Hurricane Ivan...

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

looks like this bad boy has a damn good chance of making it into the Gulf...as strong as it is now it could be the storm of the century if it happens...the water in the gulf is still DAMN hot with lots of energy to spare...

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200409.gif

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

hehehe...If that baby stays south Cuba/Guantanamo Bay could get torn a new asshole...that terrorist holding camp could be a very nasty place to be...If the eye holds together it could be a category 5+ when it hits Cuba...

awwwwwwww....

start expecting the sob stories of US "abuse" of the prisoners because of the hurricane...

[Shelly]

Bid on this now! (http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040907/ap_on_fe_st/frances_merchandise_5)
Wind From Hurricane for Sale on eBay

Tue Sep 7, 7:45 AM ET

By RACHEL LA CORTE, Associated Press Writer

MIAMI - For anyone who didn't get enough of Hurricane Frances as it blew through Florida, remnants of the storm are for sale.


Reuters
Slideshow: Hurricanes & Tropical Storms




More than 170 items were listed on eBay's Internet auction site Monday, a day after the eye of the Category 2 storm came ashore.


The starting bid for Tupperware filled with wind was a penny. Photos showed Broward County residents running around with the containers "catching" the wind. Surprisingly, someone had already bid $10 for one of the four containers.


Somebody had bid $6.99 for beach sand a Broward County surfer had collected. Three Frances survivors had bid 15 cents each to have a woman pray for them.


One-cent vials of rain that fell in Orlando as the storm passed over had no bids. Neither did a woman's offer to sell the T-shirt she wore during the storm, nor did the request by a Longwood resident for someone to help get a large oak tree off of the seller's home and car.


"Winning bidder will receive branches, leaves, sticks, stumps, whatever you would like!" ... What a conversation piece! ... You can own a part of meteoroligical (sic) history!"


Carol Baroudi, industry analyst and author of The Internet For Dummies, said "I think these are all tongue in cheek. I don't think anyone's serious about these things. I think it's trying to find a sense of humor, which is a good thing."


Ebay has canceled auctions that coincide with tragedies, such as items billed as debris from the space shuttle Columbia or pieces of the World Trade Center and Pentagon (news - web sites).


Ebay officials did not return a phone call seeking comment about the Frances auctions.


When Hurricane Charley tore through southwest Florida, causing 27 deaths and billions of dollars in damages, the same type of auctions popped up. Pieces of damaged homes, signs and bottled rain all made it to eBay.


"It's a different kind of thing," Baroudi said. "So far I don't think it's crossed the line of totally tasteless. I don't see anybody being victimized by this stuff. I've seen a lot of positive stuff here."


But some people in the path of Frances didn't find the humor in the various auctions. The storm damaged homes and businesses and at least four people were killed.


"This is a disaster," said 77-year-old Gloria Aragona, who was evacuated with her husband from their Palm Bay mobile home. "It's nothing to make money on."

[bigzak25]

damn...people will buy anything.....

by the looks of that projected path, at least puerto rico gets a break.....

[Useruser666]

AP - Disney World Orlando, will be adding a new theme based ride dubbed "The Hurricane". Guests to Disney World can place a $50 deposit to take a spin on the ride. The ride consists of a large field just off the beach, where riders sit on their own lawn chair and ride out the natural forces of a hurricane up close. The deposit is of course for the chair. A special waiver is signed by each guest to be eligible for the ride, which holds Disney free from liability for the rider's safety. Every rider who, errr, is found after the ride ends and can return their lawn chair gets a "I rode and survived THE HURRICANE!" Tee-shirt.

Useruser666 :eyebrow

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

daaaamn...this bad boy is still barreling west...If he holds this track today I don't see any way it doesn't make it in to the gulf...most of you guys aren't old enough to remember a bad one getting into that hot gulf water this time of the year...I remember the aftermath of Carla as a kid...I saw ocean going freighters and shrimp boats laying on their side out in farmers fields...another one went up the Rio Grande Valley in the 50's...they had just built Falcon Lake and the Corp of Engineers had projected it would take 5 years to fill...it filled completely in 36 hours and was going over the spillway...if they hadn't just built that dam it would have washed away every town in the Rio Grande Valley...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html

hmmmmm...the image won't link but here is the link...BTW, this is the best weather/hurricane tracking site on the net by far...

www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409.html)

[MannyIsGod]

i doubt it'll be a catagory 4 much less a catagory 5 when it hits the united states.

at this time of year the flow over the us is a much stronger one out of the west, and the hurricane will inevitably get caught up in a trough which will steer it north east.

this will also weaken the hurricane.

i doubt the hurricane will even reach catagory 5 status, and i doubt it will last at the current catagory 4 status. the energy required and the air conditions required so sustain that kind of strength just do not last very long at all.

