average .306
The result? The Spurs were the least likely team to produce a turnover at either end. San Antonio turned it over on just 12.9 percent of its possessions, the best rate in the league, but forced turnovers on just 12.8 percent of opponent possessions, the worst rate in the league. The average NBA game last season featured 29.3 turnovers; the average Spurs game had 23.4, or about one-fifth fewer.
The Spurs owned the same distinction at the free throw line. San Antonio was the league's worst team at getting to the stripe, earning just .251 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This was a key reason the Spurs finished only 12th in offensive efficiency, as they were seventh in field goal percentage and shot well on 3s but couldn't generate enough easy points from the stripe.
The primary driver behind that was the inability of the Spurs' secondary players to get to the line. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili accounted for nearly two-thirds of the team's free throw attempts. With the rest of the roster composed almost entirely of standstill shooters, they produced only seven foul shots a game between them; Parker nearly matched that total by himself.
Fortunately for San Antonio, they were as good at preventing free throw attempts as they were bad at creating them. San Antonio permitted only .249 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a league-leading total that explains why they finished sixth overall in defensive efficiency.
But it's the rebounding numbers that are most phenomenal. San Antonio was the best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 78.1 percent of opponents' missed shots, and yet the worst offensive rebounding team, collecting only 22.1 percent of their own missed shots. It doesn't seem possible that a team could rebound so well defensively and so horribly offensively, but in fact the two are very different skills. Additionally, San Antonio's playing style -- with Duncan having his back to the basket and four shooters spacing the floor -- has never been conducive to high offensive rebound totals.
Nonetheless, the Spurs' statistical anomalies from last season are truly amazing -- they were the league's best team in three different categories, and yet the league's worst team at the other end of the court in those same three facets of the game.
In the big picture, however, those bizarre stats served as a red flag showcasing all the areas where the Spurs changed from an "experienced" team into a just plain old one. The Spurs were too smart to beat themselves, but often they couldn't do much to beat the opponent either -- they just didn't have the athleticism to force turnovers, create second shots and get to the free throw line.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offseason Moves
With the freshness date on the Duncan era drawing closer, the Spurs ventured into unusual territory by going well over the luxury tax to try to squeeze a fifth ring from his prime. The Spurs will sit roughly $10 million over the tax line and have enough expiring contracts and overseas assets (especially Brazilian center Tiago Splitter) to spend much more if they so choose.
The flip side is that the Spurs could pull back and start dumping assets if this season's team doesn't work out the way they hope. For the moment, however, it's full steam ahead, with the only real dilemma being whether to extend Ginobili's contract beyond this season. He'll be an unrestricted free agent after the season, but extending him now would almost certainly make the Spurs a luxury tax team again next season -- something they may be reluctant to pursue on a repeat basis given their small market.
Traded Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas to Milwaukee for Richard Jefferson. This was a huge decision for the Spurs, as it not only makes them a luxury tax payer this season but also precludes the possibility of diving into the juicy 2010 free-agent market -- that will have to wait until 2011 at the earliest.
That said, the Spurs weren't going to stay in contention without a decisive move such as this one. They badly needed another player who could create his own shot, especially given the injury woes of Duncan and Ginobili last season, and Jefferson upgrades what had been their weakest position.
As an added plus, Jefferson quietly put together a very good season shooting corner 3s in Milwaukee, making 45.9 percent from that area according to NBA.com/hotspots. If he can keep knocking down that shot, it will help tremendously since he's likely to get a ton of attempts from there; from Bowen to Danny Ferry to Jaren Jackson to Sean Elliott, the Spurs have been spotting up their small forwards in the corner since a year or two after Columbus landed.
Let Drew Gooden go, signed Antonio McDyess to a three-year, $18 million deal. This was another major coup for San Antonio. The Spurs addressed the lack of a quality frontcourt player alongside Duncan by using their entire midlevel exception on McDyess. Because McDyess is almost exclusively a mid-range jump shooter, offensively he should collaborate very well with Duncan; additionally, he'll sharply improve that pathetic offensive rebounding rate from last season.
McDyess has said he wants to play only two more seasons, which makes the Spurs' offer essentially a two-year deal with a golden parachute at the end. But if it comes to that, in 2011-12 they can afford to pay him $6.7 million not to play because they should be well under the cap by then.
