48 MOH: Theo Ratliff by the Numbers

[Mel_13]

Theo Ratliff by the Numbers

There are two things to know about Theo Ratliff. The first is that he’s not durable. He’s played a (near) full season of basketball only once this decade. In the most recent two seasons, he played 26 and and 46 games, respectively.

This first set of numbers should give fans a sense of how the Spurs might use Ratliff. My best guess–my hope, really–is that Gregg Popovich plays Ratliff just enough to acclimate him to the system and keep him in game shape, but not a minute more. This will strike most of our readers, those who follow the entire league, as obvious. But I want to sharpen the focus on Ratliff by throwing another number at you.

Theo Ratliff is a potential postseason game-changer....

http://www.48minutesofhell.com/2009/10/19/theo-ratliff-by-the-numbers/#more-5033

[Riverwalkman]

Gregg Popovich plays Ratliff just enough to acclimate him to the system and keep him in game shape, but not a minute more.
I think that's good strategy on Theo. I remember Ratliff once said Pop did not force him to be hard in practice. He's injure-prone but he won't have to play too much, 10mins is enough.

[raspsa]

What kind of injuries is he susceptible to?

[mountainballer]

. Theo Ratliff’s lack of durability gives Popovich just enough of an excuse to play Ian Mahinmi or Marcus Haislip in garbage time or in back-to-back scenarios wherein Ratliff would otherwise see 8-12 minutes of playing time.

again I don't get what is so difficult to understand about the rotation numbers. the 8-12 MPG player is the #5 player in the frontcourt rotation. and this #5 player also doesn't play every game, he will very likely get about 20-30 NDP-CDs over the season.
how do you want to further reduce this workload by dividing it between 3 players AND then expect that this player can play a crucial role in the post season. that's just naive. even more considering that he doesn't have any experience with this team.
the solution is very simple: Ratliff either survives a season as a 5th man with the described workload, or he won't be a factor in the POs at all.
to think that it helps that this player plays only (let's guess) 30-40 games in the regular season and not more than about 10MPG to keep him healthy is absurd. what you get is a player, who neither has the chemistry with the team to provide the necessary impact, nor will he be in a shape that allows him to play PO intensity. not for 10 minutes and also not for a single minute.

[Mel_13]

again I don't get what is so difficult to understand about the rotation numbers. the 8-12 MPG player is the #5 player in the frontcourt rotation. and this #5 player also doesn't play every game, he will very likely get about 20-30 NDP-CDs over the season.
how do you want to further reduce this workload by dividing it between 3 players AND then expect that this player can play a crucial role in the post season. that's just naive. even more considering that he doesn't have any experience with this team.
the solution is very simple: Ratliff either survives a season as a 5th man with the described workload, or he won't be a factor in the POs at all.
to think that it helps that this player plays only (let's guess) 30-40 games in the regular season and not more than about 10MPG to keep him healthy is absurd. what you get is a player, who neither has the chemistry with the team to provide the necessary impact, nor will he be in a shape that allows him to play PO intensity. not for 10 minutes and also not for a single minute.

That's about it. For Ratliff to be effective in the playoffs, he'' need to play about 50-55 games at 10-12 mpg. 600-700 minutes in the regular season is about what he will need and probably about all he can survive.

It's also why trading Bonner without getting a PF/C in return makes no sense. There are almost 8,000 RS PF/C minutes to be allocated. With the need to monitor TD and McDyess, Ratliff's situation, and the inexperience of Blair and Ian, Bonner will have to play at least 1200-1500 minutes this year

[Bruno]

For Ratliff to be effective in the playoffs, he'' need to play about 50-55 games at 10-12 mpg.

Well, it's far from sure.

2 years ago, PJ Brown was "effective" during the playoffs while he spend most of the year without a team and played only 200 minutes in the regular season.

[Spursmania]

Good read. It will certainly be interesting to see how Pop develops the rotation throughout the season, and especially as the season winds down.

Ratliff certainly can make a difference if he stays healthy. He has to have enough playing time to remain knowledgeable and comfortable in the system while maintaining his health. A balance I am sure Pop will find for him.

[Mel_13]

Well, it's far from sure.

