2Cleva
10-08-2009, 07:46 AM
By Request. I believe this should give me carte blanche on this board. :lol
DeJuan Blair
2009-10 outlook: The steal of the draft, Blair put up lottery-caliber numbers for Pitt but scared off teams in the first round with his knee problems. His knees may give way at some point, but in the meantime he'll provide an extremely productive big man because of his ability to rebound and score around the basket. He compares with Leon Powe as a player whom teams shunned because of his knees but produced at a high level as a pro, except that Blair's college performance was far superior to Powe's.
San Antonio benefited from other teams' cold feet by swiping Blair in the second round and can plug him into the frontcourt rotation immediately behind Tim Duncan. He'll probably play only 10-15 minutes a game, but he'll have an impact while he's out there.
Tim Duncan
2008-09 season: This season represented a turning point for Duncan. After years of mind-numbingly consistent production, his numbers turned south late in the year thanks to a sore knee that limited his mobility. Look at his full-season numbers and you'd think everything was fine, but his scoring average plummeted after March 1 and his blocked shots nearly halved.
He's 33 and has played 33,000 career minutes, so we knew this day might come at some point. And the injury didn't render him completely ineffective -- he's still 7 feet tall and knows how to play. He just couldn't dominate around the basket as he did in the past.
Look at the full-year stats and it's the typical "Groundhog Day" performance for Duncan -- second among centers in PER and usage rate; fifth in usage rate, pure point rating and defensive rebound rate; and all with the fourth-lowest rate of fouls at his position. The only stat the knees impacted was Duncan's proportion of jumpers -- 17 percent of his attempts were long 2s, nearly double his proportion from two years ago.
Scouting report: Duncan is one of the most complete and fundamentally sound big men to ever play the game. He can score in the post with either a face-up bank shot or a jump hook off a right-handed drive into the lane, and he has become very adept at passing out of double-teams. Duncan has 18-foot range on his jumper but it tends to come off flat; he struggles at the free throw line for the same reason.
In addition to standing 7-foot, Duncan has long arms and good timing, so he's able to block or alter shots with a little hop at the last second instead of winding up and taking himself out of the play. For this reason, few bigs are better at protecting the basket while still preventing a rebound opportunity for the opponents. If you're gong to quibble, he has some trouble getting out to shooting big men, but overall he's one of the game's elite defensive players.
2009-10 outlook: The big question is how much the knees will limit Duncan, because he was a lesser player by the end of last season. The Spurs will take a kid-gloves approach, limiting his offseason work and most likely limiting his minutes during the season, too.
Duncan possesses so many skills that even if the knee trouble doesn't let up, he'll still make the All-Star team and average on the order of 18 and 10. However, the minutes will cap his output, as the always minutes-conscious Spurs would likely limit his outings to 30 minutes a night. If the knee turns out better, perhaps those numbers improve to 20 and 11, but I doubt it will make the Spurs any more anxious to extend his playing time until the postseason.
Michael Finley
2008-09 season: Finley didn't make mistakes, but too often he just didn't do anything. He averaged just more than 13 points per 40 minutes and only two small forwards got to the free throw line with less frequency -- he started 76 games but took only 62 foul shots. He rarely ventured in the paint, taking only 12.4 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area, and he offered little value on the boards. Those negatives offset the value of his 41.1 percent mark on 3s -- a new career high -- and another miniscule turnover rate.
Although he turned 36 last year, Finley remains among the game's most durable players, logging more than 28 minutes a game last year and never showing any fatigue. In fact, he played 81 games and has missed only six in four seasons with the Spurs.
Scouting report: Finley gets great elevation on his jumper and can shoot it very accurately in catch-and-shoot situations, which is how he scores most of his points. He can also shoot off the dribble but doesn't dribble well and lacks the zip in his step to beat defenders on the move. He'll move the ball immediately if he's not open, part of his late-career genesis as an extremely low-mistake player who rarely goes beyond his boundaries.
Finley remains a decent defender with good size and leaping ability that allows him to play a half-step off shooters and still challenge their shots. However, he struggles to chase opponents through screens and quicker wings can beat him off the bounce. Again, he's a low-mistake player, ranking third in fewest fouls per minute (see Tayshaun Prince comment).
2009-10 outlook: Finley will likely come off the bench given the Spurs' offseason additions and play much less than he did a year ago. The shift makes sense, as he couldn't deliver what was asked of him as a full-time starter. Look for Finley to play 15-20 minutes a game this year, but his per-minute output shouldn't change much. He'll still shoot 40 percent on 3s and never turn the ball over, making him useful in that role. If it doesn't work out, Finley has an expiring deal worth $2.5 million that the Spurs might look to cash in at the trade deadline.
Manu Ginobili
2008-09 season: Ginobili dealt his usual brilliant play when healthy, but those moments were increasingly rare last season. He missed 41 games with an ankle injury early and a stress fracture late, and in between suddenly lost his 3-point touch, hitting only 33 percent.