Drafted DeJuan Blair, Nando De Colo and Jack McClinton. Blair was the steal of the draft as an early second-round choice. He was one of the most dominant players in college basketball last season, but teams fretted over his troublesome knees and his lack of height. In that sense, he's very similar to another recent second-round steal, Leon Powe. Blair's knees may derail his career at some point, but he's likely to be a very productive reserve until that point.
McClinton was a late second-rounder whom the Spurs cut when he didn't want to play overseas, while De Colo, a 6-foot-5 wing from France with a modest game but a spectacular name, will play in Valencia, Spain, this season. (And if someone there doesn't invent a mixed drink called a Nando De Colo by the end of the season, I'll be very disappointed.)
Signed Theo Ratliff to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was strictly an insurance deal to get another true center into camp to join Duncan, as the Spurs found themselves unusually devoid of length in the frontcourt this summer. He'll be most helpful if the Spurs get their wish and meet L.A. in the conference finals, where he could prove useful matching up against the Lakers' Pau Gasol.
Let Ime Udoka go, signed Marcus Haislip to a one-year deal for the minimum. A "reimport" from Europe after failing as a first-round pick with the Bucks several years ago, Haislip's translated stats from Europe weren't very good and I'd be shocked if he can crack San Antonio's rotation.
Signed Keith Bogans to a one-year deal for the minimum. Bogans struggled last season and isn't likely to play a major role. However, because he defends and shoots 3s, he's a good fit in San Antonio's system and provides some insurance if Finley suddenly succumbs to age.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggest Strength: Perimeter Scoring
Sure, it's nice having Duncan, but they may not need him much with the weapons they've added on the perimeter. Parker came into his own as the team's go-to star last season, using his devastating quickness to blow apart defensive coverages and, increasingly, creating shots for teammates as well as for himself. Ginobili plays only 30 minutes a night but yields superstar production in that time, with his driving ability, outside shooting and passing talent all far beyond the capacity of the typical wing player.
Jefferson, meanwhile, provides a new element -- a big, strong wing man who can finish on the break and post up smaller opponents. He'll take a lot of the strain off Parker and Ginobili, and as such should be a massive upgrade from the small forward situation a year ago.
Two younger players also figure in the mix: George Hill and Roger Mason. Mason was overmatched as a starter last season, but established himself as one of the best long-range shooters in the league, especially in late-game situations. He'll be more at home coming off the bench this season. Hill, meanwhile, enjoyed an encouraging rookie season and figures to step up into a greater role as a combo guard off the bench.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggest Weakness: Health
It's hard to know what exactly the Spurs have this season until we see Ginobili and Duncan compete in a real game. Duncan was able to play through his knee injury last season, but it muted his performance considerably -- especially at the defensive end, where he lacked the explosion and quickness to dominate around the basket. Regardless of the knee, he's 7 feet tall and knows how to play, so he should still produce at a high level. But he's not going to put up superstar numbers if he isn't at full strength, and it appears his injury is a chronic, wear-and-tear malady resulting from the 12 NBA seasons he's played.
Ginobili is another question mark after missing the end of last season because of a stress fracture in his ankle -- on the heels of missing the start of the season with an injury in his other ankle. While he's expected to show up at camp fully recovered from the stress fracture, he's been increasingly injury-prone the past four years. Considering he's 32 and absorbs lots of contact on his forays to the rim, there's a concern he'll miss games more regularly going forward.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlook
The Spurs are the best organization in sports, hands down. If you prorate the strike year in 1998-99, last season was their 12th straight with at least 53 wins -- four of which produced championships. It's a ridiculous rate of success that still hasn't received the recognition that it deserves, especially given the modest spending by small-market San Antonio in that time frame.
That said, these next few years should present an even greater challenge to the Spurs' organizational excellence. It's real simple: They're fighting a wickedly strong tide. The Spurs are an old team, and their best players are the ones with the greatest age and injury concerns.
The injury worries with Duncan and Ginobili seriously crimp the hopes of rivaling the Lakers at the top of the West, even with the additions of Jefferson, McDyess and Blair in the offseason. While the newbies should take some of the load off Parker this season, San Antonio's championship hopes have always been predicated on having the league's best big man as a centerpiece and its best Sixth Man as a crutch -- now it's unclear if either of those propositions remain viable.
They'll win lots of games, because that's what they always do, and undoubtedly they'll make a few shrewd in-season moves to boost their chances further. But for all the thrashing in the water the Spurs did this summer, the riptide of age might pull them right back to the same spot it did a year ago.