2 years ago, PJ Brown was "effective" during the playoffs while he spend most of the year without a team and played only 200 minutes in the regular season.

Well, everything about the Spurs PF/C rotation is far from sure.

As to PJ, he was one of the most durable bigs of his generation. He played for nearly 34000 minutes in 1089 games over 15 years, including over 6600 minutes in the three seasons preceding his year with the Celts. For him to come in, play the last 18 games of the season and then be a solid rotation player in the playoffs was one thing.

I'm not so sure Theo could pull it off. Over the same 15 years he played for nearly 20000 minutes and 751 games and less than 1100 minutes in his most recent three seasons. I think 10 mpg every other game or so over the course of the RS is more likely to have him ready when April rolls around. Just my opinion.

In any event, it will be quite interesting to see how Pop manages the minutes for the bigs as the season progresses. Like I said above, he has about 8000 minutes to allocate. Ensuring rest while winning a reasonable percentage of games will be tricky, especially when three of the players have virtually no NBA experience and one other can't be expected to play much more than 600 minutes.

[Bruno]

Well, everything about the Spurs PF/C rotation is far from sure.

As to PJ, he was one of the most durable bigs of his generation. He played for nearly 34000 minutes in 1089 games over 15 years, including over 6600 minutes in the three seasons preceding his year with the Celts. For him to come in, play the last 18 games of the season and then be a solid rotation player in the playoffs was one thing.

I'm not so sure Theo could pull it off. Over the same 15 years he played for nearly 20000 minutes and 751 games and less than 1100 minutes in his most recent three seasons. I think 10 mpg every other game or so over the course of the RS is more likely to have him ready when April rolls around. Just my opinion.


Well, I don't see where is the difference between PJ Brown and Ratliff. The fact that Brown has played more minutes in his career and has been healthier is a quite meaningless factor. That's just my opinion.

In the playoffs, Ratliff will been asked to play hard defense against some dominant bigmen. It isn't something that need a lot of skills, chemistry with teammates or to be in perfect physical shape. It's something that needs a lot of experience and Ratliff will still have that experience even if he has barely played in the regular season.

If there are some minutes available in the regular season, I rather see Pop gives them to one of Haislip or Mahinmi. When you have lost 2 times in 4 years against Dirk, it's quite crazy to have Matt Bonner as your most mobile bigman.

[Mel_13]

Well, I don't see where is the difference between PJ Brown and Ratliff. The fact that Brown has played more minutes in his career and has been healthier is a quite meaningless factor. That's just my opinion.

In the playoffs, Ratliff will been asked to play hard defense against some dominant bigmen. It isn't something that need a lot of skills, chemistry with teammates or to be in perfect physical shape. It's something that needs a lot of experience and Ratliff will still have that experience even if he has barely played in the regular season.

If there are some minutes available in the regular season, I rather see Pop gives them to one of Haislip or Mahinmi. When you have lost 2 times in 4 years against Dirk, it's quite crazy to have Matt Bonner as your most mobile bigman.

I don't see how Ratliff playing 500-600 rather than 200-300 of the 8000 available minutes will have much impact on the development of Mahinmi or Haislip. We're talking about 300 out of 8000 minutes over a period of 82 games.

If the concern is to develop one of the less experienced mobile bigs so that they are able to contribute come April, I would rather take their minutes from Bonner's 1200-1800 minutes rather than from Ratliff's 500-600.

Again, the real problem is to allocate to the 8000 minutes.

If you figure a 10% reduction in minutes for TD and McDyess and 500 minutes of smallball you have:

TD: 2300
McDyess: 2000
SmallBall: 500

That leaves 3200 minutes for Bonner, Ratliff, Ian, Blair and Haislip. That's 40 minutes a game. Pop has plenty of minutes available to develop the players who give the Spurs the best possibilities come April whether he gives Theo 300 minutes or 600 minutes.

I understand the points you have made regarding Theo's potential role in the playoffs and the number of RS minutes he will need to reach to that potential. I think he needs a bit more than you do.

We'll both watch while Pop decides.