By other metrics, however, he was as effective as ever, ranking fourth among shooting guards in PER and first among bench players. Ginobili's now-familiar foul-drawing antics earned him the seventh-highest free throw rate among shooting guards and he converted 88.4 percent from the stripe. Despite the wayward 3-point stroke, he ranked third at his position in true shooting percentage. He proved beastly on the glass, too -- his defensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate both finished second among shooting guards. His nose for the ball seemed as active as ever, with 2.17 steals per 40 minutes.
Finally, Ginobili set a new career mark by hitting 65.5 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area. He'd hovered in the mid-50s the past several years and his mark last season was nearly the best among perimeter players (see Andre Igoudala comment). For a guy who rarely showed up 100 percent healthy, it was a heck of a year.
Scouting report: A crafty left-hander who specializes in sudden, unexpected changes of direction, Ginobili's circuitous drives to the basket constantly get him to the free throw line. He ably creates contact and shot-fakes defenders into fouls, something he embellishes with well-documented flair. His drives also allow him to create shots for the Spurs' spot-up shooters, though he called his own number more often last season.
Ginobili has evolved into a very good pull-up 3-point shooter off the dribble -- he shoots a set shot rather than jumping, but if his defender goes behind the screen on a pick-and-roll, he'll get it off. His stroke came off from distance last season but he nailed 38.6 percent over the past five years, so opponents need to respect his long-range threat.
Defensively, Ginobili has fantastic anticipation off the ball and plucks steals, and he rebounds as well as any guard in the league. He's not a particularly good on-ball defender, though, and big wings overpower him on the blocks. Fortunately, the Spurs rarely ask a lot from him on this end to conserve his energy for offense.
2009-10 outlook: Ginobili turned 32 in July, and his collision-heavy playing style doesn't offer a great prescription for longevity. Given how well he played in his rare moments in the lineup last year, the more immediate worry for San Antonio isn't that he'll decline, but that he simply won't be on the court enough to make a big impact. Even when he's healthy, the Spurs play him only around 28 minutes a game to reduce the wear and tear.
Presuming he can make it on the court for 65 games or so, Ginobili has a great shot at reclaiming the Sixth Man award. Even if his numbers diminish a bit due to age, he's likely to lead all reserves in PER, and few players can score better than a point every two minutes while shooting as efficiently as he does.
Of note, however, is the fact Ginobili has an expiring deal worth $10.7 million and will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. The Spurs can sign him to an extension before the season starts, but they probably want to see how he holds up physically before committing.
Marcus Haislip
2009-10 outlook: A "re-import" from Europe and a former first-round pick of the Milwaukee Bucks who flamed out badly, Haislip signed with San Antonio hoping to re-establish himself as an energy player off the Spurs' bench. He's always been a tweener and isn't a great outside shooter, but the hope is that he can make up for it with defense, effort plays and transition finishes. Based on his translated European stats, I'm highly skeptical he can pull it off.
George Hill
2008-09 season: He's not quite a point guard and not quite a shooting guard, but Hill is a basketball player of some kind. His rookie campaign was strong enough that the Spurs will use him in some capacity much more in future seasons.
Hill is athletic and long-armed, which translated into two very strong stats -- he placed seventh among point guards in rebound rate and seventh in blocked shots. However, he was far too aggressive and committed a foul every 8.5 minutes; only two point guards fouled more often.
Right now his shooting tops the list of concerns. Hill shot 27.8 percent on long 2s, one of the worst performances in the league, and 29.2 percent on shots away from the basket. He managed a bit better on 3s (32.9 percent), shot well in the basket area and drew a high rate of fouls, but without a consistent J, he'll always have trouble scoring.
Scouting report: Hill stands 6-foot-3 with long arms and defends well at either backcourt spot. His height may prevent him from becoming a true wing stopper, but he could prove suffocating as a full-time point guard. He's still learning what he can do against pros, as evidenced by his hyper aggressiveness in pressuring the ball during his rookie year, but the talent is undeniable.
However, he can't showcase his defense without a defined offensive role. Hill can finish at the basket because of his length, but he doesn't shoot consistently or run the point with great skill -- his pure point rating ranked 60th out of 69 point guards. He needs to be able to execute one or the other to serve as more than an intriguing role player.
2009-10 outlook: While Hill will likely play the majority of backup point guard minutes behind Tony Parker, on numerous occasions he'll spot up off the ball while Manu Ginobili plays "point forward." Rookie guards with high turnover rates often make tremendous progress in their second season, and with the glimpses of ability Hill provided, he may join those who take a major step forward. That probably won't change his playing time outlook much for 2009-10 given the star-studded San Antonio backcourt, but this year may well determine the trajectory of what comes afterward.
Richard Jefferson
2008-09 season: Jefferson's shooting percentage won't elicit any raves, but he drew so many fouls that he scored effectively and the 82 games he played were a notable exception on a Bucks squad that dropped like flies all around him. The impact of those injuries is evident in Jefferson's splits -- he switched from averaging 12 shots a game in December to 18 in March, and his second-half scoring average increased by more than five points.
For the year Jefferson ranked eighth among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and he finished in the top third of small forwards in true shooting percentage, turnover ratio and PER. He endured his third straight disappointing season as a rebounder and at this point it's safe to say the board numbers he put up in New Jersey are a thing of the past. Otherwise, his value held up quite well.