Prediction: 53-29, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference
Do the proud but aging Spurs have one more great title run in them? Yes, but only if ...
By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
Archive
2008-09 Recap
HOLLINGER'S '08-09 STATS
W-L: 54-28 (Pythagorean W-L: 54-28)
Offensive Efficiency: 106.2 (T-12th)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.0 (6th)
Pace Factor: 90.4 (27th)
Highest PER: Tim Duncan (24.51)
When Spurs fans look back on the Duncan-era quasi-dynasty, they may very well see 2008-09 as a major transition season. It marked the first time the Spurs couldn't count on the dominance of Duncan and their two other stars, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, to rule the West. They required more help, but none was available.
Duncan struggled with knee problems and wasn't his usual dominating self for the latter half of the season, while Ginobili's troublesome ankles cost him 38 games and the entire playoffs. That left Parker to strain under all the heavy lifting, evidenced by his owning the league's fourth-highest usage rate.
Granted, there are five players on the court, so it wasn't just a three-man team. Unfortunately, San Antonio extracted shockingly little from its role players, as age and injuries sabotaged the production of previously reliable weapons. Bruce Bowen finally succumbed to Father Time at age 37, losing his starting job and retiring after the season, while the likes of Fabricio Oberto and Jacque Vaughn also vanished from the scene. Even the veterans who kept producing found themselves taxed -- 36-year-old Michael Finley, for instance, started 77 games and played 30 minutes a night because of the shortcomings of those around him.
As long as Duncan dominated, the Spurs could survive such issues. After lazing out to a 9-8 start, they went 30-9 over the next 39 games, and it appeared they'd finish with a patented San Antonio late-season charge.
But then Duncan's knee problems cropped up -- officially "tendinosis," which is a chronic ailment that may not go away. Duncan kept playing but wasn't up to his usual standard, so the result was an erratic 15-11 finish that dropped the Spurs to the third seed in the Western Conference. Were it not for a last-second 3 by Finley in the final regular-season game, they would have finished outside the conference's top four teams for the first time since drafting Duncan in 1997.
As it was, San Antonio won 54 games because its star trio, even diminished, could still carry them through on many nights. But a tired Spurs team succumbed in five easy games to Dallas in the first round of the playoffs. This was San Antonio's earliest playoff exit since the 2000 first round against Phoenix, when Duncan was hurt.
The Spurs' advanced age and conservative playing style did produce one interesting element, however: Statistically they were a basket of anomalies, one of the truly unique teams in NBA history.
Spurs games were notable for the absence of turnovers, free throws and offensive rebounds by either side, which is a big reason their contests seemed so dull much of the time. The Spurs were savvy and sound enough to keep opponents off the offensive glass and prevent the types of mistakes that lead to free throws, but they weren't athletic enough to do those things themselves either. Similarly, they knew how to take care of the ball offensively, but they didn't have the wheels to create steals on defense.
Rebounding: 2008-09's best defensive, worst offensive
Team Off. Reb Percentage Team Def. Reb Percentage
San Antonio 22.1 San Antonio 78.0
Toronto 24.0 Orlando 75.9
Orlando 24.0 Boston 75.6
New York 24.4 Houston 75.3
Sacramento 24.5 Minnesota 75.0
NBA average 26.7 League average 73.3
Turnovers: 2008-09's best at avoiding, worst at forcing
Team TO Rate Team Opp. TO Rate
San Antonio 12.9 San Antonio 12.8
Detroit 13.2 Detroit 13.1
Miami 13.4 Houston 13.3
Dallas 13.5 Minnesota 13.3
L.A. Lakers 13.8 Dallas 13.7
NBA average 15.3 League average 15.3
Free-throw rate: 2008-09's worst offensive, best defensive
Team FTA/FGA Team Opp. FTA/FGA
San Antonio .251 San Antonio .249
Indiana .267 Houston .257
New York .268 Toronto .258
Dallas .274 Atlanta .272
L.A. Clippers .275 Philadelphia .276
NBA average .306 NBA average .306
The result? The Spurs were the least likely team to produce a turnover at either end. San Antonio turned it over on just 12.9 percent of its possessions, the best rate in the league, but forced turnovers on just 12.8 percent of opponent possessions, the worst rate in the league. The average NBA game last season featured 29.3 turnovers; the average Spurs game had 23.4, or about one-fifth fewer.
