48MoH: The End of the Roster

[Samr]

Richard Jefferson asserted himself as a full-fledged member of the Spurs last night. He gave Spurs fans a taste of the exotic during last night’s game by receiving a pass in the corner and blowing past his man for an at-the-rim finish. It’s been awhile since San Antonio crowds have witnessed such athleticism from their small forward. The early returns from San Antonio’s offseason makeover show every sign of living up to promise. It’s amazing how much the additions of Richard Jefferson and Antonio McDyess have opened up the offense.

Things are less settled at the end of the bench, where the Spurs must carefully deliberate their options. They have more talent in camp than at any other point of the Duncan-era. So the challenge before Gregg Popovich is not deciding whether or not Malik Hairston is an NBA player. Hairston is obviously deserving of a spot on someone’s roster. The challenge is weighing his talent against the big backdrop questions of team needs, the salary cap, and projecting the roster forward. With those things in mind, here are my mid-camp thoughts about the end of the bench:

link to the rest (http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/10/15/the-end-of-the-roster/)

It's a pretty quick read, and a really good take. We're nearing the end of pre-season and it'll be interesting to see what the Spurs ultimately decide to do.


I'm going to side with the authors here -- roll the dice, try to cut loose either Bogans or Haislip (as much as I like the guy, and see what you can do with both Marcus Williams and Hairston. This season is about a lot more than this season for those guys, the Toros, and their fans.

[Shifty]

I feel like the youngsters should be a priority here. The roster is so deep right now that keeping veterans at the end of the bench makes little sense if it means letting go of younger, more talented players with higher ceilings. Unless Bogans has some hidden attractive or Pop knows his shooting will get better, there is no reasons to keep him around. As for the number of players, the same logic applies: We have several players on their last year of their contracts so we need to develop their replacements now that we have them and not start looking for them next year so they can be ready not for another 2 or 3.

[anakha]

For the salary-educated, between Haislip and Bogans, which player will cause less of a cap hit if waived?

[DPG21920]

Haislip has the lower salary I believe, but I am not sure what portion of Bogan's salary would be paid by the league (if any at all.)

[Manufan909]

NBA.com’s highlight package of the Spurs-Clippers game was actually helpful. Marcus Williams makes no less than three solid plays in the package, and we know from the play-by-play that he also hit a critical three pointer in the final minute of play. Williams is starting to showcase his point forward skills and the reason why his knowledge of the system is such a valuable asset. Unfortunately, that portion of the preseason which sees Popovich doling out heavy minutes to hopefuls is dwindling. Setting aside contract guarantees, Williams and Bogans are fighting for the 15th roster spot, with Malik Hairston having firmly secured a spot on the team. But money is money, and there is no guarantee that the Spurs will keep 15 men. It’s still an uphill climb for Williams.


I don't like how he implies that Malik is the guaranteed 14th man. As far as I know, Holt won't let Pop waive Bogans or Haislip so Hairston and Williams can make the team. If they both really show something over these last few games, and Bogans can't up his FG% to at least 30, I'd love to see him cut so two inexpensive noobs can make it. And hopefully Pop lets all the young guys get solid minutes on b2bs. Tim and Manu are going to leave 25 minutes or more unspoken for for a handful of games, and I hope Pop doesn't give the older guys those minutes, but players like Ian, Hairston, and Williams.

And is it me, or is MW making a case for himself? Don't get me wrong, Hairston is obviously the better player in damn near every way, but if Bogans was not in the picture, I think both could make the team, assuming MW plays better over the last few games. For anyone who saw the game, did MW look solid on D at all? Since timvp comments on his slow feet every few days, I'm assuming he would have to be very smart on D to be effective.

P.S. The part about Ian guarding Shaq is ludicrous. Putting Blair or Bonner on him would make more sense, for crying out loud. Not to mention Theo. But if Pop wants to unleash Ian on upper-level bigs like he did Hill on upper-level guards last season, why not?

[CGD]

Haislip has the lower salary I believe, but I am not sure what portion of Bogan's salary would be paid by the league (if any at all.)