Jefferson hadn't shot the 3-pointer well until last season, when he shot it more than ever and marked a career-best 39.7 percent. Of particular significance was his 45.8 percent mark on corner 3s, the sixth-best mark in the league among players with at least 100 attempts (ironically the man he was traded for, Bobby Simmons of New Jersey, was fifth). We'll talk a little more about the importance of those corner 3s below.
Scouting report: Jefferson is an athletic wing who likes to attack the basket, especially going to his right from the right side, and because of his size and explosion near the rim, he's very effective at drawing fouls. He neither dribbles cleverly nor sees the floor well, mostly relying on straight, hard drives rather than any deception. Jefferson also excels at running the break along the right wing as a finisher and has become a more consistent outside shooter in recent years.
Jefferson focused more on defense in Milwaukee after taking the year off with the Nets a year earlier, though he'll bail on his rebounding responsibilities to leak out on the break. He does a good job one-on-one and opponents rarely try to post him up or isolate against him, but he's not as enthusiastic about chasing opponents through screens or helping on the weak side.
2009-10 outlook: The Bucks unloaded the $32 million left on Jefferson's deal by trading him to San Antonio, where he'll provide a dose of energy to a weary veteran squad that leaned too heavily on its three stars. Of note is his newfound ability to hit corner 3s, because historically the Spurs spot up their small forwards in the corner more than any team in the league. If his numbers from a year ago hold up, he can be a real weapon from that spot, punishing opponents who focus in too much on the Spurs' star trio.
He'll start at small forward and is highly unlikely to achieve the same per-game averages because he'll consume fewer shots. But he hasn't missed a game in two years and should provide an effective minutes sponge for a team that badly needs one. Meanwhile, he'll boost his shooting percentage back into the high 40s thanks to a better quality of looks.
Ian Mahinmi
2008-09 season: This was supposed to be Mahinmi's big crack at a spot in the rotation, but an ankle problem sidelined him nearly the entire year so the opportunity went by the wayside. He played only 23 minutes for the parent club and one game for Austin in the D-League.
Scouting report: An energy big man drafted as a project out of France, Mahinmi doesn't have a lot of game experience but put up very strong numbers in the D-League two years ago, providing an encouraging glimpse of his potential. He'll be 23 the opening week of the season and at 6-foot-11, 230 pounds with good athleticism, there's hope he can become a rotation player.
2009-10 outlook: Mahinmi will compete for minutes in a much more crowded frontcourt than a year ago, but Gregg Popovich shuttles in so many big guys in most games that Mahinmi is bound to get an opportunity sooner or later. However, he'll first need to prove the ankle is healthy and shake off the cobwebs.
Roger Mason
2008-09 season: The free-agent pickup established himself as one of the league's top outside shooters, especially in late game situations. Mason shot 42.9 percent on 3s while taking nearly half his shots from out there and hit 89 percent from the line, both career highs, while hitting several game-winning shots in his first season in Texas.
Despite those glaring positives, he really wasn't that good. Even with all the 3s, his true shooting percentage was muted, because he virtually never got to the basket. Long 2s and 3s comprised 82.9 percent of his shots; among players with at least 500 shot attempts, only Eddie House, Daequan Cook and Mike Bibby wandered into the paint less often. Throw in average to below-average numbers in the other categories, and even a 30-minute role stretched him despite his excellent shooting. In the end, 40 shooting guards finished with a better PER than Mason did, and his defense was subpar, as well.
Scouting report: In addition to shooting very well off the catch, Mason also can hit off the dribble going left or right and knows how to use screens to free his jump shot. He's a decent dribbler who can move to the point (and often did last season) but has limited quickness so he rarely penetrates inside. When he does, he experiences trouble finishing due to a lack of explosion.
Mason is a mediocre defender, with decent strength and intensity but somewhat slow feet and limited jumping ability. He's a conservative defender who posted the third-lowest rate of steals among shooting guards and won't beat himself, but he's nobody's idea of a wing stopper and small, quick guys blaze past him when he moves to the point.
2009-10 outlook: Mason will probably start games again but is highly unlikely to finish them with Manu Ginobili back in the mix and Richard Jefferson's arrival. George Hill will likely claim some of the minutes Mason enjoyed as a backup point guard, too, leaving Mason with a 20-minute role as a wing reserve and zone-buster. That's more in keeping with his skill level, and if he shoots like he did last year, he'll solidify that bench slot. But if he's playing 30 minutes a night again, it's a bad sign because he isn't that caliber of player.
Antonio McDyess
2008-09 season: McDyess made one of the most egregious miscalculations in recent history, taking a severe pay cut to return to a Detroit team that failed to win a playoff game instead of joining the Nuggets for their run to the Western Conference Finals. The one month layoff seemed to set him back at first, but he rallied with a vengeance late in the season. McDyess averaged a double-double with better than 50 percent shooting from Feb. 1 on, the second time in three years he's put up absolutely monstrous numbers in the second half after being mediocre at best in the first.