[Bruno]

It isn't only a minute story, there is also a roster spot limitation. The active roster will only have 5 PF/C.
If you want to try to develop a player to defend against Dirk-like players, he'll need to be active when Spurs face this kind of players.

[barbacoataco]

Well, it's far from sure.

2 years ago, PJ Brown was "effective" during the playoffs while he spend most of the year without a team and played only 200 minutes in the regular season.

Agree, there have been many times when situation players made a difference in playoffs series despite limited playing time in the regular season. PJ Brown, Alonzo Mourning, and 3 pt shtrs like Steve Kerr come to mind immediately.

[Mel_13]

It isn't only a minute story, there is also a roster spot limitation. The active roster will only have 5 PF/C.
If you want to try to develop a player to defend against Dirk-like players, he'll need to be active when Spurs face this kind of players.

I understand and I agree. It's a bit of a problem if you're trying to fit 7 players into 5 active slots, but less so if it's only 6.

Now that I have stated the obvious, I'll move on to speculation. It's my feeling that Pop will decide very early in the season between Ian and Haislip as the mobile big to develop. (If Ian's option is not picked up we'll know real soon) The loser in that decision will become a candidate for some sort of tax-reducing transaction.

With only 6 bigs and 5 active slots, the problem almost disappears. Ratliff will be idle for at least 30-40 games, Tim and McDyess will have scheduled days off, and I wouldn't be surprised if Blair sat for at least 10-15 games (he's never played more than 37 games in a season and the Spurs may deem it prudent to limit his exposure to back-to-back, 4 games in 5 nights, and 5 games in 7 nights situations). Having Ian in uniform, and I am assuming that Pop chooses Ian over Haislip, for 60+ games should be quite possible.

Like I said, we'll both find out when Pop decides.

[Spurs Brazil]

It isn't only a minute story, there is also a roster spot limitation. The active roster will only have 5 PF/C.
If you want to try to develop a player to defend against Dirk-like players, he'll need to be active when Spurs face this kind of players.

We'll play the Mavs 2 times in the the first 3 weeks of the season. I want to see Mahinmi and Haislip against Dirk in those games to see how they do.

[Parker2112]

All of the above guesswork is unnecessary. IMO, Pop will divide minutes for the frontcourt reserves based on matchups, not a steady rotation. Bonner's minutes will be limited when we need to slow down scoring in the paint with Theo, and Bonner will come in when we need to spread the floor with perimiter shooting. As for Ian and Haislip, they will likely come in when he can do a better job than either of these two, or otherwise during garbage time.

If you want to break down minutes, your going to need to look at the matchups that we are going to see each game.

[Parker2112]

We'll play the Mavs 2 times in the the first 3 weeks of the season. I want to see Mahinmi and Haislip against Dirk in those games to see how they do.

Not if it sacrifices the W. Besides, Dice should be able to do a great job against Dirk. That's the matchup I want to see. Suprised I haven't heard much anticipation when it comes to Dice as an answer to Dirk.

[Mel_13]

All of the above guesswork is unnecessary. IMO, Pop will divide minutes for the frontcourt reserves based on matchups, not a steady rotation. Bonner's minutes will be limited when we need to slow down scoring in the paint with Theo, and Bonner will come in when we need to spread the floor with perimiter shooting. As for Ian and Haislip, they will likely come in when he can do a better job than either of these two, or otherwise during garbage time.

If you want to break down minutes, your going to need to look at the matchups that we are going to see each game.
:lol

You don't find it a tad bit ironic that you characterize the guesswork of others as unnecessary and then proceed to give us your guesses?

[Parker2112]

:lol

You don't find it a tad bit ironic that you characterize the guesswork of others as unnecessary and then proceed to give us your guesses.

Are you saying that to say that Pop will play the best possible matchup in a given situation is just guessing?

I KNOW that Pop won't relegate playing time to the ratios stated above when the matchups require something different. Not guesswork, it comes from knowing that the beauty of this team is that we have an answer for most all of the opposition's mathups at any given time, so long as our team stays healthy. It also comes from watching Pop over the years.

It's not guesswork at all, really.

[Mel_13]

Are you saying that to say that Pop will play the best possible matchup in a given situation is just guessing?

