ESPN All-Decline Team (Insider) [Archive]

Fdawg07

10-30-2009, 05:00 PM

The NBA is something of a zero-sum game: For some players to improve, it means that an equal number of players must get worse. So it only follows that in the wake of my All-Breakout Team (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=PERDiem-091028) earlier this week, we have to bring up the more unpleasant topic of which players are likely to see their output decline.
Thanks to injuries, a couple of examples are really obvious: Yao Ming (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1722) and Leon Powe (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3023) spring to mind, for instance. That's not quite what we're after here, however. I'm going to introduce you to 16 players who were active on opening day, but nonetheless are extremely likely to see their numbers drop a notch or two from a season ago.
The envelopes please:
Group I: The Fluke Rule players

In a good season, I can build half my All-Decline Team from this group alone. Alas, this season there are only two players the Fluke Rule applies to, instead of the usual six or seven. For those who don't know, the Fluke Rule applies to any player 28 or older whose PER jumps by more than three points in a single season. On average, his PER drops by nearly three points the following season, with more than 90 percent of such players seeing a drop of some kind.

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Przybilla
Joel Przybilla (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=682), Blazers: Przybilla shot 62.5 percent last season, easily besting his career high (59.8); at one point he was shooting 84 percent last season. Clearly, he will have a hard time maintaining that number. A couple other factors also bode poorly for him. First, Greg Oden (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3225) took his job as the starter. Second, Przybilla led the league in rebound rate last season with a career-high 22.8 mark. While that's a positive looking backward, it isn't looking forward; that number, as with almost any league-leading total, is a lot more likely to go down than up.
Shaquille O'Neal (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=614), Cavaliers: Setting aside the awfulness of Cleveland's first two games, Shaq has several factors working against him. He shot 59.5 percent from the line last season, his best mark in six years. And given how often he gets to the stripe, a drop back to his long-term average of around 50 percent would take a bite out of his numbers. His 62.3 true shooting percentage was a career-high, too, and spikes in that category usually return to earth a year later. Shaq is also 37, of course, and no longer has Phoenix's expert trainers to prop him up.
Group II: Let's see you do that again

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Salmons
John Salmons (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1726), Bulls: He blew away all of his career bests last season, but Salmons' shooting marks from last season look fishy to me. He hit 41 percent of his 3s and 42.9 percent of his long 2-pointers -- after making only 32.5 percent in the latter category in the previous four seasons. While he certainly has improved his stroke, I have a very hard time believing he's the elite-caliber shooter he appeared to be last season, especially given his line-drive delivery.
Troy Murphy (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1013), Pacers: Few people outside of Indianapolis realize what a season Murphy had in 2008-09: He hit 45 percent on 3s, good for third in the league, and led all power forwards in defensive rebound rate. At age 28, it was the definition of a career year. Bravo to him for that, but here's the downside: Both numbers vastly exceeded his career norms, and he faces long odds on matching them this season.
Jameer Nelson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2439), Magic: Orlando's point man and locker-room leader has a bright future ahead of him, but I'm skeptical that he'll ever shoot as well as he did a season ago from midrange. Nelson shot 54.5 percent on long 2s, leading the league by a comfortable margin, and shot 56 percent on any 2 away from the basket -- a category in which no other player in basketball topped 50 percent. Nelson won't top 50 percent on either this time around, and that will take his other numbers down a peg.

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Nene
Nene, Nuggets: Staying healthy for the first time since Columbus landed, Nene blew up with a 60.4 percent mark from the field and spiked it with a career-best 72.3 percent from the line. Overall, his 64.5 TS% ranked third in the league and was a sharp improvement from his career norms in the high 50s. Needless to say, I am skeptical he can keep it up and suspect his shooting marks will revert to something more in line with his career averages; Thursday night's 2-for-7 from the floor and 3-for-8 from the line provide additional support in this regard.
Flip Murray, Bobcats: Murray's basic M.O. is that he shoots just about every time he gets the ball, and as long as he makes shots, that's a good thing. The problem is that every year of his career he had a TS% below 50 … until last season with Atlanta, when everything magically clicked and he posted a 54.3 TS%. He also crushed his previous career high by hitting 36 percent of his 3s. I'm dubious he can repeat that effort at age 30, especially with a change of scenery in the offseason.
Group III: Second-half sliders

I'm always suspicious of players whose numbers drop off after midseason, and in each of these cases I have a couple other reasons to worry.