McDyess rarely shoots at the basket anymore unless it's a putback; all he does now is face up from the top of the key or the left elbow. He led the league, in fact, in the proportion of his shots from the left side (see Richard Hamilton comment). Of his 2-point shot attempts, 74.1 percent were away from the basket and 61.9 percent were long 2s; he led the league in both categories among players with at least 100 shot attempts (see chart). His rate of long 2s was particularly amazing, as only a handful of players took half as many of their shots from that range.
The good news is that he drained all those Js. McDyess' 47.4 percent mark on long 2s rated fourth in the NBA and his 51 percent mark on straight-on attempts led the league. And because he was just catching and shooting, he rarely turned the ball over, ranking second among centers in turnover rate.
Finally, he crashed the boards despite setting up outside. He set a career high in rebound rate, ranking ninth among centers.
Scouting report: He was 34 years old last year, but it was hard to find anything wrong with McDyess' game. Although he suffered knee problems earlier in his career, he's projected a picture of health the last several years and offset a loss in explosiveness by refining his jump shot and defensive fundamentals.
McDyess loves to set up for pick-and-pop plays at the high post or left elbow, and he possesses range out to 18 feet. He can pass from up there, as well, and will post up on the left block against smaller defenders -- to shoot a face-up jumper. Even though he sets up out high, he crashes the boards and remains fairly athletic for his size, in addition to having a solid build.
McDyess can play both frontcourt positions but center is a challenge for him, as his play with the Pistons demonstrated to everyone's satisfaction last season. At 6-foot-9 he gives up too many inches to big centers and isn't enough of an intimidator to affect opponent shots at the rim. The Pistons' overall malaise last season probably didn't help his enthusiasm for the job, but Detroit gave up 5.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. He performs better against power forwards, especially traditional post-up 4s. The ones who shoot 3s challenge his mobility and pull him away from his preferred perch under the rim.
2009-10 outlook: McDyess signed with San Antonio on a three-year deal for the midlevel with a partially guaranteed third season. Since McDyess has said he wants to play only two more years, this effectively offers him a golden parachute in year 3.
He'll start at power forward alongside Tim Duncan, (though he'll be listed at center in order not to hurt Tim's feelings), and while he'll have trouble matching last year's rebounding numbers, he'll likely regain some of his enthusiasm for defending and shot-blocking in a more competitive environment. His knack for high-post shooting should make him a perfect fit with Duncan offensively. Lastly, expect him to start slowly since much like his new team, he has a longstanding track record of rapidly gaining steam after the All-Star break.
Tony Parker
2008-09 season: With Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan both hurting and nobody else on the roster capable of creating their own shot, the Spurs basically made Parker the entire offense in the second half of the season. He responded by averaging 24.5 points, 7.3 assists and shooting 55 percent the final two months of the season, but the strain eventually took its toll -- he visibly ran out of gas in the playoffs against Dallas from the strain of having to do it all himself.
Parker led all point guards in usage rate and was fourth in the league overall, and he created quality shots, too. His 50.6 percent shooting led all point guards, he was 15th in true shooting percentage despite seldom taking 3s, and he generated the ninth-lowest turnover ratio among point guards.
For a little guard, his ability to get in the paint stands unrivaled. More than half his shot attempts came in the immediate basket area and he converted 59.7 percent. He also shot long 2s better than ever, making 45.5 percent of them, but he continues to be a reluctant long-range shooter. Parker launched only 65 3-pointers on the season and made just 19; he's offered up fewer than one a game each of the past four seasons.
Scouting report: Parker annoys purists because he drives to score rather than to pass, but he's a one-man layup machine with outstanding quickness going to either side and a real knack for finishing at the basket. Parker rarely draws fouls despite constantly going to the rim, but he has an array of floaters, flips and head fakes that he uses to keep defenders off balance and finish at the basket. He's a great finisher in transition, too, though he's almost always coming in by himself while his older teammates huff and puff behind him.
Parker turns the ball over remarkably little for somebody who goes to the basket so much, but as a passer he sticks mostly to the simple stuff -- kickouts when he's covered, swings around the perimeter and the like. You'll rarely see him zip a dazzler between defenders for an easy bucket. Defenders used to go behind the screen when he ran the pick-and-roll and dare him to shoot, but he's become a good midrange shooter -- especially to his left. Now they have to respect him there, opening even more driving lanes.
Parker is an above-average defender -- though he doesn't play with great intensity, he's quick and is bigger than he looks. He's a low-risk defender who rarely gambles and doesn't pilfer many steals. However, his effort slackened last season when he had to carry so much weight at the offensive end.
2009-10 outlook: The Spurs won't repeat the Tony-on-five offense they ran at the end of last season, and Parker is unlikely to shoot as well on long 2s even if they do. Add it all up and it's improbable he'll match last year's output. Additionally, he's a quick guard entering his later 20s, which is a danger zone for this type of player.
Sum it up and it's more realistic to expect his 2007-08 output -- roughly 19 points and six assists with 50 percent shooting and a PER right around 20. That still makes him one of the league's top point guards and probably puts him on the All-Star team, but probability dictates that last year will prove the high-water mark for his individual stats.