I KNOW that Pop won't relegate playing time to the ratios stated above when the matchups require something different. Not guesswork, it comes from knowing that the beauty of this team is that we have an answer for most all of the opposition's mathups at any given time, so long as our team stays healthy. It also comes from watching Pop over the years.

It's not guesswork at all, really.

ok

[lefty]

As long as he swats 1-3 shots away, he'll be fine

[Ed Helicopter Jones]

Ratliff, to me, is Kevin Willis 2.0. I think he's a lot more athletic than KWill, but I feel like they'll have similar roles. Ratliff is going to be asked to step in for certain matchups and do what he does best...play D. He might get a few more minutes than Willis, but I'd be surprised if he sees the floor in more than half the regular season games, even if he's uninjured.

[mountainballer]

If there are some minutes available in the regular season, I rather see Pop gives them to one of Haislip or Mahinmi. When you have lost 2 times in 4 years against Dirk, it's quite crazy to have Matt Bonner as your most mobile bigman.

wouldn't it be even more crazy, when the plan to solve the obvious problem of defending Dirk was based on either Ian or Haislip? even in a best case scenario for Ian's development, the next two seasons it seems totally exaggerated that he could be an effective Dirk defender. not even for some minutes. Dirk will eat him alive (he will have put 6 fouls on him before Ian even knows what team got the ball), to put a foul machine like Ian on a 90% FT shooter and crafty contact drawer like Dirk is about the worst defensive strategy the Spurs could choose. Dirk will let 3 point plays rain on the Spurs.
and to hope for a significant impact coming from Haislip's defense will lead to a big disappointment. there is a better chance that Bonner turns into a defensive force, than Haislip becoming a competent defender at all.

Spurs won't have a Dirk stopper. they will need to be good enough in other areas to compensate for this. Spurs also never had an Amare stopper.
we will see what Dice and a lighter Tim can do against Dirk and the best ace in the hole against him will be Richard Jefferson. if we need to hope for a crucial defensive impact from Ian or Haispil against Dirk, we will be really really in trouble.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

Are you saying that to say that Pop will play the best possible matchup in a given situation is just guessing?

I KNOW that Pop won't relegate playing time to the ratios stated above when the matchups require something different. Not guesswork, it comes from knowing that the beauty of this team is that we have an answer for most all of the opposition's mathups at any given time, so long as our team stays healthy. It also comes from watching Pop over the years.

It's not guesswork at all, really.

Well depends on how you define 'the best possible matchup', because you can be sure that some players will get some burn in certain matchups during the season just to see how well they do. It's always been like that, trying to prepare for the playoffs, so if you expect that in a regular season game against LAL, for example, Pop would play all the safe matchups all the time, you'd be wrong - we'll see a lot of tweaking, we'll probably see Mahinmi guarding Bynum, even though 'the best possible matchup' at the time would be McDyess.

Thus, Mel's minutes estimation is spot on, as Pop will most deffinitely not play the best possible matchups in a given situation for 82 games.

[Bruno]

wouldn't it be even more crazy, when the plan to solve the obvious problem of defending Dirk was based on either Ian or Haislip?

Well, you do with what you have and Spurs don't have a sure thing able to do an even decent job on Dirk.

Duncan hasn't been able to defend him for years, I don't see how McDyess would do a better job and it would be way better if RJ was used to defend Josh Howard.

Haislip has been signed to defend players like Dirk and Ian, even if you think he is a scrub, has the mobility and length to defend him. It's possible and maybe even likely that both failed at defending Dirk or at being decent NBA players but I rather give a try to one of them in November/December than giving minutes to Raliff that early in the season.

It's a no risk, high reward situation.

[kobyz]

Stephen Jackson will be great against the Dallas match up, he could play the 4 and defend Dirk!

[mountainballer]

Well, you do with what you have and Spurs don't have a sure thing able to do an even decent job on Dirk.

Duncan hasn't been able to defend him for years, I don't see how McDyess would do a better job and it would be way better if RJ was used to defend Josh Howard.

Haislip has been signed to defend players like Dirk and Ian, even if you think he is a scrub, has the mobility and length to defend him. It's possible and maybe even likely that both failed at defending Dirk or at being decent NBA players but I rather give a try to one of them in November/December than giving minutes to Raliff that early in the season.

