spursncowboys
10-17-2009, 07:56 PM
by: Chris Bowers (http://www.openleft.com/user/Chris%20Bowers)
Today, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin said (http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/63483-sen-harkin-three-ways-to-public-option) the Senate was down to three options on what sort of health care bill to send to the floor:
During a conference call hosted by the liberal activist group Families USA, Harkin indicated that Senate Democrats had narrowed their choices to a full public option, a proposal that would allow states to opt out of the program and Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-Maine) idea of creating a "trigger" that would launch a public option in any state where insurers fail to meet residents' needs. Harkin also offered an internal whip count:
The full Senate Democratic Conference met Thursday to discuss healthcare. Harkin counted 52 senators who support the public option and about five who do not.
"The vast majority of the Democratic caucus is for the public option that is in the HELP bill," Harkin said. "Should the 52 give in to the five, or should the five come along with the majority?"
Harkin's count is odd, as it only adds up to 57. There are 60 members of the Democratic Senate caucus. Still, it is very close to the count we have been running:
52 supporters sounds right: Our latest count was only at 51 (http://www.openleft.com/diary/15450/jon-tester-favors-schumers-public-option), but it is highly unlikely that Alaska freshman Mark Begich would oppose the public option. He is probably the 52nd.
Up to 7 opponents: Senators Evan Bayh, Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, Mary Landrieu, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson have all done one of the following: voted against all forms of the public option in committee, stated their opposition to the public option in the press, or told Harry Reid they are actively contemplating filibustering a health care bill with a public option. That makes seven opponents, not five.
Lieberman won't filibuster? If I had to guess, Harkin probably isn't counting Lieberman, who has said he will probably not filibuster (http://www.nhregister.com/articles/2009/10/16/news/a3-nejoe.txt):
U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, I-Conn., whose vote could be crucial to breaking an expected GOP filibuster on health care legislation, Thursday said he would consider voting to move the bill forward, even if he ultimately casts his ballot against the reform package.
Lieberman said he was "inclined to let the motion to proceed" (or cloture) go forward, but "I haven't decided yet."
Lieberman is shooting off his mouth to both get some attention and water down the bill before it reaches the floor, but in the end I will be stunned if he breaks ranks on cloture votes.
Baucus definitely won't filibuster. I would also bet that Harkin is not counting Baucus among the opponents. Baucus has stated he supports a public option (http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/7485), proposed a public option (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/17/767126/-Baucus-proposed-Medicare-style-public-option-last-November), and simply is not going to filibuster legislation that he had such a large hand in writing.
Who is #60?. The 60th Senator in this equation is Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Pryor has said he is open to a public option (http://www.arktimes.com/blogs/arkansasblog/2009/06/senators_on_public_health_plan.aspx), but doesn't think it has enough votes to pass (http://arkansasnews.com/2009/09/10/lincoln-pryor-confer-with-obama-on-health-care/). This is Democratic code for "I don't want it in the bill, but I will vote for it if it is in the bill."
With three options on the table, one dynamic to keep in mind is that all of the center-right Democratic Senators listed here often attempt to be "moderate for the sake of moderate." That is, they will reject the more left-leaning (full public option) and more right-leaning (trigger) proposals for no other reason than because those are the right-leaning and left-leaning options. That means the opt-out might be what the Senate brings to the conference committee. If the House can bring the Medicare +5% public option to the conference committee at the same time, then the public option campaign should be in a pretty good position for the final bill.
http://www.openleft.com/diary/15573/harkin-senate-down-to-three-choices
Today, Iowa Senator Tom Harkin said (http://thehill.com/homenews/senate/63483-sen-harkin-three-ways-to-public-option) the Senate was down to three options on what sort of health care bill to send to the floor:
During a conference call hosted by the liberal activist group Families USA, Harkin indicated that Senate Democrats had narrowed their choices to a full public option, a proposal that would allow states to opt out of the program and Sen. Olympia Snowe's (R-Maine) idea of creating a "trigger" that would launch a public option in any state where insurers fail to meet residents' needs. Harkin also offered an internal whip count:
The full Senate Democratic Conference met Thursday to discuss healthcare. Harkin counted 52 senators who support the public option and about five who do not.
"The vast majority of the Democratic caucus is for the public option that is in the HELP bill," Harkin said. "Should the 52 give in to the five, or should the five come along with the majority?"
Harkin's count is odd, as it only adds up to 57. There are 60 members of the Democratic Senate caucus. Still, it is very close to the count we have been running:
52 supporters sounds right: Our latest count was only at 51 (http://www.openleft.com/diary/15450/jon-tester-favors-schumers-public-option), but it is highly unlikely that Alaska freshman Mark Begich would oppose the public option. He is probably the 52nd.
Up to 7 opponents: Senators Evan Bayh, Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, Mary Landrieu, Joe Lieberman, Blanche Lincoln, and Ben Nelson have all done one of the following: voted against all forms of the public option in committee, stated their opposition to the public option in the press, or told Harry Reid they are actively contemplating filibustering a health care bill with a public option. That makes seven opponents, not five.
Lieberman won't filibuster? If I had to guess, Harkin probably isn't counting Lieberman, who has said he will probably not filibuster (http://www.nhregister.com/articles/2009/10/16/news/a3-nejoe.txt):
U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman, I-Conn., whose vote could be crucial to breaking an expected GOP filibuster on health care legislation, Thursday said he would consider voting to move the bill forward, even if he ultimately casts his ballot against the reform package.
Lieberman said he was "inclined to let the motion to proceed" (or cloture) go forward, but "I haven't decided yet."
Lieberman is shooting off his mouth to both get some attention and water down the bill before it reaches the floor, but in the end I will be stunned if he breaks ranks on cloture votes.
Baucus definitely won't filibuster. I would also bet that Harkin is not counting Baucus among the opponents. Baucus has stated he supports a public option (http://seminal.firedoglake.com/diary/7485), proposed a public option (http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/8/17/767126/-Baucus-proposed-Medicare-style-public-option-last-November), and simply is not going to filibuster legislation that he had such a large hand in writing.
Who is #60?. The 60th Senator in this equation is Mark Pryor of Arkansas. Pryor has said he is open to a public option (http://www.arktimes.com/blogs/arkansasblog/2009/06/senators_on_public_health_plan.aspx), but doesn't think it has enough votes to pass (http://arkansasnews.com/2009/09/10/lincoln-pryor-confer-with-obama-on-health-care/). This is Democratic code for "I don't want it in the bill, but I will vote for it if it is in the bill."
With three options on the table, one dynamic to keep in mind is that all of the center-right Democratic Senators listed here often attempt to be "moderate for the sake of moderate." That is, they will reject the more left-leaning (full public option) and more right-leaning (trigger) proposals for no other reason than because those are the right-leaning and left-leaning options. That means the opt-out might be what the Senate brings to the conference committee. If the House can bring the Medicare +5% public option to the conference committee at the same time, then the public option campaign should be in a pretty good position for the final bill.
http://www.openleft.com/diary/15573/harkin-senate-down-to-three-choices