DeJuan Blair
2009-10 outlook: The steal of the draft, Blair put up lottery-caliber numbers for Pitt but scared off teams in the first round with his knee problems. His knees may give way at some point, but in the meantime he'll provide an extremely productive big man because of his ability to rebound and score around the basket. He compares with Leon Powe as a player whom teams shunned because of his knees but produced at a high level as a pro, except that Blair's college performance was far superior to Powe's.
San Antonio benefited from other teams' cold feet by swiping Blair in the second round and can plug him into the frontcourt rotation immediately behind Tim Duncan. He'll probably play only 10-15 minutes a game, but he'll have an impact while he's out there.
Tim Duncan
2008-09 season: This season represented a turning point for Duncan. After years of mind-numbingly consistent production, his numbers turned south late in the year thanks to a sore knee that limited his mobility. Look at his full-season numbers and you'd think everything was fine, but his scoring average plummeted after March 1 and his blocked shots nearly halved.
He's 33 and has played 33,000 career minutes, so we knew this day might come at some point. And the injury didn't render him completely ineffective -- he's still 7 feet tall and knows how to play. He just couldn't dominate around the basket as he did in the past.
Look at the full-year stats and it's the typical "Groundhog Day" performance for Duncan -- second among centers in PER and usage rate; fifth in usage rate, pure point rating and defensive rebound rate; and all with the fourth-lowest rate of fouls at his position. The only stat the knees impacted was Duncan's proportion of jumpers -- 17 percent of his attempts were long 2s, nearly double his proportion from two years ago.
Scouting report: Duncan is one of the most complete and fundamentally sound big men to ever play the game. He can score in the post with either a face-up bank shot or a jump hook off a right-handed drive into the lane, and he has become very adept at passing out of double-teams. Duncan has 18-foot range on his jumper but it tends to come off flat; he struggles at the free throw line for the same reason.
In addition to standing 7-foot, Duncan has long arms and good timing, so he's able to block or alter shots with a little hop at the last second instead of winding up and taking himself out of the play. For this reason, few bigs are better at protecting the basket while still preventing a rebound opportunity for the opponents. If you're gong to quibble, he has some trouble getting out to shooting big men, but overall he's one of the game's elite defensive players.
2009-10 outlook: The big question is how much the knees will limit Duncan, because he was a lesser player by the end of last season. The Spurs will take a kid-gloves approach, limiting his offseason work and most likely limiting his minutes during the season, too.
Duncan possesses so many skills that even if the knee trouble doesn't let up, he'll still make the All-Star team and average on the order of 18 and 10. However, the minutes will cap his output, as the always minutes-conscious Spurs would likely limit his outings to 30 minutes a night. If the knee turns out better, perhaps those numbers improve to 20 and 11, but I doubt it will make the Spurs any more anxious to extend his playing time until the postseason.
Michael Finley
2008-09 season: Finley didn't make mistakes, but too often he just didn't do anything. He averaged just more than 13 points per 40 minutes and only two small forwards got to the free throw line with less frequency -- he started 76 games but took only 62 foul shots. He rarely ventured in the paint, taking only 12.4 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area, and he offered little value on the boards. Those negatives offset the value of his 41.1 percent mark on 3s -- a new career high -- and another miniscule turnover rate.
Although he turned 36 last year, Finley remains among the game's most durable players, logging more than 28 minutes a game last year and never showing any fatigue. In fact, he played 81 games and has missed only six in four seasons with the Spurs.
Scouting report: Finley gets great elevation on his jumper and can shoot it very accurately in catch-and-shoot situations, which is how he scores most of his points. He can also shoot off the dribble but doesn't dribble well and lacks the zip in his step to beat defenders on the move. He'll move the ball immediately if he's not open, part of his late-career genesis as an extremely low-mistake player who rarely goes beyond his boundaries.
Finley remains a decent defender with good size and leaping ability that allows him to play a half-step off shooters and still challenge their shots. However, he struggles to chase opponents through screens and quicker wings can beat him off the bounce. Again, he's a low-mistake player, ranking third in fewest fouls per minute (see Tayshaun Prince comment).
2009-10 outlook: Finley will likely come off the bench given the Spurs' offseason additions and play much less than he did a year ago. The shift makes sense, as he couldn't deliver what was asked of him as a full-time starter. Look for Finley to play 15-20 minutes a game this year, but his per-minute output shouldn't change much. He'll still shoot 40 percent on 3s and never turn the ball over, making him useful in that role. If it doesn't work out, Finley has an expiring deal worth $2.5 million that the Spurs might look to cash in at the trade deadline.
Manu Ginobili
2008-09 season: Ginobili dealt his usual brilliant play when healthy, but those moments were increasingly rare last season. He missed 41 games with an ankle injury early and a stress fracture late, and in between suddenly lost his 3-point touch, hitting only 33 percent.
By other metrics, however, he was as effective as ever, ranking fourth among shooting guards in PER and first among bench players. Ginobili's now-familiar foul-drawing antics earned him the seventh-highest free throw rate among shooting guards and he converted 88.4 percent from the stripe. Despite the wayward 3-point stroke, he ranked third at his position in true shooting percentage. He proved beastly on the glass, too -- his defensive rebound rate and overall rebound rate both finished second among shooting guards. His nose for the ball seemed as active as ever, with 2.17 steals per 40 minutes.