It's a no risk, high reward situation.

I don't agree about RJ and that he needs to defend Josh Howard. if it turns out, that he does a good job defending Dirk (like other athletic SFs did before, see Posey, Sjax, Barnes), he should play the role. I know, it's always discussed as if Josh totally destroyed us last PO, but that's not accurate. in fact he wasn't even much above average, it was just that the Spurs were THAT bad, that Howards performance looked dominating.
I'm really not scared about Howard and maybe Bogans will be the best option for that job.
(btw. per design Hairston would be the perfect defender for him, he has the speed and the strength to slow Howard. but it's very unlikely he will be ready next PO, if he is with the team at all).

another point about the Mavs. again, Spurs didn't loose because some players dominated them. even Dirk didn't play well. as mentioned, outside Tony Spurs were a disaster. end of story. it's more interesting, how easy the Nuggets beat the Mavs. and other than against the Spurs, in this series Dirk did play MVP like. (despite the variety of "mobile" bigs the Nuggets had to put at him). but the Mavs didn't have a chance, their holes in the defense have been put on display by Melo and Billups. this will also be a strategy for the Spurs. (healthy) Spurs have even more weapons than last seasons Nuggets. of course they need to play defense, but it will be easier to outscore the Mavs than to outdefend them. force their many low efficiency players to shoot more than usually and Spurs will win the series on an 105-100 average.

[BG_Spurs_Fan]

I also don't understand the fascination with the Dirk stopper, we haven't got such a player,just like most other teams.Our biggest hopefulls are rookies, who in the very best case scenario would be adequate against him, but wouldn't otherwise deserve minutes on the floor. I'd go with whatever McDyess/Duncan/Bonner can do against him, he won't be the one to drag them through a 7-game series.

We have to concentrate on the boards, not allowing them to penetrate as much as they have against us and let them shoot jumpers, which they gladly do,and not too efficiently. We don't need a Dirk stopper or a Howard stopper to beat them, although I think RJ would do a decent job against either of them.

[Bruno]

I don't agree about RJ and that he needs to defend Josh Howard. if it turns out, that he does a good job defending Dirk (like other athletic SFs did before, see Posey, Sjax, Barnes), he should play the role. I know, it's always discussed as if Josh totally destroyed us last PO, but that's not accurate. in fact he wasn't even much above average, it was just that the Spurs were THAT bad, that Howards performance looked dominating.
I'm really not scared about Howard and maybe Bogans will be the best option for that job.
(btw. per design Hairston would be the perfect defender for him, he has the speed and the strength to slow Howard. but it's very unlikely he will be ready next PO, if he is with the team at all).

another point about the Mavs. again, Spurs didn't loose because some players dominated them. even Dirk didn't play well. as mentioned, outside Tony Spurs were a disaster. end of story. it's more interesting, how easy the Nuggets beat the Mavs. and other than against the Spurs, in this series Dirk did play MVP like. (despite the variety of "mobile" bigs the Nuggets had to put at him). but the Mavs didn't have a chance, their holes in the defense have been put on display by Melo and Billups. this will also be a strategy for the Spurs. (healthy) Spurs have even more weapons than last seasons Nuggets. of course they need to play defense, but it will be easier to outscore the Mavs than to outdefend them. force their many low efficiency players to shoot more than usually and Spurs will win the series on an 105-100 average.

Well if you play RJ at the 4, you are going to suffer rebounding-wise, even more than Mavs have added great rebounders in Marion and Gooden.

I'm also quite lost on how you have changed your stance on the need of a player to defend mobile PF compared to sooner in the offseason: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3594553&postcount=224

[mountainballer]

Well if you play RJ at the 4, you are going to suffer rebounding-wise, even more than Mavs have added great rebounders in Marion and Gooden.