Might be a sill luxury tax question:

Hypothetically, if the Spurs waive Bogans or Hailslip tomorrow, is the amount of that guaranteed deal subject to luxury tax treatment (i.e., double payment)?

[all_heart]

I hope Haislip makes the cut, he has potential that needs to be developed. If we can get him going he may be able to guard LO or Dirk.. possibly. I get the feeling Bogans is going be another Ime.

[xtremesteven33]

Hairston and Mahinmi are the obvious choices to make the team...anything else and I will really be dissapointed....

[greyforest]

They have more talent in camp than at any other point of the Duncan-era.

oh hell no, spurs had a RIDICULOUS bench back in the day.

[DBMethos]

oh hell no, spurs had a RIDICULOUS bench back in the day.

Seeing that post alongside your avatar made me picture Kurt Thomas saying that. :lol

[Manufan909]

I hope Haislip makes the cut, he has potential that needs to be developed. If we can get him going he may be able to guard LO or Dirk.. possibly. I get the feeling Bogans is going be another Ime.

If he has never been known for D, Idk how you think he could do any better on Dirk than Bonner can. He might be faster and have a longer reach, but Bonner knows the star bigs of the league relatively well after playing them this past season. I just hope Haislip can play the 3, and allow Pop to attack, and not just react for a change.

[HarlemHeat37]

Haislip has looked significantly worse than Bonner defensively so far in preseason, and especially overall..

Obviously I'm a big Hairston fan, and I really hope he makes the team..I'm not getting my hopes up though..he easily makes the roster on the majority of the teams in the NBA IMO..his problem is that he's competing on an elite team that values experience, which is part of the reason they went up and prematurely signed Keith Bogans..there are a number of guys that are already on NBA roster or will make NBA rosters going into the season, and Hairston outplayed a lot of them last NBA season and in this year's Summer League, some of them by a significant margin..

I like the idea of having Ian starting next to Duncan..his game will receive a significant boost by playing with Duncan and Parker..I also like the idea of having him play against a guy like Shaq..there's nobody bigger that you can play against, and it would be a good experience..

[coyotes_geek]

For the salary-educated, between Haislip and Bogans, which player will cause less of a cap hit if waived?

They're the same. Both are on league minimum contracts, so there's no difference to the Spurs in terms of salary that they have to pay or luxury tax. Bogans is getting a little more money due to his years of experience, but that's being paid by the league so the Spurs aren't on the hook for it.

[Bruno]

I've liked what Pop did in 2007 with Udrih/Vaughn. He gave the minutes to the question mark player at the start of the season and when he saw he sucked, he went back with the known quantity.

The Hairston/Bogans situation could (should?) be manged the same way. Give some regular season minutes to Malik and after an extended try, Pop could decided what to do with him(cut him, continue to give him minutes or send him to Austin).

I also think it's important that Pop gives a chance to one of Haislip and Mahinmi. Duncan, McDyess, Bonner, Blair and Ratliff don't have the tools to defend players like Dirk or Odom. Having a quick big in the rotation will be important in some matchups.

[Bruno]

Both are on league minimum contracts, so there's no difference to the Spurs in terms of salary that they have to pay or luxury tax.

To be exact, Haislip cost $30K more in salary and $30K more in tax than Bogans.

[coyotes_geek]

I hope Haislip makes the cut, he has potential that needs to be developed. If we can get him going he may be able to guard LO or Dirk.. possibly. I get the feeling Bogans is going be another Ime.

Haislip is already 28, soon to be 29, so I'm not sure how much more potential there is left in him to develop. Odds are that what you see right now is what you're going to get. Sure, if he makes the cut he should be more productive as he gets more familiar with the system, but at his age we shouldn't be expecting some kind of significant developmental leap.

[jjktkk]

oh hell no, spurs had a RIDICULOUS bench back in the day.Exactly when back in the day? I've beena Spurs fan since 76 and I can't remember when the Spurs have had this much talent 1 thru 15.