Finally, Ginobili set a new career mark by hitting 65.5 percent of his shots in the immediate basket area. He'd hovered in the mid-50s the past several years and his mark last season was nearly the best among perimeter players (see Andre Igoudala comment). For a guy who rarely showed up 100 percent healthy, it was a heck of a year.
Scouting report: A crafty left-hander who specializes in sudden, unexpected changes of direction, Ginobili's circuitous drives to the basket constantly get him to the free throw line. He ably creates contact and shot-fakes defenders into fouls, something he embellishes with well-documented flair. His drives also allow him to create shots for the Spurs' spot-up shooters, though he called his own number more often last season.
Ginobili has evolved into a very good pull-up 3-point shooter off the dribble -- he shoots a set shot rather than jumping, but if his defender goes behind the screen on a pick-and-roll, he'll get it off. His stroke came off from distance last season but he nailed 38.6 percent over the past five years, so opponents need to respect his long-range threat.
Defensively, Ginobili has fantastic anticipation off the ball and plucks steals, and he rebounds as well as any guard in the league. He's not a particularly good on-ball defender, though, and big wings overpower him on the blocks. Fortunately, the Spurs rarely ask a lot from him on this end to conserve his energy for offense.
2009-10 outlook: Ginobili turned 32 in July, and his collision-heavy playing style doesn't offer a great prescription for longevity. Given how well he played in his rare moments in the lineup last year, the more immediate worry for San Antonio isn't that he'll decline, but that he simply won't be on the court enough to make a big impact. Even when he's healthy, the Spurs play him only around 28 minutes a game to reduce the wear and tear.
Presuming he can make it on the court for 65 games or so, Ginobili has a great shot at reclaiming the Sixth Man award. Even if his numbers diminish a bit due to age, he's likely to lead all reserves in PER, and few players can score better than a point every two minutes while shooting as efficiently as he does.
Of note, however, is the fact Ginobili has an expiring deal worth $10.7 million and will be an unrestricted free agent after the season. The Spurs can sign him to an extension before the season starts, but they probably want to see how he holds up physically before committing.
Marcus Haislip
2009-10 outlook: A "re-import" from Europe and a former first-round pick of the Milwaukee Bucks who flamed out badly, Haislip signed with San Antonio hoping to re-establish himself as an energy player off the Spurs' bench. He's always been a tweener and isn't a great outside shooter, but the hope is that he can make up for it with defense, effort plays and transition finishes. Based on his translated European stats, I'm highly skeptical he can pull it off.
George Hill
2008-09 season: He's not quite a point guard and not quite a shooting guard, but Hill is a basketball player of some kind. His rookie campaign was strong enough that the Spurs will use him in some capacity much more in future seasons.
Hill is athletic and long-armed, which translated into two very strong stats -- he placed seventh among point guards in rebound rate and seventh in blocked shots. However, he was far too aggressive and committed a foul every 8.5 minutes; only two point guards fouled more often.
Right now his shooting tops the list of concerns. Hill shot 27.8 percent on long 2s, one of the worst performances in the league, and 29.2 percent on shots away from the basket. He managed a bit better on 3s (32.9 percent), shot well in the basket area and drew a high rate of fouls, but without a consistent J, he'll always have trouble scoring.
Scouting report: Hill stands 6-foot-3 with long arms and defends well at either backcourt spot. His height may prevent him from becoming a true wing stopper, but he could prove suffocating as a full-time point guard. He's still learning what he can do against pros, as evidenced by his hyper aggressiveness in pressuring the ball during his rookie year, but the talent is undeniable.
However, he can't showcase his defense without a defined offensive role. Hill can finish at the basket because of his length, but he doesn't shoot consistently or run the point with great skill -- his pure point rating ranked 60th out of 69 point guards. He needs to be able to execute one or the other to serve as more than an intriguing role player.
2009-10 outlook: While Hill will likely play the majority of backup point guard minutes behind Tony Parker, on numerous occasions he'll spot up off the ball while Manu Ginobili plays "point forward." Rookie guards with high turnover rates often make tremendous progress in their second season, and with the glimpses of ability Hill provided, he may join those who take a major step forward. That probably won't change his playing time outlook much for 2009-10 given the star-studded San Antonio backcourt, but this year may well determine the trajectory of what comes afterward.
Richard Jefferson
2008-09 season: Jefferson's shooting percentage won't elicit any raves, but he drew so many fouls that he scored effectively and the 82 games he played were a notable exception on a Bucks squad that dropped like flies all around him. The impact of those injuries is evident in Jefferson's splits -- he switched from averaging 12 shots a game in December to 18 in March, and his second-half scoring average increased by more than five points.
For the year Jefferson ranked eighth among small forwards in free throw attempts per field goal attempt, and he finished in the top third of small forwards in true shooting percentage, turnover ratio and PER. He endured his third straight disappointing season as a rebounder and at this point it's safe to say the board numbers he put up in New Jersey are a thing of the past. Otherwise, his value held up quite well.