The Spurs owned the same distinction at the free throw line. San Antonio was the league's worst team at getting to the stripe, earning just .251 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. This was a key reason the Spurs finished only 12th in offensive efficiency, as they were seventh in field goal percentage and shot well on 3s but couldn't generate enough easy points from the stripe.
The primary driver behind that was the inability of the Spurs' secondary players to get to the line. Duncan, Parker and Ginobili accounted for nearly two-thirds of the team's free throw attempts. With the rest of the roster composed almost entirely of standstill shooters, they produced only seven foul shots a game between them; Parker nearly matched that total by himself.
Fortunately for San Antonio, they were as good at preventing free throw attempts as they were bad at creating them. San Antonio permitted only .249 free throw attempts per field goal attempt, a league-leading total that explains why they finished sixth overall in defensive efficiency.
But it's the rebounding numbers that are most phenomenal. San Antonio was the best defensive rebounding team, pulling down 78.1 percent of opponents' missed shots, and yet the worst offensive rebounding team, collecting only 22.1 percent of their own missed shots. It doesn't seem possible that a team could rebound so well defensively and so horribly offensively, but in fact the two are very different skills. Additionally, San Antonio's playing style -- with Duncan having his back to the basket and four shooters spacing the floor -- has never been conducive to high offensive rebound totals.
Nonetheless, the Spurs' statistical anomalies from last season are truly amazing -- they were the league's best team in three different categories, and yet the league's worst team at the other end of the court in those same three facets of the game.
In the big picture, however, those bizarre stats served as a red flag showcasing all the areas where the Spurs changed from an "experienced" team into a just plain old one. The Spurs were too smart to beat themselves, but often they couldn't do much to beat the opponent either -- they just didn't have the athleticism to force turnovers, create second shots and get to the free throw line.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offseason Moves
With the freshness date on the Duncan era drawing closer, the Spurs ventured into unusual territory by going well over the luxury tax to try to squeeze a fifth ring from his prime. The Spurs will sit roughly $10 million over the tax line and have enough expiring contracts and overseas assets (especially Brazilian center Tiago Splitter) to spend much more if they so choose.
The flip side is that the Spurs could pull back and start dumping assets if this season's team doesn't work out the way they hope. For the moment, however, it's full steam ahead, with the only real dilemma being whether to extend Ginobili's contract beyond this season. He'll be an unrestricted free agent after the season, but extending him now would almost certainly make the Spurs a luxury tax team again next season -- something they may be reluctant to pursue on a repeat basis given their small market.
Traded Bruce Bowen, Fabricio Oberto and Kurt Thomas to Milwaukee for Richard Jefferson. This was a huge decision for the Spurs, as it not only makes them a luxury tax payer this season but also precludes the possibility of diving into the juicy 2010 free-agent market -- that will have to wait until 2011 at the earliest.
That said, the Spurs weren't going to stay in contention without a decisive move such as this one. They badly needed another player who could create his own shot, especially given the injury woes of Duncan and Ginobili last season, and Jefferson upgrades what had been their weakest position.
As an added plus, Jefferson quietly put together a very good season shooting corner 3s in Milwaukee, making 45.9 percent from that area according to NBA.com/hotspots. If he can keep knocking down that shot, it will help tremendously since he's likely to get a ton of attempts from there; from Bowen to Danny Ferry to Jaren Jackson to Sean Elliott, the Spurs have been spotting up their small forwards in the corner since a year or two after Columbus landed.
Let Drew Gooden go, signed Antonio McDyess to a three-year, $18 million deal. This was another major coup for San Antonio. The Spurs addressed the lack of a quality frontcourt player alongside Duncan by using their entire midlevel exception on McDyess. Because McDyess is almost exclusively a mid-range jump shooter, offensively he should collaborate very well with Duncan; additionally, he'll sharply improve that pathetic offensive rebounding rate from last season.
McDyess has said he wants to play only two more seasons, which makes the Spurs' offer essentially a two-year deal with a golden parachute at the end. But if it comes to that, in 2011-12 they can afford to pay him $6.7 million not to play because they should be well under the cap by then.
Drafted DeJuan Blair, Nando De Colo and Jack McClinton. Blair was the steal of the draft as an early second-round choice. He was one of the most dominant players in college basketball last season, but teams fretted over his troublesome knees and his lack of height. In that sense, he's very similar to another recent second-round steal, Leon Powe. Blair's knees may derail his career at some point, but he's likely to be a very productive reserve until that point.