[coyotes_geek]

To be exact, Haislip cost $30K more in salary and $30K more in tax than Bogans.

Haislip is here on a vet min contract, right? If he is, then both he and Bogans should be exactly the same, i.e. hitting cap & tax at the rate of a 2yr vet min player.

[Bruno]

Haislip is here on a vet min contract, right? If he is, then both he and Bogans should be exactly the same, i.e. hitting cap & tax at the rate of a 2yr vet min player.

Haislip has signed a 2 years min contract.
The league pays a part of the salary and the luxury is reduced for players only on a 1 year or less min contract.

[coyotes_geek]

Haislip has signed a 2 years min contract.
The league pays a part of the salary and the luxury is reduced for players only on a 1 year or less min contract.

Just caught that. Thanks.

[Thompson]

He could be right about Haislip needing to adapt to the system, actually; the training camp notes from multiple days the past week or so mentioned the coaches were really impressed with Haislip.

I don't know whether or not he'll ever nail the system down or not (Elson seemed to have a few problems with it, for example), but hopefully he improves as he works it out.

[Solid D]

I think the Spurs should waive Bogans, Williams, Jerrells and if a PG is released from another team who is quick enough to defend CP3, Brooks, Nash, etc. in case of TP injury...then add him. Haislip is expendable. That is, unless Bonner can be moved.

[HarlemHeat37]

I don't know..logic based on financial aspects says that they won't cut either of them, but having 7 big men is a pretty high amount IMO, especially the way the league is going right now..

I think it's clear that the Spurs were also banking on Haislip playing some 3 IMO..

[Manufan909]

Wonder if Pop will start Haislip at the 3 at all this preseason, just to see if he contributes more. From what I know of him (almost nothing), he is not a paint big. He might like to drive, but setting up around the arc might be more conducive to his game.

[Chomag]

Bogans has experience yes, but thats all he has at least from what he has shown us. Having him take up a roster spot when every other player on the team has outplayed him in camp just sounds completely stupid at this point.

If all we want is experience we should go ahead and hire Magic Johnson, Larry bird, or someone else out of retirement. I heard those guys got a ton of experience.

[Spursfan 87]

the spurs should waive or trade bogans for a pick. I think that haislip is learning the system, thats why he has look lost out there, but I think that the spurs could use him. He has a lot of potential especially if he can defend guys like dirk and odom.

[barbacoataco]

I've liked what Pop did in 2007 with Udrih/Vaughn. He gave the minutes to the question mark player at the start of the season and when he saw he sucked, he went back with the known quantity.

The Hairston/Bogans situation could (should?) be manged the same way. Give some regular season minutes to Malik and after an extended try, Pop could decided what to do with him(cut him, continue to give him minutes or send him to Austin).

I also think it's important that Pop gives a chance to one of Haislip and Mahinmi. Duncan, McDyess, Bonner, Blair and Ratliff don't have the tools to defend players like Dirk or Odom. Having a quick big in the rotation will be important in some matchups.

Agree with all of that. The OP made some great observations.

Spurs need a quick big man in the worst way. Mahinmi and Haislip seem like the only options.

[tp2021]

I know he's practically as athletic as they come, but I don't think that means Ian can guard face-up bigs on the perimeter. His game to me is in the paint, even if he does have more speed than most bigmen. North-south speed doesn't matter when you're playing defense. Speed doesn't always translate to lateral quickness, even more so in a bigman.

[mountainballer]

So the challenge before Gregg Popovich is not deciding whether or not Malik Hairston is an NBA player. Hairston is obviously deserving of a spot on someone’s roster. The challenge is weighing his talent against the big backdrop questions of team needs, the salary cap, and projecting the roster forward.