Jefferson hadn't shot the 3-pointer well until last season, when he shot it more than ever and marked a career-best 39.7 percent. Of particular significance was his 45.8 percent mark on corner 3s, the sixth-best mark in the league among players with at least 100 attempts (ironically the man he was traded for, Bobby Simmons of New Jersey, was fifth). We'll talk a little more about the importance of those corner 3s below.
Scouting report: Jefferson is an athletic wing who likes to attack the basket, especially going to his right from the right side, and because of his size and explosion near the rim, he's very effective at drawing fouls. He neither dribbles cleverly nor sees the floor well, mostly relying on straight, hard drives rather than any deception. Jefferson also excels at running the break along the right wing as a finisher and has become a more consistent outside shooter in recent years.
Jefferson focused more on defense in Milwaukee after taking the year off with the Nets a year earlier, though he'll bail on his rebounding responsibilities to leak out on the break. He does a good job one-on-one and opponents rarely try to post him up or isolate against him, but he's not as enthusiastic about chasing opponents through screens or helping on the weak side.
2009-10 outlook: The Bucks unloaded the $32 million left on Jefferson's deal by trading him to San Antonio, where he'll provide a dose of energy to a weary veteran squad that leaned too heavily on its three stars. Of note is his newfound ability to hit corner 3s, because historically the Spurs spot up their small forwards in the corner more than any team in the league. If his numbers from a year ago hold up, he can be a real weapon from that spot, punishing opponents who focus in too much on the Spurs' star trio.
He'll start at small forward and is highly unlikely to achieve the same per-game averages because he'll consume fewer shots. But he hasn't missed a game in two years and should provide an effective minutes sponge for a team that badly needs one. Meanwhile, he'll boost his shooting percentage back into the high 40s thanks to a better quality of looks.
Ian Mahinmi
2008-09 season: This was supposed to be Mahinmi's big crack at a spot in the rotation, but an ankle problem sidelined him nearly the entire year so the opportunity went by the wayside. He played only 23 minutes for the parent club and one game for Austin in the D-League.
Scouting report: An energy big man drafted as a project out of France, Mahinmi doesn't have a lot of game experience but put up very strong numbers in the D-League two years ago, providing an encouraging glimpse of his potential. He'll be 23 the opening week of the season and at 6-foot-11, 230 pounds with good athleticism, there's hope he can become a rotation player.
2009-10 outlook: Mahinmi will compete for minutes in a much more crowded frontcourt than a year ago, but Gregg Popovich shuttles in so many big guys in most games that Mahinmi is bound to get an opportunity sooner or later. However, he'll first need to prove the ankle is healthy and shake off the cobwebs.
Roger Mason
2008-09 season: The free-agent pickup established himself as one of the league's top outside shooters, especially in late game situations. Mason shot 42.9 percent on 3s while taking nearly half his shots from out there and hit 89 percent from the line, both career highs, while hitting several game-winning shots in his first season in Texas.
Despite those glaring positives, he really wasn't that good. Even with all the 3s, his true shooting percentage was muted, because he virtually never got to the basket. Long 2s and 3s comprised 82.9 percent of his shots; among players with at least 500 shot attempts, only Eddie House, Daequan Cook and Mike Bibby wandered into the paint less often. Throw in average to below-average numbers in the other categories, and even a 30-minute role stretched him despite his excellent shooting. In the end, 40 shooting guards finished with a better PER than Mason did, and his defense was subpar, as well.
Scouting report: In addition to shooting very well off the catch, Mason also can hit off the dribble going left or right and knows how to use screens to free his jump shot. He's a decent dribbler who can move to the point (and often did last season) but has limited quickness so he rarely penetrates inside. When he does, he experiences trouble finishing due to a lack of explosion.
Mason is a mediocre defender, with decent strength and intensity but somewhat slow feet and limited jumping ability. He's a conservative defender who posted the third-lowest rate of steals among shooting guards and won't beat himself, but he's nobody's idea of a wing stopper and small, quick guys blaze past him when he moves to the point.
2009-10 outlook: Mason will probably start games again but is highly unlikely to finish them with Manu Ginobili back in the mix and Richard Jefferson's arrival. George Hill will likely claim some of the minutes Mason enjoyed as a backup point guard, too, leaving Mason with a 20-minute role as a wing reserve and zone-buster. That's more in keeping with his skill level, and if he shoots like he did last year, he'll solidify that bench slot. But if he's playing 30 minutes a night again, it's a bad sign because he isn't that caliber of player.
Antonio McDyess
2008-09 season: McDyess made one of the most egregious miscalculations in recent history, taking a severe pay cut to return to a Detroit team that failed to win a playoff game instead of joining the Nuggets for their run to the Western Conference Finals. The one month layoff seemed to set him back at first, but he rallied with a vengeance late in the season. McDyess averaged a double-double with better than 50 percent shooting from Feb. 1 on, the second time in three years he's put up absolutely monstrous numbers in the second half after being mediocre at best in the first.