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

You may be right about it getting steered by a trough to the north and east but if it gets into the gulf all bets are off...I just checked NDBC data on a buoy stationed 180 miles south of Louisiana...water temperature is over 87 degrees...there is plenty of energy out there to blow that big boy up...

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/us_sf.gif

there is a big low behind Francis moving north but there is also a huge low over the central US...I see nothing there to stop it from coming right up the pipe into the gulf...

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/us_jt.gif

also...the jet stream is so far north right now it is a non-factor...it has absolutely no effect in the gulf right now...

looks like the setup for the perfect storm to me...

[MannyIsGod]

cosmic, i'm not sure how much of a weather nerd you are, but i'm a huge one.

water tempature is a factor, but not the only factor. upper level winds play as much of a factor as the water tempature does. there is a trough over the gulf right now, which would steer the storm to the east. however, at it's earliest it'll be days before the storm reaches the gulf so the current situation really means jack shit.

if anyone should be worried, it should be florida, because i would count on this bad boy hitting it. it'll probably go over cuba and jamica first however, so there's no way it'll be a major storm when it hits florida. however, even a weak hurricane is more than that state can handle right now.

book it, no way in hell that storm gets to texas. almost as small a chance of it hitting louisiana, but i still think thats possible.

[SAmikeyp]

book it, no way in hell that storm gets to texas

--Isaac Cline
Galveston 1900.

[CosmicCowboyXXX]

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 08, 2004



today has been a historic day for the department of Commerce/
National oceanic atmopheric administration/National Weather
Service/National Hurricane Center. The president of the United
States visited the facilities at Miami Florida.

A reconnaissance plane just penetrated the eye of the hurricane and
reported a minimum pressure of 947 mb. Satellite images indicate
that the hurricane continues to be well-organized with a distinct
eye...surrounded completely by very deep convection. The outflow is
excellent outflow. Initial intensity remains at 120 knots. It
appears that Ivan is overcoming the shear and heading toward a more
favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment for strengthening.
After crossing Cuba...the shear is forecast to increase and the
ocean is not as warm. Therefore some weakening is possible.
However...Ivan is expected to remain a very dangerous Hurricane.

Ivan has been moving toward the west-northwest and is now moving
295 degrees at 15 knots. As indicated in the previous forecast...
during the next 24 to 48 hours...the subtropical ridge to the north
of Ivan is expected to change little...keeping Ivan on a
west-northwest track. Thereafter...the ridge is forecast to weaken
and a broad mid-level trough will likely become established over
the Gulf of Mexico. This pattern should steer the hurricane on a
northwest and north-northwest track with a decrease in forward
speed. It must be re-emphasized that the forecast track beyond 72
hours continues to be highly uncertain since steering currents are
forecast to be weak and not well-defined in the forecast models.
The spread in the models continues in the latest 12z run. Some
models bring Ivan over Florida and another group move the
hurricane toward the Gulf of Mexico. There is no apparent reason to
favor one scenario over the other at this time. Therefore...the
official forecast remains near the global model consensus and
presumes that there will be enough ridging to keep the hurricane on
a northwest to north-northwest track... bringing dangerous Ivan
over western Cuba in 4 days and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico by
day five.

Manny, I am not a weather geek per se but I have followed hurricanes for a long time...all I know is that when and if that bad boy gets into the gulf someone is gonna catch hell...and the longer it stays south the more likely it won't be Florida...

[SAmikeyp]

I am quite the weather geek and have followed hurricanes for years as well much like you, CC. You are right bro...If I were to venture a guess...I would say Alabama or Mississippi.