I'm pretty sure all teams observe closely what moves and cuts other teams make during their camps. and teams with a deep and talented roster (like the Spurs) will be scanned even more intensive, because other teams know that they will be forced to cut some legit NBA talent. so, I can't see that Malik IS NOT on the radar of some teams. his numbers might not look impressive on first sight, but they are very very good when looking closer. especially his per40 minutes numbers for rebounds, assists and blocks are fantastic for a SG. and team will notice his very low TO rate and his good scoring efficiency and they will also scout him or watch tapes and so they will also notice his good defense.
so I really can't see that last years scenario of cutting Hairston and still keep him on the Toros could work again. if they cut him this time, he definitely will be gone forever, this time another team will steal him.
in the long run some now saved bucks might turn into a very expensive move. 2010 the Spurs will have to re sign or replace 4 of their wings. 2010-2011 Spurs will very likely still be lux tax payer. if Malik turns into a legit rotation player, who can at least competent fill the spot of the 5th wing (I absolutely have no doubt), it will be much easier for the Spurs to make their negotiations and decisions about their wings in 2010. if they keep Malik, he will be on a minimum contract till 2012. Spurs might have to pay more money on the FA market to get a similar quality player, or they might only get a weaker player for the same amount of money. if Malik even shows the potential to take the 3rd or 4th spot in the wing rotation, this will make the negotiations for a reasonable contract extension for Mason much easier. (I just assume that Manu will be re signed and he and RJ are #1 and #2 in the rotation). if you already have 3 of your 4 regular wings under contract, you are not forced to keep the 4th wing at any cost to keep a working rotation.
not that I wish that the Spurs lowball Mason, but almost 4 million per seem to be a bit to high for a player of his quality.
so, in a best case scenario for offseason 2010, Spurs could fill 2 of the 5 wing spots with minimum salary players (Malik + Bogans type signing), Mason re signs for a 2 years LLE type contract (or a Finley type contract) and Manu re signs for 2 or 3 years. Spurs would have the same talent on the wings, but for less money. and if this turns out like this, the "investment" of about 1.5 million to keep Malik might turn into a bigger return of money.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Mountainballer, your assessment makes a lot of sense but seeing that Hairston was only guaranteed 50K, he must not be too highly rated by other NBA teams just yet. This, of course, is a wild guess. Btw, do you know when his contract becomes fully guaranteed?

So, based on that, and the educated guess that the Spurs are not likely to waive anyone with a guaranteed contract or trade Fin/Mahinmi for a trade exception before the deadline, I don't think Malik is such a guarantee to make the final cut. In fact, I believe that Marcus Williams has the better chance right now because of his versatility, mainly his ability to play the point. Malik, being the 6th wing, would not play a bigger role on the team than Marcus, even though he has outplayed some of the other players in pre-season.

My idea is that unless the Spurs have caught wind that some team is seriously interested in Malik, they might waive him and get him back to Austin, until there's a slot/minutes open for him on the Spurs.

For all we know, the Spurs might not be willing to keep 15 players on the roster with guaranteed contracts ( assuming Hairston's, if kept, will become guaranteed too ). It's not out of the realm of possibility that the Spurs might pick up a vet back-up PG at some time during the season, or pick up a decent player who gets bought out later on. I think there's a very big chance that all Jerrels, Williams and Hairston get waived, with Hairston going to Austin.

[mountainballer]

Malik, being the 6th wing, would not play a bigger role on the team than Marcus, even though he has outplayed some of the other players in pre-season.

a little difference is, Malik could be sent to the Toros if he is on the Spurs roster, Marcus not.
so Marcus might be the more versatile player, but Malik would give them a bit more flexibility when thinking about role, spot and playing time.
yes, he would be the 6th wing at the beginning, but I have no doubt he could at least outplay Bogans for the role of the 5th wing. and as I tried to point out, it might be more about the investment for the 2010-11 season, when Malik could take the 4th wing spot and therefore be a pretty cost saving option.

and his contract becomes guaranteed on January 10th.

[benefactor]

Again...the Spurs are not going to eat money before the season has even started by waiving Bogans or Hailslip. They will likely give them the first part of the season to see if anything is there and trade them if things still aren't working out.

[mountainballer]

i guess none speculates that Bogans or Haislip could be waived. it's all about the question who takes the remaining 15th spot (Hairston or Williams), or if this spot will be used at all.

[ooshmay]

yes...