McDyess rarely shoots at the basket anymore unless it's a putback; all he does now is face up from the top of the key or the left elbow. He led the league, in fact, in the proportion of his shots from the left side (see Richard Hamilton comment). Of his 2-point shot attempts, 74.1 percent were away from the basket and 61.9 percent were long 2s; he led the league in both categories among players with at least 100 shot attempts (see chart). His rate of long 2s was particularly amazing, as only a handful of players took half as many of their shots from that range.
The good news is that he drained all those Js. McDyess' 47.4 percent mark on long 2s rated fourth in the NBA and his 51 percent mark on straight-on attempts led the league. And because he was just catching and shooting, he rarely turned the ball over, ranking second among centers in turnover rate.
Finally, he crashed the boards despite setting up outside. He set a career high in rebound rate, ranking ninth among centers.
Scouting report: He was 34 years old last year, but it was hard to find anything wrong with McDyess' game. Although he suffered knee problems earlier in his career, he's projected a picture of health the last several years and offset a loss in explosiveness by refining his jump shot and defensive fundamentals.
McDyess loves to set up for pick-and-pop plays at the high post or left elbow, and he possesses range out to 18 feet. He can pass from up there, as well, and will post up on the left block against smaller defenders -- to shoot a face-up jumper. Even though he sets up out high, he crashes the boards and remains fairly athletic for his size, in addition to having a solid build.
McDyess can play both frontcourt positions but center is a challenge for him, as his play with the Pistons demonstrated to everyone's satisfaction last season. At 6-foot-9 he gives up too many inches to big centers and isn't enough of an intimidator to affect opponent shots at the rim. The Pistons' overall malaise last season probably didn't help his enthusiasm for the job, but Detroit gave up 5.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court. He performs better against power forwards, especially traditional post-up 4s. The ones who shoot 3s challenge his mobility and pull him away from his preferred perch under the rim.
2009-10 outlook: McDyess signed with San Antonio on a three-year deal for the midlevel with a partially guaranteed third season. Since McDyess has said he wants to play only two more years, this effectively offers him a golden parachute in year 3.
He'll start at power forward alongside Tim Duncan, (though he'll be listed at center in order not to hurt Tim's feelings), and while he'll have trouble matching last year's rebounding numbers, he'll likely regain some of his enthusiasm for defending and shot-blocking in a more competitive environment. His knack for high-post shooting should make him a perfect fit with Duncan offensively. Lastly, expect him to start slowly since much like his new team, he has a longstanding track record of rapidly gaining steam after the All-Star break.
Tony Parker
2008-09 season: With Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan both hurting and nobody else on the roster capable of creating their own shot, the Spurs basically made Parker the entire offense in the second half of the season. He responded by averaging 24.5 points, 7.3 assists and shooting 55 percent the final two months of the season, but the strain eventually took its toll -- he visibly ran out of gas in the playoffs against Dallas from the strain of having to do it all himself.
Parker led all point guards in usage rate and was fourth in the league overall, and he created quality shots, too. His 50.6 percent shooting led all point guards, he was 15th in true shooting percentage despite seldom taking 3s, and he generated the ninth-lowest turnover ratio among point guards.
For a little guard, his ability to get in the paint stands unrivaled. More than half his shot attempts came in the immediate basket area and he converted 59.7 percent. He also shot long 2s better than ever, making 45.5 percent of them, but he continues to be a reluctant long-range shooter. Parker launched only 65 3-pointers on the season and made just 19; he's offered up fewer than one a game each of the past four seasons.
Scouting report: Parker annoys purists because he drives to score rather than to pass, but he's a one-man layup machine with outstanding quickness going to either side and a real knack for finishing at the basket. Parker rarely draws fouls despite constantly going to the rim, but he has an array of floaters, flips and head fakes that he uses to keep defenders off balance and finish at the basket. He's a great finisher in transition, too, though he's almost always coming in by himself while his older teammates huff and puff behind him.
Parker turns the ball over remarkably little for somebody who goes to the basket so much, but as a passer he sticks mostly to the simple stuff -- kickouts when he's covered, swings around the perimeter and the like. You'll rarely see him zip a dazzler between defenders for an easy bucket. Defenders used to go behind the screen when he ran the pick-and-roll and dare him to shoot, but he's become a good midrange shooter -- especially to his left. Now they have to respect him there, opening even more driving lanes.
Parker is an above-average defender -- though he doesn't play with great intensity, he's quick and is bigger than he looks. He's a low-risk defender who rarely gambles and doesn't pilfer many steals. However, his effort slackened last season when he had to carry so much weight at the offensive end.
2009-10 outlook: The Spurs won't repeat the Tony-on-five offense they ran at the end of last season, and Parker is unlikely to shoot as well on long 2s even if they do. Add it all up and it's improbable he'll match last year's output. Additionally, he's a quick guard entering his later 20s, which is a danger zone for this type of player.
Sum it up and it's more realistic to expect his 2007-08 output -- roughly 19 points and six assists with 50 percent shooting and a PER right around 20. That still makes him one of the league's top point guards and probably puts him on the All-Star team, but probability dictates that last year will prove the high-water mark for his individual stats.