McClinton was a late second-rounder whom the Spurs cut when he didn't want to play overseas, while De Colo, a 6-foot-5 wing from France with a modest game but a spectacular name, will play in Valencia, Spain, this season. (And if someone there doesn't invent a mixed drink called a Nando De Colo by the end of the season, I'll be very disappointed.)
Signed Theo Ratliff to a one-year deal for the minimum. This was strictly an insurance deal to get another true center into camp to join Duncan, as the Spurs found themselves unusually devoid of length in the frontcourt this summer. He'll be most helpful if the Spurs get their wish and meet L.A. in the conference finals, where he could prove useful matching up against the Lakers' Pau Gasol.
Let Ime Udoka go, signed Marcus Haislip to a one-year deal for the minimum. A "reimport" from Europe after failing as a first-round pick with the Bucks several years ago, Haislip's translated stats from Europe weren't very good and I'd be shocked if he can crack San Antonio's rotation.
Signed Keith Bogans to a one-year deal for the minimum. Bogans struggled last season and isn't likely to play a major role. However, because he defends and shoots 3s, he's a good fit in San Antonio's system and provides some insurance if Finley suddenly succumbs to age.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggest Strength: Perimeter Scoring
Sure, it's nice having Duncan, but they may not need him much with the weapons they've added on the perimeter. Parker came into his own as the team's go-to star last season, using his devastating quickness to blow apart defensive coverages and, increasingly, creating shots for teammates as well as for himself. Ginobili plays only 30 minutes a night but yields superstar production in that time, with his driving ability, outside shooting and passing talent all far beyond the capacity of the typical wing player.
Jefferson, meanwhile, provides a new element -- a big, strong wing man who can finish on the break and post up smaller opponents. He'll take a lot of the strain off Parker and Ginobili, and as such should be a massive upgrade from the small forward situation a year ago.
Two younger players also figure in the mix: George Hill and Roger Mason. Mason was overmatched as a starter last season, but established himself as one of the best long-range shooters in the league, especially in late-game situations. He'll be more at home coming off the bench this season. Hill, meanwhile, enjoyed an encouraging rookie season and figures to step up into a greater role as a combo guard off the bench.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Biggest Weakness: Health
It's hard to know what exactly the Spurs have this season until we see Ginobili and Duncan compete in a real game. Duncan was able to play through his knee injury last season, but it muted his performance considerably -- especially at the defensive end, where he lacked the explosion and quickness to dominate around the basket. Regardless of the knee, he's 7 feet tall and knows how to play, so he should still produce at a high level. But he's not going to put up superstar numbers if he isn't at full strength, and it appears his injury is a chronic, wear-and-tear malady resulting from the 12 NBA seasons he's played.
Ginobili is another question mark after missing the end of last season because of a stress fracture in his ankle -- on the heels of missing the start of the season with an injury in his other ankle. While he's expected to show up at camp fully recovered from the stress fracture, he's been increasingly injury-prone the past four years. Considering he's 32 and absorbs lots of contact on his forays to the rim, there's a concern he'll miss games more regularly going forward.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Outlook
The Spurs are the best organization in sports, hands down. If you prorate the strike year in 1998-99, last season was their 12th straight with at least 53 wins -- four of which produced championships. It's a ridiculous rate of success that still hasn't received the recognition that it deserves, especially given the modest spending by small-market San Antonio in that time frame.
That said, these next few years should present an even greater challenge to the Spurs' organizational excellence. It's real simple: They're fighting a wickedly strong tide. The Spurs are an old team, and their best players are the ones with the greatest age and injury concerns.
The injury worries with Duncan and Ginobili seriously crimp the hopes of rivaling the Lakers at the top of the West, even with the additions of Jefferson, McDyess and Blair in the offseason. While the newbies should take some of the load off Parker this season, San Antonio's championship hopes have always been predicated on having the league's best big man as a centerpiece and its best Sixth Man as a crutch -- now it's unclear if either of those propositions remain viable.
They'll win lots of games, because that's what they always do, and undoubtedly they'll make a few shrewd in-season moves to boost their chances further. But for all the thrashing in the water the Spurs did this summer, the riptide of age might pull them right back to the same spot it did a year ago.
Prediction: 53-29, 1st in Southwest Division, 3rd in Western Conference