I'm also quite lost on how you have changed your stance on the need of a player to defend mobile PF compared to sooner in the offseason: http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/showpost.php?p=3594553&postcount=224

jesus, you really go thru my posts for months to find a somehow compromising statement to use against me instead of backing up your position?
please, don't let us go thru this again, just because we will never agree on Ian, it's not worth the time and energy.
however, thanks for excavate this post of mine: how did I have changed my position???????
back then (in July, when further moves by the Spurs were not out of any possibility) I stated, that a mobile defensive big would be a welcome help. and back then I also claimed that neither Ian nor Haislip will be this solution.
when did I change this opinion???????????? please keep it above the belt!
today, 3 months later and in a situation when further moves are pretty unlikely for some months, I go with what you said:
Well, you do with what you have
I just thought about the options this current roster gives us. we don't need to agree about it and very likely Pop will go a third direction anyhow.

[benefactor]

I agree with mountainballer. There is really no need to worry much about a Dirk stopper because as long as the team defense gets back to being more Spurs-like they will be fine. On paper, the potential playoff matchup with the Mavs this year looks a lot like the matchup with the Suns from years past....and we all saw how that turned out.

[Bruno]

jesus, you really go thru my posts for months to find a somehow compromising statement to use against me instead of backing up your position?
please, don't let us go thru this again, just because we will never agree on Ian, it's not worth the time and energy.


Krishna, you are paranoid. I'm not digging through your posts for months, I just remembered you pushing hard for Spurs to get Nocioni/Gomes and I did a little research.

I don't think where is the need to back up my position. I'm just saying that Spurs have a weakness when it come to defend against combo forward, something you said months ago.

And I disagree when you said that Dirk and Howard aren't Spurs' killer. I also disagree when you said that Spurs can beat Mavs by playing like Denver. Spurs don't have a pure scorer as great as Melo to do that.

And it isn't all about Ian. There is also Haislip.

[Mel_13]

There is also Haislip.

During Haislip's time in Europe did you ever have the chance to see him play in person or on television? If you have, I would be interested in reading your estimation of his basketball skills. Most folks here have only seen his youtube videos and are trying to draw conclusions about his abilities from a bunch of dunks.

I know it is a small sample size and I am no expert, but I have seen every minute he has played at the ATT center this preseason and I am convinced that he won't play any more than Sean Marks, James White, or Jackie Butler. He was overwhelmed on the defensive end by Rob Kurz, his 3pt shot from NBA distance can best described as a 'heave', and his ball-handling is simply atrocious. I think he is what is, a professional basketball player who can make a living in Europe but is not quite good enough to stick in the NBA.

I have much, much more optimism that Ian can develop into a useful player. In that same small sample size you can see flashes of NBA-level abilities.

[z0sa]

Ratliff stays on the bench except when we require an injection of D.

[mountainballer]

I don't think where is the need to back up my position. I'm just saying that Spurs have a weakness when it come to defend against combo forward, something you said months ago.


so let's agree on this. and I didn't change my position on this. when I doubt that Ian or Haislip could be transformed into the combo defender, I don't say that the Spurs wouldn't need such a player at all. this issue could be solved if we get a player, who can play this role. (with the exception of RJ, who might come close. not that I think they should force him into the combo forward role).

I guess we will also agree that we won't see any trades before December 15th and very likely not before February deadline. if they feel that the combo defender is still the major issue, they will react. Nocioni will be available I assume, Gomes likely not. maybe even Najera becomes an option again, if he shows he is not done yet. Nets will love to get rid of him to increase their cap space 2010. (question is, do the Spurs want to pay this kind of money for such a player)

[Bruno]

During Haislip's time in Europe did you ever have the chance to see him play in person or on television? If you have, I would be interested in reading your estimation of his basketball skills. Most folks here have only seen his youtube videos and are trying to draw conclusions about his abilities from a bunch of dunks.

I know it is a small sample size and I am no expert, but I have seen every minute he has played at the ATT center this preseason and I am convinced that he won't play any more than Sean Marks, James White, or Jackie Butler. He was overwhelmed on the defensive end by Rob Kurz, his 3pt shot from NBA distance can best described as a 'heave', and his ball-handling is simply atrocious. I think he is what is, a professional basketball player who can make a living in Europe but is not quite good enough to stick in the NBA.


I have seen a couple of times of TV and he hasn't left me a great impression so I won't be able to give you a report about him.