[MannyIsGod]

i hadn't caught the latest forcast discussion, but i just dont' see the ridge's holding up long enough for it to come anywhere near lousiana or texas.

i'll concede bama and gon might want to be afraid though, but in the end that bitch is going to hit florida. if i had to bet, i'd say florida is going to get it up the ass yet again.

[SAmikeyp]

If that thing stays as nasty as it is and it hit New Orleans...damn. Half of that city is below sea level.


Manny...did you know who Isaac Cline was?

[SpursWoman]

In September of 1900, a major hurricane came ashore at Galveston, Texas. Thousands died, and it remains the worst natural disaster in US history. This book provides a broad, sweeping background to that event, the author seeing in what led up to it and what followed signs of the times as well as a simple historical reckoning.
The Weather Bureau of the time was even more defensive than it is now, and with good reason: they weren't very good at forecasting the weather. Isaac Kline, their man in Galveston, was one of their best, and he even believed that his adopted city was topographically safe from such a disaster. Meanwhile, the Bureau stifled the native Cuban forecasters, who had many years of experience in predicting hurricanes. The result is almost an Aristotelian tragedy, as the hubris of Kline and his agency lead to disaster.

Larson provides a background on numerous levels. The most straightforward one would be (and is) the Weather Bureau itself, which had just undergone a major reorganization and cleanup in response to massive corruption found in the local field offices. (One meteorologist filed all his observations for the week on Monday and took the rest of the week off; another turned his office into a photographic studio and took nude photographs of women; still others had to make his observations at the pawn shop because he'd hocked the equipment for gambling debts.) Now tightly controlled, the Bureau would be as good or as bad as the man in charge. Moore, however, is an autocratic leader who wants to centralize control and seems to see promising subordinates, like Kline, as rivals.

Another background is on Kline himself, a disciplined, ambitious man, trained to the weather service and eager to make a name for himself. Given charge of the entire Texas region, he works hard to meet the demands of his job.

Then there's Galveston, at the time an up-and-coming city, fighting with Houston for the privilege of being the major western port on the Gulf of Mexico while being one of the fastest-growing cities in the country between 1890 and 1900.
There are also the people of Galveston, and Larson picks out a few citizens, seemingly no one special, to describe in detail.

Finally, there are hurricanes in general. Forming in the Atlantic or the Gulf from causes only roughly understood, they are among the most formidable forces in nature. Even today, as Larson relates, we do not understand why one tropical wave dissipates while another turns into Hurricane Andrew.

The hurricane of 1900 in fact formed well out in the Atlantic, passing over Cuba on its way to the Gulf. The Weather Bureau confidently predicted that the storm would turn north and in fact issued warnings to North Atlantic fishermen of the approaching storm. Even when this error was realized, the storm was not considered to be significant. The Cuban weathermen, meanwhile, somehow recognized that this storm would be a major one, but, being natives, they were not listened to. (Even after the disaster, there were those at the Bureau who insisted that the Cuban storm and the Texas one were totally separate.)

The stage is set for the disaster itself, which Larson relates in agonizing detail. He describes the ships at sea that encounter the storm, as well as Isaac himself walking along the beach and realizing that something is approaching. The winds blow, the waves rise, the sea comes to blanket Galveston as the townspeople first fight to save their property and then to save their lives. Eventually, the town is devastated and thousands are dead. Larson describes the spread of bodies and the horrifying cleanup afterwards.

Though Isaac is chastened at that point, Moore at the Weather Bureau blithely takes credit for warning of the oncoming hurricane, even though the only warning authorized is for high winds.

[SAmikeyp]

Well done, SW.

There was a great program about him on the History Channel. Some of the stories about the people who died are especially heartbreaking. Like the story about the nuns and the kids at the orphanage.



another turned his office into a photographic studio and took nude photographs of women
God Bless Texas. :spin

[CrazyOne]

Alright, the betting tables are open... pick your spot on the coast and lay your bets.

Um.. that's all the gambling lingo I know.. anybody want to pick up the idea from here?

[timvp]

For the record ... is "bad boy" a scientific term?

[IcemanCometh]

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2004/images/ivan090704-1945z.jpg

[lyrical murderer aka ethereal mc]

The rain here is horrid.. give me more motivation to move.


KaigenNova (http://www.soundshare.tk)