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Harris
Devin Harris (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=2382), Nets: Harris is a heck of a player and may make the All-Star team again, but I'm not sure he's quite as good as he looked in the first half of last season when he averaged nearly 10 free throw attempts a game and was firing in two-handed set shots from his own backcourt. The biggest worry is the pounding he takes on his drives to the basket: His numbers tailed off pretty dramatically at the end of last season partly due to his injuries, and he has been banged up again this preseason.
Zydrunas Ilgauskas (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=362), Cavs: Ilgauskas seemed to age in dog years toward the end of last season, particularly in the playoffs, and his indicators were already pointing downward at age 34. He takes half as many inside shots as he did three years ago, and he virtually never gets to the line anymore. Throw in the adjustment to coming off the bench -- it's not easy getting those old bones warmed up, which is why most players perform better as starters -- and his numbers are likely to decline.
Tim Duncan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=215), Spurs: Duncan finished fifth in the league in PER last season despite his dramatic tail-off due to knee problems over the final two months. Even a wide-eyed Spurs optimist would concede he'll have a tough time landing in the top five again this season, as he'll have a tough time recording his usual output in blocks and rebounds. While he grabbed 16 boards Thursday night, all the offensive boards Joakim Noah (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=3224) got at his expense weren't a good omen.
I don't want to overstate things -- he'll still make the All-Star team and be the Spurs' go-to guy for long stretches -- but I'm expecting a bit less dominance than we have become accustomed to in past seasons.
Group IV: What goes up must come down

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Terry
Jason Terry (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=841), Mavs: A small, speedy guard, at age 32, coming off a season in which he scored dramatically more often than the rest of his career, makes for a darned good bet for regression. Terry averaged 23.7 points per 40 minutes last season; his previous three seasons were in the 19s. He also shot 48.8 percent on long 2s, another number that is nearly certain to decline this season -- most players, even sweet-shooting guards, are around 40 percent in this category.
LeBron James (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1966), Cavs: Understand that James could win the MVP award this season and still put up worse numbers than he did in 2008-09. He was that good last season, so good that the only direction he can go is down. Last season was one of the all-time great seasons by an NBA player; in the post-merger era only Michael Jordan (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=1035) has recorded a better PER than James' 31.76, and His Airness just barely beat it.
So, in all probability, James' output will dip a bit. Another datum points in that direction too -- my research indicates big wing players tend to peak early. James is about the biggest wing to ever play the game, and while he's only 24 he's put a lot of miles on his body in his first six pro seasons.
Group V: A little long in the tooth

These guys didn't fit neatly into any of the above categories, but they're in their early 30s and will be hard-pressed to match their performances from a season ago.

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McDyess
Antonio McDyess (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=530), Spurs: McDyess was an absolute monster in the second half of last season, about the only positive on a Pistons team that was going nowhere. However, two factors point against him this season. First, he had a monstrous performance on the boards last season, with a career-high 19.3 rebound rate. Playing next to Tim Duncan is likely going to take a chunk out of those numbers this season.
Second, he's become almost exclusively a midrange jump shooter, taking a bigger chunk of his shots from that range than any player in basketball last season. He shot extremely well from that range, making 47.4 percent -- the fourth-best mark in the league. He's going to have a very difficult time matching that accuracy this season, however. As a result, both his rebounds and shooting percentage are likely to drop.
Stephen Jackson (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=378), Warriors: Even before all the trade demands, Jackson was a good decline candidate: He's 31, he's coming off a career-high season in PER and his team is a dysfunctional mess. But what really puts his candidacy over the top is the potential for a trade to another team. Jackson's per-game averages look superficially impressive because he plays nearly 40 minute a game for the league's fastest-paced team; if he goes anywhere else, some serious air will be let out of his inflated numbers.
Mike Bibby (http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/profile?playerId=61), Hawks: Pick an indicator, any indicator: Bibby is 31, the Hawks acquired two players who can play his position, he had his best 2-point shooting mark in five years last season, and only two players shot at the rim less often in 2008-09. He's become a specialist, basically, shooting 3s and otherwise staying out of the way, and he's going to have a very hard time matching last season's output even if he keeps raining 3s.