Haislip was a very good offensive player in Europe. His offensive game was mainly based on shooting 3's and on his superior athleticism. With the 3 point line being further in NBA and players being more athletic than in Europe, Haislip will have a way harder time to score in NBA. To find a place in NBA, he has to do a huge transition to turn into an energy guy that plays good defense. I don't know if he will be able to do that transition but struggling to defend Rob Kurz isn't surely a good sign.

[Blackjack]

It's almost frightening how often I find agreement with mountainballer; it's almost as if he's in my dome.:lol

There's no doubt that it'd be beneficial to have a competent player to match up with the Dirk's of the world, but I just can't see how Mahinmi or Haislip would be the answer.

Mahinmi isn't the coordinated, under control and highly-intelligent player he needs to be to have a chance against someone like Nowitzki. He may have the size and athleticism but he lacks the discipline, know-how and respect of the officials to stay on the court and out of foul trouble. I don't completely discount the possibility that he could get by for a stretch on Dirk and do a decent job, but it would be the exception and not the rule. The best hope with Ian would be that he could use his knack for getting to the free-throw line against Dirk. Ian attacking Dirk on offense might actually be better than anything he can do defensively.

With Haislip, it just seems like the old: 'Leopards can't change their spots.' adage. He's got all the tools that'd you'd want in a defender for perimeter-4's, but he lacks the mentality and grit; not toughness, but grit. From what I've been able to see, he gives ground too easy in the post, he's undisciplined with the pump-fake, and doesn't possess great timing when contesting shots on the ball. He'll give you a spectacular block from time-to-time, on account of his great physical talent, but I've seen really no indication that he'd give the Spurs legitimately good to solid defense against the better players they hoped he'd be able to guard. He's a great physical talent but I have a hard time believing that a guy nearing 30 and having never established himself in the NBA, is all of a sudden going to change his spots and progress enough to contribute this year.

I'm not against letting both of them have their shot at proving me wrong during the regular season, frankly, I'd love to be wrong, I just seriously have my doubts.

If the Spurs are the Spurs, they'll be fine. I understand Mavs fans gloating and wanting to claim dominance over the Spurs, they've got to have something to feel good about, but I just don't understand the Spurs fans that feel their team is incapable of beating the Mavs.

The fact of the matter is, the matchup has never been that lop-sided one way or the other.

Before '06 the season, the games and season-series were always close. In '03 the Spurs prevailed against a nightmare matchup, the Mavs suffering a very inopportune injury, and the Mavs prevailed in '06 and '09 when the Spurs had the inopportune injuries.

The Mavs have been a really good team for a while now, they've just never been great. I'd argue they haven't been a better team than the Spurs at any time this decade; the Spurs were the favorite each time but they were they were close enough, in terms of how they matched up, that injury and extenuating circumstance could sway the outcome; as it did in '06 and, to a lesser extent, '09.

*Cheap-shot alert*

The Mavs wouldn't have even got by the Suns in '06 had Amar'e been healthy. And the Suns, not the Heat, would be housing that championship banner. I thought the Mavs were the third-best team in the league that year, all things being equal. The Heat proved me wrong; turns out they were fourth. -- Yeah, I said it. :hat --

The Spurs have never had a more talented team than they currently have, even if Duncan isn't quite as dominant, and if they're healthy and playing their best, or close to their best, ball at the right time..

The Mavs will provide nothing more than a respectable showing, in a losing effort.

[lefty]

Ratliff, to me, is Kevin Willis 2.0. I think he's a lot more athletic than KWill, but I feel like they'll have similar roles. Ratliff is going to be asked to step in for certain matchups and do what he does best...play D. He might get a few more minutes than Willis, but I'd be surprised if he sees the floor in more than half the regular season games, even if he's uninjured.
Willis was better offensively though

[peskypesky]

ratliff, to me, is kevin willis 2.0. I think he's a lot more athletic than kwill, but i feel like they'll have similar roles. Ratliff is going to be asked to step in for certain matchups and do what he does best...play d. He might get a few more minutes than willis, but i'd be surprised if he sees the floor in more than half the regular season games, even if he's uninjured.

qft